Potentially controversial opinion, but I think online gambling (Draftkings, FanDuel, etc) could be the next OxyContin / Purdue Pharma level health disaster for the USA.
Helping my wife lease a car:
“$837.17 per month and that’s our final number, we can’t go any lower.”
We decide we’re gonna leave.
“Wait! …
We can do it for $650.”
Is there any other industry like this?
We rent a small house in LA for $6,400 per month.
I went to an open house for a nearly identical house around the corner. If we bought it, our monthly mortgage pmt would be $13,760. Then add taxes, insurance, and maintenance.
Now you understand why LA is a strong rental market.
Limited Partners (LPs): what should you pay to be an investor in a private Real Estate deal?
General Partners (GPs): what should you charge for your work?
A thread on fees --->
Below is a list of RE entrepreneurs from $200k to $1.6bn in AUM.
Each leap forward in your RE career brings massive changes to your lifestyle & responsibilities that are critical to understand.
Follow people 1 or 2 steps ahead of you so you know what it takes to get there.
So you know a bit more about who the heck you’re following:
I’m 29.
I became an Eagle Scout at 16.
I flipped cars & sold Cutco at 17/18.
I left an institutional RE PE job at 26 to start a mini RE PE shop.
Now manage 85 MF units across 9 assets in LA.
6-wk old girl Dad!
I left my private equity job 2.5 years ago to start a RE PE Fund.
Closing in on $25mm AUM.
Looking to get to $1bn AUM.
What should I read, who should I follow, & who should I talk to in order to get there?
@CalMatters
Someone missed Econ 101. This does not cut the purchase price in half. This causes housing prices to increase. The solution is simply to allow housing construction.
My real estate passive income as a % of my personal expenses by year:
2018: 13%
2019: 27%
2020: 53%
(**Only includes income from my LP interests in my own deals. Excludes my fees earned as a GP as that is very active and is comparable to a 9-5 salary.)
On Lex Fridman’s podcast, Bill Ackman tells the epic story of buying $250mm of General Growth Properties at $0.30 and riding it to $30 🤯.
Takeaway: buy great assets where the main reason equity value is low is due to a capital structure issue.
Our version of this right now:
I've built a RE private equity business from $0 in early 2019 to >$25mm under management today.
And I still can't afford a starter home in LA.
I'm living my investment thesis. Ambitious people want to live in LA, but they will rent for longer than in any other city.
2019: 0 units, 0 buildings
2022: 106 units, 11 buildings
Made possible by hundreds of LPs.
Some have many decades of business experience, RE experience, & seniority on me.
Others have become Landlords/investors/property owners for the 1st time.
When a Section 8 tenant's personal income goes up, I get a notice.
Government portion goes down, tenant portion goes up.
Cool to see some tenants excited / proud about paying more rent. I've had people brag to me about paying more rent or getting off Section 8 completely.
Met a guy with a high paying job, not crazy wealthy.
We partnered in 2019 to buy RE with me as the on-the-ground operator, incentivized by performance based promote.
5 years and 3 buildings later, he owns & controls a $10mm portfolio with relatively little effort on his part.
Countless wealthy LPs:
“Let’s hang tight, there will be great deals in 6-12 months.”
I’m starting to wonder if this is right.
If everyone’s sitting on cash gearing up to deploy, maybe the great deals are what we’re seeing TODAY.
Not in 6-12 months when $$$’s jumping back in.
CA has an arbitrary $800 annual fee to have an LLC.
Making 14 of these payments for my entities on Monday.
Not a big tax relative to our size, but for smaller businesses this is a slap in the face.
CA could make easy tweaks like eliminating this to be more biz friendly.
Last month I finished deploying my 4th LA RE Fund, growing my business over 40%.
For $6.7mm, this Fund adds 28 apartment units across 3 buildings plus $1.6mm of budgeted renovation work.
Instead of a list of takeaways or lessons learned, I just decided to tell the story👇
I wanted to go to Duke University, but got waitlisted.
I wanted to work at Goldman, but got rejected after the 1st interview.
I wanted to go to b-school, but couldn’t get a high enough GMAT score.
Business is more fun when you’re playing the game with a chip on your shoulder!
Building a mini RE PE shop & property mgmt biz has been challenging & intense, but it’s also given me autonomy, purpose, and a chance for upside.
This is a fairly unique career path and can work for some, here are the top 5 things you need to start 👇
@BarryRoland19
It’s like OxyContin - millions took it after injuries and it was an innocuous, effective pain killer. But some % got addicted with horrible consequences.
It’s the same thing with being able to gamble on your iPhone on the couch. Fine for most, but it’ll destroy many lives.
I review a lot of tenant apps, bank statements, etc.
I’m amazed at the number of people who have a bunch of debt and/or live paycheck to paycheck yet order DoorDash or UberEats.
Paying someone to personally deliver food to your front door seems like such an avoidable excess.
Small rectangle used to be an extra door to the outside. Now it’s an in-unit washer/dryer. The big rectangle used to be a wall making a closed, galley kitchen. Now it’s an open kitchen concept with a ton of counter space.
I'm running $50mm of real estate working from home with a virtual assistant and a part time guy in the field.
18 buildings, 200+ tenants, 150+ investors.
10 years ago I imagined I'd need a office and team at this scale.
Before & After + some quick numbers.
Before: $1200 per month
After: $2600 per month
Cost $140k and lots of sweat to get there (lease buyout & reno), but a $1400 rent increase at a 5% cap rate is ~$330k in additional building value.
Effective strategy for high earners: build stock portfolio w/ a financial advisor.
Borrow against stocks to put $ w/ best RE GP you can find. Repay loan w/ salary. Repeat.
Within 10 years, should have enough passive RE income to comfortably cover all expenses.
1031’s are 🥜.
Say you make $1mm profit on a house or RE deal.
With 1031: put $1mm back into RE and grow from there.
Without 1031: send ~$200k to Uncle Sam. Put $800k in stock market.
** it could then take 5 years for that $800k to even get back to $1mm.
I’ve taken a few chances on tenants w/ low credit scores because I met them, got comfortable w/ their story, had a good gut feel.
Sad to report it’s been a lesson learned as ALL have been a headache w/ late rent & delinquency 😢.
Sadly, credit scores matter. A lot.
Lifecycle of RE:
Developer takes big risk & builds. Sells to core buyer looking for yield.
Core buyer clips coupon for as long as he can. Doesn’t allocate $ for CapEx.
Deferred CapEx builds.
Value-add buyer comes along to take on deferred CapEx. Sells to core buyer.
Repeat.
Set yourself up for efficient wealth creation:
1. Set your salary (highly taxed W2/1099 income) at a level that gives you a reasonably comfortable lifestyle. Nothing more.
2. Shift the rest of your compensation to equity ownership in assets (businesses, properties, etc.)
Recently hit milestone of $100,000 in monthly revenue.
Been able to be creative and nimble to keep all property mgmt in house.
Have tenants/workers who’ve stepped up to be good handymen/managers & I’m doing much of the leasing.
Not sure it’ll ever make sense to go 3rd party.
Who can help me take my business from $25mm in RE to $100mm?
I am making my 1st strategic hire: Head of Asset Mgmt.
1. Lead PM, leasing, construction, etc. to maximize value. 2. Onboard new closings.
Please send your resume to apps
@keystoneinvestors
.co for more details.
@sweatystartup
LA has seen a 76% crime drop since the 1990’s.
Population is shrinking, but becoming increasingly affluent.
LA has supply constraints, the holy grail of RE appreciation.
CA covers maternity leave, which makes us biz friendly for an increasingly female white collar workforce.
I’ve done 12 acquisition loans. 6 cash-out refis. 18 loans total.
This week signed on my 1st one without a co-signer.
A point I’ve been trying to get to since I started. And banker didn’t even tell me until a couple days before signing.
I don’t want to be a serial entrepreneur.
I plan to just keep grinding in my niche for decades, addressing a critical pain point.
Compounding $$$, relationships, expertise, & reputation.
Renovated & converted a standard 2BR into a 2BR+Private Office in a classic 1920’s Craftsman.
Receiving applications for $2,950, which for the renter is a >25% discount to new buildings & nicer areas. For us, a new lease at $2,950 locks in >$450k in value creation.
I’m currently running a ~$40mm AUM Private Equity Business and a ~$2.5mm RE Property Mgmt Company.
Just me and an extremely talented handyman.
Once I build this into a true integrated business, I’m probably going to look back at these time and call myself a crazy person.
Cost of living in LA isn’t bad after some high upfront costs.
Buy surfboard, mountain bike, and some good hiking boots.
From there spend no $$ in your free time, while your friends in NYC sit down for a $250 boozy brunch.
This business is so tough.
It’s a constant grind day after day.
In the hardest moments I remind myself:
If this was easy, everyone could do it and this opportunity would not exist.
Closed our 14th LA multifamily property.
Grueling deal process, professionally executed by Taylor Avakian
@TAYVAY_
.
Many thanks to him & his team.
Good to be back in buy mode (albeit slow & cautious) after 18 months of educating sellers on this new market reality.
Easy sharing "Wins," here's a recent "L."
The deal started out as a "W."
Bought for ~$2mm in 2019, beat budget on renovations, beat timeline, and beat underwritten rents.
Appraised for ~$3mm, would have been >30% return on investment in less than a year had we sold.
Instead
Just closed a cash-out refinancing (3.35%, 5-YR mortgage) where I will return 67% of investor equity.
This is after only renovating 3 of 8 units. Shows how much upside there is per unit in LA.
Bought for $1.59mm in 2019, invested $230k, appraised for $2.2mm.
I left an institutional real estate private equity firm six years ago to start my own.
Progress by the numbers, including deals under contract:
- 19 buildings
- 81 unit renovations
- 196 units
- $20mm capital raised
- $8mm CapEx completed
Caught a city inspector say that he has to provide corrections no matter how good a job we’ve done in order to prove to his boss that he was actually on site.
I started a simple business. I buy 5-30 unit apartments in LA on behalf of investors. On the left is a studio that was renting for $808 / month. On the right is the same unit, now leased for $1,600. Rinse & repeat, trying to get better each time. I'm on Twitter to learn & help.
How I started my Real Estate Fund business (1/4) 👇
1. While working at a large LA RE private equity Fund, I raised a small private Fund targeting a 2-4 unit apartment building.
2. A few months after raising, I found & bought a 4Plex.
I'm sorry, but I just can't get over the article about City of LA spending $130,000 EACH to build 39 8' x 8' sheds.
I dug into the line items of the budget and this is the one that really kills me:
Design, Project Management, & Inspection: $546,000.
I’ve underwritten thousands of RE deals across different asset classes across the country. Here’s where expected returns typically shake out assuming a 5YR hold:
Core: 5-10%
Value-add: 10-15%
Development: 15-20%
If someone advertises outside this range, it’s often a red flag.
It's interesting how there's this little community of RE GP's active on Twitter.
There are 10's of thousands of RE GP's of various scales across the US who barely know what Twitter is.
Tenant just called me.
He needs to pay rent late so he can stay in AMC stock for 1 more week because it's about to go above $20.
*this tweet is not financial advice or insider information*
Real Estate Private Equity ("RE PE") began millennia ago with a young entrepreneur overwhelmed with a burning desire to fix up a property she happened to walk past on her way home.
This protagonist (General Partner - “GP”) doesn’t have any money, but knows that some $$$
(1/7)
We’re not “stealing” properties.
We’re getting them really “cheap” because there is a significant amount of hard work, capital, and expertise required to reverse decades of under-management & bring each property up to its full operational potential.
Just left a meeting in Century City, LA.
Spent 15 mins in a 6-Story parking structure and couldn't find a spot. Food court was packed. Construction everywhere.
What has Century City figured out that Downtown LA can't?
Weird day.
Guy I pitched on my biz years ago calls me out of the blue.
Neighbor’s building had an electrical fire & must sell ASAP. She doesn’t have the time/resources for repair.
Worth >$3mm, I met her & left her with a signed $2.4mm cash offer, 10 day close.
We’ll see 🤷♂️.
Exterior of my first non "side-hustle" deal.
I wanted to tear out these hedges and put up fences for private yards. Contractor thought I was a lunatic and convinced me not to. Those hedges take 50 years to grow!
Sure enough, 6 of the 7 new tenants have not moved since 2019.
How I operate my biz (1/4) 👇
1) I raise capital in a discretionary Fund structure via 1 on 1 meetings with potential investors.
* It takes me ~3-6 months to do these meetings, & I typically raise ~$3mm.
** I pitch my existing investors first, then new people I’ve met.
Sent myself a $4.7k distribution from Fund 4. (I’m also an LP of course.)
Spending most of it on a family trip to Rome / Capri.
Life’s not always about compounding!
Great quote from Jon Gray in the context of Blackstone's $10b multifamily acquisition:
"We are not waiting for the all-clear sign and believe the best investments are made during times of uncertainty."
Awhile back I invested in a startup. Cofounders got in a dispute and the biz went to zero.
A great thing about investing in a RE Fund or deal is even if your Sponsor gets hit by a bus, you still own a piece of a physical building + land.
I've officially hired a Head of Asset Management.
This is huge for:
- Investors
- Residents
- Vendors
We're now set up for long-term, sustainable growth.
I know nothing about cars, this was a random, throwaway comment. I mainly tweet about my journey building a Real Estate Private Equity business.
I also send a newsletter every week with insights into the Los Angeles RE market. Link is in my bio.
We’re not in a multifamily bubble.
Why?
Working on a refi on a 6Plex. Leased 3 different units at $3750, $3500 & $3250. Appraiser marked them all at $3100.
Neither me, loan broker nor lender were allowed to ask him to explain his logic.
Exact opposite of ‘07 lending frenzy.
I am looking for someone with big ambitions to be the CEO of my Property Management Business:
- CEO
- 50% ownership
- Our initial portfolio of 168 units
- Growth engine via my REPE Co & my network
- CA Broker's License needed
Please DM if interested or know a good candidate.
Why would I buy a house?
It’s cash flow negative every month.
I buy cash flow positive rentals, building equity and covering my monthly rent.
Now that RE investing is democratized, there’s no reason to buy a house and be bleeding cash every month for the next 30 years.
I earn less per year in deal fees than when I was a low-on-the-totem-pole guy at a big RE PE shop.
I’m betting my career that our deals meaningfully outperform.
I was just talking to an LP who has $100k invested.
He had no idea that he actually owned $286k of real estate.
This is because $100k is the equity portion. Leverage is around 65%, so the asset value of his holdings is $100k/35%=$286k.
And this doesn't consider appreciation.
LPs: if your GP is charging on the high end of these ranges, you should dig in and ensure they're doing the work associated with that fee.
GPs: if you are doing the work, you need to charge for it or you will go out of business and your LPs will suffer over the long-term.
Cleared $30k for the 2nd month in a row on our 20Plex.
Massive relief as I struggled w/ serious delinquency shortly after COVID.
6 months of excruciating pain to improve the rent roll & be patient for higher credit tenants.
Now we don't have a single missed payment. Finally.
Signed up another cash-out refi that'll return >50% of invested equity.
3.35% non-recourse, 5 years.
I sold my 1st deal for a 30% return to investors after a <1 year hold.
I've held the next 5 and instead done cash-out refi's returning 35-70% of invested equity.
Biz I would NOT want to get into long term: laundromats.
Young people are scared of germs, post-covid socially awkward, & put a big premium on their time.
We put washer/dryer in every renovation & believe it drives >$200 per month more in rent while only costing a few thousand.
One of the reasons it’s really hard to invest in illiquid assets is because you’re always saving up for big items.
In your 20’s it’s an engagement ring & wedding.
In your 30’s it’s a house.
40’s it’s private school.
50’s it’s college.
By 60, you’ve missed out on compounding.
Met with the CFO of a institutional RE PE Fund the other day:
“Less than 40% of Funds ever hit their promote.”
* hitting promote means clearing the funds Pref Return, which is typically 6-9%.
Which means most LPs aren’t even getting to double digits in these illiquid vehicles.
I spent a few thousand hours as an investment banker covering REITs.
From what I saw, the incentive structure for Mgmt to generate returns for stockholders was average at best.
I think the centuries old, GP / LP, Pref & Promote structure is still the best way to own RE.
I didn’t just dive head first into creating a real estate private equity firm.
I started by putting >10k focused hours into building 2 specific skills:
1) financial modeling & deal underwriting
2) sales
People can make LA seem all Kumbaya, love and fun everywhere!
The reality is this is the most competitive place on earth. You need to be in the top 5% in your field to really make it here.
And if you’re not at the top of your field, that’s where your sights are.
I considered doing an MBA when I was 26.
Wharton guy told me the biggest pro was he could network w/ anyone using his ".edu" email.
Today instead of having a ".edu," you can get this result by publicly posting well-researched, value-add, written content on a specific topic.
This is the general framework, now what are the fees a GP can charge?
1. Acquisition Fee
2. Disposition Fee
3. Financing Fee / Guarantor Fee
4. Property Mgmt Fee
5. Construction Mgmt Fee
6. Leasing Fee
7. Asset Mgmt Fee
8. Promote after a Preferred Return
Onni Group is one of the most sophisticated & well capitalized developers in the world.
They bought a large dev site in DTLA in 2016 for $120mm.
They went to the planning commission last May & received approval yesterday. Plan to finish in 2024.
That's an 8-Year timeline.
Just got a 1BR lease signed for $2,100.
Underwriting was $1,950.
Solves a lot of our problems around higher costs due to labor shortage & supply chain issues. Keeps us on track to beat promised returns.
We promise a minimum of a 12% annualized return (IRR) net to investors.
Closed our 15th apartment deal in Los Angeles last week, clearing 150 units in our portfolio.
Our goal is to underwrite, tour, and bid on hundreds of deals, acquiring just a few of the best each year.
DMs are open for details / case study.
Since I bought my 1st investment property in December of 2017, I've sent $1,464,041 of profits back to investors.
Just signed an LOI on another refi - hoping to add another ~$250,000 to that # within the next 2 months.
Instead of trying to modernize this building by painting the exterior a 2-tone black and white, I decided to repaint with the original color. Beige with red trim. Also, I bought a vintage chandelier for the interior stairwell, which looks really cool.
Starting & growing a business has been the most fun, challenging, and intense thing I’ve done in my life.
Then we had a baby.
You can guess which takes the cake.
She turns 1 in a week, happy & healthy.
God Bless 🙏🙏🙏