Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Twitter profile

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Allan Huffman

2 years

So I have launched my patreon page. It will have discussion/videos most days, not every day. Particularly during winter storms/tropical systems. Hopefully it is enjoyable and affordable. Thanks!

creating weather discussions/content

www.patreon.com

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

A sad day for me and my family. My mom went to be with the Lord last night after battling stage 4 cancer for a few weeks. The Lord is good and prayers for me and my family are appreciated. Thanks.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

16 days

1) Here are the latest model landfall points. Now very clustered from Bradenton to Sarasota. With #Milton weakening, I am going for a category 3 storm 115-125 mph landfall remaining near Longboat Key, FL. Still have to be wary of wobbles, but the cluster is obvious.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

17 days

So here is the 18z/12z model points for #Milton I zoomed in a bit. I have shifted my landfall point slightly south to Bradenton Beach. Still several models in Tampa Bay, but big cluster just south of Tampa Bay.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

5 years

Just wow. Look at that couplet.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 months

Here comes early Fall.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 months

Eye showing up in visible imagery now, and definitely north of all the 6z EPS tracks #Beryl

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

Big shift east in the 18z EPS members as well compared to 12z for #Ian . Tampa to Cape Coral landfall threat increasing.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Beyond the storm the 12z GFS shows 3 major cold shots into the US, especially the central US over the next 2 weeks. This isnt necessarily fantasy either.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

17 days

The latest 00z/06z landfall points for #Milton The 6z ECMWF/6z ICON/00z EPS mean are still further N near Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg The other guidance is clustered from Bradenton to Venice. I am shifting slightly south to Longboat Key/Whitfield, FL for landfall. 130-135 mph winds.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

So here is my 1st general outlook. I felt confident enough in the general ideas to issue this today This is just general and may change, possibly significantly. I plan to issue my 1st forecast tomorrow at some point. Hopefully this answers your questions about your backyard 4 now

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

My final forecast. From here out I will just issue updates with tweets but not tweak the map. #snow #ncwx #scwx #vawx

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

7 months

Wolfpack Fans:

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

The worst of summer is likely over for the Carolinas.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 year

Impressive satellite view of the storm. Currently considered non-tropical.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 year

Like with the 18z op ECMWF, the 18z EPS members shifted NW a bit too and were more intense #Idalia

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

29 days

The eye is clearing out nicely on IR imagery. Worst case scenario unfolding #Helene

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Because I cant help myself. 12z ECMWF and CMC are major winter storms for our area next Fri/Sat Ensemble signal has been there for a few cycles 12z UKMET has a lighter event, but had a bigger on on the 00z cycle. GFS is too surpressed. Have to watch next weekend! Signal is there!

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 year

Watching the Islands for #Lee Pretty decent shift south for the 18z EPS members vs 12z for the Islands. Still stay north, but this is close enough to bring impacts and much more of a shift south could bring the Islands into a more concerning place.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Using @webberweather excellent map for NC. Comparing the NC part of my forecast to the actual snow. In general worked out pretty good for most areas.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

So here is my 1st forecast. The storm has trended suppressed/weaker/less precip today. The area with the best chance for the heaviest snow is the NE piedmont of NC into SE Va. Worst ice NE SC/SE NC. We will have to watch trends this evening.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Here is an updated forecast map I will update this afternoon if necessary Did cut totals in general some I am going more with 6z GFS/ECMWF/RGEM/ICON blend as they have been more consistent For now NAM solution is considered but discounted However, if NAM is right, this will bust.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 months

12z ECMWF now literally showing a 969-970mb storm in Matagorda Bay, Texas. #Beryl

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 months

The 18z ECMWF shifts further east again closer to Galveston Bay #Beryl

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

The 00z NAM is not backing down from its 18z run. Snowy Friday night/Sat am.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 year

With the way #Ophelia looks right now and the recon data we saw a bit ago, i think hurricane status is likely before landfall 75-80 mph storm.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Ok here is my first forecast with numbers. As you can see, lots of variation and this is a tough forecast. I will likely bust in some areas. I will update later today and tomorrow, even if it is to say map looks good no changes #snow #ncwx #scwx #gawx #vawx

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

5 years

Looking specifically at the trend of the ECMWF Ensemble tracks from yesterday's 12z run to today's 00z run. #Dorian

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Here is my 1st forecast. Area D has the most uncertainty right now. There could be banding in this area with the passage of the upper trough and locally higher amounts. I will try to narrow in on that in later updates. #snow #ncwx #scwx #vawx

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Here is a 1st very general outlook. I am not ready to give amounts yet, this is still 4 days away for most! Just gives a general idea of my thinking right now. I will update this again tomorrow. 1st forecast likely Friday.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

NFL overtime rules suck

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 years

Here were the 12z major global models and their ensembles. #Isaias

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

18 days

Here is the latest model landfall points with the 00z/06z cycle Overall, a slight shift south with the cluster now near Brandenton. I shifted my landfall slightly south to the mouth of Tampa Bay (125-130mph). Clearwater to Sarasota is in the highest risk for landfall IMO #Milton

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

The 18z ICON shows more snow than ice, ice confined to central SC into SE NC.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Woof NC on the 18z GFS

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 months

Significant number of EPS members develop the next 3 waves in the Atlantic 👀

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

This is quite the look on the 12z EPS for 12/23. Mega ridge over Alaska into the Arctic Circle, cross-polar flow, -NAO, deep cold trough over the Midwest/Lakes. This has the look of a big arctic outbreak. Very cold Christmas could be on tap.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

00z GFS goes even a step further than the 18z run. It digs the northern stream system further south and west and cuts off. Result epic storm. Obviously extreme solution. Would be long duration major winter storm. Not likely but this in the D5-6 range now, so has to be watched.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

5 years

My first forecast map. I will revise later today if necessary and tomorrow morning as well. Stay tuned. #ncwx #scwx

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

6 years

Alright here is my first call. Obviously subject to changes and tweaks. Certain areas are tricky and will likely require further refinement. Areas of SW NC/E TN are always tricky for me, so rely on local experts in those areas. Will try to answer any questions I can #ncwx #vawx

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 months

It is a little difficult to tell with the eye gone and the brightness of the visible imagery. But looks like the center of #Beryl is still lining up with the furthest NE tracks of the 6z EPS. It could be back over water in 4-6 hours.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 month

Here are the 12z model landfall points for #PTC9 future #Helene Clustering today from Apalachee Bay to Cedar Key.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Good Morning. My final forecast for this event for our area.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

18 days

Latest model forecast landfall points for #Milton and the NHC/my landfalls. Very close to the NHC, landfall at St. Petersburg on Wednesday evening. I am going for 130-135 mph winds at landfall, but confidence is low as some weakening should occur. Tampa Bay is under the gun.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

29 days

Hot towers firing on east/southeast side now of #Helene , may make a go at significant intensification here in the final 6-9 hours before landfall

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 month

"Eye" see you #Helene

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 months

#Beryl so far in line with the northern most 12z EPS tracks, which take the center towards Cozumel

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

18 days

Here are the latest model landfall points for #Milton big cluster right near St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

18z ECMWF with the slow crawl off the Florida West Coast Wednesday/Wednesday night.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 month

These are the latest model landfall points and mine and the NHC landfall points. I am staying at Steinhatchee as a 125 mph storm at landfall for now. But seems to be 2 clusters one around there and the other up in Apalachee Bay.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 year

🤔 #Tammy

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

11 months

Wow at these possible wind gusts over the region from the Sunday/Monday storm from the 18z GFS

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 months

Definitely seems on the EPS that the stronger the storm is in the western Carib, the further north towards the NE Yucatan #Beryl will track and beyond that more of a threat to Texas. Weaker storm seems to stay further south over Yucatan and across BOC into Mexican coast.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Single greatest snowstorm I personally went through.

Brad Panovich

@wxbrad

3 years

The Carolina Crusher 22 years ago tonight. January 25, 2000, Winter Storm. The full case study can be found here. This was a surprise storm for many--> #snOMG #ncwx #scwx #cltwx

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

00z NAM, slight adjustment west

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

5 years

That little blue ball on the imagery on the right is tornado debris being picked up aloft by the radar. Just south of Varnville, SC.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

17 days

Latest 1 minute imagery shows the cold towers wrapping around the eye again for #Milton we may see a period of intensification commence this afternoon

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

18 days

899mb! for #Milton

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

The 18z NAM was a little more interesting. Is it right? Who knows. Just a model

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

Great pattern if you love snow from TX/KS/OK to the Ohio Valley to the interior Northeast. For the Carolinas not so much 😢

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Here is my first outlook for the event Friday/Saturday. No amounts yet. For now, I only minimally consider the snowier NAM and lean towards the other model consensus. I will put out a 1st forecast with amounts tomorrow.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

12z ECMWF continues to be the strongest model It changes many over to wintry precip Thursday evening/night A brief lull then a massive winter storm Friday/Friday night/Sat am It is stronger, so mixed precip is in the cards again, but only immediate coastal sections are plain rain

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

Pretty good Agreement on the cold pattern between the EPS and GEFS. GEFS has made a big move towards the EPS ideas. Look at that block over the Arctic Ocean on the EPS! Significant Cold likely the week leading up to Christmas.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

The 12z GFS dropping then arctic s/w into Georgia is what you would want for a widespread winter storm in our area late next week. Of course, it is just one run of the GFS, lets see if any other 12z models join that scenario. 00z ECMWF had it over Va/NC.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

I will go into more detail tomorrow morning, but I am watching next weekend for more wintry potential. In general, the models are a little more favorable today, but certainly still not a strong signal for our area yet. Still watching. Will keep you updated.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Sorry, ran out of time today to issue a 1st forecast. I did update my general outlook attached, I plan to get up early and issue a first forecast with numbers in the morning. I will also include some details for individual cities. #snow #ncwx #scwx #vawx

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

5 years

Happy Easter Morning to all. He is Risen! He is Risen indeed! #Easter

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 years

Happy Easter everyone. He is risen, he is risen indeed!

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Here is my update after the 12z models. Changes were: 1. Removed the zone of snow in KY as that is over now. 2. Upped upper range of zone C to 2-5 inches. 3. E Upped to ice accrual to 0.4 inches. 4. Zone H upped upper range to dusting to 2 inches. In general no major changes.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 months

Alrighty then 12z ECMWF

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 months

As others have said, #Beryl is trending north of the EPS members even the 6z although it is hard to tell where the center on IR is, the NHC has it at 19N/82.6W Which looks north of all members already A further north hit on Yucatan would mean less time on less weakening.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 years

12z Euro brings both #Marco and #Laura over the same part of Louisiana abut 42 hours apart.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 years

Ok here is the pm update. This will likely be the final map, but I will update/tweak on twitter as I see fit. #ncwx #vawx

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Wow 12z EPS says winter is going to keep going strong on past mid February!

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

20 days

#Milton model landfall points. Right now, I am going for Tampa Bay with a 115 mph category 3 storm. Clustered on the central western Florida coast.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 year

12z modeled landfall points for the major global models/ensemble means and the 4 regional scale hurricane models There is a cluster (GEFS/HMON/HWRF/UKMET/GFS) on the west side near Apalachee Bay, another cluster (HAFS-A and B, ECMWF, EPS, ICON, CMC) from Steinhatchee to Cedar Key

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Now the 18z GFS beefs up some too.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

9 months

1) As far as storm potential around 2/4 to 2/6 time frame. I am intrigued but not super excited yet. The 6z GEFS certainly has a significant number of members showing a SE US/mid-Atlantic winter storm.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Nice jump west for the 00z HRRR compared to the 18z HRRR

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

5 years

Ok my latest maybe last forecast for this event. Will update early this afternoon if necessary. #ncwx

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

A little activity starting to show up on the EPS day 10 forecasts between the Islands and Africa. Will need to watch to see if this is a trend.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

Certainly an interesting and active pattern ahead even after the active weather day today locally. The ECMWF shows a 507dm 500mb low over our area next Thursday 🤨 Cold looks assured for Christmas, any wintry chances?

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 years

Bad news. The state is about to be swallowed up by a black hole

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 month

12z model landfall points and NHC/My forecast. Still sticking with 135 mph in NW Taylor county for landfall tomorrow evening.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

9 months

This is quite the 30 day mean 500mb anomaly look from yesterdays EC46 for 2/15 to 3/15. For cold/snow lovers in the South/East lets hope it happens and we can maximize the potential.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

FYI, I plan to issue an update on the winter storm potential for this weekend later today.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

Are those lows in the upper 50s to low 60s I see next weekend for many?

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

6 years

As we stand on the eve of this winter event. Let this sync in. Only 15 of 131 December on record for Raleigh have had 3+ inches of snow or more. I think we have a good shot to get over that tomorrow. And this winter is likely to be very active in Jan/Feb/Mar. This is cake.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 months

A huge concern with #Debby is that we are about to add 5-20 inches of rain on spots esp in NC, where 10 or more inches of rain has fallen since 7/1. I expect some huge flooding issues. I have had 16.49 inches at my house 5 miles west of Youngsville since 7/1.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

9 months

Hard to believe it was 24 years ago. Still the most single enjoyable weather event of my life.

Chick Jacobs

@NCWeatherhound

9 months

As the Sandhills surge back toward 70 degrees today, Snowhounds can fondly look back (way back!) on an event that took place nearly a quarter-century ago -- The Carolina Crusher of 2000. 1/x

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 year

The 12z GFS thinks that #Idalia liked Florida so much it wanted to come back and visit the east coast.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

1 year

Here is an updated model forecast landfalls point graphic. The 18z models have trended more to an Apalachee Bay landfall. My forecast landfall of Horseshoe Beach is now south of the model consensus. #Idalia

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

Thank you to everyone for your well wishes and condolences. I am very grateful for the kinds words. I feel for those of you who have had to walk this path as well. God's comfort has been been front and center for us. Thanks again.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

2 years

Now it is the 12z GFS turn for a horrible Tampa Bay solution #Ian

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

17 days

The latest 12z landfall points and the NHC and my forecast landfalls. The majority of dynamic/global models are clustered from the mouth of Tampa Bay to the Sarasota area. For now, I remain at the mouth of Tampa Bay with 125-130 mph winds at landfall late tomorrow evening #Milton

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

4 months

I wouldnt be shocked to see an eye pop out soon IR imagery #Beryl

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

16 days

Looks like #Milton will make landfall near Sarasota just south of my Longboat Key call.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

6 years

After nearly 15 years, my model graphics page will be no more. I want to thank all who have visited it over the years and supported the efforts. I will still create graphics on my own and post them when applicable. Thanks again.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

3 years

Here is the latest HRRR (13z) It shows snow overspreading Raleigh by 4pm, ending around 1-2am.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

30 days

#Helene didnt rapidly intensify overnight it seems do to an eyewall replacement cycle. Good news for limiting the intensity cap. However, recon in there just found FL winds of 105 knots, and an extrapolated pressure of 962mb. So it does appear to still be strengthening.

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Allan Huffman

@RaleighWx

6 years

My final forecast for this event.

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