The full interview w/
@jam_croissant
is finally out!
We chatted about his trading experiences, 2nd-order effects in options, systematic vol supply, unstable equilibrium, 0 DTEs, big picture, roadmap '24...
You can watch this interview and others as part of our 'Traders Chats'
This is the one you've been waiting for! I sat down with
@jam_croissant
in my latest TRADER CHATS episode and we dived DEEP into the world of options flows.
1/ Cem🥐has created a whole emoji language around what to expect from dealer hedging flows throughout the OPEX cycles...
These levels of implied correlation on $SPX are getting ridiculous. They are at 20-year lows and there are so many hedge funds on this crowded dispersion trade.
The amount of pnl destruction that would occur if SPX index vol found a reason to catch a bid is immense. I
Want to improve your options trading skills?
First, you need to avoid common mistakes.
In this long-form tweet, I'll share 'The 3 Top Common Mistakes When Trading Options.'
I've made these mistakes myself over 20y+ trading options.
Avoid them & you'll be primed to succeed☟
Almost identical moves again yesterday makes me even more confident that the end of day buying in SPX is coming from dealers hedging DELTA on Jan24 long GAMMA positions. This will be dampened after Fridays OPEX. You’ve been warned!
Notice how 19Jan24 fixed strike vol was lower yesterday, but Feb24 and Mar24 were firmer. This shows that dealers are trying to cover short-term VEGA (likely from the VIX trades) The fact that Jan (GAMMA) was offered likely explains why SPX refuses to sell off materially.
The real power in owning options is when the Greeks all work at the same time.
DELTA - direction of the asset
GAMMA - how much it moves relative to expectations
VEGA - exposure to implied vol
Let's take the $GLD 15Dec23 185 calls for example. These were worth 0.45 on
As $VIX continues to implode, VVIX has started to tell a different story. Often seen as a leading indicator for VIX, this suggests that some more sophisticated players as looking for a bounce in VIX.
Here is the VEGA profile of the new JPM collar trade expiring on 31Dec.
I imagine a large amount of the VEGA supply (13-14m VEGA) was pre-positioned for, but what maybe wasn't so easy to position for, was the SKEW exposure. If SPX drops by 5%, this one position alone takes the
After an incredible Q2 Roundtable, we're back with special guests Darius Dale
@42macroDDale
, Brent Kochube
@spotgamma
, Tony Greer
@TgMacro
& Andreas Steno Larsen
@AndreasSteno
for a special edition Q3 Roundtable discussion... Is the bottom in yet?
#RT
🚨Attn All Would-Be Options Traders!🚨
To take your skills to the next level, there's 1 thing you absolutely need to do:
Learn the lessons the market teaches you.
& in my trading career, I've had plenty learning opportunities
Top 3 Lessons I've Learned From Trading Options☟
⚠️ Emotional rant!
I had one of the toughest weeks of my life last week. I lost one of my dear friends to a sudden heart attack. He was my age, 44 years old, and left behind two beautiful children and a wife. The grief that the family and friends felt was overwhelming and
So as we flagged last Monday in our morning meeting with
@spotgamma
, this JPM collar roll supplied around $10m of 3-month VEGA to the street, and is the reason that implied vol topped out mid-week as dealers got ready for that trade. What is interesting is that up 5% from here
Final JPM Collar for 12/29 Exp:
- 41k 4,515 C
+41k 4,055 P
-41k 3,420 P
Despite all the tweets about earlier prints, the trade always gets rolled to the final resting strikes right before 4:15PM.
Notice how 19Jan24 fixed strike vol was lower yesterday, but Feb24 and Mar24 were firmer. This shows that dealers are trying to cover short-term VEGA (likely from the VIX trades) The fact that Jan (GAMMA) was offered likely explains why SPX refuses to sell off materially.
How can you tell if options are cheap or expensive?
Three basic ways...
1/ BREAKEVENS
Look at the breakeven on your option. How much does the asset need to move for the option to be profitable at expiry, and make back the premium spent. Is that a realistic move for that
LOW VIX IS NOT A SELL SIGNAL FOR STOCKS
With VIX trading back down near 13, this data from UBS showing the average 3m forward return when VIX starts below 15 is interesting. It is not so much that low VIX leads to market weakness, but the fact that at market tops, we tend to
Do you understand tail risk and convexity?
Finally got to catch up with the awesome
@Ksidiii
on Real Vision this week. In this clip we discussed his approach to tail risk hedging, picking durations, monetisation and scaling out of positions. This was a great conversation you
Looking to take your options trading up a level?
A key concept you need to know & that we get asked about all the time...
Volatility Carry.
Carry refers to time decay associated with options.
There's a bit more to Vol Carry.
Time for an Options Education long-form tweet 🐦☟
The time has finally come - The Macro Avengers are officially back!
Myself,
@hkuppy
,
@42MacroAware
,
@TgMacro
,
@spotgamma
, and
@MacroAlf
team up to break down the big picture for markets in 2023 with our Q1 Roundtable.
Check out the clip in the next tweet for a preview!
𝞂 The Ultimate Trading Mind Map 𝞂
➠ 3-Part Series
OI Macro Options Daily subs know that I manage to come up w/trade ideas several times per week.
Week in, week out.
But how do I never run out of ideas?
By leveraging our Ultimate Trading Mind Map.
This is the process ☟
Index puts are looking v cheap. Socgen are agreeing, saying that 6m put spreads are as cheap as they’ve been in 20y! Any way you slice it, protecting equity longs is a no brainer even if you’re bullish. Whether is $VIX upside, $SPX skew or naked put spreads, take your pick!
➠ BUYING OPTIONS A WASTE OF MONEY?
People often claim you don't make money buying vol
& exclusively buying options is a sure way to light your money on fire
But if you know how to manage them effectively, there's absolutely money to be made
A seasoned trader's perspective☟
Yesterday SPX was up 0.93% and VIX was also up 1.2 vols. That is the type of price action we have been waiting to see and is indicative that vol is reaching a floor. The bid in fixed strike vol on the upside (see our dashboard below) also suggests that dealer gamma positioning
"You need to get comfortable with taking small losses"
Here is a clip from my amazing discussion with
@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
about the biggest lesson he has learned from 35 years in trading.
The market will always find a way to humble you and to be successful you need to stay true
3 Common Mistakes That People Make When Trading Options...
1/ Not checking the implied vol levels
When you buy an option to express a direction view, you are not just trading spot(DELTA). Your are also trading vol (VEGA). If IV falls a lot, your options premium goes down too.
Why do we get nervous when we see spot up/ vol up price action in stocks? It is a sign of instability. If dealers are bidding for vol on the way up, it means they haven’t been supplied with enough options and may even be getting short. Reversal risk higher!
Once $NVDA stops!
With markets shut today it's an opportunity to think about something other than options and volatility!
Life is full of challenges and I've certainly had a few in this past year. We can let this derail us or we can take them as opportunities for growth.
In my new podcast
@MacroAlf
and
@AndreasSteno
sticking their necks out with their own actionable trade ideas. This is the type of content we need as opposed to 50 page reports from bank research or strategy covering all possible scenarios & no firm trades or views. Respect
RANT ALERT!
Here is a clip from my weekly update to subs talking about why the fixed strike surface moves on SPX clearly indicate the market maker community is back to long gamma positioning on the latest rally in markets.
Using common sense and tracking the price action in
𝞂 Ultimate Trading Mind Map 𝞂
➠ 3-Part Series
We started this series yday & you failed to tell me the graphic didn't match what we were saying!😂
My bad - that was our Options Trading Map
But hey, you got freebie & actual Ultimate Trading Mind Map today
ANYWAYS
Part 2☟
4/ Meanwhile, behind the 19Jan expiry, the rest of the surface has been catching a bid. Fixed strike vol (31Jan-15Mar) since last Thursday is up huge! That is with SPX unchanged in the same timeframe although we did visit lows around 4720 this week. This tells us that $SPX
Fixed strike vol has been under pressure the last couple of days, making us less bearish. Seems index vol supply has come back to balance the dealers books and taken VIX down with it. As
@jam_croissant
has said before, we may need to wait until late Feb.
I think $NVDA earnings
@options_insight
You think this dumps hard after on next week vixperation and after opex into March, or just some small consolidation and pull back. What's the landscape saying?
Someone is buying a lot of 0DTE SPX calls today (teal), premarket.
Can't say I've ever seen this before, particularly before a meaningful data print. The 45° of the flow is also 0dd, implying some kind of algo.
This comes after massive SPX call flow day, y'day...
Everywhere I look, it's "0DTE this", "0DTE that" - you can't escape it right now.
You even have the likes of
@JPMorganAM
strategist Marko Kolanovic calling for Volmageddon 2.0 caused by
#0DTE
options.
But to repeat the 2018 VIX ETN blowup requires more complacency in markets☟
@MacroAlf
Market reaction pretty muted so far. Just kinda confirming what we already expected. Seems the volatility in markets will be higher on jobs data prints and FOMC meetings going forward. Inflation is old news, at least for now. That’s until commodities have ripped in Q1!
Haha, if people were really buying that many puts for hedging a crash, I doubt index skew would be in the single digit percentiles! My boy
@spotgamma
debunking the nonsense!
Since last Friday AM SPX expiry, we have not been able to get more than 2% away from the 30Dec 3835 strike that dealers are choking on from JPM. That's the power of the pin! Hard to see what shakes this off in the next week as the gamma gets bigger!
To all those looking to buy VIX down here...
I think the bar for another major VIX spike has been raised because it’s in everyone’s memory now. Risk managers will be forcing people to watch their downside tail risk, which is why skew will stay more elevated than ATM vol. So
Super grateful to see my follower count on this platform go over 20k. I started my mission to lift the lid on
#optionstrading
nearly 6 years ago and we're still going strong!
Thanks to all those who have trusted us with their education and learning journey.
And, a huge thanks
Have you been vigilant with your recent hedging activity?
If so, people like you are partly why
#skew
is catching a bid in US equities markets.
Despite these being protective flows, we feel this leaves a growing potential for a move down with a vol pop.
Here is a breakdown☟☟
This is a great intuitive example of why DELTA does NOT equal the probability of being in the money. When volatility is extremely high (like over 100%) then the distribution of outcomes becomes very positively skewed, because the asset can't drop more than 100% but it could
A redditor that said he stopped reading because he knew I was an idiot when I said the $5 call on this $1 stock has a .50 delta
He basically validated the reason for writing the post and...somehow this was lost on him (it could only be a him)
Another good chat with
@spotgamma
discussing how the VANNA rally from last week may have largely played out and realized vol is likely to drop from here as we head into 17Nov OPEX. Let us know if you agree.
🌐📈 THE MACRO AVENGERS ARE BACK 📉🌍
The Boys Are Back In Town!
With another one of our epic Roundtable Chats with Darius of
@Macro42
, Tony of
@TgMacro
, and Brent of
@spotgamma
You can go watch it right now on YouTube, but if you're curious...
Here are some highlights ☟
Are you tired of not knowing how to leverage the use of options?
I've made it my mission to help you complement your directional strategies with options.
Why options?
To better manage your trades for max profitability & mitigation of risk, just like the PROs.
Let's dig in☟
1/2 Another great moment here between
@spotgamma
and
@42macroDDale
as Brent gets clarification on his read on the MOVE index, rates vol, and what it means for equities.
Keep an eye out for SpotGamma's incoming Macro Service 😂 (FYI, this is a joke - watch the clip 👇)
If you're long the market right now, decent chance you're not feeling too shabby after today closed out.
Now you can sit back, relax, and enjoy this absolute banger of a conversation I had with
@donnelly_brent
.
That's right - Trader Chats is back! ☟☟
The Real Vision Daily Briefing 📊
YoY CPI - 7.9%
@options_insight
joins
@MacroAlf
for a look at the latest economic data, the
#RussiaUkraineCrisis
, price action across markets & how options can help traders benefit from volatility.
LIVE 👇
A quick thread on why we see a 1-2 week correction as likely.
1/ With global stocks ripping into OPEX last Friday, things certainly look a bit overbought. Our strategy compass is clustering most indices in "BUT PUT" territory.
σ The Ultimate Trading Mind Map σ
➠ 3-Part Series
With all the recent market action, we took a little hiatus from this series
But we're back w/our 3rd & final installment.
We touched on Idea Generation, then Risk Management.
Now, on to Trade Implementation & Psychology☟
Wall Street 3.0 is coming to Options Insight's Trader Chats podcast!
You don't want to miss this exclusive chat with
@42macroDDale
,
@MacroAlf
,
@SpotGamma
, and Imran on what to expect heading into Q2
Have anything specific you want to hear discussed? Let us know below!
#fintwit
What better way to end your week than with some Tony Greer (
@TgMacro
)?
Aka, our Captain America.
Tony makes a pretty great case to be bullish on Uranium this year 🚀☟
$VIX back above 15, but fixed strike vol on a near 1% sell off pretty muted (+0.25 vol) for local strikes in Nov-Jan. Nothing to write home about. Makes me think we don't crash imminently. Suggests the street still has GAMMA around here.
As
@jam_croissant
says, this is meant
SPX skew is very steep, but it has been justified by the way vol and spot have been correlated recently. I do think Vol is gonna struggle to perform on the way down from here. Would say if buying protection it needs to be on put spread form. Or speculative put fly would give very
3/ Does the explosion in
#0dte
options flows created a systemic fragility in markets that could lead to Volmageddon 2.0. Find out what
@jam_croissant
thinks...
$NVDA options open interest for Friday expiry is $22Bn. lots of calls between here and 540 strike, with largest at 500. That's a lot of premium that could get burned! My personal take is, if numbers are solid, the stock knee-jerks up to 500 plus but as vol resets lower the
NOBODY feels bad for you when you blow up your trading account
Been there, done that - WILD PnL swings like you can't believe
Early in my career:
🟢Made 7 figures in '08 crisis
🟢Gave it back
🟢Learned from school of hard knocks
But nothing taught me more than today's topic ☟
𝞂 The Anatomy of a Trade Idea 𝞂
Ever wonder how you build and action a specific trading thesis from start to finish?
🚨Then pay attention folks🚨
Time to look at
#Bonds
vs
#Stocks
We'll use $TLT vs $SPY
It's another Options Education long-form tweet coming your way 🐦☟
Introducing our hottest new product, the VOLATILITY DASHBOARD. This is my latest creation at Options Insight where I try to bring all the vol data you need to successfully trade options and volatility. Subscribers and free-trialers will get to test it for free over June.
Are options really that risky? Or do you just not know how to size them properly?
This is a common pushback I get from people about options, saying they are way too risky and you can lose all you money trading them.
A thread...
Snippet from this weekend's options overlay report...
1/ July VIX calls open interest stacking up in the 21 to 23 strike range as June calls rolled off last week.
Fixed strike SPX vol moves showing that options market is really not bothered by the 1.5% correction in SPX this week. Don't get too excited when you see VIX pop a couple of points, it doesn't always mean that much. Options positioning into next week's OPEX looks and feels
Whilst I remain bullish for stocks...
The crash in short interest to multi-year lows makes us a little nervous and reinforces our view that vol/$VIX is likely to bounce from these levels.
Maybe that is wishful thinking so I can buy some June $VIX puts!
The SPX dealer community is choking on GAMMA right now. This can be clearly seen from
@spotgamma
killer new TRACE product.
If you haven't check this out yet, you are missing some serious edge.
Say it with me people.....short GAMMA, long VEGA!
What do we make of this SPX up / VIX up price action this week guys? Realised vol falling off a cliff due to big JPMHQ strike at 5750, but something bubbling under the hood.
IV bid may be reflecting geopolitics, upcoming earnings concerns and US election. Short GAMMA versus
Top of book liquidity cut in half since late July. Not really what you want to see if you're a CTA with a few billion to sell below 4400 on SPX! Stay Nimble.
💣 Time to drop some knowledge bombs! 🤯
As a seasoned discretionary trader, let me break down for you the Differences Between Systematic and Discretionary Trading.
Whether you're experienced or not...
Get ready for real-life examples and some profound truths!
#Trading101
☟
I couldn't help myself, finally started buying some skew on SPX, not brave enough sell calls yet, but those downside puts at 3400 look value! Buy protection when you can, NOT when you have to...
With VIX1D so low relative to VIX, this indicates that the vol supply is primarily 0DTE options whereas there may be some demand still in 1-month vol. Doesn't bode well for realized vol, which is probably headed south without a major shock from PCE inflation tomorrow.
If I
This term structure chart from
@spotgamma
shows that front end SPX vol is lower than normal.
I put this down to Easter seasonality and the fact that FOMC de-risked some of the upcoming macro data by implicitly showing tolerance to above target inflation for the rest of the
What do we make of this SPX up / VIX up price action this week guys? Realised vol falling off a cliff due to big JPMHQ strike at 5750, but something bubbling under the hood.
IV bid may be reflecting geopolitics, upcoming earnings concerns and US election. Short GAMMA versus
Two of the smartest macro guys on the street
@JulianMI2
and
@42macroDDale
both agree that inflation likely doesn’t peak until later this year. 10Y US Yield may have another stab at 3.50% before this is over. Mind your FOMO tech exposures...
VIX 1-month beta has turned positive! That is highly unusual and only the type of action we used to see in Asian indices that went parabolic (think NKY recently). What does it mean?