Marcelo P. Lima @MarceloPLima Twitter profile

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Marcelo P. Lima

2 years

Would be great if CEOs/CFOs of fast-growing tech companies could articulate a long-term thesis for their stock, publicly, like Elon Musk did in February 2015:

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

In light of yet another WSJ hit piece on @elonmusk , let’s recall what Larry Ellison said about the WSJ back in 2018:

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

People don’t realize it but Elon Musk is our time’s Thomas Edison.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

This blew my mind: The New York Times printed Nazi propaganda that Poland had invaded Germany, and the journalist who wrote this won a Pulitzer Prize for his efforts.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

1 year

I'm told this is the Berkshire internship reading list

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

6 years

Enjoyed this vignette of @elonmusk ’s work ethic at SpaceX. NASA’s chief engineer: “I guarantee you this guy is not going to fail”

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

8 months

@Austen Even crazier: there is zero media coverage of this

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

4 years

Hard to believe Ebay bought PayPal for $1.5 billion in 2002. Market cap today: Ebay: $39 billion Paypal: $295 billion

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

@elonmusk please make bookmarks searchable

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 months

Just rode in my first BYD Dolphin in Brazil. The math for an Uber driver is insane: with his gasoline Toyota Corolla he used to spend R$3,000 per month on gas. Now his home electric bill is R$800. Every week in São Paulo there is one day you can’t drive (“rodízio”) but EVs are

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

$GOOG has spent $163 billion in stock buybacks since Q4 2015 and the share count is exactly the same.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

“The United States has been busy creating lawyers while Japan has been busier creating engineers.” — Akio Morita

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

1 year

Love Larry dissing Snowflake

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Our nuclear regulator: - 2,868 employees - $863m budget - 47 years in operation - LICENSE APPROVALS: ZERO

Eli Dourado

@elidourado

3 years

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission was established in 1975. In the entire history of the agency, no license initially submitted to the NRC has yet begun operations. 🤯

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

In 2016, Carl Icahn said the stock market was going to crash. Buffett was asked about it. His reply:

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Incredible. $AFRM

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

According to Bloomberg, $AMZN now trades for under 12x EV/EBITDA. Mondelez just sold their chewing gum business for 15x EBITDA.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

It should be a national scandal that Biden is emptying out our entire strategic petroleum reserve just so he can inflect gasoline prices to win short-term favor with voters ahead of midterm elections

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Imagine Charlie Munger on Joe Rogan.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Puzzle: the Large Hadron Collider cost $279 million per mile to build. It has 10,000 superconducting magnets, 96 tons of liquid helium for cooling, and is all custom made. New York City's subway costs between $1.5 to $3.5 *billion* per new mile to build 🤯 5-13x more expensive

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

4 years

Square $SQ acquires Cash App customers for $5 and is getting $41 of gross profit per quarter on each customer. That's impressive. Incumbent banks, watch out.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Cost to ship a 40-ft container dropped 52% in the last 12 months. More to go, but good progress. Cost now back to Jan '21 levels.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Record number of biotech stocks trading below cash

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Tesla, which does hard engineering and manufacturing, appears to be more efficient at scaling than the vast majority of software businesses

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

6 years

Larry Ellison’s rant on Tesla and @elonmusk is just awesome

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

“You can build a billion-dollar startup from your computer, but you can’t build a shed in San Francisco without a billion permits.” — @balajis , on the “why” of creating a new state

Balaji

@balajis

3 years

Our physical helplessness is learned. You aren't supposed to even put up a street sign yourself, to build without permission, to help in any way. The physical world is a read-only environment — only the state or those it permits can edit it. Needless to say, it wasn't always so.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

from the book “The Gray Lady Winked”

The Gray Lady Winked: How the New York Times's Misreporting, Distortions and Fabrications Radically...

The Gray Lady Winked: How the New York Times's Misreporting, Distortions and Fabrications Radically Alter History

www.amazon.com

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

9 months

Bill's story about Harvard's Amazon forest investment is wild

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

CNBC reporter in China said the government is blurring the televised audience in the World Cup stadiums because people were questioning why nobody was forced to wear masks. Orwell’s 1984 redaction in real-time.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

9 months

In light of *yet another* WSJ hit piece on @elonmusk , let’s recall what Larry Ellison said about the WSJ back in 2018:

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Coca-Cola stock just hit a 52-week high. 27x next year's earnings (according to Bloomberg) This is a business that struggled to grow its revenues by a mere 9% over the entirety of the last decade or so. High-growth tech is in deep value territory and low-growth, the opposite.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Citi has over 30,000 software engineers. Nuts.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

5 months

Bloomberg has a dividend ex date for $AMZN 👀

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

4 years

Unilever CEO: "Let me be clear. Coronavirus is NOT positive for Unilever on a commercial basis. (Despite growth in consumption of many items.) Only in the US are we seeing this dramatic pantry hoarding. US consumer has bigger house size and more appetite for credit card debt."

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

5 months

@OHare888 You're getting ripped off. Buy the tires yourself and have them delivered to a small shop. Anyone can swap tires.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

I report, you decide: $ADBE - sticky software - 88% gm, 40%+ fcf margin, 30%+ ROIC 23x EV/EBIT, expected top line growth ~13% next few yrs -31% YTD $KO - branded sugar water - 60% gm, 25% fcf margin, 16% ROIC 25x EV/EBIT, expected top line growth ~5% next few yrs +9% YTD

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

7 months

Anyone who is long $GOOG or who works there should watch this starting at 5:55

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

@Guni__gugu Amazing, thanks

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

6 months

@JHL_Express 4. Piss off China

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

If I were Buffett, I'd be buying American tech stocks right now. At current multiples and growth rates, highly likely to earn 15%+ IRRs from here. Not investment advice, but $GOOG is an obvious example.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

North Carolina How it started How it's going

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

“Games are won by players who focus on the playing field – not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays.” — Warren Buffett, 2013 letter to shareholders

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

7 years

A charming email from Jeff Raikes of Microsoft to Buffett, explaining the business and the investment merits, Aug 1997:

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

“People would be so much better off if they didn’t have a stock market in terms of buying businesses.” — Warren Buffett, 91 Echoes something Keynes wrote in 1936, too: that stock market liquidity is a liability for most people since they can’t handle the volatility.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Every $FB call: Zuck: I’m excited Sheryl: This little store in Ireland made 5x ROAS Wehner: Everything is going to suck don’t buy the stock

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Companies I wish were public: Lego Mars Ferrero Depository Trust Corporation Which others?

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Four life-changing books I’ve read that will help you live longer: - Metabolical by @RobertLustigMD - Breath by @MrJamesNestor - Why We Sleep by @sleepdiplomat - Lifespan by @davidasinclair

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Coca-Cola stock is trading at ~25x pre-tax profits, estimated, in 2024 (EV/EBIT). Google (Alphabet) is at ~13x the same metric in 2024, estimated. One of these is growing much faster than the other.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Four years ago today, $FB was trading at 26x trailing free cash flow, and during the following four years sales grew 37%, 27%, 22%, and 37%. And yet... the total return on the stock since then is 8.3%. Investing is hard.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

In 2 minutes, during after hours trading, $TWLO retraced its entire -23% YTD performance, before most humans even had time to read the press release. Markets are insane.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Still confounded by this. $GOOG trades at ~13x EV/EBIT $IBM trades at ~16x EV/EBIT per Bloomberg estimates

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

$SHOP intra-day move of almost 24%. Markets are insane.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

According to Bloomberg, EV/EBIT multiples in 2024E: $GOOG - 13x $MSFT - 18x $AMZN - 21x $COST - 24x

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Hard to believe, but $GOOG trades at a lower EV/EBIT than $IBM

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

If Steve Jobs rose from the dead and got rehired at Apple today, how many days would it take for him to get cancelled, too?

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

I report, you decide. Numbers are 2024 EV/EBIT estimates, and revenue growth in 2022, 2023, 2024 (all from Bloomberg) $KO 23x, 8%, 6%, 6% $IBM 13.5x, 6%, 5%, 4% $GOOG 12.6x, 21%, 15%, 16% The first two are up YTD, the third is down.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

7 years

Apple stock was banned in Massachusetts because the IPO was overvalued...

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Moderna is developing a personalized cancer vaccine. They sample / sequence your cancerous tissue, find targets, manufacture the vaccine and deliver to you in weeks. If this works… 🤯 $MRNA

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

7 months

DOJ lays out the bull case for $AAPL

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

SaaS companies are trading at close to all-time low multiples

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

11 months

Musk’s sons are crazy smart

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

$SNOW expects $10 bn of product revenue in FY '29, with 15% fcf margins. Put that into a DCF, include share count dilution, at 30x FCF you get a 3.9% IRR from the current share price.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

8 months

@DrewPavlou Why did the Bay Area folks fall for this fraud? This person/company should be sued and the $250k returned to the city.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

$GOOG hasn't been this cheap in a while

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

5 months

@BillAckman @CNN @realDonaldTrump Somehow the Democratic Party's "strategy," if we can call it that, is backfiring

End Wokeness

@EndWokeness

5 months

Spontaneous crowd amasses in New York to cheer on Trump after he leaves court. I have never seen anything like this:

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Apple has 147,000 full-time employees. About 1.4% of them didn't like it that Apple hired @antoniogm (2,000 signed a petition for an "investigation" on his views). Apple then turned around and fired him. Why this crazy minority rule? The tail wagging the dog? Spineless mgmt?

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

5 years

This right here summarizes military contracting. Military Officer trying out the Oculus Rift: MO: Amazing, how much does it cost? OR: 300 MO: Any chance you could do it for only $250,000 OR: Sorry I meant just $300 MO: 🤯

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

8 months

It’s hilariously ironic how nearly every moat evaluation in this book is dead wrong

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 months

@Noahpinion When was the last time a miracle pill worked as intended without adverse effects after many years of use?

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

4 months

$ARM appears to be trading at just 55x sales, 111x earnings, 163x FCF, and 99x EBIT

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

If Matt Levine left Bloomberg and did his own Substack he could probably 5x his income. Why hasn’t he?

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Tesla's insane D1 (Dojo) chip has 2x the I/O bandwidth of state-of-the-art network chips. Any other "car makers" building something similar?

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

imagine getting swindled by your law school professor's son

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

10 months

I’ve read Munger’s speeches, read his bio, attended many meetings in Omaha, etc., and was shocked to see this in a recent interview. How can someone so successful feel like he screwed up because he could have been even richer? 🤔

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

4 years

Larry Ellison pays Bill Gates the best compliment: “Most people hate to admit they’re wrong, but it didn’t bother Bill one bit. All he cared about was *what* was right, not *who* was right. That’s what makes Bill very, very dangerous.”

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

4 years

Twenty-five years ago, Andy Grove saw a chart by Clay Christensen showing how his company would die. He just didn't know it yet. Apple's announcement yesterday was the last nail on that coffin. Excellent piece from @jamesallworth :

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

4 years

Bull case for $SQ in two pictures:

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

4 years

The cult of homeownership makes no sense. Most people would be better off renting and investing the would-be equity payment and monthly carrying costs (insurance, principal and interest, taxes, maintenance) in index funds. They’d be much wealthier 20-30 years later.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

6 years

"Big tech is overvalued"

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

1 year

Analyst Sacconaghi: When will Ford make EVs at the same cost as ICE? Ford CEO Farley: 2030-2035 Sacconaghi: Is that a structural cost advantage that Tesla is going to enjoy for a while? Farley: Yes

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Another fun completely unrelated comparison: $KO EV/EBIT for next 4 quarters 24.4x $TSLA EV/EBIT 22.6x Coke expected to grow EBIT 3.3% next year, 16% ROIC est LTM Tesla expected to grow EBIT 45% next year, 28% ROIC est LTM All per Bloomberg

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

5 years

These podcast episodes/book are literal life savers: sleep! much more important than I ever imagined. Pt 1: Pt 2: Pt 3: Book: Why We Sleep: Unlocking the Power of Sleep and Dreams

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

$ROKU back to late 2017 in terms of price / gross profits. It's a much stronger and better business today than it was back then.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Poster child for why this is mindless sector rotation: $KO (Coca-Cola) '22 rev growth est: 6%, 21x EBITDA $FB: 19%, 12.5x EBITDA

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

This is the longest ongoing sector rotation in recent history. Today:

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 months

@amir @scotthsutw1 Just about everything, unfortunately

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

. @balajis said, years ago, that the 21st century would see the war between the network and the state. It's happening faster than (I) expected. Biden has a new rule that if enacted would allow seizure of crypto without criminal charges. Obviously this is anti-constitutional?

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

"If you weren’t aggressive enough and buying on the way down and having some agony at the bottom, then you weren’t living a proper investment life." -- Charlie Munger

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Legacy payments stocks are down on the $SQ acquisition of Afterpay (V, MA, FIS, FISV, GPN). Why? Afterpay is all about disintermediating banks and credit card networks. It's creating an entire new closed-loop network between merchants and consumers, with SQ/APT in the middle.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

*BREAKING: DIMON ON $SQ ACQUISITION OF AFTERPAY: SQUARE CONTINUES TO DO ALL THE STUFF WE COULD HAVE DONE THAT WE DIDN'T DO - SOURCES

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

6 years

JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon did a commercial for @Square at the investor day yesterday:

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

I made a chart showing the devastation to Facebook's business wrought by the Cambridge Analytica episode, the delete Facebook movement, the various media panics, big brand ad boycott, EU regulations and Covid-19. $FB

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

1 year

Still mind blowing to me that Elon fired 75% of Twitter’s staff and increased product velocity a ton, with many new features in what had been a static product. Previous Twitter management was truly horrible.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 months

Pandemic-era excess savings are gone, and then some

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

$BABA has basically gone nowhere in years. Investing is hard.

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 years

Great interview with tech startup CEO (and Miami Mayor) @FrancisSuarez 🧵:

Opinion | Why Is So Much Money Moving to Miami? (Published 2021)

The city might be sinking, but Mayor Francis Suarez is still luring tech bros there.

www.nytimes.com

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

2 years

Lee Cooperman on CNBC: “You can buy a class company like Google today at less than 17x next year’s earnings. Relative to interest rates, that’s cheap.” $GOOG

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

6 months

Lina Khan and her European cronies put a bunch of people out of a job for no good reason

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

5 years

What is the best book on SALES you’ve ever read? (How to sell, how to increase sales, how to hire/compensate salespeople, etc?)

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

1 year

Ford CEO: "The magic of Tesla is because they were capital constrained, they didn't have the money, they did things that we are too lazy to do."

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

1 year

This is by Todd Combs in the latest edition of Security Analysis. I wonder how he did this since the formula for this calculation doesn't work if growth rate > discount rate?

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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

1 year

At what point does $GOOG just admit that the "Other Bets" idea doesn't work?

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