Max Olson @maxolson Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Max Olson

@maxolson

3,312

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958

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Product @Mashgin . Seed & public market investing. Software/design for fun and profit. Book publisher. Blog: / Buffett book:

Palo Alto, CA

https://t.co/l9JWwMktoX

Joined March 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 months

✨ New features for Berkshire Archive ✨ * Added all meeting transcripts, 1994-2023 * Added new 2023 letter * Faster search * Explore archive in 3D meaning space * Navigate each doc via table of contents (top right) The transcripts add a lot of value -- there is WAY more

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

1/ A recent lightbulb moment of mine was that competitive advantage can be represented visually as 1 or more feedback loops. These create an advantage "flywheel" that maintain and grow a moat over time.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

3/ And some real-world examples I sketched out that combine multiple advantages into the flywheel engines driving growth:

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

2/ Here's a few archetypical examples of common advantages represented as feedback loops:

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@maxolson

Max Olson

7 months

✨ Just launched: A digital archive of all Buffett's letters to shareholders ✨ 🔍 Search the letters by topic, question meaning, or similarity 📖 Browse each letter & search for similar sections (link in thread)

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Anyone interested in the full 10-K with matching page numbers? See

Lehman.2007.pdf

Shared with Dropbox

www.dropbox.com

@NicoleFriedman

Nicole Friedman

@NicoleFriedman

6 years

In March 2008, Warren Buffett read Lehman Brothers' 10-K and made a note of every page where he saw a red flag.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

Just launched: Ask Warren Buffett* anything! Try it out and let me know what you think... * Not actually Buffett, but an AI model with access to his writing. This is just a test/fun experiment + promotion for my Berkshire media.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

🧵 1/n A quick primer on GPT-3 for anyone who's heard about it but doesn't know what it is. Why? GPT is a game-changer in AI that has the potential to disrupt a huge amount of areas, potentially leading to truly generalized AI problem solvers.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

9 months

I'm building a digital Berkshire Hathaway Archive. You'll be able to read, search, and explore Buffett's letters like never before. Working on the search algorithm now.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

1/ One of the models I use most in business analysis is tech stack trees 🌳 Every product is built on and enabled by 1 or more technologies. Understanding where a product fits on its higher-level tech stack is an important part of any long-term strategy or investment thesis.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

@DKThomp

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

6/ I wrote this up in a more detailed post here, including a section about the limiting factors that slow the flywheel down.

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Advantage Flywheels

Competitive advantage can be represented visually as 1 or more feedback loops. These create the advantage "flywheel" that maintain and grow a moat over time. Think of a big, heavy wheel that takes...

futureblind.com

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

First sketch of an LLM idea maze ala @balajis The main branch I chose was what kind of interface: Chat, Search, Copilot. From there you have areas like assistants, self-help, guides, etc. Where will the highest areas of value be?

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

7/7 h/t to @EricJorgenson for his thorough post on flywheel effects that first got me thinking about this.

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Flywheel Effect: Why Positive Feedback Loops are a Meta-Competitive Advantage

A fascinating adventure through Competitive Advantages, Mental Models, and practical lessons for operators. Also lots of fun pictures here!

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

Request for podcast series: Every episode is one of @patrickc 's Fast entries. Radio-show-style storytelling series with interviews, narration, good sound production. Some episodes could compare the fast case with a modern-day slow case

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

Finished the "Arnold" doc last night. Really enjoyed it. One of my biggest takeaways was about the goals he had for each of his "lives". Each goal was: 1. Very ambitious 2. Fit his desires & abilities well 3. Timed right The last one is key. Becoming Mr. Universe is crazy

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

@BrockHBriggs 🙏 Daughter was in NICU for a month! They know what they’re doing in there, you’re in good hands.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

From the archives: Microsoft S-1 from 1986. 1. Raised $42m, diluting existing shareholders by 8.1% 2. Prior year sales were $140m, pre-tax profits $41m

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

4/ This helps emphasize that the most successful moats have multiple flywheels that feed off of each other's momentum. Like Google's tech advantages enabling stronger brand allegiance. Or Coke's marketing-driven brand feeding off of the distributor based network effects.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

@olymasic Great photos. Here’s Bountiful, 1940s

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

Twilio $TWLO flywheels: 1st from a TWLO deck found from @MarceloPLima here , 2nd I drew up last year for an investor letter.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

5/ Using the analogy of a feedback loop helps to think of an advantage as a moving, changing system. A system that needs catalysts to get started, and will gain momentum at first but still be slowed by friction over time.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

Mr. Market has been smoking a lot of pot lately.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

Planet Labs $PL is now trading at market cap of ~$1.3B. Given their likely dominance of earth observation in coming decade, this seems... low. Market and margins will continue to grow.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

Proud to announce that Mashgin is profitable & we’ve raised a Series B of $62M from NEA and other great investors. We’re currently scaling to tens of thousands of locations worldwide, including C-stores stores across North America & Europe.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

This is going to be a LONG thread on how I think about active investing. They say all good investing is value investing. This is true in the sense that you're buying into a situation where the sellers are underpricing potential outcome. But…

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

Bill Ackman gets it.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

9 months

I'd bet if we put advanced computer vision at every major traffic light, you'd get major non-linear improvements: * Drastically reduced commute times * Less emissions * Many lives saved, indirectly (less traffic overall) & directly (warn when someone about to run red) Cheaper,

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

1/ I've been revisiting the concept of "platforms" lately and their significance in tech stacks. What does a having a platform really mean? Here are some thoughts & resources 👇

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

Just finished the book "Organizing Genius", which I believe was a recommend from @patrickc . Authors recount & compare "Great Groups" like PARC, Disney, Manhattan Project, Skunkworks, etc. Thread 👇

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Waiting on the man to speak. Charlie Munger is always a treat. #djco

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

Just finished “The Fish That Ate The Whale”. How has this not already been turned into a mini series on Netflix!? Such an amazing story and cast of characters. CC @EricJorgenson @david_perell

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

@MarceloPLima Surprising that they'd openly brag about low productivity "we can do much less than the tech giants with way more engineers"

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

Maybe... this will lead to new ways to test knowledge better than essay writing 🤞

@mckaywrigley

Mckay Wrigley

4 years

Nobody tell students that GPT-3 can write amazing essays for them and get them automatic A’s.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

From 1 of my experiments with generative neural nets, this time basic style transfer (tweaking params of an open source repo). Goal was to emulate style of WSJ portrait drawings -- result turned out not too bad:

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

@elidourado * Universal living modules, capable of sustaining life in any circumstance (underground, ocean, arctic, space) * Permanent World's Fair revival * Interactive map of time/space w everything we know of that's ever happened * Programmable GE trees to grow & maintain infrastructure

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Favorite books on distribution: Marketing High Technology Diffusion of Innovations Zero to One

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@maxolson

Max Olson

7 months

Check it out 👉 The idea came about when doing a bit of "customer development" with some folks at Berkshire HQ. Turns out they wanted a good way to find things in the letters! My book originally did this job for them, now with LLMs there's a better way.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

Really interested to keep an eye on this. Not just generative ai in particular, but a company that utilizes *all* the latest tech (like Pixar did) to tell amazing stories.

@_akhaliq

AK

2 years

Who will be the Pixar of generative ai?

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@maxolson

Max Olson

9 months

To the moon 🚀🌝 Excited to dig into some wisdom from @balajis from my friend @EricJorgenson !

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

Ok here's a thread of some modern Disney characters. I'll start with my man @WarrenBuffett (sorry no Munger, the model just couldn't get him right)

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

@CJHandmer You think this is amenable to huge neural net similar to protein folding model?

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

We need a new World’s Fair: a physical mecca showcasing progress and an inspiring vision of the future. 🧵 below on *why*

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

3/ Here's a few examples of stack trees from the tech industry, although they can be drawn out for products *any* industry. #AMZN #NVDA #TWLO

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

I created a vector database of all my Readwise highlights using OpenAI’s embeddings API. It's an amazing way to semantically search anything I've highlighted in the past. I can also look at "similar" quotes that may not even have any overlapping works, but similar concepts.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

Always forget how much leverage Buffett had Berkshire in the early years. Over 2-to-1 for much of the 70s, with >100% of equity in stocks for 5 years up to 1983. Went down again & peaked again in 1992 at 129%(!) equity.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

@hnshah Zendesk. Really unintuitive design and terrible login system.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

Grateful today for our new baby girl, born 7 weeks early but healthy and already surprising everyone with her strength! And thankful to mom who she got it from 😊

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

🤯 Watch this demo + read the logs as it goes. Multiple GPT4 agents in a recursive loop to solve a problem. This is what I mean by "the existing models are all we need". When these patterns start to get productized... watch out.

@SigGravitas

Toran Bruce Richards

1 year

Massive Update for Auto-GPT: Code Execution! 🤖💻 Auto-GPT is now able to write it's own code using #gpt4 and execute python scripts! This allows it to recursively debug, develop and self-improve... 🤯 👇

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

@EricJorgenson @delk Eric in 2 months

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Seinfeld-The Shower Head - video Dailymotion

Watch Seinfeld-The Shower Head - limeeneem on Dailymotion

www.dailymotion.com

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

Obvious application of generative agents is games & other sims. Non-obvious: These ephemeral "worlds" may be spun-up on command w/ different characters to solve specific problems, similar to getting diverse inputs from people IRL. May produce better output then 1 big LLM chain.

@hwchase17

Harrison Chase

1 year

🤖Generative Agents🤖 Last week, Park et all released “Generative Agents”, a paper simulating interactions between tens of agents We gave it a close read, and implemented one of the novel components it introduced: a long-term, reflection-based memory system 🧵

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

Optimism time! Starting a thread on all the major innovation breakthroughs and milestones that happened in 2020. I'll add to the thread over the next few days ⬇️

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

I'm not the best investor in my family. That honor goes to my grandma, who died in November at the age of 100. In 1942 she spent one of 1st paychecks to buy ~$40 of shares in a local railroad in Virginia. After M&A over decades it became $NSC. 80 year CAGR = ~11% before divs

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

🌎 Inspired by @pmarca 's rec of "Whole Earth Discipline" here are some highlights on my notes on @stewarts book. See link full post at end of thread 👇 1/n

@pmarca

Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

4 years

by @stewartbrand on why even environmentalists should be pro building, pro cities, pro nuclear, and pro genetic engineering.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

10 months

Fun prompt. I’d love posters like this that detail how things are *actually* constructed.

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@generatorman_ai

generatorman

@generatorman_ai

10 months

ok I'm addicted to this Bing DALLE-3 prompt: ikea instruction schematics for assembling X, detailed high resolution scan Do you have any cool ideas?

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@maxolson

Max Olson

7 years

Best product strategy tip: Build a product for 1 customer, then 10, then 100, and so on. This is *very* important. Don't think about the next stage until the customers in current stage love you.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Another way to think of machine learning vs. deep learning vs. general intelligence (From “The Model Thinker”)

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@maxolson

Max Olson

7 years

I've read all 800+ pages of #BRK letters many times, but somehow @WarrenBuffett always ends up teaching me something new every letter.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

8 months

@david_perell Man I need to get out of AI world. Thought this was an AI safety tweet until I finished the whole thing.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

7/7 I wrote this up in a more detailed post here, including a short case study using food delivery apps as the tech in focus.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

Ahead of the annual letter tomorrow, here's a thread with a few interesting #brk stats I learned from making this data visualization 👇 (all of the numbers apply only to the 50 year data from 1965 through 2014)

@explorists

Explorist

3 years

The new larger-format, print-on-demand version of the Berkshire Wall Print is now available. This uses thicker, higher quality paper. You can also purchase a pre-framed version or frame the print yourself.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

Amazing that in 40 years, through multiple new tech waves and platform transitions, the dominant technology companies are still: Apple and Microsoft Both founded in the late 1970s by hackers in their early 20s. And seems like they'll continue to dominate for next 10 years.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Peter Kaufman: “Where there’s mystery there’s margin.” Operate in areas with little competition.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

Work in spartan, shabby environments ("low road" as Stewart Brand calls them). The right tools are essential, but fancy digs aren't. "The tendency of great things to be accomplished in dreadful spaces should give architects and decorators pause."

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

Finally getting around to this after years on my list. Pretty sleepy read but lots of interesting insights on how society works.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

8 months

Thread: A few of my favorite Charlie Munger quotes

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

I see these anecdotes all the time now, and it’s implied that this is a *California* thing. But really it’s just an SF thing. In the Peninsula and South Bay for example, no one seems to be leaving and there’s crazy demand for houses. Prices up 10% in past 3-5 months.

@michelletandler

Michelle Tandler

@michelletandler

3 years

"I suspect it’s our last year in California. Can’t justify the taxes for lack of safety and no education for our child." Another friend leaving SF 😔

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@maxolson

Max Olson

8 years

"What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.” Warren Buffett

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

Amazing that people think businesses maintain dominance primarily via gov’t enforcement. Similar to other conspiracies, I guess it stems from lack of understanding of how world works... easier to point to 1 person/entity to blame.

@existentialcoms

Existential Comics (find me on bluesky)

@existentialcoms

5 years

Bill Gates made his money by extinguishing free software and forcing us to pay him a tax just to turn our computers on. This was only possible because the State was ready to violently enforce his "intellectual property". He didn't created a computer revolution, he destroyed one.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

8 months

Legend. RIP Charlie... Such a unique thinker I don't think we'll see anyone close in a long time.

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@TheCharlieton

The Charlieton

8 months

CNBC reports Charlie Munger has died

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

Many companies have successfully applied this, but Amazon was the only one that turned it into a trillion $ business.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

@TurnerNovak He’s also very dyslexic and from a mutual friend I know he doesn’t read books or much financial info as a result. Shows the upside to relentless focus and grit.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

@Ben_Reinhardt Just read & enjoyed your post on difference between ARPA projects vs FROs. I’m curious your thoughts on where each falls in this framework?

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Thread: Just finished 2 books on the history of Polaroid 🌈. A remarkable tech company with enormous success in consumer & industrial applications for decades. Also remarkable how much Apple was influenced by Polaroid.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Scale magnitudes of megaprojects: $100b+ 🛣 Interstate highway system ($500b) 🚀 Apollo program ($200b) 🛰 International space station ($150b) . . .

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

@WilliamAEden Agree with a lot of this, although I think many areas are much more likely to accept 99% accuracy (or lower) than you say. Alternative is high priced humans that also have <1 accuracy. My experience is in AI self-checkout. We haven’t seen much difficulty convincing <1 is ok.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Ready for the #brk2018 meeting with friends @TheCharlieton @mishra_vishal

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Thread: Marc Andreessen @pmarca tweetstorm from 2015-02-16 on how to expand the amount of startup founders: [RE-POST] 1/ More Montessori & Montessori-style, free-form, and/or project-based K-8 public & private schools.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

@patrick_oshag Love this thread! My submissions:

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

Damn this is a beautiful plane. This angle really makes it clear it's really just a cockpit attached to 2 enormous jet engines. And no weapons needed if you can just outrun any missile or bullet!

@boomaero

Boom Supersonic

3 years

Q2. What was the mission of the SR-71 Blackbird? Another great question for @museumofflight Senior Curator Matthew Burchette for our #MuseumMonday #TwitterChat .

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Yeah, I'd say he was pretty wrong. For an alternative view from ~5 yrs ago, see charlie479's view on $AMZN here:

@maxolson

Max Olson

12 years

Greenwald couldn't be more wrong about $AMZN in this interview: http://t.co/q6htgTNV he should read his own book...

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

@gammatrader09 @wolfejosh The numbers don’t add up for this. These are not huge positions for Berkshire. All their airline holdings combined were only 2% of book value at end of 2019, even less now. If all went to 0 it still wouldn’t outweigh a huge deal that works out.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

Glad to see companies embracing the advantage flywheel concept! It's such a simple way to quickly understand what drives growth. See

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

Prediction: Buffett/Berkshire will take a big position in $AMZN

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

10/ The generalization of the model is the real killer here. The SAME model can output customer service chats, music/movie recs, legal docs, summaries of sporting events, poetry, code functions, and complex descriptions from simple text prompts.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

12/ For a bunch of amazing examples of what people are doing with this, check out this thread.

@xuenay

Kaj Sotala

4 years

I keep seeing all kinds of crazy reports about people's experiences with GPT-3, so I figured that I'd collect a thread of them.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

@farnamstreet "There's no time to lose," I heard her say. Catch your dreams before they slip away. Dying all the time, Lose your dreams and you will lose your mind... Ain't life unkind? -- Rolling Stones

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@maxolson

Max Olson

7 years

Why hasn't Uber/Lyft implemented "mileage" loyalty program? People too loyal already? Seems like it would help increase switching cost...

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

Interesting episode. Very similar to the premise of John Kay's book "Obliquity" -- the indirect route is often the best, especially for higher-level, more complex goals. See clips from a post I wrote on this a few yrs ago:

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@patrick_oshag

Patrick OShaughnessy

2 years

My conversation with @kenneth0stanley about why you shouldn’t pursue big hairy audacious goals I hope this stirs up some controversy b/c the implications of the concept are large That he “discovered” this idea via AI research fascinates me Enjoy!

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

Thinking about making a SpaceX equivalent of the BRK "letters to shareholders" book, with chronological, primary-sourced history of the first 10 years (2003-2013), mostly written by @elonmusk . So many amazing lessons on startups and rocket engineering.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

100,000 Americans dead from a global pandemic. Race riots in cities across the country. Astronauts launched past lower earth orbit, inspiring the world. 2020? Nope, 1968.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

3 years

@EricJorgenson I think you’d be proud: Spent a few hours this weekend coding a bot that checks all pharmacies in area for vaccine appointment availability every 30min and texts a family member if there is. 🔼🔼🚲🚲 (are these good emojis for leverage??)

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

Brick Block by @OskSta

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@maxolson

Max Olson

2 years

The @JeffBezos ones were pretty good. I guess he just has a Disney looking face

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@maxolson

Max Olson

7 months

I’m curious what @andy_matuschak thinks about the concept. Thank you to early beta testers @TheCharlieton , @EricJorgenson , and @baldridgecpa "bringing AI to Berkshire" one step at a time!

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

Amazing all the negative responses to this thread, many seemingly from doctors. “But false positives!!!” Yeah no shit, so you factor that in and get better over time. More data can lead to erroneous conclusions but fixing that by not collecting at all is laughable.

@awilkinson

Andrew Wilkinson

5 years

On Monday I went to @prenuvo for a full-body MRI. The idea is to catch diseases like cancer early, when they are still treatable. Wild numbers: out of 1,000 people scanned, 44 will have cancer, often in a treatable stage. Worth doing.

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@maxolson

Max Olson

1 year

People with bigger twitter reputations to keep 😄 @EricJorgenson @TheCharlieton

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

@TaylorPearsonMe “The Art of Strategy” for general game theory and “Prisoners Dilemma” for great stories on game theory in history (nuclear weapons, Cold War etc.)

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@maxolson

Max Olson

5 years

7/ What are examples of platforms that emerged pre-computing? My list: 🧭 Silk Road trade route 🛤 Railroads 🔌 Electric utility grid ✉️ Rural mail delivery 🛣 Interstate highway system (cars, trucks, retail) 🚢 Intermodal shipping ☎️ Telecom system 📻 Radio 📺 Over-the-air TV

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@maxolson

Max Olson

6 years

Great interview with Joshua Dahn, the principal of Elon Musk's Ad Astra school, on rethinking K-12 education from 1st principles:

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Joshua Dahn + Future Of Education

During this webinar, I am joined by Josh Dahn, the principal of Ad Astra, to talk about his philosophy for educating the next generation of engineers, entrep...

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@maxolson

Max Olson

4 years

No doubt that if Trump was the CEO of a large co he'd be fired by any reasonable board for similar comments and actions. Exactly the opposite type of leader that Buffett looks for in all his investments.

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