Karst @KarstResearch Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Karst

@KarstResearch

673

Followers

79

Following

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Media

799

Statuses

Partial to healthcare and insurance. Serial acquirers and asset heavy companies occasionally. Trying to keep it simple, I think.

https://t.co/gT4Q4IxDZg

Joined March 2024

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

Pinned Tweet

@KarstResearch

Karst

1 month

New piece up on the blog focuses specifically on insurance wholesaling. Specifically breaking down wholesaling to the classic wholesaler component and then also touching on some of the MGA/MGU business that exists. DMs open as always. Mentioned: $BWIN $TFC $RYAN Enjoy!

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@owl_poster They're literally just hippies that studied geology, found out they loved money and could look at rocks and draw maps. They got hired back in the 70s/80s and are gods. But they're just really talented petroleum geo's

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@KarstResearch

Karst

9 days

There is a secret war occurring. The most important battle of our time and the belligerents are: $LMND Bulls vs People That Know How To Read Insurance 10K’s Godspeed

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

@BoringBiz_ A1…?

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

@sweatystartup When you're 60 and look back on your life do you think you'll regret tweeting like this all the time?

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

@dtmorgan18 Hero

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

New piece is out on CHAPTERS Group AG - $CHG.DE. This piece is a primer on the company, a serial acquirer for small and mid-sized enterprises located in Europe. Next up will be a financials dive and setting the stage for an update in October following their interim report. I

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

This is… a positive development for the US market for $MOB.ST Their competitors do not have this type arrangement. This is different (and better) than pre-authorization. In this situation they’ll just shorten the prescription supply and cover each Rx so long as the patient

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

@Divergent7651 Do it - best thing I ever did. You can always make more money, you can’t roll back time.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

Forgive me, but I'm actually really shocked by the willingness of some people on here to just blanketly accuse someone of running a pump and dump without having done the work on the name. I don't want to harp on the fungus as I have other names I focus on, but I don't understand

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

@blondesnmoney Fidelity is an extremely good broker. I love them

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

@HF_Trader Every time I have ever stayed at an Airbnb I had wished I stayed in a hotel

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@KarstResearch

Karst

18 days

Looking for a super quick 10x anyone got some leads? Ty

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

Some of the people critiquing MOB-015 potential for coverage in the USA: It’s not like Jublia doesn’t make money in the US even despite its coverage challenges. If MOB-015 has the same coverage issues as Jublia, it means the current value of the co is still attractive. Jublia

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@KarstResearch

Karst

1 month

My brother in Christ

@thexcapitalist

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

@thexcapitalist

1 month

If I was creating a hedge fund today, these are the only four stocks I would buy: - $SOFI - $HIMS - $AMZN - $GOOG Rest of my time would be spent by writing cool memos to clients.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

@WTIBull You guys do all this work to get fucked by OPEC?

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

My piece on pharmacy pricing, drug tier classification, how (health) insurers view risk, and how insurers might treat a new drug will be coming out this weekend. I have other pieces planned that all relate to this, but I would love to hear requests for something specific as well

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

$336m SEK, 98% subscription. We're back? Brother it was never over. $MOB.ST

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

@stephenolmon This is the polar opposite of a red flag.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

@ThomasBraziel What is up with this woe is me bullshit? You reap what you sow.

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FTX-Claims Broker Thomas Braziel Stole $1.9 Million From a Receivership for Personal Gain, Court...

The Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware said Braziel used money recovered while acting as the receiver for Fund.com.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@SoullessAnalyst I literally have absolutely no idea, if you find out let me know.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

1 month

@marketplunger1 We should get rates to 6% and leave it there for 4 years

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

Yesterday I had a moment of pure clarity. I have a family that loves me, a life worth living, friends that support me, and a career that I enjoy. There’s really nothing else that actually matters than the relationships we hold close. I’m a lucky man and I hope you all are too.

@compound248

Compound248 💰

6 months

“Go find your Charlie. And do it now.” That was the gist of Warren’s answer to Andrew’s question, “if you had one more day with Charlie, what would you do with him?“ After a long, beautiful answer, Buffett brought it home with this banger.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

New post is up with no paywall. Discusses the role of wholesalers in the drug supply chain as well as the pricing dynamics between manufacturers, wholesalers, and pharmacies. Also provided insight into how that pricing dynamic impacts the end consumer and the insurer/PBM. Hope

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@KarstResearch

Karst

22 days

Think I'll start writing a bit more on the medical stop-loss industry and how these stop-loss insurers work within the healthcare landscape. Something not discussed as frequently, but a major portion of the US healthcare finance landscape.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

New piece coming on Saturday. Will be how the PBMs view formulary placement, prior authorization, tier designations, and continuing further detail on the first piece. Sorry for the hiatus, back to regularly scheduled programming. I think you’ll enjoy the next one.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

13 days

This makes sense, for example: how many people selected at random have heard of $CPRT $LIN $PLD All three are SP500 components. Companies are known within their industry broadly speaking, but everyone in insurance or knows Marsh. It doesn’t mean they’re *better* however.

@cantshutupsam

Sam Louwrens

14 days

I literally didn’t know what Marsh was until 2 years ago and I haven’t met anyone outside of insurance that does either

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@KarstResearch

Karst

24 days

Trying hard not to spam insurance takes

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

@ccmembersonly Seller are the most delusional people in the market right now. Just saw a home in a dogwater part of the northeast for >800k with a $16k tax bill. It is approximately 2 hours from just about anything and hasn't been renovated since at least the 80s.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

22 days

The really upsetting part about this storm is that even though the "worst case scenario" is likely avoided, wherever this hits will be devastated. Hoping everyone on the West Coast stays safe.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

Health Insurers & Pharmacy Benefits: A Primer More to come: deep dive into the cost structures and tier placement on formularies.

Health Insurers & Pharmacy Benefits

A Primer.

karstresearch.substack.com

@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

My piece on pharmacy pricing, drug tier classification, how (health) insurers view risk, and how insurers might treat a new drug will be coming out this weekend. I have other pieces planned that all relate to this, but I would love to hear requests for something specific as well

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

@MarkGutman9 It's fitting that Blue Metric has two dentists as sponsors on their website. Dentist/MD money is so funny

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

Zoomer intern just shared shirtless photo holding champagne on "get to know you" presentation. Not really sure what to say.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@sharpeshark @gran1te_mtn So many married couples just resent the hell out of each other, really sad.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

9 days

@NickalobeUltra My belief is it is a donut eventually barring some pretty incredible feats

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@MetacriticCap @Benioff I don’t think Benioff even knows how CRM makes money

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

Anyone investing in insurance businesses: Schiff's Insurance Observer just made free the entire archive - . It's a treasure trove of great information.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

@ChanisLament Most people just have no clue what they’re talking about when it comes to us health insurance. They can barely understand their own deductible and coinsurance let alone the inner workings of drug placement on a formulary.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

@ChrisOlin @PedroLamento @Divergent7651 I believe it will be far harder than she may expect, but in general she’s not commenting on the USA much until P3 given my own conversations with her, so I won’t pass judgement on this until we see further commentary on the overall strategy of the USA.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

New post on the blog, very brief. Free for everyone. Breakdown of the platform companies that currently exist and then some redundant information from the previous post on the new platforms. Interim report in October!

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

@TheStalwart @tracyalloway @fundstrat Tom Lee has never met a price target that was *too* high

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

I should note, there’s other possible explanations for per completed treatment cycle, but this phrase is not indicative of coverage issues like pre-auth.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

@DakotasTwits How you size a position is more important than actually finding the opportunity - lot of people do a lot of work for little reward.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

$CHG.DE September 5th, 2024 CHAPTERS Group officially owns 100% of their VMS-software platform Ookam Software GmbH. Previously, CHAPTERS owned 80% of Ookam. Ookam operates 23 companies out of Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, and Slovakia.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

Piece on this coming soon.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

Swing hard, ignore what most say as they haven’t done the work, you can always make more money, stay the course

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@TreyHenninger @nobenchmark @Rowan_M_Wood You very clearly do not have a better understanding than most given your public commentary in this post.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

7 months

Every investment I have made where the business looked poor, but bankruptcy was impossible turned out to be a massive winner.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@ChanisLament Who would have thought a novel treatment better than current options wasn’t just a play on the current customer base, but on new customers that had been waiting for a better treatment option.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

1 month

Does anyone have thoughts on $MRX or $ABXX? MRX growth seems fairly compelling. Lot of interest income so far. Who would be the best person to speak with on here about either?

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

@ChanisLament People don’t realize for companies (in general) you can’t just look at a multiple and go “hur dur” this is cheap. Companies aren’t just shares trading on an exchange. They are businesses, with counterparties. One needs to understand those counterparties.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

New post is up about a company that has performed well for me YTD, The Baldwin Group $BWIN. A sector that I know well and a business compounding revenues double digits year over year. None of this is investment advice. Please feel free to DM.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

@AlvinZh2003 Don’t you think if it was a said pump and dump they would be exceedingly promotional of a stock into a warrant event that hits cash onto the balance sheet depending on the VWAP going into June? You have no idea what you’re saying.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

Since this post I have doubled my position size and the stock is +25% (approximately). I will have a brief note on the 'stack before the August 6th earnings with some updates I think are positive. I know it's tired phrase, but I really don't care where the stock trades in the

@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

New post is up about a company that has performed well for me YTD, The Baldwin Group $BWIN. A sector that I know well and a business compounding revenues double digits year over year. None of this is investment advice. Please feel free to DM.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

It is becoming really difficult to not try and take advantage of the USDJPY exchange rate and buy a little cottage or something by the ocean. I like Japan and the surfing is great too.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

Putting out a piece in the coming weeks about a name I've been long for a bit now. Great sector, acquirer, and management. A growth name in a wonderful business that I think is poised to continue compounding. Will be the first post that mentions a single stock name and I hope

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

@jasonjosephlee We are reaching levels of Real Estate Twitter not even Nick Huber could bring us to. The IRR for KC is higher.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@Citrini7 Don’t give an inch they’re desperate, they’re all so desperate

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

Did any of you even BOTHER to consult the chart? Textbook double top. I was perfectly hedged for this.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

@goldoilstonks @TheSmallPond_ This is an absolutely ridiculous accusation to make about someone and you should feel gross.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

@EquityBrian $bwin Highly acquisitive, earn outs from previous m&a spree rolling off, delevering even with earn out obligations, solid operator and incredible MGA/MGU biz Short term- Once the brunt of these earn outs are complete the fcf profile of the biz materially improved as these earn

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

Family situation has arisen unfortunately - not the best start to Memorial Day weekend. The piece will be out this coming week - there will be no paywall due to the delay.

@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

New piece coming on Saturday. Will be how the PBMs view formulary placement, prior authorization, tier designations, and continuing further detail on the first piece. Sorry for the hiatus, back to regularly scheduled programming. I think you’ll enjoy the next one.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

Off calendar year fiscal years should be illegal

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@KarstResearch

Karst

22 days

Probably some of the fastest moving clouds I’ve ever seen in my life. Can’t imagine what it’s like on the West Coast right now. Something to behold.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

@Ksidiii @StripHouse Keens

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

@mhp_guy "But that $2,000 line item effectively carries a potential "cost of risk" to the insurer of $60." I need you to never speak about insurance ever again if you are going to say stuff like this. This is not how that works at all.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

19 days

I am trying to be charitable so I will just say that: if your concept to fix home insurance uses Obamacare/ACA as the foundation then you are too policy/academically focused and probably don’t understand how these systems work in a *real* capacity This is an awful idea

@Dschwarcz

Daniel Schwarcz

21 days

🚨New Paper🚨 Happy to share Obamacare For Homeowners Insurance: Fixing America's Broken Insurance Markets In A Time Of Climate Change, f'coming in @HarvardELR , it argues the ACA offers a template for fixing insurance markets roiled by climate change. 1/12

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@KarstResearch

Karst

24 days

I'm short some insurance

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

@TechEmails Really cool to see this

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

@DakotasTwits There was a great tweet about some European guy asking “with those sharp edges how did it pass pedestrian safety testing!?” And he soon learned that we do not have such a thing.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

@ccmembersonly @BFriendjamin This is astounding.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

@Divergent7651 @invertedfragil1 @PedroLamento Money makes people weird, always.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

I've mentioned this before, while the capital raises definitely give people cause for pause, they are not being punished by the market currently and are attracting phenomenal people as investors. It's a unique position to be able to raise nearly 1/5 of the MC and then provide

@ArenaManCapital

ARENA MAN CAPITAL

@ArenaManCapital

3 months

$CHG.de raise of 85M eur, presumably some of which goes to Jan/Jens formerly of TSS/$TOI.V/$CSU.to to allocate.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

2 months

$ROOT -36% Man that was quick

@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

Seen a bit of $ROOT posting so thought I'd maybe give my thoughts. It's very possible that it's a compelling long from here, but the beauty of $ROOT was the re-rate and the amount of work to get long this name has grown materially. Buying a short tail insurer with a single line

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@KarstResearch

Karst

12 days

What is even going on

@PhilMickelson

Phil Mickelson

14 days

@CorneliaLake SOC has done everything right and followed the difficult CA process to a T. The consent decree has been agreed to by all relevant Parties (especially federal agencies)and takes precedent over any random state commission. The CCC and SLC know this and are just being true to

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

@orrdavid It just became a place for allocators to park large sums of money in one go basically and then trade amongst each other.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

Seen a bit of $ROOT posting so thought I'd maybe give my thoughts. It's very possible that it's a compelling long from here, but the beauty of $ROOT was the re-rate and the amount of work to get long this name has grown materially. Buying a short tail insurer with a single line

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@gruust The current market cap is worth less than the EU business + Bayer milestones.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@PythiaR I’ll add - Jublia at $100m and it’s not exactly fully covered by insurance easily. So the bear thesis that MOB-015 in the USA won’t be meaningful due to potential step therapy or bad formulary placement is dead on arrival. Plus it’s a better product.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

Going to be writing up another insurance long on the 'stack in the coming weeks. It's a really interesting one with some a really unique component to it's ability to drive RoE. Good underwriters and sub <$10b MC. A bit different than $BWIN. Soon!

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

@BrownMarubozu I feel this constantly, but all my outperformance has historically been just remaining overweight stuff I’m already long Annoying!

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

Does anyone have a securities lawyer they can recommend? Ideally one that has been on the defense. It seems I have found myself in quite the pickle. ty

@nikitabier

Nikita Bier

4 months

Some guy bought Rivian calls this morning that expire on Friday for 12 cents each—and they're now worth $5.30. He made $2 million in 5 hours.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

@Longterms1 You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. This is extremely common. The pharmaceutical distribution system is built on discounts between parties and then discounts at the end consumer. Happy to DM with you but if you don’t realize how common discounts are in pharmacy

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

@Neil_X10 @InformedByIan Just because it uses technology, doesn't mean it's an tech company. They are an insurance company. Full stop.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

Easiest way to solve the housing crisis is basically just withhold federal funds for state/local govs that have prohibitive zoning regs

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

@kneelingbus Surreal

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@KarstResearch

Karst

13 days

I enjoy this topic honestly, mainly because two things can be true: 1. Working at a mega corp doesn’t make you better 2. Working at a mega corp *can* absolutely “pays you in brand name (brand within industry) Both are true!

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@Jaro_rogue What you’re describing is called step therapy and it is too soon to be making declarative statements as to whether insurance co’s will require step therapy. It’s entirely possible, but the existence of a Jublia generic isn’t a guarantee they’ll require step therapy. It’ll

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@KarstResearch

Karst

12 days

Tiny rant: In Germany/Belgium (and I am assuming other EU countries) a single transaction triggers VAT registration on Stripe. Stripe makes it pretty easy, but I can completely see why people would geofence their services to not deal with this. I love Europe, but for example,

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

@shakoistsLog I need to find the papers, but there’s great papers written about the type of mercury that are in fish not being as bio reactive as the mercury you typically think of when you think of mercury poisoning. I’ll try and find it and post it.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

@ValueHunter7 No you're right

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@KarstResearch

Karst

17 days

You can be as fast as you want, many instant quote solutions out there, but speed, while nice, isn’t the key issue if the rest of the market takes two weeks. Especially when you want to see the market for your risk. That insurer is just saying the price first. Your buying

@jawwwn_

Jawwwn

22 days

$PLTR CTO @ssankar 🔮🤯 “One of our customers, a very large US insurance company… we’ve automated all of insurance underwriting. A process that used to take 2 weeks, can now be done in 3 hours”‼️ “If all of your competitors take 2 weeks to price risk, and you take 3 hours,

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@KarstResearch

Karst

5 months

Nice to have this overhang behind us.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

@JourneyToIthaka It’s literally just pre Reg FD

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@KarstResearch

Karst

4 months

@marc_slans Real estate, tbh

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@KarstResearch

Karst

16 days

If Fidelity matched IBKR’s margin rates it would be hard to justify using IBKR except for really off the beaten path foreign equities

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

$RYAN earnings Total rev +18.8% YoY to $695.4 million Org rev +14.2% YoY Net Income $118. million Acquiring US Assure Great Q imo, great company.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

1 month

“SMB Data Center” *screams inside*

@thomasince

Thomas Ince

1 month

Data Center sectors, along with market leaders. Are there any good SMB Data Center thesis ideas for Searchers, entrepreneurs, or independent sponsors here? Any thoughts?

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@KarstResearch

Karst

3 months

What is your: Best equity play currently? (L/S) Best equity play in the past? (L/S) What is a theme you think plays out in the coming years? Want to hear from you all.

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@KarstResearch

Karst

6 months

Everyone give this a listen and @LeftField_FHRS a follow. A phenomenal analyst.

@LeftField_FHRS

Left

@LeftField_FHRS

6 months

Interview with @smallcapdisc is now available for free on YouTube. I made a few mistakes in this video, but I wasn't exactly reading off a script. Thanks for the opportunity @PaulAndreola & @veritasvatillum

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