Amen! All praises to my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ. The new has me feeling incredibly blessed about the historically unique path I've taken to become a trusted voice across global Wall Street. This is worth your time to review: .
You have two choices to decide from each day you wake up.
1. Attack and alienate others to make yourself feel important.
2. Uplift others to make them feel valued.
Scenario 1 leads to a lonely, sad existence. Scenario 2 leads to a beautiful, happy
#community
. Choose wisely! ❤️
Please welcome Jackson Dale to the world!
Thanks in advance for the well wishes,
#Team42
! We appreciate you.
Mom and baby are both healthy. God is [always] good.
Have a great day!
-Skipper
I am deeply saddened and truly disgusted by the heinous act of intimidation pursued by
@Hedgeye
. I too have been a victim of
@mablum
and
@KeithMcCullough
's harassment. I tweet to show support for my friend
@WifeyAlpha
and his family. Let us pray for my unstable former colleagues.
First, I would like to thank the Wifey Fam for such an amazing year. I hope my family has helped yours, as you have helped mine.
As some of you know, and for those who do not, the Wifey household has been doxxed.
The secret to my success is actually quite simple:
1. Don't front-run your customers
2. Don't be an internet bully
3. Don't belittle other investors for holding opposing views
4. Don't take money from the gov't designed to help the little guy and use it for a private jet
Howdy
#Team42
,
Today was arguably the worst day of my career. In totality, this is probably the worst week.
THANK YOU for not only making it far better than it otherwise would have been, but for also helping me see the light.
P.S. I sucked today, but I still made Mom proud! ❤️
This is the most important thing I have said about Macro — and what you need to pay attention to to profit from Macro cycles — in my entire career.
s/o to
@APompliano
for always asking such brilliant questions. Enjoy and take notes!
VIX < 20 = 🤦♂️
The Phase 1 Liquidity Cycle downturn just got extended by the Fed, ECB, BOE, and BOJ. Moreover, the PBOC is held hostage by their actions.
We haven't even begun to price in the Phase 2 Credit Cycle downturn associated w/ the global recession of 2023-24.
Yikes.
I don't think the
@federalreserve
has enough TIME to condition markets to expect a massive shift higher in the SPEED of policy rate normalization. Translation: ignore their now-stale Principles guidance on QT. It is likely their balance sheet must CONTRACT at a much faster SPEED.
Hi
#Team42
, thank you for all the well wishes! 🎉 This has been the best year of my adult life and a big part of that blessing has been connecting w/ you. ❤️ Business is booming. My love life is booming. And I just saved a lot of money in my car insurance by switching to
@GEICO
.
Many thanks to each of you for all the love and support! Our family is very grateful for all the congratulatory messages and parenting wisdom you’ve shared. It’s a blessing to bring Jackson into a world in which he is surrounded by love from all over the globe.
I won’t have time
Please welcome Jackson Dale to the world!
Thanks in advance for the well wishes,
#Team42
! We appreciate you.
Mom and baby are both healthy. God is [always] good.
Have a great day!
-Skipper
What. A. Year!
As you know, I manage my entire liquid net worth via the
@42macro
Portfolio Construction. This was my worst year trading and I still only lost -3.34%.
Down 334bps compares to:
$SPY -20%
$QQQ -33%
$TLT -33%
#Bitcoin
-64%
#Ethereum
-68%
Macro. Risk. Management!
Happy
#MLKDay2022
! Let us all honor Dr. King’s legacy — and the legacies of all the brave heroes of civil rights movements around the world — by learning about the work that still needs to be done to combat systemic poverty, unequal opportunity, and criminal (in)justice. ☮️❤️
The stock market is making me nervous about a deeper pullback. It is trading over a percent below the Lower Boundary of its Probable Range, indicating it wants to at least break down to neutral from the perspective of our Volatility-Adjusted Momentum Signal (VAMS).
THREAD 1/
Amid all the noisy narratives surrounding
#inflation
dynamics, what percentage of investors do you think woke up today knowing that bonds have outperformed stocks over the past six months?
A Fiscal Crisis Is Coming By 2030 And We Have Both Republicans And Democrats To Blame
In my recent appearance on Thoughtful Money with our friend Adam Taggart
@menlobear
, we unpacked the
#math
we use to project a US fiscal crisis by 2030 and how both
@TheDemocrats
and the
@GOP
Good morning and God bless. Best of luck with
#TheGrind
today!
After 12yrs helping build my former shop, I’m exited to begin this new journey with you. Stay tuned for details regarding my new website and product offering. Praise God 🙏🏾 for allowing me to pursue my dreams! 🚀🚀🚀
The summary of my last 3 tweets is as follows:
1. This is a good spot for those that believe in the Q1 bull case (I still do... for now), to begin covering shorts and grossing up long exposure.
2. If we do not rally hard from at most 1-2% below these levels... SELL EVERYTHING.
Thanks to everyone for your well wishes today. It really means a lot. Not really sure yet what direction I’ll be going or what new products will be wanted, but trust they will be exciting and disruptive. I’ll be spending the next few weeks trying to figure that out. Stay tuned!🙏🏾
I don’t think I said one number or gave one forecast in this interview with
@elliotrades
, but it still might be the interview of the year. Sometimes we as investors need to relax and go back to the basics of what it actually means to manage risk. Enjoy!
About damn time. I pray that instead of funding their next buyback program, $MSFT reinvests the capital saved from canceling their DEI program into programs that *actually* promote diversity, equity, and inclusion in our capitalist American society like funding access to
Someone big is blowing up today. The top half/first two panels of this chart is very much not signaling the same thing as the bottom two panels (it should) -- and by a material degree. I said something smelt fishy yesterday and I meant it...
One of the worst moments in American history. If you didn’t know there was a ruling class here — despite all the best intentions of our founding fathers — there is. And chances are you’re not part of it. In fact, if you don’t know whether you are or not, you aren’t. CC
@SecYellen
Monday morning we go live w/ pricing and the ability to sign up. Many thanks to each of you for supporting my
#AmericanDream
! 🇺🇸 First one in my family to attend college, work a salaried job, and now own a business. Many boys wind up dead or in jail where I’m from. 🙏🏾 Exodus 15:2
A heartfelt public service announcement for
#Team42
. We are likely the only global community on this platform with little-to-no trolling, consistently respectful discourse, and self policing when newbies get out of line. I’ve had to block < 20 people in 18mos. That’s amazing. ❤️
The decisions investors make on days like today tend to have an outsized influence on their progress (or lack thereof) towards achieving their strategic investment objectives. Sharing today's
@42macro
Leadoff Morning Note for free: . We'll review in 2-3mos.
A lot of y'all are out here playing partisan checkers, pointing fingers at the other side. I'm trying to get you to start playing
#FourthTurning
chess before it's too late to save OUR children and grandchildren from OUR mistakes.
You're a gullible fool if you don't share my
When I started in this biz nearly 15yrs ago, I remember getting incurably sick to my stomach about how much inequality the
@federalreserve
was likely to create with its easy money policies, leaving my people (read: poor people) behind in the process. Fast
Happy
#Juneteenth
to our global
#Team42
community!
It is not lost on me that I am a relatively young Black man performing a service for predominantly older White and Asian people (because that is where the wealth is concentrated — both domestically and globally). My beloved
I'm a few days late, but flagging in case you've missed this GEM from
@LynAldenContact
and
@WClementeIII
.
I've spent much of the past 13yrs meeting w/ the top Macro PMs & fund CIOs around the world and Lyn's mind is up there w/ the best of them. Enjoy! 🚀
If you’re going to be “irresponsibly long”
#Bitcoin
,
#Ethererum
, or any other
#crypto
token, then please use the
@42Macro
Discretionary Risk Management Overlay aka “Dr. Mo” to dial up and dial down your exposure. You will compound returns far better trusting Dr. Mo over fanciful
You have to question the integrity of someone who consistently lies to hundreds of thousands of people about what they allegedly invented... years AFTER other investors popularized the framework. FWIW, I copied Bridgewater when I began designing and developing
#TheQuads
in 2011.
Good morning and God bless! Time to focus on the
#NextPlay
.
The
@cz_binance
-
@SBF_FTX
drama teaches our
#Crypto
friends three lessons:
1. Decentralization is a self-serving illusion
2. Macro > Micro when Macro is bad
3. USD liquidity trumps all until $ is not the reserve currency
Big fan of
@elliotrades
' energy!
When we started
@42macro
, our goal was to level the Macro playing field between our institutional clients and our retail investor subscribers. We've done that in spades, all while adding a ton of value to both cohorts and every cohort in between.
This chart shows why Jay Powell isn't freaking out about INFLATION: household incomes have grown twice as fast as consumer prices since the FEB '20 cycle peak in the labor market. Consumers see prices rising, but are not being squeezed by price pressures like they usually would.
No live Macro Minute today or tomorrow; just charts: . If you find yourself missing the commentary, consider
#subscribing
to our Leadoff Morning Note at . 🚀
We'll return after Memorial Day on Tuesday 5/31.
Bonne journée mes amis!
A: The Holy Bible. It’s the only thousand-plus word book about you (read: humanity). Whether or not you believe is for you to decide. But you can’t argue with the wisdom and understanding one gets from Bible study. Human behavior in 500 B.C. = human behavior in 2022.
Twenty years ago I was a senior at West Seattle High School enjoying an eventual all-state season. It was my first year as a starter — I missed my junior season after a horrific injury to my knee. I was a “late bloomer” in the truest sense of the phrase: .
I love meeting
#ThePeople
because I am one of
#ThePeople
. Democratizing the best of Wall St. for everyday folks and oppressed kids in sh!tty environments all around the world like the one I grew up in is core to my being. No amount of hate will stop me from achieving that goal.🚀
Excited for the official launch of tomorrow! All who’ve signed up for launch details will receive a complimentary Leadoff Morning Note tomorrow and an Around the Horn Weekly next weekend.
Many thanks for your support and God Bless!
Updated top shelf
@42macro
reading list.
Investors regularly ask me for the 1-2 things they must study to master the art of Macro Risk Management and the science that underpins it. My reply is consistent each time: 1) any discipline featuring pattern recognition; and 2) Google.
One of our
#subscribers
who runs a billion+ dollar hedge fund sent me this cheat sheet to share w/ the rest of
#team42
. Of all the things he could do on a Sunday, he chose to do this. I continue to be humbled by the generosity of the global community we're building at
@42macro
!🙏
I’m starting to grow concerned that the Fed pivot we are all focused on is not the pivot that will prompt the next bull market.
Sure, markets will melt up for a while when the Fed confirms a pause. But I’m less sure the ultimate lows will be in for most risk assets by then.
I hope y’all realize when the Fed finally does “pivot”, overnight rates will be stuck at 5% for the following ~year… unless all hell breaks loose in the interim above and beyond the mild recession the FOMC is already implicitly forecasting with their U3 and Core PCE projections.
You’d be surprised at how much you can learn and prosper simply by being kind.
Treat people how you want your kids to be treated and watch how much you receive that same energy in return.
Same works in reverse. Bad energy breeds negativity, which always leaves you worse off. 😘
⚠️ This brief excerpt from our most recent weekly Around the Horn presentation carries a very important risk management message regarding
#OPEX
that we believe must be shared with our broader
#Team42
community.
Whether you’re hod’ling a single high volatility exposure w/ all your capital or overseeing a trillion dollars of diversified risk, 👇🏾 is a must watch if you plan to avoid resting on REFLATION’s laurels by doing what it takes to outperform in 2H21. Don’t give back all your gains!
“The back half of the year could see persistent economic/earnings disappointments…”
CEO of
@42macro
,
@42macroDDale
introduces his GRID regime framework & breaks down his macro outlook for the year with
@edwardnh
.
Lots to unpack in this one...
Watch 👉
HO-LY cow. I can’t believe this video was free! This is the kind of information the world’s top hedge fund investors use to flex their books. Brent is doing y’all an extremely kind service for publishing this beyond his paywall. Thank him. via
@spotgamma
👇🏾 is the most valuable thread I’ve read all week.
@biancoresearch
is a superstar.
We agree. Per our US
#GRIDModel
, CPI is likely to remain sticky over the next 2-3 quarters.
1/5
The latest inflation Nowcast from the Cleveland Fed
June is projected to be another 1% month, like May, and the YoY for June is projected at 8.7%, a new high (the current YoY peak was also May at 8.6%).
Both
#bulls
and
#bears
are going to lose a lot of money over the next 2-3 quarters. Like, A LOT of money. In this video we summarize why.
The analysis supporting this conclusion is detailed in our latest monthly Macro Scouting Report presentation, exclusively for
@42Macro
#Team42
,
We will be offline for the rest of the day until Tuesday 9/7 while the team and I enjoy some time off. We will also use this time to try to work things out w/
@keithmccullough
and
@hedgeye
. Thank you for your support and understanding.
Best of luck out there this week!
If you’re reading this tweet, you’re likely
#blessed
in more ways than most of us make time to count. As we head into the crescendo of the holiday season over the next 10 days, please remember to pass those
#blessings
on to the community around you.
With love and gratitude,
-DD
Respectfully, the GOP said the exact same thing in 2017, and all it did was add ~$2 TRILLION dollars to the national debt that everyone here complains about. Extending the
#Trump
tax cuts would add another ~$2 TRILLION in national debt, but who’s counting?
This is a must-read
I had amazing time connecting with
@MacroAlf
and
@AndreasSteno
in this episode. Both men are friends, classy gentlemen, and two of the best Macro minds on the planet. Enjoy! 🚀
.
@42macroDDale
correctly forecasted:
- A slowdown in economic growth
- An end to the reflation trade & pricing in a bear market throughout 2022
Now he believes we have hit peak inflation.
Learn why:
Apple:
Spotify:
1/x “There have been few, if any, instances in which inflation has been successfully stabilized w/out recession…Every U.S. economic expansion between the Korean War & Paul A. Volcker’s slaying of inflation after 1979 ended as the Federal Reserve tried
I’ll tell you what, this is one of the best podcast episodes I’ve enjoyed to date.
@dampedspring
’s interview w/
@kevinmuir
is a masterclass on the technical drivers of asset markets and macro risk management.
An absolute must-listen. 1/
I strongly believe
@42macro
does as good a job as anyone on Global Wall St. helping retail investors make and save money -- with the exception of
@WifeyAlpha
, lol. 😅 Few teach Macro as well as we do too.
Come check us out!
Over the past couple of days I’ve been so
#blessed
by all your kindness and support. I want to get back to each one of you, but, alas — duty calls. I’m going “dark” for the next week+ and will re-emerge with what you want: DD-quality research. Stay tuned!
👇 = me interviewing
@jam_croissant
just now. Y'all are going to LOVE this discussion!
We covered a TON of ground w/r/t the outlook for asset markets. Lots of investment
#process
coaching in there too. God bless
@RealVision
for democratizing the highest tiers of finance for all!
GREAT advice. I’ll take it a step further: don’t risk manage your PnL. Risk manage the evolving shape of the distribution of probable outcomes instead.
#TheCycle
doesn’t give a sh!t about your unrealized gains or losses.
If you lost money during the selloff. Don't think you will make it back during the bounce. Rather think you will make it back when we are out of the bear market in several months. Don't do revenge trading
In retrospect,
@SBF_FTX
was kind of a piece of sh!t, no? That’s our former Commander in Chief he’s sitting next to. He’s acting like he’s the lone brilliant mind in finance.
Piece of advice: when you’re sitting in front of a federal judge, put a damn suit on and sit up straight.
RE: 👇: Here are the current conditional probabilities of the next US macro regime, which will most likely begin in July (keep in mind asset markets will pivot beforehand):
#Goldilocks
: 1.5%
#Reflation
: 0.5%
#Inflation
: 25%
#Deflation
: 73%
Use the "why" to front run the "when".
If wealthy Americans cared as much about the poor as they did about space, we wouldn’t have concomitant child hunger and public education crises — as well as a prison system overpopulated with poor black and brown kids — in our country.
#Bezos
“We have the tools and resolve to return inflation to the
@federalreserve
’s 2% [average] inflation target. The process is highly likely to involve some pain, but an even worse pain would be failing to achieve our objective.”
-Jay Powell, live at the
@ecb
forum
Buy the dip? 😂
To make money in asset markets over the coming 12-18mos, you need to get these right:
1.
@USTreasury
supply and demand
2.
@federalreserve
’s inflation target
Here’s a quick primer on 1 and 2 from our 12/2 Macro Scouting Report. Review the presentation for a deeper understanding.
A: For my self teachers:
1. Thinking, Fast And Slow
2. The (Mis)Behavior of Markets
3.
@RayDalio
4. Inside the House of Money
5. Superforecasting
6. Hedge Fund Risk Fundamentals
7. Atlanta Fed and New York Fed nowcasting white papers
7. Google
8. Wikipedia
9. Investopedia
@42macroDDale
I'm an electrical engineer with a very good package but more and more I find my interest is in economics. I'm 32 and wish i'd figured this out sooner. Would you recommend a university course or to continue self teaching?
My man Alf absolutely NAILED this BTP/Bund spread widening trade. Between guys like him, Lyn, myself, and our other friends — the future of Macro is extremely bright. ☀️ The competition makes us all better and you benefit. For that I am grateful. 🙏🏾
Emergency meeting for the ECB today.
Few days after announcing the end of QE, they might tell us it is already time for a “QE-but-not-QE” to backstop Italy & Co.
We closed all our right tail risk hedges at $SPX 3800 in two tranches (10/5 and 10/24). This last 100pts of the 🐻 bear market rally has been the most fun to watch. I can sense by the popularity of FOMO that a lot of 2022 bag holders really NEED this one to stick.
Best of luck!
Please lend me 1min of your time to review this thread.
One thing that has chapped my arse of late is Fin-Twit’s obsession with characterizing price declines as “disorderly” and “breaking”.
We’re in a central bank-sponsored cross-asset bear market from epic bubble highs… 1/
My recent interview with our friend
@cvpayne
on
@FoxBusiness
is now live.
We discussed conflicting economic data,
#stagflation
, the importance of proper risk management, and more.
If you missed it, you can watch the replay here:
RE: $GOOGL: Somebody always knows something.
This marks the official beginning of the end of the consensus narrative that the economy is “strong enough to withstand rate hikes and QT”. Best of luck risk managing the black hole b/tw now and the eventual dovish pivot. It is large.
Alex Jones has been ordered to pay $965 million in damages to the families of eight Sandy Hook shooting victims.
It's a historic amount for damages in a defamation lawsuit.
This week has aged me for sure, but my courage is sustained by the outpouring of support (and sign-ups) from
#team42
. What a
#blessed
day in that regard.
Sending a heartfelt, big man bear hug to each of you who've sent prayers and encouragement my way. Thank you. Proverbs 24:16
While we can never be too sure of the outcome, we just wrapped up another 126 slides worth of data that suggest the investors buying stonks this week b/c "the economy is still good" will be the ones capitulating at the lows 6-9mos later. Never invest based upon today's narrative.
Risk Assets *should* rip on this downside surprise in Core PCE. A close second to "average", "should" is another one of the most dangerous words in finance. Either way, be careful shorting in the AM. Wait til 3pm ET at the earliest to see how this shakes out in rate expectations.
Sorry for the rant, but this needed to be said: If you got rugged in
#Crypto
this year, IT’S YOUR FAULT.
@APompliano
and
@RaoulGMI
have been telling you to buy hundreds — if not thousands — of percent lower in price! They’ve actually made people money if you evaluate them fairly.
The lack of
#accountability
from our audiences on this platform is sickening at times. But I guess it’s just a microcosm of how most people function: everything good that happens to them is a result of their own brilliance and everything bad that happens is someone else’s fault.
As the late, great John Madden would say, “BOOM!”
BEST EXPERT PREDICTS "UNLIMITED" PRICE FOR BITCOIN THIS DECADE (and more pain short term) via
@elliotrades
@42macro
My playing weight came up while recording w/
@TgMacro
on
@RealVision
yesterday (you’re going to absolutely LOVE the discussion btw). Me thinks it’s time to do the annual unveiling of freshman year Sunny D — just in time for The Game tomorrow. Boola Boola! CC
@HelenTrailer
Just finished the first (of MANY) data visualization tools! I've had a
#blessed
week programming the algorithms I will use to help YOU stay 1-2 steps ahead of investor consensus as skipper of
@42macro
.
Many thanks to each of you who continue to trust
#TheProcess
. Happy Friday!