dcg1114 @dcg1114 Twitter profile

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 months

This is VERY good news Joseph Biden.

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

2 months

Oil is getting clobbered after that OPEC meeting

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Polling on NATO from Finland.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

If you want to understand why GA still matters look at the 2024 Senate map which has three incumbents in tough races: Tester, Manchin and Brown. It will be a lot easier to win 2 of those races than all three.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

6 years

@SimoneGiertz Riding on the metro in Paris today. Across from me is a very sad young woman: the sort of sadness that comes from fresh disappointment. I tell my wife about this girl I follow on twitter who is recovering - and the girl's face lights up - "you follow her too?". "She is better?

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

30 days

@Heminator "And the mayor and no one else in town could stop them from doing this because only the cops were allowed to determine what was legal." This is wrong. Congress could pass a rule overturning the administrative rule. Congress gave the grant of authority to begin with.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

20 days

I have made this point over and over - but here it is in the data. When undecideds were pushed, Bidens wins 82% of D's and 57% of Indy's. 18% of Blacks/Hispanics are undecided - when pushed Biden wins 70%+. 26% of those under 30 are undecided - Biden wins 60% of that vote.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

@billscher LOL. Her favorables are 20% in Arizona. Your defense of her has been pretty funny.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 days

I started tracking polling 20 years ago because of comments like this - which are just basically not true.

Josh Kraushaar

@JoshKraushaar

4 days

Looks awfully similar to Trump vs Biden

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 years

This is my town: we started knocking on doors in May convinced that personal persuasion was powerful. We knocked on these doors for 10 months, and the staff and volunteers were committed and worked like hell. We got 308 votes. Politics will break your heart.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

@SimonWDC @TomBevanRCP @SeanTrende The non-partisan pollster average was incredibly accurate. It had only 1 miss: NV (and that will be less than half a percent). The story isn't polls were wrong. The story is right-wing polls were wrong. Which many of us saw coming, and which RCP treated with derision.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 months

This is nuts. Biden is TIED. Pre-debate polls: '76 Ford trailed 52-39 in ABC, 47-34 in NYT '80 Carter trailed 45-42 in Gallup, 42-36 in NBC '92 Bush trailed by 13 in ABC, 12 in CBS '20 Trump trailed by 7 in 9 polls taken 5 days before

(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten

2 months

Four incumbent presidents have trailed going into the first presidential debate in the average of polls. All four lost that November. Not great history for Biden. Probably a big reason he wants the debate earlier. Try and change the dynamic as early as possible & upset history.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 months

This is nonsense. Marquette had Biden up 4 and is not included in the average. Emerson was 51-49 yet they use a different number. The inclusion of Rasmussen is indefensible.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

It's incredible. If ABC and NBC are right this will be the best showing for an in-power party since 2002. You would never know this from most of the news media - the lack of context is astounding.

Bill Kristol

@BillKristol

2 years

Hey, don't want to interrupt my Democratic friends when they're engaged in their favorite sports of The Gnashing of Teeth and The Tearing of Garments, but it looks as if the Democratic Party will have the best midterm performance by a party in the White House in two decades.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 months

GRRR. The polling in '22 missed enormously among African Americans and the average is now is pretty close to what polling found in '22.

(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten

2 months

Trump has doubled his support among Black voters from this point four years ago. If his support held, it'd be the best GOP performance since Richard Nixon in 1960 among Black voters.... Trump's doing it thanks to pulling in a quarter of Black voters under 50.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

5 months

What is amazing in this discussion is NO ONE asks if the '24 polling is unusual, or if polling understated D performance in '22. I can post this chart 100 times - at this point it is comical. None of these so call experts actually look at the fricken history.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

5 months

Democrats are quite rapidly losing support among Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters in polls and at least some recent election results.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Insider Advantage: Murray +2 Trafalgar: Murray +.8. Hysterical.

J. Miles Coleman

@JMilesColeman

2 years

Murray's 57%-43% lead matches the primary vote exactly

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Big picture: 81 counties are in. Turnout in Blue counties is about 1.3% higher versus November than in Red Counties. Warnock is outperforming his November number in blue counties. Walker is basically matching his numbers in the red counties. Maybe means Warnock +2.5?

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

The reporting on the NY Governor's race is basically a repeat of the California recall election.

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

2 years

Hochul holds a 7.3 pt lead in the poll avg. Siena has her up 11. If that qualifies as "up for grabs" and a "red tide", then I look forward to the NYT reporting on the "blue wave" in OK, IA, FL, GA, OH, and NC, where GOPs are all facing narrower polling leads than Hochul.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Buried in the Cygnal Ohio poll: Biden's approval rating is substantially higher among those who always vote versus those who seldom vote. This is consistent with the CO Marist poll today and the recent YouGov polling.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 months

This stuff drives me nuts - but its how narratives are created. Saying Biden trails IS NOT ACCURATE - the race is in my average is inside of a point. NONE of these comparisons are close to relevant. It's bad history, bad data, and bad analysis.

(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten

2 months

Four incumbent presidents have trailed going into the first presidential debate in the average of polls. All four lost that November. Not great history for Biden. Probably a big reason he wants the debate earlier. Try and change the dynamic as early as possible & upset history.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

5 years

@NateSilver538 This is such a bad take: did Barack Obama position himself as more moderate than Clinton in 2008???

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 years

Fulton at 22%. At 9:30 on election night Fulton was at 1%. This is a VERY different pattern in the reporting of results.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

From my piece at Bleeding Heartland - if you think right-wing polls are flooding the zone and changing polling averages - you are right.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

I will never forget talking to someone with the Pappas campaign in NH-1 on election night. They absolutely thought they were going to lose - the internal D polling was not very good.

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

2 years

I’ve long wondered what exactly went on with John Fetterman’s internal polling and what it showed. @danielmarans had an interesting article here suggesting that Fetterman’s own polling showed him down at the end. Not sure even they expected a 5 point win.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 years

The most interesting poll of the weekend (FL-13). It's an old district, 56% are over 55. A whopping 71% say they are going to vote by mail. Biden leads by 14. Clinton won it by 3, Obama by 12. This is a REALLY good result for Biden.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 days

After a disastrous debate, an assassination attempt, and the Republican National Convention, Harris is higher than Biden's best number in 18 months+. CNN found a 3 point shift after reconnecting with previous poll participants. Something very big may be in process.

Cameron Easley

@cameron_easley

4 days

NEW: In our first daily tracking survey of the Harris-Trump race, the VP leads by 1 point, 46% to 45%. Her share of support is higher than Biden has garnered all cycle, going all the way back to late 2022. Read more here:

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

It is worth taking a step back and thinking about this (I agree with the ratings). Two states that were absolutely competitive in '16 and '20 do not have competitive Governor's races at a time when inflation is at generational highs. It is pretty incredible.

Larry Sabato

@LarrySabato

2 years

Michigan Governor and Pennsylvania Governor have just been upgraded from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

I posted the data from polls in NV and AZ in my piece at Crystal Ball. There was NEVER compelling data to support a significant shift among Hispanics. The pieces that did were horribly cherry-picked.

Nick Riccardi

@NickRiccardi

2 years

We won’t really know until we can get a precinct level analysis but certainly the results suggest Rs at best made incremental gains w non-FL Latinos. There was way too much hype on this storyline based off v small sample sizes in polls.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

5 years

This is about my 500th post on why Democrats need to be worried about minority turnout.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 years

I really like this presentation.

Max

@maxtmcc

4 years

Here’s a graphic for the 2020 election by raw vote margin:

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Battleground polling - '12 - 22. An average of non-partisan pollsters predicted EVERY battleground Senate race correctly. The ONLY miss in competitive races was AZ Gov - where the average was -.25. Junk conservative polling distorted reporting horribly before the '22 election.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Average Generic Ballot and Presidential Polling averages back to '94. On average the Generic Ballot polling in a midterm's misses by over 3 points. An average miss has enormous consequences in a country as closely divided as the US. We know far less about Tuesday than we think.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

13 days

MC found small movement back to Biden (-2 to -1) after the assassination attempt. Insider advantage (who had a terrible '22) now has Biden down 3 44-47 in Georgia. It's an astonishing result - and this quote from the pollster has to give Dems some hope about GA.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

TWO very good pollsters, Marist and Siena find OH tied. Looking at the cross tabs there is a substantial group of independents that don't like Biden or Trump. This was the group that swung the election in '16 - right now Ryan is ahead or even among them.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

8 months

If you see a poll suggesting a significant change from the last 3 elections, question the poll. '12🔵Obama 51🔴Romney 47 '16🔵Clinton 48🔴Trump 46 '20🔵 Biden 51 🔴 Trump 46.8 18-29 ' 12 🔵Obama 60🔴Romney 37 ' 16 🔵Clinton 58🔴Trump 28 '20 🔵Biden 59🔴Trump 35 '22 🔵 63 🔴35

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

26 days

In historical terms, the shift from the first post-debate is one of the smaller in modern political history.

dcg1114

@dcg1114

26 days

We now have 12 polls partially post-debate, and 10 conducted entirely post-debate. Biden trails Trump by 3.1% in polls wholly conducted post debate, for a margin shift of 1.8%. You can quibble some here - but the # of polls gives a good picture of the state of the race.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Perceptions of the Ohio and Pennsylvania Senate races are being enormously effect by right-wing polls. The last 3 neutral polls in Ohio are tied, Vance +2 and Vance +1.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

7 days

Biden dropped out at 2:00 PM 7/21. At that moment all of his delegates WERE UNDECLARED. 32 hours later Harris had enough delegates to win the nomination, which makes this the shortest presidential nomination contest in US history. Remember - every delegate was free.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

The key point to remember: with inflation over 8% the Democrats PICK UP a seat by winning seats that were very close in 2020. This is a historic accomplishment - which most of the press completely missed.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Make what of this what you will, but this is the best week of approval polling for Biden in over a year, in part it is driven by LV vrs. RV. Yougov: LV 🔵49 🔴50, RV 🔵47 🔴49, Adults 🔵43🔴 49 Morning Consult LV 46 🔵53 🔴, RV🔵 42 🔴56 Insider Advantage LV only 46 🔵 55 🔴

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

24 days

The first rule of politics - you can tell you are drawing blood by the other side's reaction.

Alex Leary

@learyreports

24 days

Trump distances himself from Project 2025. Comes as Dems increasingly try to focus attention on Trump policy agenda.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

We have the first county to flip: Baldwin goes from .5 Walker to .25 Warnock, on turnout of 91.1% of November.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

I keep waiting for the polls to flip to the GOP as they did in '14 - and maybe this is why it won't happen. Biden is at 47-52 among likely voters as opposed to 41-50 with all adults. Compare the 47 approval to the 43 strongly disapprove which has been important in the past.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

3 years

I have until October 30th to get an only partially effective vaccination shot or I will be fired. Of course, this happens every year - flu shots are required for employment at the hospital where I work.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

8 months

From my piece at @LauraRBelin . Polling has consistently understated the Democratic margin among African Americans, but polling in '22 was particularly bad.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

20 days

This isn't right. Senate D's are running well ahead of Biden and have been for months.

(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten

20 days

Downballot effects of a Biden loss are clear for Democrats. The House would likely be gone. GOP has opened up an edge on the generic ballot. If Biden loses, the chance of Democrats holding the Senate is close to zero because of the map and WV being an easy GOP pickup.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

1 month

Steve Schale, the best D strategist on Florida there is, once wrote friends do not let friends quote Quinnipiac. Their record in '16, '18 and '20 was abysmal. No one else is seeing the movement Q has seen. Toss them in the average - but always be skeptical.

Medium Buying

@MediumBuying

1 month

Quinnipiac Poll: Trump Pulls Ahead In Presidential Race -- Trump 49%, Biden 45% Trump 43%, Biden 37%, RFK Jr. 11%

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 months

@ForecasterEnten The polling in '22 missed massively among African Americans and is very similar to the polling now. Please do better research - there are very good reasons to think polling among African Americans is broken.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

7 months

Selzer warned she thought Haley would underperform her numbers. She was right.

umichvoter 🏳️‍🌈🥥🌴

@umichvoter

7 months

Results compared to Ann Selzer poll Trump +3 DeSantis +5 Haley -1 Ramaswamy =

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

This is the first cycle where I have actually seen pushback against RCP from pundits. RCP has no methodology and no transparency. I have a lot of respect for some of the writers there - but they have hidden from criticism for too long.

Ronald Brownstein

@RonBrownstein

2 years

RCP is simply a component of the R messaging machine, no more no less

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

1 year

@byHeatherLong @CoreyBCantor This is not true. The OLAF taxpayer money in. By the way you do realize that the fees on banks are paid by bank customers, right?

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

7 years

@DemFromCT @NateSilver538 Here's a radical idea: Democrats like Berne and Clinton. The "Base" sees less conflict than pundits do and people on twitter do.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

12 days

I cited InsideAdvantage yesterday - but it is hard to overestimate how bad they were in 2022. The WA poll in particular was awful, but they missed outside the MOE everywhere.

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

12 days

Can someone explain to me how Black voters, who were 29% of the electorate in Georgia in 2000, were only 2% of the respondents in this poll?

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

7 days

Take a moment to stop and think about what has been accomplished. A sitting president withdrew 31 hours ago - and in that time $250 million has been raised and individually elected Democratic Delegates have decided to support Harris. I have never seen anything like it.

dcg1114

@dcg1114

7 days

Total as of this moment: 1,397. Texas is on the phone - word is the entire delegation will vote for her, which nets another 231. MA (91) has a call tonight, NJ (125) had a call this afternoon (no news). That nets another 448, and gives Harris 1,845 - 130 delegates short.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Why do I keep my own averages? Can anyone explain why Fox is excluded from the RCP PA average?

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

25 days

23% say only Biden's age is a factor. But of that 23% nearly half are Republicans. Still, 17% of young people think only Biden's age is an issue, and 22% of Hispanics do. Those are critical parts of the D coalition - but it is important to note for most votes BOTH are too old.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 years

This is the '22 map for governor. Think of what would have happened if the Republicans held the Gov of WI/MI/PA. One result of '20 is that every political battle at the state level is now a proxy war for '24, and the GOP will absolutely overturn a state result if they can.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

5 months

@LoganDobson LOL. 2022 last Emerson polls: AZ tied 48-48, Kelly won by 5 NV Laxalt +5, Cortez Mastro won by .8. You are aware people can look up things on the internet and identify intentional obfuscation, right?

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

1 month

This is our first real poll - and from a VERY good pollster - SurveyUSA. LV all today - Trump 45, Biden 43. BY 55-34 Dems say Biden should be the nominee - those are hardly great numbers - but they are good enough to prevent a challenge. They had Trump up 5 in February - 44-49

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Emerson leaned right in 2022: NH D+4 (was D+9) AZ Tied (D+4) GA D+2, close WI R+4 (R+1) PA R+1 (D+4) NC R+5 (R+3.5) NV R+5 (D+.7) I don't buy Biden's approval at 39 in this poll.

M L C

@ChiCyph80

2 years

Ok ok, nobody wants to talk '24 yet but some interesting data from an Emerson poll released today: - Biden +4 against Trump and DeSantis (more undecided against DeSantis) - Trump +30 over DeSantis - Generic Ballot at D+2 (their last poll had R+5)

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 months

This is far more meaningful in terms of the November result than most of the stuff discussed in pundit articles.

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

2 months

* highest Conference Board since March * highest expectations since Feb @CNBC #ConfBd

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

5 years

Without commenting on this case, as a former prosecutor, I have no doubt people confess to things they did not do. A skillful detective, without being coercive, can certainly manipulate someone into believing they have no other alternative.

Rebecca Kavanagh

@DrRJKavanagh

5 years

Oh and before a million people say, but the DNA, please read this:

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 months

Another data point calling into question the Siena polling of Nevada (which suggested the House races might be competitive).

Jon Ralston

@RalstonReports

2 months

“The decision reflects national Republicans’ increasing belief that the three Democrat-represented seats in Southern Nevada are not worth the return on investment.” Big news and reality check for GOP House candidates (mostly motley crew here) via @birenbomb .

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

The state of play in the Senate as of this minute. Big picture there is really only 1 true 100% tossup: Nevada. Two states are close, OH and NC but are thought likely to go GOP. The Dems have decent leads in AZ/PA/GA, though PA is in flux given Fetterman's health.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

It says a good deal about the state of play that this race is not close. Biden's favorable rating in the state is 44% 55% negative yet Bennet is at 50 and leads by 9. In a "wave" election this would be competitive.

Data for Progress

@DataProgress

2 years

NEW CO POLL: Senator Michael Bennet leads Joe O’Dea by 9% in the Colorado Senate race. In the governor’s race, Jared Polis leads Heidi Ganahl 56-39%.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 months

So this is the story of the election right now. I think Trump has consolidated the GOP base, but Biden has not consolidated the D base. You see that also when you look in the Siena polling and compare the D Senate numbers versus the Biden D numbers.

World's Biggest CroSStab Hater #BanCroSStabs

@schlagteslinks

3 months

OK nvm false alarm, it's because Democrats and Biden 2020 voters are far less consolidated than Republicans and Trump 2020 voters (look at the neither/other numbers) Not much persuasion happening here

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

18 days

You can take the average Trump speech and find 10X mistakes like this one.

The Spectator Index

@spectatorindex

18 days

Biden accidentally calls Ukraine's leader 'President Putin'

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

@ThePlumLineGS @tbonier Straight averages separated by pollster lean. I am amazed no one is doing this. Republican pollsters are seeing very different results. Maybe they are right - but they are not reconcilable with other pollsters.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

The state of play as of this morning:: 1. Biden's approval rating in relative terms is higher in the midwest versus '20, lower in AZ/NV. 2. Given the disapproval #'s GOP candidate quality is an issue in AZ/NH/PA/OH (compare GOP # to disapprove). 3. 5 races within 3 points.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

3 months

The story is the share of white college-educated voters in the electorate. Biden leads among this group 59-41. This group is 27% of all adults, 29% of registered voters and 33% of likely voters.

Michael McDonald

@ElectProject

3 months

NPR/Marist poll has Biden +3 among registered voters, +7 among likely voters, continuing a pattern where he performs best among likely voters Trump has a problem energizing his support beyond his hardcore base

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

I am going to write about this - but as I have noted well over half the battleground races had polling errors of LARGER than 3 points in '16/'18/'20.

Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

2 years

I mean, you could see something like the GOP picking up AZ/NH if the bottom really falls out for Democrats. Alternatively, if we're all wrong in our turnout models again, it's not a *huge* stretch to get Dems holding the House.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

28 days

538 gives them an A/B rating , though they had Bolduc up one over Hassan, and Hassan won by 8. This is a 9 point swing from '20 - consistent with a 4.6 Trump national lead. In '20 they had Biden up 8 and he won by 7.4%. They have had a decent primary record. Not good.

Adam Sexton

@AdamSextonWMUR

28 days

New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error #NHPolitics #FITN #WMUR

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 years

@rp_griffin @DemocracyFund @UCLA This is Nat every poll that released x-tabs by Party. Two things to note: 1. Trump's net among Republicans is consistently lower than Biden's net among Democrats by an average of 5 points. 2. Bidens lead among independents averages about 14 points.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

@billscher The idea "progressives" chased her out of the party is just dumb. She dug her own grave - and has united moderate and progressive Dems against her. But that does not fit your narrative.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

1 month

A significant result for the House. PPIC finds the Dems lead by 20 points (59-39) in the 10 seats in California rated as competitive. If the Dems win the 4 CA tossup seats and the 1 leaning R seat they would net 5 seats from CA alone and make retaking the House VERY likely.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

19 days

@Redistrict I have seen this before. Please look at the history - because polling always understates the D Margin.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

6 months

The x-tab everyone should be looking at this morning. Only 22% of Biden '20 voters are worried about his age. The vast majority of those saying Biden's age is an issue voted for Trump. I guarantee few in the National News Media will note just how partisan this issue is.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

This is completely wrong. With 8% inflation, the Dems have fought the R's to a draw in battleground states that are to the right of center. If the GOP can't win in this environment how can they EVER win? That the press does not get this just astounds me.

Meet the Press

@MeetThePress

2 years

. @chucktodd : “The problem with polarization is that neither party loses by enough to look in the mirror and make the needed changes."

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

3 months

@ForecasterEnten The NV poll in particular is not believable. The GA poll is outside of the consensus as well.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

26 days

We now have 12 polls partially post-debate, and 10 conducted entirely post-debate. Biden trails Trump by 3.1% in polls wholly conducted post debate, for a margin shift of 1.8%. You can quibble some here - but the # of polls gives a good picture of the state of the race.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

The entire "popularism" discussion has always been assymetrical. Only Democratic Policy position matter in them. It is assumed that the Repbulicans will never pay a price for their positions no matter how extreme they become.

Jeet Heer

@HeerJeet

2 years

It's absolutely the case that much of what popularists and reactionary centrists (overlapping categories) say about the Dems applies much more to GOP. Yet that part of their analysis is curiously missing.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

6 months

These votes will not be counted - in order for votes to be tallied in NH they have to be for a person.

Katrina vandenHeuvel

@KatrinaNation

6 months

New Hampshire Primary Voters Can Send Biden a Powerful Message About Gaza/A campaign to write in word “cease-fire” seeks to pressure the administration to shift its policy. @NicholsUprising

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

1 month

CNN flash numbers Only Trump 48 Only Biden 40 5% changed their minds Favorable Biden went from 37 to 31 Trump went from 40 to 43 CNN said this poll had more Republicans that would be typical. Pretty muted reaction in the end - but in a race this close small changes matter.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

11 days

Among the truly terrible ideas, an open convention is just the absolute worst.

Mark Halperin

@MarkHalperin

11 days

BREAKING NEWS: Multiples sources outline the apparent state of play on Biden at this time: * plans to announce withdrawal from nomination as early as this weekend, with Sunday most likely * Jon Meacham polishing up remarks * Biden with NOT resign the presidency * Biden will

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

1 year

@matthewstoller @Atrios The FDIC uses money from the Orderly Liquidation Authority to backstop depositors. This money is ABSOLUTELY taxpayer money, though it is supposed to be a loan to allow orderly resolution of the bank. But there is a lot of lying going on right now.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

21 days

I have repeatedly posted I do NOT believe the shifts among Blacks/Hispanics/the young are real, because this is a rematch where 90% have STRONG opinions about one of the candidates.

Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

21 days

The results overall and by subgroups RVs come very close to a compilation of the last five NYT/Siena polls, which add up to a similar n=5000 sample size.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

1 month

From an Ipsos Panel sponsored by 538. This suggests the debate effect is minimal. Perhaps most importantly, the favorability numbers for each candidate did not move - the importance of which I wrote about at Crystal Ball yesterday.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

2 years

Updated. Fetterman still ahead. WI still close. GA/NV looking like they will be decisive. Emerson has a good record but are definitely right of center and having an effect on the averages.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

1 month

Over the last 45 days, Biden has led in national polling. He has led state polling since March, which is .85% more favorable for Biden than national polling. When this gap has opened up in the past the state polling is almost always more accurate in the end.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

13 days

There is ZERO evidence that the division over Biden and the nomination has ANY effect on D support for either Biden or Harris. The argument is tactical - not ideological (which is where analogies to '68 and '80 fail).

Nick Riccardi

@NickRiccardi

13 days

This but also a lot of people said this after the 2016 conventions w the parties switched

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 years

$155 MILLION has been reserved on Iowa TV for the Senate race. AND IT'S SEPTEMBER!

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 years

@xenocryptsite Indeed. To be clear I am damn near a worthless volunteer (I am shy and it is hard for me to canvass) but there were others who were very far from useless. It is tough.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 years

As I said a few days ago, I expect more of this. If the GOP pursued this aggressively, their EC advantage could get as big as 5.5, meaning a 5.5 point national win would produce a tie in the EC. A modest proposal: A Fl referendum to split the EC votes (D's could net 10 EV's).

Taniel

@Taniel

4 years

The GOP is proposing legislation in New Hampshire to divide the state's electoral votes, apparently thinking they can secure at least one extra electoral vote out of this. (This will likely be paired with a more aggressive map that endangers one of the two House Dems.)

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

7 days

From @VanceUlrich CA will be unanimous. That takes Harris to over 53% of the delegates needed for nomination.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

23 days

This is big news. Very big.

Jim Clyburn

@ClyburnSC06

23 days

15 million new jobs. 21 million Americans are now insured under the ACÁ. The cost of insulin is capped at $35/month for seniors on Medicare. That’s just a fraction of what @JoeBiden has been able to deliver. There is no one better suited to continue this country’s progress than

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

6 years

@studentactivism His father is on deployment to Syria on behalf of his country. And this is what happens to his son.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

20 days

@ForecasterEnten Nope - data strongly suggests D Senators are outrunning Biden massively. Don't be surprised to see D Senators make the argument that Trump's needs to be checked.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

6 years

@NRO @charlescwcooke The only way this wording makes sense is if he chose to be touched by tragedy. The utter lack of decency displayed by the NRO is astounding.

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

4 years

Doors closed. Bernie Buttigieg and warren viable. Biden May not be

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dcg1114

@dcg1114

6 months

@mikekadlick @espn Let's face it: Mac Jones didn't have the strength to throw a 25 yard out pattern. He was never close to a good enough athlete to play in the NFL. Josh Allen threw a pass 63 yards on target last Sunday. Get a guy like him - because the modern NFL requires that kind of talent.

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