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Douglas Irwin Profile
Douglas Irwin

@D_A_Irwin

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Trade economist/economic history @DartmouthEcon , @PIIE , @NBERpubs

Hanover, NH
Joined March 2016
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
10 months
Goodbye to double digit royalty checks. . . You can now freely download pdf chapters of Clashing over Commerce on the @nberpubs website!
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
Proposal: why don't we write to basic macro identity as Y = (C + I + G - M) + X to make it clear that the trade deficit doesn't reduce GDP, rather, imports are subtracted simply to eliminate them from domestic expenditures
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
How about an AER rejection in which the editor says your paper is "very narrow" & "adds practically nothing to the literature"? That's the rejection that Wolfgang Stolper & Paul Saumuelson got for the Stolper-Samuelson theorem - one of the most important ideas in trade ever!
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 years
Why was there was so much trade liberalization in pivotal decade of 1985-95 - creating globalized world of today? Thread on new paper 1/7
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
11 months
Important thread here . . the big impact of a 10% Trump tariff would not be the static deadweight losses, but the end of the trading system -> retaliation against the US, discrimination agst US in other markets, end of GATT rules, and a mess that would be very hard to unwind.
@paulkrugman
Paul Krugman
11 months
OK, the economics. A flat 10% tariff on imports would hurt the economy, but not as much as some people seem to imagine. Doug Irwin estimates that even 40%-plus 19th century tariffs generally caused deadweight losses <1% of GDP 4/ .
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
So a steel executive supports the 25% steel tariff but cries for an exemption on the steel inputs his firm purchases. . . Bottom line: he wants to stick others with higher prices but complains when it affects him. Bring out the tiny violins! via @WSJ
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
“The first duty of an economist is to describe correctly what is out there: a valid description without a deeper explanation is worth a thousand times more than a clever explanation of nonexistent facts.” - Paul Samuelson
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 years
Key, priceless graf from @paulkrugman : How the West Is Strangling Putin’s Economy
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
If you can't stand hundreds of pages of US trade policy history, perhaps try 35?
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
THREAD: Tomorrow (July 26) is the 85th birthday of Jagdish Bhagwati, one of the great trade economists of all time (1/n)
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
100% pass-through - important findings on Trump tariffs by the great team of Amiti, Redding, and Weinstein - HT: @sdonnan
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
Happy (belated) 94th birthday to the great trade economist Max Corden! 1/4
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 years
Honored to have been selected as President-elect of the @EconHistAssoc for '22-23. Economic historians ask big questions and the range and quality of research has improved greatly over the course of my career. Go #EconHistory !
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
7 years
April 19 marks the 200th anniversary of Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage - lift a glass of Portuguese wine!
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
To understand the political power of sugar producers, consider this passage from John Boehner's book "On the House":
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@JGodiasMurphy
John G. Murphy
3 years
“We are only getting a fraction of what we need” — the US tariff-and-quota system for sugar at work.
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
How the heck did this happen?! A thread on my new paper on South Korea
@PIIE
Peterson Institute
3 years
In 1960, South Korea’s exports were ~1% of GDP & the country’s ability to import depended mostly on US aid. After changing its foreign exchange & trade policies in the mid-1960s, Korea saw a surge in exports to more than 10% of GDP by the end of the decade.
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
When Keynes abandoned free trade & turned to protectionism, Virginia Woolf was so shocked she fainted at the news . . . now THAT'S taking trade policy seriously! from @zachdcarter new book on Keynes
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
A great and non-obvious example of gains from trade and variety
@adam_tooze
Adam Tooze
4 years
Why does the “desert kingdom” of Saudi Arabia import sand from Australia? Because desert sand grains are too small, too round and too smooth to be much use for construction; you might so well make bricks out of icing sugar.
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
"the part of economics that is independent of history and social context is not only small but dull" - Robert Solow (1997)
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 months
New working paper on global inequality . . . not only has between-country inequality fallen over past 2-3 decades, but so has within-country inequality
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
Another just-updated trade war paper by leading economists also finds 100% pass-through of US tariffs to consumer prices, slightly smaller DWL HT: @tylercowen
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
11 months
The China Shock narrative emphasizes the loss of US manufacturing jobs & harm to certain communities, but the expansion of trade with China benefited most American workers. Lots of winners, few losers, as this chart illustrates:
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
Just a reminder that trade policy is foreign policy. A sad read.
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 months
The claim that import tariffs are not passed through to domestic prices flies in the face of abundant evidence (multiple published studies) from the Trump tariffs
@PhilipWegmann
Philip Melanchthon Wegmann
2 months
When asked about tariffs increasing prices for consumers, USTR @AmbassadorTai replies, “I think that that link in terms of tariffs to prices has been largely debunked.”
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
"Influential House Democrats say they won't even negotiate with the WH [on USMCA] until Trump stops threatening to withdraw from NAFTA and lifts his tariffs on Canada's and Mexico’s steel and aluminum." HT: @snlester
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
In case you're curious, the ship turns around. . . .
@sjcasey
Simon Casey
6 years
Ship-tracking data shows what happens when you're halfway to China before Biejing slaps a 179% tariff on the product you're carrying via @megandurisin #OATT
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
Yikes! Hard to believe it has been 25 years since @PrincetonUPress published my book "Against the Tide: An Intellectual History of Free Trade"
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 years
Very sorry to hear that Ron Jones, the great trade theorist @ Univ of Rochester, has passed away. His 1965 @JPolEcon is a foundational classic, his textbook World Trade and Payments another classic, among so many contributions . . .
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
Amazing story from Paul Volcker's memoir . . .the 1971 Nixon shock was supposed to include US withdrawal from the 1965 auto pact with Canada. . . but a State Dept official tore off the last page of the press release mentioning it and it was forgotten!
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
The passing of Robert Mundell reminds me of his 2001 debate with Milton Friedman on fixed versus floating exchange rates, the economics and politics of the Euro, the adjustment mechanism, and much more. Truly a clash of titans
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
A recurring trade policy phenomenon.....when the Reagan administration restricted sugar imports in early 1980s, it was soon restricting imports of confectionery products, including cake mixes, because firms were sifting out the sugar to avoid the import quotas! 🎂🥮🍰
@sdonnan
Shawn Donnan
4 years
Tariffs haven’t worked. So add more tariffs?
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
"The whole point of economics is to figure out how, in a world of scarce resources, we can make people’s lives better." A beautiful remembrance of Alan Krueger by @crampell
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
7 years
At long last, this appears from @UChicagoPress , should be shipping soon!
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 years
Looking forward to @dartmouth commencement with speaker Russell Wilson @DangeRussWilson this morning 🌄
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
Happy 97th Birthday to Arnold Harberger! (1/3)
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
8 months
Honored to have given a keynote at the 9th IMF-World Bank-WTO trade conference this week - on the role of these institutions in promoting trade reform in developing countries in the 1980s-90s 1/n
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
Most recent Gallup poll still shows strong US support for trade, more opportunity than threat . . . nice long time-series for comparison
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
We've protected steel a myriad of ways in past, all failed to revitalize industry, leading to lost jobs in downstream sectors, and retaliation agst our exports
@DavidBeckworth
David Beckworth
6 years
Here is @D_A_Irwin on his new book
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
Which Nobel laureate in economics said this in 1996?
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
7 years
A old classic by @paulkrugman on why businessmen aren't good on econ policy: "A Country is not a Company"
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 years
Time to re-up this . . . .
@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
Proposal: why don't we write to basic macro identity as Y = (C + I + G - M) + X to make it clear that the trade deficit doesn't reduce GDP, rather, imports are subtracted simply to eliminate them from domestic expenditures
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
7 years
Congress is not cutting taxes. As Milton Friedman said, to spend is to tax. Congress is raising taxes on my kids. #BudgetConstraints
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
Saturday May 15 is the 175th anniversary of the repeal of the Corn Laws by the House of Commons. . . raise a glass to Richard Cobden and Sir Robert Peel!
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
A young J M Keynes in 1903: "I hate all priests and protectionists. Free trade and free thought! Down with pontiffs and tariffs"
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
My tribute to a great human being, @Columbia trade economist Ron Findlay....
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
My work here is done . . .
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@PIIE
Peterson Institute
4 years
Priority 1: Abolish the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. Read the rest of @D_A_Irwin 's #PIIERebuilding recommendations to the next Director of the National Trade Council:
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
1 year
My dear Bailey, RIP 😢
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
Proud of my @DartmouthEcon colleagues who have made us a #15 US econ dept -- without a graduate program, focusing entirely on undergraduates!
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 years
Celebrating the career and contributions of Alan Winters, who has helped us all understand the world of trade policy, with @BernardHoekman at @EUI_EU in Florence
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
7 years
Honored that my book is among The Economist's best of 2017, and glad that the paper continues to champion the principles of liberal trade (as it has since 1843) via @TheEconomist
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
India's internal trade barriers are more costly than its external trade barriers . . . .
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
My @DartmouthEcon colleague @jimfeyrer has a terrific paper using the closure of the Suez Canal from 1967-75 as a natural experiment of increasing trade costs . . . bottom line - less trade, less income, so let's hope the ship gets unblocked!
@tracyalloway
Tracy Alloway
3 years
The Suez Canal, one of the busiest waterways in the world, has been blocked by a giant container ship that got stuck. You can see other ships piling up behind it. by @roberttuttle & @JavierBlas
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
When you don't have the steel workers on your side . . . .
@willmauldin
Will Mauldin
6 years
The United Steelworkers don't support the Trump administration's latest steel-tariffs move, which extends the duties to Canada. "This decision is unacceptable and calls into serious question the design and direction of the administration's trade policy." @steelworkers
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
We economists talk about container ships, but who appreciated how important pallets were to trade?!
@crampell
Catherine Rampell
5 years
No-deal Brexit panic after ministers realize the UK doesn't have the right pallets for exporting to the EU
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
"Several times Cohn just asked the pres 'Why do you have these views [on trade]?' 'I just do,' Trump replied. 'I've had these views for 30 years.' 'That doesn't mean they're right,' Cohn said. 'I had the view for 15 years I could play pro football. It doesn't mean I was right.'"
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
Looking forward to reading this major contribution by @OscarCalvo_econ - great story on institutional change and the development path in Spain
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
If you are interested in GATT history, you'll have to check out Francine McKenzie's new book....very good on the global political context
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 years
“Milton Friedman isn’t running the show anymore.” - Joe Biden, April 2020 "Milton Friedman is having a moment." - @greg_ip , June 2022
@greg_ip
Greg Ip
2 years
A surge in the money supply last year followed by higher inflation has Milton Friedman's followers saying "I told you so." Money's utility is still limited by unstable velocity, but its rise reinforces importance of nominal GDP to inflation.
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 months
New book out edited by Maury Obstfeld and me, with thanks to @AdamPosen Floating Exchange Rates at Fifty via @PIIE
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
9 months
Sorry to learn that Max Corden has passed away. His book "Trade Policy and Economic Welfare" was an inspiration, and the idea of effective protection is a lasting part of the trade canon
@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
Happy (belated) 94th birthday to the great trade economist Max Corden! 1/4
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
Teaching trade now which means lot of PPFs, terms of trade lines, and indifference curves . . .a salute to Enrico Barone, a brilliant Italian economist who put together these tools in a path-breaking footnote in 1908 to illustrate the gains from trade
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
President Trump sought to reduce the trade deficit, increase manufacturing employment, change China’s policies, and reach better deals, but fell short on all counts, writes @D_A_Irwin via @WSJ
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 months
About to go to a conference at the Banque de France...hope there are no hard feelings
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
He's absolutely right. . . nobody says that.
@FoxNews
Fox News
6 years
. @POTUS : "If I bring the trade deficits down, we could pick up 3 and 4 points in GDP."
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
"pretty much everything Mr. Trump has promised on the trade front by imposing tariffs hasn’t panned out, even if the president persists in saying the opposite" - point by point by @veroderugy
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
Free trade is *always* under fire . . . . so it's time for a new, updated 5th edition. Available from @PrincetonUPress in March Pre-order here:
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
An important reason for the US chip shortage . . . by @ChadBown
@ChadBown
Chad P. Bown
3 years
Trump imposed 25% trade war tariffs on semiconductors beginning in July 2018. The US now imports **half as many** semiconductors from China as it did pre-trade war. (That's billions of fewer chips). Those missing chips have NOT been replaced by imports from elsewhere... 3/
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
Amazing reformer who transformed Australia: Hawke cut protective tariffs, privatized state-owned industries, taxed fringe benefits/capital gains, floated the overvalued Australian dollar, reined in powerful unions & increased spending for education/welfare
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
2 years
Bottom line: Exporting food great Importing food "a disgrace" Back to the Corn Laws under the Conservatives?
@brianklaas
Brian Klaas
2 years
The next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom:
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
7 years
After US imposed #SmootHawley in 1930, the pro-US Liberal govt in Canada fell, the pro-UK Cons took over & retaliated hard agst US exports
@davidfrum
David Frum
7 years
So we’re all going to feel very pleased with ourselves when the Mexicans replace Pena Nieto with a left-wing anti-American nationalist
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
7 years
Call it neoliberalism, call it whatever, "free markets improved more lives than anything ever" says @Noahpinion via @bv
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
Happy to find "Clashing over Commerce" on @foreignaffairs Best Books of the Year 2018 - paperback with new afterward coming in late 2019 via @ForeignAffairs
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
It's not that we fail to tax carbon and fossil fuel emissions, the world actually *subsidizes* them . . . big time.
@ASteiner
Achim Steiner
5 years
@IMFNews just published global update on fossil fuel subsidies: estimate f 2017 a staggering US$ 5.2 TRILLION (6.5% of global GDP). ‘Efficient fossil fuel pricing’ in 2015, would have lowered carbon emissions by 28% & foss fuel air pollution deaths by 46%.
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
Recognize these great trade economists from 1976?
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
If you care about the trade deficit, seems odd to pick on Canada and Mexico. . .
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
In his classic 1963 JPE article with Ramaswami, he showed how the case for free trade was not dependent on perfect markets, breaking the old link between free trade & laissez faire; hard to overstate the importance of this work (2/n)
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
Sorry to hear of John Williamson's passing . . . @PIIE has collected his many writings on the Washington Consensus here:
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
A fine new paper that looks at/quantifies the retaliation against US exports as a result of the Smoot-Hawley tariff
@nberpubs
NBER
3 years
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff triggered a trade war that reduced US exports to retaliating countries by as much as 33%, from Kris James Mitchener, Kirsten Wandschneider, and @kevinhorourke
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
7 years
That's because Trump always cites balance on goods, not "goods and services" - ignore net exports of services, make deficit seems bigger
@ftbreakingnews
FT Breaking News
7 years
Trump's claim about the US trade deficit is about $300bn higher than the official data
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
A landmark in understanding trade policy... published 245 years ago but still worth reading (esp Bk IV)
@AdamSmithHouse
Adam Smith's Panmure House
3 years
On this day in 1776, Smith's first edition of 'An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations' was published by W. Strahan in Scotland & T. Cadell in London. The 1st edition comprises two volumes and around 700 copies were made. #AdamSmithHouse
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
Now that's a trade war
@MWPalen
Marc-William Palen (@mwpalen.bsky.social)
6 years
Kosovo-Serbia relations the last 3 days: 21/11 - Kosovo slapped 100% tariff on Serbian goods 22/11 - Kosovoans publicly burn goods made in Serbia 23/11 - Hundreds of Serbs in Kosovo protest the new tariff
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
10 months
If 10% tariffs would be so great, wouldn't 25% and 35% and 45% tariffs be greater still? What's the limiting principle?
@snlester
Simon Lester
10 months
Trump letter to WSJ: "Under Joe Biden, our trade deficits, also known as losses, have hit record highs." But Biden has mostly kept Trump's tariffs in place, so this kind of seems like an argument that tariffs don't lead to lower trade deficits.
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
Paying my respects to Mr. J. S. Mill in London
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
Teaching trade this term? Consider assigning this trade trilogy to your students: 1. how to think about trade today 2. the problems with protectionism 3. an analysis of Trump's policy
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
Fun fact: a copy of this paper was found by US special forces in the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan in 2011 . . . he apparently kept a file on France!
@dandolfa
David Andolfatto
3 years
Related article by @D_A_Irwin "Did France Cause the Great Depression?"
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
7 months
. @DartmouthEcon on top of the Andes as we leave Chile 🇨🇱 to go study Argentina 🇦🇷
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
If AFL-CIO thinks tariffs have gone too far, what does this say about our (economist's) political economy models? Who really wants them?
@CBSNews
CBS News
6 years
Despite previous praise for them, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka says President Trump's tariffs have gone too far
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
1 year
Should developing countries follow the new Washington-Beijing-Brussels consensus of spending lots and lots of money on industrial policy? 🤔 Some skeptical notes ⤵️
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
Not feasible....but might be with trade
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
Only a group of @DartmouthEcon students could get excited about seeing the central bank of Chile on a sunny Sunday in Santiago 😎
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
3 years
In the pre-internet era, it took time, effort, and luck to find books - which made it fun! Here are some of my favorites on trade ... First up, from June 1984, my purchase at Sidney Kramer's in Washington DC (later met Max and got him to sign it)
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
4 years
I'd love to know the evidence behind this assertion - if there is any. . . a lot of policy officials at the time and trade economists today would strongly disagree
@MaraRhymesSarah
Mara Lee
4 years
@USTradeRep Lighthizer says the idea that higher tariffs contributed to the duration/depth of the Great Depression is an "urban myth" while speaking at Catholic U.
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
"the idea that the typical American is little better off than four decades ago does not withstand scrutiny," featuring my @dartmouthecon colleague Bruce Sacerdote . . via @TheEconomist
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
5 years
"the agency’s studies showing how USDA’s farm-subsidy programs disproportionately benefit wealthier farmers have been a 'perennial irritant' to influential lobbying groups"
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
6 years
Ultimately he wants *managed trade*, not free trade (zero tariffs), as reflected in his stance on NAFTA
@mark4harrison
Mark Harrison
6 years
“It’s not good enough” (Trump yesterday on an EU auto tariff proposal). “Their consumer habits are to buy their cars, not to buy our cars.” So it's the *people* who are wrong, not the policies and not the producers . . .
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@D_A_Irwin
Douglas Irwin
1 year
Next month marks the 50th anniversary of floating exchange rates.... Maury Obstfeld, @AdamPosen and I have assembled an all-star cast to reassess the past and look to the future of the exchange rate regime. Check it out! via @PIIE
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