🧵Some unsolicited advice: Don't buy a
#house
right now. Period. Rent in the interim. Then wait for $'s to fall.
This is absolutely terrible financial advice & completely misrepresents the state of not only Nashville's market, but US RE, in general
How is the RealPage lawsuit not getting more coverage here locally? This is a national anti trust case taking place in Nashville regarding rent price fixing. Below is an excerpt from California's class action complaint. I believe all lawsuits have been consolidated to Nashville.
1/12) This ones for all those
#STR
influencers- just out there livin' their best lives.....at your expense.
But Kenny, STRs are only ~.8% of the U.S. housing supply- not a problem! WRONG.
Case in point,
#Nashville
:
@m3_melody
@TrishaFLsun
@MrAwsumb
One of many reasons it pays to look at household survey employment numbers.
Jan 1960 - May 2024
Basically, younger people are getting run over- losing their jobs, they're mostly renters. Notice a theme yet?
1/2) Tried to tell you airport traffic was slowing in Nashville (BNA). Seasonality aside, it's actually negative Y/Y.
No different than the national trend, other than the rate of contraction. 🤠☺️
@MacroEdgeRes
@DonMiami3
#consumer
#economy
@j77324
@DisruptorStocks
$DG is one ugly looking chart. I don't follow the stock too closely, but I do recall them saying in June they were lowering their full year guidance because their customer base was trading down to food banks. That's right, food banks.
Why would a national landlord be advertising "special offers" on some of their properties if the consumer is so "resilient"?
"other" means no special offer on the rental
And Florida is not alone
#inflation
#economy
#recession
#rent
#housing
Home prices are staying stubbornly high because there’s enough homebuying demand to prop them up 👉
#realestate
• Our Homebuyer Demand Index is at its highest level since last July
• Home tours are up 33% since the start of the year
Anyone else wonder what % of new builds over the years were consumed by STRs in your area? I was running an
#airbnb
scrape for
#Nashville
yesterday (check in/out 10/5-8), & I'd say very conservatively 60%+ look to be ~2015 or newer construction.
#reflexivity
#idiocracy
#ZIRP
Those who either deny or question
#rent
prices broadly coming under pressure are ignoring reality. They suggest it's an isolated occurrence, and those of us sounding the alarm are merely cherry picking.
FWIW, I think my Zillow for rent sample is more than adequate
@MrAwsumb
1/2) Friendly reminder as it relates to the ADP report today: Leisure and Hospitality jobs pick up around Feb/March each year- totally normal.
Here it is via FRED....
@DonMiami3
@MacroEdgeRes
@dedkatbouns
#labor
Was curious about
#Lennar
's invty: definitely seeing widespread discounting across pretty much every market they're in (well at least according to what's listed on their website):
#housing
#homebuilders
#realestate
$LEN
#economy
Textbook example of cherry picking- looking at a segment of the housing stock in isolation and/or approaching the topic from purely a starts/UC etc angle is exceptionally dumb.
Nashville keeps doing that thing where active inventory continues to climb and I need to add new lines to the top of my chart.
25% more inventory YoY and almost 8% MoM.
12/12) Lots more to this analysis and it's all pointing in the same direction, but let me just leave you with 1 nugget
By my VERY conservative estimates, STRs have TRIPLED as a share Nashville's
#housing
invty since 2015!
So YEAH its a problem
Think this helped affordability?!
So let's look at the absolute broadest measure of household debt- which conveniently ignores all the iterations that actually provide true insight- and assume everything is fine. Meaningless!
Household credit quality is stabilizing. The delinquency rate on all debt stood at 1.82% in December, which is about what it was in August. Credit card delinquency is still edging up, but delinquency on all other loans is flat to down, including auto and consumer finance. This
Straight from the MLS- well the homebuying season is off to a stronnggg start in Nashville/Davidson county 🙃
March Sales Y/Y%
Single Family: - 17%
All properties: -21%
This built in tool is absolutely terrible, but I'll show it anyways
#realestate
#housing
Over 16,000 apartments are vacant in Nashville, equating to an 11% vacancy rate, and the construction pipeline is booming. Is Music City headed for oversupply?
The number of times a day I hear people say the solution to Nashville's "housing shortage" is to revamp zoning or build more to satisfy this so called "demand" is nothing short of retarded. Please show me the data point to substantiate your claims
Again, I'm not surprised today's #'s show continued claims gradually moving higher. Initial/continued, seasonally/not seasonally adjusted- all shown here for adequate context. It's not the only signal, but the accumulation of claims matters, even with changes to UI benefits
Short-term rental provider Frontdesk lays off entire staff, on the verge of shutting down
"The startup’s business model, which is leasing apartments at market rental rates and furnishing them for short-term rentals in more than 30 markets"
- 🏠 Existing home Prices are -5% from record high
- 📉 New home sales plummet by a whopping -18% from peak
- 🌐 No end in sight for lower prices, as the market grapples with persistent challenges.
- 📈 Brace for continued turbulence in the real estate sector.
#RealEstate
1/4) Back to the homebuilders. If a large national operation is running promos in nearly every market they're in what does that tell u? Thousands of units here just fyi
- Move in ready/under construction properties only
- Respective discounting, or not (ie other).
#housing
@DonMiami3
Is it bad if your customer base is trading down to food banks? Cant make this stuff up! And where are they located?
#Nashville
. Well technically Goodlettsville- close enough. $DG
Still not quite getting it
@DianaOlick
For starters, I probably would've picked someone other than a local developer to get a feel for demand.
1. Rent Estimates vs Vacancy Rates (ApartmentList)
2. Pending Sales vs Homes Sold/Inventory (Redfin)
#Nashville
#realestate
@m3_melody
3/12) By triangulating STRs in MLS data, we can see they are making their way onto the market with higher frequency and represent a growing share of what's being listed.
What in the real estate bubble hell is this abomination found in Zillow?
Hopefully ground leases do not become a trend - but apparently “Groundly” is trying to make it happen
@NipseyHoussle
With a little bit of technical analysis, I am bullish evictions 🙃
The longer we slow walk it, the higher this goes. Both the share of cost burdened homes and evictions rates were lower pre COVID.
Now run it against rent vacancy rates and see if you notice anything.
Cheers!
Keeping with rents for a second, Nashville has a ton apartment units under construction compared to other metros according to Jay Parsons himself. No, really- do you think this might help prices come down? Pair this with the BPS data and it will tell u we've overbuilt.
I'm guessing this developer ran out of $- these 2 builds look to be abandoned. Have been "under construction" for wayyyyyy too long. Prime location too.
Rare to see this in town
909A & B Gale Lane Nashville 37204
Can we please get rid of the perpetual humble brag that is linkedin?
How many times can some rando exploit the most basic, adult prerequisites and re frame it as "life changing"
Fifth Third Center, the third-largest office building in downtown Nashville, has been listed for sale.
Blackstone Real Estate paid $144.8M for the tower in 2019.
#commercialrealestate
6/12) Obviously, the smaller properties are less responsive to DOM bleed, but I STRONGLY suspect this will change given that Nashville's rent vacancy rate is sitting at ~20 yr highs, with tons of MF supply to come; and there's been TONS of MF permitting as of late. Yee haw!🤠
There are other factors at play as well here- consider investor demand for real estate and how that might influence home values. Showing a few other metros just so you see the general trend.
Who you think is gonna be left holding the bag?
Source: Redfin
I just got dumber by listening to this interview. No part of
@DaveRamsey
's rambling bullshit is supported by the data.
Incomes aren't keeping up with home $'s- lots of households largest cost
Can u guess what Davidson County looks like or do I need to show that too?
#inflation
@mackandme123
My name is Will and I intentionally try to mislead my audience for personal gain. Since your dollars are measured in YoY chg, that's how I'll present rents!
"It's the same data"
See how they trick you? Same data- 2 ways
4/12) Just like true residences, STRs are sitting on the market longer, and as a result, are starting to reduce their list price. Larger STR properties (ie HPR detached) are seeing the most pricing pressure thus far, but they're not alone. MF in on it too- & I see u NOO!
So let's look at Nashville as an example- where the data clearly points to softening demand. It may not be reflected in the price just yet, but there are clear signs of what's to come. Pending Sales/Homes Sold/% sold above LP moving 🔽, DOM/$ cuts/Invty moving 🔼= $ 🔽
S: Redfin
Plus u gotta watch rents because people have options:
"Should I rent or buy?"
And usually when rent vacancies are high, rent prices fall, which work in lockstep with home prices. But
#RealPage
seems to have changed this dynamic, at least temporarily.
Source: Apartment List
10/12) There are clear signs of owner occupancy fraud and DSCR lending here locally, Nashville's job growth is decelerating (continued claims rising statewide too), BNA passenger traffic is slowing, and the mix of small STR investors suggests outsized pressure points.
I'll say it again- the average weekly benefit hasn't kept up with the average weekly wage. Aka declining replacement rates.....
Pulling this data from the DOL is unnecessarily complicated, but it's all there
Worth a read
@j77324
@calculatedrisk
Wow that's out of touch- almost like comparing apples to oranges Bill. At the time, did anyone in the administration ever think about doing a cost benefit on expanding the money supply like they did?
A bit of local flavor on
#rent
trends- for those interested in future supply #'s. One of many reasons why I think
#Nashville
's
#housing
prices will behave differently in this cycle. But still think it's going to take some time for this to play out.
We all know the Nashville supply story is crazy and now for the first time I’m seeing a 5 month concession on a lease-up in the Gulch!
It feels like a race to the bottom.
Anyone else noticed just how ridiculous these agent remarks have become in MLS recently?
It's always been exaggerated, but good lord.
"You can rent it out- short term/long term- doesn't matter!".......Without verifying any of it.
mmmkay
1/3) Seen Zillow's Rent Index mentioned quite a few times post CPI. Remember there are multiple cuts of that data.
Here's Nashville metro- interesting, right? Looks like some typical seasonality, but otherwise we're doing a slow walk down.
@mrawsumb
Everybody loves to dunk on Dave- it's just so easy.
But he holds a special place in my heart because he perfectly exemplifies the level of stupidity I have to deal with on a daily basis. Plus he's a local
A proper asshole leans into their own ignorance
The stats right now are alarming:
• 21% of young adults are delaying getting married.
• 31% of young adults are delaying moving out of their parents’ home.
• 40% of young adults are delaying saving for retirement.
• 47% of young adults are delaying buying a home.
All
Misdirection- nice!
You see what they do with their carefully crafted language?
Zoom out- home prices peaked in a lot of markets in 2022. And there's this thing called seasonality. Oops
#realestate
#housing
There are now no major U.S. metro areas where home prices are falling.
Despite demand cooling a bit as mortgage rates rise, there are enough buyers out there to keep prices propped up 👉
#realestate
The approximately 1 million apartments under construction nationally as of the third quarter is outpacing demand and tempering rent growth in many markets.
Lots of misinformation out there, especially on all things housing- hard to know whats real.
Some unsolicited advice: be suspicious of anyone who only shows data over a short time frame, doesn't cite sources, or claims to not like bacon.
Cut through the noise
Nashville’s rental market is tilting, or maybe falling, in favor of renters. As the city experiences its highest vacancy rate in 20 years, apartment owners are competing for renters with waived fees and free rent deals.
Even though home sales are quite low historically, investors continue to capture a larger piece of the pie.
Fuck. That.
#realestate
#housing
#speculation
Immerse yourself in the luxury of this breathtaking penthouse on the 32nd floor of Broadwest! 😍✨
Listed by Danielle Helling and Mark Deutschmann - The CityLiving Group • 1616 West End Ave 3202 • Nashville • MLS# 2594282 • $5,799,900
I wonder why sellers are reducing their price...
Closed deals in
#Nashville
(search area displayed)
Past 4 months in order: September- Dec (thru 12.22)
Same data (from MLS)- cut 3 ways
#RealEstate
Yields are down sharply today on the bad jobs data. The job market is softening now at a swifter pace.
This is *short-term* positive relief for markets as noted by Kantrowitz yesterday and also aligns with 10y3m/SPX model.