Zac Harmon 🌈 @Zprtr1 Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Zac Harmon 🌈

9 months

FINAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS🚨 PA Supreme Court: (D) McCaffrey by 4% Kentucky Gov: (D) Beshear wins by 4% MS Gov: (R) Reeves wins by 2% VA Leg: House: 52-48 D & Senate: 22-18 D NJ Leg: House: 50-30 D Senate: 25-15 D OH Issue 1: Wins by 10 OH Issue 2: Wins by 16

3

2

31

Last Seen Profiles

@D3BB1EZZ

@tributal0990

@braden_a_d

@breketeConnect

@llv2y

@kazuki_matsuiwa

@JDear_chen21

@ChipTownFC

@Colectuitero

@centre_literacy

@a1varo_lopez

@factskolpacino

@asleepyheadfolk

@Ieb_1

@juliemalbogat

@Macchi00

@amazonnews

@ThisCatThough

@e9sr0Nsvto3sQnz

@PayAngeIina

@stw_pdg

@bprest

@GSLise

@guclu_numan

@goodbyegirl1012

@galmazg1

@qplaylearn

@oballhatchet

@carterjfulcher

@DuranJT13

@nui_oshigoto

@sercoplusminus

@prajkta2406

@HarshC__

@kiwipxrker

@elmira_503

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

Biden literally has close to 150 field offices open across every swing state Trump still has 0 field offices open & seems to be instead spending his campaign resources on lawyers to challenge the final results on Nov 5 Doesn’t sound like a campaign that’s confident they’ll win

Axios

@axios

2 months

Former President Trump's team is more focused so far on building a sprawling network of "election integrity" lawyers and poll watchers than on rounding up organizers and door knockers to reach voters.

70

144

339

98

561

3K

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

So Biden passes (checks notes) the largest climate law in world history and the Sunrise Movement is withholding their endorsement? Just astonishing. It seems to be these so-called “progressives” are not very good at actually being progressive

Axios

@axios

2 months

SCOOP: The Sunrise Movement, a national organization of young progressives that helped Biden shape his 2020 climate agenda, is withholding its endorsement of him.

220

59

225

51

274

2K

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

2024 Progressive agenda -universal pre-k -$17/hr minimum wage -overtime pay guarantee -7% income cap childcare -Social Security expansion by closing tax loopholes -adding dental, vision and hearingbenefits to Medicare -renter protections -PRO Act Basically what’s left of BBB 👍🏼

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

3 months

SCOOP: House progressives release an agenda for 2025, with ideas for Biden to excite the base Progressive Caucus agenda is economics focused, heavy on wages/costs. It doubles as political advice for Biden. "We have to excite our base," says @RepJayapal

143

127

583

81

212

2K

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Comparisons of national polls taken in Jan/Feb to ones taken in March so far: Emerson +1 Trump—> +2 Biden (RV) TIPP +2 Trump—-> +2 Biden (RV) Ipsos +0 (tied)—-> +2 Biden (A/RV) KFF +4 Trump—-> +3 Biden (RV) Civiqs +0 (tied)—-> +1 Biden (RV) FAU +4 Trump—-> + 2 Biden (LV)

49

269

1K

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Trump only raised ~$3 million from small-donors in January 24’. Just horrific numbers To compare, Biden raised $10 million from small donors in one day (March 8)

Brian Schwartz

@schwartzbCNBC

4 months

NEW: Donald Trump has been facing two threats at once- a lack of engagement from small dollar donors and little interest at the moment from wealthier donors. Despite the recruitment effort,some GOP donors are not doing much to help Trump,at least for now

238

625

2K

30

325

1K

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

6 months

No joke. This is by far the best thing Biden could do to earn good will amongst Nevada voters in 2024 No campaign ad is better than the image of a U.S. President visibly standing in solidarity with the striking workers of that state

NewsWire

@NewsWire_US

6 months

BIDEN WEIGHING JOINING LAS VEGAS HOTEL WORKERS IF THEY GO ON STRIKE MONDAY -UNION CHIEF

22

66

618

19

177

1K

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

This is why I’m bullish on Georgia for Biden I applied the 2016-2020 shifts for each respective county in the ATL metro: Ex Gwinnett +12 D, Fulton +5 D, Cobb +12 D And I applied a 10 pt rightward shift in every other county in the state Biden still wins GA by ~1.23% (+60,914)

Isthmus Politics 🥥🌴

@IsthmusPol

2 months

I know this isn't the best comparison, but this is another top reason I don't think Trump has a chance in Minnesota, even if you shifted every county that's red on this map 15% to the right, Biden still wins the state.

9

7

126

75

122

1K

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

🚨 BIG NEWS 🚨 Biden is implementing a Part 2 to his actions on border security/immigration The executive order will grant a federal pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants married to American citizens. This affects 750k-800k people in the country (mostly Latinos)

Manu Raju

@mkraju

2 months

“Estimates put the number of people who could be directly affected at 750,000 to 800,000, with a reverberating effect among spouses, children, extended family and friends — and predominantly Latinos. … This could amount to the federal government’s biggest relief program since”

27

109

335

43

282

1K

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

After combing thru a ton of news articles, here’s what I could compile on campaign infrastructure from both the Biden & Trump campaigns. Pretty stark If anyone wants to add any info I missed let me know

66

203

1K

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

Arizona voters disapprove of the AZ Supreme Court decision banning abortions 66-30 (-36). Indies disapprove (-39) AZ Republicans don’t even realize the magnitude of what they have done

Polling USA

@USA_Polling

3 months

Americans strongly oppose Arizona's 1864 abortion ban Only Republicans are split on the issue

16

83

1K

23

173

936

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Biden Approval Rating - American Research Group 2023 December 37-57 (-20) 2024 January 40-54 (-14) 2024 February 43-51 (-7) 2024 March 46-50 (-4) You cannot tell me there isn’t a trend

Political Polls

@Politics_Polls

4 months

Biden Job Approval Among adults (1,100): Approve 46% Disapprove 50% . Among registered voters (1,004): Approve 46% Disapprove 50% American Research Group 3/17-20

50

37

329

40

132

901

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Polling: “Black voters are swinging 20 points to the right!!!!” Black voters in actual elections:

49

112

828

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Holy shit. Biden is spending 19x more than Trump currently: $142.5 million to $7.4 million

Domenico Montanaro

@DomenicoNPR

4 months

Since Super Tuesday, Democrats are DOMINATING in presidential campaign ads -- $142.5 million to $7.4 million, per @AdImpact_Pol . That's not a typo and Team Trump is only spending $2.5 million. Could be why you're seeing headlines about Biden gaining in swing states. Full data:

19

86

443

85

96

819

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

11 days

There have been six polls conducted or partially conducted after Trump’s attempted assassination on 07/13 Four of them show swings towards Biden

Chris D. Jackson

@ChrisDJackson

11 days

LOL even the right wing Harris poll is trending to Biden now.

22

191

701

13

268

726

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

22 days

🧵 Listen folks. I’m gonna try and sober ya’ll up from the dooming hangover this past week based on high-quality data Despite the overall 2.6 pt swing to Trump in the past 11 days, the pres race is still largely unchanged post-debate You must think I lost my mind. But no 1/

46

185

637

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Hey guys. My father & best friend just passed away from his 10-year fight with cancer. He’s my hero, my biggest cheerleader and I am so proud to have spent 29 years with him as his son. Everything about me I owe to this man. I love you dad ❤️

99

17

594

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Is this the year Bacon finally gets fried? Tony Vargas (D) 46% (+3) Don Bacon (R) 43% GSG Group, Feb. 20-25, 500 LV

Nebraska Examiner

@NE_Examiner

4 months

Internal polling in the #NE02 U.S. House race shows a tight likely general election race between Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas and Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb. From @asanderford :

13

21

118

17

39

554

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

1 year

Ron DeSantis’ campaign is imploding. A swing of 13 points *against* you in 4 months is horrific for a candidate and deservedly so. So far, there’s nothing showing how he can stop the bleeding. The more people get to know DeSantis the worse it gets

27

54

523

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

5 months

The United States has successfully brokered a 6-week ceasefire between Israel & Hamas. The Biden administration has finally done it

Hamas denies agreeing to US proposal for Gaza ceasefire

The White House urged Hamas terrorists in Gaza to release women, elderly and wounded hostages and accept a temporary ceasefire.

www.jpost.com

17

167

508

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

5 months

Haley primary voters are breaking for Biden 63-27 👀 The recalled 2020 vote for this group was 52-36

Emerson College Polling

@EmersonPolling

5 months

NATIONAL POLL 2024 Presidential Election 45% Trump 45% Biden 10% undecided With undecided push: 51% Biden 49% Trump

61

122

622

11

90

486

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

NV 2024 Senate Race: Lean D Jacky Rosen fundraising: Q4 $3.2 million COH $10.6 million Sam Brown fundraising: Q4 $1.85 million COH $1.73 million H2H Polling: Rosen has led every poll

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

4 months

New @CookPolitical : #NVSEN Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) moves from Lean D to Toss Up. Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor :

121

109

531

20

53

478

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

11 days

Correct. Something is indeed brewing in the Texas Senate race 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼 Of all the successive polls taken of the race Collin Allred has improved in every single one of them

Zach

@_znk11

11 days

👁️ something is brewing in TX.

2

9

81

20

54

481

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

1 month

Hey guys. I compiled a list of candidate filings for state-legislative seats by party in competitive states Dems are fielding more candidates than Republicans in AZ, FL, MN, MI, NC, NV, OH, PA, & WI. All listed state Dem parties have more fundraising this cycle too (except FL)

34

158

467

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

Dems are going on offense in a lot of state chambers this cycle Seats needed to flip: AZ House 31-29 GOP (2 seats) AZ Senate 16-14 GOP (2 seats) NH House 199-196 R (5 seats) NH Senate 14-10 R (3 seats) PA Senate 28-22 (4 seats) WI House 64-35 R (16 seats)

Axios

@axios

2 months

SCOOP: Democratic groups are launching a multimillion-dollar effort this week to flip or hold state legislative chambers in: • Arizona • Michigan • New Hampshire • Pennsylvania • Wisconsin

36

226

800

16

76

462

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Biden’s best poll in Michigan in awhile Biden 42% (+3) Trump 39% Slotkin is doing well too beating all of her R challengers by 4-7 pts

InteractivePolls

@IAPolls2022

4 months

📊 MICHIGAN GE: @BullfinchGroup 🟦 Biden 42% 🟥 Trump 39% 🟪 Other 14% — Senate 🟦 Slotkin 42% 🟥 Meijer 38% . 🟦 Slotkin 43% 🟥 Amash 36% . 🟦 Slotkin 45% 🟥 Rogers 38% — Generic Ballot 🟦 DEM 43% 🟥 GOP 38% — @Independent_Cen | 3/29-4/3 | 600 RV

122

276

1K

26

46

432

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

21 days

Brian, you have no idea what the fuck you are talking about Post debate: Joe Biden Dem support (high quality) NYT/Siena 91-5 YouGov/CBS 96-4 Reuters/Ipsos 81-4 Suffolk 85-3 CNN/SSRS 91-6

Brian Stelter

@brianstelter

22 days

Biden's core problem is not with the media or the donors or the activists, it's with base voters

697

53

366

16

103

423

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

The Texas GOP is going complete christo-fascist & neo-Jim Crow with their new party platform They probably see the writing on the wall that they don’t have much time until Texas becomes competitive

Texas Tribune

@TexasTribune

2 months

Proposed Texas GOP platform calls for the Bible in schools, electoral changes that would lock Democrats out of statewide office.

261

957

1K

16

148

402

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

22 days

Biden is staying in the race—full stop Each day we waste dithering on replacing Biden is another day lost of where we could’ve kept assembling a winning coalition and defeat Trump again Not much has changed & not all hope is lost. Take the L from last week & get to work 7/

15

99

398

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

1 year

It seems like the Utah Supreme Court is leaning towards the plaintiffs. If that happens, current 4-0 R gerrymander would become a 3-1 R map. +1 for House Democrats

Ben McAdams Memorial Acct

@purrtah

1 year

League of Women Voters and Better Utah is taking this as a very good sign. We may very well be back

0

3

93

8

45

372

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

@WakeUp2Politics @lxeagle17 AOC has turned out to be a rare talent in Congress. From a scrappy and loud progressive who wanted to overthrow the system in her first term to a now a more measured and “work within the system” type politician is a really remarkable thing to see. Good for her and us frankly

38

20

368

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

12 days

First poll fully taken after Trump’s attempted assassination Biden *gained* by 1 point It’s Morning Consult so take it with a grain of salt but no “sympathy bump” at least from this survey

Political Polls

@Politics_Polls

12 days

2024 National GE: Trump 46% (+1) Biden 45% . Trump 46% (+1) Harris 45% . @MorningConsult , 2,045 RV, 7/15

30

37

263

8

48

339

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

1 month

Yep. In June, Biden has been making strong inroads with independents to the point where he is now winning them in more high-quality surveys than Trump

Dr. John R. Samuelsen

@JohnRSamuelsen

1 month

We've been consistently seeing Biden doing much better with independent voters in many polls in June so far. What has been kind of weird is that some that show him doing better with indies than their previous poll show him losing support overall.

5

11

105

13

54

335

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

Boom! The first Dem-lead in the Maryland Senate race and the results actually make sense. Alsobrooks +9 Trone +10 I knew that reality would eventually set in on this race

InteractivePolls

@IAPolls2022

3 months

📊 MARYLAND POLL [Commissioned by pro-Alsobrooks Group] Senate 🟦 Alsobrooks 46% (+9) 🟥 Hogan 37% . 🟦 Trone 47% (+10) 🟥 Hogan 37% — President 🟦 Biden 60% (+28) 🟥 Trump 32% — • @emilyslist (D) | @ppppolls • n=719 | May 6-7 | MoE: ±3.7%

48

58

336

19

33

334

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

>Some national Democrats believe they have a better chance in North Carolina this year than they do in Georgia, which Biden won in 2020, the New York Times reports. Not sure I agree tbh. GA is much more gettable than NC given the clear pathway to reassemble the 20’ coalition

Axios

@axios

5 months

The Biden campaign is ramping up North Carolina staff while launching a multimillion-dollar ad buy. Obama lost the state by about 2 percentage points in 2012, and Trump won it in both 2016 and 2020 elections.

13

66

303

28

14

330

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

12 days

Trump’s polling share in 2020 today was: ~41.2% Trump’s polling share today is: ~42.4%

Xela

@RegnisXela

12 days

Trump, ceiling. Ceiling, trump.

3

6

91

9

49

317

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

5 months

Independents in High-Quality Polls:(past two weeks) NYT/Siena +4 Biden (LV) Quinnipiac +2 Biden (RV) Fox News +8 Biden (RV) Ipsos/Reuters +5 Biden (A)

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

5 months

NYT/Siena Poll: Indies With registered indies’, their favorable view of Biden was -21 & Trump at -11. They both tied at 42-42 in voter choice With likely voter indies, their favorable view of Biden was -16 & Trump at -12 Biden wins indies 45-41 (+4) I feel like this important

6

9

48

20

67

312

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

22 days

So many Dems think that Biden can’t recover from this and it’s simply not true. Yes, Biden has work to do after last week But that doesn’t mean it’s not salvageable. Voters are NOT BREAKING FOR TRUMP. His vote share is still poor and the anti-Trump coalition is still there 6/

6

91

304

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

7 months

Annual GDP growth under Biden: 2021 + 5.7% 2022 + 2.1% 2023 + 2.4% (estimated) 2024 + 2.1% (Goldman Sachs forecast) These numbers represent a near-dream scenario for any president especially after a devastating pandemic. It’s now up to Biden and his team to sell it

4

15

293

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

RFK Jr’s favorability rating is officially negative In just 11 months his overall favorability has nosedived by 30 points mainly being fueled by Democrats souring on him

24

48

278

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

10 days

Wow. A stunning shift of events in favor of Ukraine This is the first step towards them retaking Crimea

Tristan Snell

@TristanSnell

10 days

BREAKING: Russia concedes defeat in Black Sea, withdraws remaining fleet in retreat from Crimea, over to the east end of the Sea in Abkhazia (part of Georgia that Russia invaded and illegally holds). Ukraine has WON the naval war for the Black Sea. Next stop: liberating Crimea

1K

10K

39K

1

65

283

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

7 months

This is without a doubt, one of the dumbest and most blatantly incorrect takes I’ve ever seen on this platform. Like I don’t understand his reasoning with this take. Just completely ignore electoral data???

Taylor D. Morgan

@taylordmorgan

7 months

No, Utah has NOT "shifted left." Yes, several thousand Utah Republicans (like me) voted for Biden instead of Trump in 2020. But that one, very unique, election outcome isn't reflective of any larger trend in Utah. Real data, such as voter affiliation and share of elected offices,

122

14

106

11

6

266

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

11 months

The ineptitude to have let this happen is actually pretty impressive

16

8

255

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

New Marist/PBS National H2H poll • +1 swing towards Biden from March • huge discrepancy between RV & LV (+3 bluer among LV) Yet another high-quality poll picking up a shift towards Biden

InteractivePolls

@IAPolls2022

3 months

📊 NATIONAL POLL: NPR/Marist 🟦 Biden 51% (+3) 🟥 Trump 48% Definitely voting 🟦 Biden 53% (+6) 🟥 Trump 47% • Suburban voters: Biden 58-41% • March poll: Biden 50-48% • January poll: Biden 49-48% — 🟦 Biden 43% (+5) 🟥 Trump 38% 🟨 RFK Jr 14% 🟨 West 2% 🟩 Stein 2%

176

254

1K

15

33

253

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

One of my favorite political anecdotes was with my R-leaning dad during the 2020 cycle. Dad: “I don’t get why people don’t like Martha McSally. She’s an Air Force pilot. What’s better or more American than that?” Me: “Mark Kelly is an astronaut” Dad: “Fuck”

Nikolaj🥥🌴🐝🇺🇦

@nikicaga

4 months

@lxeagle17 @ECaliberSeven @fawfulfan To be fair, "outsider" usually means random businessman, especially for Republicans Kelly is an ASTRONAUT married to Arizona political icon

3

0

61

4

21

236

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

MU Law is a great pollster. But idk how Biden can be winning indies by 14 points but be down 2 in a H2H with Trump (49-51) at the same time In 2020, Biden won indies by ~9 pts with a 4.5% overall win.

MULawPoll

@MULawPoll

2 months

Trump and Biden each supported by 90 percent or more of those from their parties. Among independents, 57% support Biden, 43% support Trump. #mulawpoll

24

41

268

23

41

232

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 years

@N3W_R0MANTICS @TheSwiftSociety @TheSun @taylorswift13 No. Not in the slightest

0

211

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

🧵 How predictive is the NYT/Siena poll 6 months out? I compared the NYT nat’l poll crosstabs from 6/17-6/20 2020 to the actual 2020 results Across all demographics & toplines, (shocker) they are not predictive at all. In fact, most crosstab demos are off by 9 pts or more 1/

10

68

224

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

Rep. Lucy McBath should definitely run for Governor of Georgia in 2026 By that year she will have already represented 1/5 of Georgians in Congress due to the many different maps the state has had since 2019 @GTCarfree

Greg Bluestein

@bluestein

2 months

Even as senior Republicans openly jockey to succeed Gov. Brian Kemp in 2026, the potential Democratic field has been slower to take shape. But Democratic U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath tells @PoliticallyGa she’s open to joining the fray. #gapol

18

84

321

4

25

215

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

Top 5 most likely 2028 Dem nominees VP Kamala Harris Gretchen Whitmer Gavin Newsom Josh Shapiro Andy Beshear

Ryan Brune

@BruneElections

2 months

Who are the top 5 most likely 2028 Democratic nominees (not in order)?

271

8

250

37

9

208

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

1 month

My favorite part of the article Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon lays out how Georgia, North Carolina & Nevada are different states demographically/electorally to one another & why she’s bullish on Biden sweeping all three

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

1 month

Biden 2024 campaign chair @jomalleydillon sees Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia as battleground states. And you’re saying you see North Carolina also as a battleground state? "Yes." Florida? "No."

13

67

184

6

34

202

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

Yeah whoever’s saying the Senate is a tossup is high on wishful thinking. This year is a brutal map for Democrats. To me, the correct rating is Lean R The fact that we’re even discussing the possibility of Dems winning the Senate this cycle is miraculous in and of itself

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

3 months

Something weird is that at the moment, the conventional wisdom in a lot of DC circles says that the House is a virtual lock for Democrats, the Senate is a tossup, and a Trump presidency is very likely. Arguably none of those forecasts are compatible with each other!

67

52

903

30

13

199

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

How the hell did we go from one week with 90% of polls being Biden leads to this week where it’s ALL Trump leads?

38

12

198

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Holy shit! My tweet is being shown on the Charlie Kirk show and being retweeted by the Biden HQ hahahaha

Kamala HQ

@KamalaHQ

4 months

MAGA operative: Biden's campaign already has 14 field offices in Georgia. 14 offices in Pennsylvania, 20 in Michigan, 44 in Wisconsin, 10 in North Carolina, 8 in Arizona... Trump has reported zero offices in all of those states

121

517

2K

18

28

190

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

@chriswithans LOL sure keep thinking that

4

0

176

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

Biden economy approval: FT-Michigan Ross April 24’ Improvement from March 24’: Women 36%—-> 43% Black 62%—-> 69% Hispanic 31%—-> 43% Indies 13%—-> 31% 18-29 23%—-> 38% Dem 71%—-> 76% It seems like Biden’s campaign tactics are paying off

InteractivePolls

@IAPolls2022

3 months

FT: President Biden Job Approval Approve 43% [+5] Disapprove 53% [-6] Net: -10% [+11] Record high net approval since the monthly FT poll started. — Trust more on the economy: Trump 41%[-1] Biden 35% [+4] [+/- change vs February] — April 4-8 | 1,010 RV

48

88

461

3

30

178

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

22 days

When comparing the NYT/Siena surveys pre-debate (Trump+4) & post-debate (Trump+6) Biden actually *gained* support from indies by 4 pts The topline +2 swing to Trump is mostly from a small drop in support from Dems Also, pre-debate survey sample: R+1. Post-debate: R+2 2/

3

47

174

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 years

I dont know if anyone has else noticed but Chavez-De Remer’s 9,000 vote lead in OR-05 just shrank to 7,000 votes @umichvoter @lxeagle17 @ChiCyph80

Oregon Fifth Congressional District Election Results (Published 2022)

See full results and maps from the 2022 Oregon elections.

www.nytimes.com

2

12

165

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

👀 It sure looks like Mike Garcia (R) is in trouble this year. His challenger Dem George Whitesides now has more fundraising, COH, & he is leading in the first poll of the cycle: +3 Whitesides

Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

3 months

First CA27 internal poll from George Whitesides’s campaign: Mike Garcia (R-inc.): 44% G. Whitesides (D): 47% Roughly in line with what the 2020 result would have been under the new CA27 lines…

7

41

294

12

23

171

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

1 month

A model that gives only a 51% chance for Biden to win the popular vote is not a serious model imo

Aaron Blake

@AaronBlake

1 month

Nate Silver's model projects Trump getting 47.1% of the popular vote. That's barely north of where he was in 2020 (46.8%). But still a ~2/3 at electoral-college victory.

13

11

44

18

15

170

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

First set of polls where Biden is leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin. Tied in Nevada too Michigan 52-48 Biden Pennsylvania 51-49 Biden Wisconsin 51-49 Biden Nevada 50-50 It’s a Dem-pollster run by Dick Gebhardt & retired House Republicans

Political Polls

@Politics_Polls

2 months

MICHIGAN Biden 52% (+4) Trump 48% . PENNSYLVANIA Biden 51% (+2) Trump 49% . WISCONSIN Biden 51% (+2) Trump 49% . NEVADA Biden 50% Trump 50% . NORTH CAROLINA Trump 51% (+2) Biden 49% . ARIZONA Trump 51% (+2) Biden 49% . GEORGIA Trump 51% (+2) Biden 49% . FLORIDA Trump 53% (+6)

193

151

925

17

24

162

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

6 months

@admcrlsn I’m certain if Biden wins reelection, ettinger will just retcon and shower himself in praise saying he expected it all along. The guy routinely credits himself for things he plays no part in

5

3

151

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

11 days

So let me get this straight, this Georgia poll (47-44 Trump) has: • Republicans at 90% voter enthusiasm & Democrats at 52% & •Trump winning independents y 30 points Yet, Trump is only leading Biden by 3 points and is stuck at a ceiling of 47%

dcg1114

@dcg1114

11 days

MC found small movement back to Biden (-2 to -1) after the assassination attempt. Insider advantage (who had a terrible '22) now has Biden down 3 44-47 in Georgia. It's an astonishing result - and this quote from the pollster has to give Dems some hope about GA.

17

47

145

10

20

153

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

11 months

@swiftie0430 @swiftoursonggg This is the only correct answer

0

146

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

7 months

Wow. So even with depressed urban turnout (Dem base) in Nov 2023, Democrats still annihilated Republicans across the board. How? The suburbs.

Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot

7 months

NEW: We've got a deep dive into turnout in the 2023 elections, which suggest that 2024 will be another super high-turnout election, especially in the suburbs:

8

60

201

10

8

144

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

Walmart & now Amazon are slashing grocery stores prices. Time for Kroger ( #2 grocery store chain in U.S.) to do the same I want this to become a true domino effect

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

2 months

This week. 🇺🇸 #CPI #DoveBait 🕊️

31

239

664

10

48

142

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

17 days

Joe, just be like this everyday

Andrew Bates

@AndrewBatesNC

17 days

. @JoeBiden to cheers from @AFLCIO : “We’re the fastest-growing economy in the world” “Here’s what we’ve got to do” “Food prices are still too high because of corporate greed” “Need more housing” “A whole range of things we’re going to get done with your help in a 2nd term”

272

2K

4K

15

21

141

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Biden’s approval rating isn’t getting a SOTU bounce but it seems like the bounce is showing up in H2H polling so far. Note: I didn’t include YouGov or Morning Consult because they track polls every few days rather than biweekly or monthly & they tend to be pretty noisy

3

4

137

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

@Micah_Escobedo It is very pathetic. Like Axios does factual reporting. They do not need to add a stupid and frankly racist spin to a story

1

136

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

9 days

If Biden withdraws from the race, I think he will only do it if he got assurance that all of his delegates pledged their support to Harris If not, he won’t do it

8

13

140

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 years

@reputationvi Chandelier still flickering here

1

2

126

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

538 Swing-State Averages (Monthly Update) 03/30/24 vs. 04/30/24 MI +4.1 Trump ———> +1.3 Trump PA +2.9 Trump———> +1.8 Trump AZ +5.8 Trump———> +3.2 Trump NV +6.2 Trump———> +5.0 Trump GA +6.2 Trump———> +5.9 Trump WI +3.2 Trump———-> +2.6 Trump

5

30

134

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

Election Spending Reservations 2024 Senate: 🔵$320M🔴$164M House: 🔵$159M🔴$1.6M President: 🔵$130M🔴$0 This HAS to be unprecedented. Just an eye-popping financial discrepancy in favor of Dems

AdImpact Politics

@AdImpact_Pol

3 months

As of today, we've seen nearly $775M in fall reservations targeting the Senate, House, and the Presidential election. Democrats continue to hold significant reservation advantages. Here's the breakout by party: Senate: 🔵$320M🔴$164M House: 🔵$159M🔴$1.6M President: 🔵$130M🔴$0

19

159

555

9

29

131

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

@schlagteslinks LOL Biden won 18-29 by +25 in Minnesota 2020. Not a chance that there will be a 54 pt swing

2

0

126

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

1 month

A roughly 2.3 point drop in GOP bias in the Electoral College in just 4 years is massive. An R-bias of 1.5-2 pts is about where I’d expect it to be given the suburban realignment still chugging along in all of the swing states in favor of Dems Very encouraging for November

G Elliott Morris

@gelliottmorris

1 month

The difference between Biden’s margin in the Electoral College tipping point state (likely PA, others possible) and the national popular vote is closer to 1.5 points in our forecast today today, vs 3.8 last time.

2

23

140

5

27

126

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

22 days

When comparing the Reuters/Ipsos surveys pre (+2 Trump) & post-debate (TIED) Biden improves amongst all party IDs. He gains support from Dems, Reps & wins indies by 2 pts (5 pt swing) 4/

1

39

126

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

5 months

@vanillaopinions It’s gross. It’s even worse knowing that these pics of her were from when she was suffering from anorexia.

1

0

120

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

23 days

Anecdotal but the entire time Ive been in Wisconsin all I’ve seen are Tammy Baldwin ads & Biden/Harris ads

6

12

124

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

🧵 Biden Approval Economy YouGov/Yahoo 11/23 12/23 01/24 03/24 (-25) —-> (-19) —-> (-15) —-> (-5) Net Swing since 11/23: +20 Echelon Insights 12/23 01/24 02/24 03/24 (-22) —-> (-21) —-> (-19) —-> (-16) Net Swing since 12/23: +6 1/

3

15

122

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

1 month

Congress just passed the biggest clean energy bill since the IRA This act: -reduces licensing fees & limitations on nuclear energy construction -speeds up permitting for nuclear projects @purrtah has been covering this bill for two years and it finally passed. We did it!

Ben McAdams Memorial Acct

@purrtah

1 month

LETS FUCKING GO THEY PASSED THE ADANCE ACT FINALLY

1

9

117

3

30

116

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

This is quite possibly the most powerful ad Biden has released yet. Even if you’re anti-choice, you must be heartless to not feel empathy towards this couple

Joe Biden

@JoeBiden

4 months

This is a painful story that so many families around America now know too well: Amanda was denied the medical care she needed, and it nearly took her life. More than 1 in 3 women in America now lives under an abortion ban, with more on the way. Donald Trump did this.

7K

12K

30K

4

15

114

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

22 days

When you compare the YouGov/CBS surveys pre-debate (Trump+1) & post-debate (Trump+2) again, the changes are minimal. Biden *gained* support from Dems (+4 pts) but lost support from indies (7 pts). The topline result changed by only 1 pt overall in favor of Trump 3/

1

35

118

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Senate passes bipartisan Ukraine aid—-> House Republicans kill it House overwhelmingly passes child tax credit bill—-> Senate Republicans kill it But sure, Biden & Democrats are the problem

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

4 months

New: Senate Republicans are prepared to sink the child tax credit bill TILLIS: “don’t see how they have a path” HAWLEY: “It’s on life support” They’re referring to top Finance R CRAPO, who is demanding major changes. But that’d disrupt the coalition.

12

35

39

1

32

116

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

Dylan Byers

@DylanByers

3 months

🚨 CNN: "Erin Burnett will sit down with President Biden for an exclusive one on one interview tomorrow. ... Interview will air Wednesday at 7pm ET on Erin Burnett OutFront."

135

432

2K

2

5

115

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

22 days

When comparing the CNN/SSRS surveys pre (TIED) to post-debate (TIED) it shows indies swinging to Trump by 1 point Biden increases his Dem share by +11 points & Trump increases his Rep share by 1 pt

1

31

117

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

11 days

It should also be noted that Georgia has swung to Biden by 3 points in just 11 days

5

22

115

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

4 months

Arizona this cycle has near-exact circumstances of Michigan in 2022. -both swing states -both have an outdated abortion ban on the books -both have/had a constitutional amendment in an election year Yet the NYT thinks what happened in Michigan won’t happen in AZ 👇🏼

Adam Carlson

@admcrlsn

4 months

Yeah definitely didn’t sway any voters in the midterms either

44

41

731

5

10

115

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

22 days

NEW: Bloomberg/MC Biden is surging in nearly every swing state post-debate. Indies swinging to Biden from Trump+8—->TIED AZ Trump+5—->Trump+3 GA Trump+3—->Trump+1 MI Biden+1——>Biden+5 NV TIED ———>Trump+3 NC Trump+6—->Trump+3 PA Trump+2——>Trump+7 WI Trump+1——>Biden+3

Bloomberg Politics

@bpolitics

22 days

NEW: Biden has narrowed Trump’s lead in swing states despite a widely panned presidential debate performance, the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll finds

27

195

398

14

30

108

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

24 days

Well, I just got confirmation that my mom refuses to vote for Trump Before my dad passed, he couldnt vote for Trump again either I’m a very proud son ❤️

3

5

113

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

>In Wisconsin, Biden now has 46 offices across 42 counties, including 23 where Trump won by double digits in 2020 Wisconsin has more Biden field offices than any other state. This is how you win in a rural state.

Axios

@axios

3 months

President Biden's campaign is investing in dozens of field offices in some of the nation's reddest counties, pressing its early money advantage to establish political beachheads in hostile territory.

27

65

308

6

21

107

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

22 days

When comparing the Suffolk/USA Today surveys pre (TIED) & post-debate (Trump+3) indies swing to Biden by 2 points & he wins them by 1 overall. The minor slippage from the previous survey Biden gets is from a small drop in Dem support. 5/

1

31

112

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

Holy shit. Biden is on a tear today 😂 Ended Nate Silver

Dark Brandon

@VoteDarkBrandon

2 months

Cut the malarkey, Nate. I’d say stick to polling, but you suck at that too.

170

634

7K

1

14

112

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

7 months

@GalenMetzger1 And by extension Nate Silver couldn’t save himself from embarrassment

2

1

105

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

7 months

Not only does this make it possible for NC state Dems to win the popular vote in the state house next year but also this greatly helps push Biden over the finish line. I am so excited and proud of NC Dem state chair @abreezeclayton

NC Democratic Party

@NCDemParty

7 months

We are proud to announce that we have Democrats running in 118 out of 120 House districts and in all 50 Senate districts! While we take a moment to celebrate, we also know that we have a lot of work to do. We’re in this fight together and we’re going to win.

38

236

793

4

15

109

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

21 days

@Alejandro27Ale Indie swings from pre-debate to post-debate NYT/Siena Biden+6 Reuters/Ipsos Biden+5 Suffolk/USA Biden+3 CNN/SSRS Trump+1 YouGov/CBS Trump+7

5

42

109

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

5 months

🚨 New Texas Senate poll! 🚨 A few things: •This is now the 2nd poll in a row where Allred & Cruz are tied •Allred is beating Cruz by 10 points with independents (up from +1 from May 23’) •Cruz is underperforming Trump by +5

Political Polls

@PpollingNumbers

5 months

#NEW Texas Senate Poll 🔴 Cruz 41% 🔵 Allred 41% University of Texas #111 - 1,167 RV - 2/26

86

154

1K

11

12

108

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

3 months

Please pick JD Vance. I would be so owned as a lib

Nancy Cook

@nancook

3 months

NEW: Trump VP list is winnowing down to Gov Burgum, Sens Rubio, Vance + Scott. They will appear w/donors at RNC retreat in Palm Beach this weekend. No formal meetings with Trump yet to talk about the job (tho he speaks to all of them regularly):

428

175

460

6

2

109

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

29 days

I listen to these guys every week. Never have I been more disappointed in them They like to fashion themselves as “above the DC/NY punditry” but they’ve just become them with this BS Biden is the nominee. Get the fuck over it and get behind him NOW. If not, get out of the way

Pod Save America

@PodSaveAmerica

29 days

We need to have this conversation right now. Listen to the latest episode of Pod Save America now wherever you get your podcasts. #PodSaveAmerica #CrookedMedia #Debate #Biden

326

116

1K

15

8

106

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

2 months

More than a supermajority of Americans (70%) support Biden’s executive order on border security You don’t see high support like this for anything Biden does these days

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

2 months

70-30 support for Biden's recent executive order on immigration that partly shuts down asylum processing along the border.

73

172

899

1

29

105

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

26 days

Ridin with Biden at Minocqua Brewing Co. in northern Wisconsin 5% of all sales go to a Super PAC that’s devoted to Wis Dems. Get your Biden beer now!

6

15

104

Zac Harmon 🌈

@Zprtr1

9 days

It’s not my first choice to supplant the incumbent president but if it’s not Biden, then it’s Harris—full stop There is no universe in which black voters will abide by DC Dems jumping over the first black vice president of the United States. They will rightfully feel cheated

3

19

107