Mr.Awsumb @MrAwsumb Twitter profile

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Mr.Awsumb

5 months

I want to express my gratitude to @cvpayne for having us over at @MacroEdgeRes on Making Money last Thursday. Have a great week all!

Ulysses Awsumb on how small business hiring can impact the economy | Fox Business Video

MacroEdge date lead Ulysses Awsumb joins 'Making Money' and breaks down jobless claims, small business hiring as well as the surge in delinquencies and home equity loans.

www.foxbusiness.com

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

We can now add FHA delinquency to this list. Here's just delinquency due to "unemployed". A 🧵and thanks to @NeelyTamminga and @m3_melody for having piqued my interest in this data set. 1/6 Got Jobs?

Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

9 months

Borrowers with Credit Card and Auto Loan delinquency have reached levels matching recession in 2008/09 with Real Estate rising.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

11 months

@DonMiami3 @MacroEdgeRes Hard times in America. Wishing all our fellow Americans the chance to thrive once again.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

A 🧵on, eviction, foreclosure and default. According to the Census HH Pulse Survey, 4.1M people are behind on rent/mortgage where eviction is likely to occur within 2 months. FL & TN are among the highest states w/ 37-62% of renters/owners behind on payments (not a typo) 1/6

Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

Need to dig in further, but cmbs delinquency is climbing according to Trepp. Less paying rent=less paying Mortgages? We'll see

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

15 days

Here's a 🧵of every recession since 1970 and when initial claims spike. Hint, they don't lead recession. 1/6

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

3 months

@GayBearRes Pretty soon people will have to pay someone to take it off their hands

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

4 months

Unemploymen rate is beginning to look like recession is underway.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

1 year

@NewsLambert @MBAMortgage @NAHBhome @nardotrealtor Said differently: "Dear Mr. Powell, Please give us back ZIRP, we don't know how to operate without it anymore. Sincerely, The trade associations who helped cause the problem we're asking you to solve."

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

3 months

The product that's needed. That people don't want. A very large catch 22. Add mature trees and this looks like most every post WWII built urban area.

Lance Lambert

@NewsLambert

3 months

Price: $197,999 763 sq ft 2 bed 2 bath @Lennar 's Risinger Court community in Fort Worth, Texas

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

11 months

I can't take credit for this photo. But I can share it.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

11 months

A 🧵 on Housing Units and Household Formations in the US. Housing Shortage or ample supply? Plus a look at how we got to where we are right now. @steveharney @GRomePow @craigkamman @m3_melody @trishaFLsun @KennyCap_Phd @ssun555 @nipseyhoussle @donmiami3

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

A 🧵. Today the Fed released quarterly Loans and Mortgages data to close out 23. On a dollar level, all mortgage transactions were down -36% QOQ but a whopping -52.4% YOY, and down to dotcom bust levels. @GRomePow @IGHO_2022

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

7 months

The FDIC has added 8 banks to its problem list totaling $66.3 billion in assets

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

10 months

A 🧵 on why this may be the most important leading indicator of the economy. 1/9

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

21 days

The @Claudia_Sahm SAHM rule has been triggered. The @MichaelKantro Kantro Rule has been triggered. The McKelvey Rule has been triggered. The Awsumb rule: 100k complete spec homes for sale while the Kantro rule is in effect and you got recession. Soft landings need not apply.

Dr_Gingerballs

@Dr_Gingerballs

22 days

This got some attention so I’m going to make this even more controversial. Even if it turns out we are in a recession, the Fed should still raise rates. Congress growing deficits at 8% of NGDP. If real GDP is lower than we thought, then inflation is higher. Fed v Congress.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

12 days

No contact: No Contest for the current FHA delinquency situation. I've got back to 2008 for you Melody. CC @DonMiami3 @MacroEdgeRes @NeelyTamminga

Melody Wright

@m3_melody

12 days

"No Contact" as a reason for default never reached its current level of 17.77% going back to 2009 (earliest sched I can find) No contact = those who are ashamed or investors/folks who plan to walk away After the GFC there are less in the "shame" category

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

5 months

Maybe. Maybe not.

Michael Zuber

@1RentalataTime

5 months

This is where foreclosure crisis is possible (might even be probable). Not SFH’s

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

11 days

The US Homebuilding Situation continues to deteriorate. The index is down from 35 last month, to 22.64 this month.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

1 year

With today's new residential sales data being released, I thought I'd do a 🧵 breaking down some key details. You might have seen a version of this over at @MacroEdgeRes . That's because @DonMiami3 makes charts prettier than I do. @GRomePow @m3_melody @NipseyHoussle this is 4U

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

12 days

Knock knock: No one's home. Where do we go from here? @RealJohnGaltFla @MauiBoyMacro @m3_melody

Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

12 days

No contact: No Contest for the current FHA delinquency situation. I've got back to 2008 for you Melody. CC @DonMiami3 @MacroEdgeRes @NeelyTamminga

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

4 months

Count down, engines on.

Don Johnson

@DonMiami3

4 months

Awaiting the impact of the once in a generation housing construction cycle rollover to be seen in the employment data… Got Niagara Falls? @MrAwsumb

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

5 months

When the same company reports 2 different numbers: check the methods. Measure 85 cities you get one #. Measure 400 and the picture changes dramatically. Kenny knows.

Kenny Capital

@KennyCap_Phd

5 months

1/2) Redfin does a terrible job disclosing the differences in their weekly and monthly datasets. Screenshot from their weekly report:

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

4 months

4 years (only to 2020 🤔) of sale price adjustments. Not units, sales, or permits. Just prices. A 🧵on how ridiculous this is and it's implications. @m3_melody @DonMiami3 @DiMartinoBooth @MacroEdgeRes

Wolf Richter

@wolfofwolfst

5 months

Census Bureau Revises Away 25% of Pandemic-Era Price Spike of New Single-Family Houses. OK, file this away under the category, “Things that drive me nuts.”

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

When we remove the newly created "due to national emergency category", we've actually set a new record for "New 90+ day delinquencies". (guess why that category existed?) 2/6

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

A 🧵 on real financial conditions. 79 Million Americans are having difficulty buying ordinary household items: 1/10

Amy Nixon

@texasrunnerDFW

7 months

This is insanity This is reality This is why the kids are buying Bitcoin

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

5 months

Great thread and commentary on both posts. 👇 Also reminded me of this chart

Texas Oncologist

@TexasOncologist

5 months

Really good thread. I wouldn’t consider leaving medicine (hopefully for two decades or more) but I hear something like this once a week from other physicians. Our medical system is drowning in bureaucracy and inefficiency and has become anything but patient centric.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

1 year

StoryBuilt fails to raise capital to stay operational: 28 Commercial, Residential Projects Valued at $2 Billion at Total Build-Out in various stages up for grabs including projects in Dallas, Austin, Denver and Seattle CC @danjmcnamara @m3_melody @DonMiami3

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

3 months

Used houses officially more expensive than new ones. We've lost the plot. H/T @m3_melody Revisions to sale prices in 3..2...1...

Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

3 months

May new home sales decreased nearly 17% from May of 23. Sold as % of for sale matching August 2007 levels. Homes for sale reached a new post GFC high. Median price declined from April.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

4 months

Monday June 3rd at 7 pm Central: @JohnTGrod and I will be breaking down The Big Short, from both the film side and economic history side. We hope you'll join us and the conversation. Link here:

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

18 days

Got supply? The last time builders completed so many apartments in one month: June/Aug/Sep/Oct 1973. Otherwise 68.8k units have never been delivered in one month. CC: @DisruptorStocks (-pricing pressure)

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

10 months

A 🧵 on Housing, Homebuilding and Recession. And a gentle reminder that history does indeed repeat. 1/11

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

8 months

Mortgage transaction ($ level) contraction cycles compared to one another. Also, fastest contraction in 54 years. A 🧵 1/6 @GRomePow @KennyCap_Phd @AustinWhittRE

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

8 months

Crescent Mortgage Co. is shutting down in Atlanta and laying off its entire workforce

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

8 months

A 🧵 thread on the previous New Single Family Home pricing cycles. They go up, and they go down. A brief history lesson in charts on "bubbles". Also note, worst contraction on record so far. 1/9 @GRomePow @grimacemcdonal1 @TrishaFLsun @KirkChivas @m3_melody @mrsunbubbles

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

9 months

A brief 🧵The mortgage industry is 6 consecutive quarters into contraction. Faster and further than any previous contraction during the same time period. 1/4

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

3 months

June construction data released today. Build less back better? (Not political commentary) 🧵1/3

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

1 month

🧵time! If you're anything like me, you'd prefer some clarity on the whole new home sales situation. Sales Good/Rates Bad etc. So I created a solution. A 4 part equal weight composite index that can track the actual situation and put into context Inventory, Sales, Price Direction

Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

1 month

Tomorrow is 🧵 day. Got something fresh from the lab. IYKYK.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

11 months

A quick 🧵 on DR Horton earnings, and where we're at in the homebuilding cycle. A highlight from the article here 1st. An incentive is subsidized demand, and it's eating at profits. Read on for more 👇 @GRomePow @1CoastalJournal @m3_melody @NipseyHoussle @IDKFA3 @SixFinance

CoStar News

@CoStarNews

11 months

D.R. Horton closed on 22,928 homes during its fourth quarter that ended Sept. 30, and plans to close on between 18,500 homes and 19,000 homes during the first quarter of fiscal 2024, showing diminished demand for houses amid challenging economics.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

Residential construction spending is in full contraction mode. Down 29% from it's peak in 2022. A 🧵on potential implications before tomorrow's new home sales data is released. @KennyCap_Phd wanna add any sub sect #'s? 1/10

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

9 months

Borrowers with Credit Card and Auto Loan delinquency have reached levels matching recession in 2008/09 with Real Estate rising.

St. Louis Fed

@stlouisfed

9 months

As measured by debt delinquency, the share of Americans experiencing financial distress rose in 2023. With credit card debt, the distress has returned to a level seen during the Great Recession

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

Ok, a 🧵on the settlement. But let's cover some basics. To do so, let's start at the beginning: This is what the MLS Used to be. It's important to understand this. Because back in the day, a buyer broker usually had these and helped people find a property. 1/13

Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

Y'all are gonna make me a do a 🧵 on this NAR real estate settlement. The amount of inaccurate information and wrong headlines flying around is insane.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

18 days

unusual_whales

@unusual_whales

19 days

A 40-year mortgage should be the new American standard for first-time homebuyers, two-time presidential advisor says per FORTUNE.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

🧵 If you missed the spaces yesterday, please give it a listen. We discussed this divergence when New homes for sale outpace new home sales. Plus here's a thread with some charts we didn't get to drop. And thanks to everyone who listened. 1/6

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

6 months

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

11 months

🧵update on Multifamily and all Residential Construction. Plus the answer to housing shortage/supply. @GRomePow @NipseyHoussle @texasrunnerDFW @KennyCap_Phd @TrishaFLsun @m3_melody

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

11 months

🧵 As a precursor to next Week's New Home Sales data release, I thought I'd take a moment to let everyone know that Single Family Homebuilding Construction is in contraction. And we just hit the average month to recession from contraction. @GRomePow @NipseyHoussle 1/5

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

10 months

To every fellow student of economics, and those who seek more knowledge, this man is doing a service in sharing his knowledge. Thank you @RudyHavenstein for sharing it again. And thank you @DiMartinoBooth for bringing him onto @Hedgeye to discuss economics this year

Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator.

@RudyHavenstein

11 months

Lacy Hunt on Milton Friedman & the end of the gold standard in 1971. "The gold outflows served as a kind of control mechanism on bad policy, monetary and fiscal...we've lost a significant amount of our trend economic growth."

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

10 months

A very short thread 🧵 1/4 wtf you doomer, how dare you tell me there are different phases of an economic business cycle

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

5 months

Want to know how well new home sales are going? Let's check on how much inventory sold last month: 11% How's that look? See for yourself 👇I know a lot of people working their tails off to make things move. Time to grind. CC: @m3_melody @KennyCap_Phd @TrishaFLsun

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

2008-2009 New FHA 90+ Day delinquency vs Today, no comment: @NeelyTamminga @m3_melody

Neely

@NeelyTamminga

7 months

👀"No Contact" and "Other" are both interesting. And for those wondering what this looked like in 2009... ( @m3_melody do you have a time series already built on this?)

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

11 months

40,000 new single family homes added in one day. Makes ya wonder about Inventory eh @m3_melody

Redfin

@Redfin

11 months

We're making it easier to discover new construction homes ✨🏠 Alongside adding 40,000 new construction listings to Redfin, we've launched features to help buyers discover new-construction communities and connect with home builders.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

And in a sign of prices having been unsustainable, here's delinquency due to "excessive obligations". I.E. servicing debt is getting difficult. @artimidore @KennyCap_Phd @KirkChivas @IGHO_2022 @RealJohnGaltFla 4/6

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

5 months

I'll let the Federal Reserve comments speak for themselves

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

5 months

I'm just going to leave this here.

Piker Capital

@PikerCapital

5 months

This was my CRE "oh sh*t" moment.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

5 months

The layoffs are increasing pace daily. Also, here's a handy guide to the increase/ (decrease) in unemployment rate by industry compared to April last year. 1/2

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

5 months

47,046 job cuts this month, so far #MacroEdge

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

11 months

@jgpuck99 @Lars57360069 @m3_melody @jimmydean197 @DiMartinoBooth So far, New Home Sales prices are contracting at the fastest pace on record. Where new goes, used follows.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

5 months

That face you make when you see the delinquency numbers on a big screen. ♥️ @MacroEdgeRes team

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

Here's by metro area. @TrishaFLsun take a look at Miami: >50% of households are delinquent enough to face foreclosure/eviction. @texasrunnerDFW DFW is at 43% of HHs. 2/6

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

10 months

Vacancy up, and checks notes, the opposite of a shortage. Hope everyone modeled higher for longer vacancy rates. CC @CXCarroll @DonMiami3 @m3_melody @KennyCap_Phd

CoStar News

@CoStarNews

10 months

The average vacancy for four- and five-star-rated apartments rose by 150 basis points in 2023, to 10.4%. At the same time, vacancy in mid-priced properties rose only 110 basis points to 7.1%.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

14 days

@DiMartinoBooth The man is in an impossible situation. He loses even when he does "the right" thing. There is no such thing as wining in that position. I criticize him and the Fed often, but I do think he's doing what he believes is the correct action to take. And I wouldn't want his job

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

11 months

@NorthmanTrader Hi Sven. We are working our way to that point. Single Family Homebuilding is already in contraction.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

A 🧵as I've seen a few posts lately about War and home prices. Which I find unhealthy. So here's a PSA about home prices and our fellow Americans. 1/7 The GFC literally occurred while the US was at war. 2007-2011 saw the heaviest US casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

10 months

Jingle Mail is alive and well. Even for Blackstone and mixed use buildings. CC @danjmcnamara @CXCarroll @DiMartinoBooth

CoStar News

@CoStarNews

10 months

More #office properties are being surrendered through so-called deeds in lieu of foreclosure, which are voluntary, unlike regular foreclosures that involve an involuntary seizure. Will this trend persist?

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

And before anyone says "Bailout", allow the Congressional Budget Office to remind you, that you the taxpayer have already guaranteed that these lenders and MBS buyers will be made whole in the event of default. That won't however, do anything to stop these homes from coming to

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

You may have heard "It's not the economy, it's just you." Meanwhile, the industries that make up the economy 👇

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

7 months

If you are a current job seeker/employed but looking - how is the current labor market for you? Comment below for discussion (mention sector, tenure, new grad, etc) - feel free to discuss if pertinent to someone you know directly as well (child, spouse)

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

4 months

The Federal Reserve has published it's mortgage asset transactions data yet again. For Q1, overall, we're continuing the deceleration path as is typical for recessionary periods by most accounts. A 🧵on mortgage asset transaction values by property type.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

7/7 Our entire monetary policy had to change in 1971 to pay for the deficit created by the Vietnam War. Next time you want to say wars are bullish for your depreciating asset, check yourself and give a thought to your fellow Americans. And maybe read a book or 2. Deprogram.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

9 months

Let's discuss the SAAR monster. A 🧵 This person thinks next year Homebuilders will suddenly rebound and build a million plus homes. This one's for you @m3_melody 1/10

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

4 months

Here's a comparison of home prices through 23 & 24 months since cycle peaks. 2006-08 vs 2022-24 on left. On the right is months 25 and on of the 06 cycle.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

4 months

Must watch from @DiMartinoBooth

TOP 10 Lies Being Told About the U.S. Economy - Danielle DiMartino...

Join Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, as she explores how the mainstream and financial media are persuading Americans that ...

www.youtube.com

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

10 months

I'd want to sell the 11,000 unit apartment portfolio if it lost this much money too. Lennar Multifamily distress a sign of what's to come?

Hiten Samtani

@hitsamty

10 months

Fatty: Lennar shopping 11,000-unit apartment portfolio. Higher-end units (Quarterra arm). Could divvy up and sell. JLL has the assignment. $4.5B number being thrown about. (via @pat_clark )

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

3 words: Resolution Trust Corporation

Daniel McNamara

@danjmcnamara

7 months

If today’s CRE situation is anything like the savings-and-loan disaster, we’re in for a lot of trouble. It culminated in the collapse of hundreds of lenders, the insolvency of the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation — which cost taxpayers many billions of dollars

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

2 months

AheMN:

Cornelius X. Carroll

@CXCarroll

2 months

$600k/unit for "affordable" housing. Folks, this is straight up grift and corruption. Keep an eye out for it where you live and call it out when you see it.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

5 months

In 5 working days

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

5 months

31,756 job cuts this month, thus far #MacroEdge

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

10 months

Proceed to tell everyone you love the US for its ability to build a business. Then send US dollars overseas for cheap labor/resources, then "no one could have seen it coming" when the US becomes dependent on overseas resources.

Nick Huber

@sweatystartup

10 months

While Twitter is on the topic of compensation I have a confession to make: I have 45 employees at my real estate private equity company and the average salary is $29,000 per year. 33 of my team members are located in the Philippines and LATAM and make $1k per month, or $5.45

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

@MacroEdgeRes Have people applying to construction jobs that have 10+ years work experience and zero in construction. Let alone physical labor

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

I'm seeing the same things Matt does. Anyone else?

Matt Stevens

@realmatt_re

6 months

We get positive jobs reports, but in the real world I see things like this - Person needs job has applied to 500+. Dozens reply in the same struggle. One applied to 2k jobs. No signs of distress in data, but massive distress obvious in real world. Who else is seeing this?

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

3 months

May new home sales decreased nearly 17% from May of 23. Sold as % of for sale matching August 2007 levels. Homes for sale reached a new post GFC high. Median price declined from April.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

But the stock market is up. And so are meme coins. 10/10 And go catch tonight's @MacroEdgeRes with @DonMiami3 and @RealJohnGaltFla

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

7 months

This evening a short update on: - KC Fed Employment Index - Inflation Data - Grandma Longs AI - Mid-month Job Cuts Update

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

For reference, when you include "due to national emergency". 5/6

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

9 months

Your friendly neighborhood reminder, the unemployment rate isn't really the unemployment rate. 1/3

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

3 months

@realest49919420 He who pours must also remember to pour into his own cup. Peace be with you.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

3 months

@axcilla We've collectively lost our ability to value money, time and experiences

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

8 months

Haha! The real estate market is so healthy the government is preventing foreclosures!

Michael Zuber

@1RentalataTime

8 months

Wow!! EXTEND AND PRETEND SORRY DOOMERS NAYBE 2026 WILL BE YOUR YEAR …

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

8 months

16,000 vacant apartments in Nashville. Costar confirmed

Kenny Capital

@KennyCap_Phd

8 months

Shake n Bake! @TheBondFreak @TrishaFLsun @m3_melody @MrAwsumb

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

Y'all are gonna make me a do a 🧵 on this NAR real estate settlement. The amount of inaccurate information and wrong headlines flying around is insane.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

15 days

Same for continuing claims. These are not leading indicators. They aren't coincidental indicators. Their rate of change can be leading. But by the time everyone is yelling about how bad things are, things will be improving and they've all been late to the reality again.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

"Home Price Declines are because builders are building smaller homes!" Here's the median and average sq ft of new houses sold going back 4 years. Smaller, yes. Let's put some perspective on the situation with a 🧵: 1/5

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

Let's put some visual fx to that layoff shall we? Follow the (borrowed) money.

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

6 months

Wells Fargo reportedly eliminated 300 employees in its Home Lending Servicing division today

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

Also the "No contact" category at 17.91% is ramping up and well beyond the peak during GFC which was 14.28%

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

YOY Multifamily Construction Starts.

Don Johnson

@DonMiami3

6 months

Very weak residential real estate report this am showing expanding weakness on the residential side, multifamily starts down almost 40% y/y, waiting for the inflection point in residential RE construction employment.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

It definitely appears that there's enough renters behind on payments facing eviction that is putting pressure on MF default. So now MF faces a supply glut, an increase in evictions, rising cost of $ on top of already discounting rents. Painful. 5/6

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

15 days

By the time everyone is talking about how bad unemployment is, it'll be improving and recession will be over.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

5 months

This is a real photo from an active jobsite/community of a publicly traded Homebuilder. Kitchen cabinet delivery. They were told to figure it out. @DonMiami3 @dedkatbouns @m3_melody @KennyCap_Phd

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

1 year

@CXCarroll @chamath @buccocapital Chamath introducing his next investment

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

13 days

"The restaurant industry has always been a testament to adaptability and creativity. Now more than ever, we must harness these qualities to redefine our path forward" - @dedkatbouns Don't miss this incredibly useful insight to flying into the storm and coming out the other side.

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

13 days

The MacroEdge 9/22 Weekly Ozone Report from the MacroEdge Team is now available: covering critical restaurant industry data, the implications of a 50bp cut, volatility, soft landing optimism, and more, below:

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

1 month

We're fools whether we dance or not, so we may as well dance - Japanese Proverb. Don't miss tonight's @MacroEdgeRes Does the Fed target housing? You decide 👇 also I may have proved @MichaelKantro 's rule is better than the SAHM rule including RE.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

15 days

Even recency bias can't show initial claims are remotely punctual. By the time initial claims and unemployment spike, recession is close to over or over. Because they're a product of the recession, not the other way around. 6/6

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

This house Kirk shared sold for $482k new in 2021. The same builder, same community, same house plan, NEW is now cheaper ($395k) than the already lowered asking price for the used home. With financing incentives to boot. Tell me again why used homes are immune to correction.

Kirk Chivas

@KirkChivas

7 months

already 7% lower than the 4/11/22 sales price! #parrish #FL @m3_melody @TrishaFLsun @GRomePow @MrAwsumb @PepeBrrrr @BankingNewsGuy @viscountallenby @JohnRavenda @artimidore @hrothgar_29 @jfc_jim @AustinWhittRE @windgineering @TSuppRedux

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

7 months

To Build or to RE BLDR: Shout-out to @m3_melody for the linked gem below 👇

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

8 months

Join us under the neon and catch our second edition of 'Redeye' (Bourbon and Data with Don, John, and Awsumb (MF Niagara Falls, Cisvidia, and RE BLDR) here, covering multifamily housing, the tech bubble, and more:

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

I'm a firm believer that life is very much about perspective. A 🧵 about photography, despite the charts about housing, interest rates and treasuries. 1/5

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

6 months

1) Someone else already paid for it (the borrower just stops paying them back) 2) When a debt is forgiven, it becomes income. Taxable income.

Rob Steinernomics 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

@Steinernomics

6 months

When a student loan is canceled, Treasury stops collecting principal & interest on it. That’s it. Nothing else happens and it has no discernible effect on anyone other than the borrower having more money to spend, save or invest. NO ONE ELSE PAYS FOR IT. Not you. Not me. NO ONE.

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Mr.Awsumb

@MrAwsumb

14 days

Ah yes. The two times rate cuts were bullish over 54 years. Good thing we can ignore everything but 85/95.

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