It took me 18 months to go back on my feet. The Mad King helped me to to focus on what maters, macro & markets.
Few might find it desapointing, but no crypto/NFT/Exponential narrative will come out of me.
Lesson learned!
Here is The Mad King story:
For finance professionals who commenced their careers after 1985 (including me), a continuous decline in rates has been the norm.
We've rarely encountered more than one standard deviation, and when we did we knew the Fed's next move.
Yet now we find ourselves approaching 4
As the 3rd largest shareholder of Real Vision, it is with good conscience that I recommend you NOT to buy it.
Integrity before profit
This is Raoul Vision not Real Vision
This is $NVIDIA performance YTD:
Share price +223% YTD
Market cap +$800 billion YTD
Free cash flow +$6.2 billion YTD
Revenue + 123%
Is it plausible to think that such remarkable growth was accomplished with a mere 3% increase in operating expenses?
Either NVIDIA is the most
Uranium stands as potentially the best macro trade for the upcoming five years (maybe more).
It embodies the elements of a true blockbuster: compelling demographics, the surge for clean energy, escalating energy demand, and constricted supply.
It will get "The Mad King"
2024 and 2025 is going to be all about global liquidity, central banks and the dollar.
Here are the charts to track it all, they will be updated every week and are free to access for now, there are many more coming.
Welcome to "Mad Charts". Click 👇
Uranium isn’t just a fleeting trend; it’s a necessity.
$URA has seen a 300% increase since its 2020 lows, but a broader perspective reveals we’re merely at the starting line, with significant ground to cover to hit pre-Fukushima levels.
For the early ones, congratulations. 👑
Certain work is too crucial to be restricted by paywalls.
"NVIDIA - The Red Flags" is one of them.
@SamanthaLaDuc
@JG_Nuke
@kashyap286
@GraphFinancial
's remarkable work is even more powerful when joined together.
The plot thickens...
You can read it
In 2014, I got divorced and launched Real Vision with
@ttmygh
and few others.
In 2024, I am getting married and launching
@Principledmoney
aka "The Principled Investor" with
@ttmygh
The circle of life!
This HAS to be an intern making a typo when doing a manual entry for the ECB Deposit Facility.
If not, this is probably nothing, right?
@ecb
asking for a friend?
This is absolutely mind-boggling!
The U.S. government has normalized running a $2 trillion deficit.
They better hope there's never an economic downturn, or things could get catastrophic... Oh wait...
Total Payrolls (pink) vs Composite (black)
Composite =((Full time jobs + Part time jobs) - Multi-Job Holders)
Feel like 2000!
Reach your own conclusion 🫡
"It is important to note that the term populism is often used pejoratively by opponents to discredit or delegitimize certain political movements or figures."
In 2018 I listened to a presentation by
@profplum99
about passive investing during a GMI round table.
At the time I didn't pay attention (wrongly) due to personal bias.
In hindsight, he was 100% right.
This belongs to him👑
🎉 GIVEAWAY ALERT 🎉
To celebrate the upcoming launch of "The Mad King", we're giving away a one-year free subscription worth $900 to 3 lucky followers! 💥
To enter:
1️⃣ Follow us
2️⃣ Like this tweet ❤️
3️⃣ Retweet 🔁
4️⃣ Reply with
#TheMadKing
Winners will be selected
The Fed has been clear about its intentions to keep raising rates...
The housing market is pricing for Fed rates at 2%.
Either The Fed reverses course quickly (very unlikely), or the US housing market will enter the turbulence zone (more likely).
@spomboy
@ttmygh
The money printer is about to go brrrrrr...
- Tax receipts (revenue) are down -7.8% YTD (-$250 Billion)
- Budget Deficit (running cost) +$1.1 Trillion YTD
- UST Public Debt (debt) +$1.6 Trillion
- Current Interest Payments (debt servicing) $969 Billion
- 32% of the tax
I had the chance to have dinner with
@ttmygh
,
@S_Mikhailovich
and the legend Tony Deden this week.
With so much wisdom at the table you don’t talk but just listen.
If the S&P 500 doesn't reach a new all-time high, it could indicate the formation of a double top pattern.
To confirm this pattern, it would require a break below the neckline, which means a correction greater than 26%.
Hate or like Biden, the fact that the dems let him go on stage like this knowing what would happened tells you everything you need to know about them.
Pure public execution to replace him.
For the next 24 hours, this article will be available for everybody to read.
No email, no details, 100% Free.
Spread the word🙏
The King is dead; long live the King.
"Now, it feels as if the political landscape has shifted: The left has become the extreme-left, the right has moved to the centre, and the far-right has taken the position that the traditional right once held."
Protectionism vs Activism 🫤
This is an outstanding piece of research - A MUST WATCH
If you hold or want to buy $NVDA shares, you must watch it!
Using a deflationary asset such as chips as collateral to...wait for it -Buy more of this deflationary asset- can only go ONE way.
This is a Ponzi in plain
Real Vision aimed to become an unbiased source of financial information, a need that is even more critical today than it was when we launched it a decade ago.
Unfortunately it has failed miserably.
👏👏👏
$NVDA share price action looks like sh*t
All gains from Q2's "strong" performance have vanished.
Thank you for the exit liquidity.
@SamanthaLaDuc
, your timing was perfect
This has been the most downloaded piece by our subscribers this year.
Even if you don’t share my perspective, I believe it’s worth reading.
That’s why I’ve made it available to everyone—no credit card, no details, 100% free.
You are welcome 🫡
$4Bn Fine
Resigned as CEO
18 months in jail
This is actually light considering the accusations.
You can be sure that CZ threw someone else under the bus.
More to come!
We filmed a 3h interview with Grant Williams—
@ttmygh
It's accessible for the Gold bar tier members on his platform.
For me, this interview was almost a therapeutic experience.
The high-quality production took me back to the early days of Real Vision... a sentiment many share
For the next 48 hours, "NVIDIA - Don't Believe The Hype" is available to everyone, completely free of charge.
This is a follow-up on the original piece.
No credit card or personal details are required.
This report delves deeper than just the
My comprehensive 54-page handbook for understanding the business cycle is finally ready.
I hope you enjoy the read.
In my opinion (but I might be biased), It's the most valuable content you can access for free this weekend.
This chart caught my interest.
Relative values of Miners ETF vs. URA.
Looks to me that Uranium physical demand is about to skyrocket.
@uraniuminsider
, I am interested in your thoughts.
This account will go private in two weeks; once it is done, I will reward all my early followers.
Then, share or invite your friends because access will be exclusive later.
(Yeah! I used a picture of puppies and kitties to get your attention!)
About the SPR:
Congress authorized the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA, P.L. 94-163) to help prevent a repetition of the economic dislocation caused by the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo.
Using SPR to fight inflation was a strategic
Once this account goes private, only three cohorts of people will have access to my work.
1 -
@ttmygh
subscribers
2 - My Twitter followers
3- My Substack subscribers
If you are in one of these, you are on for a real treat.
Same with people pushing trade ideas without knowing someone:
- risk tolerance
- porftolio size
- time horizon
- recurring income
- total savings
- recurring expenses
They are not financial experts but rather influencers
🫡
Here is the CoreWeave office, which is a served office operated by Regus.
While it is usual for startups to start like this to save cost, it becomes quickly inefficient when scaling up.
I doubt a $5/8B company would still operate from there for security purposes.
A lot of money is controlled by a small amount of people.
Now we have a new group of people who owns a lot of what they think is a new money (Bitcoin), trying to convince us that it is.
So basically the new people want to control the new money.
I wonder how this will end up?
Just in🔥
Footage emerges from the Palace of Versailles at last night's sickeningly opulent event with WEF Charles and Macron.
These are the parasites pushing net zero and open borders and you into poverty.
VILE!
I had to twist Grant's harm to get this public.
This is the just introduction of the interview we did a few weeks ago with
@ttmygh
The production quality is the best you'll find out there, shots, narrative, details, everything is perfect. by Frans De Backer.
For the
The rate of change matters for financing costs.
Price levels matter for purchasing power.
Price level + Financing cost = Street Inflation
This explains why US consumers feel like everything is expensive regardless of slowing inflation.
People must survive price levels, not rate of change.
"We can never recapture the purchasing power of the dollar that has been lost."
- William McChesney Martin, the longest-serving Fed chairman, in August 1955.
Everything changed in 2009!
The US public debt now equals ELEVEN years of US tax receipts.
Public debt is forecasted to be at $50 Trillion by 2030.
By then, interest payments ONLY will be at least $1.5 Trillion.
Tax receipts will have to nearly double to keep up.
$NVIDIA added more market cap this year than $INTEL/ $AMD/ $TSM entire Market cap combined.
1 - This doesn't feel organic
2 - The chip demand is overstated
3 - This is not sustainable
Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM, which supplies chips to AMD $AMD, Nvidia $NVDA, Qualcomm $QCOM, Intel $INTC, and Apple $AAPL just reported August revenue of ~$5.9 billion, down 13.5% Y/Y
It's a wrap, and it is in my editor's hands.
"NVIDIA - Don't Believe The Hype" will be out to subscribers tomorrow.
This 33-page report will either confirm your bias or challenge your convictions.
Whatever position you have (short or long) on NVIDIA, you'll want to read it.
A
Remember last week's BLS revision of -818K?
Given nearly 30 years of correlation data, it seems the actual figure might be closer to 5 million.
Unless something is different this time of course! 🫡
A perfect representation of social class performances.
The increasing gap between the upper and lower classes is represented by 2 stocks making ATH lately: McDonald's & LVMH.
Upper class doing well = LVMH ↗️
Lower class not doing well =McDonald's ↗️
Middle class struggle = S&P
Here is another crazy assumption:
NVIDIA's free cash flow is going exponential:
1- Lend money to CoreWeave
2- Sell your GPU to CoreWeave
3- Increase revenue without increasing cost
4- Beat on Data Center
5- Move that revenue to cash flow
6- Rinse and repeat
Today, I extended an invitation to
@ttmygh
subscribers to join The Mad King, and the response has been astounding; it's hard to believe.
Grant, I will forever be indebted to you for your faith in me, for urging me forward and providing guidance. You epitomize the virtues of a
So
@ttmygh
is coming to stay with me for 3 days.
Wife: what does grant like for breakfast?
Me: he is english so I guess just hot water will be enough 🫡
Pure Madness!
A comprehensive 54-page analysis on the business cycle is currently undergoing editing and will be published either later today or tomorrow.
This is possibly the most valuable free content you will read today.
Narrator: Bitcoin is going to $2.3m
Me: so you are saying that Bitcoin market cap will be higher than the current S&P 500 market cap?
For Bitcoin to reach that kind of prices it would most likely mean that our financial system has collapsed.
Context matters 🫡
Since 1945:
The S&P 500 is up 7.58% per year on avg.
US Total debt is up 7.42% per year on avg.
Current total debt = $91.6 Trillion
Current S&P 500 Market Cap. = $38.8 Trillion
We are reaching the end of the debt road.