Peter Boockvar @pboockvar Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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@ivdsai

Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

This is not a crypto coin, it is not a SPAC, it is not a meme stock. It is the chart of the Australian 2 yr government bond yield.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

10 months

COSTCO CEO said "I've gotten a couple of calls that people have seen online that we've been selling gold - 1 ounce gold bars, yes, and when we load them on the site, they're typically gone within a few hours and we limit two per member." #gold

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

Message today from Jay Powell and the Fed: "We're winging it, wish us luck"

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

The faster we all shut down, the faster we get to reopening.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

A quiet day in the market, the S&P 500 closes unchanged.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

After buying $1.3 Trillion of MBS since March 2020, Cleveland Fed president Mester said this today, "Fed doesn't want to get into credit allocation business."

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

BN: *SENATOR WARREN WORKING ON BIG OIL WINDFALL PROFITS TAX There goes that domestic oil supply that we now need so badly.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

‘Kitchen Appreciation Fee’, the new inflation offset. Food was great though.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

The trade with gold & silver is pretty straight forward here. If you believe Fed will get ahead of the curve or at least in line with it w/ regards to inflation then sell. If you think Fed will crab walk their tightening, then this selloff is a gift. I believe in the latter.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

Replace the word 'Inflation' with 'cost of living' and how does the Fed sound now?

CNBC

@CNBC

4 years

The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

When inflation runs much faster than wage growth.

Steve Hanke

@steve_hanke

2 years

Tuesday, in Lima, Peru, people were protesting fuel and fertilizer price hikes in San Martin Square. Take a look.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

The Fed's idea of confronting high inflation is to take the size of their balance sheet to $9 Trillion from about $8.5 Trillion today and by summer when the taper is done, still have rates at zero.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

Due to the new reality for commercial real estate from a sharp rise in interest rates, let's do some math in a thread:

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

Again, the BLS is badly miscalculating rent component by saying OER was up 3.8% y/o/y & Rent of Primary Residence was higher by 3.3% y/o/y. Apartment List said this week that 2021 rents were up by 17.8%. If the latter was punched into today's calculation, CPI would be above 10%.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

Being a bull and long gold and silver is financial sadomasochism but I'll continue to hang on and torture myself for what I still believe will be an eventual reward.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 months

Easily one of the strangest markets I’ve ever seen.

Jason Goepfert

@jasongoepfert

6 months

The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high. The Russell 2000 is still in a bear market*, down more than 20% from its high. That's never happened before.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

7 months

Ayn Rand would be proud, I hope this works

Geiger Capital

@Geiger_Capital

7 months

Javier Milei with an incredible speech… Not talking like a politician. Just a man. Announcing massive deregulation of the economy and condemning what got Argentina to the situation it’s currently in: Government overreach + reckless spending.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

Who in their right mind is buying negative yielding bonds you ask? Americans, many I'm sure in their 401k, via the Vanguard Total International Bond ETF, ticker symbol BNDX. It's biggest holding is a German bund maturing on August 15th 2029 and currently yielding -.29%.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

Chesapeake Energy's stock closed at $14.05 on Thurs, $24.80 on Fri & $69.92 today. After the close they announced the preparation of a chapter 11 bankruptcy & will hand the keys over to the bondholders. Imagine where the stock would be tmrw if we didn't get the Chap 11 news.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

I could care less about where Tesla's stock goes as I have no ax whatsoever but I do think perspective is always important. From 12pm est today until the 4pm close, it added Ford's entire market cap of about $26b.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 months

If you don't eat, drink, drive, and happen to live in a tent and take out other higher costs you don't like such as insurance, then there is little inflation.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

For those of us gold bulls feeling the pain and to those that are enjoying this if they are short, the 14 day RSI in gold is now the most oversold since August 16th 2018, the day it made its low.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

A few charts of tech stocks in the late 1990's for those that weren't around and a reminder to those that were: IOMEGA

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

So the 1970’s is a good comparison.

Phil Kerpen

@kerpen

3 years

Inflation is our friend! Wouldn't you like to own a $4,000 suit, and smoke a $75 cigar, drive a $600,000 car? I know I would! Everybody will be a millionaire!

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

1 year

BBBY has a 2024 bond that is trading at 6 cents on the dollar. Its stock doubled today. Party like it's 2021.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

10 months

The cost of auto insurance up 19% y/o/y in August and 2.4% in the month alone, wow.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

Gold's intraday chart today. After the algo's puked it right after the CPI figure because of the rate and dollar rise, it has rebounded. Can this reversal be a sign that it might finally trade as an important hard asset and inflation hedge in today's environment? I hope so.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

This is a valuation gut check but means nothing for stock market performance for now and thus is more just a perspective on things. The price to sales ratio in the S&P 500 is exactly at the same level as seen in early 2000.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 months

Yes, gold is an outstanding inflation hedge. In 1970, right before Nixon took us off what was left of the post WWII Bretton Woods gold standard, $1 bought you about 3 gallons of gasoline. Today, that same $1 will buy one about 27% of a gallon of gasoline. In 1970 when gold was

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

1 year

6 month T-bill yield at about 16 yr high.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

To be clear, negative interest rates is a weapon of mass confiscation. It is a tax and thus is restrictive policy, not accommodative.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

I always try to point out that all Fed easing does is push the rest of us to borrow more, whether a biz, household or gov't. Hearing Powell talk about hi debt levels today is like a bartender who has served drinks all night & then asks why everyone is drunk at end of the party.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

So the ECB, BOJ, SNB and Riksbank have negative interest rates but we determine that China is the currency manipulator whose currency is down a whopping 2.5% this year vs the dollar. Anger is now driving the approach towards China, certainly not economic logic.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

Powell is saying that 'forward guidance' is "powerful" stimulus. In fact, it's the exact opposite as telling us all that rates will stay at zero for at least 3 yrs creates no sense of urgency of acting now to do business, which is the whole point of effective stimulus.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

Nickel in parabolic move, aluminum, zinc, palladium have ripped higher, gold back above $2000 and silver still about 50% below its record high, hmmm.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

When wrong all year that inflation is transitory what does a central banker say now? BoE Governor Bailey: "TRANSITORY DOESN'T HAVE A FIXED TIME POINT"

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 months

If the economy is so good, believed by some, why are federal tax receipts coming in less than anticipated? Fair question I believe and gets to my continued belief that the US economy is very uneven with more pros mixed with cons than I've seen in all my years researching,

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

The inflation comments in a thread here from Costco's conference call last night: "inflationary factors abound: higher labor costs, higher freight costs, higher transportation demand, along with container shortages and port delays, increased demand in certain product categories,

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

Nothing new in Powell 60 min talk. Nice guy but he's no different. Voted to keep rates at 0 for 7 yrs & rounds of QE. Good intentions at Fed but nothing noble about encouraging debt over savings. He rightly mentioned opiod crisis but US economy has its own addiction to cheap $.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

Imagine for a second the Chinese government arresting the CFO of Apple.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

As the stock market likes to mess with as many people as possible it would be quite ironic if we bottomed at the depths of the shutdowns and top on the news of an effective vaccine.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

I have to say that I laugh when I hear people say it’s a “healthy correction.” No one ever says “dangerous rally.” Also, it's “profit taking” when we go down but no one says “profit seeking” when we rally.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

When you forcibly shut down an economy, jobs are lost. When you allow it to reopen, jobs come back. Simple. What is not simple from here is to what extent those businesses reopen and those jobs come back. Come August/September we'll get a good sense of things.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

Implied inflation rate 5 yrs out now at the highest since 2011 at 2.43%.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

8 years

I cannot warn enough that this rise in rates is happening when the world has never been more overlevered. We had an epic global bond bubble.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

I'm trying this again, with proper thread format. Central bank initiated NIRP is poison to a financial system & the dumbest idea in the history of economics.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

That only a 200 bps lift in the FF rate spread out over 3 yrs has stalled out housing & autos and has many complaining that the Fed is going too fast just highlights how addicted we all became to ZIRP & other central bank machinations & how sensitive we now are to the reversal.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

After a Fed career of encouraging government, businesses and households to borrow, borrow, borrow via easy money/QE, Janet Yellen now gets to eat her own cooking.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

We've now tariffed our way into a mfr'g recession in the US & globally. What’s the strategy now? Using tariffs as the tool to push back against China was a dumb idea & history will not look kind upon the strategy just as it didn’t for Reed Smoot, Willis Hawley & Herbert Hoover.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

@NorthmanTrader @federalreserve They are partners. The Fed buys Apple bonds, regardless of price or valuation. Apple takes the cash and buys its own stock, regardless of price or valuation.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 months

Jay Powell clearly leaned dovish today as even a strong labor market he said would not stop the beginning of rate cuts. And this is why the short end yield fell as it did. However, the long end is not really budging and is exactly the same 4.28%ish level it stood right before the

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

Japan, the land of no inflation, except now, said its October PPI jumped 1.2% in the month, 3 times what was expected and is up 8% y/o/y. Go back to January 1981 the last time that happened.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

I don't care if you're bullish, bearish or indifferent but if you're not in awe of what this market has done of late you have little understanding of market history and behavior.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

United Tech CFO today said the company will now focus on deleverging, not buybacks. Expect to hear a lot of that from Corporate America in 2019.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

For those in mkt only in past 10 yrs, they think Fed is Superman which always saves the day. For those with longer life span should remember that last 2 rate cut cycles didn’t see bottom in stks until END of those cuts, Hope for no cuts & better economy than cuts & a weaker one.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

Goldman estimates that 42% of the debt of Russell 2000 companies is floating, thus LIBOR based. Here is chart on 3 month LIBOR. Something to watch.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

The Fed's balance sheet now above $5T. You ain't seen nothin' yet.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

An update: the Italian 2 yr yield has given back 3 years of monetary suppression in 6 trading days.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

I guess central bankers are pretty happy with the Iranians as they might actually get the inflation they've been rooting for.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

Who knows why but today was the lowest NYSE volume day of the year.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

Warren Buffett, don't worry, the Fed's got your back as they buy Berkshire Hathaway energy bonds, along with Coca Cola and Apple bonds.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

Maybe Powell just wants to Volckerize the Fed and wean the economy and markets from the addiction of yrs of excessively cheap money and away from this seemingly endless regime of negative real interest rates and the legacy of QE.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

Natural gas price now going parabolic

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

I admit it. I'm a gold bug. And those that aren't are then paper bugs. My bug has lasted thousands of yrs more than your bug. There is no shame in being a gold bug if you question and/or criticize modern day monetary activism. Don't be afraid to admit it.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

I might be stating the obvious to many but it should be no coincidence that at the same time we're seeing a massive downshift in the valuation of WeWork, investors are now questioning the valuations of the mo mo stocks. Valuations don't matter until they do.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

Adam Rowe nailed it in WSJ review of The Price of Time: “Suppressing the rate of interest is a powerful way to boost an economy otherwise bound for recession, but it’s a dangerous one. It is to finance what opiates are to medicine, a distortion of perception disguised as a cure.”

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

Wow

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

10 months

To think that the Dept of Energy could have started refilling the SPR this year at around an oil price of $70.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

For those only looking at lumber prices for their commodity analysis, the CRB raw industrials index yesterday closed at fresh 10 yr high. Components include burlap, copper scrap, cotton, hides, lead scrap, print cloth, rosin, rubber, steel scrap, tallow, tin, wool tops and zinc.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

With the help of Jay Powell who is seemingly afraid of his own shadow, maybe my long and arduous road of being a gold and silver bull might actually get easier from here.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 months

My son is graduating college today. Wow, bittersweet and time flies but "Time Stands Still" sang Rush. "I'm not looking back but I want to look around me now. Time stands still. See more of the people and the places that surround me now. Freeze this moment a little bit longer,

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

For those gold watchers such as myself, the net spec position in gold for the week ended Tuesday went NET short for the 1st time since December 2001 when gold was at about $275 an ounce.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

@DiMartinoBooth The most important thing to watch this earnings season will not be the income statement but the balance sheet to see who can ride this out and those that will need help or just can't.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

1 year

Just went thru UPS earnings call, they said, “In the US, relative to our base plan, volume was higher than we expected in Jan, close to our plan in Feb, & then moved significantly lower than our plan in March, as retail sales contracted & we saw a shift in consumer spending.”

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

1 year

The credit crunch continues as C&I loans outstanding for the week ended 6/7 fall to the lowest level since last September, down by $13b w/o/w, the biggest one week drop since the few weeks after SVB failed.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

Keep in mind that the .9% m/o/m core CPI inflation print is BEFORE any real influence from the rise in wages we're seeing. This is not so temporary.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

My friend David Rosenberg had an amazing line today in his BWD which I completely agree with and couldn't have said it any better. "Nothing is normal about normalizing an abnormal policy setting in the context of an abnormal economic recovery." @EconguyRosie

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 months

Yep

Geiger Capital

@Geiger_Capital

2 months

This is absolutely insane… This is Jared Bernstein. Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. He advises Biden on economic policy.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

Raising rates to a real rate of zero is not crazy. What's been crazy has been years of NIRP, ZIRP and trillions of QE. We will look back on this time and say WTF were they thinking.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

Being a gold bull (me) right now really does suck.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

The ultimate test:

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

If you like the Stones, this is a great story

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

3 years

Merry Clayton was getting ready for bed one night in 1969 when she got a last-minute invite to sing a backup track for a band called the @RollingStones . Hours later, “Gimme Shelter” was born. 🔥 Born today in 1948. (via @SongsPhilosophy ) @MickJagger

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

Just 'talking' out loud here but let's imagine that the virus is seasonal, spring/summer does calm it down & 1 of these therapies really do work, what are all these central banks going to do when it comes time to pull all this easing back? Be sure they overstay their welcome.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

7 years

Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda and Carney should walk into a Walmart and explain to those living paycheck to paycheck why higher inflation is good.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

If there is one market moving behavior of note here it is the continued compression in the yield curve. The 3 month/10 yr spread is now down to just 3 bps vs 10 bps yesterday and 22 bps one week ago. The Fed spent 3 rate cuts trying to un-invert the curve. What now?

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 months

I'm afraid I might start hearing from some about inflation ex food, energy, shelter and insurance.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

1 year

This is the most over hyped Fed meeting I can remember and I actually think it could end up being a complete non event, notwithstanding all the drama, because either way, whether they hike 25 bps or not, the Fed for now is done raising rates.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

We have a sea change in the world of central banking in that after 20 years of trying to suppress rates, the BoJ now wants higher LT rates in order to save its banking system. A day after cutting its QE plans, their 10 yr JGB auction overnight was the worst since 2016.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 months

You're going to need a telescope to find a bear. In Investor's Intelligence updated survey, Bulls rose to 60.9 from 59.4 while Bears are down to just 14.5, the least since March 2018. I consider a 40 pt spread between the two as extreme and now we're at 46.4.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

3 years

Honeywell CEO on Friday's conference call: "inflation is taking hold. There's no doubt about it. We knew it. We see it, it's real"

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

The Fed should replace the word 'inflation' with 'cost of living' and then see how this analysis and conversation goes. I'd argue it would be quite different.

In hot job market, Fed still frets about low inflation

Despite a U.S. unemployment rate that has plumbed its lowest levels in nearly 50 years, Federal Reserve policymakers remain worried about excessively low inflation, a view that helps explain the...

www.reuters.com

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

The SPX is back to where it was in Oct when 2019 eps estimates were $165 and 2020 estimates were around $175. It sure seems easy how quick we got the SPX back to this 3000 level of last Oct but achieving those eps figures for years to come won't be imho.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

Fed is getting deeper into rate hike cycle, QT about to accelerate to $120b per Q, ECB soon to end QE. Short vol trade blows up, Turkey exposed for yrs of mismgmt, Argentinian peso plunges, Brazil called out and Italian bond mkt crashes in 2 weeks. I'm sensing a pattern here.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

In existing home sales data, the median home price at a record high of $310,600, up 11.4% y/o/y. Redfin said this Monday in a BN story: “Rapidly rising house prices are effectively canceling out the increased purchasing power that buyers are getting from lower interest rates.”

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

2 years

This same example goes for those who developed property in 2020, 2021 and took on construction debt at about a 3% interest expense that now needs robust rental growth when that loan is refinanced this year or next into a conventional mortgage loan to something above 7%.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

5 years

The level of delusion is quite amazing and scary. *DRAGHI SAYS NEGATIVE RATES VERY POSITIVE FORCE ON GROWTH

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

6 years

If anyone needed a reminder of the dangers in the European bond market as we get closer to the end of QE and NIRP and which happens to be the epitome of an epic bubble, look at what the Italian 2 yr yield has done in the past 3 trading days.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

I tweeted this Wed @neelkashkari . Powell is saying that 'forward guidance' is "powerful" stimulus. In fact, it's the exact opposite as telling us that rates will stay at 0 for 3 yrs creates no sense of urgency of acting now to do business, which is the whole point of stimulus.

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Peter Boockvar

@pboockvar

4 years

Did he really say this?