Arzan Tarapore @arzandc Twitter profile

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Arzan Tarapore

21 days

In my latest, for @ussc , I spotlight the shifting military balance in the Indian Ocean. China will soon be able to exercise sea denial - an unprecedented threat to India (& its partners, Aus & US). How is India responding? (1/4)

Engaging with reality in the Indian Ocean

www.ussc.edu.au

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

A famous @TIME cover story in 1989 declared India was "determinedly transforming itself into a regional superpower." Some really interesting nuggets on how the west saw India's rise then. A lot has changed. A lot hasn't. (1/n)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

1 year

I am bamboozled by these perennial straw man arguments. As if India somehow *shouldnt* see the world differently?

Michael Clarke

@meclarke114

1 year

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

1 year

In my latest, I argue the US bet on India is fundamentally sound. Tellis was right: India won't fight alongside US in a Taiwan war. But there are other ways a US-India strategic partnership can contribute meaningfully to a free & open Indo-Pacific. (1/4)

America’s Best Bet in the Indo-Pacific

How Washington and New Delhi can contain a rising China

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

1 year

Jaishankar was right.

POLITICOEurope

@POLITICOEurope

1 year

"The great risk” Europe faces is getting "caught up in crises that are not ours," says Emmanuel Macron. In an exclusive interview aboard his plane, the French president explained why he wants Europe to reduce its dependency on the US 👇

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

7 months

Very excited to soon teach a new course at Stanford, called "India in the Indo-Pacific." This course is the first on Indian foreign and defense policy offered at Stanford in some years. I developed it, & the draft syllabus is here - all feedback welcome.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

1 year

Hope the Indian journalist profession, rather than cheering on official information operations, is learning how to critically appraise & hold accountable the natsec establishment.

Rahul Kanwal

@rahulkanwal

1 year

Hope the Indian armed forces are observing the Israel Defence Forces spokespersons give interviews, shooting demos, making Insta reels and conveying their country’s point of view to the world. Each spokesperson seems like a trained video presenter and producer. Conflict isn’t

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

3 years

In a new paper for @LowyInstitute , I examine the long-term implications of the Ladakh crisis for India's defence policy & strategic competition w/China. Paper is here: Thread w/key points follows... (1/7)

The Crisis after the Crisis: How Ladakh will Shape India’s Competition with China

The border crisis in Ladakh may end in war or peace — or it may never end.

www.lowyinstitute.org

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

At least as noteworthy, India in the 1980s had a very active military. In the article's recent past, Indian forces had seized Siachen, faced off vs China at Sumdorong Chu, muscled its way into Sri Lanka, and swiftly intervened in Maldives. (3/n)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

3 years

In my latest essay, I assess the India-Pakistan conventional military balance. Despite India's much larger military, the balance of usable force in most contexts is in fact almost parity. Why? Thread w/key points follows. (1/7)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

The article gives the last word to Steve Cohen: "an India that is a regional bully threatening China or Pakistan would not be in American interests." So, yeah, some things do change - a lot. Link to full text: (8/8)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

This was written in the midst of Sundarji-era capability improvements. The trend-lines looked impressive: Army expansion, new Navy port, nuclear program, & world's biggest arms importer. And this was *before* the mania of the post-liberalization econ boom. (2/n)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

.⁦ @SushantSin ⁩ reports 3 PLA incursions *in Galwan area* (not including elsewhere along LAC, like Pangong, Sikkim). Each incursion about 2-3km into Indian territory, and encamped. Delhi now sees this as “unprecedented.”

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

11 months

Did nuclear deterrence keep the Kargil war limited? In my latest research, I argue India was restrained for other reasons, and those reasons no longer apply. In the next conflict, India won't be as restrained, & deterrence will be really tested.

Conditional restraint: Why the India-Pakistan Kargil War is not a case of nuclear deterrence

In the 1999 Kargil War, India defended its territory from a Pakistani incursion but chose not to expand the war with counter-attacks onto Pakistan soil. But in a future conflict India may be encour...

thebulletin.org

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

Most analysts agreed, "India has pulled well ahead of its archfoe [Pakistan]." In fact, it looked like it had slid into its new role as "regional policeman." The US welcomed this. Reagan called the Maldives intervention a "valuable contribution." (4/n)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

11 months

My take: India must learn from Israel's strategic failure. The policy of periodically attriting enemies, while ignoring politics - the "cult of operational superiority" - has collapsed. Indian policy towards nuclear-armed Pakistan also currently ignores politics, to its peril.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

Thrilled to announce my latest, from @CarnegieIndia : "Rethink doctrine or risk irrelevance." BLUF: Indian Army's doctrine hasn't kept pace with major strategic changes, rendering Army less relevant as a tool of statecraft. Key points follow: (1/7)

The Army in Indian Military Strategy: Rethink Doctrine or Risk Irrelevance

The Indian Army’s prevailing doctrine leaves the military with two main choices: do nothing or risk wars it cannot win. The Indian Army needs to rethink its use of force to meet today’s new challen...

carnegieendowment.org

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

In a new op-ed for @the_hindu , I argue that China has in effect altered the LAC (for now) in large part because the Indian Army was not postured for new types of security threats. This applies the findings from my recent @CarnegieIndia paper... (1/4)

Rethinking the defence doctrine

The ongoing border crisis with China calls for a strategic shift from punitive retaliation to prevention

www.thehindu.com

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

Interestingly, despite India's own threat perceptions, this article asserts China presented no real threat. [Remember, this is April 1989, months before Tiananmen, when an erstwhile democracy movement was bubbling in Beijing.] So even China wont stand in India's way. (5/n)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

1 year

Excited to announce I have joined @ASPI_org as a non-resident senior fellow. Australia is stepping up with a more robust regional security role, & a more productive relationship w/India - and I’m honored to support that big evolution.

Dr Arzan Tarapore

Arzan Tarapore is a research scholar at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, and a senior non-resident fellow at ASPI. His research focuses on military strategy,...

www.aspi.org.au

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

3 months

In today’s @the_hindu I lay out 5 benefits India would gain from publishing a National Security Strategy. Without one, Indian policy will remain reactive, disjointed, and unaccountable.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

1 year

It’s true, India isn’t Sweden. But nor is America. The US record on liberal democratic values in recent decades has been dismal. Let’s stop pretending other countries have to meet American standards.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

5 years

India is planning to build its biggest container port, which is planned to be among the world's top 10. Its current biggest, JNPT just outside Bombay, is only the 28th busiest in the world (7 of the top 10 are in China).

Sagarmala: Construction Of Rs 65,545 Mega-Container Port At Maharashtra's Wadhavan To Begin This...

Maharashtra will get another huge port built at a cost of around Rs 65,545 crore at Wadhavan, near Dahanu in Palghar district on the Gujarat border, catapulting India among countries with top 10...

indiainfrahub.com

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

7 months

What can India do to help deter an attack on Taiwan? We can assume India won't fight, but in my latest for @ASPI_org , I argue it can still help convince Beijing to defer the military option. I offer 6 types of policy options for Delhi... (1/3)

Deterring an attack on Taiwan: policy options for India and other non-belligerent states

India has a vital role to play in deterring China from unifying Taiwan by military force, a new Australian Strategic Policy Institute report finds, highlighting New Delhi’s significant economic,...

aspi.org.au

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

6 months

In my latest for the Hindu, I argue its in India’s self-interest to help deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. This is an extension of my research on Indian policy options (see below) - but rather than exploring HOW india can deter, today I argue WHY it should.

Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

7 months

What can India do to help deter an attack on Taiwan? We can assume India won't fight, but in my latest for @ASPI_org , I argue it can still help convince Beijing to defer the military option. I offer 6 types of policy options for Delhi... (1/3)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

5 years

Stoked to be starting at Stanford this coming Sept. An honor to join a group of such smart people working on the toughest problems in policy - & especially to help kickstart a new research effort on South Asia. Thanks to all who helped make this happen - you know who you are.

Shorenstein APARC

@StanfordSAPARC

5 years

We're thrilled to share that Indo-Pacific security expert Arzan Tarapore @arzandc has been appointed a research scholar supporting APARC's renewed focus on South Asia, beginning this September. Welcome to APARC and @FSIStanford , Arzan!

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

So the key Q was, "What does India intend to do with all that power?" Despite some remarkable defence coop'n w/US (engines avionics, other help for the fledgling... LCA program!), it remained deeply tied to Soviet military support. Its strategic intentions were unclear. (6/n)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

5 years

India and Pakistan appear to have different priorities.

Asfandyar Mir

@asfandyarmir

5 years

some ratios:

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 months

Modi’s bodyguard theatre is getting over the top. He needs to travel with his own rocket artillery batteries now?

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

More specifically, would a more muscular India pose a threat in the Indian Ocean? "India's growing military machine, meanwhile, has gained the uneasy attention of its neighbors along the rim of the Indian Ocean, like Australia and Indonesia." (7/n)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

3 years

Saleh is not going quietly into the night: "Useless caveats are finished. JOIN THE RESISTANCE." As the phrase goes, "Panjshir is the Afghanistan of Afghanistan."

Mike Martin MP

@ThreshedThought

3 years

Lots of reports like this about a regrouping of various northern alliance warlords. Seems it didn’t take long for the civil war to restart.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

2 years

I really don’t want Indians to die, or Indian interests to suffer, or India to be humiliated - especially at the hands of China. But I fear that’s the only thing that will shake the prideful and the unserious out of their stupor.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

To be clear (since apparently I wasn’t), Cohen wasn’t castigating India. He also said India could be a welcome stabilizing force. The point is not that he was arguing one way or the other, but that there was great uncertainty about India's trajectory. Full quote here: (9/9)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

3 years

These are the most elegant and easy to read maps of the Ladakh crisis that I’ve seen, & I’ve seen many. Made for my @LowyInstitute paper - maps not comprehensive but include key features mentioned in paper. Kudos & thanks @__brodysmith .

Brody Smith

@__brodysmith

3 years

Latest map project. India’s disputed borders with China and Pakistan are a cartographers nightmare. What I learned in the process; or a (ridiculously) brief history:

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

1 year

Canadian investigators are professional, & Trudeau’s made the allegations in parliament - so there is something to this. Suddenly adds a lot of credibility to the idea of a bold new dimension in India’s CT strategy - see also .

The Associated Press

@AP

1 year

BREAKING: Canada expels top Indian diplomat as it investigates whether the Indian government is linked to the assassination of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

I'm not convinced India is a "swing state." India has long been a staunch competitor of China, & will remain so for structural reasons. It may or may not get closer to US (I hope it does); but it sure won't "swing" towards China. For more, see my piece: .

C Uday Bhaskar

@theUdayB

4 years

Review 100 days #IndiaChinaBorderTension long haul ahead as winter approaches/ relevance of India as swing-state @ShivshankaMenon @arunp2810 @EvanFeigenbaum @jmohanmalik @Cold_Peace_ @TakshashilaInst @SAMonitor @IPCSNewDelhi @eastasiaforum @akshatco

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

3 years

I'm flummoxed by this. I get that @ForeignAffairs sees policy & prestige value in hosting other govt perspectives, but at what point does it draw the line at misinformation? Doesnt it also have a responsibility to the public?

Foreign Affairs

@ForeignAffairs

3 years

“Apart from the Afghan people, Pakistan has been the greatest victim of the wars in Afghanistan.” Read @YusufMoeed , Pakistan’s national security adviser, on why the international community must engage with the new Taliban government.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

1 month

Fascinating. Arms exports have been a big priority for Modi, & its yielding results. The US is the biggest customer - as supply chains become enmeshed, US-India defense cooperation is gradually becoming irreversible.

Snehesh Alex Philip

@sneheshphilip

1 month

Yes, India’s #defence exports are booming, but guess who’s the biggest importer And guess who is the biggest exporter Read to see if your guess is right

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

I agree a US-India alliance is a chimera. But, devil's advocate, there's another way to see this: India already, some time back, picked "the US's" side in Indo-Pac competition. Things is, the "side" is not as coherent or as US-led as Cold War analogies suggest... (1/n)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

This by @ajaishukla is one of the boldest, most original ideas I've seen re Ladakh crisis. No historical analogy is perfect, but one of the biggest discrepancies, I'd say, is that India's chances of tactical success are smaller than Egypt's were. (1/4)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

2 years

What is the Quad doing, & how important is India's role? My latest article explains the Quad's strategic logic - what its trying to do, & how - and argues that India's recent strategic adjustment was the key to enabling that. Key points follow. (1/7)

Zone balancing: India and the Quad's new strategic logic

This article introduces the concept of ‘zone balancing’ to explain India's responses to the rise of China. Spurred largely by Indian policy adjustments sin

academic.oup.com

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

Ashley Tellis, a key architect of US policy towards India, has doubts that India can summon the economic & military wherewithal to compete w/China. He's even more pessimistic about the substance of the partnership w/US. Find out why:

Is India Losing?: A Conversation with Ashley Tellis

In the final installment of the South Asia Initiative's Fall 2020 colloquium series, Ashley J. Tellis joins Arzan Tarapore for a broad discussion of India's ...

www.youtube.com

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

Indian Army occupies high-ground features, reportedly as bargaining leverage against China. Except, these features are on its *own* side of LAC. Not an especially strong bargaining position when your offer is to retreat from your own territory. (1/2)

Snehesh Alex Philip

@sneheshphilip

4 years

Indian Army’s new moves in Ladakh hope to push #China to negotiate and step back. My colleague @NayanimaBasu and I report

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

What's the strategic effect of the LAC crisis? Some say India/US will move closer; tho EAM Jaishankar said no to alliances. I examine effect of LAC crisis on strategic competition w/China, in my latest @east_asia_forum , here: . My key points...(1/5)

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

5 years

How should India respond to the next terrorist attack from Pakistan? A strategy focused on military punishment won’t work. India should rebalance its strategy, w/other lines of effort: denial, shaping, & resilience. See my latest, in @the_hindu (1/2)

Rebalancing counterterrorism

As Israel shows, an effective strategy must be comprehensive

www.thehindu.com

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

Some analysts call for India to flex its muscles & punish China in the Indian Ocean. They're wrong. My latest short piece argues that India & its partners should instead prioritise a denial strategy, to counter the growing risk of Chinese coercion.

India should prioritise a denial strategy in the Indian Ocean

The stand-off with China in the Himalayas has raised a broader debate about India’s strategic outlook.

www.lowyinstitute.org

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

1 year

What is this facile distinction? As if being a developing country means you cannot believe in freedom of navigation. What is the “free and open Indo Pacific” if not a set of congruent interests shared by US, Aus, Japan, and India together?

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

2 years

Winding up my trip to Ladakh - a heartstoppingly beautiful place. The stuff of fairytales.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

Tell me again Australia is on the fence. New defence acquisitions to target China; supplied by and integrated with the US. Not the actions of a hedging state.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

3 years

In my latest piece, for @ASPI_org , I assess the risk of a China-India conflict. I argue one of its incidental victims could be the Quad. Paper is here: Precis is here: Key points follow... (1/6)

India, China and the Quad’s defining test | The Strategist

The Quad is stronger than ever. The informal ‘minilateral’ grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the United States has in the past year held its first stand-alone ministerial meeting and its first...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

3 months

Quite a story of strategic autonomy: procuring ship engines from Ukraine, then sending them to a Russian shipyard for assembly into the new frigate.

Snehesh Alex Philip

@sneheshphilip

3 months

India to finally get its new stealth frigate ‘Tushil’ and in September Indian Navy crew of about 200 carrying out acceptance trials in #Russia The next frigate to be delivered early next year

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

3 years

A distant power generously building transport infrastructure from the interior of Africa to the coast. I wonder why.

Samuel Ramani

@SamRamani2

3 years

This map shows China's railway construction plans in Africa.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

I’ve officially started work at Stanford (though, for now, from Sydney). It’s a huge honour and very exciting to be part of the impressive @StanfordSAPARC team. Let’s get to work!

Shorenstein APARC

@StanfordSAPARC

4 years

We are thrilled to welcome Indo-Pacific security expert @arzandc as a research scholar at APARC! Read our Q&A to learn more about his insights into current U.S.-China-India relations and his goals for revamping APARC's South Asia research initiative ⬇️

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

2 years

India reminds Europe that its been facing a destabilizing revisionist for years. Difference is, Asia's revisionist has not provoked the same unified resistance. Maybe that should change *before* Asian cities are razed.

Thorsten Benner

@thorstenbenner

2 years

„We‘ve been hearing a lot of arguments from 🇪🇺that 🇺🇦 should be wake-up call also for Asia since things like his could also happen in Asia. Guess what, things have been happening in Asia” & maybe 🇪🇺didn’t pay attention. @DrSJaishankar serving it right back. #Raisina2022

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@arzandc

1 year

Just when you thought the defense relationship had hit a plateau, behold, the biggest milestone since the civil-nuclear deal.

Sameer P. Lalwani

@splalwani

1 year

“This is more tech transfer than the US has ever authorised. We are breaking through into new frontiers” Detailed piece on the GE jet engine deal with India by @prashantktm where an anonymous source, @Cold_Peace_ , and I are quoted. cc @USIP

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@arzandc

2 years

Simple but powerful idea. DC types often get frustrated with Indian policy because they see it as a quasi-ally, an adjunct, a member (or not) of the US camp. In fact Delhi sees itself as - and is - an independent pole, albeit w/many overlapping interests, in multipolar Asia.

Happymon Jacob

@HappymonJacob

2 years

From my @the_hindu piece "Indian policymakers inherently think of India as a pole in the international system. So those wishing to work with India must learn to deal with the ‘India pole’. Don't ask India “whose side are you on?” but “what is your side?”.

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@arzandc

2 years

Can the Quad & AUKUS deter China? ANU & Stanford, led by @BrendanKTaylor , put together a global set of experts to start looking at this Q: @osmastro @DEricSayers @EvanLaksmana @VivianChang36 @tanvi_madan @K__2010 . See the collection of essays here: .

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@arzandc

3 years

The Establishment that scolds India for venality now is the same one that rejoiced after Galwan because India was apparently finally joining America's cold war. It isn't, & it wasn't. Take India on its own terms, as a power w/its own interests, not as an adjunct of US policy.

Tanvi Madan

@tanvi_madan

3 years

🧵 I get people saying they are upset/disappointed by India's approach to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. What I don't get is people – esp those who claim to be India experts – saying they are surprised by it. Here's how you might be less surprised about Indian foreign policy 1/

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@arzandc

2 months

Unsurprisingly the best thing to read on Bangladesh is from @MohanCRaja . Big powers have trouble seeing others on their own terms, but India must.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

2 years

My latest publication is a labor of love - drafted 5yrs ago - on intelligence analysis tradecraft. It critiques the orthodoxy of keeping int & policy at arm's length, which I argue contributed to US int failure in 1979 Iranian revolution. Key points: (1/6)

The view from somewhere: lessons from the intelligence failure in Iran

Why do intelligence estimates sometimes fail to prepare policymakers for change? Some explanations suggest the fault lies with insufficient data collection, weak analysis, or unreceptive audiences....

www.tandfonline.com

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@arzandc

4 years

Don't have enough to worry about? Check this out - on the vulnerability of submarine cables that carry the world's critical data. Also check out one of this piece's sources, the amazing interactive maps at . Here are the cables in the Indo-Pacific:

Chris Biggers

@CSBiggers

4 years

The threat to world’s communications backbone – the vulnerability of undersea cables

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

6 years

Menon urges India to adopt its own "hide & bide" strategy: “India should look inward, build capacity, build internal cohesion, avoid all external entanglements. All rising powers have kept their heads down,”

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

5 months

Hahaha. If the Five Eyes were really bent on “defanging” RAW, you really think a WaPo scoop is how they’d do it?

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@arzandc

3 years

Only just watched this, w/ @ShivshankaMenon @VGokhale59 @BajpaiKanti , expertly moderated by @NarangVipin . Its a real humdinger - lots & lots of great insights. A few highlights for me, thread follows.

The Past & Future of India China Relations

Join Kanti Prasad Bajpai, Vijay Gokhal, and Shivshankar Menon to discuss relations between China and India.Vijay Gokhale is a nonresident senior fellow at Ca...

www.youtube.com

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@arzandc

3 years

My core argument on AUKUS is out. Subs are good & imp, but the biggest story is radical integration of leading edge defence tech (even beyond nuc propulsion). This is a product of - & deepens - the FVEY int alliance. (1/3)

AUKUS is deeper than just submarines

Beyond subs, AUKUS seeks to win the technology competition with China by pooling resources and integrating supply chains for defence research and development

eastasiaforum.org

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

2 years

I would flip this. It’s hard to cultivate confidence when seniors rely on status rather than rigor; when they privilege their voice over mentoring; when there’s too much Ethos, not enough Logos.

Happymon Jacob

@HappymonJacob

2 years

One of the major reasons why Indian strategic thinking is often stale and not dynamic enough is because the younger generation is not confident of challenging the old guard.

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

6 years

In my latest piece @warontherocks , I look at the latest India-Pak crisis - specifically, how it will shape the next one. I welcome comments. Key points are as follows:

Balakot, Deterrence, and Risk: How This India-Pakistan Crisis Will Shape the Next

The India-Pakistan crisis seems to have peaked. The two sides continue to trade intermittent small-arms and artillery fire across the Line of Control that

warontherocks.com

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Arzan Tarapore

@arzandc

4 years

Thrilled to announce my latest, in a bumper special issue of @TWQgw on the Indo-Pacific. BLUF: US, India, & partners must craft a more focused & realistic strategy to manage risks of PLA expansion in Indian Ocean region. Key points follow: (1/6)

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@arzandc

1 year

Three ways I highlight in this piece: combined military posture in eastern IOR; niche mil capabilities for denial against PLA; and diplomatic coordination, esp in Global South. These affordable steps can add serious deterrent value. (2/4)

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@arzandc

1 year

The most eyebrow-raising part is this strange juxtaposition. Aus/US pursue pro-India policies, just as Indian-origin people rise to influence? Is this some thinly veiled dual loyalty calumny? Why point out Tellis’ Indian origins?

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@arzandc

1 year

Clinical take-down of bad history here. Biggest take-away: the simple storyline of “we turned to the Sovs because the west was flaky” is way too facile, not supported by the facts. Also good tip for young players: don’t rely on single sources, esp motivated ones.

Angad Singh

@zone5aviation

1 year

Disappointing inaccuracies litter this entire thread (and by extension, Gundevia’s memoirs). Since it’s mil procurement and history, and I’m in limbo between flights, I’m going to wade in here…

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@arzandc

2 years

This is just unnecessary taunting. My son has already finished his book manuscript.

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@arzandc

3 years

We have a bunch of assumptions about the Indian Ocean region that need to be constantly revisited. In @NBRnews Asia Policy journal, we have a roundtable that examines IOR strategic futures, to test those assumptions. Thread of key points follows...(1/8)

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@arzandc

2 years

Agnipath certainly merits plenty of debate. But the hot take that it’ll create a cadre of lethal (& prospectless) youth roaming the streets is batty.

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@arzandc

6 years

The interviewer’s blinking disbelief is gold.

Sadanand Dhume

@dhume

6 years

Pakistan Foreign Minister @SMQureshiPTI can’t seem to open his mouth without putting his foot in it. Admits on TV that “people over here” are in touch with leadership of proscribed terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed.

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@arzandc

4 years

I have an explainer out in WaPo's @monkeycageblog on the latest phase of the LAC crisis. My key point: it'll be tough for India to avoid a negative outcome, with or without war. (1/2)

Analysis | India and China are taking new risks along their border. It will be hard to restore...

Will diplomacy help defuse the latest tensions?

www.washingtonpost.com

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@arzandc

3 years

That's a wrap. @StanfordSAPARC South Asia initiative hosted 8 webinars in 2020-21, w/utterly stellar experts lending their insights. Here's a thread: 1. Most recently, fmr NSA @ShivshankaMenon 's tour d'horizon on the US-India partnership:

What Does India Want from a Partnership? A Conversation with Shivsh...

Exactly what kind of partnership does India seek with the United States? India claims to prize strategic autonomy, but it has also built an unprecedented par...

www.youtube.com

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@arzandc

4 years

The Quad is "ill-defined and lacks a clear mandate." Yes, and that's a *strength,* not a weakness. This piece misunderstands NATO, misunderstands the Quad, and misunderstands the nature of the China challenge.

TIME

@TIME

4 years

"The Quad, an alliance between the U.S., Australia, Japan and India, is the centerpiece of President Biden's Asia play. But it is ill-defined and lacks a clear mandate," writes Debasish Roy Chowdhury

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@arzandc

2 years

Great reporting here. India racing to plug holes in the defensive line in eastern sector of LAC. It’s reassigned 2x Divisions from COIN to border defence; & continues building roads & cell towers. But in RALP, foot patrols still take a week (!) to reach LAC.

Amrita Nayak

@AmritaNayak3

2 years

After Tawang, Infra Construction Gathers Pace in Eastern Arunachal as Army Puts Full Focus on LAC and increasingly pulls out of CI duties in a reorientation in the north east. So far, the focus has remained primarily on Tawang. My report:

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@arzandc

3 years

AUUKUS is a big deal - a step change deepening of the alliance. Its clear that emerging tech is a key field of competition w/China, & deepening coop among allies on this specifically is important. (1/9)

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@arzandc

6 years

US strategy calculates a rising India will help counter-balance China. But how? Some ideas, like challenging China on their land border, won’t work. I argue in @lawfareblog that building strategic leverage in IOR is viable & complements US goals:

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@arzandc

3 years

Right now, there are 12x replies to this tweet extolling a Quad get-together in Washington. They all -- every single one -- is expressing hostility towards the US for the reported withholding of vaccine raw materials.

Taranjit Singh Sandhu

@SandhuTaranjitS

3 years

Quad Ambassadors dinner today w/ leadership of @HouseForeign , @HouseForeignGOP & Subcommittee Asia @RepGregoryMeeks @RepMcCaul @RepBera @RepSteveChabot Thank you Amb Tomita @JapanEmbDC for hosting!

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@arzandc

1 year

Reasonable people say we (US, India, others) should pursue guardrails in relations w/China. Here’s why that won’t work. China deliberately generates risk as a tool of policy. It’s not interested in guardrails. See article/thread below.

james crabtree

@jamescrabtree

1 year

Richard Maude on excellent form explaining why China won’t engage on "guardrails" — and thus that "competition with guardrails" ain't going to work. Says AUS + SEA nations et al to call China out on this. It's behind the paywall. Some quotes 🧵

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@arzandc

2 years

"And on Friday we've got the boss going to a bulldozer factory." "Bulldozers? Are you sure, after the news this week?" "Umm, yeah, nah, it'll be fine. Too late to change the itinerary now. Just make sure he doesn't climb into one."

ANI

@ANI

2 years

#WATCH UK PM Boris Johnson along with Gujarat CM Bhupendra Patel visits JCB factory at Halol GIDC, Panchmahal in Gujarat (Source: UK Pool)

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@arzandc

2 years

So long, Bombay. What a wondrous city.

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@arzandc

3 years

Afghanistan’s spy chief indulges in some historically-informed hi-caliber trolling.

Amrullah Saleh

@AmrullahSaleh2

3 years

We don't have such a picture in our history and won't ever have. Yes, yesterday I flinched for a friction of a second as a rocket flew above & landed few meters away. Dear Pak twitter attackers, Talibn & terrorism won't heal the trauma of this picture. Find other ways.

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@arzandc

6 years

. @CChristineFair did some friggin cool fieldwork & came back w/this. Chabahar port & Rte 606 offer Afg a way to reduce dependence on Pak. Longer term, it offers India an opportunity to build on its latent influence in Central Asia. Really great reporting:

The All-New Great Game

Afghanistan was once dependent on Pakistan, it no longer is. Between 2012 and 2016, Afghan imports from Iran totalled $1.3 billion against $1.2 billion from Pakistan and $1.1 billion from China

www.firstpost.com

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@arzandc

3 years

Why is there a distorted view in India of Australia’s strategic posture? Because of silly clickbait like this. No, Aus is emphatically not open to China being “in the Quad.” No one said that.

Nayanima Basu

@NayanimaBasu

3 years

Australia is open to having China as a “partner” in the Quad and it is “not in the containment club” when it comes to dealing with Beijing, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Thursday. I report ⁦ @ThePrintIndia ⁩

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@arzandc

4 years

Is India losing? I spoke this week w/Ashley Tellis, on the India-China strategic competition. We examined the fundamentals of the rivalry, incl India's use of deterrence, its prospects for balancing China, & outlook for 2021. Check it out here:

Is India Losing?: A Conversation with Ashley Tellis

In the final installment of the South Asia Initiative's Fall 2020 colloquium series, Ashley J. Tellis joins Arzan Tarapore for a broad discussion of India's ...

www.youtube.com

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@arzandc

3 years

India is being courted. By the US, as well as Japan, Aus, ...& China. Hopefully this moment is a pivot, allowing India scope to move away from dependence on Russia.

Daniel Markey

@MarkeyDaniel

3 years

"Donald Lu and senior US diplomat Victoria Nuland... have over the past two days met Jaishankar and Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla with offers to replace practically everything that India sources from Russia."

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@arzandc

5 years

India mulling letting Aus into Malabar - follows elevation of Quad to ministerial level. To what should we attribute India’s more forward-leaning approach? What Chinese moves have threatened it? Or what changed in Delhi?

Rajat Pandit

@rajatpTOI

5 years

India may invite Australia for the #Malabar exercise with US & Japan in the Bay of Bengal this year. If that happens, it will mark the first time the #Quad countries will come together for the high-voltage naval combat manoeuvers after a gap of 13 years!

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@arzandc

3 years

Genuinely perplexed by this article. The reinforcements do not signal a shift to offensive posture - that's always been the doctrine, these reinforcements are largely defensive, & certainly machine guns do not constitute offensive capabilities!

Collin Koh 🇸🇬🇺🇦

@CollinSLKoh

3 years

"India has redirected at least 50,000 additional troops to its border with China in a historic shift toward an offensive military posture against the world’s second-biggest economy."

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@arzandc

1 year

To be clear, this not a sanguine or celebratory take. India’s constraints are tight, & limits to the US-India partnership are real. I dont tackle values, trade, tech, etc. That’s why the recommendations are affordable & incremental, not transformational. (3/4)

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@arzandc

3 years

The strategic fantasy of an inert adversary.

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@arzandc

3 years

The effects of the Taliban takeover will go beyond Afg's borders - what does it mean for the region? Learn from @ahmadjavid @CChristineFair @PaliwalAvi in @StanfordSAPARC South Asia Initiative's 1st event of the new academic year, next week. Register:

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@arzandc

3 years

In this paper I argue that, as bad as the Ladakh crisis has been for India, what comes after will probably be worse. Take a look, tell me what you think:

The Crisis after the Crisis: How Ladakh will Shape India’s Competition with China

The border crisis in Ladakh may end in war or peace — or it may never end.

www.lowyinstitute.org

The Lowy Institute

@LowyInstitute

3 years

"As a result of the Ladakh crisis, India faces a new strategic reality in which China is a clear and abiding adversary." @arzandc writes the latest Lowy Institute Analysis.

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@arzandc

5 years

They’ve dropped the “Quad” nomenclature so now it’s just a Bunch of Countries Sitting Around Talking.

Philip Green OAM

@AusHCIndia

5 years

Australia-India-Japan-United States Consultations - Statement by Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade ⁦ @MEAIndia ⁩

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@arzandc

2 years

India here I come!

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@arzandc

3 years

In my recent @LowyInstitute paper I argued China got away w/relatively light costs from Ladakh. It’s biggest concern was threat of rupture in broader relations w/India (esp trade & investment) ...& this threat was largely not realized. From today’s @TheIndiaCable :

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@arzandc

4 years

Is US national security strategy based on realist or liberal theory? Yes.

Paul Poast

@ProfPaulPoast

4 years

The @WhiteHouse released an "Interim National Security Strategic Guidance" this week. After reading it, I'm sure international relations scholars will go.....hmmmmmm 🤔 [THREAD]

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