Kaylan Patel @WxPatel Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

Super Typhoon #Goni is now making landfall on is the island of Catanduanes Island with a pressure of 884mb and wind speeds of 195mph. This would be the strongest landfalling storm of all time in the Northern Hemisphere and tied for the entire globe with Winston (2016). #RollyPh

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

I've spent the last 5 minutes just staring at the gravity waves that the eruption created. The atmosphere is truly fluid.

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Wow, what an eruption.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

The @NHC_Atlantic is darn good at their job. They basically locked in a West Florida Landfall for #ian last week when it was still only a tropical depression. This is why it’s important to trust the professionals rather then individual models which tend be all over the place.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Fujiwhara effect between two cyclones in the Southern Indian Ocean.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 months

Where will there be thunderstorms? SPC: Yes

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Absolutely stunning view of the Tornado warned cell near Orient Iowa. #iawx

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

18 days

Absolutely nuclear dropsonde in #Milton with 183kts a few hundred meters off the surface

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Before and after photos show that the island of Hunga Tonga and Hunga Ha'apai is essentially gone following the explosive eruption of the volcano last night.

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

I've spent the last 5 minutes just staring at the gravity waves that the eruption created. The atmosphere is truly fluid.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

5 years ago today, the Sentinel Satellite caught this jaw-dropping photo of Hurricane Maria's eye. It was around this time that Maria was peaking as a Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Here's some video From Wyatt Weadge on Facebook of rotation as the cell approached Boscobel Wisconsin. That's some pretty violent rotation... #wiwx

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

6 months

5 PDS Tornado Warnings in a 30 mile radius is genuinely insane. Oklahoma tornado outbreak unfolding with multiple dangerous strong tornadoes ongoing in the middle of the night.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Damage near sycamore Illinois, residents are okay luckily. #ilwx @NWSChicago

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Footage of the tornado as it ripped through this building and Sycamore. #ilwx @NWSChicago

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Damage near sycamore Illinois, residents are okay luckily. #ilwx @NWSChicago

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

5 years

You know a tornado is powerful when you can see the path of destruction from space. The line represents the 60+ mile trek the EF4/5 tornado took on Sunday in Mississippi.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

Some pretty nutty supercell structure ongoing in Germany.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

First recon pass into #Lee might have the craziest temperature spike I've ever seen in a hurricane in a very long time. Recon found temps up to 26C at 700mb which puts it at the highest echelon of recon NATL, EPAC, or WPAC.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

Same vibes #abstorm

Kyle Brittain

@BadWeatherKyle

1 year

Confirmed...the tornado didn't do any damage. It stayed out over open fields, where it belongs. #abstorm

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

9 months

An extremely wet pattern is set to affect much of the West Coast and in particular California as we head into February. CPC analogs for the upcoming pattern already include years in which flooding was a major concern in 1983, 1995, and 1998.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

Here's a revolutionary idea. How about instead of tagging a streamer on twitter posts, we tag the local NWS offices instead. Tagging the local office allows them to better coordinate their operations, whether that warnings,partners, etc, with up-to-date information.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

To give you a glimpse at how small Hurricane #Felicia is, here is the entire storm fitting into the massive eye of Typhoon Winnie back in 1997. The entire CDO is around the same or smaller than even the inner eyewall at this time which is crazy.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Video from snapvideos show wide spread damage and debris from Hurricane #Ida in LaRose Louisiana. @NWSNewOrleans Credit: Unknown, video is not mine.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

Officially a degreed meteorologist now 🎉 #UWGrad

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

To this in perspective, a pressure of 930mb at this latitude would equate to a standard deviation pushing 10 sigmas below normal. It's hard to state how anomalous this event will be for the Canadian Maritimes.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

A month later in another bout of major warming of the Tropical Atlantic, it is now as warm on June 8th as it should be during the peak in Sep/Oct (!) In short, extreme warmth seen in the MDR for the start of ATL hurricane season usually is never a good sign moving forward.

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

The -NAO was so potent that the SSTs seen across the MDR (blue) are already nearing what you seen during peak season (black). Just insane how anomalous this warming across the North Atlantic has been as we head towards the beginning of hurricane season.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

8 months

The winter thus far has been an absolute torch with it either being the warmest or one of the warmest on record for much of the country. Torching will continue for the foreseeable future likely cementing the 2023-2024 as the warmest winter across the entire US, ever.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

The eyes of Hurricane Maria and Jose are absolutely breathtaking in these images.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

In the last 8 days this is the 4th instance of MRMS FLASH picking up on a return period >200 years for rainfall totals. In some of these cases the return periods were pushing 500-1000 years noted from other sources.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Stovepipe tornado on the ground in Iowa #iawx @NWSDesMoines

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

28 days

#Helene 's current intensification is nothing short of extraordinary. With VHTs firing in nearly all quadrants of the rapidly clearing & warming eye, it's almost a guarantee that the pressure is bombing out. Not an ideal scenario to have a storm undergo RI just prior to landfall.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

A pretty neat Medicane has formed off the coast of Libya. Pretty evident warm core processes at work suggesting that this a purely tropical cyclone. This storm can trace it's origins to the same storm system that inundated Greece over the past week.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

We now have hit raw 8.1 ADT which is absolutely mind-blowing. This storm is insane and I'm sorry for the spam but this is crazy from a meteorological standpoint. Storms that hit 8.0 and higher include Haiyan and Patricia

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

This storm is up there with the big ones in terms of ADT numbers at their peaks with the highest raw ADT that I can find in the archives. Matthew: 7.0 7.2 7.2 Micheal: 7.2 7.4 7.4 Maria: 7.0 7.3 7.3 Irma: 7.1 7.2 7.2 Wilma: 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.7 Rita: 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.3

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

As we speak, a extratropical cyclone in the North Atlantic Ocean is undergoing explosive cyclogenesis. By late tonight it will have dropped close to 55mb or about 2.5 bergeron in just 24 hours and 77mb in 48 hours.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Daily reminder that @JacquelynGill absolutely destroyed the so-called weatherexpert last year.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

#Ian is trying to make that push to category 5 prior to landfall with meso vorticities present, the eye clearing and lightning covering 75% of the eye now. I honestly can't recall seeing a storm about to make landfall having this much lightning before, it's unreal.

Andy Hazelton

@AndyHazelton

2 years

The eyewall of Hurricane Ian continues to produce quite a bit of lightning. Also quite a bit of evidence for mesovortices in the eyewall (see the little notch features on both satellite and radar). Very dynamically active storm that is going to do a ton of damage :(

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

17 days

Recon into #Milton this morning denotes that it has finished its EWRC from last night. The latest VDM reports a closed 12nm eye and no signs of a secondary one. This will mean that Milton should once again intensify (potentially very rapidly) through the rest of today.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

Later this week and into early next week, a very prominent ridge (>600mb & record max for this time of the year) is set to build across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes. This will likely result in the hottest days of the years for much of the area underneath the ridge.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Absolute chonker of a supercell moving into Southwest South Dakota .

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

With Ian slowly dying off, there will be a short respite before the next wave of activity begins next week. These two waves in the Eastern MDR are the next areas of interest to watch as they slowly move west and north in the coming days.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Another image from earlier today of the stovepipe tornado. It was insane to watch it go from a innocent lowering to a full on tornado. #iawx

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Today I learned that the CIA flew U-2 flights conducting high-altitude photographic surveillance of Typhoon Ida in 1958 to bolster their weather recon cover story and support the Air Force's Air Weather Service's typhoon research.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

20 days

The latest ASCAT pass shows that #TD14 does indeed have a closed LLC located near/under the new convective burst. If this convection and core can persist through DMIN, we'll have Milton sooner rather than later at this rate.

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

20 days

Morning light on #TD14 shows a very good looking storm that's well on it's way to becoming Milton. Deep convection near the core has been able to sustain overnight which allowed for a LLC to form on the eastern periphery of the cloudeck.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

That's an absolute nuke of an updraft over #Franklin right now. -95C on IR with a 45dBz core at 47kft and 40dBz at 53kft (!).

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

With the first cone out for #TD9 out, we can see how it will trek over waters with extremely high Oceanic Heat Content. Research shows that storms that traverse through high OHC areas are more likely to undergo rapid intensification in the face of other favourable conditions.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

Snow, Tropical Weather and Severe Weather all in one loop. Fits 2020 perfectly...

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Exactly 16 years apart, two devasting landfalls in Southeast Louisana. #Ida today on the left and Katrina on the right from 2005.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 months

With a recent NNW jog from #Beryl in recent frames, it is now tracking well east of the mean track for both the GEFS and EPS ensembles. This would suggest an earlier emergence into the GOM coming as soon as this afternoon.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

It's crazy to think that back in 1969 we had one of the best views of a clean EWRC from radar, and yet we knew next to nothing about it. Now if only Hurricane #Sam could learn a thing or two from Hurricane Camille.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

It's now been 5 years since Hurricane #Irma went goblin mode in the middle of the Atlantic. You see as the cirrus clear out, a pronounced stadium effect take hold with many mesovortices spiralling around in the eye.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Considerable damage near winterset Iowa. Trees debarked and a residential house was destroyed from what I could see from the road. People were on sight already assisting and taking a look around. #iawx

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

19 days

Recon into #Milton is finding an extrapolated pressed in the upper 980s which is almost 20 mb lower than the latest NHC advisory. We’ll await dropsonde confirmation but this is a quite concerning trend as the storm is already rapidly getting organized.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

If this were to verify, this would be the best upper level flow a storm will have had in years for the North Atlantic. The intensity ceiling would be insanely high for #98L based off of this UL wind pattern.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

A pretty cool timelapse of the Derecho as the shelf cloud passed north of Chicago. Lots of little tendrils sticking out with some observable rotation up and down the storm. #ilwx @ReedTimmerAccu @spann

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

It's hard to imagine a 155kt/903mb entering an even more favourable environment but here we are. #Mawar already a monster, is set to enter an area in which SSTs, RH, and OHC are set to peak while shear becomes nonexistent over the next 12-36 hours. The ceiling is sky high.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Two separate storms in different basins, both of which are currently undergoing RI. Hurricane #Sam (left) in the Atlantic basin and soon-to-be Typhoon #Mindulle (right) in the WPAC are going to be beasts in their respective basin sooner rather than later.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

This tornado about to hit Armory, MS is in one of the most volatile kinematic environments in recent memory. 500m2/s2 of SRH in the lowest 500m and nearly 70kts of shear in the lowest 3km is uncomprehensible.

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

Hodographs out of KGWX suggest tonight will be a long night for organized convection. With the hodographs ahead of both discrete and linear convection enlarging with time, any parcel that can reach LFC won't have a hard time beginning to spin in such a volatile environment.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

Buoy 42056 has been critical in determining in-situ observations while recon has been away. Pressure has tanked with the latest measurement under 997mb. This is still outside the core so it's safe to say that #Idalia is still intensifying... potentially even rapidly.

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

24 hours later and we can see how far SE #Idalia has tracked. That same buoy which was well removed from the core is now on the edge of the slightly exposed LLC. It's pressure is also dropping fast and now at 999mb with sustained winds of 27kts gusting to 37kts.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

@NWSDesMoines north of Harper #iawx

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

Twin tornadoes @NWSDesMoines #iawx

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

From NYC Cameras, flooding is already occurring at Amsterdam and 125th, a lot of FDR drive, Harlem River Drive at 164th #nywx

NWS New York NY

@NWSNewYorkNY

3 years

Flash Flood Emergency including New York NY, Brooklyn NY, Queens NY until 11:30 PM EDT

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

Last week, I was honoured to be awarded the William Sunkel Scholarship Award from @UW_AOS for scholarly potential. It was an absolute pleasure and I hope to continue to learn and improve my knowledge of the atmosphere.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

16 days

Through today it appears that the recently completed EWRC has nudged #Milton a tad west of the track from this morning. This would suggest a track closer to Bradenton to Tampa/St. Pete's but we'll have to continue to monitor wobbles N/S to truly know where it's heading.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

From earlier today, a tornado crossing the road in front of me near Clare Illinois. #ilwx

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

Anyone up for 8400 CAPE?

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

Over the coming days, a cyclonic wave break across the Eastern Pacific/West NA will finally usher in a slight pattern change. This is tied to Typhoon Mawar causing an extension of the North Pacific Jet allowing for -EPO conditions to arise as a result.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

The NHC absolutely nailed the forecast track for #Idalia whilst it was still TD10 this past weekend. While the cone encompassed much of NW Florida, the center line highlighted landfall near Fish Creek which is almost exactly where it made landfall.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

Hurricane #Teddy (Left) going through RI and Hurricane Lorenzo (Right) at initial peak last year. There are quite a few similarities between these two MDR beasts.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

A really neat cyclone has formed in the South Atlantic just off the coast of Brazil and Argentina. A solid eye surrounded by fairly deep convection within a larger circulation can be clearly seen.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

One year ago today, the Bahamas were changed forever. #Dorian

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

Hurricane #Lee and Hurricane #Jova a day apart while both undergoing explosive intensification. Jova became a category 5 hurricane later that night while Lee is more than likely will follow suit once recon arrives tonight. Simply incredible.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

Over the last 2 hours, multiple rotating VHTs have fired surrounding #Idalia 's core. As a result of the increased subsidence, the eye has warmed on IR while the CDO is much healthier looking. Recon has found that the storm has recommenced intensification during this time period.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

The lightning ongoing in Hurricane #Sam 's core is nothing short of astonishing. Over the last 30 minutes, each of those individual white dots indicates a single lightning bolt. Due to parallax it appears offset from the eye on IR but it's actually in the eyewall around the eye.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

On this pass of #Lee , recon went on a ride... They dropped 1000ft in 30 seconds and then regained 500 ft in another minute.

Deelan Jariwala

@WxTca

1 year

Those are some pretty ridiculous SFMRs in the northwestern quadrant (up to 157 knots)!! With flight level winds still hovering in the mid-140s, I have to wonder what the NHC does here. SFMR has its uses but there's a lot of uncertainty built in with it at these intensities...

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 month

The current convection surrounding #97L is slightly further east than the center track per ensembles. If the LLC consolidates that far east, the storm would likely miss Central America completely while spending more time over the very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.

Michael Fischer

@MikeFischerWx

1 month

I’m just going to leave this here for no particular reason….

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

It's quite safe to say that the Farmer's Almanac was very wrong in it's forecast for the winter which isn't surprising considering it's track record. When your methodology includes solar science which deals with sunspots... it's just junk science with some words attached to it.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 months

The dry air that has kept a lid on #Beryl this weekend has begun to subside. Deep convection has once again begun to fire and has now almost completely wrapped around the core. Once this finishes and it can mix out the dry air, a more rapid intensification rate should follow.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

#Lee has utterly fallen apart this afternoon. It may not even be a C3/4 by the time recon arrives at this rate.

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

SWesterly mid-level shear that was under modelled has hit #Lee hard. This morning, we're seeing a lopsided CDO, cooler eye and pressure 10mb higher than last night. It'll be another 12-24 hours before shear abates so we should see a secondary peak of similar intensity on Sat/Sun.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

These have got to be some of the biggest snowflakes I’ve ever seen

Rebeca

@rebeiso

3 years

Así nieva en León @unileon hoy 5 de enero @tiempobrasero @ElTiempoA3 @MeteoredES

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

#Otis was a 50kt at 00z last night. It is now expected to be 140kts (Category 5) in just 12 hours from now. Absolutely insane intensification just prior to landfall near Acapulco Mexico.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

Hurricane #Ian has dropped has dropped ~14mb in 5 hours...

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

Everyone is tweeting about the current alerts spanning coast to coast and rightfully so. The last time I can recall the spatial area being this expansive would be 10 years ago during the infamous Groundhog Day Blizzard which coincidentally also brought snow to OK/TX.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

Average 11,000 CAPE sounding from India 🫡

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

#Mawar is an absolute behemoth of a storm. 160kts at the latest update puts it in a selective group of which only 7 other WPAC typhoons have reached since 2000.

Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

It's hard to imagine a 155kt/903mb entering an even more favourable environment but here we are. #Mawar already a monster, is set to enter an area in which SSTs, RH, and OHC are set to peak while shear becomes nonexistent over the next 12-36 hours. The ceiling is sky high.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

I made a quick gif on the lifecycle of the supercell and tornado that trekked through 4 different states in 8 hours across 200+ miles. I really hope that the damage isn't as bad as it seemed tonight but initial thoughts from EM and social media say otherwise.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Tornado on the ground NW of Malta #ilwx @NWSChicago

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

8 months

Major lowering northwest of Mendota with strong inflow into the base. #ilwx @NWSChicago

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

I was utilizing the SPC dataset of all tornadoes since 1950 for a school project and I got bored. So I made a Seaborn KDE Heatmap plot of tornadoes for each month. You can clearly see the shift from the Deep South to the Plains and back throughout the year.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

2 years

Best looking storm of 2022 #Nanmadol

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

The closest to a pure 8.0 in the ATL would probably be Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988. It had wind speeds of 185mph and a pressure of 888mb. Compare that to #eta right now and there's a striking resemblance. Image from @WxTca

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

@webberweather The NW quadrant winds increased 15kts in just 90 minutes. That is just absurd intensification for such a short period of time.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

2023 Tropics thus far: NIO: Biparjoy -> Highest ACE storm ever for the basin + C5 Mocha WPAC: Mawar -> 185mph Supertyphoon SIO: Freddy -> Highest ACE storm ever (any basin) + 3rd deadliest in the basin SPAC: Gabrielle -> Costliest SH storm ever NATL: Warmest MDR ever Insane.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 months

Absolutely nuclear dropsonde with winds nearing 170kts just 25mb above the surface in the eyewall of #Beryl (!)

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

@NHLBlackhawks Living in Spain but the S is silent

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

I reckon that if someone went through the thousands of photos from the GIBBS dataset they could find tons of unnamed storms in the Atlantic. For example in October 1997, two possible (S)TCs in the NE Atlantic went under the radar with both making landfalls in Iberia. 1/

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

A new VHT has provided what appears to be latest and most prominent attempt to build an inner core within #Idalia . Compared to previous attempts, this is upshear and curling directly towards the shear vector which is in stark contrast to the last two nights. Is it now go time?

Dr. Levi Cowan

@TropicalTidbits

1 year

18Z hurricane models convey the uncertainty in how quickly #Idalia will become organized enough to ignite rapid intensification. HAFS-B shows vortex alignment occurring tonight with the mid-level center (yellow) collocated with the surface center (red). HAFS-A, however, keeps a

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Supercellular colours in action

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

Last night I learned that Hurricane Dorian while making landfall in the Bahamas, had a borderline Pinhole Eye (~10nm) per the NHC. This blew my mind because all imagery of the eye has a strong stadium effect making the eye appear quite large.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

I don't think there is a picture that screams peak season more than the 12z ECEF ensembles. -4 Active storms (RED) -2 Active AOIs (Yellow/Orange) -2 More future MDR waves (Green)

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

4 years

Per ATCF #Surigae has now gotten even stronger in the latest update, it now has winds of 165kts and the pressure has dropped to 888mb per ATCF.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

1 year

I wouldn't be surprised if #93L continues to trends stronger on models over the next couple of days. Through today we've seen it maintain deep convection with a tightening circulation at the surface. TCG might come sooner than progged within semi-favourable conditions.

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Kaylan Patel

@WxPatel

3 years

It was around this time that debris from the tornadic supercell was reaching the same height that this person was flying at. That's just absurd to think about. Credit: @ATXHarrisonTran for the graphic

James Spann

@spann

3 years

Amazing shots of the top of the long lived supercell that produced a tornado most likely for over 200 miles Friday night. Photos from Kayla Coleman Photography at 35,000 feet in a passenger jet over Kentucky

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