How can retail traders make money?
Last fiscal year, ~45% of retail traders trading on
@AlgoTest_in
made money, as compared to the SEBI statistic of 9% of all retail traders!
@Seajays_
and I are trying something new this year - we're going to be openly trading a mix of
#freaktrade
#37100PE
a story in charts. y-axis represents the ltp, x-axis the time. These are all the trades in that one second. Someone shouted "FIRE" in a crowded theater with a narrow exit. Instead of an orderly evacuation, we had a stampede.
Here's some data on yesterday's
#freaktrade
#nifty
#14500CE
x-axis is time, y-axis is price. The x-axis spans 14:34:08 to 14:38:47.
Almost 5 mins of mayhem where price discovery was broken and the price bounced between Rs. 0.15 to approx Rs. 2100 a bunch of times.
1/
While this is a great feature, something to keep in mind is the inherent (in)stability of your correlation estimate. As you add strategies to a portfolio, based on backtest returns, gives you a historical correlation matrix.
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weekend surprise! We now have a Portfolio page! Now you can add multiple strategies, test their combined results and their historical correlations. This is in beta phase, so do share your feedback 🙂
#NiftyBank
#AlgoTest
#stockmarkets
#trading
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This has been our internal dashboard for a while. Now opening this up for the public. Mention your broker in the comments if you want them listed.
This is a realtime dashboard which will be updated every 15mins during market hours.
Can also be used to perform periodic health
Broker API Speed debate put to rest. Permanently.
At AlgoTest, we created the Broker Speedtest to clear up misconceptions about broker API speeds.
Discover the truth behind broker speeds and why the fastest isn’t always the best.
Head to to see the
Or I can help...
To represent your BN delta in terms of FN deltas,
Delta_BN_measured_in_FN_term = beta * ((price of BN)/(price of FN))*delta_BN
beta you can calculate by regressing (linear) BN on FN
RT if there's interest here, and i'll do a YT live with calculation in excel
Spaces with
@VohiCapital
got the brain juices flowing, had to dust off the cobwebs from my old
@SinclairEuan
vol trading book!
When options are fairly priced, your theta pnl should exactly offset your gamma PnL (in theory).
#Theta
is not
#edge
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This morning
@upstox
API blew up - more than half requests timed out
We sampled traceback of some requests and it looked like something went wrong on their load balancer at ~920am.
Issue persisted for ~20-25mins
Check out for
#BrokerDownTimeReport
Re-igniting this question from last year: What drives your PnL when trading options?
Is it theta? Delta? Gamma? Vega? Or something else?
Spoiler alert - your long term profitability is not driven by theta decay
Using
@AlgoTest_in
monte carlo engine to show this with data
Quant trading firms aren't the only ones offering 1cr+ packages!
City of New York is looking for Director of Rodent Mitigation (Chief Rat Killer). Job description mentions wholesale slaughter and requires the candidate to be bloodthirsty.
Salary range Rs. 1cr - 1.37cr.
Quant trading firms hiring in India along with their salaries(per year) for freshers(from top tier colgs)
1. Graviton Research Capital LLP (90L - 1.2CR)
2. Tower Research Capital (80L to 1CR)
3. AlphaGrep Securities (80L)
4. N K Securities (82L - 1.1CR)
+
Bad day at the office for
#zerodha
#zerodhadown
News next year - Zerodha FY24 revenue jumps 50% to Rs. 10,000cr, profit after tax jumps to Rs. 5000cr.
Yes, we are all masochists 🙃🙃
Zerodha, pls continue taking my money 😉
NSE is bringing back 'Do Not Exercise' (DNE), a feature that all other options exchanges offer. This is excellent news for retail. Why though?
Also, when the exchange got rid of DNE, it caused a slight mispricing in stock options.
A THREAD
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Short video trading MIDCAP this week
@AlgoTest_in
My plan was simple:
1. Trade less: No hedging or adjustments during the week
2. Cap max loss: long wings which cap max loss to an acceptable number
3. Acceptance: At some point I will realize max loss
It seems that this tweet caused a bit of a stir last weekend.
Some interpretations were off base, so here’s a clarification:
Sample size problem
The sample size was way too small to draw any meaningful conclusions:
1. Only one day’s data - The timing and relative positioning
🚀Part 1🚀
90% of orders placed on 16th April 2024(Banknifty & Finnifty weekly expiry) took less than 'n' milliseconds to get an acknowledgement.
Only APIs through which more than 1000 orders were placed are taken in consideration.
But placing an order is not the only thing
My grandparents only invested in FDs, schemes like indira vikas patra, etc. and we did ok.
Ofcourse they never knew they were committing a financial crime by buying their banker a BMW 😀
Often times the answer to most questions regarding asset allocation is: it depends.
It
Haven't tweeted in a while but thought this would be an appropriate way to re-enter the twittersphere
According to this study, more than half of finfluencers have negative skill, i.e. you'll beat the market taking the opposite trade as them 🥲
Simple VRP trade running for almost 40 days. My model said I should not have it running for expiry week. But I'm greedy.
Double the profit or break-even after costs?
Hero ya zero?
Rolling the dice over the 3-day weekend, lets go!
We all know it's not very easy for retail traders to consistently make money in the markets.
We at
@AlgoTest_in
are working day and night to make sure you're part of the 10% that remains profitable.
COME AND CHAT WITH US!
Beautiful - there seems to be a demand for a secondary market for
#VerifiedBySensibull
.
Completely unrelated (😉):
1. New secondary marketplace product coming soon on
@AlgoTest_in
2. if anyone has a minimum daily MTM of 1cr that can be verified on sensibull, pls DM. Asking
Exactly! The original tweet reduced the ultimate risk premium product to a zero sum game between you and the bank!
If you win you get BMW, otherwise your banker gets BMW 😀
I think I'm a criminal here, as majority of my money is in FD. Plus I trade expiries, so that probably takes me into the terrorist category.
As for BMW, it's an entirely different matter. Using a car as an example helps to entice people into ventures where they lack expertise.
This is so true man. I remember every single strategy I operationalized that made money over a non-trivial period.
The ideas that never materialized into succesful strategies got compressed into learnings and intuition, but every detail of observing the effect and finally
@rogue_hft
@zerodhaonline
I wasn't expecting such a generic and misleading remark, especially from you. The KITE API is not just one endpoint, such as `place_order`, specifically and explicitly. Would you bother to check other endpoints like `/user/profile`, `/user/margins/{segment}`, `/margins/orders`,
Just tried my hand at live streaming.
Currently at 100% win-rate on my ENTIRE HISTORY of VRP trades put on in the last fiscal year (4 trades put in the last week 😉)
Market has been very kind
Join me for a twitter space and YT live on Monday morning!
Since the last
#freaktrade
, we've been working on a free backtesting tool for retail traders. Here is the beta version
In the future, we'll be releasing other such products, and we'll try our best to keep them free!
Pls share your feedback :)
Last night we saw
@patcummins30
play a test match and
@Gmaxi_32
play T20 in the same match, at the same time!
Only in 50 overs-cricket!
As a 90s kid who grew up on 50-overs, I really hope this format sticks around!
#GlenMaxwell
cc:
@RamneetSaini1
We're observing this phenomenon now with "no theta decay" on many days where theta decay has historically been prevalent. The ukraine crisis has potentially "broken correlation". So tread carefully! And remember that correlations are not static. They can change just like prices
TLDR - MIDCAP is dangerous.
SL's will not help you in fast markets, esp when liquidity is an issue. In terms of liquidity, NIFTY > BANKNIFTY > FINNIFTY > MIDCAP
Today is an example when trading intra-day straddles with SLs would've underperformed positional trades with wings
Who's the fastest broker amongst them all?!
We wanted to identify which broker's API is most responsive in sharp market movement conditions.
We will share more tomorrow...but who do you think is the fastest?
RIP Weekly
#VRP
positional trade in
#FINNIFTY
on
@AlgoTest_in
😢
Trading isn't easy. You can lose money even if your prediction is correct.
When I put this position on, I bet on volatility. My prediction might be correct, but I will lose money due to path dependency.
😢😢😢
This isn't the 1st time
@zerodhaonline
has made changes to their infra without informing the rest of us.
An older thread from back in the day -
Thankfully today
@rajatjaiswal_me
@AlgoTest_in
team were able to test and deploy a quick workaround intraday
@mnopro
@SarangSood
If you have a volatility estimate over the life of the option trade you've taken, the monte carlo engine will just show you the distribution of your pnl across different potential price paths. The platform doesn't ask you how you got your vol estimate. If you're correct about
@Pugalenthi341
@VinayakParasar
@AlgoTest_in
@SHUBHAMMOONAT
@BandiShreyas
No, a successfully placed Stop Loss Limit order sits at the exchange, not with your broker. Once it is triggered, it is then revealed to the rest of the market participants in the order book as a limit order. The triggering mechanism is completely handled by the exchange.
Hi
@zerodhaonline
, a bunch of traders using your API to trade received errors late yesterday and today with ref to rate limiting in API calls.
Here are some of their tweets:
1/n
Sorry I missed this - totally underutilising my twitter blue subscription.
Anyway, nothing out of the ordinary for
@zerodhaonline
when it came to placing, modifying and cancelling orders. I think the issue was confined to their price feed, unless others saw differently...
@AshishGupta325
Half notional ka NIFTYBEES lelo ser options mein adjust karte rehna padhega to keep your delta at 0.5. Uper se gamma theta ki aur headache hoyegi
Closed the
#Midcap
#VRP
positional trade at a 4k profit today morning. I'm bleeding heavy on
#Nifty
,
#banknifty
and
#finnifty
though, so expect some positional pain tomorrow!
@Seajays_
can provide more colour on 6k intra-day profit today
During periods of volatility, even negatively correlated assets can become perfectly correlated. In our case, the 9:20 and 10:20 straddle are both short vega. Under market duress, IVs go up up up. The vega PnL may begin driving your overall PnL during these times.
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Market Holidays calendar for the next year is now out
6 out of the 14 market holidays fall on long weekends!
Fast market for flights and hotels so make your bookings now 😆
@guppygambler
@AlgoTest_in
Ser this is not by design, just an artefact of where most of our customers are present who need support or updates in a realtime manner. We direct everyone to telegram precisely for this reason, so that its easier to communicate with them in a focused manner. We have more reach
Lets create 9:20, 9:30 and 10:20 short straddle strategies and add them to a portfolio (SL=30% legwise, square off = partial). Here is the associated correlation matrix based on last year's backtests. You can see that the correlation bw 9:20 and 10:20 is 0.11
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Awesome thread!
If you're building a hardware product and can't replicate the hardware malfunction, try sticking the product in the fridge.
Hats off to the person who came up with this brilliant suggestion
As winter approaches, here's a story about why hardware is hard. ❄️🥶
About a year ago, we started getting reports from the field about undesirable behavior when our robots were turned on. They would behave unpredictably.
Aajao guys - i'm reading and discussing the RA regulations in realtime today. We can have a QnA/open discussion as well.
I'm no lawyer or expert, but we should get into the habit of rolling up our sleeves and doing *some* research on our own.
Pls come ok thanks bye.
🚨 Twitter Space 🚨
We're often told, "Do your own research!" by traders giving tips and calls 🤔
Nowadays, a lot of Finfluencers are registering as Research Analysts (RAs)
SEBI laid out the Research Analysts (RA) regulations in a 24-page document back in 2014 🗣️
Join us live
I'm working on a YT video titled, "How to preserve your sanity and get your wife/gf to exclusively shop online"
Sorry to say but my video will decay your alpha. Get the full secret in my paid telegram channel.
Also no PhD required for this, just an RA certification will do 😉
Sometimes its better to stay away from the markets when short vol overnight 😅😅
@AlgoTest_in
wasn't running during muhurat trading, would've been massively short deltas and would've definitely rebalanced had i been in front of the screen
These may seem relatively uncorrelated at first sight, BUT this will not always be true. In finance, under extreme conditions, stable correlations calculated based on historical estimates have a habit of "breaking down". During periods of uncertainty...(contd)
/4
@AshishGupta325
@mnopro
@subham_banka
@KaranKuria
@SarangSood
@VohiCapital
Yep, Occam's razor argument is precisely this. As to why this is not being represented in the 41.5k strike, there isn't very much of a difference in the margin benefit I'm getting being long the 41.5k vs 42 CE (9k over 3 days),but ₹ cost of 41.5k > 42k CE (by ₹1 = ₹25 per lot)
Even Siri reminding me of
#FINNIFTY
expiry today 😂😂
No Siri, I don’t want to see the latest change for FINNIFTY!
As a retail trader, I certainly don’t want to be reminded of random daily fluctuations
@mnopro
@SarangSood
Lol ouch. The success or failure of an algo is downstream of edge, and then maybe some luck (eg running a strategy fitted to a market regime during that market regime)
We've rolled out a mini-feature this week that can help quantify edge. Its in MVP mode, available on the
Baj Finance call center lady called Michael Burry many times in last month regarding car loan. Mike has now built massive short position to get back at them.
Axis, Indusind, Idfc bank vols will spike next, pls position yourself accordingly
Also, this is a joke, and i am not
We won't go into what phenomenon the correlation coefficient actually measures (google it), but we will talk about whether this 0.11 means that 9:20 and 10:20 short straddle strategies are relatively uncorrelated or not?
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@mnopro
You raise a really good q. I've only observed this strategy working wonders in the Indian markets, nowhere else. Breaking down the pnl of a 920 trade in terms of delta pnl and vega pnl gives interesting hints.
Interesting read with some parallels with backtesting trading strategies - they backtested with data from a period where house prices steadily went only up. Important to stress your strategy by considering/simulating as many different market regimes as possible
Zillow’s home buying business lost them $500,000,000, 25% of their stock value, and 25% of their workforce.
How did this happen to a company with so much data on housing prices?
Bad model evaluation.
Here’s the fatal error they made that you must avoid when deploying models🧵
@SamHarrisOrg
Sam's works on meditation, honesty, free will have had a HUGE impact on my life
Lesson for all of us - NO ONE is immune to tribalism & in-group loyalty
The smarter you are, the better you'll be able to craft an internal narrative that makes you believe you're not being tribal.
When a transaction is deemed "clearly erroneous", it is nullified with a suitable penalty.
Here is NASDAQ's online form where you can report your clearly erroneous transactions for review -
Does anyone know if something like this exists for the NSE?
"Don't sell vol when vix too low coz some unexpected catastrophe will eventually destroy you"
If we haven't seen the disaster yet, there's some evidence that it'll never happen
The absence of said disaster is certainly no evidence that it WILL happen
So becho jode becho 😉
While the FTX saga continues to unfold & we await the Indian fintwit m2m battle royale (up next
@BandiShreyas
vs
@baapofchart
), here's a fun piece of history from the world of finance!
Presenting a 367-year old perpetual bond still paying interest!
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@mnopro
If vol were fairly priced, then in the looong run, irrespective of the variance of the trade, the EV of this trade would be 0. Backtestng over a finite period shows a +EV if you're short. Doesn't mean that it's +EV, but just that it's been +EV since inception of weekly options
Back in the day, we encountered something similar when Goldman's options quoting software misfired and they ended up selling a bunch of deep ITM options for $1.
In the US markets, there is provision for "clearly erroneous" transactions
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