So I have launched my patreon page. It will have discussion/videos most days, not every day. Particularly during winter storms/tropical systems. Hopefully it is enjoyable and affordable. Thanks!
A sad day for me and my family. My mom went to be with the Lord last night after battling stage 4 cancer for a few weeks. The Lord is good and prayers for me and my family are appreciated. Thanks.
1) Here are the latest model landfall points. Now very clustered from Bradenton to Sarasota. With
#Milton
weakening, I am going for a category 3 storm 115-125 mph landfall remaining near Longboat Key, FL. Still have to be wary of wobbles, but the cluster is obvious.
So here is the 18z/12z model points for
#Milton
I zoomed in a bit. I have shifted my landfall point slightly south to Bradenton Beach. Still several models in Tampa Bay, but big cluster just south of Tampa Bay.
Beyond the storm the 12z GFS shows 3 major cold shots into the US, especially the central US over the next 2 weeks. This isnt necessarily fantasy either.
The latest 00z/06z landfall points for
#Milton
The 6z ECMWF/6z ICON/00z EPS mean are still further N near Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg The other guidance is clustered from Bradenton to Venice. I am shifting slightly south to Longboat Key/Whitfield, FL for landfall. 130-135 mph winds.
So here is my 1st general outlook. I felt confident enough in the general ideas to issue this today This is just general and may change, possibly significantly. I plan to issue my 1st forecast tomorrow at some point. Hopefully this answers your questions about your backyard 4 now
Because I cant help myself. 12z ECMWF and CMC are major winter storms for our area next Fri/Sat Ensemble signal has been there for a few cycles 12z UKMET has a lighter event, but had a bigger on on the 00z cycle. GFS is too surpressed. Have to watch next weekend! Signal is there!
Watching the Islands for
#Lee
Pretty decent shift south for the 18z EPS members vs 12z for the Islands. Still stay north, but this is close enough to bring impacts and much more of a shift south could bring the Islands into a more concerning place.
So here is my 1st forecast. The storm has trended suppressed/weaker/less precip today. The area with the best chance for the heaviest snow is the NE piedmont of NC into SE Va. Worst ice NE SC/SE NC. We will have to watch trends this evening.
Here is an updated forecast map I will update this afternoon if necessary Did cut totals in general some I am going more with 6z GFS/ECMWF/RGEM/ICON blend as they have been more consistent For now NAM solution is considered but discounted However, if NAM is right, this will bust.
Ok here is my first forecast with numbers. As you can see, lots of variation and this is a tough forecast. I will likely bust in some areas. I will update later today and tomorrow, even if it is to say map looks good no changes
#snow
#ncwx
#scwx
#gawx
#vawx
Here is my 1st forecast. Area D has the most uncertainty right now. There could be banding in this area with the passage of the upper trough and locally higher amounts. I will try to narrow in on that in later updates.
#snow
#ncwx
#scwx
#vawx
Here is a 1st very general outlook. I am not ready to give amounts yet, this is still 4 days away for most! Just gives a general idea of my thinking right now. I will update this again tomorrow. 1st forecast likely Friday.
Here is the latest model landfall points with the 00z/06z cycle Overall, a slight shift south with the cluster now near Brandenton. I shifted my landfall slightly south to the mouth of Tampa Bay (125-130mph). Clearwater to Sarasota is in the highest risk for landfall IMO
#Milton
This is quite the look on the 12z EPS for 12/23. Mega ridge over Alaska into the Arctic Circle, cross-polar flow, -NAO, deep cold trough over the Midwest/Lakes. This has the look of a big arctic outbreak. Very cold Christmas could be on tap.
00z GFS goes even a step further than the 18z run. It digs the northern stream system further south and west and cuts off. Result epic storm. Obviously extreme solution. Would be long duration major winter storm. Not likely but this in the D5-6 range now, so has to be watched.
Alright here is my first call. Obviously subject to changes and tweaks. Certain areas are tricky and will likely require further refinement. Areas of SW NC/E TN are always tricky for me, so rely on local experts in those areas. Will try to answer any questions I can
#ncwx
#vawx
It is a little difficult to tell with the eye gone and the brightness of the visible imagery. But looks like the center of
#Beryl
is still lining up with the furthest NE tracks of the 6z EPS. It could be back over water in 4-6 hours.
Latest model forecast landfall points for
#Milton
and the NHC/my landfalls. Very close to the NHC, landfall at St. Petersburg on Wednesday evening. I am going for 130-135 mph winds at landfall, but confidence is low as some weakening should occur. Tampa Bay is under the gun.
These are the latest model landfall points and mine and the NHC landfall points. I am staying at Steinhatchee as a 125 mph storm at landfall for now. But seems to be 2 clusters one around there and the other up in Apalachee Bay.
Definitely seems on the EPS that the stronger the storm is in the western Carib, the further north towards the NE Yucatan
#Beryl
will track and beyond that more of a threat to Texas. Weaker storm seems to stay further south over Yucatan and across BOC into Mexican coast.
The Carolina Crusher 22 years ago tonight. January 25, 2000, Winter Storm. The full case study can be found here. This was a surprise storm for many-->
#snOMG
#ncwx
#scwx
#cltwx
Here is my first outlook for the event Friday/Saturday. No amounts yet. For now, I only minimally consider the snowier NAM and lean towards the other model consensus. I will put out a 1st forecast with amounts tomorrow.
12z ECMWF continues to be the strongest model It changes many over to wintry precip Thursday evening/night A brief lull then a massive winter storm Friday/Friday night/Sat am It is stronger, so mixed precip is in the cards again, but only immediate coastal sections are plain rain
Pretty good Agreement on the cold pattern between the EPS and GEFS. GEFS has made a big move towards the EPS ideas. Look at that block over the Arctic Ocean on the EPS! Significant Cold likely the week leading up to Christmas.
The 12z GFS dropping then arctic s/w into Georgia is what you would want for a widespread winter storm in our area late next week. Of course, it is just one run of the GFS, lets see if any other 12z models join that scenario. 00z ECMWF had it over Va/NC.
I will go into more detail tomorrow morning, but I am watching next weekend for more wintry potential. In general, the models are a little more favorable today, but certainly still not a strong signal for our area yet. Still watching. Will keep you updated.
Sorry, ran out of time today to issue a 1st forecast. I did update my general outlook attached, I plan to get up early and issue a first forecast with numbers in the morning. I will also include some details for individual cities.
#snow
#ncwx
#scwx
#vawx
Here is my update after the 12z models. Changes were: 1. Removed the zone of snow in KY as that is over now. 2. Upped upper range of zone C to 2-5 inches. 3. E Upped to ice accrual to 0.4 inches. 4. Zone H upped upper range to dusting to 2 inches. In general no major changes.
As others have said,
#Beryl
is trending north of the EPS members even the 6z although it is hard to tell where the center on IR is, the NHC has it at 19N/82.6W Which looks north of all members already A further north hit on Yucatan would mean less time on less weakening.
12z modeled landfall points for the major global models/ensemble means and the 4 regional scale hurricane models There is a cluster (GEFS/HMON/HWRF/UKMET/GFS) on the west side near Apalachee Bay, another cluster (HAFS-A and B, ECMWF, EPS, ICON, CMC) from Steinhatchee to Cedar Key
1) As far as storm potential around 2/4 to 2/6 time frame. I am intrigued but not super excited yet. The 6z GEFS certainly has a significant number of members showing a SE US/mid-Atlantic winter storm.
Certainly an interesting and active pattern ahead even after the active weather day today locally. The ECMWF shows a 507dm 500mb low over our area next Thursday 🤨 Cold looks assured for Christmas, any wintry chances?
This is quite the 30 day mean 500mb anomaly look from yesterdays EC46 for 2/15 to 3/15. For cold/snow lovers in the South/East lets hope it happens and we can maximize the potential.
As we stand on the eve of this winter event. Let this sync in. Only 15 of 131 December on record for Raleigh have had 3+ inches of snow or more. I think we have a good shot to get over that tomorrow. And this winter is likely to be very active in Jan/Feb/Mar. This is cake.
A huge concern with
#Debby
is that we are about to add 5-20 inches of rain on spots esp in NC, where 10 or more inches of rain has fallen since 7/1. I expect some huge flooding issues. I have had 16.49 inches at my house 5 miles west of Youngsville since 7/1.
As the Sandhills surge back toward 70 degrees today, Snowhounds can fondly look back (way back!) on an event that took place nearly a quarter-century ago -- The Carolina Crusher of 2000. 1/x
Here is an updated model forecast landfalls point graphic. The 18z models have trended more to an Apalachee Bay landfall. My forecast landfall of Horseshoe Beach is now south of the model consensus.
#Idalia
Thank you to everyone for your well wishes and condolences. I am very grateful for the kinds words. I feel for those of you who have had to walk this path as well. God's comfort has been been front and center for us. Thanks again.
The latest 12z landfall points and the NHC and my forecast landfalls. The majority of dynamic/global models are clustered from the mouth of Tampa Bay to the Sarasota area. For now, I remain at the mouth of Tampa Bay with 125-130 mph winds at landfall late tomorrow evening
#Milton
After nearly 15 years, my model graphics page will be no more. I want to thank all who have visited it over the years and supported the efforts. I will still create graphics on my own and post them when applicable. Thanks again.
#Helene
didnt rapidly intensify overnight it seems do to an eyewall replacement cycle. Good news for limiting the intensity cap. However, recon in there just found FL winds of 105 knots, and an extrapolated pressure of 962mb. So it does appear to still be strengthening.