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@focaldataHQ

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Joined June 2017
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
🚨We've run a fresh poll to find out if the results we saw in our poll 2 weeks ago (e.g. big Lab lead) were caused by strong (but temporary) public anger in response to the govt. staff party revelations, or whether they indicated a more permanent shift. It looks like the latter.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
First, current vote intention: CON🔵 34% LAB🔴41% LD🟠9% GRN🟢4% SNP🟡4% OTHER 6% Essentially no chg in Lab/Con vote share since our Dec 9 poll (in the heat of partygate), suggesting the stark Lab lead wasn't a flash in the pan. The Tories seem to have suffered lasting damage.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Starmer prevails across the board now More trustworthy Starmer 44% (+10 vs. Apr) J'son 24% (-14) Better represents ppl like me Starmer 42% (+7) J'son 29% (-11) Better equipped for tough decisions Starmer 39% (+7) J'son 34% (-7) More competent Starmer 45% (+11) J'son 28% (-11)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
The picture gets even bleaker for Johnson wrt who people think would make the best PM. Starmer is now AHEAD - the first time we've seen this in our polling Starmer 37% Johnson 34% Don't know 28% Johnson was 1 point up in our Dec 9 poll
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 months
💥 EXCLUSIVE: Our first MRP poll of the campaign suggests Labour are on course for a 250-seat majority. Probabilistic seat counts: Labour: 450 Conservative: 110 Liberal Democrats: 50 SNP: 16 Plaid Cymru: 2 Reform UK: 1 Green: 1 More details:
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 months
📊 NEW: Labour's lead climbs to campaign high. Labour: 43% (+1) Conservative: 21% (-3) Reform UK: 16% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 10% (+1) Green: 5% (-) Fieldwork conducted 14–17 June 2,604 respondents (GB)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
This poll suggests that Johnson is in big trouble. Labour is maintaining its lead, and Starmer is now seen as the best PM. This is critical. If he can build/maintain his lead on this metric, Johnson will find himself coming under extreme pressure.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 months
🚨 Our final MRP poll of the election campaign indicates that Labour are on course for a record-breaking 444 seats. Seat counts Labour: 444 (-6 since last week) Conservative: 108 (-2) Lib Dem: 57 (+7) SNP: 15 (-1) Reform: 2 (+1) Plaid: 2 (-) Green: 1 (-)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
The level of public trust in Boris Johnson has taken an enormous hit. More trustworthy Starmer: 51% (+7) Johnson: 16% (-8) Changes vs. 20-21 Dec Since April 2021, Johnson has dropped by *22 points* on this metric. (3/n)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
First up, vote intention: CON: 33% LAB: 41% LD: 7% GRN: 6% SNP: 5% PC: 1% OTHER: 1% Conservatives down 4 points vs. an internal poll we ran exactly one week ago (2-3 Dec) Staggering stuff.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
🚨Last night, we launched a poll at 8pm to get a snap reaction from the public after what was a remarkable day in British politics. This is the first poll conducted entirely after yesterday's events. Full thread below - all charts taken from our data collection platform. (1/n)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives: CON🔵33% LAB🔴42% LD🟠11% GRN🟢4% SNP🟡3% REFUK 3% PC 1% OTHER 2% (2/n)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
There is now clear daylight between Johnson and Starmer in terms of who the public think would make the best PM. Starmer 40% (+2) Johnson 30% (-4) Don't know 29% (5/n)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Interesting to compare these results to @YouGov 's latest: Starmer 33% Johnson 23% Not sure 40% Refused 4% We think that the main reason for the diff between ours and theirs is that we put more of a squeeze on respondents in our question (e.g. asking "If you had to pick one...")
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Finally, you may remember that around this time last year we ran a bumper 20k MRP poll for @thesundaytimes ... Well, we're going one better this year. We've got a 25k MRP poll in the works. Keep your eyes peeled!👀
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
In the survey, we also presented respondents with a video of Johnson's PMQs apology in full. People were not buying it. Sincere: 24% Not sincere: 68% Accept the apology: 26% Reject the apology: 63% (7/n)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
5 years
For those who find 10pm just too late for your MRP fix, @focaldataHQ is very excited to give our official MRP estimates for #GE2019 Con – 337 seats / 42.0% vote share Lab – 235 / 33.8% SNP – 41 / 3.2% LD – 14 / 13.5% Plaid – 3 / 0.5% Green – 1 / 2.8% Brexit Party – 0 / 3% 1/n
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
We ran a snap poll for @TimesRadio overnight. The findings are pretty damning for Boris Johnson. Full thread below - all charts screen-grabbed from our data collection platform.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
As seen with other polls over the last week or so, around two-thirds of the public think that Johnson should resign. What is particularly interesting is that, even among people who voted Conservative in 2019, more think he should resign (46%) than not (43%) - shown below. (6/n)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
🚨Throughout December - on behalf of @thesundaytimes - we've been polling thousands of people (25,000 in total!) and have built an MRP model to give a constituency-by-constituency breakdown for how the country would vote if an election were held today. The results are in.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Johnson's approval ratings continue to plummet. Johnson Disapprove: 65% (+6) Approve: 20% (-5) Starmer Disapprove: 35% (+1) Approve: 29% (+3) (4/n)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
5 months
We have completed our deep dive into this month's local election results and found that Labour's vote distribution has become remarkably efficient in recent years. More analysis to come in next week's Bi_Focal blog. Sign up here:
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
The polling results seen in December seemed to mark rock-bottom for Johnson. This poll suggests this is far from the case. The level of public trust in Johnson has collapsed, and even 2019 Tory voters appear to have lost faith in the PM. (8/n)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
20 days
NEW: Our US election MRP finds Donald Trump on course for the White House Electoral College 🔴 Trump: 291 (+59) 🔵 Harris: 247 (-59) Data tables here: More details to follow.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
In a similar vein, four in ten Conservative voters from 2019 now say that the current government is not fit for office. Among the wider public, the figure is six in ten. Let's be clear, these are mind-blowing numbers.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
5 years
One quick observation, things are incredibly finely balanced. We calculate ~67 seats that are incredibly marginal and are essentially too close to call
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Most usefully, what this suggests is that if we really were to squeeze respondents (i.e. offer them no DK/Not sure option), these ppl would disproportionately break for Johnson This is likely why our gap is tighter than YouGov's - the "uncertains" lean towards Johnson if pushed
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Now, for a really juicy one. We repeated a leadership question we asked in Apr 2021. A straight shoot-off between Johnson and Starmer on some key leadership qualities. Johnson outperformed Starmer on every measure back in April...
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
For the details: 📌Fieldwork 20-21 Dec 📌GB nat rep, n=1,008 sample 📌Wted by age, gender, region, educ., 2019 GE vote Data to follow.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
We've not seen a poll this damning for a long, long time. Our sense is that the starkness of the findings reflects the immediate public anger felt in response to the parties story, and views may settle down once the story does...
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
If the predictions were to be borne out at the next election, it would rip through the Cabinet, taking no fewer than SIX Cabinet ministers... Including the PM himself. ❌Boris Johnson ❌Alok Sharma ❌George Eustice ❌Simon Clarke ❌Simon Hart󠁧󠁢󠁷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 ❌Alister Jack󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
BUT it is starting to feel that we're getting to the point where the Johnson government can't keep absorbing damaging revelations with little electoral impact. The point of reaching critical mass - it seems - is getting close.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
First up, the predicted national vote share: CON🔵32% LAB🔴40% LD🟠10% GRN🟢7% SNP🟡3% OTHER 9% The bigger story is the seat count this translates into: CON🔵237 (-128 vs. 2019) LAB🔴338 (+136) LD🟠6 GRN🟢1 SNP🟡48 PC⚪️ 1 In other words, a stunning 26-seat Labour majority.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
The MRP model shows Labour winning back EVERY Red Wall seat that voted Conservative in 2019. It predicts that Labour will win all 50 Northern/Midlands/Welsh seats that voted Labour in 2017 but Conservative in 2019. In a single election, this would be a remarkable reversal.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
It's the story about government staff parties that seems to be killing Johnson. The issue has had huge cut-through (only 4% have heard nothing about it), and it really matters to people.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
...and half say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a few weeks ago. If you thought that was bad, four in ten 2019 CONSERVATIVE voters also say they are now less likely to vote for the party (2nd chart)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
The comparison of Johnson's approval ratings vs. Starmer's also mark a step-change compared to what has been seen up to this point. Johnson Disapprove: 62% Approve: 22% Starmer Disapprove: 38% Approve: 26%
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Just to top it off, six in ten think that Johnson should resign if it is proven to be true that there were government staff parties that broke COVID rules.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
The public's opinion of Johnson is collapsing. Three-quarters say that their opinion of the PM has worsened over the past few weeks...
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
5 years
Here's the right URL!!!! -
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
For the details: 📌Fieldwork 12-13 Jan 📌GB nat rep, n=1,003 sample 📌Wted by age, gender, region, educ., 2019 GE vote Data to follow. (9/n)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Similarly, our MRP poll sees a Conservative collapse in Wales, predicting that they will lose 12 of their 14 seats. Labour secure a near-complete clean sweep. LAB🔴37 (+15) CON🔵2 (-12) PC🟢1 (-3)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
As with all our surveys, we ran this poll on our proprietary data collection platform. We use machine learning and automation to deliver higher-quality samples more efficiently. Need to run a poll? You can sign-up here:
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 months
With strong rumours in Westminster of a July general election, now looks like the perfect time to reveal that our exclusive analysis of this month’s local elections suggests that Labour’s ‘true’ lead over the Conservatives is much lower than the polls suggest. 🧵
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 months
📊 NEW: Our first voting intention poll of the UK election campaign gives Labour a 17-point lead. Labour: 43% Conservative: 26% Reform UK: 12% Liberal Democrats: 9% Green: 6%
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
According to the model, the Tories are essentially retreating to their rural England rump. Labour is surging in London (claiming 10 more Con seats) and is expanding its urban strength into many larger towns (e.g. Reading, Milton Keynes, Northampton, Stevenage, Wycombe).
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
To put these results into a bit of historical context: 📌 237 seats would mark the Conservatives lowest haul since 2005 📌 32% vote share would set the Conservatives back to 2001 levels 📌In the post-war era, the jump in Lab seats would be surpassed only by the 1997 jump
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
For the details: 📌Fieldwork 1-21 Dec 📌n=24,373 sample The full constituency breakdown can be found here: Also - please remember this is a CURRENT snapshot of the electoral landscape.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 months
Our probabilistic seat counts do not differ much from merely assigning each seat to the leading party. Labour leads in *398 seats* by a margin of more than 5 points.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 months
Our latest Westminster voting intention poll will be published later today.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
In Scotland, the SNP remain dominant, but Labour shows signs of revival - particularly in the Central Belt. SNP🟡48 (n/c) LAB🔴11 (+10) CON🔵0 (-6) LD🟠0 (-4) N.B. It is NOT the case that Lab win the Con and LD seats. The SNP win all of these, but they narrowly lose 10 to Lab.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
See also the chart below, showing voter flows from 2016 ref vote to current party vote choice. Here's how 2016 Leave voters now split in terms of vote choice: CON🔵50% LAB🔴25% Compare this to how Leave voters split at the 2019 election (source: @YouGov ): CON🔵74% LAB🔴14%
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
As always, we ran this poll using our proprietary data collection, that allows users to get high-quality data faster than traditional providers. Get in touch if you would like to find out more about our services: (10/n)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
In particular, it seems that party vote choice is starting to decouple from 2016 ref vote Con vote % is still strongly correlated with Leave vote %, BUT less so than in 2019 Lab vote % is now largely uncorrelated with Leave vote %, while in 2019 there was a small -ve correl.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Just to wrap up, the startling Lab victory our model predicts is more driven by a Conservative collapse than a Labour surge. To be sure, Lab vote % increases, but not to the same degree that the Con % decreases.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 months
📊 NEW: Our latest voting intention poll shows Reform closing the gap on the Conservatives. Labour: 44% (+1) Conservative: 25% (-1) Reform UK: 14% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 9% (-) Green: 5% (-1) Fieldwork conducted 3–6 June 2,077 respondents (GB)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 months
📊 NEW: Labour leads by 18 points as Reform reaches a record high. Labour: 42% (-2) Conservative: 24% (-1) Reform UK: 15% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 9% (-) Green: 5% (-) Fieldwork conducted 7–11 June 3,124 respondents (GB)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
5 years
In light of @chrishanretty 's excellent scraping 😎 and the @YouGov MRP release tonight (we’re all super excited!), @BestForBritain have very kindly let us release the Constituency results from our MRP model in a nice spreadsheet! A few observations...1/
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Johnson and Starmer now neck-and-neck wrt who people think would make the best PM. Would be interested to know which way that big chunk of Don't Know would split if forced to choose (but we're MRS and BPC members, so wouldn't dream of doing such a thing).
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
For the details: - Fieldwork 9 Dec - GB nat rep, n=1,001 sample Data to follow.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 years
In order to get the first read of the Hartlepool by-election, @focaldataHQ conducted a poll of 83 constituencies across the North of England, sampling 5,265 respondents. We then used these responses to model vote choices in Hartlepool.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Indeed, it is worth noting that the seats that Lab are projected to win from the SNP are all by the very tightest of margins, and well within the margin of error.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 months
Coming up this week from us at Focaldata: 📊 Our third tracking poll of the election campaign (fieldwork almost complete). 📰 An analysis of the four public MRP polls so far, with a focus on a potential source of error that we've identified.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
5 years
This gives a @Conservatives majority of 24. You can find the Westminster Constituency breakdown, methodology here - ttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1STA8vatwu0ux0vbvt877BhXEHR4YeaqZrBSLNbNUZug/edit?usp=sharing
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
That the result is driven by Conservative collapse should actually give Johnson cause for hope. Starmer/Labour do not have runaway levels of popularity as Blair did in 1997. If Johnson can shake off the scandals that are currently dogging him, he can recover his poll position.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
2022 is going to be very interesting politically. We’re also building some powerful new tools to understand public opinion. Get in touch if you think MRP or our regular polling services can be of help:
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
5 years
Thank you @lowles_nick for coming to our office to meet our team @focaldataHQ . It was a pleasure to learn how @hopenothate is using our analyses to fight racism and hate. Looking forward to seeing you again soon!
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 months
👀 Our first tracking poll of the election is coming very soon. Sign up to receive the results here:
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
You can listen to our CEO @JustinIbbett unpacking the findings on Times Radio. Scroll to about 1 hour 9 minutes to hear the big man.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 years
For a visual representation of winners in each of the 83 Northern constituencies we polled, see the maps below. The 2nd map highlights the 15 constituencies we model as changing hands if by-elections were held across the North tomorrow. All 15 are Lab gains from the Conservatives
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 months
Sneak preview before we launch later... With #Euro2024 underway, who would make the best Prime Minister? 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Gareth Southgate: 34% 🔵 Rishi Sunak: 33% 🔴 Keir Starmer: 38% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Gareth Southgate: 29%
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 months
Who would make the best Prime Minister? Keir Starmer: 41% Rishi Sunak: 20% Nigel Farage: 19% Don't know: 20%
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
20 days
Despite this, the Democrats are narrowly-favoured to retake the House of Representatives following the latest redistricting measures.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 years
Plotted on a ternary grid between the traditional 3 major parties in English politics, the net swing of voters in the North away from the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats towards Labour can be seen on a constituency-by-constituency basis
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 months
@drjennings Not sure if you're including MRPs, but the 17-point lead from today will be our final call for voting intention.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
1 year
Missed our newsletter today? Here's what you missed: 🧭 Compass fallacy - are the Tories southern or is the country? 📈 PM winners & losers - seat gains vs increasing vote share 🚶 Elastic theory - biggest supporters aren't the most permanent Read here:
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
1 month
📊 NEW: Kamala Harris leads in five out of seven swing states 🔴 AZ: Trump 46-45 🔴 GA: Trump: 49-45 🔵 MI: Harris: 51-44 🔵 NV: Harris: 48-42 🔵 NC: Harris: 47-46 🔵 PA: Harris: 48-47 🔵 WI: Harris: 50-44 Fieldwork conducted 6–16 August
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
23 days
🚨 MRP RELEASE 🚨 We're very excited to announce that the first results for our US election MRP will be released on Tuesday. Sign up below to receive the results straight to your inbox 👇
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
Beyond these headline results, there were a few other interesting things that we found when analysing the data.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
2 years
Our Chief Researcher @JamesKanag presented his analysis of public opinion and immigration at the @UKandEU conference yesterday. More details on the key drivers and trends in the thread (1/13)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
2 years
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 The complexity of Scottish public opinion – and its volatility – is best captured in this voter triangle – clearly implying a large battleground between the SNP and Labour at the next election. Check out our recent polling and analysis here:
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
5 years
Thanks @AnushkaAsthana for the 'good geekery' shoutout on @itvpeston last night! @focaldataHQ and @unherd 's recent MRP work mapping major issues and sentiments in the UK is now live. The first installment, 'The Royals', is now ready to explore:
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 months
It is clear to us that Labour will not need a double-figure popular-vote lead for a majority based on the electoral geography of the local elections. In fact, we find that the Conservatives' advantage under first-past-the-post seems to have all but disappeared.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 years
We modelled the flow of Hartlepool voters from their 2019 vote to which party they would vote for now. The Conservatives gain the bulk of former Brexit Party voters (40%). By comparison, only around one in ten 2019 Brexit Party voters make the move to Labour (12%).
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
19 days
ICYMI: Yesterday, our US election MRP found Donald Trump on course for the White House. Will the debate change voters' minds? Electoral College 🔴 Trump: 291 (+59) 🔵 Harris: 247 (-59) Data tables here: Write-up:
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
2 years
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Our recent analysis shows Scottish politics is split but not polarized across economic and social issues from left/right replacement, tax/spend, environment and gender issues. These divides get much less attention than the independence debate.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 months
Best Prime Minister head-to-heads: 🔴 Keir Starmer: 49% (+3) 🔵 Rishi Sunak: 35% (+6) 🔴 Keir Starmer: 53% 🟣 Nigel Farage: 31% 🔵 Rishi Sunak: 47% 🟣 Nigel Farage: 37% Changes with 30–31 May
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
🗃️Here are the data tables for our post-PMQs poll. ℹ️There are a few more questions/findings in here that we didn't publish this morning!
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
5 years
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
3 years
For the Friday night data fiends, data tables from our @TimesRadio poll. Don't say we don't spoil you.
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
1 year
The theory is the Tory heartland has moved. This relies on northern gains voting for #leave , not the southern seat gains. The only problem: ❌ Data doesn't support this 💡 Leave vote + Tory support increase is linked in the south Read more in Bi_Focal
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
11 months
There was a lot to unpack in our polling on AI, jobs and skills in partnership with @JimmysJobs . While the UK public are convinced (3:1) that more jobs will be lost to AI than created as a result, they believe the impact will be unevenly felt across different industries. (1/3)
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@focaldataHQ
Focaldata
4 months
👀 Our latest general election tracking poll will be released later today. Remember that you can sign up here to receive the results before they are made public:
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