2024 Market Predictions:
- $SPX 5,750 by EOY
- $BTC $60k by end of May and $115k by EOY
- $BTC miners outperform $BTC. I’m giga long $CLSK and $IREN
- $SOL gets no where near the $1k predictions but still does well (I’ve been very bullish $SOL since 2020). Perhaps 300-400.
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@endless_frank
What likely happens in this martingale variant is you keep this up for a while, bleed some Capital, give up, and then the 2% drawdown happens.
@BowTiedBroke
Exactly the reason I’m leaving corporate life. You become a prisoner with no freedoms to enjoy, esp as CFO. Perhaps other C Suite disciplines have a bit more flexibility.
@LPWhisperer
Before you hire anyone to do SEO, you should screen exactly who will be handling and their competence. Request historical performance of sites they’ve handled (before and after).
It’s hand to hand combat and most are bad at it.
I’m a CFO with a CPA that was previously a Controller of large multi billion dollar orgs. I’ve done dozens of QoE’s, 409a’s, audits, etc. and I’d still engage a QoE firm for almost any SMB I acquire.
Stay off the Bogus EBITDA TRAIN 🚂
Broker/CIM EBITDA : $97 million
QoE EBITDA: $73 million
$24 million difference = 7 or 8 Buyers who I prevented from going to the poor house THIS YEAR!!
@adamscochran
@HarmoniusSpirit
It’s not that simple. A lot of those projects have massive overhanging supply that founders and early investors haven’t fully unloaded as the last two unlocks were underwater. Sure, a few will rise from the ashes to new highs, but newer shinier things have mindshare
Assuming Google is materially accurate, the fact that Larry Fink’s net worth is 1.2B is mind blowing. CEO, Chairman, and Founder of the largest asset manager ($10T AUM) in the world.
Seems like it should be multiples higher?
Greyscale wins case vs. SEC
immediate $BTC price action is a lot more muted than I would’ve thought.
15 min later…price moves another 3%.
Turns out Binance and Bybit API’s were overwhelmed and news trading algos didn’t execute trades
Crypto so inefficient still
Excited to see blockchain tech displace existing work flows across a number of industries that are ripe for disruption.
In the next year or two, we'll see CPG/F&B/Retail/Pharma, etc. all begin to explore use cases for blockchain. Many have already started to explore the
1B net inflow 💪
It's the modern day gold rush and it's still early. A lot of capital still don't have access to the ETF's. A few things to be excited for that will accelerate $BTC ETF holdings over the coming years:
1) Quarterly earnings reports revealing corporate treasury
@mikealfred
10x is your conservative target? I’m thinking 3-5x from here, but really hope you’re right. Was already giga long $CLSL and $IREN stock + leaps from much lower, but added $MARA stock +leaps at $18
2024 Market Predictions:
- $SPX 5,750 by EOY
- $BTC $60k by end of May and $115k by EOY
- $BTC miners outperform $BTC. I’m giga long $CLSK and $IREN
- $SOL gets no where near the $1k predictions but still does well (I’ve been very bullish $SOL since 2020). Perhaps 300-400.
-
Some new followers.
For LP, I’m industry agnostic and writing checks up to $250k for pref (avg is 100k). Open to debt (or convertible) as well.
However, I have a strong preference to own and operate and am actively searching in SoCal. Holdco is priority
Markets have priced in a 98% chance that Powell will keep rates flat tomorrow. A slightly dovish tone could be the catalyst the market needs to rally through year end.
If Powell continues to be his hawkish self, we have a ways to go before equities bottom.
Counter Point: Inflows could be orders of magnitude higher than Eric's estimates, but it might take some time.
There has been a flight of capital out of mainland and HK for many years. An important point is that ETF AUM =/ investable capital. The Hang Seng is down ~50% since
Latest on HK spot Bitcoin ETFs: They have been approved to exist but not launch (yet). Rumor has it launching next wk so to not compete w Dubai conf. Don't expect a lot of flows (I saw one estimate of $25b that's insane). We think they'll be lucky to get $500m. Here's why:
1. HK
Not really interested in launching a search fund, but the temptation is there to scoop up distressed assets en masse in a few years.
Seeing SMB’s trading at 6-7x multiples for 2M EBITDA is wild. Unless it’s an excellent strategic rollup, your risk:reward is capped.
I hate calling for market tops bc I’m an optimistic perma bull. However, my working thesis is short term blowoff top into March Opex on the 20th.
NVDA AI conference March 18-21. Semi’s keep the markets chugging into the conference.
Markets dip and base for a few weeks,
SMB Twitter seems so friendly and helpful.
I’m over here thinking that I can’t wait to buy businesses in 2027 from the people buying at 1.15x DSCR.
I don’t care what they say, it’s a zero sum game in some way, shape or form.
The takeaway from this should be that you should have liquid assets set aside before any economic downturn. If you’re trying to find liquidity during, you will be forced to take a haircut.
People have been calling for a recessions for years. IF it ever materializes, expect it to be long and painful.
Liquidity becomes paramount in these conditions. During the GFC, spreads on liquid Corp Bonds widened so much it handicapped liquidity.
1/2
@Eli_Albrecht
Wish I learned this earlier in my career. It works in every conversation where there’s a gap. Salary negotiations, commercial agreements, M&A, OCM, etc
@ClintFiore
“You are not entitled to have Sellers bringing their price down to make your bare-ass-minimum theoretical down payment with max leverage work for you.”
Dude, don’t yell at me in public
@TheLongInvest
No offense, but a double in 10 years? That’s akin to compounding at 7.2%. Opportunity cost of holding this in lieu of other assets could be massive.
The most challenging aspect of search so far is that so much is out of my control.
Inefficient, slow responses or being outright ghosted, misrepresented financials, etc.
It’s official! Last day at my W2 job in 45 days.
Plan is to take some time off, but have already been focused on searching.
1 LOI submitted, which was rejected and seller relisted at a much higher price. Off to a great start 🤣
This is particularly true in Finance/Acctg. CFO and Controller titles are abundant but that shouldn’t discount skillsets and contributions.
Most large company CFO’s couldn’t cut it as a startup or SMB CFO and vice versa. You prob don’t even need a CFO at sub 25M
A challenge in SMBs
Just because I say general manager and you say general manager doesn’t mean we’re talking about the same thing
SMBs can’t always pay a lot but they can give away titles for free.
It’s why you see COOs at companies with $3M in revenue or GMs at $1M revenue
@tradesearcher
I’m a CPA and hesitant to acquire an Acctg firm even though my experience would make it the “easiest” business to run personally. Labor is a real issue. Race to the bottom for billing rates as firms outsource overseas. Profitable bc partners bill a lot of the work
This tweet didn't get any engagement, but if you were paying attention you probably made a boatload of money on the first pump. I certainly did.
$GME
Act 2 happened on May 13th and 14 with $GME running from $17 to $65, but the encore will be even more entertaining. Monitor
Roaring Kitty/Deepfuckingvalue (GameStop)
Feel like a part 2 could transpire in the next 12-18 months. The macro socioeconomic conditions may be ripe. The market is the ultimate arena for the gamification of a rebellious community.
It may take form in another ticker, but look
People have been calling for a recessions for years. IF it ever materializes, expect it to be long and painful.
Liquidity becomes paramount in these conditions. During the GFC, spreads on liquid Corp Bonds widened so much it handicapped liquidity.
1/2
@thejustinwelsh
I’ve received thousands, literally thousands, of cold emails/calls/messages over the years when I was heading finance. I don’t need long winded pleasantries when I know you’re just pitching me something. If it’s something I need or have been searching for and you’re direct about
@Trader_XO
From a pure mcap perspective, agree. Generally think tokens that haven’t gone through a full bull will be the biggest beneficiaries.
SOL is a complete outlier as it’s super polarizing and the community is fervent. It will outperform bc it’s hated by many.
@SMB_Attorney
When you get to $1M/yr, you want $5, then $10, etc. That drive is what got you to $1M in the first place. My wife and therapist have both helped me re-frame what my role really (and what I desire) is for the family.
@sweatystartup
We do something similar but expand it to general weekly roles: Family Chef, Recycling, and Clean Up duty.
Family chef helps with cooking, recycling helps take out and break down boxes, and clean up leads the charge.
Crypto Idea: Someone needs to develop a tool that unstakes across all chains/wallets and can "recall" said assets into your desired wallet & chain.
Half the battle is remembering where everything is. I'm probably staked or restaked on 10+ chains at any given time. Such a pain.
Crypto bros. There are only 2 things you should be thinking about
1) Runes & BTC ecosystem
2) What the next narrative could be
My guess is rotation back to Sol meme’s if the chain stabilizes or Base szn.
@OffshoreAlert
Interesting. Wonder if this has been in the works for a while. I was in the process of opening an account in late January for Polygon and then ghosted.
@bentigg
EBITDA and can’t convince me otherwise. BUT I like being presented with SDE for a couple reasons. Breaks out owner comp/personal expenses and reveals how aggressive they’re pushing addbacks. Makes me even more skeptical when I see a bunch of questionable stuff.
I wouldn’t go as far as calling it a scam, but do think people have been conditioned to contribute without thinking outside the box.
I’ll have a thread on this at some point explaining why I think a lot of people shouldn’t contribute more than the match.
@RegZeller
This is true of almost every free market with asymmetrical risk:rewards. The juice gets squeezed. Banks operate within a fairly defined risk curve, whereas buyers should pencil deals that provide outsized returns for any incremental risk
@SecretCFO
The evolution is more about soft skills than excel wizardry.
Have to be able to engage and connect with all different types of personalities to ultimately get the desired end result.
Define your goalposts and work backwards.
My professional thesis has always been to either make as much as you can or learn as much as you can but ideally it’s both. That will set you up to pursue whatever endeavor is next.
@atnissly
Higher for longer - meaning sharper increases, but years of this is unsustainable. Soft landing is likely out of the equation. However, elevated rates for another 9-12 months with an accelerated reduction of liquidity should contract the economy and increase unemployment.
@SMB_Attorney
In a similar situation. Making 7 figures at my day job, but sacrificing quality time with wife and kids. Always stressed due to high pressure job and the family feels the brunt of it. Hard to be “in the present” as my mind is always occupied. Not worth it for me
@SBA_Matthias
1M+ SDE, industry agnostic, SoCal or ability to be remote. Only requirement is company must be positioned to scale via tuckins or adjacent acquisitions. I.e. construction (plumbing, hvac, heavy equipment rental, etc)
Apparently a fund blew out $1b+ on the MSTR-BTC spread trade today
They covered into the close which is why BTC dumped and MSTR premium went to the highs
PNL pocketed by based Saylor and will be put back into BTC
I have so many interests/obsessions, which ironically, limits my tweeting ability as I’m trying to keep this account somewhat focused.
SMB
RE
Macro Economy
Creating algo’s for trading/sports betting
Investing (crypto/equities/derivs)
Travel
Blockchain Tech
⛳️ ⚾️ 🏀 🏈
@ThetaWarrior
@TrendSpider
“Last fired over a decade ago” I hope people don’t misconstrue this as the signal having a higher probability of being correct bc it hasn’t triggered in a decade. If anything, the signal is weaker if it triggered once in a sample size of >120 months, missing many sellable events
NFA, but strictly speaking from a token price perspective, the most undesirable position to be in is a L2 or gaming token that launched last cycle.
Likely will never see ATH's again with no revenue to generate a cash flowing sustainable business (unless you have a strong
Agree, esp. on value extraction.
From a pure price perspective, ETH’s parabolic days are behind it IMO. There are too many direct competitors and beta plays to ETH that were non existent in previous cycles.
That’s not to say ETH won’t eventually be $10k+, but if you’re
I see no reason why leading l2s wouldn’t eventually become l1s. they’d be valued by the market an order of magnitude higher. and they’d realize what ive realized by being in the trenches: that dapp builders r pragmatic and couldn’t care less about eth-alignment
@RegZeller
Well, deal appetite certainly hasn’t changed. It’s bc the Hope is rates are cut aggressively in 24/25 and if a deal pencils now, it’ll be OK
Bump. On a smaller scale, this seems to be happening with $MSTR. Trading way over NAV, funds trying to arb long btc/short MSTR, etc.
Saylor is the meme and $MSTR is the token.
Don’t think full blown GME can happen given the share price is too high for most to funnel in. But
Roaring Kitty/Deepfuckingvalue (GameStop)
Feel like a part 2 could transpire in the next 12-18 months. The macro socioeconomic conditions may be ripe. The market is the ultimate arena for the gamification of a rebellious community.
It may take form in another ticker, but look
@ConnorAbene
@the_virtual_cfo
I was the VP Finance at a multi billion dollar privately held company. $1B in revenue and cash flowing into the 9 figures. Company never had a CFO.
SMB owners would benefit by holding off on any “CFO” thoughts. Better to dive in and be financially savvy. Acctg is the foundation
Vixperation on Wednesday. Wouldn't be surprised to see seasonal weakness in equities over the next 2-4 weeks. In fact, I'm positioned for it. Mostly cash and some QQQ and SPY puts. Holding commodities (copper, steel, oil) that have relative strength.
You want to long any dip in