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John Wake Profile
John Wake

@JohnWake

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Independent real estate analyst. Mostly retired agent. Former international agricultural economist at USDA. Worked at American Embassy in Paris for 2.5 years.

Arizona, USA
Joined September 2009
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 month
76 Secrets of U.S. Home Ownership - 3 Solutions
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
The U.S. is a mortgage-ownership society, not a home-ownership society. The U.S. has the 3rd lowest free-and-clear home ownership rate of these 28 countries, according to the OECD.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
"Why Airbnb owners are about to Sell" Revenue per available listing in Phoenix DOWN 48% in May compared to May last year.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
4 months
Most new single-family houses for sale since 2008.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Real estate attorney says about half his phone calls these days are disputes about buyers canceling contracts.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Supply Myth Although the number of single-family units under construction is only 78% of the peak in 2006, the number of multi-family units under construction is DOUBLE the peak in 2008. Total units under construction is 20% above the 2006 peak.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 month
New 15,516 square foot home on 5 acres in Paradise Valley sold last week for $32,388,888.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
8 months
AirbnBusted Heard a story about a landlord buying a house & turning it into a short-term rental. A neighbor somehow found out the mortgage was for a primary residence = mortgage occupancy fraud. Neighbor told lender. House soon put up for sale again. @texasrunnerDFW
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
Interesting take. "If I knew how, I'd short the real estate market. Right now. Because it's pretty clear that home prices across the country will be falling for years."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
".... about her decision to purchase a house in Palm Springs, California, with her sister and list it as a short-term rental. In 2022, the rental brought in $81,861 but cost $94,967 to run, including a property-management fee."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
9 months
"Bank of England finally admits high house prices are determined by finance, not supply and demand" "Houses are assets not goods" "They suggest that lower interest rates, which have been pushed onto a downward trajectory by the Bank of England since the early 1990s, account
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
It looks like the U.S. mortgage financing system is largely nationalized. 87.5% of mortgages are purchased by govt entities that resell them as MBS, and the Fed has bought ~1/3 of all the MBS they've created?
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@JohnWake
John Wake
9 months
"Phoenix is experiencing an unprecedented increase in apartments, with over 17,100 units delivered in the past year. Around 51,000 more units are under construction, bringing the total new apartment supply to more than 67,000 units. This development is concentrated in Buckeye and
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@JohnWake
John Wake
3 months
Secret #56 – About 80% of House Price Appreciation from 1990 through 2020 was Due to Falling Mortgage Interest Rates U.S. house prices tripled from 1990 through 2020. On average, a house worth $100,000 in January 1990 would have been worth about $300,000 in December 2020.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 months
"the average retail price of a new in-ground swimming pool in the US has gone up from $43K in 2019 to $74K last year — a massive 72% increase."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
8 months
Crash in Phoenix single-family home sales. Down 40% from 2021. It's safe to say we're in a real estate sales recession.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
11 months
Mortgage rate buydowns are price cuts that don't show up in the price.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Active Listings Moonshot Continues At current rates, in 3 weeks we'll have the highest number of single-family houses listed for sale in the metro Phoenix MLS that we've seen in 3 years.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
“All of the real, inflation-adjusted U.S. home price appreciation from 1990 to 2021 was due to falling interest rates, at least according to this simple analysis. U.S. mortgage rates may never go lower than they were last year [2021] so the multi-decade
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@JohnWake
John Wake
3 years
"It's a Wonderful Life" and The Weird History of Building & Loans A little bit of the evolution of the current U.S. mortgage system.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
Stumbled on this. Did very many Airbnb landlords get mortgages based on their Airbnb business income, not on the value of the property? If it was common, that would add a lot of downside risk to residential real estate in a recession.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Something weird is going on in Tempe. Median sale price, single-family, non-distressed July = $585,000 (73 sales) November = $475,000 (53 sales)
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
U.S. home prices are disconnected from rents... again. This rent index may continue to increase but what a huge gap!
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@JohnWake
John Wake
9 months
"In Jacksonville, Florida, real estate agent Heather Kruayai said that roughly 25% of buyers who signed contracts for her sales listings backed out after receiving insurance estimates."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
YIKES! Check your home's Zestimate value. Mine is down 18% since May! Rent Zestimate is down $500/month since June. (I wonder why I haven't seen this mentioned in any Zillow press releases. 😉)
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@JohnWake
John Wake
11 months
"A $1.8 billion earthquake just hit the real estate industry" Best discussion of the implications of NAR losing that lawsuit. "If the typical total commissions for a real-estate sale were to fall to between 3% and 4%, instead of the customary 5% to 6% today... savings for
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Real estate industrial complex. Prices are up X%. It's a great time to be a buyer! Prices are down X%. It's a great time to be a buyer!
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@JohnWake
John Wake
3 years
@PEWilliams_ Here are 6 landlord tax breaks that hurt; 1) home ownership, 2) economic growth, 3) economic equality, and 4) stable family wealth creation.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
7 years
Just watched this again. It's surprisingly good! And still getting nearly 50 views a day, a year later.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
In March 8% of Phoenix single-family MLS listings failed to sell. The listings were canceled or expired without a sale. In September, 32% failed to sell. October will likely have the highest listing failure rate since 2011.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
"From their May 2022 peak, home prices will need to plunge 40%. In other words, a $1 million home in mid-2022 will be a $600,000 home by 2026."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Supply Myth U.S. Population Per Housing Unit We probably have the fewest number of people per housing unit in American history.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Scary. Number of single-family houses listed for sale in the metro Phoenix MLS should match 2018 and 2019 levels in a week or two.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
"Homeownership is now $1,000+ per month more expensive than renting."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
3 years
Did you know the typical mortgage in France is 15 years? In Switzerland, it's 15-20 years. The financial sector must hate that. If you borrowed $400K today in U.S.; - over 30 years at 2.9% you'd pay $200K in interest. - over 15 years at 2.2% you'd pay $70K in interest.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
My first piece in Barron's came out this morning! "This Housing Market Won’t Be Like Last Time. History Still Has Lessons." No paywall. Click on the X to remove that ad.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
3 months
Number of Phoenix homes for is sale now above this week in 2017 (and 2018 and 2019). AND it's increasing at a time of year when the number of homes for sale usually falls.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
@texasrunnerDFW AirbnBust 👍
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
The Zillow Zestimate on my house is down $125,000 since May. How about yours?
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
I love this interactive graphic from the New York Fed on house price appreciation from 2003 through last December.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
10 months
I'm the luckiest dad in the world! My son is 12 years sober today. 🙏
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@JohnWake
John Wake
4 months
"BBG is considered to be one of the 'Big Five' national commercial real estate valuation firms and has 4,500 clients and 50 offices"
@PikerCapital
Piker Capital
4 months
Freddie Mac halted new loans from appraiser BBG pending an investigation into mortgage fraud. 👀
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
"updating the development code to clarify that short-term rentals are a commercial use that doesn’t belong — and should no longer be allowed — in residential areas." "In 2021, nearly half of all home purchases in Dallas County went to investors."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 months
Old industry narrative. "Home sales are low because interest rates are high." Next industry narrative? "Home sales are low because interest rates are falling." They can't say prices are high. That's against the real estate agents' code because it's always a great time to buy.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
What do YIMBYs say about this? The way to high rates of home ownership isn't to get rid of zoning, it's to tax the heck out of non-owner-occupied home purchases. Seems to work. Singapore's home ownership rate is almost 90%.
@dfwaaronlayman
Aaron Layman
1 year
Singapore gets it. 20% land transfer tax on a second home, 30% on the third. 60% duty on foreign investment, 65% on entities and trustees. If you want to encourage home ownership, you have to regulate/curb the financialization of the housing stock.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
2 different real estate markets in metro Phoenix. Single-family houses < 2,000 square feet. 7% MORE houses for sale than same week in 2019. Single-family houses 4,000-6,000 square feet. 55% FEWER houses for sale than same week in 2019. What's going on?
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
I agree with Bill. Right now, this looks like the most likely scenario. "I think the most likely scenario now is nominal house prices declining 10% or more from the peak, and real house prices declining 25% or so over the next 5 to 7 years."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Phoenix median house price down 4% in 1 month to $452,000. Down $63,000 in 6 months! Metro Phoenix median single-family non-distressed house sold price is the same as a year ago ($452,000 vs $450,000 a year ago).
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
This doesn't look good.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
6 months
GREAT piece! "What Makes Housing So Expensive?"
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
"Landlords moved to evict more metro Phoenix renters in July than any month since the Great Recession."
@catherinereagor
catherinereagor
1 year
Here's how much income Arizonans need to afford rent and what leaders are doing about it via @azcentral
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Just noticed an unusually high number of houses taken off the market unsold. About 1/3rd of houses taken off the Phoenix MLS were unsold. 2/3rds were because the homes sold. In recent years, about 10%-20% of houses taken off the MLS were unsold, that is, the listings expired.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Houston vs. San Francisco If getting rid of zoning is so good for housing supply and house prices, why have house prices increased more in Houston than in San Francisco since 2010? Has demand been more important than supply for house prices?
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
This is bad. Mike Orr of the Cromford Report on June 17. "I just heard today that one of these big players has cancelled every purchase they have in escrow, forfeiting their earnest money in order to not complete their purchases. This is ominous."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
9 months
Short-term rental provider Frontdesk lays off entire staff, on the verge of shutting down "The startup’s business model, which is leasing apartments at market rental rates and furnishing them for short-term rentals in more than 30 markets"
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@JohnWake
John Wake
3 years
Metro Phoenix median single-family house price up $100,000 from June 2020 to June 2021. $325,000 to $425,000 A 31% increase in 12 months. Or 5 to 10 years of "normal" appreciation in 1 year.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
11 months
The key to NAR monopoly power isn't having sellers pay the buyers agent. It's requiring NAR real estate agents to list all of their houses for sale in the local NAR-affiliated MLS. Real estate agents can't put houses in the local MLS unless they are members of NAR. AND
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Single-family, non-distressed, houses for sale in the Phoenix area MLS.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
"In January, 7,031 eviction filings were recorded. According to court spokesperson Scott Davis, that number is the largest since September 2008, the time of the last housing crash."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
@don_esteban_cfa A lot of the countries with the highest home ownership rates were former communist countries that more or less just gave people the housing they were living in when communism fell.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
3 years
@WashoeBasics @PEWilliams_ Open to the idea but the U.S. has had a terrible track record with public housing for whatever reason. I'm fascinated with community land trusts & coops. Also, Australian Capital Territory where govt didn't sell the land, they long-term leased it for houses. Keeps prices down.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
14 days
Wow! The number of single-family homes for sale in metro Phoenix is increasing even fast! The number of homes for sale is in the "normal" range but the increase in the number of homes for sale is abnormally fast for this time of year.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
"Nearly a quarter of homeowners say they are considering selling their home in the next three years or have their home currently listed for sale, a significant increase from a year ago."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 months
My guess is that Fannie and Freddie will allow buyer agent commissions to be rolled into the mortgage. So, in a way, you'll be paying your buyers' agent's commission over the next 30 years. And Fannie and Freddie will say it's help lower-income people have the American Dream.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
11 months
WSJ "Congrats, Your House Made You Rich. Now Sell It."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Supply Myth Total Housing Units Per Person has never been higher.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
A lot of things about mortgages are a LOT safer now than last time but this risk factor is a LOT worse. The number of FHA purchase mortgages where the home buyer has a Debt-to-Income ratio of 50% or more was 9 times higher in 2022 than in 2005. 129 page PDF -
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
"The number of people 80 years of age or older is expected to more than double between 2022 and 2040, increasing from 13 million to 28 million. As the baby boomer generation ages into their 80s, starting slowly in the late 2020s and picking up speed in the 2030s, they will likely
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@JohnWake
John Wake
11 months
Implications of NAR losing lawsuit? Will agent commissions become part of the negotiations between buyer and seller! If they do, the first thing buyers and sellers will agree on is to cut their agents' commissions.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
Seems there's a lot of interest in comparing U.S. mortgages to mortgages in other countries! The U.S. industry NEVER mentions how mortgages are done elsewhere & how different they are. They want everyone to think the current U.S. mortgage system is the only way it can be done.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
5 years
The 4 takeaways from every real estate industry press release ever. - Prices up. Buy before they go higher. - Price down. Buy before they go up. - Interest rates up. Buy before they go higher. - Interest rates down. Buy before they go up. In short, "Buy now!"
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
Airbnbs "'It's the most overheated market I've ever seen.'" "Then, her bookings began to drop. At its peak, her townhouse was bringing in $10,400 a month in 2017. In April 2023, bookings totaled just $2,000."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
3 years
The standard industry pitch is, "The demographics for housing demand are very strong and will continue". Very few explain the whole story, "... until they peak in 3 or 4 years. After that the demographics will weaken demand for many years."
@LoganMohtashami
Logan Mohtashami
3 years
@hms1759 @ag_trader The years 2020-2024 have the most significant housing demographic patch ever. Once in a lifetime, that will never happen again.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
"Texas is in trouble."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
@Tegoventuri But does going from 20-year to 30-year mortgages just mean houses prices get bid up until they're as affordable/unaffordable as prices were with 20-year mortgages but with 10 more years of mortgage payments? When home ownership increased fastest in U.S., mortgages were 20 years.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
7 months
We have the most homes for sale for this time of year for 4 years, since 2019. And the number of homes for sale is still slowlyg increasing which is unusual for this time of year and shows the market is slowly softening. @holden_bukowski
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@JohnWake
John Wake
4 months
Home prices kept falling for 3 years after rates started falling in 2009.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
5 months
Secret #2 – The Real Reason House Prices Skyrocketed After Covid What the Real Estate Industry Won’t Tell You 🔹Investors in Phoenix bought more than TWICE as many homes in 2021 than in 2019. 🔹Live-in home buyers in Phoenix actually bought FEWER homes in 2021 than in 2019.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
July "The Stop Predatory Investing Act..., would restrict investors who purchase 50 or more single-family rentals from deducting interest or depreciation on those properties from their taxes."
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@JohnWake
John Wake
20 days
Steepest increase of the year for the number of homes for sale in Phoenix. Lower mortgage rates have had no impact so far.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
7 months
"Arizona’s top legal officer is accusing multiple apartment companies of conspiring to raise rents on hundreds of thousands of residents in the Phoenix and Tucson areas." This story seems to be gaining momentum.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
They're saying skyrocketing Fed rates caused the demise of Silicon Valley Bank so the Fed is bailing out all SVB customers. But skyrocketing Fed rates also caused the median house price in Phoenix to fall by $75,000 since May. Will the Fed fail out all home owners, as well? No.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
10 months
@AdvisorJohn @windgineering "... more recent mortgage originations revealing the same troubling behavior: Rather than live in the homes being purchased, dishonest borrowers treated them solely as investments. In doing so, they committed occupancy fraud"
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 months
Interactive version at the link.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
11 months
Months of Supply has been skyrocketing the last 3 weeks in Phoenix. Have 30-year mortgage rates approaching 8% caused a market capitulation? Also remember, 3 months supply is a lot more today than last time. Well-priced houses sell a lot faster (internet, electronic sigs, etc)
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@JohnWake
John Wake
6 months
Okay, this is old news but the number of homes for sale continues to increase at a time of year it usually falls. To go against seasonality shows a big underlying force despite the small increases. We could see big inventory increases this autumn when seasonality turns upward.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
4 months
"Between 1953 and 1997, US real median house prices grew by only 4% in total."
@JohnWake
John Wake
4 months
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@JohnWake
John Wake
5 months
The number of homes for sale in Phoenix surpassed 2018 levels 3 weeks ago and should pass 2019 levels within 3 weeks. We could have more houses for sale than in 2017 by this summer.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
5 months
Study finding South Florida homes are 35% overvalued sparks bubble worries: ‘This trend does concern me’
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
House a block from me. 12/30/2021. Owner sells to an online buyer for $475,000. New owner does zero repairs or updates. 3/1/2022. New owner sells it for $645,000. This flipper owner does MAJOR remodeling. 6/1/2022. Home listed for $849,000. 6/24/2022. Home listed for $749,900.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
5 months
The Supply Bros aren't going to like this. Land is NOT the supply problem Fits perfectly into @DrCameronMurray 's idea that builders will NOT intentionally build so many homes that it drives down home prices and builder profits.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
2 years
The number of houses listed for sale in the Phoenix MLS are still incredibly low but they're up 35% in 4 weeks during a time of year they don't normally increase.
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@JohnWake
John Wake
1 year
"March US corporate bankruptcy filings push Q1 total to highest since 2010"
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