Dave Waters @alluvialcapital Twitter profile

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

Just found a Scandinavian company where the CEO sold $300k worth of shares and in the press release he goes "Don't worry, it's not because I don't believe in the company. I have to fund my divorce." I respect the honesty.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

I found something wild: Graybar Electric is a private employee-owned company that is an SEC filer because it has many shareholders. Employees may purchase company shares at $20. Any guesses what the company's per-share earnings are? $17! And it pays dividends of $4/share!

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Though I usually avoid emerging markets, I am finding value in UK stocks.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

"We are not PacWest." "Again, WE ARE NOT PACWEST."

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Elon Musk’s neigh-sayers were onto something.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Poland, man. Where else can I find companies growing revs at 30%+ with 30% ROE, great FCF at 6-8x EBIT? Downside: Shares get rocked on every tiny bit of political or macro trouble. This week it is rumors of new COVID lockdowns. But sized accordingly, I like the risk/reward.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

This is the ideal management compensation scheme. You may not like it, but this is what peak alignment looks like.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Still not sure what a mental model is. It kinda seems like it’s just…thinking?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

I like FinTwit because I get to interact with investors in various countries. Speaking broadly, the Swedes love acquirers and gaming stocks. The French love family-run holdcos and industrials. The Spanish and the Italians love micro-caps. The Brits are so, so depressed.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

10 months

Going inactive until this place is under new ownership. Sad because I have made so many friends and connections here. I respect so many of you even when we disagree. But I can’t stomach the raging anti-Semitism and all the actual Neo-Nazis spreading their putrid ideology.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

I see people doing napkin math like "X company has Y assets and it trades at 40% of Y, how come so cheap?" and it's completely irrelevant because management are grifters with a multi-decade record of destroying value. Doesn't matter what Y is. Shareholders will never benefit.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

I am pleased to share Alluvial's Q1 letter. We're keeping it weird, as always. ECIP banks, transformers (not of the Autobot variety) and a Poconos getaway. Thanks for reading.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

4 years

Never, ever invest in an over-levered capital-intensive business, no matter how low the EBITDA multiple or how eye-popping the "free cash flow yield" may appear. The high debt service means these firms are always under-investing, and any "FCF" is merely borrowed from the future.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Defeat the IRS with this one weird trick! Depreciate 117% of your property and equipment.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

I enjoyed talking investing with @BillBrewsterTBB Thanks for having me on.

Dave Waters - Searching Nooks and Crannies

Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital Management, LLC stops by The Business Brew to discuss how he approaches investing. You can find all his letters, partnership in

podcasts.apple.com

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

I just bought 2% of a small hotel/resort at $70k per key and a 25% cap rate on 4-year average results (2020 excluded.) The OTC markets aren't what they used to be, but there is still fun to be had.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Surreal experience today. I went to a shareholder meeting and voted my shares in person. Turns only I was the ONLY SHAREHOLDER to vote my shares against the nominees. The result? 29,000 to 3. And they knew it was me since they examined my broker statement at the door. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

I have been buying a Canadian micro-cap. This is only notable because buying Canadian micros is the investing equivalent of covering your front yard in rat traps and running around barefoot and blindfolded.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Not an economist and happy to be corrected, but is it possible that interest rate increases are of limited effectiveness against inflation when that inflation is driven by supply-side shortages? Insufficient housing, energy, semiconductors, etc.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

I am happy to share Alluvial's Q4 letter. 2021 was a good year, even if it already feels like distant history. Thanks for reading. $PX $LICT $CRAWA $GTX $UD.MI $TIM.WSE

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Have to laugh when a company is so accustomed to losing money that on the rare occasion they don't, they forget to change "operating loss" on the income statement.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

I used to think there was plenty of alpha in complexity, in finding situations where value was obscured by complicated corporate structures and accounting. Now I am less sure.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

I found an intriguing German business that has really delivered for shareholders, 26% annualized over 15 years: Mutares SE $MUX.DE. Mutares is a turnaround specialist focusing on carve-outs from large businesses. After fixing up these scratch-and-dent assets, it sells them.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

There's a Mexican stock that is the cheapest, highest quality thing I have ever seen, but crazy illiquid. I've been bidding for a month and so far I have $210 worth of shares. Not gonna give up though.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

I just learned the Bulgarian Stock Exchange has its own bull statue, with one difference: it is nightmarish.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Years ago I used to run a screen for companies with big 5-year share price underperformance vs. market while growing revs./earnings at above-market rate. Trying to catch companies toward the end of a growth-to-value transition. Incredibly, $ADBE once popped up. Time to run again?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

I’m at the airport and I just saw a guy whose green t-shirt read, and I quote: EAT SLEEP BUY BRK REPEAT

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

4 years

Apropos of nothing, I truly loathe IFRS 16 lease treatment. I understand the intent, but I don't think a single company's financials are more clearly stated because of it.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

Heads up: IBKR added Denmark! Some kind of communication would have been nice but I will take it.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

4 years

I am happy to share Alluvial Capital Management's Q2 letter. I discuss several of our holdings, plus the allure of companies that operate with negative working capital. $PIOE $NUVR $LICT $MMAC $BUKS $PIF.TO $CRAWA

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

They are called small caps because they are all little liars.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

What's your most asymmetric investment? Where there's a serious risk of failure but if it works it REALLY works and you like the risk/reward? I own some Spanish Broadcasting System $SBSAA. It's a $15m market cap sliver atop $300m of debt. Enterprise value is 5% equity.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Here is Alluvial's Q4 letter for your consideration. Thoughts on what's going well and what...isn't. $PX $GTXAP $FLTF $SXP.TO $UD.MI $JOB

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

A correction is when other people's stocks go down. A bear market is when mine do.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

11 months

Everyone wants "contrarian, counter-consensus ideas" and then everyone gets mad when these ideas don't perform in the short term.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Got away for a few days with the beautiful @babeascorpus to celebrate our anniversary. 8 wonderful years and the best is yet to come.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Here is Alluvial's Q3 letter. I am in these crazy ECIP banks and still very excited about P10 $PX and Unidata $UD.MI. Plus quick updates on $HRBR $GTXAP and $JOB. Thanks for reading.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

I feel like I have read this output nearly verbatim a time or two this year.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

I am pleased to share Alluvial's Q1 letter. It's tough out there! Still, I see plenty of opportunities for those willing to look out a few years. $PX $JOB $HRBR

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

This is NOT me calling a bottom or saying we are close to one, but I am seeing some disorderly trading in illiquid equities. Stuff gapping down 8-10% and bids widening. For anyone waiting on the real fear to arrive, I think it's here.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

I am intrigued by this thesis on Japanese companies returning capital and boosting ROE. However, some googling lead me to a white paper making the same case....written in 2015. Does this new government initiative have teeth or is this just more hopium for investors? Opinions?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

I am begging male FinTwitters to learn about philosophies and worldviews other than Stoicism. Yes, I know those stone busts of ancient Greek guys look cool. That doesn't mean their ideas are the be-all and end-all.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Confession time. Lest anyone think my recent success with P10 Holdings has gone to my head, I also bought Contura Energy warrants $CNTWW in the low $20s and rode them down to $0.60 for a 97% loss before selling. The price now? $17.70. Win some. Lose some. Learn and improve.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Trivago $TRVG anyone? Shares are totally bombed out. But, they have half their market cap in cash, produce a lot of cash, are repurchasing shares, and trade around 2x EV/2022 EBITDA with little capex. Interesting here?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Got a Zoom meeting with a family office in the AM. The paint will come right off, right?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

4 years

Alluvial's Q4 letter is available. Thank you for reading.

Fund Information

Visit the post for more.

alluvialcapital.com

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

As promised, here's a link to our presentation on a tiny, little-known, and cheap French compounder: We.Connect SA! $ALWEC.FP Thanks for reading.

Research

Welcome to Alluvial’s public research portal. Please enjoy our writings on various securities and strategies, and mind the disclaimers. We.Connect SA — November 2022

alluvialcapital.com

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

4 years

Maybe he ALSO has an IBKR support ticket that has been open for three weeks....

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

You are celebrating the $NVDA results, I am getting on the inaugural call for a $25mm rural Michigan telco spin-off. We are not the same. (I am worse.)

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

One of my favorite "hold-forever" Canadian stocks, Logistec $LGT-A.TO/$LGT-B.TO, looks pretty cheap at 11x trailing earnings. 50+ consecutive years of profits, dominant position in Eastern Canadian and US marine port services, and long-term tailwinds in its water infra. biz.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Alluvial’s Q2 letter is now available. Reading might be more fun than looking at your portfolio today.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Charlie Munger, in the Daily Journal $DJCO shareholder letter: "The Company is confidently trying to get prosperous slowly..." Also Charlie Munger: "Watch me YOLO another 300k shares of $BABA. On margin. Riskin' it for that slow prosperity. #slopro "

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

This is exactly how you DON'T write an earnings release/PR statement. @OurBank3

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

11 months

Today I learned Taco Bell Netherlands has a €2mm crowdfunded bond issue that yields 8.6%. ISIN: NLNP02000448. I don't think I can Live Mas until I figure out to buy this.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

Here is Alluvial's Q2 letter. Discussion around Logistec $LGT-B.TO, Preformed Line Products $PLPC, plus the usual smattering of updates and expert market purchases. Thanks for reading.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

@puppyeh1 Guy outs himself as a Nazi 5 tweets in with the old (((Triple Parentheses.))) Absolutely nothing worthwhile here.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Anybody got a weird security or three I can check out this weekend? There are only so many hot dogs to eat and fireworks to set off. Gonna need some other entertainment. The smaller and less liquid the security, the more I like it.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Basically me, since launching Alluvial in 2014. A solid Midwit. And I've done very well, but it does get frustrating watching the market bid up some really marginal companies on flows alone.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

I'll look at a Nordic tech consultancy company and it's called "Data Edge ASA" or some such. Then I'll check out a similar UK company and it's "M. H. Boggington & Sons House of Computer Wonderments Plc."

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Just found the most egregious management comp structure. Execs are entitled to 33% of EBITDA over an annual target. What's the target? Whatever the comp. committee chair and the execs collectively decide it is! So far in 2022, the accrued bonus is 6% of YTD revenue.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

Almost ludicrously good results from envelope and packaging manufacturer Supremex $SXP.TO I wish all my holdings were this boring.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

Extraordinary news from Garrett Motion $GTX today, announcing it will collapse the share structure and repurchase 23% of its shares. Stock is flat, probably because some were hoping for an outright sale. Shares are ~5x earnings with a high teens FCF yield when this shakes out.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

Breaking: I have acquired another $1 worth of shares.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

The market hates my stocks, but I just spent an hour on the phone with the investor I most admire and aspire to be. Today is a good day.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Found a small German holdco that just sold two assets and now has net cash (after tax) of 115% of market cap. Also has continuing ops. probably worth 50% of market cap. Plans to pay a big dividend in '23. Anyone have an idea what kind of withholding tax I would be up against?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Here are Alluvial's Q2 thoughts. A few others beat me to posting my own letter, but that's OK! I'm grateful for the enthusiasm from investors I respect. $PX $GTXAP $UD.MI $TIM.WS

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

I'm making the switch. Please join me on my new Substack, Exploring With Alluvial Capital!

Exploring with Alluvial Capital | Dave Waters | Substack

In search of value in the market's forgotten corners. Click to read Exploring with Alluvial Capital, by Dave Waters, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

alluvial.substack.com

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

So tired. Each day Americans are offered a choice between the lives of children and their personal right to own high-capacity semi-automatic weapons. And we choose the guns every time.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Found on a private REIT's website. This is what investors say right before they lose a ton of money.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

"For as long as you work here, or until your death if you make a career of this, here's a quasi-savings account with a 20% yield." Now that's a perk.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Alluvial's Q3 letter is here. Discussion on the P10 $PX IPO, Italian fibercos $UD.MI $ITD.MI, LICT Corp. $LICT, special sits $PEGROPREF.SS and $WHLRD, and updates.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Biglari takes control of a micro-cap O&G producer. Turns around and invests $19.5 million of target's cash in his own fund, Lion Fund II. You're welcome, minority shareholders!

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

Anyone else not having much fun in the arena lately?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

I am very pleased to share Alluvial's Q1 letter. Telcos, telcos, telcos! Plus updates on P10 $PIOE and Crawford United $CRAWA, a look at Ohio clay pipe manufacturer Logan Clay $LGNC, progress at Wheeler REIT $WHLRD and selling MMA Capital Holdings $MMAC.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

TIM SA gets taken out at zł 50.69/share, a 34% premium to today's close. Honestly I had hoped to hold this one for a long time, but I'll take the nice premium and go hunting for the next Polish bargain.

TIM SA

@TIM__SA

2 years

Rozpoczyna się nowy okres w ponad 35-letniej historii TIM SA - TIM dołączy do międzynarodowej #W ürthGroup 👉

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

4 years

My pizza game has been strong of late.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

Another $100/share special dividend from Boston Sand & Gravel $BSND makes $200 in the last 9 months. Who says you can’t make money with boring stocks?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Weird but I would almost rather this company loan its president $500k than $15k. Then I know it’s for a house or at least some fancy toy. Why does a company president need a $15k loan?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Shares of Sears Holdings were officially canceled today after nearly four years in bankruptcy. How many billions in Value Investooor capital did Sears wind up incinerating along the way?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

What's a small industry that surprisingly has a few public companies? Let me throw one out: fishing tackle. I used to tie a Rapala lure on for bass, never knowing they're listed in Finland. $RAP1V

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

The gross margin on soap is pretty wild! 72%! I never would have guessed. But somehow this particular soapseller still manages to lose money.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

What's the statistically cheapest stock you know? P/E, EV/EBITDA, or FCF yield. Or even discount to asset value though I'm more of a cash flow investor.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

East 72's letters are reliably great reads. Light on the macro pontificating, heavy on the thoughtful value theses. Zero quotes from Stoic philosophers, no tired Buffett/Mungerisms, absolutely no "The Man in the Arena" references.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

Handsome loaves if I do say so myself.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

I woke up to see a guy tagging me in an unrelated thread that he wants to “roundhouse kick me in the face” because we disagree on a stock. Unhinged stuff. It’s only stocks, everyone. How about we keep the threats of violence to a minimum?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

A micro-cap company hiring an "external investor relations provider" is always a red flag for me. The best IR for a small co. is growing revenue and generating profit. An e-mail inbox and phone number is all the IR needed if the company is executing on a viable business plan.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

OK. After much reflection, I present my full, final, and complete latticework of mental models. You will see it is unassailable. Reflect on these mysteries, and remember me when you achieve investing enlightenment.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

What a year. Thanks to too many to mention for encouraging my better instincts, checking my worse ones, and for the endless entertainment. There are so many smart, hilarious people on here who share their knowledge and experience and ask nothing in return. Here's to 2022.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

5 years

Convinced Interactive Brokers I am not, as they suggested, an "affiliate" of the several micro-cap OTC stocks where we hold large positions. Trading resumes for now but the message is clear: IB is no longer viable for investing any reasonable amount of capital in illiquid names.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

At the natural history museum. Gonna tell my kids these are value investors.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

2 years

Bellini Nautica, an Italian trader and restorer of vintage boats, goes public raising €3.5 million. Tiny but long-tenured and profitable. Why can't we have nice things like micro IPOs here in the States?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

I created an account on a New Zealand unlisted stock quotation service and now I get daily e-mails with info on the kiwi crop and wool prices. It's truly enjoyable.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

5 years

I am pleased to present Alluvial Capital Management's Q2 2019 letter to partners, available here.

Fund Information

Visit the post for more.

alluvialcapital.com

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

I spent the whole weekend all excited to buy a Canadian stock today. Trades entered, ready for those sweet executions and... Victoria Day.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

That's ice cold, Insider Monkey. How about highlighting one of my good investments some time? 😂

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

3 years

“Dad, can we play in the snow today, and make snowballs? “Of course, buddy.” “But don’t hit me in the face with a snowball like last year.” I will be hearing about that mistake as he wheels me into a 3rd-rate nursing home.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

4 years

The CFA Level 4 is just calculating the efficient frontier between the monetary and psychological value of delaying paying annual dues and the risk that they actually deactivate your charter.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

There are some fixed-to-floating preferreds out there that go floating next year and will pay 11-12% of par value if rates stay high. If the issuers can issue new prefs at 8-9% and call the floaters, great IRRs for prefs currently at 10-15% discounts to par. Anyone else looking?

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

Requesting input from the community! I'm not ready to get a Bloomberg terminal. But I need a less pricy but still robust solution to pull in news from global sources on M&A, spin-offs, re-caps, bankruptcies, etc. Filters, alerts, a plus. What's good for this? Must be global.

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Dave Waters

@alluvialcapital

1 year

SEDAR+ is somehow worse than SEDAR Classique. This is a positive for those looking for cheap value in Canadian stocks, but a negative for those same stocks actually moving. I can't imagine why a country would try to increase the cost of capital for SMEs like this.

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