Jean Fisch @Jean__Fisch Twitter profile

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

NZE is the only country in the world with high vax, good death data and vax happening before and not in parallel with covid It saw no excess in the<60, which is not attributable to covid This de facto kills any claim of high vax deaths made elsewhere, let me explain⤵️

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

For the record: The only reliable infection data in the world based on random sample (ONS / UK) univocally shows that the Imperial estimate for the IFR of covid of 1% back in 2020 WAS BANG ON (and not "20 times over estimated" as claimed here)

Toby Young

@toadmeister

2 years

Imperial College London scared the world into locking down with death projections based on fatality estimates that the latest data suggest are up to 20 times higher than the reality.

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

What is fascinating about New Zealand is that it is such a "clean case" with (a) no covid until 2022 (b) high vaccination as of 2021 It is also therefore a great case to see if there is a "death spike" when vaccinations happened mid 2021 among the <60 Result? No top line signal

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

This chart of monthly deaths by causes in Germany will create quite a stir: Deaths due to the heart in 20-22 increase/decrease with covid deaths Two implications 1) Many deaths "due to heart" were likely "due to covid" 2)) Vaccines cannot be a major cause of heart-related deaths

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

The 2022 death data for England and Wales is now complete What stands out is that deaths excl covid are fully in line with those expected from - Population evolution expected by ONS - Historic trends of mortality rates by age But covid is not the only factor as you will see⤵️

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

My thread on why New Zealand "demonstrates" that vaccines cannot be the source of huge deaths due to vaccines created quite a stir Some seem to have a hard time to believe it and come up with quite some hand-waving to say it's wrong Let me summarize all my checks here

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

5 months

Let me summarize the "totality of the evidence" There are loads of studies which are inherently inconclusive because vaccination and covid happened at the same time in that country In the only country where vaccination happened before covid, there was a heart disease deficit

Dr Aseem Malhotra

@DrAseemMalhotra

5 months

Given the totality of evidence the covid mRNA jab is likely THE primary driver of an increase in heart attacks and cardiac arrests until proven otherwise. Those not accepting this are either wilfully blind, financially conflicted or lack a conscience

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

Interesting data came out today from Denmark, where @SSI_dk released cumulative covid deaths "for covid" (according to death register) by age bracket under a FOIR How does this compare with Sweden? Well it is 3 times lower ... almost across the age board A QUICK WALK THROUGH

Frederik Schaltz-Buchholzer

@FSBuchholzer

2 years

Just in From the great 🇩🇰 registries - among the best in the World - pandemic total mortality *from* COVID-19, by age group, provided by @SSI_dk to @brianweichardt following a FOIA request. The official number of 🇩🇰 COVID-19 deaths is 8385; deaths FROM COVID-19: 3861 (46%) 🧵

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

ONS updated its infection estimates and it's higher than many expected This has implications / # of infections ~ 200% pop / % Pop infected >>95% pop / >>90% of infections are now reinfections / Protection from infection is high but maybe not as high as thought Details below ⤵️

Make SEN make sense

@OmicronData

2 years

So...ONS estimates that in the UK BA.4/5 infected almost 50% of the population. Wow.

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

Your analysis does not address the confounder with covid On the contrary, the only country in the world with sequential vax and covid (New Zealand) showed NO signal due to vax Until you find an issue with the NZE data, that country's data invalidates your conclusion

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

There was a press interview with health officials in China which delivered quite some interesting information on China's wave If you consider that these figures are correct, it shows that the level of hospitalization is far higher than anything we experienced in Europe 1/

BNO News

@BNOFeed

2 years

BREAKING: China admits COVID hospitalizations peaked at 1.6 million on January 5, including 128,000 severe cases

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

This has deep implications because the New Zealand case "trumps" any other analysis, purely on grounds of logic So unless someone finds an error in the analysis of the New Zealand mortality data, the matter is essentially settled, ie there is no signal of major vax mortality 6/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

26 days

This tweet is a masterpiece of "writing to effect" The statements on LC made by this Lab attracted much attention Let go through them by adding the figs as they are known from the UK, the ONLY place in the world with a clue on its infx and potential LC Hint: There is much spin

Putrino Lab

@PutrinoLab

29 days

Dangerous garbage being presented “science writing”. Two *actual* facts surrounding #COVID infection: 1. Your risk of #LongCOVID , a currently incurable chronic illness, after surviving an acute COVID infection currently sits conservatively at ~6-7% 2. Your risk of LC increases 1/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

I have now read several times this morning the assertion that BA.5 is significantly more severe than previous Omicron strains So far, I fail to see any evidence of higher severity Here a quick summary on BA5 ⤵️

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

4 months

The Telegraph relays a study which highlights concerning continued excess based on 2020, 2021 and 2022 estimates per @OurWorldInData and suggest vaccines as cause That study fails to mention that - covid explains largely that excess - 2023 saw a clear reduction across the board

The Telegraph

@Telegraph

4 months

💉 Covid vaccines could be partly to blame for the rise in excess deaths since the pandemic, scientists have suggested Find out more⬇️

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

11 months

This may not be widely known but one German regional state has been doing the equivalent of the ONS survey since early 2023 Approx 1% of the pop gets infected every week ie / Infections are 50-100x higher than cases / Very roughly, it means a reinfection every 1.5-2.5 year

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

@GLBouchez @MR_officiel Monsieur Bouchez, je découvre avec effroi l'affirmation que "le vaccin n'a pas permis d'être où nous en sommes" Est-ce calomnier et attaquer votre parti de de dire que ce tweet de Monsieur Blanchard verse dans de l'antivax primaire? J'ose espérer que non

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

10 months

Wow. The randomized infection survey in Rheinland-Pfalz (with a sample size as big as that of the new UK survey for a pop of only 4m) showed a huge increase in incidence, from an already high 2,600 to 3,800 this week This figure is now high absolutely speaking ... 1/2

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

7 months

Bergamo happened 4 years ago and one question I often see coming back is "why was Bergamo hit but Rome not?" "Why not eastern Europe?" The overall answer is unfortunately rather simple: Ties to Wuhan and bad luck 1/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

Right to have closed schools in retrospect? 59% say right 29% say wrong in this UK poll I must admit that I was not expecting such a clear cut opinion (which holds across political lines)

YouGov

@YouGov

1 year

In hindsight, do you think it was right or wrong to close schools during the COVID‑19 pandemic? All Britons Right to do so: 59% Wrong to do so: 29% Con voters Right to do so: 47% Wrong to do so: 41% Lab voters Right to do so: 72% Wrong to do so: 20%

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

This chart will invariably create a stir but there you go As ONS also has deaths by age bands, I mapped them against infections deduced from ONS positivity to determine IFR by variant Result? The accumulated immunity does not seem to have had an impact on IFR in the 0-12s yet⤵️

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

Just for clarity, I think it's vital to check for signals of covid vaccine induced deaths simply because there is risk eg - intrinsic risk of novelty (of mRNA vaccines) even if the biology looks safe - the appalling transparency record of pharma when things go wrong 1/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Covid in 🇧🇪: Admissions "for covid" continue to indicate that they have no intention to follow the growth folly of cases I call this a good day

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

I see more and more often the narrative "vaccines are good at protecting against severe disease but not against infection / transmission" May I remind everybody that a large part of the high (90%) efficacy against severe disease comes from the protection against infection? 1/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

I think this chart will create quite a stir It shows beyond doubt that England+Wales did NOT see significant and largely unexplained excess in S1 2023 as depicted by mortality analyses based on death registrations On the contrary, excess was largely explained by covid THREAD⤵️

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

Yet in the only country in the world where the events vaccination and covid were sequential (New Zealand), mortality shows - no immediate impact of vaccination - any excess after vaccination completely in line with what I suppose 100s of doctors felt as involving covid 5/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 months

This is a fascinating study about masks because it yields "hard" figures 4.5k people were randomly assigned to a control & mask wearing group for 14d During this period of high (~5% weekly) infection incidence, masks in public spaces reduced the infection risk by 15-40% 1/

Alasdair Munro

@apsmunro

2 months

Incredible study 🇳🇴 RCT of surgical masks for reducing respiratory infections Wearing a mask for 14d reduced onset of symptoms of respiratory infection (OR 0.71, 0.58-0.87) Absolute risk difference of ~3% What does this mean? 1/🧵

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Covid in 🇧🇪: Help me out / Omicron could be dominant by the end of the month / It evades 2 doses transmission / Boosters seems to give transmission protection ... and we are not making a huge call for boosters and some vax centers close over the Christmas period?

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

Just for clarity: No top line does not mean no death or harms due to vaccines : These are well established and will certainly have affected NZ as well What it does mean though is that it invalidates the idea that vaccines led to significant deaths (say "in the 100s") in NZ

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

Why am I writing this? Because I see a lot of eminent professors (incl from Stanford, Harvard,etc.) essentially wasting their and everybody's time trying to spin analyses which, at the core, are actually adding nothing, scientifically speaking 7/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

I remember this interview of Anders Tegnell back in April 2020 To this day, I have not seen the information that he used to make the decision for Sweden to not close like all other countries while knowing that Imperial had put an IFR of 1% 1/6

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

Purely on logical grounds, if the aim of a scientist is to make scientific progress on the topic of vax mortality, the only analysis that will achieve this is to find a signal in New Zealand Until then, the conclusion is "there is no signal" 8/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

Interesting development: The Netherlands health authorities will no longer report covid deaths So the only measure of covid deaths as of 2023 will be the dutch stats office, who needs unfortunately 4 months to consolidate the data (there are rules to be observed) 1/

📊 Ruben van Gaalen

@rubenivangaalen

2 years

Elk nadeel heeft zijn voordeel: Nu hoef ik nooit meer berichtgevingen in de media over het totaal aantal coronadoden te corrigeren. Het werkelijk aantal ligt altijd al ~dubbel zo hoog (46k) dan het bij GGD-en gemelde, door RIVM gerapporteerde aantal (23k).

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

11 months

Germany sees a strong resurgence of covid since quite some weeks now What is interesting is that it seems that the eastern part of the country is now significantly more affected than the western part

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

Covid in Sweden: The ascent continues and beds occupied "with covid" are now at 80% of those at the peak of the BA.1/2 wave This sudden growth continues to puzzles me ... Also let's see how this will weigh on admissions / deaths "FOR" covid (there is a bit of a lag)

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

Let me make this very concrete: IF you see any analysis outside of New Zealand with a claim of big vax mortality signal, you can literally share the next tweet (almost) without knowing the context sentence and kill the argument 9/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

However, any analysis done outside of New Zealand in countries with good death data and high vaccination will invariably have seen overlapping covid and vaccine This basically "kills" any signal of high vaccine deaths that someone may find (I couldn't but let's be open) 2/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

10 months

Forget the 100% level, that's just me choosing a moment to calibrate all indicators But in absolute terms, admissions (note: "for covid") look to be at an all time high in Finland: not 2023, over the whole pandemic ... Fortunately, cases seems to peak but still ...

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Covid in 🇧🇪: Do you see what I see? An inflection point!!

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

Germany has stopped producing testing data but has quite an elaborate surveillance data (ARS) with 50k covid tests per week spread over age bands and Bundesländer According to this sample, the positivity rate has never been as high among the 80+ Surprising, to say the least

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

Sorry, I just killed my thread on the Danish study on impact of covid on immune system I just realize that the set-up "infected" "uninfected" (used as control) de facto assumes that only 40% of the 50+ got infected in 2022 which looks extremely low (UK was almost 100%)

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

SAMRC / @MRCza released estimated and expected deaths by narrow-ish age bands for South Africa This is what excess mortality looks like when you age standardize to a European Population The waves of Spain and England + Wales in Spring 2020 look like bumps in comparison 1/2

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Covid in 🇧🇪: May I present? My screensaver for the weekend! Cases? -20% on a week Admissions? now clearly down Weather? Sunshine I declare today a good day!

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

I was always intrigued by what led Sweden to follow its path at the beginning of the pandemic and never really came to analyse it So I shared this and got lots of superb material! It allowed me to develop a clearer picture of what happened back then not only SE but overall⤵️

Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

I remember this interview of Anders Tegnell back in April 2020 To this day, I have not seen the information that he used to make the decision for Sweden to not close like all other countries while knowing that Imperial had put an IFR of 1% 1/6

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

News go through the 🇧🇪 press this morning that 31% of the hospitalizations were fully vaccinated at the beginning of August Repeat after me ➡️This is proof that VACCINES ARE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE ➡️We would have ALMOST 6X MORE HOSPITALIZATION WITHOUT VACCINES at the moment

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

And the analysis I did here adds more water to the mill that the reason for the unexplained excess deaths lies mainly with the issues faced by the NHS (and not vaccines or delayed treatment) END

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

4 months

On "excess and vaccines", BMJ issued this clarification It is technically correct: The paper did not mention vaccine as possible cause That link was made by The Telegraph which simply quoted the opinion of a scientist independently of the paper and used itas title But

BMJ Group

@bmj_company

4 months

Statement in response to misreporting of BMJ Public Health @BMJPublicHealth research on excess deaths since the COVID-19 pandemic. Link:

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

The Dutch health authority @rivm has been systematically and MASSIVELY (40-70%) underreporting covid deaths for the whole of the pandemic I am honestly at a loss as to why a) nothing changed in 2 years b) there is not even a warning of a big issue on its page with death data

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

And just to prevent some obvious attempts at twisting the New Zealand data, here a few additional things Trends to determine expected deaths need to include population development and mortality gains, forget any "average of x years of deaths" END

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

Why? Because, at the end of the day, any signal will come from either spikes of deaths at the moment of vax or increasing levels of deaths after vax And outside New Zealand, this will invariably find an equally valid explanation with covid (and possibly other reasons) 3/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

Excess deaths beyond covid deaths are going through the roof in Germany ... and still nobody can reasonably explain why

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

In this @unherd column, @SunetraGupta asks the Q: "how wrong was I to suggest that average IFR was 0.05-0.10% back in 2020?" The answer is - "By a factor of 5-10 for DNK" (per official data) - "By a factor 5-25 overall" if UK is anything to go by It's quite simple really ⤵️

UnHerd

@unherd

1 year

For suggesting that the average IFR of Covid-19 might be between 0.01% and 0.05% in 2020, I was mocked by large sections of the media. But was this fair? | @SunetraGupta

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

What the New Zealand data shows is no top-level impact on mortality from vaccines So this invalidates those claims (which still regularly occur) that there are "massive deaths from covid vaccines" END

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Well I am back and the first thing I need to do is to debunk this fake news title by @lalibrebe ... No, 50% of the admissions in New York are not <5yo 50% of all CHILDREN admissions are under 5yo (as it is actually written in the @AFP press release)

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

When I saw this study claiming that LC was no more prevalent in covid positive than negative, my immediate reaction was "isn't its CI too wide for measuring anything relevant given that LC is a 1%-ish factor?" Turns out the answer is yes, ie the study is useless by design 1/3

Make SEN make sense

@OmicronData

2 years

Theres a study doing the rounds which basically shows that Long COVID is statistically no more likely in COVID positive than COVID negative people. The study is decent but I think being misrepresented somewhat. A few thoughts.

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

@SusanMichie @VictimOfMaths The data on the same dashboard by ONS This is also the source now used for the UK on Our World in Data Here the data for the UK 2022: 5,688 2021: 5,142 2020: 1,697

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

There were fantasy estimates circulating about covid's deadliness being actually "not that high" The province of Bergamo saw excess deaths equivalent to 0.45% of its population in March 2020 Not "% of infections": % of TOTAL POP Not "over the pandemic": in ONE MONTH

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

The gold standard for an ED analysis is doing it using age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) which I did, using narrow age bands When you compare these with the historic trend, you see that indeed, there is no real major excess deaths in 2022 not explanable by covid 2/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

When I shared a chart on South Africa yesterday which showed how the covid waves were almost as hard for the <65 as for 65+, someone mentioned "same with Bulgaria" I forgot that I had a full tool for every EUROSTAT country so I just plugged Bulgaria in there Wow, Indeed 1/3

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

In order to see this, I looked at deaths vs. expected and covid for the 0-44 and smoothed the data on 5 week averages What comes through is that the unexplained excess deaths always come in combination with covid waves in 2020 and 2021 ... 7/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

I was wondering if it was a hoax as I didn't hear anything but it is now official: The ONS infection survey is back and will run from Nov 23 to Mar 24 with 200k participants

UKHSA and ONS launch new Winter COVID-19 Infection Study

A study to gather vital data on COVID-19 this winter has been launched by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

www.gov.uk

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

There is plenty of excess deaths in the <65 age band! And these excess deaths suddenly came through in Fall 2021 and since April 2022 4/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Boosters in 🇧🇪: There is some movement but we lost a month in the booster campaign of the 65-84 Surprising? Not really when it's not headline news, and top of comunication agenda by PM and MPs (FWIW: BBC provides an update on boosters every day during its main news bulletins)

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Covid in 🇧🇪: rather good news on a grey morning As I was more or less sure yesterday, the growth rate (R) seems to decrease again (except in Brussels) 1/2

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

So everything points at the pressures on the NHS as being the trigger for these unexpected excess deaths This adds more elements to something which is being widely suspected, among others recently by @ActuaryByDay 10/

stuart mcdonald

@ActuaryByDay

2 years

Analysis by @LCP_Actuaries for @Independent shows that the crisis in A&E can be linked to more than 15,000 deaths in the last six months. Up to 500 patients a week are dying because of long waits for emergency care.

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Covid in 🇧🇪: Flanders is well beyond the peak and R is now negative (hurray!) Wallonia seems also to have passed a peak and Brussels may be about to do so too 1/N

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 months

Through its infection and Long Covid survey, ONS provides everything needed for ballpark estimates on the current situation for the 16-64 Risk of developing condition end 2023 Overall: ~1.5% Severe: ~0.3% % of pop with condition end 2023 Overall ~3% Severe ~0.5% Details below

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

So the story is a bit more complex than put in the press: / Compared to pre-pandemic years, there is little excess deaths unexplainable by covid / But this is the result of quite some excess deaths among the youth and lower than expected deaths among the older generations 11/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

4 months

A content-free article in @bmj_company nicely spun by @TheTelegraph__ led to a spike in "excess deaths caused by vaccines?" narratives Just a quick reminder that the New Zealand data in fact clinches the topic: Vaccines cannot be a major cause of excess

Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

My thread on why New Zealand "demonstrates" that vaccines cannot be the source of huge deaths due to vaccines created quite a stir Some seem to have a hard time to believe it and come up with quite some hand-waving to say it's wrong Let me summarize all my checks here

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

So, at best, the value added to "the science" of any such analysis is "we did an analysis and we were not able to be conclude either way" So progress is zero ... 4/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

As I show below, any claim of major vaccine mortality is invalidated by the New Zealand data I hadn't realized that New Zealand had released its death by cause data so I had a deeper look The result is even fewer signs of vaccine mortality but a few things requiring analysis ⤵️

Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

NZE is the only country in the world with high vax, good death data and vax happening before and not in parallel with covid It saw no excess in the<60, which is not attributable to covid This de facto kills any claim of high vax deaths made elsewhere, let me explain⤵️

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

5 months

WARNING: @moderna_tx misuses here the study by @StatCan_eng The study does not provide with the risk of developing LC by infx but by REPORTED infx The study explicitly suspects huge underestimation of infxs From UK data, the total prevalence of LC is about 3% (not 30-40%)

Moderna

@moderna_tx

5 months

Your risk of #LongCOVID rises with each additional infection. A recent study has shown that by their third COVID infection, patients have a 40% chance of developing Long COVID symptoms. Learn more about the threat of Long COVID:

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Edifying: Full vaccination level vs. incidence in 🇩🇪 (via @rki_de and @risklayer )

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

Germany updated its deaths by causes / The spikes of circulatory deaths continue to be in sync with covid / Many deaths due to covid are likely to not be diagnosed as such (for every 3 death for covid, there are 2 additional deaths where covid is officially only "contributary")

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

7 months

What's the value to lockdown vs. a voluntary approach? The Swedish approach allowed for some circulation which is reflected in the "long-tail" of deaths in wave 1 Apply this to Belgium, and it would have seen 60% more deaths Conclusion: Lockdowns reduce deaths of a wave by 40%

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

On the topic of under-reporting of Covid deaths: Switzerland Its Stats Office updated its monthly deaths by main cause up to end 2022: As in Germany, clearly there are some circulatory deaths which were "for covid" Not only that ... 1/3

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

Something seems to be have suddenly changed a few days ago in Denmark as both cases and admissions now show strong growth (from fortunately a low base) 1/3

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Covid in 🇫🇷: Among the metropoles I follow, Paris is now completely off-the-charts a) Incidence of 3,600 (= 1 in 30 tested positive last week) b) Admissions at the peak level of Autumn 2020 Of course, Paris cumulates a strong delta wave with an Omicron wave but still ...

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

One could now look at these figures of the <44 and think that the reason for these excess deaths could be vaccine related Well, it does absolutely not match the pattern ... while covid DOES match the pattern 6/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

@paix_tolerance1 Yes, I heard about that theory. It has one snag: It doens't even have a leg to stand on as it matches no pattern Don't get me wrong: I will continue to follow those who believe that theory but not bother until someone comes with something serious 1/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

London provides more encouraging news after England released its weekly report on ICU figures (up to 3/1) Cases seem to have hit a high and admissions seem to track them at 40-50% of Delta ICU remains essentially decoupled from admissions Fingers crossed that this continues!

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

Let me finish with this chart which summarizes in many ways the pandemic quite well All was fine and then in April 2020 all hell broke loose (and everyone can project his/her favorite as to why this happened :-) END

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

Why are there reports in the press about very high excess deaths in E+W? Because most of these reports compare with some historic data (say 2019 or 2015-2019) As you see, this underestimates deaths from demographic evolution (green dots) and hence overestimate excess deaths 1/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

Two days ago, I got struck by this chart shared by @TracyBethHoeg which showed a massive spike in deaths among 25-44 year-old in Florida And I think I know why: This is caused by covid and probably when there was a collapse / overload of the healthcare system Thread ⤵️

Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD

@TracyBethHoeg

2 years

And what of this concerning signal of increased all-cause mortality in 25-44 year olds which seems to correspond with initial vaccine/college mandates. If this were covid, why would there only be one spike like this?

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

The Great Barrington declaration has been hammering since the start that governments should have simply shielded populations at risk and provided some proposals for this I always wondered so I plugged some numbers on it Result? The strategy is unrealistically risky⤵️

Martin Kulldorff

@MartinKulldorff

2 years

It will take decades, but the only way to gradually restore trust in the scientific community is to first come clean about the misguided, disastrous and unscientific covid policies that too many scientists supported.

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

4 months

Interestingly, Portugal has seen a rebound of covid since a few weeks Why do I find this interesting? Because it shows that covid (at least still) has the capacity to come through in summer conditions 1/2

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

9 months

A quick update on Italy: Unsurprisingly, it also saw a covid wave in December but it seems to be over the peak now What is interesting, is that it saw a first peak in October and then another one in December 1/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

while, in 2022, after another spike in Jan-Feb (when Omicron entered the arena), the excess deaths then suddenly jumped up as of April ... / when the recent issues with the NHS started / at a moment when these age bands were not elligible for any new boosters 8/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

10 months

If we look at incidences from surveys and more or less systematic tests available over the pandemic, 4,000 is a level not seen since mid 2022 The fact that the incidence in Rheinland-Pfalz is accelerating is not a sign of a peak soon hmm... 2/2

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

6 months

I only realize now this high profile study done early on in the pandemic putting covid IFR at 0.17% (cf. below) Interestingly, for reasons I don't understand - It did not share the figure for the US which was at 0.35% - it did get its 70+ estimate wrong by a factor of 3 THREAD

Jay Bhattacharya

@DrJBhattacharya

6 months

@rdmorris Hey Bob, Here's a link to the final version of the peer-reviewed paper, published in the International Journal of Epidemiology. Thanks for publicizing it! It is already one of the most highly cited seroprevalence studies of the covid era. Jay

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

1 year

Germany released its monthly deaths by cause stats up to October 2022 This highlights - a significant covid spike in October (remember, admissions were almost at all time highs back time) - a continued trend of circulatory deaths actually likely to be caused by covid 1/

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

There is one aspect which I don't see integrated in intra-year excess death analyses Despite what you see , there is no excess in Germany in Fall 2021 The pandemic led to a shift of the seasonal peak and this has deep implications on what are excess deaths Let me explain⤵️

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

4 months

England and Germany have periodic randomized infection surveys which allows to estimate the average duration between infections By inferring the missing data (more below), it looks as if the duration has remained roughly unchanged over the last year in England, at ~1.5 years

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

5 months

Just for clarity: Vaccines do have side effects and led to admissions and deaths and need to be scrutinized But there is no signal that links them to systematic heart disease excess END

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

3 years

Also my analysis shows that schools are a key vector of transmission at the moment in Belgium and we probably need to look at ways to reduce this But can we please stop talking about motors? Nobody (and certainly not kids!) is deliberately spreading the virus, we are all victims

HLN.BE

@HLN_BE

3 years

Geert Molenberghs: “Kinderen zijn motor van de pandemie. We moeten die proberen stilleggen”

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

@VPrasadMDMPH "Noone has developed a method to separate admissions with from those for" Just for the record 🇧🇪 🇩🇰 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 🇸🇪 🇨🇭 all have such a method Not only that, in all these countries, the ratio "for" to "with" has remained constant since Omicron (~50-70% in function of the country)

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

So first, what is my demonstration: it is quite simple NZE is the only country where covid happened after vaccination yet there are no spike of death signal in the <60 in 2021 Here is the explanation in more details 1/

Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

8 months

NZE is the only country in the world with high vax, good death data and vax happening before and not in parallel with covid It saw no excess in the<60, which is not attributable to covid This de facto kills any claim of high vax deaths made elsewhere, let me explain⤵️

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

2) On the pandemic dynamic: Despite the very high estimates of infection from ONS estimates (200%), the “variant soup” period seems to have seen notoriously fewer infections We may be seeing covid losing some of its steam: I hope that we will see this confirmed in 2023! END

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

Yesterday, I looked at the relative evolution of IFR by age bands over time based on the England and Wales ONS data The absolute figures show one additional striking thing Except for the 0-11, every age band now has a much lower death risk than the age band below it 1/4

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Jean Fisch

@Jean__Fisch

2 years

Weekly look at admissions growth rate in Western Europe The feeling I got from Belgium's and England's data earlier this week seems to get confirmed: This wave does not seem to be going as strong as the previous ones That would be good news!

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