Invariant Perspective @InvariantPersp1 Twitter profile

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@Mobyhaque1

Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

5 years

Modern capitalism in a nutshell... #unicorn

Alexandra Stevenson

@jotted

5 years

This is a story of a Chinese town that once made the world's bicycles. It was whiplashed by a boom and sudden bust in bike-share start-ups (the guys who flooded cities w/ millions of 'dockless' bikes). Now it's dealing with the mess left behind w/ @caocli

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@yuanyi_z @cafetero7878 New York Times Book Review

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@OnePerfectShot 2001: A Space Odyssey

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@adam_tooze Here's Nancy Pelosi at JFK's inauguration gala.

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@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition Get ready for another epic US #Dollar short squeeze... $DXY 📈

SentimenTrader

@sentimentrader

4 years

USD sentiment: Dollar Optimism Index is at the *lowest* 1% of readings over the past 10 years. Traders have rarely been this bearish on USD A rally in USD could be a major risk for stocks in the months ahead.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

@PriapusIQ How about median monthly salaries so the results aren't skewed by billionaires?

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #StockMarket #Bubble Europe edition #EuroSTOXX #EuroSTOXX50 📉

Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

2 years

*EURO STOXX 50 FUTURES SLUMP AS MUCH AS 3.1% AMID ENERGY CRISIS

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

23 days

@DiMartinoBooth @Hostess_Snacks @Phillips66Co @axios @KelloggsUS @Teradata When the largest children's hospital in the USA is laying off people by the thousand, you know things are bad! 😬

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

23 days

Texas Children’s Hospital is laying off 5% of its workforce - or over 1,500 employees #MacroEdge

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

8 months

#recession ... #GFC2 US #CRE edition #commercialrealestate #CMBS 📉 👀

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

8 months

Now there’s a headline: “Blackstone’s Defaulted NYC Office Loan for Sale at 50% Discount” “The debt against 1740 Broadway, which is packaged into a CMBS, is being marketed at ~ $150M, a 50% discount” Looks like that 2024 rebound will have to wait… cc @danjmcnamara @business

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... US edition It's official... and it happened before any of the #coronavirus lockdowns. 📉

*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

4 years

U.S. ECONOMY ENDED EXPANSION AND ENTERED RECESSION IN FEBRUARY 2020 - NBER

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

9 months

@buccocapital 😬

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@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

1 year

Eek. I was there at the time. It was painful to see that headline cross.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@biancoresearch Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Peru, Pakistan South Korea, etc... and now the Bank of Japan and soon the ECB, too. Then cue the return of rate cuts, QE and Dollar FX swap lines!

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US #PPI #producer #inflation edition The similarities to 2008 (and 2020) keep piling up!

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

Eat reality.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

11 months

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Housing Bubble 2.0 edition #RealEstate #Property #Mortgages 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

11 months

"Homebuyers in Miami need to earn $143,000 annually to afford the area’s typical monthly mortgage payment of $3,580, and Newark buyers need to earn roughly $160,000 to afford that area’s $3,989 payment."

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@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition As $DXY starts rising again, watch the men who called it --- @JeffSnider_AIP & @SantiagoAuFund , hosted by @EmilKalinowski --- on why and what's next. I'll buy that #Milkshake for a #Eurodollar !

28 Brent Johnson and Jeff Snider (also 'George Gobel')

Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, joins Jeff Snider to discuss central banks, public relations, modern monetary theory, politically-directed investment...

www.youtube.com

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@InvariantPersp1

3 years

@GreenZenForest @iv_technicals All that hot air?

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@InvariantPersp1

4 months

@ATRightMovies Cybill Shepherd, here in The Last Picture Show (1971) 👀

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@zerohedge The Grim Streamer 🩸🎥

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... #StockMarket #Euphoria edition via @DiMartinoBooth It's clear that very few current investors have ever experienced a secular bear market... #sentiment

Michael Batnick

@michaelbatnick

4 years

Just 4% of investors in the Barron's Big Money poll are bearish on U.S. stocks for 2021.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... US #RealEstate #Bubble 2.0 edition At the start of #GFC2 , there are now already twice the number of mortgages in forebearance as there were at the start of the first #GFC in early 2008... #housing #property #REIT #RMBS

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

4 years

Will the traditional lag time in residential real estate market apply in the current cycle? Or will time also be compressed in housing? ht ⁦ @andrew_demaio ⁩

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Labor edition Retirement is being retired 👇

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

Correction: Retirees ALREADY returning to the workforce. This trend will accelerate.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

4 years

@tracyalloway @avalonpenrose The people with hedges have lost their edges

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@InvariantPersp1

17 days

@DiMartinoBooth The gaslighting is not new, of course, and may be a sign of things to come (soon). 👀

Don Johnson

@DonMiami3

17 days

Had to dust off this real gem of an article from back in the day… #MacroEdge

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition "Powell the Volcker" or back to "Powell the Pivoter"? A pivotal time ahead!

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

Powell’s mission to kill the Fed Put is increasingly uphill. The ranks of his closest lieutenants is dwindling by the sounds of the minutes. The doves are galvanizing around their goal to ensure today’s Fed is no different than yesterday’s Let’s see if Powell can hold his ground

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@shortl2021 @FriendlyBearSA People forget history: overproduction plus reduced consumer demand due to Stock Market collapse = #deflationary spiral = #depression

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition MUST WATCH!! @MetreSteven interviews @JeffSnider_AIP on #deflation and the #Eurodollar based global monetary system. #Fed #QE #ZIRP #ShadowMoney

Inflation Fairy Tale: Why It's Deflation We Should Worry About (w/...

Is inflation on the horizon? Should bank reserve balances stored with the Federal Reserve count as "money"? According to Jeffrey Snider, head of global resea...

www.youtube.com

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... #GFC2 edition Companies taking out more #debt to rescue other companies that are insolvent from too much #debt , made possible by an #SEC rule change this year that allows them to #leverage themselves even more... isn't this how #Ponzi #schemes work? 🤔 👇

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

4 years

To think that the $812B private debt market has been the “It” girl asset class these past few years. “In a harbinger of what’s to come, Portman Ridge Finance Corp. just watched a company that it’s helped finance since 2015 collapse in a matter of weeks.”

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition Beware the bull steepening of the #YieldCurve ! The belly of the curve goes down first and then the front end collapses when the #Fed is finally forced to cut rates in a panic (escalator up, elevator down!). 👀

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

1 year

Articulate. Accurate. Astute.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

11 months

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Labor edition #layoffs #jobless #unemployment 📈

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

11 months

Consider yourself WARNED.

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@InvariantPersp1

1 month

#recession ... #StockMarket Bubble edition

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

@hussmanjp

1 month

New comment is up! 🦆🫧😀 You're Soaking in It

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@InvariantPersp1

1 year

@donnelly_brent The joke doesn't account for what happens to the sh*t after they eat it. Narrator: More sh*t (after maturity transformation). 💩

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition Q2 US #GDP estimate now -2.1%! 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

LIGHTNING HAS JUST STRUCK TWICE IN ONE DAY (FIRST WAS ISM NEW ORDERS CONTRACTING) @AtlantaFed JUST CUT ITS Q2 GDP FORECAST TO -2.1%. (LUCKY FOR @federalreserve OFFICIALS, THEY'RE BUREAUCRATS WHO'VE ALREADY LEFT EARLY FOR LONG WEEKEND) cc @TheBondFreak

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@InvariantPersp1

6 months

NotablePhotos

@NotablePhotos

6 months

In Norway, ‘Texas’ Is Slang for ‘Crazy’

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@InvariantPersp1

3 years

@DereckCoatney That's not a megaphone... This is a MEGAphone 📣 👇

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@M_C_Klein Fusion has almost an order of magnitude higher efficiency for converting mass to energy. And it requires only hydrogen isotopes that can be obtained from water as fuel, rather than radioactive heavy elements (uranium, plutonium, etc).

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... #CommercialRealEstate edition So much for all those #Retail #Sales #Jobs ... #unemployment #layoffs 📈 #Property #REIT #CMBS 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

4 years

Yet another retailer... ht ⁦ @YfyGomez ⁩

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

@DiMartinoBooth @pboockvar @amazon $AMZN not looking as good under the hood... #CreativeAccounting 👇

Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #Tech Bubble 2.0 edition

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@web3isgreat

Pat Dennis

@patdennis

2 years

Sick of people calling everything in crypto a Ponzi scheme. Some crypto projects are pump and dump schemes, while others are pyramid schemes. Others are just standard issue fraud. Others are just middlemen skimming of the top. Stop glossing over the diversity in the industry.

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@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #GFC2 #Commodities edition #Lumber 📉 👀

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

7 months

@UrbanKaoboy @hussmanjp @jessefelder 😬

HZ

@MFHoz

7 months

New York Times October 16, 1929

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition The cure for high yields is high yields... signaled by the #YieldCurve same as 16 years ago. #GFC2

Eric Wallerstein

@ericwallerstein

2 years

The 6-Month Treasury bill yield is encroaching upon 5% for the first time since 2007. @WSJmarkets :

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #StockMarket Bubble edition The similarities to 2008 keep piling up!

Game of Trades

@GameofTrades_

1 year

Bear Stearns collapsed in March 2008, leading to a 3-month rally in stocks 3 months ago, SVB collapsed Here's why the current stock market rally may not last 🧵

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@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition via @siddiqui71 & @bondstrategist The #Fed Reverse #Repo Program ( #RRP ) is where much needed US #Dollars go to die as global market participants hoard as much money as they can... $DXY 📈

Amit Noam Tal

@amital13

4 years

As we take huge strides towards the ZLB, the Fed is actually starting to reduce market liquidity by the RRP Foreigners are also starting to take liquidity out of the market - the dollar has bottomed out #DXY @siddiqui71 @Stimpyz1 @gamesblazer06

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Labor edition Now putting even 2008 to shame! #wages #Income 📉 👀

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

1 year

Yes. Yes I do. Look at the ABRUPTNESS of that move. THIS IS THE FACE OF RECESSION

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

By the way, it’s not just the US that’s in recession. @Quillintel @SoberLook

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@IL0VEthe80s #Moonlighting @moon_podcast85

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@InvariantPersp1

3 years

#recession ... #GFC2 #Commodities edition Dr. #Copper ... Heal Thyself 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

3 years

Despite low supplies, copper tumbled by the most in 4 months, dropping w/other industrial metals as investors focused on the potential hit to demand from weakness in China’s economy & the looming debt crisis at China Evergrande Group. @business

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@InvariantPersp1

1 year

@JackFarley96 Looks the same as the lead-up to the Great Recession as companies draw as much credit as possible to ride out the bad times.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

3 years

#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

3 years

"Many people who remember Prof. Friedman's words think we should have inflation, but they don't remember his algebra…" #DrLacyHunt and #DiMartinoBooth via RealVision @Quillintel

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

5 months

#recession ... #GFC2 US #bankruptcy edition Ernest Hemingway being proven correct once again as the similarities to 2008 keep piling up!

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

5 months

“If pace (of bankruptcies of companies with >= $50M in liabilities) continues through Saturday, the week will top the end of April, 2009 when 16 big companies went bankrupt just as the US was climbing out of the Great Recession” @bloomberg on NINE big bankruptcies in last 3 days

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 month

The similarities to 2008 keep piling up! 👀

Eric Basmajian

@EPBResearch

1 month

Total housing units under construction are declining at an 11% annualized pace as of June. This is the first sustained contraction in units under construction in the post 2008 period.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

“Money is moving back to Treasuries after a lot of red in the last couple of months. Is this a panic? Is a recession coming? Not yet, but people are asking themselves, maybe we can take out some insurance.” @business

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@InvariantPersp1

11 months

@Mayhem4Markets @TraderadeTweets Totally sustainable 👀

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

3 years

@TheMarketDog @chamath His pinned tweet fully explains why he's now MIA 🤣

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

All of the 3-month/10-year purists are about to find religion...

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@SpecialSitsNews @Crussian17 @stocktalkweekly @MomAngtrades @mommavestor @rhemrajani9 @JLinWins @TSDR_Trading @StockMarketNerd @StockMKTNewz @ShanghaiMacro "Fortune favors the brave"? 🤔

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #GFC2 US #manufacturing #PMI edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

1 year

A QUICK WORD FROM THE NATION’S FACTORY SECTOR: The Chicago PMI has just been released. If you’d rather not divine the details, let me help you out with a nifty shortcut: Number of components rising vs last month: ZERO

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #GFC2 US #CRE edition #commercialrealestate #CMBS 📉 🥶 @DiMartinoBooth @danjmcnamara

Trepp

@TreppWire

1 year

"Although the newest buildings performed the best relatively, their 52% value reduction is easily the most concerning, and displays truly how much distress is present in the #office sector,” #Trepp wrote." @GlobeStcom

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #PBoC Pushing on a String edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

This is the last thing Xi needs. @Quillintel @SoberLook cc @ChinaBeigeBook

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@InvariantPersp1

10 months

@RealEmirHan Cybill Shepherd

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@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #GFC2 US #CRE edition WeWork apparently not working for #commercialrealestate ... #CMBS 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

1 year

Cycle compression in CRE “WeWork & Rhone Group defaulted on loan for a San Francisco office tower…$240M loan was for a building at 600 California St. owned by funds managed by a venture formed by WeWork & Rhone in 2019 to buy & oversee real estate.” cc @danjmcnamara @business

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

11 months

#recession ... #GFC2 #Transports edition #Freight #Logistics #Trucking 📉 🥶

Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️

@FreightAlley

11 months

I’ve spoken with over a dozen folks in banking about the current state of freight brokerage. They all agree - we are on the cusp of an extinction level event for high growth freight brokers. I dove into what’s happening this evening in an article.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Pensions edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

Got mark-to-market? *Chicago pensions’ assets cover ~25% what’s owed v avg US state & local ~70% *Unfunded liability $33.7B >2x annual city budget *Since Sept mayor sent RECORD $512M earmarked for later payments to not force asset sales to raise cash cc @Stimpyz1 @business

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

3 years

@FinanceLancelot @EnronChairman Dire Straits (Money for Nothing)

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Auto edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

Paging @Stimpyz1 @AutomotiveLife1 “ @SPGlobalRatings is looking at downgrading a handful of bonds backed by subprime auto loans, the latest sign of growing strain among low-income borrowers that could ultimately hurt investors in lower-rated securities.” @business

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Housing Bubble 2.0 edition #RealEstate #Redfin $RDFN 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

iBuy No More @Redfin shuttering iBuying business & laying off workers for second time in ~5 months, as likelihood of prolonged housing slowdown continues to ripple through industry…in a blog post Wednesday it announced it would lay off >860 workers, ~13% of its staff @business

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Consumer edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

Meltdown? Yes you did. Being disabused of misinformation doesn't suit you. Raise taxes into an earnings recession while consumer sentiment, which you bizarrely said had risen after it fell to 11-year low per @UMich w/buying conditions at the lowest since 1978? @JeffBezos is right

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 months

@DiMartinoBooth @BLS_gov This goods #deflation exceeds even the 1937 nadir of the 2nd half of the Great Depression, let alone the 1954 aftermath of the Korean War supply shock or the 2008-09 GFC. Maybe the 1929-32 collapse or the 1920-21 Spanish Flu Depression compares? What's it take to get a rate cut?

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@warrenbachman1 @DiMartinoBooth @biancoresearch @profplum99 @MacroAlf @EPBResearch @42macroDDale @UrbanKaoboy $USD #Liquidity Squeeze to resume 📉

David Marlin

@Marlin_Capital

2 years

The S&P 500 has been moving in lockstep with money flowing in and out of the system. Stocks have rallied since Sept. with $200B flowing in. This is bad news for the future, though, as MS projects a $300B total liquidity drain into year end. $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $TSLA $NVDA

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

5 months

#recession ... #GFC2 Japan $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition And this is after the #BoJ just raised #InterestRates ! #fx #forex $JPY $USDJPY 💴 👀

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... #Japanification edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

4 years

This lower level of growth will be our target moving forward. Think about that. It’s the product of the financialization of US economy. Innovation killed via Fed money printing that encourages indexing (“Don’t Fight the Fed”) which accelerates monopolization & stifles competition

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@donnelly_brent @SantiagoAuFund That's a pretty uniform distribution among the 4 choices... in other words, maximum uncertainty among the crowd!

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US #CRE edition #CommercialRealEstate #RealEstate #REITs $REIT #CMBS 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

2023 will be the year of the strong balance sheet. Great 🧵

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... #GFC2 #UST #Bonds edition $TLT 📈 as per @MetreSteven

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

4 years

US bonds. I know I've been saying this for a while but I think that this might be the first big surprise of 2021 as yields collapse. Is it to do with Georgia? Jan 20th handover? Most likely the risks of a potential national lockdown...See UK for details.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition MOVE #volatility precedes the real move... down in long-dated Treasury #yields !

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

I can't recall a day the MOVE didn't move. But there you have it. UNCH on the day at very high level -- highest since summer 2009 and north of pandemic highs. Credit set-up nasty.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

3 years

#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

3 years

Or... Gracias @Stimpyz1

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #StockMarket Bubble edition #SPX #SP500 $SPY #ES_F 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

Our model of Fed liquidity is flashing warnings @t1alpha warns “This model has been closely tracking $SPX since mid-2020 & has done a reasonably good job of highlighting previous bear market rallies. With the current divergence in mind, our caution against this rally reiterated”

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #Crypto #Bubble edition #DeFi #Web3 #cryptocurrencies #Cryptocrash 📉

Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺🇦

@agnostoxxx

2 years

Good morning. Don’t be stupid. 🌳👋🏻

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@InvariantPersp1

25 days

@Mayhem4Markets Taiwan #StockMarket down 6.5% today 📉 ☠️

PiQ

@PiQSuite

25 days

⚠️ TAIWAN BENCHMARK INDEX <.TWII> FALLS AS MUCH 6.9% TO 20,154.63 POINTS, LOWEST SINCE LATE APRIL

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

Do economists know THEY are a lagging indicator? “A downturn by the start of 2024, barely even on the radar just a few months ago, is now close to a three-in-four probability, according to the latest estimates by @economics ”

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

18 days

#recession ... #GFC2 #Commodities edition #Copper 📉 🥶

Barchart

@Barchart

18 days

Copper Inventories have jumped to the highest level in more than 4 years signaling weak demand in Asia!

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #Crypto #Bubble edition #Coinbase $COIN #cryptocurrency #Cryptocrash 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

“Coinbase’s 10-year bond yields around 9.9%, up from ~3.62% when it sold debt in Sept. This compares w/yield of ~3.00% on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note, marking a gap of well over 600 bps, compared with closer to 200 bps when Coinbase issued debt”

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

4 years

#recession ... #Fed #Bailout edition Artificially created #Liquidity eventually evaporates back to where it came from... thin air. 👇

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

4 years

The process of destroying capitalism is, by definition, messy. As investors will (begrudgingly) discover, printed money cannot buy cash flow.

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

5 months

#recession ... #Tech Bubble 2.0 edition #ArtificialIntelligence #GenerativeAI 📉

Cory Doctorow NONCONSENSUAL BLUE TICK (AFK)

@doctorow

5 months

Guessing the next word without understanding the meaning of the resulting sentence makes unsupervised LLMs unsuitable for high-stakes tasks. The whole AI bubble is based on convincing investors that one or more of the following is true: 6/

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #Tech #Bubble 2.0 edition #Millennials and #GenZ clearly don't remember the #DotCom Bubble 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

“An employee asked (Zuckerberg) about extended vacation time as Facebook was preparing to announce weak ads sales, lower earnings & cratering revenues.” Reply “Realistically, there are probably a bunch of people at the company who shouldn’t be here”

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@InvariantPersp1

5 years

#recession ... China #Business edition "Sales managers at Chinese companies reported the worst conditions on record" "All gauges for manufacturing dropped from recent months, suggesting widespread problems" "China's factory deflation continued and deepened for the fifth month"

Bloomberg Economics

@economics

5 years

Early indicators show China’s economy slowing for a seventh straight month

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 months

@DiMartinoBooth @Redfin @m3_melody And this bodes poorly for prices going forward in many areas 👇 👀

Nick Gerli

@nickgerli1

2 months

This housing market downturn in Florida is getting crazy. There's ZIP codes where inventory has nearly tripled from its level last year. Like this one north of Tampa, in Port Richey. 248% growth in listings YoY. That's the sign of a major selloff. And indicates prices are

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@InvariantPersp1

5 months

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Labor edition #Employment 📉 👀

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

5 months

Yes is the answer on a net basis. We will cover this in depth in Monday's #DailyFeather but the worrisome trend is how many are taking on part-time work in addition to their full-time jobs. Making ends meet when the cost of essentials such as gas and groceries remain untenably

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

"The comeback in stocks in recent months translates to loosening in financial conditions in the eyes of Federal Reserve officials" by @BiIndia

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #Tech Bubble 2.0 edition Hard to justify this multiple expansion of the #NASDAQ over the past year considering how much interest rates have risen during that time for a very long duration asset. $COMPQ $QQQ $NDX #NQ_F 📉

Markets & Mayhem

@Mayhem4Markets

1 year

"NASDAQ earnings are down 29%, but the index is close to levels it traded at last year this time." - @AyeshaTariq

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

@DiMartinoBooth via @ncweaver

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #GFC2 US #Consumer edition The similarities to 2008 keep piling up!

Heather Long

@byHeatherLong

1 year

Here's the breakdown: Auto loan delinquencies are at an all-time high of 3.3 million. Credit card delinquencies are the highest since 2009 Consumer loan delinquencies are highest since 2010

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

8 months

@TheBondFreak @DiMartinoBooth @business Wonder why the #Fed added Japan's Norichukin Bank (the US & Europe CLO whale) to the list of its standing repo facility counterparties the same day SOFR jumped to a record high? 🤔

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

1 year

#recession ... #GFC2 US #CRE edition #commercialrealestate #CMBS 📉 👀 @DiMartinoBooth @danjmcnamara

CoStar News

@CoStarNews

1 year

New York City-based Clarion Partners has listed their office building in downtown San Francisco with a price that's roughly half what the investment firm paid nearly a decade ago. Read the full story by @KBurkeSF

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

10 months

#recession ... #GFC2 #Banks edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

10 months

Is it me or does this seem rather large? @RBC has injected $2.95 billion into City National Bank so far this year as part of an effort to clean up the California subsidiary’s balance sheet. @business

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@InvariantPersp1

6 months

@DiMartinoBooth 👀

Amy Nixon

@texasrunnerDFW

6 months

A lot of Texans are falling behind on their credit card bills 😬

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@InvariantPersp1

2 years

#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition Peak to trough #inversion of the #Eurodollar #Futures curve (the largest and most liquid futures market in the world) is now 190 basis points! 📉

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

2 years

As we segue to final month of the year, this is what the market is pricing in for 2023. Realistic?

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

3 years

#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

3 years

This is a great lesson in being careful about data timestamps. Monthly credit releases are VERY lagged. June current reference month Credit card data via @BankofAmerica show June marked peak in credit card spending & warn spending "decelerated meaningfully" in week ended July 31

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Invariant Perspective

@InvariantPersp1

3 years

#recession ... #Fed Pushing on a String edition Re: Banking Act of 1935 👇 Fed Gov. Eccles: "There is very little that can be done" Congressman Goldsborough: "You mean you cannot push on a string" Eccles: "That is a very good way to put it... We are in the depths of a depression"

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

3 years

@TheBondFreak shared this which screams for more stimulus Aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio at US banks reached 58% in Q2 2021, lowest in S&P Global Market Intelligence's database back to 2003. Bank margins drifted even lower in Q2 due to persistently low rates & excess liquidity.

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