Interesting to see the way narrative moves in sync with price
$SDI.L case study:
(I hope nobody is offended by me using their public Tweets. I have very few followers, just a couple of people will see this Thread🧵)
Understanding the Risk Factors of Investing in Alarum Technologies $ALAR
Thread is primarily for myself, I like Alarum's narrative a lot and want to work against my own confirmation bias.
But I want to spread awareness of risk factors to other investors too.
$ALAR
Old interview with Shahar Daniel from May 31, 2023,
they are discussing Q1 23 results
+ some notes
In the weeks following this interview Shahar et al. decided to scale down Cyberkick.
@Investmentideen
$BBW.SI Azeus Systems
Maybe you will need to be quick on this one, it's a bit of a coiled spring, at the end of May the FY2024 results will be released and on a company with FY23 revenues of 34.5 mill$ the large contract they got from the HK-government will start showing effect.
I can't help people who haven't done research on the sector themselves gain conviction on $ALAR.
Ask yourselves, is sitting on the only publicly traded data-scraper company good real estate in the year 2024?
Have people realised that Friday was the last day of cap gains tax related selling? $DRX.TO
(The settling date counts as the transaction date, that means, if you'd sell today as a Canadian, you'd have to pay the higher rate which will come into effect tomorrow.)
$CPH.TO $CPH $CPHRF
Very unprofessional behaviour by Cipher's management team and potentially violating securities laws (I am no expert, I don't know).
They really should know better ...
$INT.ST
April 20th, 2024
about Q1/24 "Approximately 70% of the group revenue in Q1 came from reoccurring customers which is good indication that the groups different products are sold and used by end users on a regular basis."
@LukeWolgram
I sincerely recommend you get off Twitter for 10 days, give the account to somebody you trust and let them change the password for those days, I think this would improve your mental health & outlook on life.
@Jaro_rogue
@KyleAdamsStocks
It's an oligopoly, the 3 biggest players are dominating it, Oxylabs and Bright data have more human resources than Alarum.
Over the long term, I believe that all 3 companies will do well.
In my view, when one envisions the role data is going to play in
Understanding the Risk Factors of Investing in Alarum Technologies $ALAR
Thread is primarily for myself, I like Alarum's narrative a lot and want to work against my own confirmation bias.
But I want to spread awareness of risk factors to other investors too.
While $SOWG is often compared to $CELH, I believe it's more akin to $LULU.
$LULU Lululemon's founder Chip Wilson played a crucial role in designing and popularising modern yoga pants, which led to the creation of the athleisure category.
@amendandpretend
He was also long in 2000, he knows what he is doing. He also said he doesn't even know if NVIDIA stock will fall in case of a recession because of the AI-story.
$ALAR Q1/24
Customer count doubled (YoY)
+ NRR further increased 1.66
=> magic 🦄🏰🌈
credit to
@spaceX_cowboy
for catching the customer count doubling
Further insights:
@atmosinvest
@Tintincapital
I recognized that I definitely like growing businesses, it's hard to find cheap + high (organic) growth + high quality/ moat.
There is always hair on them, gotta embrace the hair!
@rubicon59
Ssssh, don't tell them about the annualized p/e of 15 for a business growing triple digit y/y 🤭🤭
But for real, people shouldn't invest in ALAR if they can't stomach the risks, it's an oligopoly, Alar isn't the number 1 but 3 at the end of the day data is a commodity.
With $SOWG there are some governance issues.
If somebody finds an error in my analysis please correct me, I will be grateful!
1) I don't like the retroactive enlargement of the 2020 stock incentive plan by 2.1 Mill shares.
@sharpeshark
You forgot the third fungus! 😳
DongKoo Bio & Pharma Co., Ltd. (006620.KQ)
Market cap 147 Mill USD
P/e 17
Small dividend + small buybacks in the past
@LukeWolgram
You don't have to make your money back with the security with which you lost it.
XPEL is selling a luxury product to a saturated market, Tesla is shifting to cheaper models whose customers can't afford it.
Competition is picking up. "software" =/= moat
p/e yet still high for that
@TidefallCapital
@searching4value
@BATplc
I have seen this sentiment.
I have no clue how professional investors don't see how buybacks are obviously superior capital allocation to dividends especially when the stock is as cheap as BTI is right now!
"Stock didn't go up, cash for buyback was wasted"??!?!? facepalm
@OyvindSynnes
@asm_1987_
@SurrealInvestor
@Robel2405
It's probably time for a short-squeeze.
Alarum $ALAR is trading at ~13 price/FCF for FY2024, it's probably too cheap for the only publicly traded scraper company on any stock exchange
@nicholasp66
Thank you for sharing your investment and decision making process, that's invaluable and nobody does that!
I am grateful for all I could learn from you in the short time since I am aware of your posts, it has greatly influenced my investment style.
Does $ALAR have a moat?
Setting up the IP proxy network is not easy in my humble opinion. I don't think it's easy to get those bandwith-sharing contracts with ISPs, they need to trust you and you need the traffic or a ton of cash to make it work. But nobody will give you (1/2)
@KarstResearch
Compliance is one of the biggest issues affecting all medications, MOB-015 needing less weeks of application might be why insurance companies initially reacted positively to Moberg (compared to alternatives like Jublia).
@dirtcheapstocks
Keeping up with and reading all his past posts in the last few months has been one of the greatest learning experiences of my lifetime. Nick is a great role model, a humble man, rooted in his community, trying to give back wether it's here or as a coach at home.
@puppyeh1
I don't know if I can take him seriously as an investor if he picks an arbitrary point in time to which he points to as "ownership" of the land and then dismisses every other logical argument.
Its really bad thinking.
as an investment with a time horizon of ~12 months.
Questions of execution in production and brand-building, governance, further professionalisation, appropriate valuation and potential further dilution on the other hand are very much relevant, in my opinion.
@atelicinvest
Just do 40% index and then 5-7 high conviction bets with the rest of the funds, if you are any good the 40% of the index will become a smaller % over time
@evfcfaddict
I think, I found another one with a very similar setup (but am still researching it):
- strong organic growth (35-40% yoy)
- high quality mgmt.
+ a large contract not being appreciated by the market as of yet
Spent the past few days unfollowing people who tweet about politics/ macro/ trading constantly, then muted a lot of Tickers about companies I passed up on and which are only distracting me right now.
Twitter/X feels kinda empty now.
Don’t know how I feel about this yet.
@2021_stonks
@rubicon59
If we annualise the 4.7% q/q growth we have a 20% growth rate for a 16p/e. NetNut recently cut prices a bit (they were a bit pricey) to spur the growth, so it should pick up.
The slowdown in growth rate is probably caused by the competitors price cuts at the beginning of the year
@TrentBlair19
This is actually really interesting to me, because you are a lot more diversified than myself and I imagine others, would you mind adding what your top 5 performers were in that time span and how much they added to the increase?
@W98AB
My degree is ~85% female, I have observed that women tell other women their problems just to get emotional support to regulate their neuroticism, that's what is weird for them & men when the men start coming up with solutions and it's not what the women want to hear at all 😅😅
New 10% tariffs + Canadian counter-tariffs could negatively impact ADF Group $DRX.TO, I think this is the reason for the most recent sell-off.
Good, that there are already active mediation efforts under way right now:
/ Canadian officials and business have been talking to members of Trump’s circle, including none other than his former trade czar Robert Lighthizer. Hoping for an exemption from his planned global tariff.
The word so far: no exemption. The Canadians are worried about being
@Jaro_rogue
@KyleAdamsStocks
There has been too much talk about facts confirming the investment thesis recently and I have seen uninformed tweets about Alarum, people claiming that it has a deep moat.
This is mainly an a "rising tide lifts all boats" investment thesis.
$HSY "Freeze-dried Strawberries Chocolate & white Chocolate" selling in Japan
This might become a problem for $SOWG eventually.
Not too far off Hershey taking the leap into freeze-dried candy, Mars has better brands for freeze-drying though.
@SebKrog
@TrentBlair19
@nicholasp66
There have been recent examples of brands which were selling really well due to free online advertising but then fell off later:
- Prime (Logan Paul)
- Feastables (Mr. Beast)
So it's okay to have been prudent about $SOWG
but they miss the decade of pain which forged these people.
Same as with $BBW.SI you have a tried and tested management leading a very nimble and quite embryonic company.
Actions like divesting the main part of their cybersecurity business shows me that they are up for the task
@2021_stonks
@rubicon59
This is actually wrong, I compared the wrong revenues, the QoQ growth rate for netnut was 6.2%, which annualizes to 26% YoY, which is in line with what the proxy market is supposed to grow
@MnkeDaniel
His family office has a good track record in venture capital investing, the decisions are probably made by him, so he by the looks of it is indeed an investor
@TheSmallPond_
That's my main worry as well.
Also price action is very much driven by sentiment atm.
I am also a bit worried seeing people put 50% of their portfolios into the company, I get why they are doing it and some people are encouraging it, but it can drive fear when volatility happens
@LukeWolgram
Then talk to someone you know who cares about you about recent events and about your life to better process the emotions. You are coping with humour and by talking about it online, which is good but this can't replace talking to a friend.
@HiddeMulder2
This is the one, it's the Henkel contract.
Intellego's market cap is 67 Mill USD, that contract alone is 50 Mill revenue of which likely a huge percentage is recurring and if they are a supplier of Henkel, they'll stay in that role.
Look at Nick's tweet:
@CuriosityInves
"The global collaboration we have with a multinational partner in the curing market continues to develop well, where Intellego has now been invited to start the onboarding process to become a registered global supplier. This is a very important step towards a long-term global
@MadisonLackey44
@SJOldValueGuy
I have a similar view to
@MadisonLackey44
For me a catalyst is the upcoming presidential election, getting Trump in would be really good for BTI, because if menthol cigarettes get banned, that‘s a ~25% loss of FCF, that‘s why BTI is so cheap. (Also Velo PMTA.)
I think market is
@mvwmllc
The newer versions of Velo are better than Zyn, they have market dominance (>85% market share) in Sweden. They are just not yet allowed in the US.
@maxeo5596280
Check out his work, he is great
Particularly $CRON might interest you, it’s an Altria subsidiary which Altria uses to expand in the cannabis sector ✌️
No investment advice though 😆
$CRON "an industry where so much capital has been incinerated...that the capacity for investors to rationally assess risk/reward has been fundamentally compromised."
Latest piece on Cronos Group now up at link in bio.
Skittles/ M&Ms/ Twizzlers/ Hershey's are powerful brands. I don't think Sow Good can win if Mars, Hershey or Ferrero choose to fight.
SOWG might also supply them, don't think this is a winner-take-all situation.
@GPTBioVersion
@spaceX_cowboy
They've always been for real.
I have to say though, that when I look at their past growth, it was lumpy and it was mostly around Q3->Q4 or Q4->Q1, market participants shouldn't expect the last QoQ growth to hold up, I don't want exuberant expectations in another of my holdings.
@KyleAdamsStocks
@Mike10947310
Probably better not to focus on the daily gyrations of the stock price too much, feels good when it goes up but when it goes down like last week and then people come out of the woodwork and start worrying about the price competition and other real uncertainties
@SebKrog
Trying to bottom-tick a potential turnaround like $LEAT is not intelligent investing. As Peter Lynch said, it is worth to wait until there are positive results.
@HariSeldomRight
I just read up on ISKs more closely and holy shit, you being able to withdraw and add money without costs is insane, this is even better than the Swiss model.
I want to emphasise the "holy shit" again 👀
Key Takeaways:
(+) NetNut kept improving in performance
(+) NetNut in
#3
(-) Nimbleway emerged as a new Israeli enterprise level competitor able to service AI-customers
(-) Bright Data & Nimbleway are seemingly better at landing leading AI company-customers
(?) Price cut effects?
@lebron_ex
British American Tobacco $BTI and Evolution AB $EVO are in my opinion the only straight-forward undervalued large cap compounders.
($BTI depends a bit on who gets elected president, due to the menthol ban the Democrats might put in place in a year if Biden gets reelected)
@Floebertus
@searching4value
They have great margins because of
- capital light business model SaaS-subscriptions
- arbitrage between Polish software engineers and customers from UK & US -> this is a strategic competitive advantage, but a very weak one.
I don't think it's high quality either or I don't know