@APFactCheck
So youโre not refuting, just claiming that we donโt know yet. Shouldnโt we figure this out before using mRNA vaccines on billions of people? The burden of proof should be on the vaccine makers to show safety LT, correct? Not on us to prove it isnโt safe.
9
24
439
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Well, it finally happened.
@Amyris
$amrs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Quite possibly the worst run company I have ever come across. BoD and C-suite did an absolutely terrible job.
@johndoerr
@rypan
โฆ
4
2
6
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
@Biohazard3737
Why would anyone expect GLP-1s to kill fast food. Youโre talking about America.
People are going to discontinue GLP-1s in <1yr at a high rate -> end up fatter than before w/ less muscle and bone mass.
They will stick w/ same poor earring habits/not exercise.
Outcomes poor.
0
1
18
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
$lptx 1/2
Onsi announced at Piper the clock has started on BeiGene opt in 90-day review period. He laid out a compelling case for the opt-in based mostly differentiating your PD-1 antibody in 1L GC/GEJ and increasing PD-1 revenue/patient with the 50% longer PFS shown in Part A
1
1
17
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
1/2 Listening to $lptx Baird fireside chat. Doug Onsi explained it nicely that there are a few patients in DKK-1 High pop that has poor prognosis that were not able to stay on study for even a full cycle. They pull down PFS curveโฆ
1
3
13
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
A lot of people will have made money on $cytk but will look back and say they couldโve made more if they hadnโt over-thought it. All you had to do was load and hodl
0
0
14
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
$lptx 1/n the amount of misinformation and erroneous takes on
@LeapTherapeutic
this past week is startling.
Full disclosure: I am long. Credit here also to
@Biotech_Bros
and his podcast.
2
2
13
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Remarkable to see these stories in mainstream media when these outlets were shutting down people like โฆ
@BretWeinstein
โฉ for first discussing these issues long ago. โฆ
@WSJ
โฉ โฆ
@washingtonpost
โฉ
Are Vaccines Fueling New Covid Variants? - WSJ
4
2
10
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
5/n
Since Novartis had to scrap standalone approval for Tisle in NSCLC that actually seems very bullish for Leap because their combo would offer some return on Novartisโ investment in Tisle RoW rights and Novartis knows DKN-01 is a product with encouraging data.
0
0
13
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
$amrs acquisition of Menolabs makes sense. From pipeline below, Ectoine is planned for 2022. Ectoine has been shown to reduce symptoms such as vaginal dryness/skin irritation. At JPM conference, Amyris discussed moving into Menopause mkt.
0
1
11
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
If BeiGene does not opt in I would think $lptx would be a very attractive partner for BMS since Nivo plus Chemo is approved in 1L GC/GEJ in China and the U.S.
1
0
12
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
2/2 Onsi also said if BeiGene does not opt-in they have cash runway to bring Part C to completion (and run their other programs) without addโl funding
Also highlighted that getting Asian rights back would make them an attractive partner for other PD-1 players in 1L GC/GEJ
0
1
12
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Two companies I have large positions in are $rytm and $chrs. Unbelievable how negative investors are on these companies. One day investors will get some sense slapped into them
2
0
11
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
It seems $cytk analyst PTs have pinned the SP - people worried about lack of deal premium. Call me crazy, but I think itโs going to be done at a much higher price.
1
1
11
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
@Biohazard3737
We are not even close to AGI. This is really just speculation that he put out to get eyeballs in my opinion. LLMs are just statistical models. At best they can mimic human intelligence, but there is nothing โintelligentโ about them.
0
0
10
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
@brendan_49
@ttbros23
@Prof_Oak_
Define โhugeโ. $lptx data is pretty great so far compared to competitive benchmarks in 1L GEJ/GC. And their randomized trial design is very aggressive, so r/r seems pretty great from here.
0
0
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
7/n $lptx The conclusion is that having multiple PD-1s showing positive and similar results in 1L GC/GEJ is very bullish for Leap because a differentiated combo of DKN-01 + PD-1 would offer potential for any one of them to drive increases in mkt share and more revenue per patient
1
1
10
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
@pharmafather123
Honestly I think itโs a good decision. Safety profile is pretty good and there is good evidence of functional efficacy at longer time points. I think itโs kind of stupid to be bearish on the drug. If youโre short GFLTA Monday! $srpt
2
0
10
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
2/2
(2) investors don't like the company pursuing so many indications. My reponse is that a) some of the trials are run by external investigators, and b) the trials are well thought out to continue building $lptx value proposition.
0
0
9
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
My cost basis in $cytk is ~$28 if this drops to low $70โs Iโll add significantly as aficamten is projected to have peak sales greater than $2b, at low $70โs the multiple is about 4x peak sales of $2b.
2
1
9
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
1/2 $amrs shorts are burning ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
My main takeaways from EC are:
1) Amyris has a cash plan to get them to positive FCF without dilution.
2) David Beckham will be spokesman for menโs brand to be launched in 2023 indicating overall strength of Amyrisโ consumer brands.
1
0
7
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
A lot of people will have made money on $cytk but will look back and say they couldโve made more if they hadnโt over-thought it. All you had to do was load and hodl
0
0
14
3
0
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Excellent coverage on $qccuf by
@champt1001
fantastic opportunity and fantastic mgmt team to invest with.
On this second point about the mgmt. team: Watch
@SteveStewartORE
interview Charles Beaudry. This will be his magnum opus.
VIP Pick $QCCUF won the trade of the week competition last week at
@StoryTrading
- with a 55% gain! Congrats to
@champt1001
on that pick.
By the looks of the action this morning. It looks poised to run again.
0
1
8
2
2
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Fundamentally, I think mkt doesnโt fully understand yet the benefit to DKK-1 High patients. It just seems like a lack of awareness/understanding. $lptx
1
1
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
2/n $lptx DKN-01 has shown potential to:
(1) increase penetration of PD-1 inhibitors into populations with lower PD-L1 expression, and
(2) create differentiation from other PD-1s with approvals in the same indication
1
0
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Some thoughts on $elev
1) timing of corporate event is a non-issue
2) $mrk not a viable competitor (their payload sucks balls)
3) $azn only real competitor but $elev likely differentiates on tox
4) company shouldnโt talk about combo studies until we get data in mono (stupid!)
1
0
3
1
0
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
$find is run by James Sykes who discovered the huge $nxe Arrow deposit. Heโs discovered multiple
#uranium
deposits so no reason to think he wonโt do it again.
@SteveStewartORE
and The Ore Group helps
@baselode
with access to capital markets they are very friendly to shareholders
1
2
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
There were three patients in DKK-1 High pop that did not receive DKN-01 on Day 15 that pull down the PFS and OS curves. These are patients with extremely poor prognosis that were not able to get in soon enough and stay on study for a full cycle. $lptx
0
0
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Sold all my $rna. I like $arwr better. Just need to see some more data and clinical progress.
Also, I have bought a huge amount of $asnd today. Very positive on PDUFA. Would be great to see $lly buy them in 4Q.
2
0
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
@topologic_apple
@garbageman1985
@paras_biotech
I follow $lptx and $pdsb pretty closely, and I think both mgmt teams are excellent and proceeding with a very thoughtful approach to building their value proposition.
0
0
7
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
$amrs thank god Melo is out. Now the board needs to get rid of Han and replace the CEO and CFO with competent individuals. This shouldโve been done 18 months ago. Would also be great to replace several of the incompetent board members
@johndoerr
@rypan
@Amyris
2
1
7
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Small cap growth stocks are getting destroyed. Know what you own and stick with it. I think we are near the bottom and there should be a snap back. Stocks I am buying because they are absurdly cheap IMHO:
$rnlx
$amrs
$vrnof
$snpx
$fstx
2
1
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
/1 Some notes from $rnlx investor call today with James:
1) reiterated he expects to secure Medicare coverage this year
2) this week secured Blue Shield Blue Cross coverage in Illinois (not PRed yet) have Blue Cross Blue Shield coverage in 3 states total now
3
1
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
$pdsb
1/n
Some investors/analysts still concerned about the difference in ORs between high and low M9241 dose groups in the triple combo study. Frank gave excellent answer to the question which I will summarize.
2
0
7
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
If the mkt cap of $amrs falls another 10% the value of the entire company will be less than what the Biossance brand alone would fetch in a private deal.
0
0
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Doug Onsi $lptx CEO also pointed out that there were no patients with CPS > 20 in Part A. And much higher proportion of patients with low PD-L1 expression compared to Checkmate study.
@Biotech_Bros
@foxesthrufences
1
0
7
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
$pdsb waiting for FDA to give green light on pivotal trial before entering into partnerships. Syncs up with hiring of business development exec. IMHO this is a solid approach to building the value proposition.
0
0
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Top 10 favorite biotech longs right now (no particular order). Sold $celc to buy more Snowline Gold $sgd.v $snwgf
$elev
$lbph
$bbio
$nrix
$gern
$janx
$elvn
$eras
$huma
3
1
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
Itโs very encouraging to see 3 PRs in the CPS<1 group (n=11). This seems like strong evidence of DKN-01 activity in mono since the PD-1 inhibitor wouldnโt be expected to contribute much in the combo $lptx
0
0
8
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
@bkfViking123
The current mkt cap seems ridiculous. They have backing from a great set of specialty healthcare/life sciences funds (Baker, Perceptive, Cormorant, Adage, Samsara, Rock Springs)
so people definitely see the potential value here. $lptx
0
0
6
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron
@zen_tropy
I imagine
@BeiGeneGlobal
would like a large footprint in US CPI market. CRC 2nd leading cause of death amongst cancer N in US , 5FU chemo mainly SOC in CRC. DKK1 over expression/5FU resistance. Tislelizumab/DKN-01/5FU CRC trial? $lptx
0
0
6
1
0
7
Need Janux Buyout โข Jonathan Lim๐๐๐โขtin baron