Peter Inglesby @inglesp Twitter profile

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Peter Inglesby

21 days

Morning all -- and hello new followers! There are now twelve (and counting?) different models making seat-by-seat predictions for next Thursday's election, and while they all indicate a Labour landslide, there's a lot of disagreement in the details.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

20 days

An anonymous "student with a love of politics" has just shared this splendid spreadsheet packed with analysis -- bookmarked for Thursday night:

General Election 2024 Spreadsheet

Master Sheet Use the "Filter View" button on the top left to sort, Thanks to Peter Inglesby for the pollster data scraping and inspiration: https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/,Constituency: Arranged by...

docs.google.com

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

Hello everyone, less than 48 hours until the polls open... This morning I've added a "coefficient of correlation" to the aggregator, to indicate how much the models agree or disagree in each seat:

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

2 months

Fellow nerds: I built a thing to compare general election predictions from different constituency models (Britain Predicts, Electoral Calculus, Economist, FT)

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

18 days

Late lunchtime update: I've updated the tracker with all the latest predictions, including a new entry from @JLPartnersPolls

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

This is what happens when your little project gets mentioned in the Guardian on election night (The y-axis is visits per minute)

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

21 days

So, while there are only 11 constituencies where all models agree the Conservatives will win, there are 57 where at least nine models predict they will. (cc @zoenora6 )

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

16 days

To my bafflement, and my family's amusement, I've been invited to talk about election predictions (and to share my own?!) with @rosiewright99 on Times Radio at 5.45 tomorrow morning...

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

21 days

And while there are 24 constituencies with at least one prediction of Reform winning, there are only 4 where three models agree.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

Lunchtime update: a couple of new little features to play with this evening... Firstly, a new page that breaks seats down by predicted margin -- look how many Conservative seats are predicted to be held by less than 5%

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

16 days

Just a quick update this morning: to reflect the thin margins of many of the predictions, I've made a tweak to the colours on the site. For instance, here are all the seats where there's a prediction of the Greens winning tomorrow:

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

21 days

@colinrtalbot Right! I've got plans to evaluate the predictions, based not just on who got the most seats right, but on who was best able to model trends across the country. Watch this space!

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

21 days

I've just pushed an update to my aggregator of election predictions that lets you find all the constituencies where at least N models agree.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

7 years

Users of open source: why not drop a line to a library maintainer to tell them that you're using the library and what you're using it for?

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

16 days

Now on the site: More in Common have always been the MRP that's given the Tories the biggest vote share, and even they are now only predicting 126 seats

Luke Tryl

@LukeTryl

16 days

🏁 Our final @moreincommon_ @TheNewsAgents MRP projects a Labour majority of 210 & worst defeat in Tory Party history 🔴LAB 430 (+228) 🔵CON 126 (-239) 🟠LD 52 (+41) 🟡SNP 16 (-32) 🟣REF UK 2 (+2) 🟢GRN 1 (-) 🟢 PLAID 2 (-2) ⚪️ OTH 2 (+2) N 13,556 | 24/6 to 1/7

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

16 days

Data now on the aggregator: I'm still amused that the FT quote me as the source for their own data...

Martin Stabe

@martinstabe

16 days

Applied to the @ftdata #GE2024 projection model, this gives a result of: 🌹Labour - 447 🌳 Conservative - 98 🔶 Lib Dem - 63 ➡️ Reform - 1 🟢 Green - 1

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

7 years

In which I look back on #pyconuk and say "thank you" to everyone who made it happen: .

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

21 days

Have a play, and let me know if you find anything interesting!

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

7 years

Delighted and honoured to have been elected a Fellow of the Python Software Foundation!

Python Software Foundation

@ThePSF

7 years

Python Software Foundation Fellow Members for Q3 2017

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

18 days

Hello everyone, less than three days until the polls open... This morning I've added a new feature to my site that aggregates seat-by-seat predictions: you can now rank constituencies by the vote share or majority for each party

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

Time for a second beer!

Roger W Turner 🕷️

@RogerWTurner

15 days

@inglesp You're now reporting faster than the Grauniad.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

23 days

It's getting rather crowded

Owen Winter

@OwenWntr

23 days

🦕 Here is our @TheEconomist / @wethinkpolling MRP! And @JamesFransham has updated our Britain prediction model methodology. This is how we're thinking about the election (with maps + charts!) 🧵

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

7 years

I won't pretend that organising #PyConUK is stress-free...

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

Right, back from the pub, and everyone's in a better mood than last time:

Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

19 days

Was in a pub last election night with lots of Labour activists who'd spent the day only knocking on doors of probable voters, and there was genuine shock when the exit poll was announced at 10pm

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

system working -- need a few more results to come in before I can open that second beer though

AlinaG 🌹🇬🇧🇫🇷

@ramshackle78

15 days

@inglesp so the system working!!

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

4 years

The headline is not the best part of this article:

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

16 days

Also: I'm expecting several more final predictions to be released today, and will do my best to get them onto the site as quickly as I can, around family and work commitments.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

7 years

Goodbye Cardiff, goodbye #PyConUK . Thanks everybody for a wonderful few days! Proper thanks to follow; I'm going offline for 24 hours.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

I don't really know what's going on in Exmouth and Exeter East, but it's the only seat where four different parties are predicted to win -- anyone got any local knowledge to share?

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

13 days

Sitting in the back row at my parents' choral society summer concert and am not the only one who's not been paying full attention

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

The seats with the greatest disagreement are all ones with local factors that are hard to model:

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

26 days

I've added a page of tactical voting recommendations to the aggregator:

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

20 days

Walking around Stroud's canals today we saw more posters for the UK Hamster Party than for the Tories!

James Austin

@JamesDAustin

20 days

As a anecdote have driven around Somerset and rural Glos the last day or so, passing through 5 marginals and.... I've not seen a Tory sign. Loads of Green/Lab and, in particular, Lib ones. But not one Tory. Consituencies: Forest of Dean, North Somerset, Wells, Hanham, Weston

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

6 years

I'm beginning to get really excited about #PyConUK . This year's organisers are doing a cracking job.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

Actually as much as this is a pain in the arse after coming in from the pub: hats off to Survation for acknowledging the limits of their model like this

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

9 years

If you're a UK-based #Python user who's never been to @PyConUK , I'd love to hear what would encourage you to come to this year's conference.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

21 days

I've just pulled in the latest data from several sources, including tonight's Survation MRP and the latest Electoral Calculus data, which seems to have calmed down a bit -- they're no longer claiming North Cotswolds for Reform...

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

18 days

No, and Exmouth and Exeter East is the only one with four

Misha Pemberthy

@MishaPemberthy

18 days

@inglesp @JLPartnersPolls Any constituencies with more than 4 different predicted winners?

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

I haven't added this to the site yet, because they've not given a prediction for North Shropshire, and that breaks some assumptions in my code

Survation.

@Survation

17 days

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 Labour on Course to Win 484 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3 34,558 interviews

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

14 days

Is it just my screen (or my eyes?) or is Cleverly's rosette a Dairy Milk purple?

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

6 years

Excited to be running a coding competition at #PyConUK this September. It should be accessible and fun for new programmers, and a bit of a challenge for those with more experience.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

OK, first result up:

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

7 years

Scrolling through the #pyconuk tweets, grinning like a loon.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

4 years

The Datalab is hiring engineers: Our work is important and interesting, and has a real impact. We get stuff done. Please spread the word, and let me know if you have any questions.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

Lib Dems already have more seats than last time around

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

6 years

Come and work with me!

Ben Goldacre

@bengoldacre

6 years

WE ARE HIRING We need a DJANGO developer for @EBMDataLab We are fun, our outputs are awesome and change the world. We make and many more similar in pipeline. TELL YOUR FRIENDS. E: hello @ebmdatalab .net

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

7 years

...but spending the weekend before the conference getting stuff done with people you like and respect is really enjoyable.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

At the other end of the spectrum, the models are all in agreement that Labour are going to do well in the North West...

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

10 years

Python programmers: stop what you're doing and watch @brandon_rhodes show you how you ought to be doing it:

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

4 years

Proud to have played a small part in this:

The Economist

@TheEconomist

4 years

In normal circumstances, obtaining permission to look at sensitive health data would take months or years. A new team has gone from idea to publication in just 42 days

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

22 days

Am not a commentator, but I would honestly be shocked to see Reform win next door in North Cotswolds

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

You can see the still-undeclared seats here:

James Ball

@jamesrbuk

15 days

We've past the halfway point on results – 351 down, 299 to go.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

14 days

There's still one seat outstanding, and it's a fitting one -- I wrote much of the code that supports interrogating the data in a tent on Skye only three weeks ago

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

4 years

My first company made firewalls for telecom systems. I was a load tester. I kicked off a long-running load test and went off to get married. Returned from honeymoon to discover that I'd routed all traffic through company's own corporate firewall. Oops.

not here; find me elsewhere.

@ElleArmageddon

4 years

This is your unscheduled reminder that telling early-in-career engineers stories of times you messed something up real bad is a good way to help them combat their own impostor syndrome.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

16 days

Also now up:

James Kanagasooriam

@JamesKanag

16 days

🚨Final MRP estimates from @focaldataHQ is for a 238 seat Labour majority with Labour on 444 seats, Conservatives on 108 seats, Liberal Democrats on 57 seats, SNP on 15, Reform on 2 seats

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

6 years

I'm also going to be co-ordinating the John Pinner Award, where we'll recognise contributions to the UK Python Community in memory of John, who founded PyCon UK. More details on this very soon.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

22 days

Oh no, I missed one. Now on the site:

Dan Grey

@dan_grey

22 days

@JohnRentoul @inglesp I still think @ElectionMapsUK 's nowcast should be in there @inglesp !

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

22 days

As it happens I hope to add a "coefficient of agreement" to the table this evening, all being well

Owen Winter

@OwenWntr

22 days

Poking around the data from @inglesp 's excellent election prediction aggregation. The seats where prediction models disagree most: 1. Ashfield 2. Islington North 3. Waveney Valley 4. North Shropshire 5. Cambridge

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

18 days

@JonnElledge Down to 13 (JLP had NE Hampshire as a tie which I was showing incorrectly), and by one measure, Brentwood and Ongar is the most comfortable -- it's got the highest smallest predicted Tory majority of 3.7%, if that makes any sense

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

8 years

It's not a coincidence that I'm retweeting this after midnight...

Programming Wisdom

@CodeWisdom

8 years

"Give someone a program, you frustrate them for a day; teach them how to program, you frustrate them for a lifetime." - David Leinweber

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

14 days

@thetyronwilson Second safest, after... Richmond!

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

19 days

Was in a pub last election night with lots of Labour activists who'd spent the day only knocking on doors of probable voters, and there was genuine shock when the exit poll was announced at 10pm

Rob Ford

@robfordmancs

19 days

If you watch back the 1997 election night broadcast you will see much discussion that looks exactly like this - “feeling on the doorstep much more positive than the polls.” Then the results come.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

18 days

Excellent and clear and well two minutes

Robert Cuffe

@robertcuffe

18 days

Beware people brandishing data they say "proves" only we can win here.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

5 years

I made this!

OpenPrescribing

@openprescribing

5 years

Using a combination of @SlackHQ , an RSS feed from @PSNCNews and our very own ebmbot (built by @EBMDataLab ) we can get personalised price concession alerts to you within 7 minutes - if we ask ebmbot nicely. Sign up for yours at

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

send chocolate

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

16 days

But for now...

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

@Dylan_Difford

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

North Shropshire had the massive swing to the LDs in the 2021 by-election; North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley are both Green target seats; Ashfield had a strong independent candidate in 2019 and has Lee Anderson's defection to Reform; and Islington North has Corbyn

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

6 years

I'm back from a short post- #PyConUK holiday, and here are some highlights (in no particular order)...

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

4 years

It's been a lot of fun watching this all come together

Ben Goldacre

@bengoldacre

4 years

OUR NEW PAPER. Factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 MILLION adult NHS patients. Largest study of its kind ever, anywhere. The power of UK / NHS data, realised.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

16 days

An important point in a good thread from somebody who knows a thing or two about MRPs

Chris Hopkins

@ChrisHopkins92

16 days

However, the increase in no. of MRPs makes me a bit uncomfortable, because they’re so open to misinterpretation (as is basically any form of modelling). Differences in vote share by fractions of % point could make a big diff to seat outcomes, as many pollsters have already said.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

Plausible explanation for high disagreement about Exmouth and Exeter East

JWExTheSpa

@SpaJw

17 days

@inglesp @fascinatorfun They cannot agree a model for the Claire Wright supporters from the East Devon part of the constituency. She polled very highly in 2019. Her supporters are almost certainly going to be LD/Labour leaning.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

14 days

Evening all! I've been away from my desk for the day and so I've only just fixed a couple of bugs with how I was showing the results: two seats were incorrectly marked as being won by "oth" candidates, and three close races were marked as ties. Thanks to all who let me know!

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

1 month

@Samfr Have added to the aggregator:

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

2 years

Drumbeat of mortality: the first release of Python (20th February, 1991) was as close to the date that the first COBOL spec was approved (8th January 1960) as the present day...

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

7 years

I've just received an email from a user of a little HTTP crawling library I wrote, and it's given me the warm fuzzies.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

6 years

And the socks! These were @ntoll 's genius idea.

Harry Percival @[email protected]

@hjwp

6 years

@PyConUK someone just bought a pair of pycon uk swag socks at the pyladies auction for $400. that is all.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

7 years

For the morning crowd, looking back on #pyconuk :

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

18 days

@JonnElledge Hah, yes. Quite a bit of disagreement between different models though. See this from a couple of days ago:

Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

21 days

So, while there are only 11 constituencies where all models agree the Conservatives will win, there are 57 where at least nine models predict they will. (cc @zoenora6 )

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

6 years

Hugs to whoever's trying to keep @MailChimp up and running tonight #gdpr

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

5 years

pyenv uninstall -f 2.7.13

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

21 days

I've not got around to presenting trends on my site but @sib313 has been pulling in my data and has some some pretty charts where you can see changes in predictions over time

𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic

@sib313

22 days

Looks like the latest prediction from the Economist has decided to join the pack on its prediction of conservative seats: ...

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

As always, please do let me know if you've got any questions or suggestions!

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

22 days

This is now on the aggregator:

Electoral Calculus

@ElectCalculus

23 days

🚨New MRP poll with @FindoutnowUK for @DailyMirror and @GBNEWS shows #Conservatives behind the #LibDems in seats: CON: 60 LAB: 450 LIB: 71 REF: 18 GRN: 4 SNP: 24 PC: 4 OTH: 1 NI: 18 Details at:

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

5 years

Come work with me...

Ben Goldacre

@bengoldacre

5 years

WE ARE HIRING AGAIN. We're building openpathology and more features on openprescribing, so we need another RESEARCHER, and another SOFTWARE ENGINEER. We produce fabulous tools, services, papers, and policy shouts. Fun team, epic mission. JOIN US.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

6 years

I'm looking forward to speaking at @djugl on 25/10. I'll be talking about mental models and leaky abstractions, and about how if we are to get the most out of the Djano ORM, we need to understand what's going on under the surface. Londoners: see you there?

DJUGL

@djugl

6 years

***SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT*** I am delighted to announce that Peter Inglesby (aka @inglesp ) will be one of four speakers at #DJUGL10 with his talk on Leaky Abstractions and the Django ORM. Tickets are still available here:

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

7 years

@glitch humility.png

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

20 days

And a couple of houses on our road who had Green signs in their garden for the locals in May now have Labour signs up

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

1 month

Hello world, I've been away from the internet for a week, climbing and dodging the rain on Skye. Many thanks to @themadwort for keeping the election prediction aggregator updated.

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

17 days

And the data's now up, with added question marks

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

Also, you can now show the vote share and majority of the predicted winner (rather than the vote share and majority of a given party) -- click on the column heading to sort

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

For comparison in 2019 (with notional figures) no candidate won with less than 31%

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

15 days

Of the 123 seats (outside NI) left to declare, only 4 have any models predicting Reform winning (and I'm still baffled by North Cotswolds on this list)

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

8 years

Throwing toy eels is harder than you might think... Had a great day at the #elyeelfestival .

Visit Ely

@visitely

8 years

The last throw of the championship of 2016. An amazing #elyeelfestival and it continues tomorrow!

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

2 years

@Roxytonin @rkalyes1 Congratulations Dr Robert!

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

26 days

I've got recommendations from GetVoting (by @BestForBritain ), StopTheTories (from @MVTFWD ), and (from @tactical2024 )

Look up the tactical vote in your constituency

tactical.vote | General Election 2024

tactical.vote

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

18 days

I'll follow this up with a write-up evaluating how the models performed, and whether there's anything we can learn from the proliferation of predictions

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp

9 years

@bmispelon Don't ask questions that you're not going to use the answer for!

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Peter Inglesby

@inglesp