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David Dollar Profile
David Dollar

@davidrdollar

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Host @BrookingsInst trade podcast, Dollar and Sense. Senior fellow @BrookingsChina . Former World Bank and Treasury rep in Beijing

Joined October 2013
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
11 months
Timely discussion of US-China trade
@BertelsmannFdn
Bertelsmann Foundation
11 months
In this month's #TransatlanticBarometer expert interview, @davidrdollar of @BrookingsChina discusses the future of US-China trade relations, critical goods, and if trade can be a gateway to increased political & security cooperation.
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Thru June, US trade deficit w China is down, but up with most other partners and overall; trade war is leading to inefficient reallocation of China trade to other partners, higher costs for US firms and consumers
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Trump's trade war is turning the US into a planned economy with firms ordered to stop doing business with China and tens of thousands of firms applying to Commerce for licenses to import their needed inputs
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
US trade deficit is being reallocated from China to other countries but not coming down
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
8 years
Trump: "we’re being hurt very badly by China with devaluation"; no, China not pushing down yuan, dollar rising against all other currencies
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
Why globalization is shifting in favor of India, not China via @BrookingsInst @arvindsubraman argues that India’s convergence prospects are improving while China faces growing headwinds
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
#ChinaTradeDeal in 20 words: unrealistic purchase numbers; important steps on market access, IPR, currency already announced or implemented; nothing on cyber theft, SOEs, subsidies
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Manufacturing employment has already turned negative in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
@nick_bunker
Nick Bunker
5 years
The slowdown in manufacturing has been apparent in the employment data for sometime. The question is whether/when we get to contraction as in late 2016.
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
US manufacturing trade deficit keeps growing under Trump
@Brad_Setser
Brad Setser
5 years
How long can the world's largest economy go without any real export growth? Excluding petrol (which has done well) and ag (which hasn't), U.S. real goods exports are below where they were five years ago ... (1/x)
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
Why it’s time to end the tit-for-tat tariffs in the U.S.-China trade war via @BrookingsInst Peter Petri and I argue that the tariffs will hurt the US economy, not draw major concessions, and risk escalating into a new Cold War
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
US trade data thru July shows reduced imports from China more than compensated by increased imports from other partners: Mexico, developing Asia, Europe; overall trade deficit keeps rising; trade war leads to inefficient reallocation without much effect on overall trade balances
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
And never a woman on the standing committee, in 70 years
@amyyqin
Amy Qin
5 years
“Half the sky,” a fraction of the parade
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
A year into the trade war, China learns to ride out Trump’s turbulence China is confident in their economy and not inclined to make concessions; they can afford not to make a deal
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
Nice blue day in Beijing for Brookings and Peking U economists to discuss the next phase of economic reforms
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
#frontlinePBS US financial crisis was a turning point when China lost confidence in the Western model and Americans lost confidence in their own system
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
How to improve global supply chains via @BrookingsInst @darrwest discusses his new report on the breakdowns in global supply chains and to how to address them
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Trump's trade war has led to a historically weak Chinese currency — and a new study shows that impact could spread globally | Markets Insider Trump’s trade war could lead to a global financial crisis
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Imports are half the benefit of trade
@prchovanec
Patrick Chovanec
5 years
Saying that we “lose” billions of dollars on our trade deficit is like saying I “lose” money every time I buy a soda from a vending machine. No, I pay and I get a drink.
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
#frontlinePBS fascinating that so many commentators assume that either the US or China will dominate new technologies when it is more likely that both countries will have their successes, as will Japan, Europe and others.
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
A short history of trade liberalization in developing countries via @BrookingsInst Great insights into trade liberalization in developing countries from Doug Irwin @D_A_Irwin
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
3 years
Why did state-building efforts in Afghanistan fail? via @BrookingsInst @jmurtazashvili and I discuss why all that aid produced so little
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Silver lining in the trade war: it reminds Americans how dumb and self-defeating protection is
@ChicagoCouncil
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
5 years
More Americans than ever think international #trade is good for the US economy and good for US companies. Details: #2019CCS
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Trump-Xi deal stops tariff escalation, allows U.S. suppliers to sell to Huawei, and resumes ag purchases. But key issues of technology transfer, IPR protection and industrial policy not resolved and U.S. tariffs on $250 b remain in place. This truce may prove to be temporary
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
We have lost track of how much prosperity and peace depend on free trade
@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
The postwar system was created to promote world prosperity and peace . . . lessons learned from the 1930s but apparently increasingly forgotten. This classic 1947 Herblock cartoon reveals the mindset:
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
There is modest reorganization of value chains w China exporting components to other developing countries who assemble and export to the US; effect on China trade is minor
@robin_j_brooks
Robin Brooks
5 years
China - US trade tensions have been going for some time, so it's a bit surprising that China's goods exports (in nominal terms) haven't fallen (black line). Part of the story is that exports to the US aren't down that much. Part of it is that exports to Euro zone & ASEAN are up.
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
Is anyone winning the US-China trade war? via @BrookingsInst
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
All about the Trans-Pacific Partnership via @BrookingsInst TPP chapters address Issues we have with China trade such as SOEs, IPR protection, data flows
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
4 years
Recalibrating America's role in the world under a Biden presidency via @BrookingsInst Marvin Kalb: “It is very important that we seize this moment and lead the world in a better direction. I think the world is ready for that kind of American leadership.”
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
Why is Trump protecting Chinese company ZTE? via @BrookingsInst
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Initial studies show that the full cost of China tariffs is passed on to US consumers
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Is China undermining the global economic order or helping build it? via @BrookingsInst China's restrictions on FDI were allowed under its WTO agreement, but it is well past time for the second biggest economy to open up fully
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Tonight, I’ll be live tweeting the #frontlinePBS premiere of “Trump’s Trade War” at 10/9c. Watch the documentary on @PBS or stream it here: I’ll be looking for a balanced picture of pros and cons of China trade
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
3 years
What’s behind the semiconductor shortage and how long could it last? via @BrookingsInst “The chip industry has had many shortages before, but they usually are in a particular kind of chip. This time it’s across the board, demand is going through the roof.”
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
Checking in on China’s economy during the 20th Party Congress via @BrookingsInst Chinese GDP data may be delayed but @EswarSPrasad and I find plenty to talk about
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
President Trump said he’s looking at a possible meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month to finish up a trade deal via @WSJ tariffs were always bad tactic because they hurt US economy and create pressure to cave
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
4 years
Don’t count on suing China for coronavirus compensation via @BrookingsInst suing China is not serious, just a distraction from the Trump administration’s poor performance
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
4 years
Market-based solutions to climate change have failed to deliver via @BrookingsInst W David Victor: when you look behind the curtain what we find is that almost all the real work for reducing emissions has been done with regulatory instruments
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
China has moved to medium-tech activities in the middle of supply chains; some final assembly will shift to lower wage countries to get around US tariffs but China will still supply much of the value added
@damienics
Damien Ma
5 years
How many more stories like this before narrative shifts that China advantage ain't about labor $$ anymore. It's about the manu/supply chain ecosystem it has built over 40 yrs. It's like WeChat or ios, everything you need contained in that ecosystem. Switching costs are high.
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
It’s time to give up on the failed trade war strategy with China via @BrookingsInst US imports are shifting from China to other countries but the trade war is not reducing the overall trade deficit or bringing manufacturing jobs home
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
3 years
The state of Asian trade and trade agreements in 2022 via @BrookingsInst U.S. is MIA as RCEP launches and CPTPP expands
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
China 2049: Economic challenges of a rising global power via @BrookingsInst China faces daunting challenges domestically (aging, environment, financial stability) as well as internationally (technology competition, its role in the global order)
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
3 years
Industrial decline and the rise of populists in Russia, the U.S., and Britain via @BrookingsInst #FionaHill ’s new book traces the rise of right-wing populism to industrial decline
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
7 years
China's new investment rules via @BrookingsInst no more football clubs
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
3 years
Merry Christmas from the Lincoln Memorial and the mall
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
3 years
How does control of the seas affect global trade and security? via @BrookingsInst Bruce Jones @brucebrookings “so often globalization is described as having constrained American sovereignty. Of course, the exact opposite is true”
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
4 years
Seven years into China’s Belt and Road via @BrookingsInst my updated assessment of BRI in the era of Covid-19
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Former USTR Charlene Barshefsky on the obstacles to a US-China trade deal via @BrookingsInst Charlene Barshefsky outlines a better approach to China
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
Did the US-Africa Leaders Summit meet its objectives? via @BrookingsInst @Aloysiusordu analyzes the summit and the prospects for renewed U.S.-Africa relations
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
4 years
Michael Spence on US-China competition and Industry 4.0 via @BrookingsInst
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
4 years
How have Trump’s trade wars affected Rust Belt jobs? via @BrookingsInst “In Michigan, the auto firms’ investment declined by 29 percent over the three full years of Trump's presidency”
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
We launched GVC research report at IMF meetings
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
Trade priorities for Congress: A conversation with Rep. Rick Larsen via @BrookingsInst @RepRickLarsen gives a pro-trade view from the Democratic side
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
US-China trade war, or trade deal? via @BrookingsInst In the inaugural Dollar and Sense podcast @EswarSPrasad and I discuss US-China trade and the Trump-Xi meeting at the #G20
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
7 years
Great photo essay of the new Silk Road
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
Where progress with China is most likely—and where it isn’t via @BrookingsInst We can cooperate w China on global public goods such as climate change, nuclear non-proliferation, development, and free trade
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
Unpacked: The US-China Trade War via @BrookingsInst Trump's trade war will hurt specific sectors and locations in the U.S.
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
Tariffs are an expensive way to create jobs in some sectors at the expense of jobs in other sectors!
@PIIE
Peterson Institute
6 years
Whatever President Trump may have said about guarding national security or creating steel jobs, the tariffs were never about military strength or American workers. Their purpose was to enrich steel firms. They succeeded—but at an exorbitant price.
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
A Forecasting Model Used by the CIA Predicts a Surprising Turn in U.S.-China Relations via @politico I enjoyed participating in this game theory exercise that — surprisingly — predicts a thaw in U.S.-China economic relations
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
The US-China trade war has begun via @BrookingsInst July 6 is a dark day for economists, US starts to backtrack on 70 years of trade liberalization
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
Checking in on China’s economy during the 20th Party Congress via @BrookingsInst @EswarSPrasad and I analyze the key economic challenges facing China’s leadership
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
Anxiety about the global economy in Davos via @BrookingsInst @DougRediker and I discuss #BRI and China's debt diplomacy in the second half of our podcast
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
Inflation trends in the US and globally via @BrookingsInst Don Kohn previews the Fed’s next steps to control inflation
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
What’s driving populism’s rise on both sides of the Atlantic? via @BrookingsInst while the elites meet in #Davos , listen to @celiabelin discuss populist anger on both sides of the Atlantic
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
7 years
Yes, China is investing globally—but not so much in its belt and road initiative via @BrookingsInst
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
What a treat to interview Madame Pham Chi Lan in Hanoi, on the role of trade in Vietnam’s reform and development, airing 9/30 on #Dollar &Sense
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
After France’s parliamentary elections, can Macron govern at home and lead abroad? via @BrookingsInst @celiabelin breaks down the French elections and the erosion of support for Macron on both the left and the right
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
Will protests in Iran end the Islamic Republic? via @BrookingsInst @MaloneySuzanne explains the social and economic forces behind Iran demonstrations and potential scenarios going forward
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
How workers got left behind in the pandemic while shareholder wealth soared via @BrookingsInst @MollyKinder discusses new report on wages and shareholder wealth during the pandemic
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
A back to school primer on global trade issues via @BrookingsInst Thanks to all the summer interns who livened Brookings up this summer, appreciate your questions for this episode of #Dollar &Sense
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
U.S.-China trade war and the financial crisis via @BrookingsInst I lectured to 500 officials from Hebei province on the crisis. Q&A surprised me w the comment “up to now we thought the U.S. was the model for everything. Now we don’t know what to think.”
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
4 years
How domestic economic reforms in China can ease tensions between Washington and Beijing via @BrookingsInst
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
2 years
The Ukraine war’s impact on developing countries via @BrookingsInst @IndermitGill joins me to discuss how disruptions to food and energy trade, K flows, and remittances create difficulties for developing countries
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
The story of Vietnam’s economic revolution via @BrookingsInst "The liberalization of foreign trade and investment helped Vietnamese enterprises and industries to recover rapidly and develop a future where they could work more with foreign partners"
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
6 years
New tariffs escalate the US-China trade war via @BrookingsInst busy week with new tariffs, hearings on the next $200 b, and Chinese delegation in town
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
5 years
#ChinaTradeDeal purchase commitments require US exports to China to grow 40% in 2020 and an additional 40% in 2021 — implausibly large increases
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
3 years
How does control of the seas affect global trade and security? via @BrookingsInst @brucebrookings Bruce Jones discusses his book, To Rule the Waves: “In my mind, the key flashpoint in geopolitics is the naval arms race centered in the western Pacific”
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@davidrdollar
David Dollar
4 years
How will the Chinese economy rebound from COVID-19? via @BrookingsInst Dexter Roberts and I use his new book, the Myth of Chinese Capitalism, as a jumping off point to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on China's economy and US-China relations
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