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Research service with the goal of democratizing finance. Making institutional-quality insights and research available to the public.

https://t.co/9GI3iaM2W6
Joined January 2021
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
4 months
Our institutional offering encompasses a wide range of solutions designed to meet the sophisticated needs of investment professionals. Email us at info @prometheus -research.com to learn more. 🔥
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Our Product Offering

Our institutional offering encompasses a wide range of solutions designed to meet the sophisticated needs of investment professionals. We designed Prometheus Institutional to provide a comprehensive...

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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
1 year
🧵Why Hasn't The Recession Materilized? 1/ The Fed has tightened policy, yield curves have inverted, & leading indicators have contracted. Yet, economic data continues to show resilience, and asset markets have held up, causing a great deal of debate. We offer our thoughts.
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2 years
Our systems estimate that CPI will increase 0.36% versus the prior month, while consensus expects a 0.2% increase. The primary driver of our forecast is Housing inflation, with a contribution of 0.15%. Our systems estimate a 71.84% probability of a surprise
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2 years
TRADING A RECESSION 101 1/17 Recent labor market data surprised consensus once again, painting a picture of a strong economy, i.e. no recession. We think a further understanding of how capitalise on a recession in markets is required in this context. A thread:
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1 year
🧵The Impact Of Treasury Issuance 1/ In H2 of 2023, the Treasury is set to issue close to approximately $1.9 trillion in new borrowing. This will likely have significant impacts on liquidity and macro markets. We discuss our views.
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1 year
🧵Understanding & Contextualizing Liquidity 1/ Much has been said about liquidity on this platform. Furthermore, there has been a good deal of oversimplification on the subject. In this thread, we share our conceptual framework for liquidity & help contextualize where we are..
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ON CPI Surprise 1/2 Our systems estimate that CPI will increase 0.39% versus the prior month, while consensus expects a 0.3% increase.
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2 years
Our latest edition of Month In Macro is out! Over the course of 30 pages of analysis, we connect the dots across virtually every major economic data release to assess the state of the US economy & its likely trajectory. And yes, it's free. Enjoy!
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9 months
Understanding Treasury QRA🧵 1/20 Treasury issuance has become an important factor for overall policy conditions and macro dynamics. We share our views on mechanisms at work. In the QRA documents, the Treasury offers forward-looking estimates of the supply of treasury
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2 years
PROMETHEUS ETF PORTFOLIO: We're incredibly excited to announce the launch of our systematic ETF research! Over 18 pages, we outline our approach to systematic portfolio construction- which we will now provide weekly for 37 ETFs. And yes, it's free.
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Prometheus ETF Portfolio

Official Launch Of Our ETF Portfolio Research

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2 years
Our systems expect a disappointment in consensus expectations of CPI tomorrow. Our systems expect a CPI print of 0.36% versus consensus expectations of 0.6%.
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2 years
MACRO MECHANICS: GROWTH 1/ Macro investors spend a great deal of time & effort trying to understand the trajectory of future economic growth to understand the path for asset prices. However, it is often unlcear how growth mechanically flows to assets. We share our framework.
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2 years
ON LIQUIDITY 1/18 Much has been said about liquidity on this platform and elsewhere, and we think it important to share our framework. In this thread, we will deal primarily with sovereign liquidity or policy liquidity.
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1 year
🧵Is Monetary Policy Ineffective? 1/ Policy rates have risen in historic fashion, but activity remains resilient. Monetary policy lags are well known, but the drivers of lags are less discussed. We offer our thoughts on the mechanics of policy transmission.
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1 year
PROMETHEUS ETF PORTFOLIO: LAUNCH 1/ For years, we have provided elite institutional research to the public at zero cost. At 8:30AM ET, we take the next logical step in our evolution with our first paid subscription- Prometheus ETF Portfolio: Next Gen. Details below.
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1 year
25/ .....than liabilities. There are two ways to a recession: liabilities continue to contract, or income deteriorates very significantly. As always, reality will e somewhere in between. We hope this helped understand the dynamics at play. Thanks for reading.
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1 year
Prometheus ETF Portfolio: Next-Gen 💡 After years of R&D, we're going to be launching our next generation of products. Simple, easy-to-implement (5 ETFs) macro investment strategies for everyday investors. Beta + alpha, low drawdowns, easy implementation, & low turnover:
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2 years
This week, our Prometheus ETF Portfolio was long both stocks and bonds— which has paid off well. Headed into CPI tomorrow, we counselled our subscribers to exit these positions. Read why here:
The Observatory

Potential CPI Surprise: Exit Stocks & Bonds

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1 year
🧵Notes On The Liquidity Picture 1/ Liquidity is a vast concept that spans the balance sheet capacity across the economy. In this thread, we take a look through those that are particularly relevant to the financial system and markets.
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2 years
1/3 Stagflationary environments are dramatically different from what we have seen over the last 40 years. We show the cumulative returns on major asset classes, divided into two different starting bases to show the secular outcomes. Massive difference in stock/bond performance
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1 year
🧵Thoughts On The Inflation Environment And What It Means For Markets 1/ Inflation remains one of the most important drivers of macro markets today. However, the subject remains well-debated. We offer our thoughts on how we see the picture and what it means for markets....
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2 years
ON GDP & PROFITS 1/ Many are focused on recent GDP data, but we are focused on profit implications. Our latest estimate shows YoY profits at approximately 8%. We discuss the drivers at play:
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3 years
Slowdowns continue to manifest in US economic data. We show our data monitor below which shows slowdowns in real estate, risk premia, and real incomes. The next shoe to drop will likely be PMI surveys, which we are watching for carefully:
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1 year
There will come a time to buy Treasury bonds in size $TLT $IEF. In our view, it’s not now.
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1 year
“A recession is inevitable so own bonds” is the same as saying “the economy goes up over time, own stocks”.
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1 month
Are We In A Recession Yet? A recession is a persistent and pervasive decline in output, spending, income, and employment. 1/14 A thread looking across a wide range of measures to see whether we meet these criteria...
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2 years
17/ Overall, the majority of gains from betting on a recession are to be made before it’s a high probability, not after. We think we are in that regime. However, it’s important to recognise that all macro bets have a big. probability of being wrong. Own a diversified set of bets.
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1 year
🧵A Comprehensive Framework For Macro Investing 1/24 Recently, @menon_aahan joined @Globalflows to talk about our framework for macro investing. Subsequent conversations led us to believe that a more detailed exploration is required. In this thread, we share our framework....
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2 years
We were wrong on this one. For context: The goods components were well within reason, with the broader pressures we've noted in our Month In Macro flowing through. Services ex-housing was a surprise for us, mainly energy & medical care. Housing a touch softer but marginal.
@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
2 years
ON CPI Surprise 1/2 Our systems estimate that CPI will increase 0.39% versus the prior month, while consensus expects a 0.3% increase.
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Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
2 years
Our systems estimate that CPI will increase 0.36% versus the prior month, while consensus expects a 0.2% increase. The primary driver of our forecast is Housing inflation, with a contribution of 0.15%. Our systems estimate a 71.84% probability of a surprise
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Prometheus Research
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2 years
Our latest edition of Month In Macro is out! Over the course of 35 pages of analysis, we connect the dots across every major economic data release to assess the state of the US economy & its likely trajectory. And yes, it's free. Enjoy!
Month In Macro

November Edition

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2 years
ON CPI Surprise 1/2 Our systems expect a disappointment in consensus expectations of CPI tomorrow. Our systems expect a CPI print of 0.36% versus consensus expectations of 0.6%.
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2 years
ON LABOR MARKETS 1/ Many are focused on labor data & what it implies for the cycle. We offer our thoughts & attempt to contextualize. We continue to expect a weakening down the road despite today's print. Starting with the high level, nonfarm payrolls sequentially shot up:
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2 years
1/ This week, our Prometheus ETF Portfolio was long both stocks and bonds— which has paid off well. Headed into CPI tomorrow, we counselled our subscribers to exit these positions. This is why:
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Prometheus Research
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1 year
🧵Thoughts On Real Estate In Context Of The Current Economic Cycle 1/ Real estate is considered an important barometer of both economic health &the business cycle. Real estate has seen cross-currents during this slowdown, leading to confusion in the diagnosis. We discuss...
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1 year
List of people other than us who had issuance mechanics correct BEFORE the move: @dampedspring 🔥🔥🔥
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2 years
ON THE PATH FOR INTEREST RATES 1/ During past periods of stagflationary nominal growth (highlighted in grey), policy rates need to be in excess of nominal growth to break the inflationary spiral (instances circled):
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1 year
Corporate profits are falling, borrowing is slowing, and cash holdings are rising as nominal growth decelerates & interest expense rises. The impacts of policy tightening are ahead of us not behind:
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1 year
25/.... Overall, the liqudity picture looks set to worsen relative to recent past. The increase in bond supply is likely to weight on bonds. Issuance will weigh on equities, but requires more factors for a comprehensive veiw. We hope this helps, thanks for reading.
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3 months
Where Are We In The Economic Cycle? The Fed has tightened policy to levels not seen in decades. Yet, the economy has stayed strong & equity markets are at highs. Is the traditional recession template useless? 1/30 We explore the mechanics & share our outlook.
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1 year
🧵The Next Stages Of The Growth Cycle 1/ Tightening liquidity has resumed. This is a pressure on all assets. The question remains how these pressures will be distributed between assets - which will depend on how these tightening pressures impact the growth cycle. We discuss.
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1 year
It’s probably reasonable to start worrying about employment now.
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1 year
🧵Notes From Our Latest Month In Macro 1/ Last month, we 45 pages on why we thought it made sense to be flat stocks & short bonds. Short bonds paid off well. Being flat stocks was an opportunity cost vs. cash. It didn't help, but it also didn't hurt. We update our thoughts:
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1 year
Some thoughts on where we are in the economic cycle and the market opportunities: 1/12 The next stage in this business cycle will be determined by whether the labor market can continue to support spending.
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Prometheus Research
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2 years
Episode 7 of the Prometheus Podcast is out! We had the pleasure of sitting down with the incisive @dampedspring to discuss his framework for nimbly trading macro, risk-premiums & flows. If you're trying to generate alpha this year, listen NOW!
Prometheus Podcast

Episode 7: Andy Constan

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2 years
ON OUTPUT & EMPLOYMENT 1/ There is an intrinsic link between output and employment. As businesses create more output, they create more income which allows for more spending, which requires more employment.
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2 years
BANKING CRISIS? 1/16 We don’t expect contagion like 2008. As systematic macro investors, we aren’t qualified to comment on any 1 bank— there are other great resources here for that @dampedspring @BobEUnlimited @abcampbell . However, we share our macro perspective…
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5 months
On Liquidity Dynamics🧵 1. Liquidity is the flow of cash-like assets that potentiate spending in the real and financial economy. Liquidity potentiates returns across assets, while the nominal growth environment determines the distribution of returns within assets.
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3 years
We're excited to announce that we will soon launch The Observatory, which will be published daily. Includes: - Market Regime Signals - Stocks, Comdts, & Bond Signals - Growth, Inflation, & Liquidity Analysis - Macro Commentary Also, it's FREE.
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2 years
SLOWING GROWTH 1/ Our proprietary market regime probabilities continue to show markets pricing high odds of sustained inflation, alongside tightening liquiditiy conditions. The major change since mid- 2022 is the increased pricing of slowing growth:
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2 years
1/ Recessions bring disinflation, and in severe cases, deflation. Our outlook is that US GDP will start moving into contraction, and disinflationary pressures will pick up. We show our GDP forecast below, along with a visualisation of the impact recessions have on inflation:
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1 year
Huge treasury supply coming on. Likely to be a lot of duration supply. Big headwind for bonds. Negative for stocks as well, but drivers more mixed.
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2 years
🧵A short note on the real GDP path ahead. 1/8 We recieved many questions on our expectations for real GDP, & we think its important to share some thoughts. To start, we show our TReal GDP monitor which updates our GDP expectations as new data is available:
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2 years
2/2 The primary driver of our estimate is housing inflation, which our systems expect to be the largest contributor to the print. Relative to consensus, we expect that goods inflation will likely be a contributor to inflation rather than a detractor, as predicted by consensus.
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2 years
BIG PICTURE OUTLOOK 1/ Nominal growth remains extremely strong, with real growth measures re-accelerating last month, with a modest cooling in inflation measures. We show our nominal GDP tracking below:
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1 year
Little known fact: equities are pricing in cuts too.
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1 year
Our latest Month In Macro🔥🔥 50 pages of the most granular and actionable macro research you’ll find. Read it here:
July Edition

Our best Month In Macro to date. 50 pages of the most granular and actionable systematic macro research you will find anywhere.

prometheus-research.com
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1 year
A Sharpe Ratio north of 0.60 over multiple decades likely puts you in a the top 25% of asset managers of all-time.
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10 months
Thoughts On The Equity Rally 🧵 1/11 GDP conditions continue to evolve in a manner largely inconsistent with a recession. Cyclical conditions continue to remains strong. Equity markets have rallied to reflect this, but there may be further gains to go…..
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2 years
We’re excited to announce that we’ve teamed up with @kylascan to bring you video content in addition to our research! In this short video, Kyla goes through how we’re thinking about the economy, markets,& how to position to manage stagflation. Enjoy!
The Week Ahead (Video)

The Week Ahead With Kyla Scanlon

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1 year
🧵 On Liquidity Improvement 1/10 Liquidity is the flow of cash & cash-like assets that potentiates economic and market activity. In this thread, we discuss some of the components of the liquidity ecosystem. Particularly, we focus on short-term liquid assets:
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2 years
@MacroAlf @MacroAlf some thoughts on the same dynamics here:
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Cyclical Outlook

Tightening Liquidity + Recession Signal = Short Equities?

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2 months
Top Accountability List: @DariusDale42 @2GrayBeards @Citrini7 @3F_Research The above have transparent performance & cumulative portfolio PnL over time. It’s not just a collection of trades, which is fine, but not gold the standard. These guys get 🥇from Prometheus.
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Thoughts On Indicator Selection 1/ There is a lot of conflicting discussion around macro indicators, which ones to use & how to interpret in current context. Given we spend almost all our time turning this into investment strategies, we offer our views….
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2 years
ON HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEETS 1/ Households have chosen to reduce their savings rates to generational lows, and increase their borrowing, as aggregate nominal income stayed strong in 2022.
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4/ .... as we can examine them in real-time and potentially forecast them ahead of time. A recession is a pronounced and persistent decline in spending, income, output, and employment. As market participants, these periods tend to be of significant importance, as they are usually
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6 months
Retiring Stocks Over Bonds
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2 years
PROMETHEUS CPI FORECAST Our systems expect CPI to come in lower than the consensus expectation. More specifically, our systems estimate that CPI will increase 0.38% versus the prior month, while consensus expects a 0.5% increase.
The Observatory

Potential CPI Disappointment: Long Stocks

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1 month
Diversification is not about the number of positions in a portfolio. It’s about the number of independent bets. When you not just understand this, but can quantify it appropriately, that’s when exciting things begin to happen for your portfolio.
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1 year
Long 10-Year Bonds? Not Yet🤖 We share one of our many systematic macro strategies, which switches between 10-Year Bonds & T-bills. This type of strategy typically suits slower-moving investors. It remains in cash, consistent with all our other signals.
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1 year
We think we’re in a slowdown that will turn into a #recession , but based on current dynamics, it will be a slow process. We do not think we are currently in a recession, but the recession risk is currently elevated relative to recent history. Below is our recession risk gauge.
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2 years
This is going to be 🔥. @BobEUnlimited & @dampedspring will join us post #FOMC to discuss all things Macro & Markets. This promises to be an extremely insightful conversation- so save the date!
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5 months
Gross interest expense for companies has risen, net interest expense has only begun to rise. Without further changes to policy, the likely path for net interest expense is higher. That’s not great for equities
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1 year
16/...... this creates a maturity mismatch where the private sector is, at least for a time, a net beneficiary of tight monetary policy. The combination of reduced industrial exposure and increased government assets makes the private sector more resilient to rate hikes...
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2 years
Read the full analysis here:
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1 year
Dissecting CPI 🧵👇 1. While over 300 line items drive CPI that we have visibility into, we can condense these measures into four broad categories that account for the bulk of the variations: food, energy, transportation, and shelter. We show this composition below:
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1 year
Short stocks & bonds.
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1 year
GM. Bonds keep looking cheaper everyday.
@conksresearch
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1 year
gm, say it back "bonds look cheap here"
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9/ The conditions necessary for a further profit contraction continue to build. Nominal GDP has decelerated, consistent with weaker topline sales:
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🔥🔥🔥 Our best Month In Macro to date. 56 pages of the most granular and actionable systematic macro research you will find anywhere: #Subscribe
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August Edition

Our best Month In Macro to date. 56 pages of the most granular and actionable systematic macro research you will find anywhere. Click the link below to begin reading: Month In Macro- August 2023 This…

prometheus-research.com
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1 year
2/ Before we start discussing the drivers of recession, we think it is important to define how we think about recessions. The technical definition of a recession and its classification is defined by the NBER. While this is a fairly rigorous evaluation...
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1 year
What if the real risk for markets is that the Fed would be making a mistake by pausing?
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1 year
5/.... self-reinforcing spirals downwards. Lower employment leads to lower spending, which drives lower income, which leads to layoffs, and so forth. These spirals are usually broken through the easing of monetary policy, allowing for employment to stabilize....
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@prometheusmacro
1 year
20/ The combination of these dynamics creates a late-cycle economy that is resilient to policy tightening relative to anything we've experienced in recent history. Navigating this turning point will be crucial for market participants as it can mean the difference between...
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
1 year
3/ ... this evaluation is done ex-post, at least a year after the onset of the recession. As market participants, this official classification is largely unhelpful, as ideally, we want a real-time, if not ex-ante. However, the pillars that define a recession are valuable...
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
27 days
We need a macro version of this:
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
1 year
1. Using our understanding of cross-asset market pricing, we can derive the market-implied odds of varying regimes of growth, inflation, and liquidity. Currently, our proprietary process suggests that we are in a period of (+) G (-) I.
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
2 years
2023: THE YEAR OF LABOR IMPACT FROM PROFITS 1/ The changes in profitability will drive changes in labor markets. A major source of profitability is the reinvestment of businesses to create future output. Today's construction data implies weaker investment conditions:
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
1 year
7/ ..... to a recession. These leading indicators are all largely tied to interest rates; examples include policy rates, yield curves, housing demand, durable goods demand, etc. The intuition is that interest rate tightening causes recessions and those segments of the economy....
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
1 year
11/... the first is the recomposition of the economy to move from one reliant on manufacturing to one dominated by services spending. Manufacturing, goods & real estate spending are more levered in their production and consumption- making an economy more exposed to interest rate
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
5 months
Liquidity top?
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
2 years
Our note from The Observatory yesterday proved to be timely— telegraphing the cooling in #CPI this morning. While we try to add value here, we offer so much more detail in our research. And yes, it’s totally free. So why haven’t you #subscribed ?
The Observatory

Potential CPI Disappointment Tomorrow

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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
8 months
Maybe supply always mattered?
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
1 year
Our Economic Cycle Strategies: Long commodities, short stocks & bonds 🤖 🔥🔥🔥
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
2 years
4/ which results in a contraction in profits. These profit pressures eventually lead to lay-offs, which precipitate a recession. The important thing to recognise here is that labor markets are the last (and most impactful) part of the economy to give way, especially…
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
2 years
We're excited to announce that our latest edition of Month In Macro is now available! 32 pages of some of the most granular and rigorous macroeconomic insights out there, designed to help investors navigate this economic cycle. And, yes. It's free.
Month In Macro

January Edition

prometheusresearch.substack.com
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
2 years
Our latest edition of Month In Macro is out! Over the course of 35 pages of analysis, we connect the dots across every major economic data release to assess the state of the US economy & its likely trajectory. And yes, it's free. Enjoy!
Month In Macro

November Edition

prometheusresearch.substack.com
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
2 years
ON INFLATION 1/ CPI Inflation increased by 0.52% in January, surpassing consensus expectations of 0.5%. This print contributed to a sequential deceleration in the quarterly trend relative to the yearly trend.
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
1 year
🧵BEATING 60/40? 1/ Typically, in macro, we focus on making alpha via going long/short a variety of assets. However, these can often be too complex for everyday investors. Today, we try to bridge some of this gap & share a simple macro strategy that aims to time stocks & bonds:
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
2 years
Why Is Production Growing? 1/ While this warrants a longer discussion, we think a few thoughts should help. Industrial production came out strong today- which led many to highlight the divergence between real & survey data (PMIs). We think there's a lot going on under the hood
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@prometheusmacro
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacro
1 year
45 pages of macro, markets, & signals dropping tomorrow. Yes, for free. #Subscribe
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