42 Macro is an online investment research provider specializing in macro risk management through the dual lens of asset allocation and portfolio construction.
Our mission at 42 Macro is to help investors consistently make money and protect gains in financial markets. Many of the worldโs most successful investors agree the best way to accomplish that goal is by infusing systematic elements into their research and risk management
#Team42
, we are excited to announce our Macro Bundle Q&A Live lineup for February 2022. Mark your ๐ every Wednesday at 11am ET.
Many thanks to our guests
@TgMacro
,
@verdadcap
,
@options_insight
and
@dampedspring
for sharing your insights with us. ๐ฅ๐๐ฐ
Why is the stock market ripping?
#Team42
, we joined Real Visionโs
@RaoulGMI
and
@maggielake
last week to discuss
#Liquidity
,
#Debt
Monetization,
#Recession
, & more.
In case you missed it, here are seven highlights from what many are calling โthe best RV Daily Briefing yetโ:
All ๐ on the
#Phase2
Credit Cycle downturn ๐ in 2H23.
Until then, asset markets will continue to ping pong between pricing in the
#Phase1
Liquidity Cycle downturn (๐งฒ = $SPX ~3800 &
#BTC
~$20k) and our transitory GOLDILOCKS theme (๐งฒ = $SPX ~4200 &
#BTC
~$30k).
Best of luck!
The much-anticipated two-part interview with Wealthion
@wealthion
founder Adam Taggart
@menlobear
is out now. Be sure to watch on YouTube for all the incredible charts!
Thanks in advance for subscribing to
@42Macro
because we know you will after watching this amazing content.
#Team42
, asset markets are pricing in our Bull Case scenario as if it is the modal outcome. It is not.
We expect a pullback to ~4,000 post OPEX. After that, we will humbly and patiently wait for more data to position for a push to 4,400 or a breakdown to 3,400.
#Team42
, mark your ๐๏ธ for 12PM ET today for our April 2024 Pro-to-Pro live discussion with David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors.
@DaveHcontrarian
#Team42
, mark your ๐ for 11am EST tomorrow for our weekly Macro Bundle Q&A LIVE. This week's guest is Cem Karsan
@jam_croissant
, CIO & Managing Principal of KAI Volatility Advisors. ๐ฐ
Looking forward to hearing Cem's views on how he's positioned going into OPEX and beyond.๐ฅ๐
What the July 4th Holiday means to us at 42 Macro -
#blessed
to be an American and
#blessed
to be part of the thoughtful, like-minded
#Team42
community.
God Bless
#Team42
and God Bless America! ๐
From today's Around the Horn weekly - โWith the S&P 500 nearing the lower boundary of its Probable Range and the DXY hovering just south of its Probable Range, the setup heading into next week is bullish for domestic and global REFLATION plays.โ - Darius Dale
Days like today you get to experience the power in our portfolio construction. Gold, commodities, energy โฌ๏ธand our pivot on Friday out of $QQQ, $GBTC, ...and... to $SLV, $CPER and ...
#process
As promised
#Team42
, here is the first (Introduction to the GRIDS) of many educational videos we have planned over the coming months. You can also reference them on our new YouTube channel โฌ๏ธ. Enjoy!
#Team42
, we're excited to host our friend Cam Karsan
@jam_croissant
, Founder & CIO of Kai Volatility this Wednesday, January 10, 2024 in our first Macro Pro-to-Pro Live discussion of 2024. Mark your ๐๏ธ for 12pm ET.
If you're not currently a Macro Strategist Pro subscriber but
Head fake or not, 42 of the worldโs most important market indicators on balance pivoted to DEFLATION on Tuesday. With a clear string of โDโsโ on the horizon for the US and Global economies, that is not something anyone on
#Team42
should pay us to disrespect.
Happy Friday
#Team42
!
Our
#42MacroWeather
Model indicates no change in signal at the component or composite level. To recap, it is generating:
๐ฉpositive 3โmonth outlook for
#Bonds
๐จneutral 3โmonth outlook for
#Commodities
๐ฅbearish 3โmonth outlook for
#Stocks
๐ฅbearish
#Team42
, mark your ๐ for July 12th (12pm-1pm EST).
All who are
#subs
at the end of day July 4th will be invited to join a live session (incl. Q&A) with
@42macroddale
where we will show you how to take
#Team42
macro research and turn it into actionable investment decisions.
#Team42
, here's the 2nd act of our two-part episode with
@Wealthion
founder Adam Taggart. Be sure to watch on YouTube for the incredible charts!
The Finance Podcast of the Year (to date). If you disagree, set up a debate โ for charity of course. Trust
What are you doing today at 5:30PM ET? Cancel it...
@RaoulGMI
is going LIVE on RV
#YouTube
for an Ask Me Anything!
Submit your questions during the AMA and we'll be sure to send them to him.
Join ๐
Putting this to rest for
#Team42
.
@42macroddale
...
1. Did not have a non-compete with
@hedgeye
.
2. His work here is his own.
3. Has built different models with different processes arriving @ different outcomes.
Now back to the business of why we're all here. ๐ค๐ง
#Team42
, today's Leadoff Morning Note may be the best research note we have ever published. ๐ฐ
Leadoff Morning Note and Macro Bundle
#subscribers
, enjoy!
Non-subscribers, you know what to do. . ๐
#Team42
, for those of you still watching from the cheap seats and interested in a better view, here's a link to a FREE TRIAL so can check us out. Enjoy! ๐๐
Callout from this weekend's Around the Horn weekly - "Canadian Dollar $FXC and Gold $GLD would've been overbought, but each is now signaling bullish from a VAMS perspective, which widens the Probable Range to the upside." - Darius Dale
#Bitcoin
is bearish but surprisingly flashing a bullish divergence in volatility. Assuming price stays broken, a breakdown in 10-day realized vol (which is + correlated to price) < 60 would cement this as the start of a lasting โbear cycleโ for the crypto asset class. ๐like a ๐ฆ
@42macro
a
@42macro
as a subscriber i dont understand this, where are the crowded longs -top blue long bars or red bottom bars ? where can i get more understanding of how to read this
Before anyone jumps to conclusions
@mablum
, please read Darius'
@42macroddale
Opposition here
and the Declaration of Darius Dale filed on May 3, 2021 here
The amount of data, detail and transparency
#Team42
gets every week updated in the Around the Horn is ๐คฏ.
This ๐ฝ is just 1 of 33 tabs from our bottom-up Macro Regime and top-down Market Regime data spreadsheet that accompanies every Around the Horn weekly slide deck and video.
#Team42
, this weekend marks a significant milestone in our short history here at 42 Macro. We are now serving clients in more than 75 countries throughout the world. ๐๐
A heartfelt thank you to all of you who are trusting us to be a part of their investment journey.
Callout from this weekend's Around the Horn - The biggest threat to REFLATION at the current juncture isnโt DEFLATION, but, rather GOLDILOCKSโwhich would be the catalyst for more obvious, more broad-based blow-off tops in stocks and commodities.
#Team42
, mark your ๐ for December 7th at 11am EST for our monthly Macro Bundle Q&A Live. Excited to catch up with our friend Cem Karsan
@jam_croissant
| CIO and Managing Principal of KAI Volatility Advisors. ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
One of the few that likely had a good Nov is our friend
@jam_croissant
over at Kai Volatility Advisors. While I believe it would be a stretch to imply โseasonalityโ caused the two ~5% melt ups (Oct CPI and Powell yesterday), right = right. Iโm excited to pick his brain next week!
Sorry no, there will be no 'Black Friday' or 'Cyber Monday' Specials
@42macro
.
We believe we have priced our research offering fairly and competitively for everyone to take advantage. We would not devalue the brand or the quality of our research by discounting it. ๐๐
#Team42
, here's some exciting news!
Beginning Monday, October 4th, we will start publishing a new product, the Macro Minute daily (M-F) on our 42 Macro YouTube channel for all subscribers to the channel.
From this morning's LMN-"Before you 'sell in May and go away', it's important to note that for most economies, July is the first month where global GROWTH data are likely to confirm a trending inflection lower off their respective cycle peaks."-Darius Dale
Prepare accordingly.
#Team42
, with our favorite U.S. Holiday coming up, we will be publishing a series of video excerpts for you to "get to know" your
#Team42Skipper
over the upcoming holiday weekend. Here is
#1
, also posted on our YouTube channel.
#Team42
, some more "Spring Training".
IVOL (Discount) / Premium = the percent change of its Implied Volatility to Realized Volatility.
Example, if a securityโs IVOL is 18%, and its Realized Volatility is 10%, then the security has an IVOL Premium of 80% (18% / 10% -1).
#Team42
, mark your ๐ for 11am ET today for our Macro Bundle Q&A LIVE. This week's guest is Joseph Wang |
@FedGuy12
The Fed Guy.
This discussion is going to be ๐ฅ!
#FedTools
From this morning's Leadoff Morning Note - "The coast is clear for now, but with DEFLATION looming as a high-probability Macro Regime for the World economy this summer, we think it pays to be selective with your geographic allocations from here." - Darius Dale
The increased proximity to DEFLATION from a bottom-up Macro Regime perspective and tapering from a ๐ต POLICY perspective are ๐ fundamental drivers today that investors did not have to consider @ each of the previous (๐ today's LMN) intervals โ hence why we remain on high alert.
#Team42
, don't miss this weekend's Around the Horn weekly. We saw a very important new signal this week suggesting the market environment is changing.
Winner winner...the longest daily winning streak since 1987 is in the books.
โข Q) What does 2023 have in common with 1987 from a fundamental perspective you ask?
A) A recession in corporate profits that was shrugged off by the market until it wasnโt.
โข Q) What does 2023
My recent Pro to Pro Live interview with our friend
@DaveHcontrarian
is now live.
You can watch it here:
We discussed our outlooks for asset markets, the 42 Macro Positioning Model, our "Green Shoots Globally" theme, and more.
Enjoy!
Our sincere apologies for the audio quality in this weekend's Around the Horn weekly. We considered re-shooting it, but with moving and logistics it was not possible to get this to you before Monday evening. In hindsight that may have been the better call. Sorry everyone.
Most
#WallSt
economists see US growth & inflation easing this year...
Not
@jam_croissant
. Instead, he believes fiscal stimulus will continue to give the U.S. economy a boost in the short term & thinks tighter monetary policy wonโt lower
#inflation
as quickly as the
#Fed
hopes.
42 Macro was created to be just that... A tool to allow you to look at portfolio construction like the big funds do. (But in a way that is actually useable to make fast decisions).
I also wanted to make sure that it was ridiculously affordable so that anyone can use it.
#Team42
โDeclarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.โ โ Daniel Kahneman ๐
#Team42
, mark your calendars for Wednesday, November 22nd 11:45am ET for our Macro Pro to Pro Live discussion with Andy Constan, CEO/CIO at Damped Spring Advisors
@dampedspring
.
We are really looking forward to catching up with Andy and seeing how he's positioning now (~3 weeks
#Team42
, we do not understand this
#Goldilocks
/
#Reflation
discussion. The Volatility Adjusted Momentum Signals
#VAMS
in our Global Macro Risk Matrix, which covers 42 of the most widely followed market indicators in the world are saying G&R are a very low probability event.
Good morning
#Team42
! No Leadoff Morning Note today. Per yesterday's note, planning to be offline completely today. Hoping yesterday's note was more than comprehensive enough to help get you through today.
Thanks in advance for affording some much-needed R&R. ๐
Callout from this morning's LMN - "The likelihood that US GROWTH surprises to the upside in May and June implies at least another ~6 weeks of REFLATION remaining the dominant Market Regime." Darius Dale
Best of luck out there today!
Thanks to
@RaoulGMI
and
@edwardnh
for the
@42macroddale
mention in Friday's "Daily Briefing"
@RealVision
. Great discussion on Raoul's "Exponential Age" network effect themes in Crypto, Copper, Carbons, Electrification and more. Widen your Macro aperture.
#Team42
Macro Bundle
#subs
, mark your ๐ 's for 11am ET tomorrow, December 7, 2022 for our monthly Macro Bundle Live Q&A. Our December guest is
@jam_croissant
Cem Karson | CIO and Managing Principal of KAI Volatility Advisors.
Super excited to catch up with Cem ๐ฅ tomorrow!
Call out from yesterdayโs Around the Horn weekly - โLooking ahead to next week, Tech $XLK is signaling buy, alongside Health Care $XLV. Both Europe $EZU and EM $EEM are signaling buy as well.โ - Darius Dale
#Team42
, mark your ๐ for July 12th (12pm-1pm ET).
@42macroddale
will be hosting a live session (w/Q&A) for
#subscribers
where we will walk you through how to use
#42Macro
's
Daily - Leadoff Morning Note
Weekly - Around the Horn
Monthly - Macro Scouting Report
Don't miss it!
#Team42
, as the ๐ flips to 2023, we are excited to announce a new way to engage with
#Team42
and Darius Dale.
Since
@42Macro
โs founding, our mission has been to bring the highest quality macro research to our subscribers in order to help them better risk manage their assets. /1
#Team42
, this afternoon's Pro-to-Pro Live rehearsal was so good (and timely given today's action) we're going to publish it for you gratis on our YouTube channel as soon as we can. Stay tuned...Enjoy!
#Team42
, this is well worth your time IMHO ๐ฝ.
@RaoulGMI
and
@RealVision
have been an incredible source of information for all things crypto and
#Bitcoin
related assets.
#Team42
, hope everyone is enjoying a restful Saturday. This weekend's Around the Horn will be in
#subscribers
inboxes within the hour.
Callout on $Bitcoin worth paying attention to.
"โBreathe, believe, and battle.' My former coach, Troy Tanner, told us that before each match. Breatheโbe in the moment. Believeโhave faith that you can rise above it. Battleโyou gotta be prepared to go for as long as it takes." - Kerri Walsh ๐
VAMS = Volatility Adjusted Momentum Signal
Bullish VAMS = (+)price momentum and vol in a regime that has generally mitigated drawdown risk
Bearish VAMS = (-)price momentum and vol in a regime that has generally amplified drawdown risk
Neutral VAMS = price and vol
#diverging
Happy Sunday
#Team42
! Callout from this weekend's Around the Horn ๐ฝ.
Don't miss the new methodology we have incorporated into our Portfolio Construction Process.
#VAPS
- Volatility Adjusted Position Sizing.
The speed of DEFLATIONโs rising probability from here is critically important to monitor given the July 12th OPEX catalyst that derivatives servant
@jam_croissant
highlighted for us yesterday in this thread.
โResearch shows that the best way to deal with negativity is to observe it, without reaction and without judgement. Then consciously label each negative feeling and replace it with positive, compassionate, and solution โ based thoughts.โ
- Christopher Voss and Tahl Raz ๐
#Team42
, this afternoon's Pro-to-Pro Live rehearsal was so good (and timely given today's action) we're going to publish it for you gratis on our YouTube channel as soon as we can. Stay tuned...Enjoy!
New feature for
#Team42
subscribers on . After logging in, you will be able to access all previously published content you are subscribed to. Go to "Log in" - โReportsโ. Brick by brick...