Mar 2024 update top 10
$VKTX obesity
$MDGL first in NASH
$XENE first in seizures
$KRYS first DEB
$BPMC SM SOC
$IMCR first TCR
$BHVN CNS & AutoImmune
$AXSM CNS MDD
$ARVN TPD
$RVMD RAS(ON) KRAS
End 2023 update top 10+1
$XENE first in seizures
$MDGL first in NASH
$KRTX first in schizo
$BPMC SM SOC, cancer
$KRYS first DEB
$BHVN CNS & Autoimmune
$VKTX NASH + obesity
$IMCR first TCR
$AXSM CNS MDD
$MLTX Autoimmune IL17AF nano
$RVMD RAS(ON) KRAS
The WF table from 2024 has about 30 names
As a reminder - the table from June 2023 had 12 names, 4 were aquired
$CERE $IMGN $RETA $MRTX
Hit rate is impressive- 33%
It is difficult to repeat that- would mean 10 BOs by the end of 2024 from the list, but let's see in Jan 2025
$RETA My 4th Buyout for 2023, this one was a big one.. Ordered by return
$SGEN 50 to 230
$RETA 50 to 170
$PRVB 7 to 28
$CINC 10 to 30
$DICE tiny starter
Still open
$MDGL
$KRTX
$KRYS
$AXSM
Useful table with BOs. Shows what big pharma is looking to buy.
I had only one hit in 2022 - $TPTX
Much better start for 2023 - already 3 BOs
$SGEN
$PRVB
$CINC
$DICE (small starter position, probably should not be even include it in the list)
Revisiting the WF table from June 2023
$ABBV beat $PFE on $CERE
and beat $MRK on $IMGN
$BIIB beat $PFE on $RETA
Probably $PFE will get $AXSM and $KRYS in return
$JNJ - $KRTX
$MRK - $MDGL
Who I'd getting $BPMC & $TGTX?
$BMY?
$VKTX
Viking could be sitting on a gold mine. William Blair analyst Andy Hsieh projects VK2735 peak sales of $14.4 billion in the U.S. and an additional $7.2 billion in Europe
My PDUFA calender update
Apr 30 $DAWN
May 25 $ABEO
Jun 4 $CPRX
Jun 26 $VRNA
Jun 30 $RCKT (NP - will reenter closer to PDUFA)
Aug 4 $ADAP
Aug 28 $SNDX (NP - will enter closer to PDUFA)
$VKTX
Hmm, Apr 5 90c 1000 contracts at 4.80.
So some just put 0.5m in 90 call expiring in 3 week? +30% in 3 weeks.
It looks oral data are comming and someone is making 0.5m bet that they are good.
End 2023 update top 10+1
$XENE first in seizures
$MDGL first in NASH
$KRTX first in schizo
$BPMC SM SOC, cancer
$KRYS first DEB
$BHVN CNS & Autoimmune
$VKTX NASH + obesity
$IMCR first TCR
$AXSM CNS MDD
$MLTX Autoimmune IL17AF nano
$RVMD RAS(ON) KRAS
Mid year update top 10
2 BO slots to be replaced soon
$XENE first in seizures in 50y
$SGEN first ADC
$MDGL first in NASH
$KRTX first in schizo in 50y
$KRYS first DE Bullosa
$RETA first in FA
$VKTX BIC NASH + obesity
$IMCR first TCR
$AXSM BIC MDD
$VTYX BIC TYK2 autoimmune
$VKTX
Truist note
For chronic dosing outside of cancer, tolerability trumps the efficacy
As Paul $MDGL famously said - for long term use the drug should have comparable toxicity to baby milk
Update in the top 10 after recent developments
$MDGL first in NASH
$XENE first in seizures in 50y
$VKTX BIC NASH + Obesity
$SGEN first ADC
$KRTX first in schizo in 50y
$IMCR first TCR
$KRYS first DEBullosa
$AXSM best class MDD
$VTYX BIC TYK2 autoimmune
$KYMR best in
#TPD
My core positions balanced
CNS autoimmune oncology metabolic
$XENE first in seizures in 50y
$MDGL first NASH
$SGEN fist ADC
$IMCR fist TCR
$RLAY best in
#AIDD
$KYMR best in
#TPD
$KRTX first in schizo in 50y
$AXSM best class MDD
$KRYS first DEBullosa
$RXRX new age drug discovery
Putting my PDUFA ducks in a row
$MIRM PDUFA Mar 13
$MDGL PDUFA Mar 14
$ABEO PDUFA May 24
$VRNA PDUFA June 26
$ADAP PDUFA Aug 4
Plus a bunch of other near term catalysts for
$VKTX $AMLX $AXSM $ACAD $ITCI $GPCR
$VKTX
VK2735 has better tolerability than CagriSema, which $NVO refers to in their oral data, without details
In $VKTX case, the first 2 weeks contributed mainly to the AE.
With proper titration - starting with 2.5mg instead of 5mg, it can become the safest option on the market
$VKTX
Jul calls from strike $24 to $30
13000 contracts -> 1.3M shares
Jul puts only ~700 contracts around strike $15
Huge confidence that the data will be positive - almost 20:1
ASCO poster session
Oh my... tausends chasing a few targets.
That's why I like not crowded targets like
Kv7 - epilepsy
$XENE and second distant $BHVN,
M1/M4 - schizophrenia
$KRTX and second distant $CERE
THR-b -NASH
$MDGL and 2nd / 3rd distant $VKTX $TERN
My core positions balanced
CNS autoimmune oncology metabolic
$XENE first in seizures in 50y
$MDGL first NASH
$SGEN fist ADC
$IMCR fist TCR
$RLAY best in
#AIDD
$KYMR best in
#TPD
$KRTX first in schizo in 50y
$AXSM best class MDD
$KRYS first DEBullosa
$RXRX new age drug discovery
WF Jun 2023 table. Good score
5 of 12 are acquired 42% hit rate
$CERE $IMGN $RETA $MRTX $KRTX
Another 5 might follow in 2024 w/ high probability
$MDGL $BPMC $AXSM $KRYS $RYTM
Last two - I have no strong opinion
Could happen but w/ lower probability
$TGTX $ARVN
Revisiting the WF table from June 2023
$ABBV beat $PFE on $CERE
and beat $MRK on $IMGN
$BIIB beat $PFE on $RETA
Probably $PFE will get $AXSM and $KRYS in return
$JNJ - $KRTX
$MRK - $MDGL
Who I'd getting $BPMC & $TGTX?
$BMY?
BVF fund
Good track record in 2023
1. $MLTX
2. $GPCR
3. $PNT - acquired
4. $RVMD
5. $MIRM
High probabilities the other 4 to be BO in 2024.
Accidentally I have good size posion in all of the above
$VKTX
Up on high volume.
High call volume as well
10000 contracts Aug 23 65c @ 5.10
That's $5M bet something is happening this week
Time stamp 3:59
Go figure
We can safely move $AZN to
#1
slot of the potential $VKTX acquires.
By terminating their GLP-1 program they clean the deck to buy $VKTX
Let's see when the market realizes that...🙂
Mid year update top 10
2 BO slots to be replaced soon
$XENE first in seizures in 50y
$SGEN first ADC
$MDGL first in NASH
$KRTX first in schizo in 50y
$KRYS first DE Bullosa
$RETA first in FA
$VKTX BIC NASH + obesity
$IMCR first TCR
$AXSM BIC MDD
$VTYX BIC TYK2 autoimmune
Update in the top 10 after recent developments
$MDGL first in NASH
$XENE first in seizures in 50y
$VKTX BIC NASH + Obesity
$SGEN first ADC
$KRTX first in schizo in 50y
$IMCR first TCR
$KRYS first DEBullosa
$AXSM best class MDD
$VTYX BIC TYK2 autoimmune
$KYMR best in
#TPD
$MREO
First time buyer - opened a position today. My buy order was filled at 3.60
Strong tweeter support -
@Pharmdca
@semodough
@ej23ny
just followed him - he is all over $MREO space
Sitting on a lot of cash from $IMGN and $CERE.
Still holding large position in $KRTX
$BCYC next
Fidelity has 11% position in $VKTX
Very unusual for them to get involved in small early stage biotech.
Two options
- they expect good NASH data and will resell to other funds.
- engineer BO after ph2b data
With 11% they will have a seat in the board of directors.
Anyway very +ve
Bio funds participation in BO
$IMGN $RYZB, $KRTX, and $CERE:
Cormorant $KRTX $RYZB
Perceptive $CERE $RYZB
Great Points $KRTX $CERE
Orbimed $KRTX $RYZB
Redmile $IMGN $RYZB
RA $IMGN
Just to keep an eye on these specialized funds
$AMLX
I am not pumping the stock bc I don't know how Phoenix will read out
But this is the most profound loto ticket since I started investing in 7 years
$AMLX is 0.9b company
$RETA was sold for 7.3B
ALS market is equal to FA
So 8x from here or small loss
Looks a deal, right?
Very high r/r stocks with pending catalysts
$AMLX before or in q2
$ABEO pdufa May 24
$RLMD ph3 data expeced June
$ADAP pdufa Aug 4
Regarding is high but risk is not negligible
$MREO 1 An overlooked small cap biotech with a significant upside for long term investors.
In this thread will lay out my bullish thesis and why this stock could be a great turnaround story over time as company progresses through their pipeline development.
$MDGL $VKTX $TERN relevant
Noninvasive NASH assesment.
Paul ( $MDGL ) said that by 2028 NASH will be Primary Care Provider (PCP) category. It means that NASH test will be part of the annual exam, like metabolic panel or CV panel
Let's say $MDGL $VKTX gets approval in NASH. Just a laymen question: noninvasively, clinical outcomes/response to a NASH treatment isn't objective like say, an insomnia med or a migraine tx.
Are these NASH meds gonna be a chronic tx, and if so, how will payors measure progress?
$XBI is it relevant? Top 10 in the index are stock which I don't know
$XBI is down 45% in the last 2 years
My bio account is >100% in the same period
Granted, I had 3 good size BOs, like $CINC, $PRVB and $SGEN
So build your index w stocks you like and forget $XBI and $ARKG
$RXDX
raised $500M in Dec 2023.
Confirms that capital raise and
aquisions are not correlated.
The same may apply for $VKTX and $KRTX, if they get eventually acquired.
My PDUFA calendar update
Apr 30 $DAWN (starter + calls)
May 25 $ABEO (shares + calls)
Jun 4 $CPRX
Jun 21 $SRPT
Jun 26 $VRNA
Jun 30 $RCKT (starter, to add later)
Aug 4 $ADAP (to reenter in Jun)
Aug 28 $SNDX (starter, to add later)
Updated short list PDUFA
My PDUFA calender update
Apr 30 $DAWN
May 25 $ABEO
Jun 4 $CPRX
Jun 21 $SRPT
Jun 26 $VRNA
Jun 30 $RCKT (NP will reenter soon)
Aug 4 $ADAP
Aug 28 $SNDX (NP will enter soon)
June is hot w 4 catalysts
WF top 11 acquisition targets.
WF just copied my portfolio🙂
All 9 ( no position in $MRTX $ RYTM)
$CERE
$MDGL
$IMGN
$KRYS
$BPMC
$AXSM
$RETA
$ARVN
plus
$KRTX $VTYX $XENE and $ITCI to get to my magnificent 13.
I guess in 2-3 years the list will be cleared.
Wells Fargo Top 11 Biotech Buyout Candidates:
$AXSM an immediate bolt-on powerhouse in our opinion, big pipeline led by very mechanistically strong AXS-05 (Auvelity). Also looking for SUNOSI as a "non-stimulant" in ADHD.
$MDGL as well, though the clock is ticking, and better
$VKTX PT to 35
The most important reason
"Derisked pipeline"
These are the dream words for every biotech investor.
The rest is easy - just hold until eventual BO
@JamesEKrause
Well done.
Raymond James increased PT to 35 based on "Derisked Pipeline"
Of course, they are one of the underwriters, should be positive.
$RXDX (no position anymore after the huge jump in Dec)
to be acquired for 11B
After good quality Ph2 data in Dec 2022
$VKTX has pending ph2b data in NASH. Similar market size
Let's see what happens after the data release😉
I bet $VKTX will trade high in sympathy tomorrow
$VKTX relevant
LY3298176 (Dual GIP/GLP-1 Receptor Agonist) for the treatment of Obstructive Sleep Apnea.
LY3298176 (Dual GIP/GLP-1 RA) for treatment of chronic heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.
It looks like $VKTX has a gold mine with their GLP-1/GIP drug
Start tracking Sofinnova bio fund
Looks specialized in BO candidates
They have CINC HZNP RXDX - alredy acquired
#1
in portfolio is $KRTX.
Another likely BO candidates are
$ASND $RETA $SRPT
Leering 2024
The list is long
My focus only in:
Targeted onc $ARVN $IDYA $KURA $IMTX
Genetics $BBIO $MIRM
Metabolic $IMVT $MLTX
Nuero $MRNS
Rare $SRPT
Cardio $CYTK
9 assets / target is insane.
Look at CD19 - 60 assets 🤣
That's why I like not crowded targets where the competition is measurable:
THR-b just 3
$MDGL $VKTX $TERN
M1/M4 just 2
$KRTX $CERE
Kv7 just 2
$XENE $BHVN
Any other clean targets to add?
Pipeline herding in drug development -
In 2000, there were on avg 3 assets/target
In 2022, there are on avg 7 assets/target
(in oncology its 9 assets/target)
$VKTX
what to expect from the oral data
They are using 20mg / daily
Bioavailability is 40-50% of SQ injection
20mg oral should correspond to 8-10mg SQ dosing
Expect placebo adj efficacy at 13w 10%
Since the trail is shorter, 5%
Similar to $GPCR data
Side effects is the key
$FATE
almost all programs are gone
two remain - 567 and 819
They hit Hard Reset button. Erased the last 5 years of development and market value. Back to 2017 levels.
$GRTX no position
But this is remarkable teaching story
1. Don't trust FDA even after priority review, BTD or no adcom
2. Buy calls and conver to shares if positive outcome. If negative, the risk is factored in the call price.
I learned this strategy from
@Maximus_Holla
$GRTX definitely mind boggling after no adcom and priority review granted by fda
I guess when it comes to fda you really can’t tell
Win and loss part of investments
$VKTX
who might be interested in BO?
Already involved in GLP1 and derivatives
$AZN, $NVO, $LLY, $PFE, $RHHBY
Many big pharma names are missing
JNJ, MRK, ABBV, NVS, AMGN, SNY, BMY, GILD, REGN, GSK, TAK
$VKTX A fair BO deal at 15B valuation would equate to $140+ Not expensive considering how good the data is, with excellent safety notwithstanding comp to competition. $PFE could do a big splash acquiring $VKTX and hope they do if they don’t want to miss the obesity market.
2024 is knocking at the doorsteps here - my 2023 take was an unexpectedly strong yr for the portfolio - the overall trend of the biotech sector of people staying/hiding/buying/merging in commercial/later stage assets remain intact for all of 2023 - that trend became obvious after
Staying focused on the endgame.
Projected revenue 2030
$KRTX $6B
$MDGL $5.6B
$NTLA $5.1B
$ITCI $3.6B
$VTYX 2.8B
$AXSM 2.8B
Total 26B. At modes 2x revenue - Projected sum of MCs is 52B
That's 200% from today closing of the 6 companies from the list.
$MDGL WSP $47,400
Targeted patients
NASH with f2 f3 fibrosis already seen by specialist 315,000
Seen by specialist mean they will be served on short notice
That's 15b launch focus
With discounts and freebies 10B
$MDGL MC is 5B
$PFE still wants to be in the obesity game, but not to pay too much, so looking for early stage
Options like $VKTX and $GPCR are trading at 2b
Just in case, got some Jan 2025 $17c at 7.50
Premium is high at 22%, but if BO at 30-35 the call would do well
No GPCR calls🤔
Someone asked in Feb 2023 what to buy. I rarely give direct advice but in this case I suggested
$KRTX 185 -> 330 +80%
$KRYS 75 -> 173 +130%
$AXSM 60 -> 76 + 27%
Average +80% in one year
Not a bad return
Hope he followed the advice
@astraystargazer
Difficult to say bc all have something unique to offer.
I would start with those which have near-term milestones.
$KRTX - Ph3 data in Q1, NDA mid 2023
The market is 10B and growing
$AXSM - a lot of catalysis in H1 incl migraine PDUFA Apr 30. MDD launch is great
$KRYS PDUFA
$MCRB label
It looks the best case scenario.
It does not say only after two infections, just after one CD infection and after antibacterial treatment for recurrent CDI.
It would move the peak revenue to the top of the 700m-1b range.
Thanks to $KRTX all my CNS stocks are flying
$XENE $AXSM $BHVN $ITCI $ACAD $MRNS $RVPH
Big pharma is not very strong in CNS, they mainly focus on oncology
Now they shift the focus with 22.5b for $KRTX and $CERE
What Baker Bros are buying with massive $SGEN cash
$MDGL
#4
+27% my
#3
$KYMR
#8
+26% my
#12
$RVMD
#9
+91% my
#10
$ABCL
#11
+10% (starter)
$BCYC
#13
+169% (starter)
$REPL
#14
+108% (np)
$CERE new BO in Dec my
#11
Incidentaly I put some of the SGEN cash in the first 3 names
$MREO
First time buyer - opened a position today. My buy order was filled at 3.60
Strong tweeter support -
@Pharmdca
@semodough
@ej23ny
just followed him - he is all over $MREO space
Sitting on a lot of cash from $IMGN and $CERE.
Still holding large position in $KRTX
$BCYC next
Remarkable - 6 bidders for $RXDX.
Went for 10.8B with good Ph2 data for $4.8B market.
It is anybody guess how many bidders $MDGL will get and at what price for pending NDA and $5.6B market.
The same for $KRTX - pending NDA and $6B market
$VKTX
My very first recommendation to buy VKTX Dec 14 2022 at 4.02
Different reason - NASH
Later the VKTX story developed in the obesity direction
So it's how my VKTX journey started. Let's see how it ends 😊
$MDGL is risky bc they don't have anything else.
You may try two options to lower the risk
1. Buy Jan 65 call at $20. If they fail, you lose $20. With direct share you may lose $40 or more.
If they succeed - you can make easily +300% or more
2. Buy $VKTX as a proxy
Jefferies: Most likely
#Biotech
M&A 2023
Nice visual on potential non-risk adjusted revenue value of each - the 🔑 factor as pharma is hunting for revenues
$ALNY $ARGX $KRTX $MDGL $NTLA $RDRX $APLS $ITCI $CYTK $ASND $VTYX $AXSM $PCVX $BMRN $FGEN
$VKTXTriple agonist in the clinic next year - 50% more efficacy
Dosing above 100mg for oral very likely
SubQ Ph3 dosing higher than Ph2
175-200hrs half-life makes monthly dosing for SubQ likely -ideal for maintainance of weight loss, or switching to oral.Smooth as same molecule
$CYTK Presents Additional 48-Week Data From FOREST-HCM, the Open Label
Extension Clinical Study of Aficamten, at The American College of Cardiology 73ʳᵈ Annual
Scientific Session
1. As quick revenue many good choices like $AXSM $ITCI $BPMC $AMLX $IMCR $SWTX
2. As future revenue $KRTX $XENE $MDGL
2. As platform $BHVN $NTLA $RVMD $MLTX $IDEA $VKTX
3. As ML tech $SDGR $EVO $RXRX
WF top 11 acquisition targets.
WF just copied my portfolio🙂
All 9 ( no position in $MRTX $ RYTM)
$CERE
$MDGL
$IMGN
$KRYS
$BPMC
$AXSM
$RETA
$ARVN
plus
$KRTX $VTYX $XENE and $ITCI to get to my magnificent 13.
I guess in 2-3 years the list will be cleared.
$VKTX
3 data readouts in 2023
VK2809 for NASH and Fibrosis;
Data in 2Q 2023
Ph1 Oral Formulation of VK2735; Results in 2H 2023
Ph 1b VK0214 in X-ALD
Data in 2H23.
$406M cash
Just for fun created Select Biotech Index (SBI) in Yahoo Finance
10 companies, simple sum of stock prices, same as DOW.
$MDGL $KRTX $ITCI $AXSM $VTYX $NTLA $KRYS $XENE $RETA $AMLX
Index today 867
One year return +54.1%
XBI -12%; SPY -6.7%
Based on revenue: 5x in 5 years
🙂
$MCRB label
It looks the best case scenario.
It does not say only after two infections, just after one CD infection and after antibacterial treatment for recurrent CDI.
It would move the peak revenue to the top of the 700m-1b range.
A brand new drug from $BHVN promises to promote muscle gain in patients taking GLP-1 obesity drugs
CEO Vlad Coric breaks down the treatment's latest clinical trial results and how soon it could impact patients and the weight loss space:
GSK as buyer in 2024
Will be focused on
“very targeted single products or two products in a company”
“I think top priority is respiratory and auto-immune...”
I have a few suggestions for GSK
if I may
$VRNA $MLTX $VRDN
$IMGN
Mirasol will become a standard of care in PROC.
It will accelerate the launch even further.
Patients live longer with less side effects.
If they get also PSOC the BO is given
🚨Amazing to see ⬆️ in overall survival for mirvetixumab in FOLR1 positive platinum resistant
#ovariancancer
. Absolutely new standard of care!! 👏
#gyncsm
#ASCO23
Some underfollowed stocks with key catalysts in h1 2024
$ABEO RDEB PDUFA May
$MRNS RSE ph3 q1
$RLMD MDD ph3 end q2 & q4
They offer good risk / reward bc the drug work do they are to large extend derisked.
Still note, the risk is not ZERO
Some exciting new GLP-1 drug randomized trial evidence for *potential* disease-modifying impact on
#Parkinsons
disease (there are none).
No progression of motor disability in the Rx group for 12 months.
$VKTX $LLY $NVO relevant
High discontinuation rate in GLP1 treatment after 1 mo (30%) and 58% after 3mo
VKTX has the best safty profile, so the discontinuation plot should look much different
🔹Over 30% of GLP-1 users discontinue medication within the 1st month, according to commercial insurance data.
🔹Over half discontinue before 3 months.
🔹There is a lower discontinuation rate when meds are prescribed by endocrinologists or obesity medicine specialists, and
$IMGN
ORR in the ELAHERE arm was 42.3%, including 12 complete responses (CRs), compared to 15.9% with no CRs, in the chemo arm.
That's great - 12 CR vs noting in chemo arm.
Chemo currently is SOC.
The enormous demand for weight-loss treatments like Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy could support as many as 10 competing products with annual sales reaching up to $100 billion within a decade, mostly in the United States, industry executives and analysts said.
$KRYS is fireing on all cylinders.
Very proud of them
42m in first full Q
Started ph1 in CF and AATD
Single arm 10 patients registration trail in ocular DEB. That's +25% future revenue
Arstetics - two data sets in h1
Fidelity has a special taste to some early and promising biotech. They are not a typical bio investor, but here is the list of their higher ownership positions. Interesting selection out of 1000s bios
$CERE 14.97
$MCRB 14.82
$KRTX 13.79
$VKTX 13.93
$VTYX 13.06
$TERN 13.02
$ABEO
insider buy 20k shares
A reminder - PDUFA priority review May 25, 2024
Estimated 250-300M peak revenue
At 120m MC it has a lot of upside left
Plus 100M PRV
One of those rare assimetric opportunities
#4
$XBI has its best year ever
#1
Big pharme enters Psychedelics
That's interesting
$RLMD has psychedelic program for obesity w/o muscle loss side effect