John Allen Gay @JohnAllenGay Twitter profile

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Israel has signaled it will respond to Iran's retaliatory strike. One option they're likely considering: hitting Iran's nuclear program. I coauthored a book in 2013 that studied what a war with Iran would be like, and we dug into this option quite a bit. Here's what to know: 🧵

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

5 months

Mearsheimer called it in 2015: continuing to help the Ukrainians into the West would lead to Ukraine getting “wrecked.” Realists warned where this would go. Realists got it right. The folks who got it wrong now want to pin it on realists. Nope!

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Iran's nuclear program has several core sites that would be essential to the production of a nuclear weapon. This is an old map but has the core sites: Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Esfahan (rendered here as Ispahan) (image by Yagasi, CC-BY-SA 4.)

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

To make a nuclear bomb, you need to take uranium out of the ground, do some chemical processes to make it ready to enrich, enrich it to weapon grade, then turn the weapon grade uranium into a bomb. You also need something to deliver the bomb with.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Esfahan has a uranium conversion facility (UCF) which converts the uranium into uranium hexaflouride, a substance that is much easier to work with for enrichment. This facility is a fairly soft target - it's an industrial plant, you drop a few bombs on it and you're good.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Here are some Iranian centrifuges at an exhibition - I think their basic IR-1 model. They're precision equipment - the uranium hexaflouride gas is moving through them at extremely high speeds that require everything to be manufactured to high tolerances. You also need a lot of

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Natanz and Fordow are enrichment plants. They take the uranium hexaflouride in gaseous form and put it in centrifuges that spin the uranium fast enough to separate the isotopes. Take out the isotope you want, and you're enriching.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Natanz has two main halls for these things. It's a trickier target than Esfahan. They dug big holes in the ground, built the enrichment halls, then buried them underneath. So you need bombs that can break through that. (More on the weapons later).

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

The key weapon would be the GBU-28, Israel's highest-end known "bunker buster" bomb. These are huge: they weigh about 5,000 pounds and are almost twenty feet long. The original set of them were built to take out deeply buried Iraqi bunkers in the Persian Gulf War; a bomb that can

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Israel's air force would be the main actor by far in conducting the attack. You'd have two aircraft as the stars of the show: the F-16I Sufa (left) and the F-15I Ra'am. These are both indigenized derivatives of the American F-16 and F-15E. (Image: Mathknight, CC BY SA 3.0/Y.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Fordow is even harder: they tunneled into a mountain; all you can see on satellite photos is a few entrances. Deep inside the mountain there's a smaller enrichment hall.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Other aircraft would be acting in a supporting role. Two main ones: Israel's Boeing 707-derived tankers (left) and its F-35I fighters. The 707s provide extra fuel to fighter aircraft, enabling them to get further carrying more and, if needed, burn lots of fuel to do things like

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

There are some secondary facilities (a research reactor in Tehran and a power reactor in Bushehr [spelled Bouchehr or something French like that on the map above], mines, etc.) But Natanz/Fordow/Arak/Esfahan is what you want to hit if you want to set Iran's nuclear program back.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Arak is a plutonium reactor. Plutonium is a different pathway to the bomb, one I'm less familiar with, and I've not followed the situation there as closely, so I don't know how high priority a target it would be these days, but it is likely not as difficult to destroy.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

These aircraft are both specialized in long range strike. You can see in both pictures they're carrying a lot of big, fat gray fuel tanks and have conformal fuel tanks fitted to the side of their fuselage.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

The huge size of the bombs limits how many the strikers can carry, especially since they're going to be carrying a lot of extra fuel to go to Iran. By my math the best you could likely do is two on an F-15I and maybe 2, probably 1 on an F-16I. Last I checked, the Israelis had 25

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

There would be a lot of other aircraft operating, too. There'd likely be some number of F-15s and F-16s tasked with protecting the strikers, drones to distract air defenses, monitor targets, and assess bomb damage, and radar aircraft to build a picture of the full airspace and

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

There are many other elements of my book I don't cover here - Iran's options to respond, what happens if America gets involved in a big way (we are much more capable but also are easier for Iran to hit thanks to our overextended presence in places like Iraq and eastern Syria),

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Natanz and Fordow are where the limited number of munitions run into potential trouble. Natanz is big, so to be sure you'd want to have bombs hitting throughout the centrifuge halls, and possibly to drop multiple bombs on each aimpoint to really be safe. Working in your favor,

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

Fordow is small, so you'd only need a couple of bombs to get into the enrichment hall to do the job. But the problem is getting them in there: they have to plow through who knows how much rock and dirt and concrete. I've seen suggestion that precision guidance could enable a

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

War is not an engineering problem and it is not a math problem. It aims, as Clausewitz told us, to make the enemy do your will. Destroying his abilities impacts that in the short run, but he can rebuild. It will be harder for Israel to kill the knowledge that underpins the

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

The real question is what the attack accomplishes even if it successfully destroys all the nuclear sites. (There might be unknown nuclear sites, too, although the many high-profile Israeli thefts, assassinations, and sabotage actions against the Iranian nuclear program suggest

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

As one Israeli analyst pointed out, though, Israeli aircraft don't have a switch in them that means they can only fly to Iran once. The main insurance policy on this risky attack is doing return rounds. Over time this gets harder on one side of the ledger - your aircrews are worn

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

So, you need to drop a lot of bombs and you have a finite number of aircraft that can do that. This is where Iran can make an impact: the margin gets pretty tight if you lose a few aircraft or prevent some munitions from reaching their aimpoints. Given the extreme ranges and

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

The other constraint on an Israeli attack is volume - they don't have many tankers, and I'm not sure other countries would be eager to help refuel. Attacking the nuclear sites would be a major escalation and could prompt Hezbollah and Iran's proxies and friends in Syria and Iraq

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

And Russia and China would have the option of providing new defensive technologies to Iran that could make further attacks harder. Moscow held back for years on providing S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Tehran, and has much more advanced systems it could provide in the future.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

There might be significant disadvantages for the Israelis in future rounds. The Iranians probably wouldn't go around advertising their new nuclear sites (indeed, Natanz and Fordow themselves were originally covert sites), so the Israelis would have to find them.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

8 months

@JewishWonk I was always struck by seeing Hebrew on a gravestone from like the 700s in a museum in Hungary. Centuries before the Hungarians got there, and yet look what happened to Hungary’s Jews in WW2.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

10 months

@matthew_petti The pre-2001 Taliban had a few MiG-21s and Su-22s.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

2 months

Serious factual error in the @nytimes article on possible NATO trainers in Ukraine, saying they would be covered by Article 5. Not true: see the scoping in Article 6!

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

11 months

Jake Sullivan, describing Biden’s views on ATACMS, July 2022: “While a key goal of the United States is to do the needful to support and defend Ukraine, another key goal is to ensure that we do not end up in a circumstance where we are heading down the road towards a third world

Matt Seyler

@MattSeyler

11 months

BREAKING: US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

7 months

We are acting to protect foreign ships full of foreign crews carrying foreign goods between foreign ports. This is Article II?

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

This is extremely grim reading about the military situation in Ukraine.

Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing

According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.

www.politico.eu

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

@joshua_landis I’m skeptical here…how exploitable is the field? We’ve been hearing about Afghanistan’s mineral wealth for years. The regime has an incentive to hype the find.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

8 months

“People were just really happy to be held prisoner by an extremist group” has to be one of the dumbest narratives I’ve ever seen spread on this site.

Lahav Harkov 🎗️

@LahavHarkov

8 months

Israeli Health Ministry Nutrition Department manager Shoshi Goldberg told the Knesset Health Committee that Hamas drugged Israeli hostages so that they would look happy when they were released.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

The use of the national security advisor to deliver a major speech on domestic and international economic policy is itself a message. The securitization of trade and economics is one of the biggest discourse shifts I’ve seen since coming to DC.

Todd N. Tucker

@toddntucker

1 year

What is the Biden administration’s international economic agenda? National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan ( @JakeSullivan46 ) kicks off a @BrookingsInst talk on the New Washington Consensus.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

7 months

@StrategicTrends Who in prime piloting age, flying for the United States military, had the F-5 as their favorite plane? Many better choices in that era.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

3 months

One of the most troubling undercurrents in Catholic circles is a resurgent antisemitism in some conservative and trad circles. This account - which posts a lot of old Chesterton material - is now digging up stuff like this and, in comments, calling it “based.” Shameful.

G. K. Chesterton

@GKCdaily

3 months

It is not that Jews are traitors, but rather that traitors are Jews.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

@sharghzadeh This is related to why so many people love college.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

This is just to say I have downed the objects that were in my airspace and which you were probably using for “research” Forgive me they were unidentified so mysterious and so floaty

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

“The flag of this country is the flag of freedom.” Said by an Iranian after kissing a U.S. flag painted on the ground (painted there by hardliners hoping people would walk on it to disrespect it).

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

7 months

The lack of accountability at the highest levels of our foreign policy apparatus is impressive. Not only is error unpunished, you can’t even punish yourself.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

7 months

"President Joe Biden is not considering firing Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin after he did not tell the White House about his emergency hospitalization...one official noted, the president would not accept a resignation if Austin were to offer one."

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

China’s spy balloon is currently over North Carolina. This is a clear attempt to threaten or steal our nation’s best barbecue.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

If you’re spending $886 billion on defense and still worry that it’s not buying enough naval power, your problem isn’t really that you aren’t spending enough. It’s that you won’t prioritize.

Lindsey Graham warns Kevin McCarthy on debt ceiling deal: 'Biggest winner of Biden defense budget...

Sen. Lindsey Graham cautioned House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that he would not vote in favor of a debt-ceiling deal that slashed the defense budget.

www.foxnews.com

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

Iran rejects Azerbaijani offer of aid to earthquake-hit Khoi amid broader criticism of the government’s response to the disaster.

RadioFarda‌|‌راديو فردا

@RadioFarda_

1 year

خبرگزاری «آپا» جمهوری آذربایجان نیز از قول یک منبع وزارت خارجه این کشور گزارش داد که جمهوری اسلامی اجازه ارسال کمک‌های بشردوستانه به زلزله‌زدگان خوی را نمی‌دهد.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

The further collapse of Iran’s currency is a reminder that our Iran strategy has internal tensions. The sanctions have a logic for nonproliferation but are in the long run destroying the Iranian middle class, which is a natural support base for a better government.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

2 years

If Russia were to use a nuke in Ukraine and we were to reply with conventional strikes, what is our war goal? Does this goal remain fixed if the Russians retaliate, or does the goal expand? How do these goals relate to costs and our interests? Not sure we’ve thought through this

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

One of the great crimes of Communism is that they always want you to read some bone-dry 4,000 page book ghostwritten for the Leader.

Barak Ravid

@BarakRavid

1 year

Netanyahu sending a not very subtle message to Biden by releasing a photo of a meeting with the Chinese ambassador who brought him President Xi's book. "The ambassador said President Xi is looking forward to his meeting with PM Netanyahu later this year", PM office said

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

11 years

If you like your stockpile of low-enriched uranium, you can keep it

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

7 months

The UN Security Council got to vote. Congress didn’t.

Laura Rozen

@lrozen

7 months

Joint statement

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

5 months

Pier madness: why Biden's Gaza artificial port is a bad idea. My comment in the @jqasociety 's weekly roundup of foreign policy jobs, internships, and commentary.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

6 months

Why are we reading about the development of target sets in the press??

Nicole Grajewski

@NicoleGrajewski

6 months

“Among the options on the table for the Pentagon: striking Iranian personnel in Syria or Iraq or Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf”

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

Jessica Mathews, speaking @ @CatoFP about her time at Carnegie in the run up to the Iraq War, recollects another think tank’s warning to a senior VP at her institution: “What is Jessica doing [being critical of the rush to war]? Nobody at Carnegie is going to get an admin job.”

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

2 months

Iran belongs at the heart of a debate happening in American Christian circles right now. Quick 🧵on Catholic integralism, Christian Nationalism, and why modern Iran is a warning for those who seek a religious regime in the United States. My new @FUSIONaier piece goes deeper.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

It is shocking that an allied country just experienced a massive disaster that may have killed tens of thousands and is all over the news and it didn’t get a State of the Union mention.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

6 months

It’s unfortunate to see @austinjdahmer and @ElbridgeColby branded as “isolationists” here - a charge for which the author offers neither evidence nor definition. The term functions, as usual, not to convey meaning but to excommunicate:

America’s Problem Is Policy, Not Power

Risks of a “bank run” on American security guarantees are overblown—if we can get our act together.

www.thebulwark.com

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

Got the phrase “force multiplier” in a fortune cookie.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

The idea that Ukraine should join NATO in the future but not while it is at war is a bit odd. If it is not worth war with Russia now, why will it be worth war with Russia in the future? If it is worth war with Russia in the future, why isn’t it worth war with Russia now?

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

5 months

Biden should make clear, loudly and publicly, that this and anything that results from it would not trigger Article 5.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs 🇵🇱

@PolandMFA

5 months

💬 The presence of #NATO forces in Ukraine is not unthinkable. I appreciate the 🇫🇷 President Emmanuel Macron's initiative, because it is about Putin being afraid, not us being afraid of Putin. | FM @sikorskiradek during a conference on NATO at @PLParliament

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

7 months

To add, these foreign ships fly foreign flags to avoid paying U.S. taxes, and we fight for them anyway. They suckered you, taxpayer.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

24 days

Proud to release the first full text online transcript of John Quincy Adams’ famous “Monsters to Destroy” speech, given this day 203 years ago. The full speech enriches its famous conclusion, and is worth a read as we celebrate our independence.

The John Quincy Adams Society

@jqasociety

24 days

John Quincy Adams gave his most famous speech on July 4, 1821, saying America "goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy." The full speech has long been hard to find online - until today. 🧵

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

3 months

Dude walking around in an IRGC uniform in Vancouver. What do Canada’s security agencies do all day?

Alireza Nader علیرضا نادر

@AlirezaNader

3 months

Vancouver, Canada

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

8 months

I love my work with @jqasociety . We’re building a new generation of leaders guided by realism and restraint, making a clear turn away from the age of endless wars. We’ve helped so many important new voices move up or just get started on the path to influence in DC.

The John Quincy Adams Society

@jqasociety

8 months

Shape the future of U.S. foreign policy this #GivingTuesday .

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

5 months

This is a revolutionary idea in Washington foreign policy circles.

Elbridge Colby

@ElbridgeColby

5 months

At the risk of being corny, I mean this sincerely. Here’s who I regard myself as working for: The American people. You may think I’m being insincere or am wrong. But I guarantee: If you can show me how I’m wrong in terms of what benefits the American people, I’ll change. 1/

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

8 months

We’ve got two reading groups in the works at @jqasociety in the wake of Kissinger’s passing - I’ll be running one on A World Restored, and @patrckfox on @GregGrandin ’s Kissinger’s Shadow. Details TBA.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

9 months

Praying for the staff, guards, and local security personnel protecting our embassies and bases in the greater Middle East tonight.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

@TMTLongShort The recent special episode of @securitydpod !

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

9 months

Worst job in Syria: warehouse guard, al-Bukamal. Best job in Syria: runway repairman, Damascus Airport.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

John Quincy Adams stared at an eclipse and hurt his eyes.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

9 months

Pleased to sign this statement by Catholics against antisemitism coordinated by @philosproject . I’ve been disturbed to see the spread of antisemitism in some online Catholic circles in recent years. This statement is correct in diagnosing that as a “spiritual evil.”

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

“The United States should reconsider its current attitudes toward China’s expansion in the Middle East and take it for what it is: a chance to let China make costly mistakes.” ⁦ ⁦ @GarrettEhinger ⁩ and ⁦ @simeone_miller ⁩ for TNI:

America Benefits from China in the Middle East

The United States should reconsider its current attitudes toward China’s expansion in the Middle East and take it for what it is: a chance to let China make costly mistakes.

nationalinterest.org

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

Textbook reckless driving. The Biden administration, which has long said it does not want a war with Russia over Ukraine, should make clear we won’t put up with this.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

1 year

“A group of Nato countries may be willing to put troops on the ground in Ukraine if member states including the US do not provide tangible security guarantees to Kyiv at … Vilnius, the former Nato secretary general Anders Rasmussen has said”

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

25 days

The difference between political science and history is that political science thinks you just fell out of a coconut tree, while history recognizes that you exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 month

Reminder: the Israeli Air Force hit 3k targets in 24h in a 2021 snap drill preparing for a war with Hezbollah. In other words, a war in the north could get EXTREMELY serious extremely fast.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 month

How many days has it been since the previous incremental increase in U.S. commitments and risk acceptance in Ukraine?

Natasha Bertrand

@NatashaBertrand

1 month

News: The Biden administration is moving toward lifting a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine to help the country’s military maintain and repair US-provided weapons systems, per 4 US officials. w/ @OrenCNN

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

3 months

Protesting against or calling to ban a musical performer on the basis of their nationality is illiberal - it fails to distinguish between state and society. That was true when applied to Russians and Belarussians and is true when applied to Israelis.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

2 years

Why are we still in Eastern Syria?

Rockets hit US base in eastern Syria, no casualties reported

BEIRUT (AP) — Two rockets struck a base housing American troops in eastern Syria on Wednesday without causing any human or material losses, the U.S. military said.

apnews.com

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

11 months

This assumes a nefarious Russo-Hungarian plot is behind the intellectual changes at Heritage, when the far simpler explanation is that they got a new president who believed different things at a time when much of the movement’s base and donor class was rethinking things, too.

Randy Mott

@randymot4

11 months

RUSSIAN INFILTRATION OF U.S. CONSERVATIVES Part 2 This part of the series discusses the transformatino of the @Heritage Foundation from a Reaganesque organization to a Kremlin apologist organization. The relationship between Heritage and Hungary started with a meeting of

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

20 days

Protip for NATO officials: you don’t get to decide this - the Senate does.

Robbie Gramer

@RobbieGramer

20 days

"Irreversible" is the key word at the NATO summit this week Multiple NATO officials tell me there's heated behind-scenes debates over whether to phrase Ukraine's NATO membership aspirations as "irreversible" or not in the final summit document

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

4 months

This undercuts the rationale for making our troops build the perilous pier in Gaza, even as the WCK strike was a reminder of the dangers. Golden opportunity for Biden to cancel the plan.

NBC News

@NBCNews

4 months

NEW: Israel has committed to opening the Ashdod port for deliveries into Gaza and the Erez crossing for aid into north Gaza, U.S. NSC spokesperson says.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

“U.S. government officials are quick to point the finger when Iran conducts drone strikes and rocket attacks in Iraq and Syria, and yet when Turkey exhibits the same behaviors, Turkey is never named…” - former U.S. spox for the D-ISIS mission

CENTCOM says US troops weren’t injured during drone attack in Iraq, reversing earlier statement

The U.S. military said that the attack on the convoy, which included the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, led to no casualties.

www.stripes.com

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

25 days

I signed this letter. I agree with every word. Honored to have my name alongside an impressive list of signers - a list of notable intellectual diversity.

William Ruger 🇺🇸

@WillRuger

25 days

Politico reports on a letter signed by over 60 foreign policy experts. It argues that "At NATO's summit, the alliance should not move Ukraine toward membership." I am proud to be among this august group of signers.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

9 months

Similar demands for a strategy for our Ukraine assistance don’t seem to get this much traction, despite Ukraine aid being many times larger, Ukraine being a far less visceral issue in U.S. politics, and the horrors that began that war being much further in the past.

Elizabeth Hagedorn

@ElizHagedorn

9 months

NEW: Letter to Biden by a majority of Senate Democrats seeks more information on Israel's strategy in Gaza. "It is in America’s interest to ensure that any military plans to fight Hamas do not produce the same strategic mistakes as many U.S. military operations..."

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

5 months

This is an interesting conversation between two thoughtful people:

Bishop Robert Barron

@BishopBarron

5 months

Friends, I recently had the pleasure of sitting down with Congressman @RoKhanna for an episode of Bishop Barron Presents. Congressman Khanna represents California’s 17th Congressional District, best known as the home of Silicon Valley. Over the course of our conversation, we

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

There’s a TON of waste and excess in the defense budget but I don’t think the first $400k we should sweat is a missile fired in a direct defense of U.S. sovereignty.

Lucas Tomlinson

@LucasFoxNews

1 year

Scoop: U.S. Air Force F-16 that shot down an unknown object over Lake Huron yesterday missed on its first attempt, U.S. officials say. It’s not clear where the first missile landed. A second Sidewinder air-to-air missile was needed. Each Sidewinder AIM-9X costs over $400,000.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

Our invasion of Iraq removed a check on Iran, expanding its influence and drawing America into a set of containment missions that will never end. My latest in @TheNatlInterest :

The Iraq War’s Worst Legacy: Endless Confrontation With Iran

Invading Iraq brought many evils, but our long confrontation with Iran is one of the most enduring.

nationalinterest.org

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

7 months

For those who think that the War Powers Act means Congress delegated its war power to the President for anything less than sixty days, do you think Congress can delegate its other powers to the President? Can he, say, make new taxes on his own authority or appropriate money?

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

2 months

Some incredible speakers and panels at the @amconmag / @QuincyInst conference on the Hill today, including @JDVance1 , @WarrenDavidson / @herandrews / @BMarchetich , @RandPaul , and @VivekGRamaswamy .

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

Russia is weakened and isolated. They’re not in a position to mount an offensive against any #NATO country, and many think they won’t be for years. If this isn’t an opportunity to shift European defense burdens onto Europeans, what would be?

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

Now adorning my desk at the @jqasociety : JQA.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

11 days

Eugene Gholz and Brendan Green debate how high the stakes are for America in Taiwan at the ⁦ @jqasociety ⁩’s joint summer program with the Notre Dame International Security Center. Joe Parent moderates.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

1 year

Russia’s choice to invade Ukraine is a great illustration of Bismarck’s old line that preventive war is like committing suicide for fear of death. Moscow has turned many of the things it worried might someday happen into things that actually did happen.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

2 months

There have been a number of pro-Ukrainian propaganda efforts so obviously self-defeating that you have to wonder what they’d do differently if they were secretly controlled by Russians trying to discredit Ukraine’s cause.

Justin Logan

@JustinTLogan

2 months

New enemies list just dropped.

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

8 months

Calvin Coolidge shoutout from DeSantis. Night made. Stayed away from dumb wars. Restated the Monroe Doctrine in its original, pre-Roosevelt form. #GOPDebate #AmericanResolve

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John Allen Gay

@JohnAllenGay

6 months

@Aviation_Intel It highlights the absurdity of Biden’s strategy (if it even merits that name): invested enough to run permanent, fairly serious risk, but not enough to change the operating environment. If risk turns into consequences he’ll be standing there with his pants around his ankles.

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