- Academic/Pharma veteran
- Oncology & I/O
- Identifying asymmetric bets through scientific/financial deep dives
- Not financial advises
- Here to learn
$ARVN ESMO Breast abstract just available online, did no one see it yet?
Updated ARV471 + Palbo data
- Median 4 prior lines of therapy
- ORR 41.9% across ESR1 WT & Mut
- mPFS 11.2m
Any reason why VERITAC3 won't be positive?
I just want to remind everyone the key value of $JANX is not their PSA50 on their PSMA-TCE, nor the 100% tumor shrinkage in the NSCLC patient on their EGFR-TCE.
It's their entire platform of developing clinically-validated masked-TCEs to enable tumor-specific immune responses
$RVMD
Medical oncologist: "a breakthrough in pancreatic cancer in my lifetime"
Biotwitter/Investors: "nah it's confusing data. And they didn't put out a press release"
Adding more $JANX at $49.7. Guess no one is betting a BO this weekend?
While an immediate BO may not happen, and many think $JANX is overvalued. Want to remind everyone that $JANX is the ONLY company that showed clinical efficacy for masked-TCE in multiple solid tumor types ever
Hi Biotwitter, how do you guys identify new biotechs? Is there a systematic way to identify all of them / a list, then we can study them 1 by 1?
Essentially the modern day Biotech version of the 10,000 pages Moody's Manual?
Pharmas are evil
Tech companies are evil
Grocery stores are evil
Landlords are evil
Soon the only honorable way to become a (multi)millionaire would be becoming a congressman/woman
I’m sending a clear message to corporate landlords: If you raise rents more than 5%, you should lose valuable tax breaks.
Families deserve housing that’s affordable – it's part of the American dream.
Very looking forward to $RVMD's PDAC data update tomorrow
Note that $RVMD bases in South SF, and deciding to do the update at 8am EST (5am SF time). Seems like they are really eager to do the update ahead of market open. Why? Any other major update? Partnership?
$CTMX announced today on EGFR-TCE (partnership with $AMGN) clinical update next week.
$AMGN Q1 earning call tomorrow.
Coincident? 1 more day to find out
Interested to see how unmasked PD1-IL2 works in the clinics $REGN
And even more looking forward to see how masked PD1-IL2 works in the clinic! $XLO $MDNAF
$RVMD THREAD6
With 64% pts treatment still ongoing, 43% pts already >= mPFS of SOC of 2L PDAC, including patients from all doses. Feel free to do your own probability of success of the Ph3 trial and valuation
Buy me a lobster roll when this comes true
$RVMD THREAD5
Note that such numbers are based on all treatment doses, and $RVMD management had confirmed in recent earning calls that responses are trending even higher now that more patients were dosed with higher doses post DCO. Including a confirmed CR in KRAS G12D PDAC
Bought back a portion of my $JANX position at $51.5. I still love the company and the technology. And $CTMX data doesn't change outlook of $JANX IMO.
I don't expect an immediate BO for $JANX, plan to hold for long term
Happy to see how the new $ERAS compound plays out clinically. But by the time they start Ph1, $RVMD RMC6236 would have started 2 Ph3 already (scheduled Q4 2024).
So either they can wish $RVMD fails but in Ph3, or they will have to go later lines
Didn't realize $JANX took the top spot for Russell 3000 YTD returns. Took a lot of conviction to start a position of >50% of my portfolio on this small cap prior to the Feb data release. But I am very confident masked-TCE will become one of the most important oncology modality
On this week's catalysts,
@SamFazeli8
finds $RVMD phase-3 enabling data for pancreatic cancer as “decent” but notes that there is no control arm. Highlights the experimental drug’s 8.1-month progression free survival compared to 3 months in SOC setting. “It’s not perfect, but it
Just locked in most profit of $JANX at $64.
- $3.3b market cap pre-M&A. I'm happy to lock in profit now
- found this paragraph in recent 10k. Sounds like $JANX may favor program-by-program collaboration over a complete M&A. Great IMO, but may turn off many who bought recently
$JANX just recruited 2 new Board of Directors, highlighting both experiences in making strategic developments led the biotech being acquired
- It validated $JANX's strategic goal to be acquired
- But probably also mean M&A deal likely is not imminent
A random thought about $CTMX. While PDAC data is certainly interesting, it really depends on how $AMGN wrote the milestone/regulatory payment terms. If the terms are intended for CRC or pan-tumor, although PDAC opportunity is interesting, it can still screw $CTMX up big
Great back-to-back Cancer Discovery papers showing importance of CD8 T cells directed IL2 in reinvigoration of dysfunctional T cells.
How would that compare to $XLO tumor-selective IL2bg approach through masking?
There had been a lot of concerns lately about $RVMD being over-valued at $6.5b market cap with only Ph1 data
I think it's because too much of retail investors lacking understanding of the diseases and the RAS biology
I'm giving my own interpretation of the data here - THREAD
@AppleHelix
"How many of the patients on the control arm were allowed to cross over to the Ivo arm post progression"
"Is adding Ivo to chemo simply delaying progression by a bit? Is there any evidence that any cancer was cured?"
TP53:
- Discovered 45 years ago, most cited gene all time
- No therapies
- 500 million people currently living will die of TP53 mutant cancers without new therapies
Our Preprint:
- A general strategy for TP53 missense mutant cancers (majority) with prototype small molecules
A few thoughts about $RVMD
- Given KRAS mutations occur at >95% of PDAC, how much would a 2L indication of PFS 5-6m bring in annually? Seems easily $2b a year?
- Potential for 1L combination with Chemo in PDAC?
1 key difference for $JANX & $CTMX EGFR-TCE is that $JANX has a cleavable albumin component that keep activated TCE half-life short -> widening therapeutic window.
Unmasked $CTMX TCE can still have a long circulating half-life. I suspect that caused delays in dose escalation
$VINC raising $50m, 50% of the current market cap, only a week before clinical data update. Why would they do so if they are presenting good clinical data?
To be fair $ARVN also raised capital at $21 a week before strong SABCS update. Guess that's why their CFO is now gone...
Exactly. Every single scientist and physician I know of, especially those in RAS fields (GI or thoracic oncologists) are are extremely excited about the data. Investors on the other hand, kept casting doubts
$RVMD
While ramping up clinical development and regulatory affairs are certainly promising. It's particularly interesting for alliance management as well. What partnership(s) are they going to manage? =)
$XLO
While we are still looking forward for the masked-IL12/CTLA4 data from $XLO, the company started hiring many senior positions for clinical development, regulatory affairs, and alliance management. Guess what clinical data did they see?
$XLO is currently ~$30m below cash
This is how I see $JANX. The PSMA/EGFR validation of TRACTr TCE platform is a lot like the early days when $DSNKY validated their Dxd ADC platform with the T-Dxd data.
The rest is history
And they added in a ton more sites (e.g. Yale, John Hopkins, Dana-Farber/Harvard, NYU, MSKCC/Cornell)
Wondering what could lead all of these high-profile sites to enroll into the $RVMD G12D-specific trial all of a sudden? 🙃🙃
Dude are you really comparing enzalutamide combo in NHA naive patients to mono in late line NHA resistant patients?
You might as well compare stage 1 disease to stage 4 😂😂😂😂
$EPIC $JANX
$EPIX MC of $228M is 1/10th $JANX $2.2B!?
$EPIX Ph 1 data impressive: 81% of patients PSA90 and 88% PSA50
2-4x better than
#enzalutamide
alone
$JANX data: Only 4% PSA90 and 43% PSA50
Enza off patent in '27 is 44% of Astellas sales!!
$EPIX has (4) Ph 1 studies and pivotal Ph 2!
So Avalon (according to SEC filing) apparently sold a gigantic block of $JANX at open market on 3rd June.
Regardless of the gigantic size, it didn't even make a dent on the price (that day), and the entire block got bought right away.
Who bought the big block?
Great observation! Almost forgot pancreas is the trypsin factory! Anyone who ever works in a biology wet lab should be very familiar with trypsin =)
If that's the reason, it's less likely to be linker-specific. May be a free tip from $CTMX to $JANX and $XLO to try PDAC ASAP?
Lots of proteases are produced in the pancreas as part of physiological digestion, which are released in the event of malignant degeneration with cell death in the tumor tissue. This should lead to a high, relatively homogeneous concentration of proteases in the tumor and
/2
There are always newer generations of drugs work better on the same targets. ER, EGFR, HER2 etc. Many of such latter assets were rewarded quite handsomely
In biotech, a common pitfall in target selection is not that the target doesn’t work. It’s that the target is too late.
By the time a target is “validated”, it’s a crowded space and the most advanced drug is years ahead. And rarely do 5th-in-class+ drugs get handsomely rewarded.
Home insurance increased 26% in last 3 years
Mortgage payment increased 100%+ in last 3 years
Property tax increased 15%+ in last 3 years
But if you increased the rent more than 5% a year, then you are evil and enemy of the government
I’m sending a clear message to corporate landlords: If you raise rents more than 5%, you should lose valuable tax breaks.
Families deserve housing that’s affordable – it's part of the American dream.
Guess investors are really not happy that no buyout deal for $JANX over the weekend?
Did people actually expect a buyout deal to be finalized 2 months after data update?
@Orangeman1992
@MysteriousMole1
I'm saying if people completely discount the EGFR-TCE, a BO above current market cap is unlikely. I personally think JANX008 still got value, but need more mature data
How durable is the cPR NSCLC? Any ORR in newly dosed patients? It had been 2m+ since last update.
@english_august
@maw_tweets
If you deposit on Biorxiv instead of publishing in Nature, you will lose your pleasure to spend 2 sleepless years to revise the manuscript based on reviewer
#3
's non-constructive comments
$ERAS
good R/R according to
@Maximus_Holla
Can they be the next $RVMD in RAS space?
I think
@Quantumup1
posted some analysts notes in the past
$2-ish is a good entry
@LauraFlowD
@AlecStapp
Wait, there is no competency test for our legislators? Then how did they manage to make sure every single of our legislators is so incompetent?
$RVMD Note the mPFS of 2L and 3L+ patients on RMC-6236
That said, RMC-6236 monotherapy alone on 1L will most certainly result a significantly longer PFS than 8.1m
(THREAD2)
7. Albert Bourla (Pfizer): $21.56M
6. Daniel P. O’Day (Gilead Sciences): $22.61M
5. Robert A. Bradway (Amgen): $22.64M
4. Richard A. Gonzalez (AbbVie): $25.66M
3. Richard Francis (Teva Pharmaceuticals): $25.71 million
2. David A. Ricks (Eli Lilly and Company): $26.57M
(THREAD) Very interesting list - Highest-paid CEOs in the pharma industry for 2023:
10. Giovanni Caforio (Bristol Myers Squibb): $19.66 million
9. Robert M. Davis (Merck): $20.27M
8. Reshma Kewalramani (Vertex Pharmaceuticals): $20.59M
$XLO shows really great tumor-selective PK data of their masking platforms, although mono efficacy is lacking so far for IL2 and CTLA4. Yet to find out for IL12, but I believe combo is the key.
$JANX also has a double masked PDL1/CD28 for tumor-selective T cell activation
@Andre_AGTC
Whoever doesn't like $RVMD has no understanding in RAS biology. Literally every single physician in the RAS field, NSCLC or PDAC field is extremely excited about the $RVMD data and what they can achieve
Suddenly KRAS evolved as the largest druggable oncogene thanks to $RVMD
PROTAC is most definitely one of my favorite modalities. Personally a big fan of $ARVN for sure:
- first biotech to work on PROTAC
- founded by Craig Crews who basically started the entire PROTAC field
- 2 leading candidates with potential huge market opportunities (ER & AR)
@Lord_of_Biotech
I don't understand why everyone is comparing $JANX to $LVTX. One is alpha-beta T cells, the other one is gamma-delta T cells. One is masked, the other is not. This is like comparing T-DXd to HER2 TKI.
$CTMX - Massive Opportunity. Trial results coming on May 8th.
Can run like $JANX - Which went from $8 to $61.
$CTMX On watch the entire week into next week.
Certainly excited about the $CTMX data. Want to remind everyone though $CTMX will receive max $455m milestones/regulatory payment from $AMGN even data looks spectacular. While $JANX fully-own their PSMA/EGFR programs
While everyone is celebrating on $CTMX
Don't forget what $RVMD is going to bring to you 2H 2024!
- Updated RMC-6236 PDAC data
- Updated RMC-6236 NSCLC data
- RMC-6236+Pembro data
- RMC-6236+RMC6291 data
- RMC-9805 data in G12D solid tumors
@Leao_pel
In addition to 3+ months to get all the reviewer feedbacks, it would take the editors another 3 months just to coordinate all comments and send a decision. Then 2 more rounds of review before rejecting the article.
This is prohibitive of innovation and waste of resources
@Andre_AGTC
I'm personally more in favor for $RVMD. RAS-ON inhibitor is game changer, both mutant-specific or pan-RAS.
- Their G12C-ON shows great efficacy even on patients with prior G12Ci exposure
- They are also the first to show clinical efficacy in G12D and G12V, unparalleled
While we are still looking forward for the masked-IL12/CTLA4 data from $XLO, the company started hiring many senior positions for clinical development, regulatory affairs, and alliance management. Guess what clinical data did they see?
$XLO is currently ~$30m below cash
@MysteriousMole1
That wouldn't be a major concern for me personally. I think standard line-of-sight for EGFR-TCE market had always been NSCLC, HNSCC and CRC IMO. So totally fine for $JANX to yield to $CTMX for the PDAC market if it validates
@bio_clouseau
I think in general they became more "secretive" for the past couple months. They used to show progress on TROP2-TCE / PDL1-CD28 programs on website. Now they took it off and put in more generic info as additional TCE / CD28 programs
Not sure anything to do with M&A discussions
@NotJanetYellen7
If you are optimistic about $JANX and $LVTX, take a look on $XLO as well. They got some really cool tumor-selective checkpoint inhibitor and immune modulating cytokines ongoing, through masking strategy similar to $JANX. TCE in preclinical development.
$JANX -13% right now.
$150m mixed shelf common stocks. While $150m dilution does not translate into -13% of market cap. Investors are probably thinking an immediate BO is not likely.
I just want to remind everyone the key value of $JANX is not their PSA50 on their PSMA-TCE, nor the 100% tumor shrinkage in the NSCLC patient on their EGFR-TCE.
It's their entire platform of developing clinically-validated masked-TCEs to enable tumor-specific immune responses
(THREAD3)
1. Joaquin Duato (Johnson & Johnson): $28.40M
Very interesting to see $PFE and $GILD CEOs are among the top paid pharma CEO. And $TEVA of course...
$JNJ $LLY $TEVA $ABBV $AMGN $VRTX $MRK $BMY
(THREAD2)
7. Albert Bourla (Pfizer): $21.56M
6. Daniel P. O’Day (Gilead Sciences): $22.61M
5. Robert A. Bradway (Amgen): $22.64M
4. Richard A. Gonzalez (AbbVie): $25.66M
3. Richard Francis (Teva Pharmaceuticals): $25.71 million
2. David A. Ricks (Eli Lilly and Company): $26.57M
$MDNAF just announced preclinical data on their version of masked-PD1/IL2 bispecific as well!
How convenient is that both $MDNAF and $XLO are using the exact same MC38 mouse models so that we can compare?
@BioValues
Man I want to get some sleep, but every time I go on Twitter, I found more conditional activation / masking companies that I had not researched on...
Big Pharma Cash Expected to Catalyze M&A and Strategic Collaborations in 2024
M&A firepower remains abundant for Big Pharma – There is currently ~$197B in their coffers
$XBI