I have been working on my 2030 $TSLA price target. This is not investment advice; it is to illustrate how I am assessing the opportunity. I look at being directionally correct and NOT "precisely accurate/wrong". The model is not a based on bottoms-up calculation, rather, it uses
Instead of looking at $TSLA in 2020 let's look at 2021. I think they will make 900 K cars (500 k Fremont + 300K Shanghai + 100 K Berlin) + Semi + Roadster. FSD will be feature complete.
#TeslaSolar
roof and battery will also ramp.
@elonmusk
@Tesla
will rock in 2021๐
@chamath
Chamath, that is awesome! I made phenomenal % returns in 2020 as well-1700%. Next year I want to educate the underprivileged about power of compounding; teach saving/investing at the grass root level. In one generation most people can change their lives. U want to help ?
I drove FSD 12.5.1.5 today in multiple areas in Pleasanton and Livermore CA. I really did not experience what
@WholeMarsBlog
and others have been experiencing. It has improved and is more confident but nothing close to the improvement others have been discussing. It did many
what if at battery and powertrain investor day they announce theyโre licensing the skateboard
tesla batteries and powertrain + tesla software & supercharger access + autopilot
get all the updates and everything, and just build your own car on top of that platform
@vincent13031925
@Gfilche
@HyperChangeTV
I think Gali is being conservative and it is good. I see the revenue increasing close to 100% with deliveries increasing more than 100%, plus a model S&X refresh, plus scaling of energy business. Imagine what will happen to margins with FSD at 10 k & higher
@VivekGRamaswamy
This is one point I agree with u on. Depositor money in the bank, regardless of the amount, should be 100% secured/guaranteed for a reliable/trustworthy financial system. We need to make changes for FDIC and SIPC.
@amitisinvesting
As Ron Baron said - You cannot renege on a contract, that majority of shareholders approved, after he has delivered. Thatโs unethical.
I knew $TSLA would get here, but it has moved much faster than I expected. I think it will get to $1000 by June, after the battery day. Based on how $TSLA is moving, we could see $1000 faster than we all expect.
I had really good driving experience with
#FSDBeta
V11.3.6 today. 1) I am still getting used to the auto lane change on the highway. I was in the fast lane and Beta decided to change lanes and get into the slower lane. For a second I was confused and then I realized that there
@LimitingThe
Thanks Jordan! I guess thatโs why they could also take down the line in Fremont to upgrade it.
Hopefully this ramp continues and they get to target capacity sometime next year. They should be ramping the semi in 2025 as well and hopefully have ironed out all the issues with
@AndrewYang
What I donโt understand is that we spent 20 years there, spent $2 Trillion and we still have this situation. Afghan army has 300k solders. Taliban has 80-100k. What am I missing ?
@p_ferragu
I donโt think u will need 80 m more cars. With robo taxies, demand for car ownership will drop. Sales of cars will probably drop to 40 - 60 m. And TSLA may make 30 m, not 20m; remaining Mfg will make the balance. Who will survive is the key qs. Most will not
I m really beginning to enjoy the
#Genomics
community on X. There are some very smart and nice people here. I like to engage with those who are here to learn, share their experiences and also are willing to be wrong; thatโs my personality as well.
I have chosen to distance
My current portfolio: $TSLA, $SQ, $NVTA, $TDOC, $CRSP, $IPOE, $ARCT. Will make additional allocations to $TDOC, $CRSP & $IPOE in case there is a correction. I will decide what to do with ARCT after Phase 2 results. I plan to hold the rest for 5-10 years. Not investment advice.
Good interview with Reshma, $VRTX CEO. Two key points 1) Current cost of care, over the life time of a patient with severe SCD, is between $4-$6 million. Hence, the $2.2m price tag for a one time treatment is very competitive. 2) The transplant can currently be done at 9
AgingdocโญDavid Barzilai๐MD PhD MS MBA DipABLM๐ฉบ
While the biotech companies continue to hit 52 week lows, we are are about to achieve some of the biggest breakthroughs/milestones in history:
1) Potential approval of first
#CRISPR
based โone & doneโ treatment in Dec for SCD $CRSP.
2) First in human data read out of
@BENBALLER
@POTUS
focuses on companies who have Unions only. It does not even matter if the EV is made in Mexico or the US. All that seems to matter is that they have a โunionโ. Really leadership seems to be irrelevant ๐๐คฏ๐ก.
I have attached my notes from the $SANA JPM call earlier this week. I am very optimistic about HIP working in T1D as well. 2024 could be the beginning of transformation for $SANA, though we will have to be patient and wait until 2028-29 for commercial success. I don't see a
I have developed a long term $CRSP forecast for my own investment. It is based on a number of assumptions which may or may not be accurate. Over time I will change the forecast, if the assumptions do not pan out. The appreciation, by 2032, ranges from 5x in the bear case to 57x
Some additional information on $CRSP CAR-Ts from CITI conference, that you may find beneficial:
The biggest issue with Gen 1 CAR-Ts was exhaustion. While the cells persisted for a month they were getting exhausted by day 14. They needed to increase potency and reduce exhaustion
2024 is the year of reckoning for at least two companies in my
#Genomics
portfolio:
1) $CRSP - Data from CTX-131 will tell us whether CRSP has cracked the code in solid tumors. This will be first of its kind and could become the platform for a number of other solid tumor
Update from Needham Healthcare Conference April 10, 2024
This $CRSP update was more holistic and covered SCD, Immuno Oncology, Auto-Immune and Cardiovascular in-vivo Initiatives. Documenting these calls helps me better understand the science and the competitive landscape.
$CRSP
1/ A number of you want to learn investing and I am excited to share my experience with you. This will include the mistakes I made, lessons learnt, my investing framework (which is fairly simple), my investments, what I am exploring, who I follow and what I read/listen to.
@MarceloPLima
@SawyerMerritt
I have friends who think that $TSLA has peaked and competition will destroy them. Now I simply listen and donโt push back. We will discuss in 2030.
@timesofindia
Shame on them, for living in the medieval times!! We need to cherish and encourage our achievements, so that the future is better than the present and the past! There is absolutely NO room for racism/casteism!!
@BTCGandalf
I was speaking to my UPS driver and found out that he owns two coins which his nephew bought for him 10 years bk. Probably paid $200/coin. Told him about the potential and that he should learn more about it and keep it securely. ๐
@NavalismHQ
@naval
I am a slow reader. Audible is the best thing that happened to me. I listen/read more books in a month, than I did in years before I found audible.
@ValueAnalyst1
I have spent time thinking about this. On auto volume alone we could get to an EPS of ~$18 by q4 2022. Applying simple 50% growth for 2023, we get to ~ $27 EPS. Apply a forward 100x PE, we get to 2700. This is without FSD, growth in energy, insurance etc.
We, sometimes, forget that the purpose of โtechโ in biotech is to build drugs and cure patients. While $CRSP has been put down as a โGen 1โ company, it is 100% focused on moving fast (safely) and curing patients. Even if they can address only 5-10% of the diseases, the TAM is
I do not think I have spent more time documenting any other update as I have done for this $VERV update by
@skathire
at Goldman Sachs 45th Annual Global Healthcare Conference. It took longer because there were a lot of technical details and I wanted to understand/capture all.
$CRBU CB010 may be the first allo CAR-T to get approved. They will potentially start a phase 3 by YE 2024. 6 month CR rate is better than auto CAR-Ts.
They are definitely ahead of $CRSP which yet has to share data for 112 and has cancelled 110. Ahead of $SANA SC 291 and ahead
Investing in
#GENOMIC
companies is not for the faint of heart. $CRSP gets a historic approval in UK and the stock flatlines ๐. We will look back in 5-10 years and have a good laugh. Cheers and congrats to the
#CRISPR
community ๐ฅ
@SawyerMerritt
This was achieved in midst of crazy supply chain shortages. Imagine what can be achieved in Q4 & 2022!! Price increases from q2 should help the bottom line in this quarter & the next; operating leverage should also be kicking in. Automotive gross margins should hit ATH ๐คฏ๐คฏ๐คฏ๐ฅ๐พ
Some of my worst decisions have been 1) investing in pre-clinical stage companies when the cost of money was near zero 2) not selling $TSLA $SQ & $NVTA LEAPs in early 2021 or 2022 and converting the proceeds into shares 3) using LEAPs in
#Genomics
when there were no significant
I picked up 16,500 $TSLA shares. Go shopping when there is blood on the street. $TSLA Energy is also at an inflection point. Waiting for it to get to $100 now.
The data in the PR for $IPSC is definitely beyond what I was expecting:
1) The immune evasion edits, potentially, are successful. Dose 3 & 4 were given without LD.
2) CR was achieved with their lowest dose and has persisted for 5 months, for a patient who has already received 4
Steve Harr, CEO of $SANA, had mentioned in the past that when it comes to autoimmune it will not be "first to market" but "first to scale" that will be important. According to Steve, with 100 manufacturing runs of autologous CAR-T you will, at best, treat 100 patients. With 100
If you are a $CRSP investor, this BoA call is a must listen:
It is one of the better calls and the analyst asks all the right questions. Very good discussion on the business in general and the "next gen edits" in CTX112 and CTX131.
The secret behind Autopilot is deep learning
itโs relatively young and advancing fast.
Understanding its growth is the key to understanding why Autopilot will exceed everyoneโs expectations.
@_TeslaTom
@thirdrowtesla
@Tesla
@elonmusk
I have
#Model3
,
#TeslaSolar
and just ordered
#PowerWall
. Becoming fully Grid independent. I have sleep Apnea & with increasing California power outages, I cannot afford to have my CPAP machine shut off while asleep. My Life is more valuable, (I think) than $15+ K I will spend ๐
Three slides from $SANA corporate deck that tell the story regarding the autoimmune opportunity: 1) TAM is large and spans 70 different diseases 2) B cell depletion appears to re-set the immune system within 3 months 3) $SANA SC291 is a effective in depleting B cells, though we
My current portfolio:
#1
) $TSLA,
#2
) $ARKG, $ARKW & $ARKK,
#3
) $NVTA, $TWST, $DNA,
#4
) $CRSP, $ARCT, $BEAM, $NTLA. Increased my exposure to Genomics. I will decide long term plan of ARCT after EUA results. I plan to hold the rest for 5+ years. Not investment advice.
@HeartDocTesla
Right way to do it. Go to the OptionAlpha site, they have some great videos on basic options stuff. I recommend understanding Calls, LEAPS, the Greeks. Separately there are videos on Vega and Theta, both are important. I keep my options execution very simple by Buying LEAPS only
@unusual_whales
Find great compounders and hold them for decades. Read and follow Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch. Wealth is created over decades of compounding not โtradingโ.
@garyblack00
I have lost millions because of that damn move. Then again I made a lot because of
@elonmusk
This is like his stance on BTC and Doge in 2021. It takes a lot to be a $TSLA bull coz Elon tests everyoneโs conviction/patience. I am still a long term bull. Elon is Elon.
@TeslaAndDoge
Same people will also say the same thing - you got โluckyโ when $TSLA hits 10k in a few years. I have come to realize that most people are lazy & do not want to do the hard work; they do not want research/learn to build conviction. Everything is available except the โwillโ
If u donโt believe that: 1) self driving will be solved, 2) AI is real, 3) humanoid robots are only a few years away from being deployed, 4) gene editing will soon cure many diseases, 5) Bitcoin will only get stronger, u will miss out on some of the most significant transitions
$CRSP Casgevy update by $VRTX, Q2 2024:
They had 12 centers activated in Feb 2024. That # has increased to 35 by mid July. They could potentially activate ~60 by YE 2024, and activate the targeted 75 by H1 2025. This will kick start the flywheel of increasing # of patients being
@KoguanLeo
I am also one of those bulls who believes that the range could be between 1.8-2 m, depending on when Berlin starts production. I still like the sand bagging, though
$CRSP update by
@CrisprSam
at Bank of America Conference, May 15 2024
Over all a good update. Some key points:
Next 12-18 months will be catalyst rich with data read out from a number of programs:
1) They will share data from the SLE program by YE 2024.
2) Collecting data
Here is the current allocation of my
#Genomics
portfolio. I have been taking advantage of the market conditions to DCA. I exited $MP and $SNOW and re-deployed the capital. I am pretty happy with the over all structure/composition. I am at my maximum allocation in most of the
Another golden nugget form the BoA $SANA call regarding in-vivo delivery. I had thought of this when they decided to focus on HIP. This is me reading the tea leaves - imo $SANA may be gearing up to partner with some company for SCD in-vivo delivery. The partner will need deep