Author of 'To Rule the Waves', which examines the tension between globalization and geopolitics — playing out on the world’s contested seas. Brookings scholar.
My Twitter feed: “the US should stop being so arrogant as to presume it is still leading international affairs”
Also my Twitter feed: “Why hasn’t Biden snapped his fingers and produced a cease-fire in the Middle East?!?”
When Putin’s team thought through likely outcomes, I’m guessing “EU provides fighter jets to Ukraine” wasn’t even remotely on their list of possible developments….
Amazing animation of how the Charles Bridge was built in Prague in the 14th century.
We easily underestimate the technical knowledge people had in the past.
Hard to know which is more annoying; the “why is America starting another M.E. war?” crowd (after 27 Houthi attacks on global shipping) or the “woo hoo let’s whoop them / bomb them into deterrence” crowd
#RedSea
— prudence is a virtue not a weakness
Must read op-Ed from
@thantmyintu
-- strategy for Myanmar is not status quo ante but a new path to a more inclusive democracy.
#Myanmar
Important cautionary note to the US/West on scale of sanctions response.
Huge thanks to the Biden China team for handling the Meng / 2 Michael’s file with quiet professionalism resulting in the release of Michael Korvig and Michael Spavor. Tomorrow we can parse what it says about China and western unity — but for tonight, simply thank god they r feee
Just back from India's Eastern Naval Command. Incredibly impressive base and shipyard operation in Visakhapatnam. Met Flag Officer CINC, Fleet Admiral, and Capt of the INS Delhi and XO INS Kolkata to discuss India's growing role in maritime security. Impressive all round.
#India
Caitlin Talmadge. Andrea Thompson. Rose Gottemoeller. Christine Wing. Loren DeJonge Schulman. Jung Pak. Kate Hewitt. Natasha Bajama. Lynn Eden. Emma Belcher. Shall we continue?
@ArmsControlWonk
@Livermore_Lab
@ElbridgeColby
@jkwarden
Opening Pandora's box here by saying that the conference should have the best speakers for the themes chosen, regardless of gender/diversity.
It is a sad thing so few women are active in Strategic Studies & Military History study spaces.
Keep calling it out to drive change.
Good way to start the morning: great review in
@WSJ
of my new book To Rule the Waves:
Looking forward to talking about it with the always insightful
@eosnos
next week!
Buy links here:
And huge thanks to the Canadian team - Dom Barton,
@bunkaeh
,
@JustinTrudeau
and all who worked behind the scenes with the White House to make this happen
I recently sat down with 7 of the smartest experts on Japan to discuss how Tokyo will deal with an increasingly assertive China and respond to the intensifying US-China rivalry. Here’s what they had to say:
We're going to start seeing more of this: coalitions of countries moving ahead on plans for effective governance of major issues with neither the US nor China in the agreement.
Contemporary American policy on multilateralism is summed up in two concepts: multilateral institutions don't matter; and we should go to the mat to stop China from penetrating them. 😟
With the
#AUKUS
announcement, all things Asian naval are much in the news. For defense and science editors looking to write/commission pieces that go beyond the diplomatic fracas, some key resources follow.
The geopolitics of the
#worldcup
- old order disrupted by new challengers; Russia playing above its class; China biding its time offstage; America absent.
As
@BrookingsInst
heads to NYC next week for
#UNGA74
, my colleagues Jeff Feltman,
@MorelandBW
and I wrote about why multilateral institutions like the UN must adapt to new geopolitical realities:
And my guess: neither does he. So much commentary about leaders’ intent misses the point that many/most are tactical and opportunistic, constantly re-evaluating their options and constraints.
If you’re interested in
#globalization
, and how it’s driving geopolitical tensions, check out the kind review of my book at the New York Journal of Books:
You can get a copy here: )
In his book, To Rule the Waves,
@brucebrookings
explains how trade and supply chains rely on the world’s oceans and how there is growing competition for these avenues. Learn more about what’s really happening on our seas and what it means for the future:
Problem is, it took us 4+ decades to de-industrialize at this scale, and will take at least 1 perhaps 2 to reverse; and we don’t have that kind of time in the western Pacific. We need as interim to draw in industrial capabilities from allies as well as national measures
To address many of our military deficiencies, we need to re-industrialize our economy. We need a lot more skilled industrial workers and a larger industrial base.
There are other good reasons to for this, but national security is a compelling and potent one.
Deal on grain shipment from Ukr ports a rare sliver of light. Room for trouble in implementation, but for now a relief. It highlights: how dependent we are on sea-based flows; that R still cares about its reputation in the non-Western world; and UN mediation can still help.
I interviewed 10 of the smartest experts on geopolitics in the Middle East. Our discussion ranges from the decline of U.S. influence to the key regional rivalries to energy politics and beyond:
For those governments adopting a posture of "restraint" vis-a-vis Russia/Ukraine: what if we could do a trial run? What if Russia were to invade part of eastern Ukraine, and occupy/annex another part (say, for sake of argument, Crimea.) 1/n
So should
@HawleyMO
. Since they won’t, it’s up to the rest of us to ensure this dogs the rest of their careers - and the sycophants and ‘policy advisors’ who chose to genuflect to them.
As summer winds down, strongly suggest you read "Aftershocks" by
@thomaswright08
and Colin Kahl. Insightful and highly readable account of the geopolitics of Covid. Spoiler alert: having two giants use a pandemic as fodder for political rivalry is...bad.
This is wrong. Lack of elite accountability is the core problem of American democracy. If organizing armed sedition isn’t where we draw the line, there’s no line at all...
The lead story on the news tonight should have been
@JoeBiden
's plan to deal w covid/boost the economy. Instead, it was Trump. Dont get me wrong: impeachment is 100% warranted. But those pushing it are doing Biden &
@KamalaHarris
no favor. The costs will outweigh any benefits.
We at Brookings are undertaking a major initiative to study China’s activities in key parts of the world and on critical issues like tech and climate. Our first tranche of research is online today, check it out:
#GlobalChina
Exactly. Implementing an important operational provision of the Beijing-Moscow joint statement from the Olympics meeting. Which also lends substantial credence to the notion that Putin told Xi what was coming and Xi gave him a green light
Tooze is right: the US can’t make this decision alone; but it’s also true that if China & the US came to terms, they could easily impose their decision on everyone else.
(Actually, they in fact already are agreed on terms: each side will make “best efforts.” Behold the results.)
To all my friends, activists, journalists and democracy lovers in
#Burma
#Myanmar
, stay safe, stay strong & know that the world is watching and cheering for you.
This one is for
@gCaptain
@johnkonrad
— the US American Victory, merchant marine ship from WWII still in fine form in the Port of Tampa — and check out the color scheme….
So there’s a dilemma: does the West pay for China’s trade security? Or partially facilitate China’s growing global naval reach? The contradictions between our geo-economic and geo-political realities are growing… 5/5
There’s every reason for China to protect shipping through Suez — much of it is carrying goods from Chinese ports. China is — by far — the world’s most important sea-based trade hub. But the US doesn’t much want China becoming a global naval power. 4/x
Always a pleasure to be in India; this time with the dynamic
@BrookingsIndia
team. Interesting to watch India debate where to situate itself in the changing geopolitical landscape
On Monday, I'll join
@SusanaMalcorra
and the Foreign Ministers of Spain and Sweden to discuss our forthcoming report on 'Competing for Order' -- our report documents the roots and present features of the 'long crisis of multilateralism'.
With all the focus now on Pakistan, good time to re-up this paper on Pakistani 'democracy': The election of Imran Khan in Pakistan represents an inflection point for the country’s democracy,
@MadihaAfzal
explains:
#DemocracyAndDisorder
A self-confident, focused
@ABaerbock
hits exactly the right tone in press conference after meeting with Lavrov.
Offers cooperation based on principles of UN Charter, Helsinki Accords & Paris Charter. Speaks out against threats against Ukraine, treatment of Navalny & Memorial.
@tweeter_anita
@DalrympleWill
I’ve come late to this party, but let me echo all that’s been said about what a treat it is. The sessions with
@simonmontefiore
were a particular treat, but the entire intellectual smorgasbord is sumptuous. 1/2
In todays
@EmpirePodUK
with me and
@DalrympleWill
we discuss Russia seizing the centre of the world. As the other European empires were consolidating their holdings in Asia, Russia took 1.5million square miles of territory. 1/4
27 Houthi strikes on global shipping in the Red Sea; a month of defensive actions; direct attacks on an American merchant marine ship. The US responds — and we are “launching a war”….got it…
We will look back on this political moment — if we get through it, which I believe we will — and the biggest regret will be the issues we weren’t focused on — climate will be at the top of the list
@brucebrookings
Yes, lots of other pressing issues now, but climate change is intruding and crowding its way on to the agenda even now, whether we like it or not.
I examine this in “To Rule the Waves”. The long blockage of the Suez actually gave rise to innovation in bulk shipping to cope with the cost of the longer route. But trade as a % of GDP was much less then than now
@DefenceFreedom
@GrayConnolly
@GrayConnolly
If the Suez Canal transit is so extremely valuable, why aren't the transit fees higher to skim off the economic rent for Egypt?
It was closed in 1967-1975. Where's the economic crisis of 1967/1968 onwards?
You may claim the canal is most important, but where's the evidence?
@MichaelShurkin
Actually both the UK Royal Navy and France's Marine Nationale have already participated in ops to defend shipping against Houthi attacks. Worth noting that China has a base in Djibouti opening onto these waters -- they certainly have the option to help.
There are two — and only two — options here: either he lied about visiting wounded troops; or he visited wounded troops while infected with a highly contagious disease.
My assessment from a distance: Houthi attacks will continue, with home degraded effectiveness; rhetoric and threats will escalate; US/UK strikes will remain calibrated and limited; and broader escalation dynamics will be modest.
For now.
But watch this space….
5/5
Tonight UK jets from Cyprus and US ships and submarines operating in the Red Sea, hit Houthi radar, launch, and flight targets in Yemen. They have a UNSC resolution as legal grounding, and logistics and intelligence support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and Netherlands. 1/x
Good day for democracies standing up for real strategy: first EU’s Borrell blockbuster speech, now Canada’s DPM Freeland laying out powerful case for democracies to engage in deep cooperation to retool the dynamics of economic order
@cafreeland
@BrookingsInst
@JosepBorrellF
Many thanks to Nature magazine for picking To Rule the Waves as one of the best 5 science books of the week. "Ocean politics, DNA history and the climate experiment: Books in brief"
@Nature
"The tension at issue does not reveal chiasmus as a surrogate for dialectics within cultural materialism but is nevertheless a heuristic method regarding a constitutive reversal in the nature of the state that, as an organic composite, now threatens to recolonize the decolonized"
We are watching in real time as the international order is being transformed by the new contest for seapower. Houthis/Iran, Russian subs in the Baltic and Irish Seas, Russia v Ukraine in Black Sea, Chinese PLAN in the Western Pacific. 1/2
My colleague
@ConStelz
has penned a great new essay for
@BrookingsFP
, writing that the ultimate lesson of 1989 is that history was never linear or inevitable:
#FPEssay
The effects of the NotPetya attack in 2017 on commercial maritime traffic cost more than all piracy worldwide combined. Guessing this one is going to be pretty pricey too.... Time for a more comprehensive approach to maritime security.
#seapower
Australian port operator hit by cyber-attack says cargo may be stranded for ‘days’.
DP World pulls plug on its internet connection after finding hackers inside its systems.
As the situation in the Red Sea intensified, some thoughts on the wider pattern of geopolitical conflict spilling into the seas. Globalization is in the crossfire.
#RedSea
TPP has strongest intellectual property protections yet negotiated, gave the US a major advantage -- a good way to protect US on IP would be to rejoin TPP...
🧵 I'm often told on Twitter to "stick to my lane" (presumably entertain all y'all w geopolitics)
1. My account is my journey; I travel on whichever lane I want. I'm grateful to those of you who choose to come along, but it's your right to unfollow if you don't like my lane.