In this month's
#TransatlanticBarometer
expert interview,
@davidrdollar
of
@BrookingsChina
discusses the future of US-China trade relations, critical goods, and if trade can be a gateway to increased political & security cooperation.
Thru June, US trade deficit w China is down, but up with most other partners and overall; trade war is leading to inefficient reallocation of China trade to other partners, higher costs for US firms and consumers
Trump's trade war is turning the US into a planned economy with firms ordered to stop doing business with China and tens of thousands of firms applying to Commerce for licenses to import their needed inputs
Why globalization is shifting in favor of India, not China via
@BrookingsInst
@arvindsubraman
argues that India’s convergence prospects are improving while China faces growing headwinds
#ChinaTradeDeal
in 20 words: unrealistic purchase numbers; important steps on market access, IPR, currency already announced or implemented; nothing on cyber
theft, SOEs, subsidies
The slowdown in manufacturing has been apparent in the employment data for sometime. The question is whether/when we get to contraction as in late 2016.
On Monday,
@BrookingsInst
is launching the all-new
#DollarandSense
podcast on all things trade, hosted by yours truly. Take a sneak peek and subscribe today:
How long can the world's largest economy go without any real export growth?
Excluding petrol (which has done well) and ag (which hasn't), U.S. real goods exports are below where they were five years ago ...
(1/x)
Why it’s time to end the tit-for-tat tariffs in the U.S.-China trade war via
@BrookingsInst
Peter Petri and I argue that the tariffs will hurt the US economy, not draw major concessions, and risk escalating into a new Cold War
US trade data thru July shows reduced imports from China more than compensated by increased imports from other partners: Mexico, developing Asia, Europe; overall trade deficit keeps rising; trade war leads to inefficient reallocation without much effect on overall trade balances
A year into the trade war, China learns to ride out Trump’s turbulence China is confident in their economy and not inclined to make concessions; they can afford not to make a deal
#frontlinePBS
US financial crisis was a turning point when China lost confidence in the Western model and Americans lost confidence in their own system
The U.S. trade gap widens to a 10-year high via
@markets
Trump's tax cuts and expenditure increases are driving the trade deficit higher; protectionism cannot solve this problem
How to improve global supply chains via
@BrookingsInst
@darrwest
discusses his new report on the breakdowns in global supply chains and to how to address them
Trump's trade war has led to a historically weak Chinese currency — and a new study shows that impact could spread globally | Markets Insider Trump’s trade war could lead to a global financial crisis
Saying that we “lose” billions of dollars on our trade deficit is like saying I “lose” money every time I buy a soda from a vending machine. No, I pay and I get a drink.
#frontlinePBS
fascinating that so many commentators assume that either the US or China will dominate new technologies when it is more likely that both countries will have their successes, as will Japan, Europe and others.
A short history of trade liberalization in developing countries via
@BrookingsInst
Great insights into trade liberalization in developing countries from Doug Irwin
@D_A_Irwin
Trump-Xi deal stops tariff escalation, allows U.S. suppliers to sell to Huawei, and resumes ag purchases. But key issues of technology transfer, IPR protection and industrial policy not resolved and U.S. tariffs on $250 b remain in place. This truce may prove to be temporary
The postwar system was created to promote world prosperity and peace . . . lessons learned from the 1930s but apparently increasingly forgotten. This classic 1947 Herblock cartoon reveals the mindset:
There is modest reorganization of value chains w China exporting components to other developing countries who assemble and export to the US; effect on China trade is minor
China - US trade tensions have been going for some time, so it's a bit surprising that China's goods exports (in nominal terms) haven't fallen (black line). Part of the story is that exports to the US aren't down that much. Part of it is that exports to Euro zone & ASEAN are up.
All about the Trans-Pacific Partnership via
@BrookingsInst
TPP chapters address Issues we have with China trade such as SOEs, IPR protection, data flows
Recalibrating America's role in the world under a Biden presidency via
@BrookingsInst
Marvin Kalb: “It is very important that we seize this moment and lead the world in a better direction. I think the world is ready for that kind of American leadership.”
Is China undermining the global economic order or helping build it? via
@BrookingsInst
China's restrictions on FDI were allowed under its WTO agreement, but it is well past time for the second biggest economy to open up fully
Tonight, I’ll be live tweeting the
#frontlinePBS
premiere of “Trump’s Trade War” at 10/9c. Watch the documentary on
@PBS
or stream it here: I’ll be looking for a balanced picture of pros and cons of China trade
What’s behind the semiconductor shortage and how long could it last? via
@BrookingsInst
“The chip industry has had many shortages before, but they usually are in a particular kind of chip. This time it’s across the board, demand is going through the roof.”
Checking in on China’s economy during the 20th Party Congress via
@BrookingsInst
Chinese GDP data may be delayed but
@EswarSPrasad
and I find plenty to talk about
President Trump said he’s looking at a possible meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month to finish up a trade deal via
@WSJ
tariffs were always bad tactic because they hurt US economy and create pressure to cave
Don’t count on suing China for coronavirus compensation via
@BrookingsInst
suing China is not serious, just a distraction from the Trump administration’s poor performance
Market-based solutions to climate change have failed to deliver via
@BrookingsInst
W David Victor: when you look behind the curtain what we find is that almost all the real work for reducing emissions has been done with regulatory instruments
China has moved to medium-tech activities in the middle of supply chains; some final assembly will shift to lower wage countries to get around US tariffs but China will still supply much of the value added
How many more stories like this before narrative shifts that China advantage ain't about labor $$ anymore. It's about the manu/supply chain ecosystem it has built over 40 yrs. It's like WeChat or ios, everything you need contained in that ecosystem. Switching costs are high.
It’s time to give up on the failed trade war strategy with China via
@BrookingsInst
US imports are shifting from China to other countries but the trade war is not reducing the overall trade deficit or bringing manufacturing jobs home
Addressing the looming sovereign debt crisis in the developing world: It is time to consider a ‘Brady’ plan via
@BrookingsInst
good to hear some new thinking
China 2049: Economic challenges of a rising global power via
@BrookingsInst
China faces daunting challenges domestically (aging, environment, financial stability) as well as internationally (technology competition, its role in the global order)
Industrial decline and the rise of populists in Russia, the U.S., and Britain via
@BrookingsInst
#FionaHill
’s new book traces the rise of right-wing populism to industrial decline
How serious is the risk of war over Taiwan? via
@BrookingsInst
Richard Bush and
@ryanl_hass
analyze the risk of war, the wishes of the Taiwan population, and U.S. policy towards Taiwan and the mainland
How does control of the seas affect global trade and security? via
@BrookingsInst
Bruce Jones
@brucebrookings
“so often globalization is described as having constrained American sovereignty. Of course, the exact opposite is true”
The imperative of US-China dialogue on global issues
@sobel_mark
discusses the importance of Yellen's trip to Beijing and why US-China cooperation on global issues is crucial
China 2049: Economic challenges of a rising global power via
@BrookingsInst
Peking U and Brookings economists assess key domestic and international challenges that will affect its 2049 goals
Did the US-Africa Leaders Summit meet its objectives? via
@BrookingsInst
@Aloysiusordu
analyzes the summit and the prospects for renewed U.S.-Africa relations
How have Trump’s trade wars affected Rust Belt jobs? via
@BrookingsInst
“In Michigan, the auto firms’ investment declined by 29 percent over the three full years of Trump's presidency”
US-China trade war, or trade deal? via
@BrookingsInst
In the inaugural Dollar and Sense podcast
@EswarSPrasad
and I discuss US-China trade and the Trump-Xi meeting at the
#G20
Where progress with China is most likely—and where it isn’t via
@BrookingsInst
We can cooperate w China on global public goods such as climate change, nuclear non-proliferation, development, and free trade
Whatever President Trump may have said about guarding national security or creating steel jobs, the tariffs were never about military strength or American workers. Their purpose was to enrich steel firms. They succeeded—but at an exorbitant price.
A Forecasting Model Used by the CIA Predicts a Surprising Turn in U.S.-China Relations via
@politico
I enjoyed participating in this game theory exercise that — surprisingly — predicts a thaw in U.S.-China economic relations
Checking in on China’s economy during the 20th Party Congress via
@BrookingsInst
@EswarSPrasad
and I analyze the key economic challenges facing China’s leadership
Anxiety about the global economy in Davos via
@BrookingsInst
@DougRediker
and I discuss
#BRI
and China's debt diplomacy in the second half of our podcast
Reactions to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Brookings speech via
@BrookingsInst
Too much focus on Buy American without recognizing its costs
What’s driving populism’s rise on both sides of the Atlantic? via
@BrookingsInst
while the elites meet in
#Davos
, listen to
@celiabelin
discuss populist anger on both sides of the Atlantic
After France’s parliamentary elections, can Macron govern at home and lead abroad? via
@BrookingsInst
@celiabelin
breaks down the French elections and the erosion of support for Macron on both the left and the right
Will protests in Iran end the Islamic Republic? via
@BrookingsInst
@MaloneySuzanne
explains the social and economic forces behind Iran demonstrations and potential scenarios going forward
How workers got left behind in the pandemic while shareholder wealth soared via
@BrookingsInst
@MollyKinder
discusses new report on wages and shareholder wealth during the pandemic
A back to school primer on global trade issues via
@BrookingsInst
Thanks to all the summer interns who livened Brookings up this summer, appreciate your questions for this episode of
#Dollar
&Sense
U.S.-China trade war and the financial crisis via
@BrookingsInst
I lectured to 500 officials from Hebei province on the crisis. Q&A surprised me w the comment “up to now we thought the U.S. was the model for everything. Now we don’t know what to think.”
The Ukraine war’s impact on developing countries via
@BrookingsInst
@IndermitGill
joins me to discuss how disruptions to food and energy trade, K flows, and remittances create difficulties for developing countries
The story of Vietnam’s economic revolution via
@BrookingsInst
"The liberalization of foreign trade and investment helped Vietnamese enterprises and industries to recover rapidly and develop a future where they could work more with foreign partners"
How does control of the seas affect global trade and security? via
@BrookingsInst
@brucebrookings
Bruce Jones discusses his book, To Rule the Waves: “In my mind, the key flashpoint in geopolitics is the naval arms race centered in the western Pacific”
How will the Chinese economy rebound from COVID-19? via
@BrookingsInst
Dexter Roberts and I use his new book, the Myth of Chinese Capitalism, as a jumping off point to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on China's economy and US-China relations
How should the G-7 respond to China’s BRI? via
@BrookingsInst
@hofrench
argues that we should leave infrastructure to China and focus on our strengths, education and health