Amend and Pretend @amendandpretend Twitter profile

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Amend and Pretend

7 months

GenerativeAI is going to a giant rug pull for tech in 2024. The ROI is not as high, use cases are not as straightforward, and customers are not paying up for gimmicky features in enterprise SaaS. Yes - there is value but the run-up in mag7 due to GenAI is overdone.

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

Sounds like $AMZN relied on API (a person in India) technology. 🤔

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Apollo Global management walking the halls of a nursing home

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

@buccocapital Imagine working 80+ hours at a top tier law firm for the same money. Bubble in tech will eventually burst.

Stamford Sam

@Stamford_Sam

4 months

> 32 y/o > Minimum 8y out of law school based on age > TC $550K on the Cravath scale Your guy either works for Wachtell, is lying, or you’re just making shit up. I’ll take the latter.

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

Greatest business model ever created

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Stanford $35b endowment investment allocation

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

Slides from Thoma Bravo’s annual meeting

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Columbia has a long-standing reputation of allowing students to be radicalized with bad ideas

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

9 months

Dad what was it like in the ZIRP era when FAANG would pop 7% after every ER

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

20 days

@benhylak Listening to her complain about her job

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

CIM vs diligence findings

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Fintwit after a new Mauboussin paper drops

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

8 months

Dirty little secret in tech: Management teams only know how to add headcount. Ask execs to scale with existing HC and they have no clue how to be more efficient. Huge talent gap! Zero creativity, unwillingness to take risk, & victim attitude. Many people will get replaced in ‘24

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Inspired by @BG2Pod podcast episode

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

“Why are they confessing? They aren't confessing, they're bragging.” $KKR

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

10 months

@AdamNeumannsCoS managers / senior managers in consulting firms

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

Software Fintwit this week

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

5 months

An experienced practitioner staring at a spreadsheet for 15 minutes can come up with better insights than a team of phd data scientists + $300k data lake.

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Same pattern will play out for VC/PE

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

6 months

@eastdakota @Austen Cloudflare Comms Department: Let stay off social media until come up with a thoughtful reply to the video. We need to do damage control to maintain our @repvue score and repair our reputation with sales candidates. Matthew Prince:

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

@WillManidis SoftBank Vision Fund I & II portfolio return assumptions .xlsx

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

7 months

PE exists to show software companies the art of the possible. If a scaled software company can’t hit 40% EBIT margins with minimal dilution, it ain’t worth owning and management needs to be replaced with real operators

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

A decade of ZIRP and an explosion in the number of software companies was a recipe for disaster. Too many companies + not enough good executives to run them. Software cos are full of slick talking professional managers that have no idea what it takes to grow a small tech company.

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

@HighyieldHarry Learning about dental roll-ups to Metro Boomin was hard af

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

Vertical SaaS compared to Rest of SaaS 🙌

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

1 month

1. 1200 unicorns 2. VC and growth PE funds that need to show DPI asap 3. Low-growth PE buyouts with high debt servicing costs 4. No IPOs in the last 2.5 years 5. High multiple Covid software deals with no path forward The next 2.5 years in software investing:

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

9 months

@mattjay Update your LinkedIn profile and CV.

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

12 days

Great work by @JaredSleeper and his team. Another explanation is structural: 1. SaaS budgets are tapped out & need to get profitable 2. IT budgets grow in line with GDP ~2-3% & pandemic pulled forward demand 3. Software is ~20% of any IT budget & sw grew faster than other costs

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

1 month

The new hyper-growth for software is 20%. Markets will punish software until they hit Rule of 40+. 20% NTM growth + 20% FCF margin with minimal SBC. Sw companies need to change their cost structure to attract a new set of LT investors. Transform or get picked off by PE in 2025!

FJB Capital 🚁

@capital_fjb

1 month

Really nice visualization of the current state of Software from the Jefferies TMT desk tonight: "The definition of what “high growth” is continues to be redefined across Software. As can be seen in the chart below across the 105 Software companies we track, we’re now at the

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

1 month

@JoeKinseyexp I thought it was a chick

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

7 months

@EBITDAddyLBO Just the woman. It’s cleaner

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

15 days

Value investors don't make money in technology ✌️

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

@SoullessAnalyst My weekend was good. Quiet but good., thanks for asking

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

9 months

Ballmer’s capital allocation track record

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Software management teams watching their debt flip from ARR to Cash EBITDA multiple

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

5 months

@big_business_ That’s crazy. At the end of the day it’s whatever

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

20 days

Terrible GTM ideas that only worked in a ZIRP environment: 1. CROs with marketing reporting into them 2. Large CS HC & hoping CS will close expansion deals 3. BDRs in SMB & Mid-market 4. Large digital advertising spend 5. Spammy Marketo campaigns 6. 27 yr old enterprise sellers

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

After 3-4 years into hold periods, software PE firms are realizing the chronic GTM execution issues are actually product management issues. No easy fix out there!

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

6 months

Can the market fill 3000 chief of staff roles?

Bloomberg Markets

@markets

6 months

McKinsey warns about 3,000 consultants that their performance is unsatisfactory and will need to improve

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

6 months

@dabit3 @soychotic Got me reading the subtitles like

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

@NotTuxedoSam Redis product marketing in desperate need of a case study

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Software PE marketing is wild y’all

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

8 months

Oil refinery Lego set #OOTT

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

Software sales compensation is skyrocketing and sales productivity is still poor. I don’t know how investors can expect high FCF margins when 80% of software company’s cost structure is personnel & people costs are up 30-40% since 2020. Run it for cash & growth rate gets slammed

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

1 month

@KILLTOPARTY Every other guy:

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

30 days

Software investors: When this ridiculous AI /semi bubble bursts, it will likely hit the beaten-down software sector as well

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

7 months

@scubaryan_ @phodroa

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

**banker shows you a random company and you decide to lean in** IC memo: “We have been tracking this company’s progress for the past five years as part of our market work…”

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

10 months

@shobasketball @Matt_Barnes22 @DaTrillStak5 Jada is more dangerous than Suge knight

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

It is only a matter of time before CFOs start to question the benefits of public cloud. CEO have long touted the cloud for the cachet of being considered digital-forward. When a company’s capex is now 100% opex, CFOs will need sharpen their pencils in a downturn and push back.

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

CAC payback continues to march higher. Cutting costs ≠ more efficient

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

Tech sales quota attainment is at ~35% compared to historical industry average 65-70%. One observation is there is too much sales capacity. While true, the root cause is most tech sellers don’t want to work that hard anymore. Too many sellers want to “take orders” & make $250k+

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

19 days

How it started: How it’s going:

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

@Glenjr1988 When KAT rolled up

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

@devahaz Sacks: are you in Moscow?

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

7 months

Very difficult for software companies to improve sales efficiency if every medicore sales rep needs to be paid $250k-$300k. Sales compensation ballooned in a race to build GTM while productivity went down. Only 40% of reps hitting quota tells you there is too much capacity!

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

9 months

@alpharivelino

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

We really like the assets and playing for the long term 🥴 $BX

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

5 months

@buccocapital Directors with less than six direct reports

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

6 months

@uncledoomer

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Software companies don’t die from competition. It usually self inflected. Some of more popular missteps 1. Rolling out new, complicated pricing 2. Botching an on-prem to SaaS transition 3. Failed product “rewrite” 4. Underinvest in good UX 5. Costly + long implementation times

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

1 month

@SoullessAnalyst Hired

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

@j_fishback “We made a lot of money together”

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

Asking the CRO if March will make up for the bookings miss in January and February

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

1 month

@HaterReport_

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Q2 software bookings are very weak across the board. What is everyone seeing out there?

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

Investors realizing software is a cyclical industry

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

9 months

@nikitabier

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

@profplum99 @Noahpinion Very thin skinned. Loves taking a victory lap publicly but cannot handle any criticism.

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Every software PE investor is scrambling to fix leadership issues in product mgmt, product marketing, and demand generation. All functions ignored during the ZIRP era when demand was strong

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

8 months

Dua Lipa asks Tim Cook hard hitting question in this podcast. Topic includes deceleration of iPhone in china, competition from Huawei Mate 60, and moving supply chains to India, and Taiwan risks from china $AAPL

‎Dua Lipa: At Your Service: Tim Cook: What it takes to run Apple, the world’s largest company on...

‎Show Dua Lipa: At Your Service, Ep Tim Cook: What it takes to run Apple, the world’s largest company - Nov 16, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Seeing a lot of software companies with “delayed renewals”. Retention game is getting harder every quarter. Assuming auto-renew without any reselling is a ZIRP phenomenon. Watch renewal rates in 2H2024 👀

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

30 days

@hobbleabbas @WillManidis Who you marry is most important.

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

7 months

@patrick_oshag 1980: Here is 8% of the company 💰 2023: 3rd rate SaaS founder offering 4th employee hire 0.1% equity for pre-revenue, pre-PMF company 🤷‍♂️

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

@AcaciaCap LPs:

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Howard Schultz about to pull an Iger? $SBUX

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

9 months

Legacy on-premises software license gross margin was 95%

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

6 months

@ChrisJBakke Are you drunk, bro?

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

SMB is still buying software. Average sales cycles are decreasing. No formalized budget process approvals or sophisticated procurement department to block ~$25k purchases. $HUBS is not out-executing $CRM rather fewer blockers + lower risk of no decision on deals. Enterprise is 💀

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

Making the math work for a software take-private Paying ~8.5m NTM Rev and selling for ~35x NTM uFCF upon exit Taking revenue growth from ~35% to ~15% Increasing FCF margin from ~1% to 25%

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

@NeelyTamminga Hopefully the market can absorb 5,000 chief of Staff roles

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

NRR is a ZIRP-era metric that can be easily gamed.

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

5 months

@DeepDishEnjoyer 175k TC and hot = wife material

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Delivering superior returns leveraging our differentiated approach to picking category winners

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

1 month

Latest Clouded Judgement 6.21.24 - What it Takes to Be Valued at >10x Rev

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

9 months

@HarryStebbings @paulg

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

@CuiBonoCapital @marketplunger1 Link to the video

Robert Wallace - CEO Stanford Management Company | Investment...

As CEO of Stanford Management Company, Robert F. Wallace oversees the university's USD35 billion global, multi-asset class investment portfolio. Wallace join...

www.youtube.com

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

@Rory_Johnston Summary of the OPEC press release

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

4 months

@sindap @FTJFranklin @IvanLevingston Sounds like great teamwork at Evercore

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

3 months

Big tech names issuing dividends and doing buybacks

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

2 months

$AMZN AWS culture is causing its decline. 125k employees told to act like CEOs/owners. Leaders have their own agenda and want to do things their way. It makes it impossible to run and scale the business with a coherent strategy. Wait for the HBR case study!

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Amend and Pretend

@amendandpretend

6 months

Growth software may appear to be rebounding but looking under the surface tells a different story. Market demand from new customers is very weak. Companies are growing by harvesting existing customers base. After 2+ yrs of heavy upsell/expansion, this well will eventually run dry

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