This is the story of the most profitable private equity buyout of all time and it’s French 🇫🇷
Company : Polyplus-Transfection
Sector : Healthcare 💊
Sponsor : Archimed
Here is a thread on how Archimed achieved a 300x MOIC on its initial investment 🧵👇
Current private equity environment.
The ratio of distributions to capital calls stands at the lowest level ever. Bain estimates it at 0.7x, but
some investors are well below that; our portfolio was closer to 0.5x in 2023.
This pushes both LPs and GPs to turn to the secondary
I am an LP in a PE and a Private Credit fund from 2 distinct GPs.
The Private debt fund granted a unitranche to one of the PE portco
PE fund super excited to announce a dividend recap at 6x net leverage…
PC fund super excited to announce a new deal at 5.2x net leverage 🙄
Q1 2024 Private Market Performance
Listed GPs (notably Blackstone, KKR, Carlyle & Apollo) have published Q1 funds gross performance. We will get more precise data from providers such as Preqin or Burgiss in the coming weeks.
Average gross perf / (range)
Private Equity: +2.5% (0
Spoke with a guy at Goldman this morning regarding a large secondary deal highlighted in the press.
« We gave up after the first round, deal priced 10 points higher than our initial bid at hardly no discount to NAV. There is a complete irrationality in pricing here. » Large
Blackstone Strategic Partners' historical track record.
Blackstone SP is one of the most significant PE secondary players and plans to raise the largest secondary fund ever in the coming quarters
Interesting slides from PIMCO on multiple arbitrage opportunities in European Data Centers. Development spread and cap rates vs other real estate classes
KKR—For those interested in the gross-to-net spread, here are the net performances (as of Q3 2023) for some of the funds.
KKR NA XI : 2.2X / 19.8%
KKR NA XII : 1.82x / 18.9%
KKR Europe I : 2.1X / 19.73%
KKR Europe II : 1.3x / 4.81%
KKR Europe III : 1.6x / 11.01%
KKKR EUrope V :
KKR delivering 26% gross IRR over 48 years is impressive, no matter how you cut it
Even more impressive is that none of their funds (out of 25) have lost money
22 out of 25, or 88%, have outperformed the benchmark
💊🇫🇷Sanofi has sold its consumer health division to Clayton Dubilier & Rice (CD&R) for €15.5 billion, marking the largest LBO in France's history.
Sanofi will sell a 50% stake in Opella, its over-the-counter (OTC) health business, valued at €15.5 billion (about 12x EBITDA)
The Milken Institute recently held a private credit panel with speakers from some of the top firms in the world, including SVP, PGIM, Oaktree, Goldman and Monroe
Here are some of my key takeaways
> The asset class of private credit has grown at a ~20% CAGR since the GFC
>
Some of you have asked more specific questions about power demand from data centers.
I am sharing in the comment section the link to a recent Goldman Sachs study: AI, data centers, and the coming US power demand surge
Very few firms have a true competitive advantage and barriers to entry in the secondary market. These guys have found their niche and are good at it. They probably have one of the best value proposals in secondaries. Congrats to them for their first and only close at $765M.
Following the CVC IPO, we compare carried interest attributable to employees vs shareholders for different European Private Equity listed management companies
Private Equity Market Update
Exit activity has shrunk in Q1 2024 to a 3-year low. No wonder why secondary volumes are increasing both LPs & GPs turn to the secondary market for liquidity reasons.
In private equity secondary deals, effective discounts at closing often differ from the agreed discount with the seller.
Learn how to bridge the gap between agreed and effective discount in the 6th article of secondary series :
Partners Group’s CEO about secondaries: « pricing for high quality inflection assets has tightened from around 90% last year to 95%+ of NAV »
« You have quite a few players on the secondary market today, it’s a competitive market… »
@BoringBiz_
Take a look at their natural ressources funds perf, in their annual report. They clearly have lost money they just don’t show it in these slides!
SMALL SIZE, BIG GAINS
#1
💪
Highlighting private equity deals on tiny titans.
Company: Proxiserve 🇫🇷
Sponsor: Latour Capital 🇫🇷
Initial equity check: €9M
Final MOIC : 11,2x / IRR : 88%
Latour Capital unleashing the Power of Transformation: The Proxiserve Journey 👇
In
Starting 2024 with a new series of threads
HEAVY ASSETS, HEAVY RETURNS
#1
Infrastructure & industrial chronicles 🚉
Company: NGD
Sector: Data Centers
Sponsor: Infravia Capital Partners
MOIC: 4.6X - IRR: 46%
Infravia was early in what has now become a core infrastructure
$ORGN potential multi-bagger.
My father works in the bottling industry at Danone. He always says that this type of materials is the future for bottlers, there is a great push for carbon negative and 100% recyclable materials
Today we announced a breakthrough in recycling. Origin created sustainable PET bottle caps, enabling “all-PET” bottle and cap solutions using recycled PET or bio-PET. With “mono-material” products, no need for recyclers to separate caps from bottles. $ORGN
Real Estate 🇫🇷 - this morning I attended the board of a RE fund in which my company is invested. I can tell you that there is liquidity crisis in French RE that is brewing and that will have massive consequences in 2024.
Explanations 👇
Private Equity - new study from EY/France Invest released last week breaks down value creation in small and mid market deals exited in France recently.
67% of value creation come from EBITDA growth (of which 54% is organic, 32% build-ups, 14% margin expansion)
🚨Private Equity - European Mid-Market update Q3 2023.
Data from the latest Argos Index (
@ArgosWityu
)
1. Transactions multiples are down 8% on the quarter to 9.1 x EV/EBITDA
Top 10 - Secondary Firms
I have also established a more extensive mapping covering managers that have raised 100M$+ in secondaries. Comment "Listing" if you want to receive it.
We have agreed to sell an infra fund to a US-based investment firm. We are in the middle of the legal phase, and I am starting to regret it.
The amount of unnecessary legal complexities in the US is mind-boggling.
What should be a relatively straightforward transfer of limited
Private Debt Secondaries - is an increasing market with $6bn volume in 2023 and $7bn+ expected this year.
Here are 10 secondary funds currently in fundraising that are 100% dedicated to Private Debt
Dorchester has a clear edge, a differentiated strategy, and an extensive track
SMALL SIZE, BIG GAINS
#2
Highlighting private equity deals on tiny titans.
Company: Alliance Etiquettes 🍾
Sponsor: Activa Capital
MOIC 3,9X - IRR 35%
A Toast to Prosperity: Activa Capital's Sparkling Investment in Alliance Étiquettes 👇
With the festive season approaching,
Embarrassing true story.
I became friends with the founder of a high-performing small-cap PE Firm.
He wants to raise his next vintage in 2025 and asked if I could refer to names of relevant Placement Agents I like. This fund is an easy raise; many sales would love to sell it.
I
Project Hillary update - Got a very good news this morning, one of the underlying portcos is being exited a 5x MOIC. With our secondary discount, we will make 2,5x on it without bearing any risk. We will receive the distribution just after our secondary closing. It will
Private Equity Secondaries - I have secured exclusivity to purchase a portfolio of good small French Buyout Funds from a regional bank. Very limited competition —> very good price. Took over 2 months to DD.
More info as we close, this one will be called project Hillary
Private Equity - I met with an impressive GP I didn’t know, 1st decile 20 year long track record, good sourcing and value creation strategy.
Problem: the founding partner is really an unbearable human being, complacent attitude, a total jerk. The head of IR (she) is the same.
🔴⚫️ AC Milan x FC Internazionale Milano 🔵⚫
2016 🔵 Chinese electronics giant Suning acquires ~70% of FC Internazionale Milano from Massimo Moratti and Erick Thohir for €270 million.
2017 🔴 Silvio Berlusconi sells AC Milan to Chinese businessman Li Yonghong for €740
Nowadays, it’s market practice for private equity funds to charge a 20% carried interest. But do you know the origin of this mechanism?! Your ancestors might have been merchants or worse pirates!
Explanation 👇
@WallStCynic
Clearly not the same risk, the best direct lenders out there focus on LMM or MM and have had loss rates close to 0% for nearly 2 decades. Even, the best performing PE firms often get zeroed on deals.
2024 Secondary Market Comment -
Lately pricing on the secondary market is increasing relatively fast.
Here is a comment which I find pretty relevant from an intermediary:
Risk appetite has returned, with buyers showing increased optimism about medium-term prospects. Over the
I forgot to tell you about this private credit fund that lent money to an eSport team and took their League Of Legends seat in a closed competition as collateral… 🤨
🚨Private Equity - European Mid-Market update Q1 2024.
1. Transaction multiples slightly declined to 8.9x EV/EBITDA, down from 9.0x
2. Decrease in multiples mainly driven by multiples paid by funds. Strategics remain stable.
3. Record proportion of deals made below 7x EV/EBITDA
Private Markets - How does catch-up affect your gross-to-net performance as a LP?
For the same gross performance, different catch-up terms may result in different net performance for LPs. 🧵👇
H1 2024 Secondary Market Review: Record-Breaking Semester
Record Volume: The market achieved $72 billion in H1 2024, a 73% increase vs H1 2023. LP-led transactions accounted for 57% of total volume, and GP-led transactions for 43%.
LP-Led transaction pricing improved by an
2024 Exit data
+33%, the average uplift from prior NAV seen by a Top 10 secondary firm on 2024 YTD on all exits across its portfolio. This is significantly up from 2023, which stood at +19% and above the long-term average of +27%.
I just spoke with a partner at a direct lending LMM fund I like.
“We haven't started our next vintage fundraising, and we already secured a €500M commitment from a CFO (collateralized fund obligations). The full structure senior, mezz, and equity was raised and oversubscribed
Just spoke with a PE placement agent I know well working on his own. He raised €800M alone in 2 yrs.
This is €15M in revenues with practically no expenses. « I have nothing to do anymore, money prints itself »
@BigJohn043
Or a so-called « PF adjusted EBITDA » for the credit fund, which makes the facial leverage more acceptable for their LPs.
Seeing both sides of the equation is funny; you can see how GPs will present you with a reality that better fits their narrative
Private Equity Secondaries - I have secured exclusivity to purchase a portfolio of good small French Buyout Funds from a regional bank. Very limited competition —> very good price. Took over 2 months to DD.
More info as we close, this one will be called project Hillary
Real Estate - Two weeks ago, I received a deal opportunity from a GP to acquire 4 Casino supermarkets in France.
You have to know that this company Casino is under restructuring and change of ownership.
The strategy was to buy the assets as Casino is in distress and resell it a
We are approaching closing. Meanwhile there was a massive intermediary distribution in one underlying fund. This one in particular will be handed out to us at a negative price. Unbelievable.
Project Hillary update - Got a very good news this morning, one of the underlying portcos is being exited a 5x MOIC. With our secondary discount, we will make 2,5x on it without bearing any risk. We will receive the distribution just after our secondary closing. It will
Secondary deals have shorter durations, but this is not always true for secondary funds. Sometimes, the cash flow profile for a secondary fund might be worse than that of a good buyout fund. And I am not even talking about the tail-end distributions, which can be so long.
One of the things driving the growth in the secondary market generally is retail. Secondaries have shorter duration making them much more appropriate for the typical retail investor. I think this will continue to grow….
🚨H1 2024 Private Market Update
Our portfolio, roughly 90 funds, had a ratio of distributions to capital calls of 55% during H1 2024. It is very similar to what we achieved in 2023.
The portfolio is still growing in terms of the relative size of the balance sheet. So, you can
Q1 2024 - Secondary Market Update
~20% growth in deal volume vs Q1 2023. Volume is estimated between $27-32 billion, according to PJT Park Hill. FY2024E projected at $135Bn.
LP-led deals account for 65%, GP-led deals for 30%, and Structured solutions for 5% of the market
@marketplunger1
A very successful European Infra fund (Infravia Capital Partners) is launching a €2Bn fund to invest in metal & minings related assets. The fund is backed by French gov for €500M
Real Estate - Debt rather than equity is where you want to be in CRE right now. Attractive relative value profile at the moment. Higher spread, lowest LTC/LTV in the last 20 years, high base rates. Chart below is for the French CRE market
🚨 Private Equity - European Middle Market update Q2 2024
1. The Argos Index stabilized at 8.9x EBITDA, slightly above its 20-year average. Funds' multiples rose to 9.3x EBITDA, and strategic buyers' multiples were stable at 8.7x EBITDA.
2. The slow recovery in mid-market M&A
Private Equity secondary true story : 2 weeks ago a placement agent asked me if I could bid on a LP-interest in an Ardian Fund. Started working on it and inquired for the exact past flows (drawdowns and distributions) of the current investor. Days later the broker tells me : «
Real estate - Remember this 👇Got a call today from a SCPI sales asking if I would be interested in buying back some institutional on the secondary market because they can’t match the redemption themselves and insurers need liquidity. The liquidity crisis in French Real Estate is
Real Estate 🇫🇷 - this morning I attended the board of a RE fund in which my company is invested. I can tell you that there is liquidity crisis in French RE that is brewing and that will have massive consequences in 2024.
Explanations 👇
Following
@carrynointerest
thread. Some of you ask for more specific content about private equity secondaries.
I am starting a series of articles covering everything you need to know about it. Tell me if you prefer this format or if I should go back to traditional threads
Real Estate 🇪🇺🇺🇸- yesterday I warned of a brewing liquidity crisis in French RE. Here are some more global data underpinning this point :
1. Net redemptions in open ended funds stand at their highest level since the GFC. Fund managers will need to sell assets to meet redemptions
@createthisbiz
There are still GPs/Teams that can deliver operational performance and organic growth out there. One need to find specialists in their field and not just subscribe to Blackstone/KKR of this world for convenience. Take a GP like Archimed, with a team full of Doctors, pharmacists,
This is the story of the most profitable private equity buyout of all time and it’s French 🇫🇷
Company : Polyplus-Transfection
Sector : Healthcare 💊
Sponsor : Archimed
Here is a thread on how Archimed achieved a 300x MOIC on its initial investment 🧵👇
Median DPI by Strategy. You'll be stunned that median secondary funds take nearly as long as buyout funds to reach 1.0x DPI. I like it to be faster. Focusing on specialists and niche/smaller funds is undoubtedly a way to improve this metric. Doing direct deals is also a way.
I got kicked out of a secondary process on a relatively old European direct lending fund.
11 Bids, ranging from 40% to 95% of Q4 2023 NAV 🤔
Extreme spread; I don’t understand both bounds
@HarryStebbings
IPO volumes tend to be cyclical peaking every 6/7 years. IPO window for VCs will probably need some time.
In the meantime VC secondary specialists have a nice opportunity set