CollinRL @CollinRLwx Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

CollinRL

2 months

(1) Mathematics and Meteorology: The Divergence Theorem. The Divergence Theorem is a theorem from multivariate Calculus that describes the movement of a fluid in a Euclidean 3d space. The Divergence Theorem states that the outflow of a fluid in a restricted volume is

4

3

30

Last Seen Profiles

@AkanjiofafricaX

@BoogieHell

@sennikov_egor

@11intheMid

@Giga_Goblin

@GrandCanalHotel

@BZeimens

@Uomareyy_

@chadmoutray

@2hAqT15WIJsK2

@hcj66801say

@timetabless

@stw_pdg

@cyberpetryxx

@cukijilapepeena

@killu63

@yourferalboyfr

@elleoliver_

@PurposeBrand

@sleepingonsofa

@lu_ore_

@pianon111

@gixzsltvv9hot

@TruthScoutX

@stw_pdg

@AfricanHumanity

@hasenobuek9

@deR3WqSuN890387

@soobaniya

@SauaschM

@SMMousavi1979

@gayngar_

@ifyuzo

@HamzaLachkhab

@SkCare

@BroussarDaw

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

The Howard Franklin bridge over Tampa Bay is being battered by waves and gusts in the 50 mph range. I’ve gotta say…The amount of people out driving today is a little surprising to me. #flwx #tropics #TropicalStormDebby #wxtwitter

212

770

4K

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@DylanFedericoWX Nope. All the global models are way off. I guess we will have to watch and see what Beryl does real time. 👀🌀

0

1

59

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

12 days

Here is the 18z EPS. A decent uptick compared to previous runs. Waiting for the 00z model cycle to complete before I can confidently say that an uptrend is occurring. #Euro #GFS #tropics #hurricane

2

4

45

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Last view of #PTC4 before sunset. I’m going to say it at this point…It has that look. Outflow propagating outwards and curved banding with a burst of deep convection over the supposed LLC. Very warm SSTs ahead. All signs that TC genesis and strengthening should begin soon.

2

4

40

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

9 days

Looking like this NW GOM disturbance could steal the name 'Francine' as the Central Atlantic disturbance remains disorganized. The LLC is pretty well defined, and it appears to be moving off the coast of Texas and Lousisana again. Convection is displaced southeast of the main

1

5

40

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

17 days

A very-healthy looking #AEW will emerge from Africa soon. Models should have a better handle on it once it’s over open water. I’ll be watching!! #flwx #tropics #GFS #Euro

1

2

40

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@CC_StormWatch @nicos1205 “Multiple damaging tornadoes at the same time!!”. Strong wording in the tornado warning. 👀🌪️

0

7

38

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

11 days

18z Euro ensembles are more numerous and south of the 12z. Still a wide ensemble spread. I will continue to watch. Just started my fall classes at USF, so it’s hard to spend a whole lot of time on here. I’ll write an analysis for you all tomorrow. #GFS #Euro #hurricane

3

4

37

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@Sky_WatchersWx Stratus ☁️

0

36

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

12 days

The NHC now gives 40% odds for a tropical system to develop over the next 7 days. Model support has increased overnight which is why odds have increased. Still a lot of uncertainty to sort out (dry air, steering) before we know where this is going. #flwx #tropics #wxtwitter

0

2

35

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@tridence @CommunityNotes

0

35

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

12 days

Lots of deep convection firing in the Gulf today. Some model scenarios show a low pressure forming out of this. Would be weak if so. #GFS #Euro What’s more intriguing is how it will affect the steering over the next several days, depending on if it sticks around. Disturbance 2

1

3

34

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

15 days

The 12z #GFS and #Euro ensembles still maintain a signal for an #AEW to develop in 7-10 days in the western MDR. SAL and degree of monsoon trough interaction will determine the future of this disturbance. #tropics #hurricane

1

2

32

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

13 days

The 00z Icon model drops the monsoon trough disturbance and develops the next wave right after it exits Africa. Waiting for the #GFS and # #Euro models now. #flwx #tropics #hurricane

2

0

31

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

10 days

Just reached the 1,000-follower mark! Thanks all for your continued support. I am a mathematics major at USF in my junior year, and I am fascinated by weather. I plan to earn my BA in mathematics and my MS in Meteorology. Here is a face reveal since my profile pic is a

8

2

28

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

#PTC4 forms an LLC under Cuba and makes a wider turn into the Gulf on the 12z #Euro AIFS. This would increase the chance for hurricane strength. A weak trough increases the chance that a stall or westward jog occurs (Big Bend or panhandle). If the trough is stronger or lasts

2

4

29

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Models are still split on the possibility of an #AEW developing in 7+ days. The 12z #Euro (1) has greater ensemble support compared to the 00z model run (2). Unsurprisingly, the #GEM model has also jumped on board showing a tightening vort max in 7 days. However, both the

1

27

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

29 days

The 00z #GFS is very strange...Now it develops 2 tropical systems out of the same #AEW at 96 hours? Something is amidst... #flwx #tropics #PTC5

4

0

28

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

20 days

(1) Lots of debate regarding what will happen this hurricane season. My personal take is inspired by a conversation that I had with a former NWS meteorologist a week or so ago. There is a difference between ‘modelology’ and ‘meteorology’. Modelology is basically taking global

1

5

28

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Tropical Storm #Debby has that look…I said it yesterday and I will say it again. Banding and cirrus propagating outward in all quadrants, and convection erupting in the center of Debby in the last frames.. Now we watch real-time. #tropics #flwx #wxtwitter

3

0

27

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

The 12z GFS attempts to develop a disturbance centered at ~47 degrees west. It’s currently generating weak convection likely due to Saharan dust. It seems like the GFS develops the disturbance because of its mountain vorticity bias. A piece of vorticity comes off Hispaniola and

1

4

27

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

16 days

Models are starting to like the #AEW that is about to exit Africa. 12z Icon, 00z GEFS, and 00z EPS showing signs of activity. #flwx #tropics #GFS #Euro

1

2

27

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

10 days

12z EPS is very active today. Wouldn’t be surprised if the NHC increases odds to >60% by the end of tomorrow. Still a huge ensemble spread and development is not guaranteed. #GFS #Euro #hurricane #tropics

1

26

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

13 days

12z Euro today (top) vs 12z #Euro yesterday (bottom). Global models have downtrended in development of the disturbance in the monsoon trough since yesterday. SAL and stable air have been and will continue be obstacles. These factors may very well prevent this system from

1

0

26

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

10 days

(1) Lots of uncertainty regarding the development of Disturbance 2 in the Central Atlantic. ASCAT shows a small piece of the monsoon trough trying to consolidate at ~47 degrees west. However, that pass didn’t capture the eastern side of the monsoon trough which some models show

1

3

23

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Just reached the 500 follower mark as of today! We did it y’all. For those of you who have just followed, here is a formal introduction from me: My name is Collin. I’m 20 years old and a junior at the University of South Florida. My major is in mathematics. My goal is to earn a

0

1

23

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Hurricane Beryl continues to maintain strength despite looking ragged in appearance. The National Hurricane Center still maintains 145 mph strength as of 11 am EDT. New recon data is out showing maximum surface winds of around 110 knots. Let’s hope this weakening trend

0

2

19

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Breaking: We now have Hurricane Debby as of 11 pm EDT. Hurricane Debby has max winds sustained at 75 mph. Landfall will likely occur tomorrow morning. #TropicalStormDebby #flwx #tropics #wxtwityer

1

9

20

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

We’ve officially hit 100 members as of 11:55 pm EDT! Welcome new members! Please feel free to post an introduction about yourselves in the group!! #tropics #flwx #wxtwitter

5

1

20

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

8 days

Here is a look at the Atlantic AOI. Really starting to think that this disturbance has a better chance of 'fizzling out" than becoming a named storm. It is convectively anemic, and models have gradually trended weaker overall. I will continue to watch, though, since I know that

2

27

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Here is where the fork in the road begins for #Invest97l . A deep convective burst has initiated just to the northwest of the Tiberon Peninsula in Haiti. Does this burst persist for long enough to initiate a center reformation south of Cuba? That remains to be seen. #flwx

1

3

19

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Bombs away! Tropical Depression Gaemi appears to have dropped some nukes over the W PAC today. -90 degree cloud tops 🥶. This is the one that the GFS showed reaching 918 mb before landfall in China. #wxtwitter #flwx #tropics

2

19

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

A great take right here. As we saw with Beryl and Debby, models change a lot when there is time and other factors. Even with the long wave trough feature, there is a chance that 98L could miss the trough and track much closer to the U.S. Hurricane Irma was a different storm

FLWX_TropicalTracker_✝️

@flimpct

1 month

Not trying to be a hypist or alarmist... I am just going off of history. Looked at the last 20 seasons for the #Atlantic of developing systems that go on to become hurricanes around the #LesserAntilles in the second week of #August . What I've noticed is that there aren't many

5

37

2

7

19

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

14 days

Models are really picking up on the wave located in the eastern MDR. 12z #Icon and #Euro models show a tropical storm in 7 days. #flwx #tropics #hurricane

0

2

18

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

17 days

(1) The ‘dry wave’ is bubbling up convection as it nears the Bahamas. Also notice the stationary front being pinched off by a building ridge of high pressure. This will be our next area to watch for tropical development in the Gulf…(next thread). Credit to tropical tidbits for

2

0

18

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@Wx_Intercepts I wouldn’t say that yet…Lots of dry air to overcome though.

Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.

@SteveWAFB

2 months

The GRAF model continues to show #Beryl rapidly organizing Sunday into Monday upon approach to Texas. It's also on the northern end of our current guidance envelope, so those near Houston should still watch closely. GRAF has often done well w/ tropical systems in recent years.

41

403

2K

1

18

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

The 00z #Euro has backed off considerably in developing the #AEW near the Cabo Verde islands. 00z (left) only has weak ensemble support whereas the 12z (right) from yesterday had more than half of its ensemble members supporting tropical development. Still lots of uncertainty

0

3

17

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

3 months

Breaking: We now have #Invest95l in the Main Development Region (MDR). 95L is expected to track westward toward the Windward islands. Interests in those areas should closely monitor the progress of 95l. Below is the 12z Euro ensembles. #tropics #wx #TwitterWx

2

0

17

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@isabelle_wts “Followed by HAARP”. Now we know lol

1

17

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

29 days

#Invest98L is now 80% in 48 hours and 90% in 7 days. Global models agree on a potential storm affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and possibly the Dominican Republic. A turn out to sea after the islands is the most likely solution for now. #flwx #tropics #wxtwitter

1

6

17

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

12z models are in. #Euro , #GFS , #Icon , and #CMC all show some form of tropical development in the next 7 days. Current satellite imagery shows an area of disturbed weather in the ITCZ and an #AEW being choked out by Saharan dust for the time being. However, vorticity from the

1

2

17

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Here’s a look at the #AEW from the GOES 16 IR satellite. Convection has fired up as expected, due to the injection of vorticity from the ITCZ and entering less upper-level subsidence. Now we watch and see where organization of this disturbance takes place. What’s interesting

1

0

16

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

11 days

Here is the 12z EPS. Slight uptick compared to 06z and 00z model runs. Lots of uncertainty regarding track and intensity, if anything develops at all. #GFS #Euro #hurricane #tropics

1

2

15

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Model shenanigans: The 06z GFS model develops a tropical wave in 7+ days. Normally, I would not share a model run simulated past 168 hours; but there is a point to be made here. The GFS has an issue with over-amplifying mountain vorticity in warm tropical waters. What happens

2

1

15

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Gulf coast major hurricane landfalls since 2017. Have you all been through at least one of these storms? #wxtwitter #tropics #flwx

0

1

15

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Hurricane Beryl is now a Category 3 MAJOR hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph. A pinhole eye feature has formed overnight indicating that rapid intensification has occurred. The bad news is that storms of small size tend to continue rapid intensification. A Category 4 or

2

15

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@wxwithpeyton I see nothing wrong with @DaDaBuh ‘s post, with all due respect. He says it’s 1 run and there is uncertainty.

0

15

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

It appears that Debby is on the cusp of hurricane strength (985 mb). Vortical hot towers are firing all around the center with vigorous convection feeding into the circulation. Be ready Florida. #TropicalStormDebby #tropics #flwx #wxtwitter

2

14

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

3 months

Could a new center form farther north of the current center of circulation? Looks like some vort maxes are competing for dominance. 12z GFS shows a northern piece of vorticity. 👀🌀 #wx #ptc1 #texas

2

1

13

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

18 days

Here is the full time lapse of Hurricane Debby from when she started out as a dry wave to her final advisory (Zoom Earth). #flwx #tropics #wxtwitter #hurricane

1

14

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

The African wave train seems a tad bit more active than last week. Still lots of sinking air present in the NATL as a whole. Rising air arrives the 1st week of August according to the CHI 200 40 day forecast. #wxtwitter #flwx #tropics

0

3

13

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

@Tuesday_Tells Thanks. My bad 👍😅

1

0

13

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

24 days

Interesting stuff going on in the Central Pacific while Ernesto threatens Bermuda. Now 3 areas are being monitored for tropical development east of Hawaii. A monsoon trough may break down into several distinct pieces, in similar manner to what we saw last year in the MDR.

0

1

13

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

3 months

@DylanFedericoWX I am! The 00z GFS goes nuts. My guess is the Euro shows nothing but a struggling disturbance. 👀🌀

1

0

13

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

25 days

(1) As Hurricane #Ernesto approaches Bermuda, there may be another system that bears watching in the Central Pacific. The CPHC is monitoring a disturbance (60%) not too far from Hawaii…(Next thread) #flwx #tropics #wxtwitter

1

2

13

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@DariusJohnsonTV @cbschicago Multiple tornadoes on the ground near Chicago. 👀🌪️

0

2

12

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

(1) Here’s a storm that comes to mind when I think of weak steering currents and location. Hurricane Elena (1985) was, to be frank, a forecaster’s nightmare. Hurricane Elena was initially supposed to make landfall in SE Louisiana after emerging from Cuba…(see next thread)

2

1

13

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

#Tropics : The #Euro and #GFS model ensembles have picked up on a #AEW just now emerging from Africa. The signal is weak at the moment. However, as we saw with #Beryl , models can change rather quickly. It generally takes between 10 and 14 days for a disturbance to reach the

0

2

13

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

20 days

Here is the new Global Tropics Hazards Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. Notice the high risk area on the western half of the MDR (>60%). Things will get busy soon as we approach peak season. #flwx #hurricane #wxtwitter #tropics

0

2

13

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Seems like the little surface low north of Cuba is being rotated westward around the competing vorticity south of Cuba. Maybe some wobbles west or east we need to watch for? The 12z #GFS seems to pick up on this in the very short term. Credit to Dr. Levi Cowan, tropical

1

0

12

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

How #wxtwitter sees the models behaving right now. #flwx #tropics #gfs #euro

1

3

11

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

(1) Here is a storm that comes to mind when I think of weak steering currents. Hurricane Elena (1985) was a forecaster’s nightmare. Hurricane Elena was initially supposed to make landfall in SE Louisiana after emerging from Cuba…(see next thread) #flwx #tropics #wxtwitter

1

5

12

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

10 days

(2) Overall track will depend on the progress of 2 areas of distributed weather (yellow), approaching fronts (blue), and rate of development (pink =fast, green= slow based on GEFS and EPS). Some models (Icon, eps) try to develop the area in the Gulf into a tropical depression

1

12

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

21 days

(1) Our focus now shifts to the Central Pacific as a favorable MJO and CCKW passes through the region. What’s interesting about this event is the potential for a rare Hawaii hurricane (GFS model). The last hurricane to pass very near to Hawaii was Hurricane Douglas

1

0

12

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Now looking at the 12z GFS. The 12z (left) shows a stronger vort max developing quicker than on the 06z model run (right). This is likely why the run later shows a track much closer to the Florida peninsula. Small differences like this can make all the difference when

0

1

12

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Got to experience a wicked storm on my way home from fishing. I was caught off guard on my e scooter. Luckily, I made it home unscathed. Land O’ Lakes, Pasco County, FL. @DenisPhillipsWx @tropicalupdate @NbergWX @WeatherProf @NWSTampaBay

2

3

12

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@isabelle_wts Some people have been accusing others (including Meteorologists) of hype all week. No one mentions this guy? He’s 200% hype lol.

1

0

11

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Hurricane Beryl continues to defy all odds. Beryl is still a Category 3 major hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph and pressures of 971 millibars. It even appears that she is trying to clear an eye again. Wobbles north put Beryl north of the model guidance. This could have

2

1

10

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

15 days

Here is Hurricane Hone as it swiftly moves away from its closest point to the Hawaiian ‘big island’. Hone intensified into a 85 mph Category 1 hurricane overnight. #flwx #GFS #Euro #tropics #hurricane

0

4

11

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

10 days

@FloridaTropics1 Butterflies and unicorns? Lol. Hurricane season is getting active and you are just informing people. Keeping everyone informed before the fact is much better than saying nothing right before.

0

11

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

29 days

@Emanuel072999 Yeah, I've noticed that. This reminds me a lot of Hurricane Fiona 2022, where easterly low-level shear (fast trades) misaligned the vortex until Fiona slowed down before Puerto Rico.

0

11

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

3 months

@BackpirchCrew Looks like a strong burst of convection is occurring in the LLC of 92L. Should help with organization. 👀🌀

0

1

11

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Lots of talk of #Invest98L going OTS or being a ‘fish storm’. Here is a good analog from 2021, in which a fish storm became a threat to the U.S. Hurricane Henri developed out of a non-tropical low a couple hundred miles east of Bermuda. Early models showed a track out to sea

3

0

11

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

The HAFS-A wants to turn Tropical Storm Gaemi into a large Super Typhoon. 887 mb at 60 hours. Interests in Okinawa, Taiwan, and surrounding islands should watch closely. #wxtwitter #tropics #flwx

1

3

11

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

3 months

@FloridaTropics1 It seems that global models have downtrended a lot. Lots of dry air and fast trades inhibit development on the 12z model cycle. Vorticity needs to tighten fast if it has a chance.

0

2

10

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Here’s the waterspout that prompted the tornado warning. This was taken from a live cam near Madeira Beach, Florida! #flwx #tropicalstormdebbie #tropics #wxtwitter

1

0

11

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@DylanFedericoWX You were not hyping when you compared this season to 2005. I was born in 2004 and haven’t seen a storm look as healthy as TD 2 in the month of June.

3

0

11

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

#PTC4 is now a tropical depression as of 10:30 EDT. The LLC has formed south of Cuba over open water. This will likely have implications on track and intensity down the road. My thoughts on landfall: Big bend from Apalachicola to Cedar Key. #flwx #wxtwitter #tropics

1

2

10

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

This is a good observation. The windshield wiper effect at its finest! No one should be predicting a landfall location a week out in advance. #invest95l #tropics #flwx

FLWX_TropicalTracker_✝️

@flimpct

2 months

#ECMWF ensembles inching further north... and then the second signal 👀 Hurricane looking more and more possible for future #Beryl and #TD2 . #Tropics #FLWX #CentralFLWX 🌀✝️📡

3

5

65

0

1

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

26 days

Some impressive wave heights are forecast by the 18z Euro today. I’d stay off the beach unless you are @DaDaBuh . He’s experienced and knows the ocean pretty well. 👀🌊🌀🌀 #flwx #tropics #wxtwitter

1

10

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Just going over some of the recon data. The dropsonde in the northwest eye wall recorded 132 knots at the surface. That’s roughly 152 mph. Also seeing a hot ring of convection firing around the eye now that the eye wall replacement cycle has completed. Fingers crossed that Beryl

1

3

10

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Here’s a view of Tropical Storm Debby from my neighborhood. Land O’Lakes, Florida. 👀🌀 #Debby #flwx #tropics #wxtwitter

3

5

10

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

(1) Now that #PTC4 has been designated, let’s go over the NHC discussion. It was noted that the environment over the Gulf of Mexico is “quite favorable ” with “light shear and warm sea surface temps” ahead of the system; and so a “subsequent steady strengthening” is

1

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Conditions on the Howard Frankland Bridge over Tampa Bay are still hazardous. 50 mph gusts and waves breaching the side barrier. Yet people continue to drive as if nothing is going on. Be careful out there. #TropicalStornDebby #flwx #wxtwitter #tropicsn

0

3

10

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

CSU has just released their updated hurricane season forecast. 23 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. #tropics This forecast is only slightly lower than the original, which had 25 total named storms forecasted. #hurricanedebbie Credits to Fox Weather for

2

10

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Tropical Storm #Debby was found to have a minimum central pressure of 994 mb in the latest pass. Convection is tightly wrapping around the LLC which has reformed NE due to the recent convective bursts (down-shear reformation). Will we have Hurricane Debby in the next several

1

0

10

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

Just going over some of the 18z and 12z deterministic model runs today. One interesting trend that I’ve noticed is that the Euro AIFS has been insistent on the #AEW missing the front and getting trapped under a strong ridge of high pressure. The GFS also has the same idea of a

2

0

10

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

@PapaforDandL I agree

0

1

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Hurricane Beryl is slowly weakening due to increasing vertical wind shear. Despite this, she continues to maintain strong Category 4 status with winds of 155 mph, and pressures as low as 943 millibars. Beryl’s core looks less robust than it did earlier today. A small tight ring

1

0

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

The 12z #Euro ensembles don’t agree on an OTS-east coast track anymore. Anywhere from SE Louisiana to the Carolinas should closely pay attention. What’s especially concerning is the amount of members that stall near or over Florida. #flwx #tropics #wxtwitter

2

0

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

3 months

@FloridaTropics1 Honestly it’s not looking all that bad. Has a decent vort signature. Maybe a sneaky one we need to watch?

1

0

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

@WxPatel Pretty much everywhere east of the continental divide except the Sonoran desert . They can just say that. 👀⛈️🌵

0

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

16 days

The African wave train is very active as it should be for the time of year. One problem, as several others have mentioned on here, is the northern displacement of the ITCZ, and the steering of AEWs into hostile conditions north of the Cabo Verde islands. This may change

0

2

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

I’ve been so caught up with Hurricane Beryl that I forgot about newly designated Invest 96L. Invest 96L may bear watching as a ridge of high pressure centered over the southern U.S. could weaken eventually. Florida and the Gulf states should monitor 96L. #HurricaneBeryl

0

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Tropical Storm Beryl is really getting her act together. Satellite imagery shows a mid latitude trough coming off the Rockies into the central Plains. This is what will steer Beryl into SE Texas. Outflow will also improve aiding rapid intensification. Credits to Zoom Earth for

1

4

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

2 months

Hurricane Beryl is relentless. Her continued strength will have implications on track and intensity down the road. #HurricaneBeryl #Texas #Beryl

Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 months

Eye showing up in visible imagery now, and definitely north of all the 6z EPS tracks #Beryl

7

55

323

0

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

30 days

@HurricaneAddict This is why no one should be confident in saying ‘OTS’ or ‘fish storm’. Lots can change.

1

9

CollinRL

@CollinRLwx

1 month

The #AEW now has a 60% chance of developing as of 8 am EDT. If we take a look at the #GFS and #Euro ensemble models, we’ll see that the ensemble members (individual tracks) that recurve are ones with bright colors indicating a strong system. Conversely, the members with dark

0

2

9