Vance Ulrich @VanceUlrich Twitter profile

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Vance Ulrich

5 months

If you're an OC resident or just a political nerd like me, I created an interactive version of the 2024 OC Primary Results which includes both results for Congress and US Senate. Fun to play around with... Link: (Works best on Desktop)

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

4 years

Presidential Vote across 3 military installations in SoCal: 2016: 62-38 Trump 2020: 51-49 Trump Pretty clear Trump slumped with service members...

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

LA Mayor update: Karen Bass has passed Rick Caruso! 41-38 Bass now.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Orange County, CA is one of the biggest chip manufacturing counties in America and Michelle Steel just voted against the CHIP Act. The DCCC could turn this into a pretty devastating ad.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

According to 538’s modeling, the odds that Dems hold the House, if Dems Christy Smith (CA-27) and Rudy Salas (CA-22): Both win — 52% Both lose — 3% CA-22 and CA-27 are two of House Dems best pickup opportunities in the nation, and might literally decide control of Congress.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Great update in OC for Dems! This batch broke: CA-47: 60% Porter (D), 40% Baugh (R) CA-49: 53% Levin (D), 47% Maryott (R) BOS D5: 57% Foley (D), 43% Bates (R)

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Huge poll of CA Latinos: Biden Approval: 60-34 Approve Generic Ballot: 59% D, 14% R Abortion support: 78% (UnidosUS)

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

First results in CA-47: Katie Porter (D) - 57.8% Scott Baugh (R) - 42.3% Total early mail votes: 124k votes

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

100k vote update from LA! Batch broke: LA Mayor: 59-41 Bass (D) AD-40: 57-43 Schiavo (D) CA-27: 54-46 Smith (D) Bass is a very heavy favorite to win and Pilar Schiavo is on pace to flip AD-40! Millions of ballots left to count too..

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Call: Democrat Pilar Schiavo will defeat Republican incumbent Suzette Valladares. Santa Clarita will have a new assemblywoman! First R to D flip in the CA assembly this cycle.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

👀There are rumors that a certain Congresswoman from Irvine has started taking steps to prepare for a Senate run in 2024.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Katie Porter's 51.7% share in the 22 Primary is higher than her share in the 20 Primary despite: 1) This electorate being 4% more red than 2020. 2) Basically half of her district being new for her. Pretty impressive result.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

4 years

GOP Registration Majority in CA-45 is now down to just 300 voters. Dems should take the lead for the first time ever by Friday. GOP has just plummeted here since the Capitol riot.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

A sobering thought for CA Republicans: the first mail updates usually are among the least Dem friendly. It can snowball to getting even worse. I guarantee you there will be some updates coming where Dems clear 60%+ in late mail ballots.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

You just cant make this shit up. LA/OC hasn’t seen significant rainfall in more than 7 months and a huge storm is going to hit on election day…the day Republicans really rely on for turnout. What are the odds?!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

4 years

It's officially done: Katrina Foley will be the first female Democrat on the OC Board of Supervisors. There are now two Dems on the 5 member Board. She will also be the first Dem to represent the coastal District 2 since 1894! This is a district that has an R+8 registration

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

5 years

DCCC internal in CA-25: Christy Smith (D) - 30 Steve Knight (R) - 26 Mike Garcia (R) - 13 Cenk Uygur (D) - 5

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

11 months

Not shocked that Newsom appointed an outsider like @LaphonzaB as CA’s Senator. Barbara Lee basically accused the Governor of being a liar a couple weeks ago with a statement on national TV, which I don’t recommend. A couple of her own advisors resigned in protest.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

5 years

Frst CA-25 numbers in Ventura County! Christy Smith (D) - 34% Mike Garcia (R) - 35% Steve Knight (R) - 18% Cenk Uygur (D) - 4%

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

A massive symbolic and substantive change in CAPolitics: @KatrinaFoley has declared victory (and I agree) for OC Board District 5! Democrats have taken control of the OC Board for the first time since 1976! The Orange Curtain is no more…

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Late night early vote update: CA-13 (Open): D+10 CA-27 (Garcia-R): D+14 CA-41 (Calvert-R): D+13 CA-45 (Steel-R): D+6 CA-47 (Porter-D): D+7 CA-49 (Levin-D): D+6 Will Rollins in CA-41 is currently overperforming the most, but almost Dems are increasing their share.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Despite being outspent by nearly 4:1, progressive darling Kenneth Mejia was elected LA controller in a landslide over establishment favorite Paul Koretz. Mejia carried almost every LA constituency: black voters, white liberals, API vote, and Latino vote. Truly impressive.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Mike Levin, Katie Porter, and Katrina foley increased their leads again… You can stick a fork in it, they’ve all been re-elected. OC GOP better get ready for 4 more years of Katrina “The Force” Foley!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

At the local level, Southern California has changed dramatically since the 2016 Presidential Election -- Dems have flipped three Boards of Supervisors in San Diego, Orange, and Riverside Counties. Dems could take a 4-1 advantage in Riverside in 2024 with an open Biden+24 seat

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Tentatively, Democrats are ahead in all three Board of Supervisors races in Orange County — which would mean the first Dem majority in 40 years. Democrat Katrina Foley is currently ahead by 2,744 votes. *A lot* is riding on these late mail ballots yet to be counted…

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Congresswoman Katie Porter is definitely running for US Senate — its like an open secret at this point. Could have a state senator Min v former Congressman Rouda primary in CA-47. A lot of potential interest.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

4 years

Secretary of State Padilla is coordinating the investigation because this is is so widespread. Phony drop off boxes have been found in CA-21, CA-25, and CA-48. A conviction is a felony with 2-4 years of prison time.

Brooke E. Staggs

@JournoBrooke

4 years

State and local elections officials are investigating, and the Orange County DA is involved, after unauthorized ballot drop boxes with apparent ties to the GOP started popping up throughout the state. @ARobWriter and I have the story:

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Karen Bass has taken the lead with another 100k vote update from LA!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Call: Democratic Assemblywoman Cottie Petrie-Norris has defeated Republican incumbent Steven Choi in Irvine. Expected, but Democrats are well on their way to flipping more legislative seats in CA.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

First poll from UC Berkeley on CA’s Prop 1 (Codifying Roe): Yes - 71% No - 18% OC: 69-21 Yes Independents: 74-14 Yes Wow, that’s a ginormous lead!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Kansas City has posted abortion precinct results! Majority-Latino precincts vote on abortion amendment: Yes (oppose abortion) - 24% No (support abortion) - 76% This is actually slightly higher support for abortion than KC overall. Big implications for the CA vote in November!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Damn, Palm Springs Republican-turned-independent Assemblyman Chad Mayes is having a mic drop moment. He’s already served his last day in the legislature and just endorsed Dem Will Rollins in CA-41 — while slamming Rollin’s GOP opponent, Ken Calvert.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

This is a big deal -- OC in person voting was horrific today: Today: 13,995 votes 2021: 25,940 votes Today is supposed to be the most robust early in person voting and it was down about 50% from what was expected. Rethink your priors if you think rain doesn't affect turnout.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Democrat Christy Holstege has retaken the lead in AD-47 with an update from the registrar! That might be the final nail in the coffin for GOP chance’s of holding this seat. She leads now by 97 votes but very, very few votes left…

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

3 years

With all in person votes now counted, the swing in Orange County's ethnic communities is even more stark. Majority-Vietnamese precinct swung an average of 30% from Trump in 2020 to No on the recall. Precincts with significant Korean-American voters swung an average of 7%.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

👀 70% chance of rain in LA/OC on election day. The CA GOP relies a lot on election day turnout. And people really freak out over rain in SoCal — its not normal like on the east coast.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Democratic early voting in CA is starting to really pop off: CA-27 (Garcia-R): D+14 CA-47 (Porter-D): D+8 CA-49 (Levin-D): D+7 OC BOS D5 (Foley-D): D+3 Statewide, Democrats represent a majority of the vote (>50%) for the first time.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

6 months

Call: Democrats have sucessfully recalled the anti-gay Republican majority on the Orange Unified Board. Trustee Minor and Ledemsa will be removed.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

There are currently 500k mail ballots uncounted in LA County, which will almost assuredly grow to more than a million as more last minute returns are processed. They skew very Democratic, so hold off on any LA takes for now…

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Honestly don’t see any evidence at all that points to anything other than Katie Porter, Mike Levin, and Katrina Foley being re-elected in OC.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Halloween early vote update in SoCal competitive seats: CA-26 (Brownley-D): D+17 CA-27 (Garcia-R): D+15 CA-41 (Calvert-R): D+11 CA-45 (Steel-R): D+5 CA-47 (Porter-D): D+8 CA-49 (Levin-D): D+7 CA-26 and CA-27 have been trending Dem the most last couple days…

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

South Orange County Registration: Nov. 2016: 30% Dem, 41% Rep (R+11) Sept. 2022: 35% Dem, 35% Rep (R+0) Donald Trump pretty much single handedly destroyed the South OC Republican Party.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

LA Vote update! Batch broke: AD-40: 61-39 Schiavo (D) CA-27: 57-43 Smith (D) Fantastic update for Schiavo — she’s well on her way to flipping this assembly seat!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Christy Smith (D-CA27) has released an internal: Smith: 47% Garcia: 41% The last internal she released had her up 44-42.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

6 months

Final results in OC for the US Senate: Dem candidates: 45.8% Rep candidates: 46.7% Electorate: R+7 Registration: D+3 Joe Biden will carry OC in November -- the big goal is making sure that every Biden supporter votes blue downballot too!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

538 currently models that CA-27 would be the 218th House Dem majority seat. The CA-27 election between Dem Christy Smith and Rep Mike Garcia could literally decide control of congress according to 538.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

6 months

Final UC Berkeley Poll of the CA Senate race: Steve Garvey (R) - 27% (+14 since Jan.) Adam Schiff (D) - 25% (+4) Katie Porter (D) - 19% (+2) Barbara Lee (D) - 8% (-1) This is the best pollster in California and that looks like that’s all she wrote for the CA Senate race…

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

4 years

Theres been a big shift with Vietnamese-American voters in OC- Westminster, CA (plurality Vietnamese): 2016: 53-38 HRC 2020: 53-45 Trump

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

UC Berkeley/LA times poll for LA Mayor: Karen Bass - 46% Rick Caruso - 31% (Likely voters)

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

It almost seems like gospel these days that Latinos are just flying rightward, but the most recent and highly respected CA poll of Latinos so far this cycle has: 22 Biden: 68-32 Approve 20 Pres vote: 68-32 Biden ...And CA had a statewide election in 21 where Latinos vote 70%+ D

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Change in registration over the last year and a half in the new CA congressional districts: CA-27 (Garcia): D+11.6 -> D+12.5 CA-40 (Kim): R+5.6 -> R+4.9 CA-41 (Calvert): R+0.7 -> D+0.4 CA-45 (Steel): D+4.9 -> D+5.6 CA-47 (Porter): D+1.1 -> D+ 1.6 CA-49 (Levin): D+ 1.9 -> D+3

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

3 years

First OC Recall Results: Yes - 299,711 (41.7%) No - 419,587 (58.3%) This is only early mail in votes. And this is a fantastic start for Gavin Newsom.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

5 months

Final Dem President and US Senate results in majority-Black LA precincts: Pres (D): Joe Biden - 90.0% Marianne Williamson - 3.9% Dean Phillips - 2.0% US Senate: Adam Schiff - 48% Barbara Lee - 29% Katie Porter - 11% Steve Garvey - 5% US Senate partisan vote: 91-8% D

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

3 months

CA Statewide Poll: Joe Biden (D) - 55% Donald Trump (R) - 31% Other (must name) - 13% Latino voters: 62-26 Biden US Senate: Adam Schiff (D) 62-37 Swing House seats: 59-39 Dem Latino voters: 69-29 House Dem Link:

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

CA early mail vote update: CA-13 (Open): D+9 CA-22 (Valadao-R): D+10 CA-26 (Brownley-D): D+16 CA-27 (Garcia-R): D+14 CA-41 (Calvert-R): D+8 CA-45 (Steel-R): D+4 CA-47 (Porter-D): D+7 CA-49 (Levin-D): D+7

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Good news for Dems that have anxiety about OC results: The rest of the 50k polling place mail ballots appear to have been processed today and results barely changed at all. The rest of the mail ballots should be smooth sailing for Dems in OC.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

National Dems will never say it publicly but Dems overperformed their own internals. I’ll never forget the night I went to bed after hearing several internals. I just told my boyfriend everything’s okay but I’m going to bed. Some of the said Democrats are ahead right now…

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Final LA update! Assembly District 40 (Santa Clarita): Pilar Schiavo (D): 79,282 (50.2%) Suzette Valladares (R): 78,771 (49.8%) Pilar is the apparent winner with a margin of about 500 votes. This is CA Dems first flip in the legislature!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

4 years

🚨It's official -- Democrats have surpassed the GOP in Katie Porter's CA-45 for the first time ever: Dem - 166,924 (34.7%) GOP - 166,859 (34.7%) Other - 147,293 (30.6%) In 2012, the district was 45% GOP, 28% Dem, 27% Other

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

DCCC’s super pac has already started eyeing 2024 seats in CA: CA-27 (Garcia-R) CA-40 (Kim-R) CA-41 (Calvert-R) CA-45 (Steel-R) In 22, the DCCC spent about $300k in the LA media market while spending tens of millions in NYC A DCCC Spokesperson said “LA is too expensive.”

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Final numbers for Porter and Levin's seats: CA-47 (Porter): Gov - R+0.5 Senate - D+1.6 Congress - D+3.4 CA-49 (Levin): Gov - D+0.8 Senate - D+4.3 Congress - D+5.2

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Not a huge update in LA but this batch broke: LA Mayor: 62-38 Bass (D) AD-40: 61-39 Schiavo (D) CA-27: 57-43 Smith (D) Schiavo is still on track to flip AD-40.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 months

I’ve heard that every single CA Dem delegate has committed to supporting Kamala Harris at the convention. Golden State strong! 🐻🥥🌴

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Early vote update in CA house districts with a significant vote count: CA-27: D+12 CA-40: R+4 CA-45: D+5 CA-47: D+6 CA-49: D+3 Still a very long way to go but the electorate in all these districts is significantly bluer than the primary. CA-27 is 8% more blue right now.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

1 year

Wow! The CA Assembly passed a constitutional amendment yesterday to repeal prop 8 and enshrine marriage equality 66-0 with support from 6 Republicans. Some of the wackiest CA Republicans supported it — what a wild roll call vote!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Call: Democrat Malia Cohen will be the next Controller of the State of California. Democrats will control every single row office after tonight.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

5 years

If youre keeping count at home, Cenk has 543 votes to show for about $1 mill raised.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Call: Democratic Mayor of Moreno Valley CA, Yxstian Gutierrez has flipped the Riverside Board of Supervisors. Have no clue clue the last time Democrats controlled this but it’s a big deal.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Probably the penultimate early vote update for CA swing house districts: CA-13 (Open): D+8 CA-22 (Valadao-R): D+12 CA-27 (Garcia-R): D+10 CA-41 (Calvert-R): D+5 CA-45: (Steel-R): D+2 CA-47 (Porter-D): D+4 CA-49 (Levin-D): D+6

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

10 months

CA Senate endorsement vote results: Barbara Lee - 41.5% Adam Schiff - 40.2% Katie Porter - 16.1% Lexi Reese - 0.1% No endorsement - 2.2% Overall result: NO ENDORSEMENT 60% is needed to be endorsed.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Hoping East Coast media outlets report on how Democrats are dominating the Mexican-American Latino vote in the West. But, I fully expect lots of stories about Cuban diners in Miami.🙄

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

There are at least 5 districts in CA that are tossups in 2024 if Democratic turnout rebounds: CA-13 (Merced) CA-22 (Bakersfield) CA-27 (Santa Clarita) CA-41 (Palm Springs) CA-45 (Little Saigon/OC) Those 5 House R/Biden districts are enough to retake the House.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

1 year

Its just one poll but the new PPIC poll of CA is amazing for Biden — Crosstab change since Oct 2020: OC/San Diego: Biden+13 -> Biden+25 Latinos: Biden+24 -> Biden+42 White voters: Biden+20 -> Biden+22 Independents: Biden+12 -> Biden+35 That would be a landslide if it verified

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

1 year

CA Republican Mike Garcia in CA-27 endorses impeachment of President Biden. President Biden carried his district by about 13% in 2020 and will probably carry his district by about 15% in 2024.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

3 years

OC has nearly finished counting all recall ballots: No - 585,098 (51.7%) Yes - 546,155 (48.3%) Only about 8k left to count. Newsom won OC by just 0.2% in 2018.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

USC Poll of CA: Gov: 62-38 Newsom LG: 63-37 Kounalakis SOS: 63-37 Weber Controller: 58-42 Cohen Generic ballot: 63-37 Dem If 62/63 sounds familiar, it’s because Dems have won 62-63% in CA for several cycles now…nothing’s changed.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Interesting uptick in Dem ballot returns yesterday in CA-27: Dem: 48% Rep: 30% Other: 22% Overall now: 45.5% Dem, 32% Rep, 23% Other (D+13.5%)

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Its just incredible to see turnout in Palm Springs. Turnout is more than double the state at the moment and Dems are turning out 50% higher than the Reps in the city. Cannot wait for Assemblymember @christyholstege One of the most likely flips for Dems in the entire state!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Gavin Newsom: I don’t endorse in “D v D races.” President Obama: “Oh really. I only see one Democrat in this race!”

Ben Oreskes

@boreskes

2 years

NEWS: @BarackObama has waded into the Los Angeles mayor's race endorsing @KarenBassLA .

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

1 year

CA poll on a new state law requiring air conditioning: Overall: 67-22 support Renters: 77-12 support Homeowners: 59-32 support $20-40k households: 78-11 support $200k+ households: 53-35 support Dems: 81-11 support Reps: 48-42 support Trump 2020 voters: 45-44 oppose

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Wow, UC Irvine came in big time for Dems in OC: Turnout -- 2014: 24% 2018: 60% 2022: 61% These precincts are 91% Dem and net about 6,000 votes for Dems. Youth turnout was lower this year overall in OC and CA, so this really stands out...

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

One thing is clear so far: Latino turnout was atrocious in CA and cost Dems at least 2-3 House seats. That was always my worry about a midterm year — lower turnout disproportionately hurts Dems in the Central Valley! It will dramatically increase in 24 tho as a Pres general…

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

More scary math for the CA GOP: The early vote in CA-22 is currently D+12. The primary was D+0 when Rudy Salas finished at 45%. As more young Latinos return their ballots, it wont get easier for David Valadao…

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

7 months

If you're keeping track at home, Republican CA swing district House Member quarterly fundraising is down about 30% since Speaker McCarthy's exit. Some like Duarte, Valadao, and Garcia have taken huge hits (~40%).

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Newport Beach, CA preliminary results: Prop 1 (Codifying Roe): Yes+6 Governor: R+26 Senator: R+25

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

CA legislature big board: Democrats have at least 31/40 senate seats and 62/80 assembly seats locked down. Democrats have held the supermajority as expected — just a matter of how many more seats they will flip.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Hoping to god Nancy Pelosi’s final act is ensuring a CA DCCC Chief in 2024. The House can be won back in 2024 just through CA alone.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

CA’s 10th largest city, Anaheim, has been flipped by Democrats. Ashleigh Aitken will be the next Mayor. OC Dems have had a ton of success in downballot races this year. However, there is a majority of Disney-backed members on the Council that will surely clash with the Mayor.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

CA-41 is about as pure a tossup as well see in 2024. Democrat Will Rollins basically split the independent vote but he only got R+4 turnout in a district that has D+1 registration DCCC is already signaling they will prioritize this race after spending nothing on it this cycle

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

1 month

Finally have CA primary voter roll data: 1) Dem turnout was absolutely terrible 2) Democrats still have a very clear path to flipping 4 seats and making Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker of the House CA41 is probably going to be one of the closest races in the entire country!

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Wow, the DCCC is going all in for Rudy Salas in CA-22. They reserved $4 million in TV ads in the Central Valley on Friday. They must have some pretty solid internal polling. For what it's worth, I definitely think Salas can win. He just needs to turn out Latino Dems in Nov.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Nearly 1 million early votes counted in CA! CA-09 (Harder): D+19 CA-13 (OPEN): D+13 CA-27 (Garcia): D+16 CA-40 (Kim): D+5 CA-47 (Porter): D+10 CA-49 (Levin): D+12 Dems are currently overperforming the most in the OC seats: CA-40, CA-47, and CA-49.

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Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

To give you a sense of how many Dem ballots are outstanding in LA: Here's the current governor vote in two swing districts: AD-40: R+4 (was D+10 in 2018) CA-27: R+12 (was D+5 in 2018) There are *a ton* of Dem ballots to come in LA...

23

59

407

Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

10 months

PPIC Poll of CA President: Biden (D) - 60% Trump (R) - 29% Latino voters: 60-27% Biden 18-44 voters: 67-26% Biden Central Valley: 53-33% Biden Very good poll for Biden and hard to square with recent national polling.

31

52

403

Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

When Mike Garcia brags about opposing the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, he's bragging about opposing tens of billions of dollars in drought resiliency and wildfire prevention funds. CA-27 is one of the nation's most wildfire-prone districts.....

9

155

392

Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

Early vote in Katie Porter’s CA-47: Dem - 39% Rep - 36% Other - 25% Way too early to make anything of 3,000 votes but that’s an electorate that has Porter up about 54-46.

20

33

380

Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

6 months

🚨 A big deal: Democrats will take 4-1 control of the Riverside Board of Supervisors with three very strong labor-allied, Dem Sups! LA, Riverside, and San Diego Counties all have effective Dem majorities now. Will be interesting to see how they flex their muscle on the board.

14

71

397

Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

2 years

CA-41 is literally a tossup. Ken Calvert isn't performing well with in person voting.

13

45

382

Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

6 months

In a historic victory for OC Dems and equality, two members of the Orange Unified School Board have been successfully recalled over the board's adoption of a "forced outing" policy. The "Yes" vote won in large part because of big support in the City of Orange.

13

80

399

Vance Ulrich

@VanceUlrich

4 years

The OC GOP is facing a real and significant backlash after the Capitol insurrection. Republicans are shedding about 300 registered Republicans a day. Democrats are gaining more than independents too in the last week.

15

76

372