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Kenny Capital

@KennyCap_Phd

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3,129
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Nashville, TN
Joined July 2023
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
🧵Some unsolicited advice: Don't buy a #house right now. Period. Rent in the interim. Then wait for $'s to fall. This is absolutely terrible financial advice & completely misrepresents the state of not only Nashville's market, but US RE, in general
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
Bullish idiocracy Total Housing Units= Occupied (OO & RO) + Vacant Units 🪇🎹🎵💩🤫🖤😶 #housing #affordability #inflation #realestate #demographics #PowerBI #dystopian #music #CharlotteFever
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
8 months
How is the RealPage lawsuit not getting more coverage here locally? This is a national anti trust case taking place in Nashville regarding rent price fixing. Below is an excerpt from California's class action complaint. I believe all lawsuits have been consolidated to Nashville.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
3 months
@TikTokInvestors I work at KPMG, and I daydream about playing in traffic
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
5 months
1/3) If Nashville had a "supply" issue, this would not be happening. @m3_melody @TrishaFLsun @MrAwsumb #realestate #housing
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
9 months
1/12) This ones for all those #STR influencers- just out there livin' their best lives.....at your expense. But Kenny, STRs are only ~.8% of the U.S. housing supply- not a problem! WRONG. Case in point, #Nashville : @m3_melody @TrishaFLsun @MrAwsumb
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
29 days
One of many reasons it pays to look at household survey employment numbers. Jan 1960 - May 2024 Basically, younger people are getting run over- losing their jobs, they're mostly renters. Notice a theme yet?
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
@AustinWhittRE must be some strong koolaid
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
1/2) Tried to tell you airport traffic was slowing in Nashville (BNA). Seasonality aside, it's actually negative Y/Y. No different than the national trend, other than the rate of contraction. 🤠☺️ @MacroEdgeRes @DonMiami3 #consumer #economy
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
8 months
@j77324 @DisruptorStocks $DG is one ugly looking chart. I don't follow the stock too closely, but I do recall them saying in June they were lowering their full year guidance because their customer base was trading down to food banks. That's right, food banks.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
1 month
@RudyHavenstein how to milk a donkey
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
9 months
Why would a national landlord be advertising "special offers" on some of their properties if the consumer is so "resilient"? "other" means no special offer on the rental And Florida is not alone #inflation #economy #recession #rent #housing
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
3 months
Complete and total🐂💩 Let's make this easy to understand- at a national level, home sales are extremely low right now. That's the opposite of demand.
@Redfin
Redfin
3 months
Home prices are staying stubbornly high because there’s enough homebuying demand to prop them up 👉 #realestate • Our Homebuyer Demand Index is at its highest level since last July • Home tours are up 33% since the start of the year
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
Here's what inventory looks like in Nashville for zip code 37203, which is immediately downtown. Again, right downtown Always helps to look at this data at a very granular level @m3_melody @MrAwsumb @TheBondFreak #housing #realestate
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
6 months
Only in real estate would technology actually make things worse- thanks iBuyers, Realpage, and any other honorable mention I left out
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
The second I stop seeing this dude's face plastered on every billboard and bus stop in town, I'll know the tide has shifted.....
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
6 months
Demand, huh? Where? 🔈☝️🪇🎸🎶 Retweet this if you're sick and tired of all the bold faced liars in real estate. #housing #speculation #economy
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
10 months
Anyone else wonder what % of new builds over the years were consumed by STRs in your area? I was running an #airbnb scrape for #Nashville yesterday (check in/out 10/5-8), & I'd say very conservatively 60%+ look to be ~2015 or newer construction. #reflexivity #idiocracy #ZIRP
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
9 months
Those who either deny or question #rent prices broadly coming under pressure are ignoring reality. They suggest it's an isolated occurrence, and those of us sounding the alarm are merely cherry picking. FWIW, I think my Zillow for rent sample is more than adequate @MrAwsumb
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
3 months
1/2) Friendly reminder as it relates to the ADP report today: Leisure and Hospitality jobs pick up around Feb/March each year- totally normal. Here it is via FRED.... @DonMiami3 @MacroEdgeRes @dedkatbouns #labor
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
3 months
@dampedspring @chigrl @TheKingCourt here it is normalized (NSA)
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
Think I should call into the show?
@GayBearRes
GBR, LLC
2 months
Caller’s wife wants to sell their house in Denver over concerns of a collapse. Dave Ramsey mocks the idea. Meanwhile in Denver…(next post)
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
10 months
Was curious about #Lennar 's invty: definitely seeing widespread discounting across pretty much every market they're in (well at least according to what's listed on their website): #housing #homebuilders #realestate $LEN #economy
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
5 months
"100 people a day are moving to Nashville"- said every clueless realtor regurgitating a vague stat some banker force fed them.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
Textbook example of cherry picking- looking at a segment of the housing stock in isolation and/or approaching the topic from purely a starts/UC etc angle is exceptionally dumb.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
20 days
Shhhh- don't tell Dave!
@AustinWhittRE
Austin Whitt
20 days
Nashville keeps doing that thing where active inventory continues to climb and I need to add new lines to the top of my chart. 25% more inventory YoY and almost 8% MoM.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
9 months
12/12) Lots more to this analysis and it's all pointing in the same direction, but let me just leave you with 1 nugget By my VERY conservative estimates, STRs have TRIPLED as a share Nashville's #housing invty since 2015! So YEAH its a problem Think this helped affordability?!
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
5 months
2/3) Denial is a great way to make poor financial choices, but go for it if you prefer fairy tales.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
6 months
So let's look at the absolute broadest measure of household debt- which conveniently ignores all the iterations that actually provide true insight- and assume everything is fine. Meaningless!
@Markzandi
Mark Zandi
6 months
Household credit quality is stabilizing. The delinquency rate on all debt stood at 1.82% in December, which is about what it was in August. Credit card delinquency is still edging up, but delinquency on all other loans is flat to down, including auto and consumer finance. This
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
6 months
It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion. Dollywood here we come! #realestate #housing #TN
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
10 months
Just got off the phone with a SF #Homebuilder in town- guy tried to convince me the appraisers were conspiring with banks to manipulate LTVs. #reflexivity #speculation #housingbubble #economy #housing #realestate #nashville @TrishaFLsun
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
3 months
Straight from the MLS- well the homebuying season is off to a stronnggg start in Nashville/Davidson county 🙃 March Sales Y/Y% Single Family: - 17% All properties: -21% This built in tool is absolutely terrible, but I'll show it anyways #realestate #housing
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
5 months
Well guys, sometimes the jokes write themselves- the banana hammock is officially for sale.
@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
6 months
Giiiirrrrl, Nashville was bananas...... #airbnb #STR #housing #RealEstate
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
5 months
@trdny
The Real Deal
5 months
Over 16,000 apartments are vacant in Nashville, equating to an 11% vacancy rate, and the construction pipeline is booming. Is Music City headed for oversupply?
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
5 months
The number of times a day I hear people say the solution to Nashville's "housing shortage" is to revamp zoning or build more to satisfy this so called "demand" is nothing short of retarded. Please show me the data point to substantiate your claims
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
5 months
Again, I'm not surprised today's #'s show continued claims gradually moving higher. Initial/continued, seasonally/not seasonally adjusted- all shown here for adequate context. It's not the only signal, but the accumulation of claims matters, even with changes to UI benefits
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
6 months
@JohnWake
John Wake
6 months
Short-term rental provider Frontdesk lays off entire staff, on the verge of shutting down "The startup’s business model, which is leasing apartments at market rental rates and furnishing them for short-term rentals in more than 30 markets"
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
1/2) Redfin does a terrible job disclosing the differences in their weekly and monthly datasets. Screenshot from their weekly report:
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
Real estate prices can actually fall? Hmmm that's odd. I think @1CoastalJournal might be onto something here. 😉😊 #realestate #housing
@1CoastalJournal
The Coastal Journal
7 months
- 🏠 Existing home Prices are -5% from record high - 📉 New home sales plummet by a whopping -18% from peak - 🌐 No end in sight for lower prices, as the market grapples with persistent challenges. - 📈 Brace for continued turbulence in the real estate sector. #RealEstate
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
8 months
1/4) Back to the homebuilders. If a large national operation is running promos in nearly every market they're in what does that tell u? Thousands of units here just fyi - Move in ready/under construction properties only - Respective discounting, or not (ie other). #housing
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
Still not quite getting it @DianaOlick For starters, I probably would've picked someone other than a local developer to get a feel for demand. 1. Rent Estimates vs Vacancy Rates (ApartmentList) 2. Pending Sales vs Homes Sold/Inventory (Redfin) #Nashville #realestate @m3_melody
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@m3_melody
Melody Wright
7 months
It’s fascinating to me how up-to-speed CNBC is <s> 🙃 @KennyCap_Phd @MrAwsumb
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
9 months
3/12) By triangulating STRs in MLS data, we can see they are making their way onto the market with higher frequency and represent a growing share of what's being listed.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
28 days
How many times do we need to drill this concept into peoples heads before they understand just how flawed this bullshit measure is?
@MyLordBebo
Lord Bebo
30 days
🇬🇧🚨‼️ When the government says they have lowered inflation to 2% that’s what they mean. That’s a scam …
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
1/2) Couple more charts while I'm at it: Level and share- investor purchases
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
3 months
Bullish Austin
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
3 months
Austin is a hot mess #realestate #housing
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@GayBearRes
GBR, LLC
3 months
Let’s hear how recent homebuyers in Austin are doing
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
You know, I've heard lobotomies are part of the onboarding process over at Ramsey Solutions
@TrishaFLsun
TrishaFLSun
2 months
For anyone who didn't know already... That 30% is off the gross commission for each sale.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
@FOXNashville this is what happens when people get bored in life- they make💩up to complain about.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
8 months
Confirmed- we've reached max stupidity as a society.... #realestate #housing #inflation #Nashville #HousingCrisis
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@WagieCapital
Wagie Capital
8 months
What in the real estate bubble hell is this abomination found in Zillow? Hopefully ground leases do not become a trend - but apparently “Groundly” is trying to make it happen @NipseyHoussle
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
6 months
Giiiirrrrl, Nashville was bananas...... #airbnb #STR #housing #RealEstate
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
Dear Jesus- please take the fed funds to 20%
@TrishaFLsun
TrishaFLSun
2 months
🫧💰💲💰🫧 God is calling you to fund his Kingdom by owning cash flowing assets via real estate investing. Hallelujah!🫧💰💲💰🫧
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
With a little bit of technical analysis, I am bullish evictions 🙃 The longer we slow walk it, the higher this goes. Both the share of cost burdened homes and evictions rates were lower pre COVID. Now run it against rent vacancy rates and see if you notice anything. Cheers!
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
Keeping with rents for a second, Nashville has a ton apartment units under construction compared to other metros according to Jay Parsons himself. No, really- do you think this might help prices come down? Pair this with the BPS data and it will tell u we've overbuilt.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
I'm guessing this developer ran out of $- these 2 builds look to be abandoned. Have been "under construction" for wayyyyyy too long. Prime location too. Rare to see this in town 909A & B Gale Lane Nashville 37204
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
1 month
Can we please get rid of the perpetual humble brag that is linkedin? How many times can some rando exploit the most basic, adult prerequisites and re frame it as "life changing"
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
Interesting
@FCNightingale
Nightingale Associates
2 months
Fifth Third Center, the third-largest office building in downtown Nashville, has been listed for sale. Blackstone Real Estate paid $144.8M for the tower in 2019. #commercialrealestate
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
11 days
Shwing! TN vs national continued claims (NSA)
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
9 months
6/12) Obviously, the smaller properties are less responsive to DOM bleed, but I STRONGLY suspect this will change given that Nashville's rent vacancy rate is sitting at ~20 yr highs, with tons of MF supply to come; and there's been TONS of MF permitting as of late. Yee haw!🤠
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
5 months
This feels familiar- almost like Japan gave us the playbook. Keep pumping it Janet... @DonMiami3 @MrAwsumb #demographics #economy #housing #consumer #demand
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
6 months
Is there anything more ironic than rent vacancies and evictions trending higher in unison all over the country?
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
There are other factors at play as well here- consider investor demand for real estate and how that might influence home values. Showing a few other metros just so you see the general trend. Who you think is gonna be left holding the bag? Source: Redfin
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
3 months
1/2) Update on rent prices as of March- notice what's happening with single family at a national level. @MrAwsumb @m3_melody @TrishaFLsun
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
@texasrunnerDFW @JasonEBurack @menlobear @m3_melody There was a meaningful shift in the labor force participation rate among women that is undoubtedly part of the equation
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
"Housing shortage" Shown for various counties, 2 ways- annual change (L) & cumulative (R) Source: Census (1 yr estimates) 🔊🔼🎶🪇🙌🤓🤠 @MrAwsumb @m3_melody @TrishaFLsun #realestate #housing #speculation #reflexivity
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
I just got dumber by listening to this interview. No part of @DaveRamsey 's rambling bullshit is supported by the data. Incomes aren't keeping up with home $'s- lots of households largest cost Can u guess what Davidson County looks like or do I need to show that too? #inflation
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@TheoVon
Theo Von
2 months
Is the American Dream dead? w/ @DaveRamsey
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
@mackandme123 My name is Will and I intentionally try to mislead my audience for personal gain. Since your dollars are measured in YoY chg, that's how I'll present rents! "It's the same data" See how they trick you? Same data- 2 ways
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
9 months
4/12) Just like true residences, STRs are sitting on the market longer, and as a result, are starting to reduce their list price. Larger STR properties (ie HPR detached) are seeing the most pricing pressure thus far, but they're not alone. MF in on it too- & I see u NOO!
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
So let's look at Nashville as an example- where the data clearly points to softening demand. It may not be reflected in the price just yet, but there are clear signs of what's to come. Pending Sales/Homes Sold/% sold above LP moving 🔽, DOM/$ cuts/Invty moving 🔼= $ 🔽 S: Redfin
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
Plus u gotta watch rents because people have options: "Should I rent or buy?" And usually when rent vacancies are high, rent prices fall, which work in lockstep with home prices. But #RealPage seems to have changed this dynamic, at least temporarily. Source: Apartment List
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
9 months
10/12) There are clear signs of owner occupancy fraud and DSCR lending here locally, Nashville's job growth is decelerating (continued claims rising statewide too), BNA passenger traffic is slowing, and the mix of small STR investors suggests outsized pressure points.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
15 days
Rice and beans
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@HeroDividend
Dividend Hero
15 days
What is your favorite money saving hack?
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
3 months
I'll say it again- the average weekly benefit hasn't kept up with the average weekly wage. Aka declining replacement rates..... Pulling this data from the DOL is unnecessarily complicated, but it's all there Worth a read @j77324
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
@calculatedrisk Wow that's out of touch- almost like comparing apples to oranges Bill. At the time, did anyone in the administration ever think about doing a cost benefit on expanding the money supply like they did?
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
10 months
A bit of local flavor on #rent trends- for those interested in future supply #'s. One of many reasons why I think #Nashville 's #housing prices will behave differently in this cycle. But still think it's going to take some time for this to play out.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
@Joe_Stampone
Joe Stampone
4 months
We all know the Nashville supply story is crazy and now for the first time I’m seeing a 5 month concession on a lease-up in the Gulch! It feels like a race to the bottom.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
5 months
If you can't connect the dots between this and all the COVID stimmies, then I got nothing. @MacroEdgeRes
@MacroEdgeRes
MacroEdge
5 months
"[We've gone] from high growth to basically no growth." - Gov of Tennessee As state of TN cuts budget by almost $10 billion.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
3 months
God- if you're out there, please let Rick Santelli's forecast for the 10 year come true.
@FOXNashville
FoxNashville
3 months
Prettier in pink! 🎀 Heinz, in partnership with Mattel, is offering a new, limited condiment that will make any meal prettier. 📸 Mattel
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
1 month
Anyone else noticed just how ridiculous these agent remarks have become in MLS recently? It's always been exaggerated, but good lord. "You can rent it out- short term/long term- doesn't matter!".......Without verifying any of it. mmmkay
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
6 months
This behemoth "needs help" getting in the car. EVERY. DAY. Welcome to my world... #boxers #dogs
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
1/3) Seen Zillow's Rent Index mentioned quite a few times post CPI. Remember there are multiple cuts of that data. Here's Nashville metro- interesting, right? Looks like some typical seasonality, but otherwise we're doing a slow walk down. @mrawsumb
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
16 days
Everybody loves to dunk on Dave- it's just so easy. But he holds a special place in my heart because he perfectly exemplifies the level of stupidity I have to deal with on a daily basis. Plus he's a local A proper asshole leans into their own ignorance
@DaveRamsey
Dave Ramsey
26 days
The stats right now are alarming: • 21% of young adults are delaying getting married. • 31% of young adults are delaying moving out of their parents’ home. • 40% of young adults are delaying saving for retirement. • 47% of young adults are delaying buying a home. All
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
9 months
She's done sooo many good interviews- hard to pick a favorite. Some unsolicited advice- listen to people like @m3_melody who have the best REAL information. #mortgage #loans #economy #realestate
@m3_melody
Melody Wright
9 months
Great chat with Todd Sachs, an industry veteran - we aren’t fighting the last war - we are more shocked and saddened than you we are here again.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
26 days
Prices are collapsing- we need rate cuts! 🙃
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
8 months
Guys the problem is we just need to build more #housing ... But you're not looking at it right, Kenny?! mmmkay🤠😊 Source: Census Bureau
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
Misdirection- nice! You see what they do with their carefully crafted language? Zoom out- home prices peaked in a lot of markets in 2022. And there's this thing called seasonality. Oops #realestate #housing
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@Redfin
Redfin
2 months
There are now no major U.S. metro areas where home prices are falling. Despite demand cooling a bit as mortgage rates rise, there are enough buyers out there to keep prices propped up 👉 #realestate
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
@normcharlatan um is that guy still alive
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
@WKRN
WKRN News 2
7 months
Nashville heading into 'soft' rental market, experts say
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
@nashvillebiz
Nashville Business Journal
7 months
The approximately 1 million apartments under construction nationally as of the third quarter is outpacing demand and tempering rent growth in many markets.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
5 months
Lots of misinformation out there, especially on all things housing- hard to know whats real. Some unsolicited advice: be suspicious of anyone who only shows data over a short time frame, doesn't cite sources, or claims to not like bacon. Cut through the noise
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
10 months
@nashvillebiz
Nashville Business Journal
10 months
Nashville’s rental market is tilting, or maybe falling, in favor of renters. As the city experiences its highest vacancy rate in 20 years, apartment owners are competing for renters with waived fees and free rent deals.
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
2 months
Even though home sales are quite low historically, investors continue to capture a larger piece of the pie. Fuck. That. #realestate #housing #speculation
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
4 months
The response you get when questioning the housing shortage narrative.....
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
7 months
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this unit will not sell at full ask. And I don't care if it's the penthouse. $2,088/ sqft #realestate #housing #nashville #speculation
@parksathome
Parks Real Estate
7 months
Immerse yourself in the luxury of this breathtaking penthouse on the 32nd floor of Broadwest! 😍✨ Listed by Danielle Helling and Mark Deutschmann - The CityLiving Group • 1616 West End Ave 3202 • Nashville • MLS# 2594282 • $5,799,900
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
17 days
It's official, I'm moving
@NUCLRGOLF
NUCLR GOLF
18 days
🎶 🤠 👏 Phil Mickelson has gone NUCLR in Nashville 🕺 @HyFlyers_GC | @PhilMickelson
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
6 months
I wonder why sellers are reducing their price... Closed deals in #Nashville (search area displayed) Past 4 months in order: September- Dec (thru 12.22) Same data (from MLS)- cut 3 ways #RealEstate
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@KennyCap_Phd
Kenny Capital
8 months
I think this might be slightly important h/t @DonMiami3 #jobs #joblessclaims #unemployment #economy
@DonMiami3
Don Johnson
8 months
Yields are down sharply today on the bad jobs data. The job market is softening now at a swifter pace. This is *short-term* positive relief for markets as noted by Kantrowitz yesterday and also aligns with 10y3m/SPX model.
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