Independent real estate analyst.
Mostly retired agent.
Former international agricultural economist at USDA.
Worked at American Embassy in Paris for 2.5 years.
The U.S. is a mortgage-ownership society, not a home-ownership society.
The U.S. has the 3rd lowest free-and-clear home ownership rate of these 28 countries, according to the OECD.
Supply Myth
Although the number of single-family units under construction is only 78% of the peak in 2006, the number of multi-family units under construction is DOUBLE the peak in 2008.
Total units under construction is 20% above the 2006 peak.
AirbnBusted
Heard a story about a landlord buying a house & turning it into a short-term rental.
A neighbor somehow found out the mortgage was for a primary residence = mortgage occupancy fraud.
Neighbor told lender.
House soon put up for sale again.
@texasrunnerDFW
Interesting take.
"If I knew how, I'd short the real estate market. Right now. Because it's pretty clear that home prices across the country will be falling for years."
".... about her decision to purchase a house in Palm Springs, California, with her sister and list it as a short-term rental. In 2022, the rental brought in $81,861 but cost $94,967 to run, including a property-management fee."
"Bank of England finally admits high house prices are determined by finance, not supply and demand"
"Houses are assets not goods"
"They suggest that lower interest rates, which have been pushed onto a downward trajectory by the Bank of England since the early 1990s, account
It looks like the U.S. mortgage financing system is largely nationalized.
87.5% of mortgages are purchased by govt entities that resell them as MBS, and the Fed has bought ~1/3 of all the MBS they've created?
"Phoenix is experiencing an unprecedented increase in apartments, with over 17,100 units delivered in the past year. Around 51,000 more units are under construction, bringing the total new apartment supply to more than 67,000 units. This development is concentrated in Buckeye and
Secret
#56
– About 80% of House Price Appreciation from 1990 through 2020 was Due to Falling Mortgage Interest Rates
U.S. house prices tripled from 1990 through 2020. On average, a house worth $100,000 in January 1990 would have been worth about $300,000 in December 2020.
Active Listings Moonshot Continues
At current rates, in 3 weeks we'll have the highest number of single-family houses listed for sale in the metro Phoenix MLS that we've seen in 3 years.
“All of the real, inflation-adjusted U.S. home price appreciation from 1990 to 2021 was due to falling interest rates, at least according to this simple analysis. U.S. mortgage rates may never go lower than they were last year [2021] so the multi-decade
Stumbled on this.
Did very many Airbnb landlords get mortgages based on their Airbnb business income, not on the value of the property?
If it was common, that would add a lot of downside risk to residential real estate in a recession.
"In Jacksonville, Florida, real estate agent Heather Kruayai said that roughly 25% of buyers who signed contracts for her sales listings backed out after receiving insurance estimates."
YIKES! Check your home's Zestimate value.
Mine is down 18% since May!
Rent Zestimate is down $500/month since June.
(I wonder why I haven't seen this mentioned in any Zillow press releases. 😉)
"A $1.8 billion earthquake just hit the real estate industry"
Best discussion of the implications of NAR losing that lawsuit.
"If the typical total commissions for a real-estate sale were to fall to between 3% and 4%, instead of the customary 5% to 6% today... savings for
@PEWilliams_
Here are 6 landlord tax breaks that hurt;
1) home ownership,
2) economic growth,
3) economic equality, and
4) stable family wealth creation.
In March 8% of Phoenix single-family MLS listings failed to sell. The listings were canceled or expired without a sale.
In September, 32% failed to sell.
October will likely have the highest listing failure rate since 2011.
Did you know the typical mortgage in France is 15 years? In Switzerland, it's 15-20 years.
The financial sector must hate that.
If you borrowed $400K today in U.S.;
- over 30 years at 2.9% you'd pay $200K in interest.
- over 15 years at 2.2% you'd pay $70K in interest.
My first piece in Barron's came out this morning!
"This Housing Market Won’t Be Like Last Time. History Still Has Lessons."
No paywall. Click on the X to remove that ad.
Number of Phoenix homes for is sale now above this week in 2017 (and 2018 and 2019).
AND it's increasing at a time of year when the number of homes for sale usually falls.
"updating the development code to clarify that short-term rentals are a commercial use that doesn’t belong — and should no longer be allowed — in residential areas."
"In 2021, nearly half of all home purchases in Dallas County went to investors."
Old industry narrative.
"Home sales are low because interest rates are high."
Next industry narrative?
"Home sales are low because interest rates are falling."
They can't say prices are high. That's against the real estate agents' code because it's always a great time to buy.
What do YIMBYs say about this?
The way to high rates of home ownership isn't to get rid of zoning, it's to tax the heck out of non-owner-occupied home purchases.
Seems to work. Singapore's home ownership rate is almost 90%.
Singapore gets it.
20% land transfer tax on a second home, 30% on the third. 60% duty on foreign investment, 65% on entities and trustees.
If you want to encourage home ownership, you have to regulate/curb the financialization of the housing stock.
2 different real estate markets in metro Phoenix.
Single-family houses < 2,000 square feet.
7% MORE houses for sale than same week in 2019.
Single-family houses 4,000-6,000 square feet.
55% FEWER houses for sale than same week in 2019.
What's going on?
I agree with Bill. Right now, this looks like the most likely scenario.
"I think the most likely scenario now is nominal house prices declining 10% or more from the peak, and real house prices declining 25% or so over the next 5 to 7 years."
Phoenix median house price down 4% in 1 month to $452,000.
Down $63,000 in 6 months!
Metro Phoenix median single-family non-distressed house sold price is the same as a year ago ($452,000 vs $450,000 a year ago).
Just noticed an unusually high number of houses taken off the market unsold.
About 1/3rd of houses taken off the Phoenix MLS were unsold. 2/3rds were because the homes sold.
In recent years, about 10%-20% of houses taken off the MLS were unsold, that is, the listings expired.
Houston vs. San Francisco
If getting rid of zoning is so good for housing supply and house prices, why have house prices increased more in Houston than in San Francisco since 2010?
Has demand been more important than supply for house prices?
This is bad.
Mike Orr of the Cromford Report on June 17.
"I just heard today that one of these big players has cancelled every purchase they have in escrow, forfeiting their earnest money in order to not complete their purchases. This is ominous."
Short-term rental provider Frontdesk lays off entire staff, on the verge of shutting down
"The startup’s business model, which is leasing apartments at market rental rates and furnishing them for short-term rentals in more than 30 markets"
Metro Phoenix median single-family house price up $100,000 from June 2020 to June 2021.
$325,000 to $425,000
A 31% increase in 12 months.
Or 5 to 10 years of "normal" appreciation in 1 year.
The key to NAR monopoly power isn't having sellers pay the buyers agent.
It's requiring NAR real estate agents to list all of their houses for sale in the local NAR-affiliated MLS.
Real estate agents can't put houses in the local MLS unless they are members of NAR.
AND
"In January, 7,031 eviction filings were recorded. According to court spokesperson Scott Davis, that number is the largest since September 2008, the time of the last housing crash."
@don_esteban_cfa
A lot of the countries with the highest home ownership rates were former communist countries that more or less just gave people the housing they were living in when communism fell.
@WashoeBasics
@PEWilliams_
Open to the idea but the U.S. has had a terrible track record with public housing for whatever reason.
I'm fascinated with community land trusts & coops.
Also, Australian Capital Territory where govt didn't sell the land, they long-term leased it for houses. Keeps prices down.
Wow! The number of single-family homes for sale in metro Phoenix is increasing even fast!
The number of homes for sale is in the "normal" range but the increase in the number of homes for sale is abnormally fast for this time of year.
"Nearly a quarter of homeowners say they are considering selling their home in the next three years or have their home currently listed for sale, a significant increase from a year ago."
My guess is that Fannie and Freddie will allow buyer agent commissions to be rolled into the mortgage.
So, in a way, you'll be paying your buyers' agent's commission over the next 30 years.
And Fannie and Freddie will say it's help lower-income people have the American Dream.
A lot of things about mortgages are a LOT safer now than last time but this risk factor is a LOT worse.
The number of FHA purchase mortgages where the home buyer has a Debt-to-Income ratio of 50% or more was 9 times higher in 2022 than in 2005.
129 page PDF -
"The number of people 80 years of age or older is expected to more than double between 2022 and 2040, increasing from 13 million to 28 million. As the baby boomer generation ages into their 80s, starting slowly in the late 2020s and picking up speed in the 2030s, they will likely
Implications of NAR losing lawsuit?
Will agent commissions become part of the negotiations between buyer and seller!
If they do, the first thing buyers and sellers will agree on is to cut their agents' commissions.
Seems there's a lot of interest in comparing U.S. mortgages to mortgages in other countries!
The U.S. industry NEVER mentions how mortgages are done elsewhere & how different they are.
They want everyone to think the current U.S. mortgage system is the only way it can be done.
The 4 takeaways from every real estate industry press release ever.
- Prices up. Buy before they go higher.
- Price down. Buy before they go up.
- Interest rates up. Buy before they go higher.
- Interest rates down. Buy before they go up.
In short, "Buy now!"
Airbnbs
"'It's the most overheated market I've ever seen.'"
"Then, her bookings began to drop. At its peak, her townhouse was bringing in $10,400 a month in 2017. In April 2023, bookings totaled just $2,000."
The standard industry pitch is, "The demographics for housing demand are very strong and will continue".
Very few explain the whole story, "... until they peak in 3 or 4 years. After that the demographics will weaken demand for many years."
@Tegoventuri
But does going from 20-year to 30-year mortgages just mean houses prices get bid up until they're as affordable/unaffordable as prices were with 20-year mortgages but with 10 more years of mortgage payments?
When home ownership increased fastest in U.S., mortgages were 20 years.
We have the most homes for sale for this time of year for 4 years, since 2019.
And the number of homes for sale is still slowlyg increasing which is unusual for this time of year and shows the market is slowly softening.
@holden_bukowski
Secret
#2
– The Real Reason House Prices Skyrocketed After Covid
What the Real Estate Industry Won’t Tell You
🔹Investors in Phoenix bought more than TWICE as many homes in 2021 than in 2019.
🔹Live-in home buyers in Phoenix actually bought FEWER homes in 2021 than in 2019.
July
"The Stop Predatory Investing Act..., would restrict investors who purchase 50 or more single-family rentals from deducting interest or depreciation on those properties from their taxes."
"Arizona’s top legal officer is accusing multiple apartment companies of conspiring to raise rents on hundreds of thousands of residents in the Phoenix and Tucson areas."
This story seems to be gaining momentum.
They're saying skyrocketing Fed rates caused the demise of Silicon Valley Bank so the Fed is bailing out all SVB customers.
But skyrocketing Fed rates also caused the median house price in Phoenix to fall by $75,000 since May. Will the Fed fail out all home owners, as well? No.
@AdvisorJohn
@windgineering
"... more recent mortgage originations revealing the same troubling behavior: Rather than live in the homes being purchased, dishonest borrowers treated them solely as investments. In doing so, they committed occupancy fraud"
Months of Supply has been skyrocketing the last 3 weeks in Phoenix.
Have 30-year mortgage rates approaching 8% caused a market capitulation?
Also remember, 3 months supply is a lot more today than last time. Well-priced houses sell a lot faster (internet, electronic sigs, etc)
Okay, this is old news but the number of homes for sale continues to increase at a time of year it usually falls.
To go against seasonality shows a big underlying force despite the small increases.
We could see big inventory increases this autumn when seasonality turns upward.
The number of homes for sale in Phoenix surpassed 2018 levels 3 weeks ago and should pass 2019 levels within 3 weeks.
We could have more houses for sale than in 2017 by this summer.
House a block from me.
12/30/2021. Owner sells to an online buyer for $475,000.
New owner does zero repairs or updates.
3/1/2022. New owner sells it for $645,000.
This flipper owner does MAJOR remodeling.
6/1/2022. Home listed for $849,000.
6/24/2022. Home listed for $749,900.
The Supply Bros aren't going to like this.
Land is NOT the supply problem
Fits perfectly into
@DrCameronMurray
's idea that builders will NOT intentionally build so many homes that it drives down home prices and builder profits.
The number of houses listed for sale in the Phoenix MLS are still incredibly low but they're up 35% in 4 weeks during a time of year they don't normally increase.