🚨Here's a Biden update from news headquarters. The decision has been made that the President will quit the campaign. Two reasons: Democrat internal polling says he cannot recover from the debate, and fundraising is drying up. (1/2)
#JoeBiden
The GOP choosing to avoid going after the 3 seats in Las Vegas is most likely a sign that they don't believe in and/or are not seeing any kind of generational realignment in their internal polling.
Biden's schedule is absolutely blank. Meanwhile, Emily Goodin reports Biden was "visibly shaking" as he exited AF1 in CA on Tuesday morning, and needed a boost from Secret Service agents just to get into his SUV.
Who is running the country?
@ChiCyph80
I don't believe that's true at all. There's few scenarios that Biden loses in a landslide. His floor is a lot higher come November than an unknown candidate going against a former president.
@schlagteslinks
Let's just say that the Dem held districts show no signs of bleeding for Dems and that trump has a pretty hard ceiling in Nevada with the undecided as overwhelmingly negative against him.
At this point, I'd be stunned if Biden didn't win NV by 2020 margins.
First poll fully taken after Trump’s attempted assassination
Biden *gained* by 1 point
It’s Morning Consult so take it with a grain of salt but no “sympathy bump” at least from this survey
Democrats are really leaning into the “convicted felon” thing despite pressure from criminal justice reformers to dispense w that kind of language and acknowledge that justice-impacted people are also voters
All I'm going to say is that public polling is missing the mark on Harris/Walz number. Trump is at his ceiling privately, like I've been telling you, and Harris/Walz consistently hitting 50% in swing states.
@dothejackal
I don't believe that's true at all. He's not losing in NH, but if he was, the Democrats are swamped anyway. Like, if you believe polling that shows NY within single digits and Virginia and NH going red, I don't know what to tell you.
My first flight went about as well as loose change in a cockpit – literally.
My last flight brought my crew home from the
@Space_Station
and was Space Shuttle Endeavour’s final flight.
It’s not about how good you are when you start, it’s about how good you push yourself to be.
But she's also got another problem: it's been a while since we've seen a poll showing Harris leading in Pennsylvania.
A high-quality poll showing Harris ahead in PA would make a big difference right now.
It's funny seeing the cosplay socialists respond to this in the exact way you think they will. Like, they can't organize a successful protest, but they're totally gonna start the socialist revolution.
Trump: For 52 years, from the beginning of Roe v. Wade, people wanted to get it out. Many presidents tried and were unable. I want to thank the justices who overturned Roe
@AllisonRFloyd
I remember going to get my wife pads a few years ago and while I was waiting in line, some guy said "haha, I can't imagine buying those and not being embarrassed" and I just said "well, my wife kind of needs them so she doesn't bleed everywhere, so..."
@DailyTrix
@keatingssixth
The fact that they can't even understand what they're saying. They're accepted at our rallies and are allowed to be heard, unlike the other guy and absolutely nothing clicks in their heads. Nothing.
A source says Zients will emphasize “importance of keep doing the work and executing on our mission”
But it comes amid outrage from some staff over transparency about Biden and his ability to do the job
In case anyone still cares, here's a short thread on how an online rumor takes off:
Amid rumors that Taylor Swift or Beyonce would perform at the DNC, this blue check account with 600,000 followers tweeted at 12:28 PM CT that a "big surprise" was on the way. The tweet took off.
Bizarre write-up on the TIPP website: This is headline. You'd think from this that the TIPP poll had a 'swing state' component, but when you look at the article, it looks like that's just based on... Polymarket? Am I missing something?
(Also, what 'claims'?)
@schlagteslinks
Obviously, this is just the largest realignment of minority voters in 60 years taking place that is propelling trump to historic numbers. Poll denial will not be tolerated.
This would be a big boost for Trump. In
@CookPolitical
Swing State project survey, RFK voters in swing states are more likely to be Trump voter (46%) than Harris (26%)
@Zprtr1
I'd look at pollsters a little more leniently if they had it like 39-30 trump. But trump nearing 60% of the youth vote? Come on, what are we even doing?
There's just some trends Republicans can't stop and for some reason people deny the reality.
Maricopa going Dem. Atlanta and it's burbs continuing to grow. Dane becoming even stronger. Texas rurals maxing out for Republicans.
It's all right there.
The Wisconsin GOP has an absolutely massive Dane County problem. This county continues to grow AND get bluer.
You’re not winning anything when Dane is voting 82-18 in an off cycle ballot question
NH is a recently former swing state. Chill. It costs nothing to go there and solidify support one or two times. She's introducing herself to an electorate, this is smart.
The Harris campaign has seen a massive surge in energy on the ground, with nearly 30k people signing up to volunteer for the first time since yesterday.
@AG12187575
@schlagteslinks
I've been in politics for nearly 16 years. I've seen private numbers from no less than a half dozen organizations over the past two months. These organizations and people have no incentive to lie about the state of the campaign in private settings as that benefits nobody.
@atk825
@DanaHoule
Like, even if we wanted to move on to a new candidate, which I don't, why would we move on from a successful presidency and a likable President?! Makes no sense whatsoever.
@zecat12386745
@schlagteslinks
Legit, no need to doom right now whatsoever. All we're experiencing is a checked out electorate that isn't going to care about the election until they need to.
I'm an optimistic doomer, but I say this with full confidence: no need to panic whatsoever.
The suburban collapse of Republicans that has been evident since 2018 and in their own primary was always going to doom them. Real possibility Republicans face a dam breaking similar to Dems with rurals.
Trump & his campaign are fine tuning their political operation in the lead-up to Nov — with plans to aggressively ramp up his schedule, hone his debate skills & cultivate a new ground-game strategy tied to the early voting states
More with
@scontorno
"Polling is expensive, and we can't just poll every race...also, here's a poll of West Virginia with a candidate who is no longer running in a state that isn't competitive."
#NEW
West Virginia Poll:
Donald Trump 61% (+27)
Joe Biden 34%
———
Senate:
Jim Justice (R) 62% (+34)
Glenn Elliot (D) 28%
———
Governor:
Patrick Morrisey (R) 49% (+14)
Steve Williams (D) 35%
Research America/
@WVMetroNews
, 400 LV, 8/21-27
@SpecialPuppy1
My theory is that Harris was doing worse than Biden in their model and they're waiting until she's doing at least as well or otherwise what to do about that.
Trump rallies are boring. I’m on a plane with excellent WiFi (thank you
@HawaiianAir
) but I’m rewatching Olympic basketball instead. It’s not so much that people hate him more than they did. It’s just that they’re over it.
Underrated how shitty he looks as the days go by. He sounds worse every time, which is why they limit his visibility, but his physical is falling apart rapidly.
Lmao, like, two weeks ago, there's wasn't much time left for the race to change, but now that trump is losing, time is infinite on this campaign.
*Good poll for Democrats* "Ah, well, we need more data."
*Good poll for Republicans* "It's over. Democrats should concede now."
I do think we should treat this a bit like we're in the middle of a convention bump. The huge swing in public opinion over the last few weeks shows that the public's views of her are far from stable. We will see whether this lasts when the going gets tougher for Harris
@AG12187575
@schlagteslinks
Honestly, I think it comes down to incentive structure for getting solid results. Internal numbers don't focus as much on h2h numbers, but look for deeper meaning behind support or lack thereof. Public polls design surveys for headlines and clicks, campaigns do so for a road map.
My wife and I have been through this process are currently going through this process. Many doctors use the term IVF to broadly speak about this. IUI is sometimes covered through insurance, so doctors recommend trying it first. It's all the same journey.
Fucking christ.
It’s almost like they feel so aggrieved that people correctly perceive JD Vance as a weird freak that they’re going into overdrive trying to create a negative equivalency between Vance and him. But why are you wasting this much energy on attacking the VP nom?
I've seen the media actively work against specific candidates in the past (Kerry, Clinton), but I never recall a time where the media actively rooted for a specific candidate.
🚨🚨 Former President Trump is adjusting his agenda, the GOP platform, his vice-presidential plans — even his debate style — to win over more than a half-dozen persuadable voter groups in seven states, advisers tell us.
@Zprtr1
Absolutely agree. Feels like polls are telling us he's at his ceiling, give or take a point or so, and his campaign is campaigning like it.
The trump campaign seems to be counting on Kennedy, West and Stein to do the rest.
@RachelMoiselle
I remember reading this around the time this interview was published, and I think it's very relevant to how Jews are being treated across the world from media and private citizens due to coverage. Maybe you'll find it as interesting.
This is where I've been, even with Biden, for a long time. I'd be stunned if Kamala lost one of the core battleground states and she'll win by a larger margin than Biden-Harris in 2020. I've seen very little evidence to suggest otherwise.
It’s so simple. We will not help you win if you do not stop arming a genocide.
I will not vote for the murderer of our people. Rather than demand lives be saved, democrats, people I’ve voted with in every single election, are attacking that decision 1/
1. I'm sorry, but that drains every credibility Silver has left.
2. We can't be 100% certain he isn't integrating polymarket into his model, despite what he says.
3. Who is driving who here: Silver's model or polymarket?
4. Never trust anything associated with Peter Thiel.
@AllisonRFloyd
It's so eye opening, in a terrible way, when I hear fellow men talk about periods and blood. Like, even as someone who hates blood, it's natural and not a big deal. I dont get it.
GEN Z REPORT: Every teenage boy I know who is 18 can't wait to vote for Trump-Vance.
We owe it to these boys to do whatever it takes to make sure their 20s aren't spent trying to survive the hellscape of a Kamalapocalypse.
So, trump is sick, yes? We can all agree on that? Like, we know he's mentally sick, but he's physically sick. Looks and sounds even more horrific than usual.
In my opinion, he's worse than Palin. I didn't think that was possible and I for sure thought that Palin would be the worst VP pick of my lifetime, but you should never doubt Republicans not meeting your already dirt level expectations.
Again, it's the ceiling. I sound like a broken record, but this guy hasn't expanded his voting base in 8 years. 2016 really broke peoples brains, thinking he did something special. He didn't. His victory relied on depressed Dem turnout and enough third-party votes.
One of the strongest assets of the Obama campaign infrastructure was the lack of leaks. The "No Drama Obama" was borne out of a campaign that was disciplined with no leaks.
Harris is showing that ability right now. Huge plus.
No leaks from Harris’ team on the VP pick is incredible for a few reasons:
• It shows just how disciplined her core team is, as they were during the Biden dropout saga — which would bode well for her potential administration
• It is driving impatient people absolutely insane
The "you should suffer for my belief that everyone is suffering" will forever be the roadblock to these people ever getting real power. It's selfish and self-serving to dismiss the plight others will feel while you're safe and sound.
Fun fact. Ren lives in New York. She has access to women's healthcare and can get an abortion at any time.
The creator lives in Texas. She will be charged with murder if she tries to get an abortion of any kind.
Vote Blue. Save America. Women in red states are suffering.
It’s a sign of how much Kamala is an emergency nominee - and her inability to run on continuity - that we’re in Sept and a leading party ally says her policies are “still in formulation”
Feels like the same people who wanted a primary and couldn't find a viable candidate, also want to replace President Biden now.
There's no do-overs you fucking weirdos.
Pretty contrasting campaign schedules this week for Harris and Trump:
@KamalaHQ
is hitting seven swing states over five days while
@realDonaldTrump
has just a single campaign event on the calendar for the week in Montana.
Here's why if you count the stars in the night sky tonight and you divide by the population of the reddest county in America that it's now mathematically impossible for Harris to win
(⭐️State Presidential, Senate Averages, and Generic Ballot Lead Available For Twitter Subscribers ⭐️)
Average National Presidential Polling Lead:
Harris +4.3%
- August 24, 2024 -
Since a lot of you are either too young to really remember 2008 or didn't care about politics until recently, one of the big moments of the campaign was Obama reclaiming the patriotism support for Democrats.
Harris is doing that now, and it will play tremendous in the burbs.
@AG12187575
@schlagteslinks
I've been in politics for nearly 16 years. I've seen private numbers from no less than a half dozen organizations over the past two months. These organizations and people have no incentive to lie about the state of the campaign in private settings as that benefits nobody.
Lmao, she lost her Democratic primary and is now a Republican.
The Texas legislature doesn't reconvene again until after her term expires.
This **literally** doesn't matter.
A thread 🧵 1/ of x
As a woman, a mother, and a lawmaker, I have dedicated my life to championing the values that fortify our families and uplift our communities. After much reflection, prayer, and soul-searching, I have come to a decision that aligns with my core values and the
@Zprtr1
Al Gore famously blew off New Hampshire down the stretch in 2000. There's nothing lost by making a campaign stop in a recently former swing state. There's little roi on just sitting in MI, PA and WI.
The media is very East Coast focused though, you've gotta be pretty naive to think the prolonged DNC tonight is for any reason other than diminishing Biden’s visibility.
Idk why people follow him. Does no one remember 2020 with Florida, where he was following the mail-in ballots and had no idea what he was saying?
He's a dooming douche who has a very unhealthy media diet.