Joshua Shifrinson @Le_Shif Twitter profile

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

Many of the same people who warned against the Iraq War now warn against offering Ukraine membership in NATO; conversely, many of those who argued for Iraq argue for Ukrainian membership. Maybe it's time to listen to those with a proven record

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

I've contributed an essay on NATO enlargement & U.S. national security to "American Diplomacy." Given that the other authors are William Courtney, Steve Pifer, Hans Binnendijk, and Rob Pearson, you might guess that I'm the contrarian. You would be right.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

@JustinTLogan & I have a Foreign Affairs essay today arguing that the post-war US mission in Europe - avoiding a hegemon - has been accomplished. Thus the US can & should pivot to other priorities, while burden-shifting European security to local actors.

A Post-American Europe

It’s time for Washington to Europeanize NATO and give up responsibility for the continent’s security.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

There are many, many things wrong with today's @WSJ piece on the "Rising Axis of Autocracies." This line, though, may take the cake. Did no editor push the reporter to speak to a single China expert on what China - located in Asia, btw - may really care about?

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

How odd. I was emailed back in May to attend and participate in a NATO Public Forum on July 10-11, concurrent with the summit. A few days after signing the letter on Ukraine with @stephenwertheim & @WillRuger , I'm now informed that I'm instead on the "wait list" for the event.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

As someone who's written on this for a bit, a few thoughts: 1) Where did JJM or another self-identified realist (myself included) say "Ukraine better-not-invade-Russia"? We've arg'd that there are dangerous escalatory risks that we (US) ought to stay away from. Not the same thing

Lucan Ahmad Way

@LucanWay

3 months

Why the silence about Ukraine's invasion of Russia by Mearsheimer and the "better-not invade Russia-or-else crowd"? Did I miss something?

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

I do not know Prof. Semetko, but the casting of aspersion is striking. Neither Justin nor I support Project 2025; based on research & analysis, we've long advocated rebalancing US responsibilities. One wonders why a leading researcher goes ideological rather than engage the arg

Holli Semetko

@HolliSemetko

3 months

The inward-looking position advocated in this @ForeignAffairs article=diehard believers in radical Project 2025. Is @CFR_org now advocating Project 2025's dollar devaluation? Seriously? via @ForeignAffairs

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

Remarkable. A single tweet in which LTG Hodges discounts the importance of operating below Russian red lines, de facto calls for open-ended occupation of Russia, and imagines that Germany and Japan magically became close allies post-45. With experts like this, who needs RKF Jr?

Ben Hodges

@general_ben

2 months

Unbelievable. Why is Admin afraid allowing UKR to use ATACMS inside Russia will make it hard to reset relations with Russia after the war? JPN/DEU are close allies post WWII. And why do we want to re-set relations with the current Kremlin? via @politico

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

I'm also pleased to be a signatory. To those arguing this undercuts Kyiv's negotiating leverage, note that NATO membership is not up to Kyiv - it's up to the allies. To those claiming Kyiv wasn't going to join NATO soon, there's merit in warning against the long-term risk.

Stephen Wertheim

@stephenwertheim

4 months

I'm pleased to have signed this open letter calling for NATO not to move Ukraine toward membership at this week's summit. The letter, released last week in @politico , is published today in @guardianopinion :

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

Bracketing that Robert is misreading the piece, he's also confusing the Q of aid to Ukr. That US aid "is a fraction of our natsec spending" is irrelevant to the question of whether this spending increases the risk of the US being pulled into a war w/Rus. Bottom line: it does.

Robert E Kelly

@Robert_E_Kelly

3 months

This is wrong. Providing military aid to partners is not war. The US has done this for a century That US assistance to Ukraine - which is a fraction of our natsec spending - is actually a war against Russia is a Trump talking point.This is why people think the NYT wants T to win

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

Alexander S. Vindman 🇺🇸

@AVindman

4 months

I served in the embassies in both Russia & Ukraine, have a Masters from Harvard in Russia & Ukraine studies, a Johns Hopkins Masters & Doctorate in international affairs, & my next book covers the modern history of US-Russia-Ukraine relations but go ahead debate the war with me.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

This is a bad kind of essentialism. NATO is an alliance. Alliances are based on interests & capacity; as interests & state capabilities change, so do alliances. Thus, NATO's prob today isn't US reassurance: it's that US & Euro interests/capacity aren't the same today as in 1949.

Wolfgang Ischinger

@ischinger

5 months

@RussCanRead @ElbridgeColby Sir it is surely not my but your job to reassure your European allies about America‘s determination to remain firmly committed to Nato, and to the security of Europe. As far as I can see, ongoing doubts in this regards were not created by the European side of the Alliance.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

V. important! Just as there was no united "Communist bloc" during the Cold War, so is there no alignment of "autocracies"/"disruptors" today. Instead, states are (1) balancing the US/US partners for their own reasons, & (2) pursuing their own interests. Alignment is incidental.

Jennifer Kavanagh

@jekavanagh

3 months

In @ForeignPolicy , @DanDePetris & I argue that treating China, Iran, North Korea, & Russia as an "axis of evil" (or upheaval, disorder, authoritarians, etc) overstates the endurance & coherence of what are largely transactional, bilateral partnerships.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

Since "the global order" isn't an independent actor but (nominally) a set of institutions & norms promulgated by states, Dr. Rice's 1st point simply means "great powers interact." Yet since great powers often interact w/o dominating one another, the 2nd claim is patently false.

Condoleezza Rice

@CondoleezzaRice

2 months

If the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries taught Americans anything, it is this: other great powers don’t mind their own business. Instead, they seek to shape the global order. The future will be determined by the alliance of democratic, free-market states or it will be

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@ElbridgeColby Wait, you shouldn't assign labels - but calling people isolationist or appeasers is cool? More seriously, no one believes there's a "free lunch." The debate is really over whether the US can bank on other countries balancing for their own reasons, & what the US can afford

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

No, this isn't right. First, we absolutely said "no" to the CEE states in 1991-1993. Second, enlargement was not "primarily the choice" of CEE states since enlargement - by defn - can only happen w/the approval of NATO's existing members TLDR: enlargement resulted from US policy

Angus Lapsley

@ACWLapsley

2 months

@AmbDanFried Of course US policy choices mattered. But to be in NATO today is to be reminded daily that enlargement was primarily the choice of the free(d) democracies of Central/Eastern Europe, and now 🇫🇮 🇸🇪 . The idea that we would have said no doesn’t stack up. Some things are just right.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

"Realistic about your campaign-timed article." Again, casting aspersions and suggesting ulterior motivations. I welcome an argument about the substance.

Holli Semetko

@HolliSemetko

3 months

I'm as realistic about your U.S. campaign-timed article @Le_Shif as @MoD_Estonia @LV_NATO @LitdelNATO are about the "hegemon" that hates @NATO & kills innocents. Had radical GOP not stopped aid for #Ukraine for months, the war could have ended with thousands of lives saved

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

Even if this domino logic were true - and it isn't - it's notable that Mr. McMaster doesn't actually say that US interests are harmed. So, it seems that the US can be "weak" (note: the US isn't weak) and still be perfectly secure.

H.R. McMaster

@LTGHRMcMaster

3 months

It has been three years. The consequences for Afghans, Ukrainians, and Israelis have been disastrous. The cascading crises we have experienced since the stain of August 2021 are connected to our adversaries’ perception that America is weak.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

Yeah, an invasion of Russia that advances less than 50km, at a time when Russia is grinding toward winning the overall war, and is avowedly not meant to be permanent definitely shows that nuclear escalation is bunk. Let's revisit all our theoretical & policy assumptions.

Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

2 months

Far from a nuclear state losing a chunk of its territory to invasion being an issue that will trigger a nuclear response--now the Kremlin is trying to convince the Russian people its the "new normal". The entire nuclear escalation ladder as constructed is collapsing around us.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

3) There's a real puzzle as to why Russian hasn't escalated further. It could be that the operation isn't that serious from Moscow's POV; it could be that Russian red lines aren't where we thought. Regardless, we should be very careful: when red lines are unclear, miscalc is easy

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

Contra McMaster, this is a good thing. The Founders rightly created a system where the military's role is limited; ditto, in a society where civilians set policy & the military accepts civilian rule, we should not want a "warrior ethos" to pervade politics

H.R. McMaster: Trump, Biden ‘disconnected’ from warrior ethos

Former national security adviser H.R. McMaster said he believes both former President Trump and President Biden are “disconnected” from military values. “President Biden and President Trump are jus…

thehill.com

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

No: 1. The "order" doesn't keep the US safe & prosperous. It is created & maintained by states - it doesn't have independent effects 2. Ukr isn't central to the order: not an ally, not in key institutions, etc 3. Challengers have interests & threats (incl US) that drive choices

Foreign Affairs

@ForeignAffairs

2 months

“Ukraine is a canary in the coal mine of how emboldened countries like Russia feel in attempting to overturn an international order that has kept the United States largely safe and prosperous.”

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

Echoing @PatPorter76 , I'm not so sure. First, Biden has done many things that are not restrained, but he's no Clinton or W. Bush. Plus, structural forces are imposing themselves & will continue regardless. Also, "fight only when we have to" is doing a lot of ill-defined lifting.

The American Conservative

@amconmag

4 months

JD Vance on American foreign policy: "If you want your kid to go and fight in some stupid globalist war, vote for Joe Biden. But if you want to send American Marines and soldiers to fight only when we have to, vote for Donald Trump."

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

The opening gives away the flawed foundations of this argument. Engaging Russia is not appeasement; accepting that bad things happen in world politics, which you may have to accept for vital (essential) interests, is not so much tragedy but reality.

Yaroslav Trofimov

@yarotrof

2 months

Should the West seek to appease Russia to focus on China, a so-called “reverse Kissinger?” Or should it do a “Deng 2.0,” biding time and hiding intentions with China while focusing its capabilities on Russia? And is it even possible to treat the interconnected world crises

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

In fact, Robert was criticizing an article in the @nytimes that quoted @stephenwertheim . Please do a better literature review.

Holli Semetko

@HolliSemetko

3 months

@Robert_E_Kelly & I criticized a @ForeignAffairs article by @CatoInstitute authors who fear Putin given the post below, & ignore the real costs of the ground war in Europe #Ukraine cyberattacks & disinformation. @Tsahkna @krisjaniskarins @ABaerbock

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

2) Many of us have argued that the war is basically at stalemate and, under these/plausible future conditions, Ukr would be wise to explore a peace deal (that's advice, not an edict). Kursk doesn't change this strategic picture; in a way, given Ukr policy, it supports our arg.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

Surely my conservative friends - those who emphasize family values - will publicly disavow Ann Coulter's attack on a neuro-divergent minor for (checks notes) breaking down when his father was nominated for the second-highest office in the land.

Ben Wexler

@mrbenwexler

2 months

Ann, you’re a fucking monster.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

Bingo! It's also consistent with U.S. policy since the war began, if you consider the steps that the US could have but did not take against Moscow in order to preserve a possible bridge. Examples include: maintaining diplomatic ties, not voiding the NATO-Russia Founding Act. 1/

Jennifer Kavanagh

@jekavanagh

2 months

I'm not sure why this is a "bombshell." The administration's priority is--rightly--to protect U.S. national security. In the long-run, that will include re-establishing a relationship w/ Moscow. That was a given from the start, regardless of Kyiv's preferences.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

I missed my calling as a carnival barker.

David Polansky

@polanskydj

3 months

@dandcaldwell @JustinTLogan @Le_Shif For reasons that escape me, Shifrinson makes people on here angrier than like actual criminals do

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

I hope you're not comparing gross medal counts. After all, when measuring polarity and deciding whether unipolarity is over based on olympic performance, we needed finer measures. In fact, all that really matters is who won...the pole vault. I'll see myself out.

William Wohlforth

@WCWohlforth

3 months

Hmm. Stand by for Steve Brooks's and my forthcoming article: when you control for awesomeness of the sports involved, Olympics show continued robust US unipolarity.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

Let's see if a friendly email clarifies the situation...

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

1 year

Hegemony makes states stupid.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@jekavanagh It's really one of the worst pieces of journalism I've seen recently, and that's saying something.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

1/ The letter reported by @politico urging Biden to define victory for Ukraine is really something. The below passage esp is remarkable in its combination of threat inflation (the order will crumble!) & conflation of US interests w/Ukr interests

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 years

only gives me the option of a Sunday flight (no good). This is absurd - esp b/c there is a flight to Chicago leaving out of DCA this evening that I COULD take if only someone would reach out. Of course, this assumes the DCA flight is still on time. Just insulting. 2/2

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

@EmmaMAshford Look, I'm here to promote work, learn about others' research, and call out charlatans. I'm not going to be all THAT active.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

Looking for articles or books on international relations/security/foreign policy topics that combine game theory/experiments with archival research. Any suggestions?

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

@PatPorter76 I'm pretty sure FDR "let me run for president, work on the great depression, and manage WW2 while dealing with a major physical handicap at a time when society just didn't accommodate such issues" gets a win on points.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@pstanpolitics As someone in the process of designing exactly such a major, I STRONGLY agree -- and have been very surprised at the level of faculty resistance to the idea that undergrads need some kind of skill or substantive area of expertise. The push for "generalists" is real.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

1 year

It gives you "hegemonic blinders."

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

Mmmm. "Paradigm wars are done and realism is wrong" is not the logically consistent and compelling burn that he thinks.

Robert Farley

@drfarls

4 months

Now that the Paradigm Wars are done and gone, even the term “Realist” doesn’t carry any content apart from the author’s desire to strike a pose.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

cc: @EmmaMAshford @stephenwertheim @WillRuger

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

Kind of an odd juxtaposition, claiming the law "does not criminalize working for a foreign principal," yet also avowing that think tanks subject "the decisions of government officials...to the scrutiny of outside analysts." One MIGHT wonder about some potential problems here...

Josh Gerstein

@joshgerstein

3 months

NEW: Former Obama White House counsel Greg Craig, who was acquitted in a big DOJ foreign agent case, rips #FARA prosecution of DC think tanker Sue Mi Perry. Calls claims/photos 'gratuitous & prejudicial.' Via @just_security

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

Assistant professor's path to tenure "irreversible," mentors declare in faculty meeting

Ukraine’s path to NATO membership ‘irreversible,’ allies expected to declare

The expected decision would be a major win for Ukraine and make the Washington summit among NATO’s most historic in its 75-year history.

www.politico.com

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

@shashj Very, very, VERY loosely. I don't plan to do much. Which, to be fair, is also a statement of my career.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

Oh, and just because I can't help it: the Rus-Ukr was at stalemate long before the GOP began holding up aid. The issue is the nature of modern military power (defense dominant) and Russian numerical superiority. GOP opposition affected the war, but the causality isn't obvious.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@Peter2Richards @andrewmichta @stephenwertheim @ElbridgeColby An example: Wolfang Ischinger today wrote of China’s "challenge to American primacy" & called for Europe & the U.S. to push back. He would be a primacist (in 1990s terms & now). To echo Stephen, you seem to support similar policies - or, do you see the substance differently?

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@rongarson1 @polanskydj Well, it is full of retirees....

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@jekavanagh @politico I'm pretty sure they follow the Rodney Dangerfield view of deterrence (watch the whole clip):

Back to School (1986) - Professor Terguson Loses It Scene (5/12) |...

Back to School - Professor Terguson Loses It: During a discussion of the Vietnam War, Professor Terguson (Sam Kinison) yells at a student, inspiring Thornton...

www.youtube.com

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

@bryan_gigantino It's an opening salvo in what I'm sure is going to be a return of the stab in the back myth.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

If you liked Kursk I, you'll love Kursk II: Electric Boogaloo. This will also not help disprove Russian claims (falsely) linking "Ukraine" and "fascism."

Bojan Pancevski

@bopanc

3 months

Ukraine is using German armour in its incursion into Russia, Bild reports. German tanks are back in Kursk

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

29 days

Tonight, it is worth remembering that the vice presidency is not worth a bucket of warm piss.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@PeterHarrisCSU Realism: credibility isn't fungible in this way, and power + interest drive the show Magical Realism: see Senator Graham

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@dandcaldwell @ElbridgeColby It's interesting: the other side in the FP debate takes labels like "primacist" & "neocon" as slurs. Conversely, folks on our end resent being called "isolationist" b/c we dispute isolationism is a thing & want to talk substance. IOW, we're playing policy/they're playing identity

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

4 months

@WillRuger Of course, it could just be correlation...

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

@RobertJRalston Indeed! One wonders, too, why this scholar - who is a full prof at a very good school and former university leader - is unable to engage the debate on the terms presented. It also raises Qs: suppose a student raised views aligned with the GOP. Would they also be castigated?

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 years

NEVER MIND, now that DCA flight is full. Thanks, American. Garbage airline.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

@EmmaMAshford I want "like a pile of bricks" as the endorsement on all of my future books.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

@PeterHarrisCSU In proselytizing, you're saying you'll them what you want, what you want, what you really really want?

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 years

@BeschlossDC nicolae ceausescu

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@MrMaitra Unless we're welcomed as liberators, like in Iraq.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

This tweet is mired in a false optimism. International politics is about choice. Today, US leaders need to choose between doing what might be good for Ukraine vs. what might very plausibly bring the U.S. harm. Wishing the choice wasn't a choice is no way out of the conundrum.

Dan Baer

@danbbaer

2 months

The debate about whether Ukraine should get the green light to use long range missiles or not is mired in a false if/then. It can both be true that there is some escalation risk AND that it is the right thing to do— morally and strategically— to let Ukraine defend itself.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

2/ For an alternative take - and one which holds up - I'd flag my The National Interest piece from Oct 2022 arguing US interests in Ukr are not those Kyiv and are, in fact, very limited:

What Is America's Interest in the Ukraine War?

Amid the continuing war and ongoing calls for the United States to “do more,” the question remains: what, if any, are the United States’ strategic interests in Ukraine—and how might the United States

nationalinterest.org

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@aaronbateman22 Reading quickly, I read the signature as "Mark Hana" and briefly wondered what McKinley's campaign strategist was doing advising on space policy.

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

@WillRuger Totally agree on engaging the argument. I suspect they wouldn't love your CFR membership

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

@jekavanagh Hope springs eternal

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

I really want a remake of Deadwood, but told from Mr. Wu's perspective. @HBO , surely we can make this happen?

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

3 months

@JohnAllenGay @jqasociety Is this the event I'm doing on Friday?

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Joshua Shifrinson

@Le_Shif

2 months

@OnlyInBOS Yeah, & BU's single-minded commitment to its construction was a key reason BU faculty/staff had their effective salaries cut during the height of the pandemic even while they were required to be back in the office/classroom. It may be carbon neutral but it's human impact negative

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