Associate Professor, University of Auckland, Vaccinologist, Co-Director, Global Vaccine Data Network. In pursuit of a hike, good food and wine. Opinions my own.
COVID-19 vaccines do not increase the risk for all-cause mortality. They decrease it. To conduct a good study you need good data AND time AND appropriate expertise. Here are some studies on all-cause mortality after COVID-19 vax. 1/7
What these thieves have done to NZers is reprehensible. You have to be a sanctimonious self absorbed degenerate little cockroach to be to carry out an act like this. Much aroha to all the victims.
@nzherald
I assess the safety of vaccines for a living and am lead investigator on several NZ covid-19 vaccine safety studies, along with top epidemiologists. There is ZERO evidence for increased risk for mortality after vaccination in NZ. ZIP, ZILCH,ZERO,0.😡😡😡🤮🤬
🧵1/8 The Global Vaccine Data Network (GVDN) is thrilled to announce the publication of the largest vaccine safety study ever conducted, covering 99 million vaccinated individuals. A monumental effort in
#VaccineSafety
research. 🌍💉
Many thanks again to the
@latimes
for rolling the dice with me on this opinion piece and standing up for science. Not long ago we took this for granted, but tragically for the nation this is no longer the case.
Just addressing the lies stating I had 'unfettered access' to health data in regard to covid vaccine safety and promised to publish and never did. Also claims I would not get another dose of vaccine. Facts and links below 6/6: 😀
Remarkable how, when provided with an exceptional piece of research that does not say what they want it to say, all the grifters and trolls manage to come up with is "conflicts of interest". This is a logical fallacy called the Ad Hominem attack. Lame.
Some anti-science folk appear convinced that the Pfizer mRNA COVID-19 vaccine is causing Guillain Barre Syndrome (GBS). They claim I have lied and then they lost their shit when I said it does not. Let’s look at some evidence. 1/10
1/7 Response to Vinay Prasad's misunderstandings
@han_francis
. Vinay’s comments on the GVDN observed over expected study of adverse events of special interest post covid-19 vaccination are based on a litany of false premises and cherry picked information.
There are many others and all consistent. Hence why scientists are calling bollocks to claims of increased mortality associated with covid vaccines. More likely to stay alive in the vaccinated group. 7/7
mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small risk for myocarditis BUT NOT associated with more risk than COVID-19 disease. Useful explainer on misrepresented data claiming otherwise. Thanks for the study
@anders_hviid
and co. 👌👍
@HopeRising19
consider checking your facts before amplifying misinformation. Do you know the definitions of adverse events and adverse reactions? Do you understand what passive reporting is and what it is for? Do you know what background rates means?
US Cohort Study Compared 6.4million vaccinated individuals (with Pfizer, Moderna, or Janssen vaccines) and 4.6million unvax. Vaccinated had lower non–COVID-19 mortality risk than unvax. 2/7
This is encouraging. Early initiation of metformin in covid-19 infection reduced long covid 🥳Also, vaccinated people were much less likely to develop long covid. 1.8% boosted developed long covid compared with 10.5% unvaccinated. omicron era.
Very good news
Metformin significantly helped prevent
#LongCovid
in a placebo-controlled randomized trial, a 42% relative reduction
by
@BramanteCarolyn
and colleagues
Europe. Faster-vaccinating countries had significantly lower mortality rates compared to slower ones. Slow booster rates were linked to higher mortality during Omicron BA.1/2 dominance. 6/7
Argentina: 663,602 aged 60 and older evaluated impact of COVID-19 vaccines (rAd26-rAd5, ChAdOx1, and BBIBP-CorV) on all-cause mortality. Significant reduction in all-cause death, COVID-related death, and infection with any dose. 3/7
Like
@JaninePaynter
says… and we do our research ethically with integrity and in collaboration with an expert multidisciplinary team. Then we offer it up for peer review. Stuff these peddlers of woo omit.
Today
@PetousisH
and received another OIA request. I'm hoping this sets a record for OIA requests being met....it begins...for the record I'm a Senior Research Fellow not a professor (soundtrack for that comment; The Lady is a Tramp- Ella Fitzgerald does a marvellous version).
🧵8/8 Our focus shifts to the critical next steps of ensuring ongoing international research into vaccine safety and effectiveness. Understanding rare adverse events is key to protecting public health worldwide.
#ScienceForAll
🌏💉
7/7 Vinay seems not to understand the hierarchy of vaccine safety studies. Observed overExpected are hypotheses generating studies. They are followed by hypothesis testing (association studies). He does not mention those. Omission.
Hungary: Investigated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in preventing all-cause mortality among adults during the third wave of the epidemic. Vaccine was associated with reduction in mortality in vaccinated cohorts. 4/7
2/ 7 First, he asserts that the benefits of covid-19 vaccination are small. This is contrary to scientific fact. The benefits have been huge, even in younger healthier populations. Eg:
6/6 Claims that I was not getting another dose of vaccine have been misrepresented and several fact checkers have addressed this. For the record I have had 4 doses, age appropriate.
Hungary: All-cause mortality in 6.4mil vax and nonvax groups during epidemic and nonepidemic periods. Adj for the healthy vaccinee effect, all 6 COVID vaccines used (incl Pfizer) effective in reducing all-cause mortality. 5/7
NZE is the only country in the world with high vax, good death data and vax happening before and not in parallel with covid
It saw no excess in the<60, which is not attributable to covid
This de facto kills any claim of high vax deaths made elsewhere, let me explain⤵️
🧵2/8 This comprehensive study, published in Vaccine, along with interactive data dashboards, marks nearly three years of collaborative work aimed at enhancing our understanding of COVID-19 vaccine safety. A milestone in public health communication! 📊🔍
🧵3/8 By examining 13 neurological, blood, and heart-related conditions, the study offers unparalleled insights into the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. It's part of the broader Global COVID Vaccine Safety Project.
#PublicHealth
#COVID19
5/6 claims of 'unfettered access' are utter bullshit. The team have ethical approval and no one has access to identifiable data, ever. And for the record, I do not personally have any access to the data, the epi and biostats team do.
@mayer_maree
@SeanPlunket
They funded a meeting in Jan 2019. They do not fund me or GVDN. And even if they did, it does not change the science. Shoot the message, rather than rely on ad hominem attacks.
5/ 7 He seems not to understand there are other types of studies to test hypothesis. "'Association studies’ use a very different methodology, sometimes with reviews of patient records. An example that investigates the ADEM signal.
🧵7/8 Special thnks to lead author Kristýna Faksová and team at the Dept of Epi Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark, and all collaborators on The Global COVID Vaccine Safety (GCoVS) Project. 👏🔬
4/7 He uses red herrings to bamboozle like the problems with hospital coding. and claims this is an issue for the study – it is not, the study is designed to detect a change in pattern to assess causality.
🧵5/8 Also highlighted are possible safety signals for transverse myelitis after viral vector vaccines and acute disseminated encephalomyelitis after both viral vector and mRNA vaccines. Further investigation has been done here. 🔬📝
There is a very good reason why use of these data sets is restricted to ethical expert researchers who actually know what they are doing. No relevant epidemiologist will concur with K1r5ch's 'findings' because they are bogus. Why is he doing this do u think?
🧵6/8 GVDN’s interactive dashboards make this data accessible for public review, emphasising transparency and engagement in vaccine safety discussions. Check out the dashboards here: 🖥️✨]
The study also highlighted that Māori had lower vaccination rates than Europeans, and if the rates were equal, up to 26% of Māori deaths might have been avoided. Making sure everyone has equal access to vaccines should be a priority. 7/7
3/7 He conflates an observed over expected study with a hypothesis testing study. Observed over expected studies are hypothesis generating. They are designed to be sensitive, we do not want to miss a safety signal.
🧵4/8 Key findings include pre-established safety signals for myo and pericarditis post-mRNA vaccines, and Guillain-Barré syndrome and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis post-viral vector vaccines. Important data for ongoing vaccine safety monitoring. ❤️🧠
Not only was all-cause mortality lower that would normally be predicted but the country experienced one of the lowest death rates from COVID-19. This is inconsistent with the claims on social media made by Young and Kirsch and supported by evidence from other countries. 3/7
10/10 There is more but point made. So, given the body of evidence on the table to date about Pfizer mRNA covid-19 vaccine and GBS, had I agreed that the vaccine caused GBS, then I would have lied, because I was aware of this research that said otherwise.
NZ an excellent country to examine COVID-19 mortality and COVID-19 vaccines as it is one of only a few places that remained largely free of the virus until most of the population had been vaccinated. 2/7
@MackayIM
@KMTechie
@Ian_HKU
So important to be able to present risk-risk for each age group. Balance still favours vaccine in young males. This chart is quite cool. .
1/6 In 2021 my team finally secured a contract to develop the normal background rates of potential adverse events of special interest post COVID-19 vaccines - and posted outputs on our website for all to see.
By comparing different ‘what-if’ scenarios, the research suggested that vaccinations prevented about 6,650 deaths and stopped 45,100 hospital visits in an 18-month period. The number of lives saved might be even higher if we consider the effects of antiviral drugs. 6/7
2/6 Background rates provide information about the normal incidence of health events by age, gender, and ethnicity so we know what to expect by chance after a vaccine is deployed. Ideally they are prepared prior to vaccine launch
@RawiriTaonui
She should have been declined entry IMHO. Why do people defend her right to free speech while overlooking the other human rights which she infringes upon. Too many using free speech as a veil.
However, we didn't have clear numbers on how much this helped overall health. To help figure this out, researchers used a detailed computer model that considered different levels of vaccination in various age and ethnic groups. 4/7
Before discouraging people from receiving a COVID vaccine or booster as a routine part of their antenatal care, I think it's important to understand why professional bodies in obstetrics recommend it.
I have put this information to Naomi Wolf...
Testing the safety of any new covid19 vaccine as it is rolled out will need global co-operation and consistent data structures
@PetousisH
and colleagues have worked hard to set up this fine network of vaccine research pros
@c_plushie
@joerogan
@nealbrennan
@JohnBerman
@jacindaardern
@SiouxsieW
So let me get this straight. 🧐The entire global medical and scientific community, with the exception of a very few 'special ones', recommended people take a vaccine that didn't work because they are all part of a massive cover up.😱 Oh come on!
Pleased to see the report from Taskforce that addressed the dismal NZ Immunisation situation. It is damning and it needed to be. If the recommendations are truly implemented our inequitable and shameful infectious diseases burden will be corrected.
Nice study on post vaccine carditis from
@Ian_HKU
and colleagues in Hong Kong - low but real absolute rsk of carditis after Pfizer vaccine of 0.57 per 100,000 doses, an increase of 0.26. Not after CoronaVac. Thanks for this valuable contribution.👍
This model also took into account new factors like the introduction of antiviral drugs and changes in hospital data. The findings were used to guide the NZ government's decisions in 2022 and 2023. 5/7
Nice piece from Melbourne colleagues that highlights the normal background rates of health conditions in the absence of vaccines in Victoria. Forms the basis for safety monitoring after deploying new vaccines. 1/2
4/ 10 Now we can look at the risk of GBS both with and without exposure to the Pfizer vaccine and also other brands. The self-controlled case series (SCCS) method or similar is probably the best approach. Here are the results of some of these studies:
Countering Antivaxx Disinformation
A common technique by antivaxx disinfo spreaders is to "just ask questions" ("JAQing off"), whereby they ask a question but leave the IMPLICATION that the "vaccine is the answer."
Of course, it takes EFFORT to rebut, but let's, shall we?
/1
9/10 Nested case control study from Israel in a cohort of over 3million patients looking at GBS associated with infection and vaccine. Infection increased risk with odds ratio of over 6, mRNA vaccine DECREASED risk.
As I show below, any claim of major vaccine mortality is invalidated by the New Zealand data
I hadn't realized that New Zealand had released its death by cause data so I had a deeper look
The result is even fewer signs of vaccine mortality but a few things requiring analysis ⤵️
3/10 Then we can frame a research question “Does administration of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine increase the risk of the onset of GBS?” Keep in mid this condition is very rare, here are the background rates for different countries.
The OECD have released their own Age Standardised Mortality Rate report, basically confirming all the criticisms people have had of the deaths / average deaths 2015-2019 measure. Other countries than NZ did better than expected, NZ just best of the best.
6/10 SCCS study from England in over 17million persons. Viral vector vaccine associated with increased risk of GBS, Pfizer mRNA vaccine associated with no increased risk of GBS.
First publication from Global Vaccine Data Network. This work helps us to understand what rates of certain adverse events we normally see in populations. Ideally done before introducing a new vaccine. 197 million diverse people and 1.2 billion people years!
🚨New study out🚨 from the Global Covid Vaccine Safety project on background rates.
🇩🇰🏴🇫🇮🇫🇷🏴🇹🇼🇦🇷🇦🇺🇨🇦
197 million participants!
1.2 billion person-years of follow-up!
Variability between sites and periods is important to consider!
@SSI_AEF
@SSI_AEF
@PetousisH
🧵
A quick update on mortality in Western Europe as most countries have reported their weekly deaths up to end 2023 (only exception: Not Italy, Sweden😅)
First aha: In Q4 2023, Germany, Finland and the Netherlands have the highest ASMR , not countries I would have on my radar
1/
5/10 SCCS study from Italy looking at multiple different covid-19 vaccines and GBS among ~16million persons. Risk for GBS was increased after viral vector and Moderna but not after Pfizer mRNA vaccines.
I remember those fun school days when we were about 6 or 7 and learning about numerators and denominators. Who would have thought fractions and % would be so useful 🙄🤪😂
The main "massive" thing here is how stupid and awful these strained attempts to "make" something true are😠😠
Spreading them relies on people taking the claim in the text at face value.
(Some readers will note Barry is aping a grifter here, too.)
1/n
@thereal_truther
Heard some brand new nonsense today!😂
Claims that an Australian study found garlic is highly effective at treatment or prevention of COVID-19.
I looked into it and put my findings on Misinformation Wiki:
Lamentable MMR coverage. 😢Multiple public exposures. NZ coverage @ 18mos is dismal 67.6% ...but for Maori in Counties Manukau it is 36.3%. TARGET is 95%
Blog by Karin and I about Observed over Expected studies. These studies help identify potential rare adverse events after immunisation by comparing what is observed with what is normally expected. Signals can be followed up with association studies.
8/10 Prospective surveillance study from South Korea on over 35million doses of viral vector and mRNA vaccines. Overall incidence post vaccine 1.42/million. After viral vector incidence
4.49/million, after mRNA 0.8/million
@deborahjonesnz
Covid infection is considered a boost. Therefore, unlikely to be benefit from another vaccine dose. No evidence to support risk-benefit and the risks from repeated immunological boosting with the same SARS-CoV-2 antigen is not well established.
@AlastairMcA30
As a vaccine safety scientist who has to jump through a million ethical hoops to do a transparent and ethical vaccine safety study using de-identified data this just makes me sick.🤮😡 'Whistleblower' my arse. "Winston" betrayed us all.
@Thoughtfulnz
I find it hard to believe that there is not a massive amount of pertussis in the community based on historical patterns (including post H1N1 pandemic), and immunisation coverage. Need more convincing that the much anticipated pertussis epidemic is not actually raging around us.