🧵
🎉Unveiling a new podcast on A R Rahman!🎉
My classical-flautist-brother Swaroop (
@TnagarTornado
) and I sat down to go over
@arrahman
's iconic discography, one year at a time!
We start in 1992, when Indian film music changed forever.
Link:
The BJP won the 2019 parliamentary elections in India: but was it ALL fair and square?
This astonishing new working paper by
@sabya_economist
provides scientific evidence that suggests vote(r) manipulation by BJP.
And no, this is NOT about EVMs.
Thread🧵
The communal poison has flooded our drawing rooms.
Conversations with mostly doctors in coastal Karnataka over the past week 👇🏽
Doctor 1: Our hospital is next to "mini-Pakistan." Always riots. Every time "those people" get bored, they toss a stone at a bus. What a nightmare.
The banality of it all is frightening.
India is burning and we sit in our drawing rooms, popping peanuts and cheering on the arsonists, occasionally pausing to peer into our phones, gaining gyaan - and fuel - from WhatsApp University.
My book 'Last Among Equals: Power, Caste & Politics in Bihar's Villages' is out!
It features scheming politicians & dogged resistance, dashed hopes & persistent idealism, violence & laughter, from 9+ yrs of my fieldwork + data + research
Order here
🧵⬇️
1. Was Bradman really bowled by a googly in his last knock?
Many cricket lovers know these 3 facts:
(a) Bradman needed 4 runs from his last innings to finish with a test batting career average of 100
(b) He was out for zero
(c) He was bowled by an Eric Hollies googly
(ii) constituency-wise number of votes counted in EVMs.
The problem? These lists did not match each other.
When the media pointed this out, the first list was deleted!
Evidence
#3
: Voter rolls are manipulated
Das shows that the growth rate in voters between 2014-19 is smaller in constituencies where BJP narrowly wins.
So - names are being deleted.
Q: Whose?
Analysis of names of voters in the voter rolls suggests that these are Muslim names
Now, for the evidence:
Evidence
#1
: Close Elections
The BJP wins a disproportionate number of “close” elections in 2019. Close polls are basically a toss-up: if parties put in equal effort, there is no reason one party wins more such polls than others. Somehow BJP wins more.
@sabya_economist
painstakingly combines lots of varied datasets:
Election results from 1977-2019, EVM turnout data for 2019, Voter rolls (including name classifiers), National election surveys, data on counting observers.
Each of these is hard to put together.
See, for ex:
Two explanations for this:
(a) Precise control: BJP knows what elections are going to be close and works harder there.
This is plausible and has been shown to be at work in other contexts.
(b) Electoral Manipulation: Party manipulates voter rolls, votes polled.
The Panchayat - the institution, not the Amazon Prime show – has existed in some form across India for over 2000 years!
What’s stayed the same? What’s changed? How do we look ahead?
Short thread on some themes from our review paper👇🏾
@siddyg88
@bijurao
Das accesses both lists and calculates discrepancies between these two turnout data.
And voila! The discrepancy jumps weirdly in places where the BJP wins by a close margin. Data revision occurs mainly in BJP states.
Remarkably, there is no evidence of this occurring for the congress in 2019.
Or, for that matter, the BJP or Congress in previous general elections or concurrently held assembly elections.
Also, Muslims are especially vulnerable. The 2024 elections are around the corner, with the BJP perhaps on a weaker footing (more close races?)
The need is to be vigilant: parties, civil society organisations, courts and the ECI should strategise to curb manipulation.
However, this is a cause for serious concern for anyone invested in electoral democracy in India. No one piece of evidence cited above may be enough to cause concern, but taken together - this should make us sit up and worry.
As Das says:
Evidence
#4
: Turnout Manipulation
You can delete voters or just delete/change their votes!
Some history: After the 2019 polls, the Election Commission of India put out two separate lists of vote counts:
i) constituency wise “final” EVM count of votes polled across candidates
Evidence
#2
: This is not precise control
The National Election Survey (NES) of 2019 that has micro data on election campaigning does not suggest that BJP campaigned more in places where they won by a close margin! Citizens do not say they were visited by a party worker/candidate.
(7)
Me: What about alarming unemployment levels, persistent low GDP growth, a non-existent public healthcare system?
Doctor 1: '...' (no words)
Doctor 2: '...'
Doctor 3: '...'
Doctor 5: '...'
Evidence
#5
: Manipulation is local at the booth level
4 pieces of additional evidence:
(i) Manipulation occurs when constituencies have a high share of observers who are state civil service (SCS) officers from BJP-ruled states.
SCS, unlike IAS, may be more pliable.
To those who will invariably argue that this has always happened: the paper shows evidence to suggest that it has not, at least not in this manner.
And second, just because fraud has occurred previously shouldn’t distract from preventing fraud now.
(iii) These booths are also places where the Benford’s law is violated (see Wiki)
(iv) Where BJP wins by a close margin, the unusually high turnout occurs precisely in constituencies with large Muslim shares. Again, evidence of something fishy going on
Overall, Das argues that his calculations suggest BJP gained about 11 additional seats by these types of manipulation (range: 9-18).
These are back-of-the-envelope calculations.
This is NOT enough to change government formation. BJP won very comfortably in 2019.
Finally, more details - and MUCH MORE rigorous evidence than I can fit into this thread -- is in Das' excellent paper. Read it.
(And his other work too! He is an economist whose work on political economy of development mixes theory + empirical data brilliantly.)
The National Family Health Survey remains among the few credible publicly conducted pan-Indian surveys. (NSS last accepted "thick round" survey was in 2011). This systematic dismantling of existing data systems ensures WhatsApp University prevails.
(1/2)
(2)
Doctor 2: 'You're working on local taxation in Karnataka? Why don't you study why the Muslims don't pay taxes?'
Me: 'Don't they?'
Dr: 'There are ten Muslim families in our building. They have been told not to pay taxes.'
Me: 'By whom?'
Dr: 'By their leaders.'
(Contd 👇🏽)
Me: 'Why would their leaders say that?'
Dr: 'Because they know Hindu Rashtra is coming in 2024.'
Me: 'Wow - that's so sad. Isn't Hindu Rashtra a bad thing?'
Genuine bewilderment. Then the good doctor asks:
'Why?'
Over the past few years, we have seen claims that the party in power indulges in electoral fraud mainly via manipulating EVMs.
But this paper shows that fraud occurs even if you don’t believe the EVM manipulation story!
(3)
Driving through the western ghats:
Me: 'Quite a few monkeys where the cars are parked at these view-points.'
Driver: 'Poor things, they want food. The Muslims come and pluck all the fruits meant for them.'
(6)
Me: Who can question the PM/HM even within the BJP?
Dr 5: All great leaders are autocrats. That is OK. Think of history, when kings ruled. How did they come to power? Killed all competitors. This is just the modern version of that. The REAL problem is the Congress party ..
(4)
My mother: 'This Arnab (Goswami) is such a joke - shouting all the time.'
Doctor 2's wife: 'But these Muslim clerics need to be shouted at!'
(Everybody watches night-time news TV!)
In today's Hindustan Times, I argue that Bihar's proposed caste census presents an opportunity to do much more than merely count jatis and how the government could do no worse than look at the Socioeconomic caste census of 2011-12 as a template to build on.
@HindustanTimes
Thread:
Here's one reading of the development story of Bihar in the recent Nitish years, told through the lens of local government and politics.
We begin (see image) with Mr Kamal Manjhi of Darbhanga, an elected rural ward member:
See link for more:
(5)
Doctor 2: 'What did Nupur say that was so bad?'
Doctor 3: 'What did Nupur say - she only said what was in the Koran?'
Doctor 4: 'Poor Nupur - no one in India cares about her.'
I am looking for an RA to work on multiple exciting (at least to me) early-stage and ongoing research projects in India. If you know anyone who may be interested -- and if you are yourself so inclined -- please do pass on/apply. Form below:
#EconTwitter
(1/n)
How can one be forced to vacate an MLA seat?
By FAKING BOARDING PASSES worth 23 lakhs and getting Rajya Sabha to pay! That’s what Kurhani sitting MLA, Anil Sahni did.
Now, there is a by-election. In 10 days.
And Sanjay Sahni - friend, activist - is contesting again!
📢📢 We are hiring!!📢📢
Come join me and
@nandinigupta88
on exciting policy-research work based out of Bihar!
Apply for:
1. Research Associate:
2. Policy Associate:
Details 👇🏾
Thread:
Here's one reading of the development story of Bihar in the recent Nitish years, told through the lens of local government and politics.
We begin (see image) with Mr Kamal Manjhi of Darbhanga, an elected rural ward member:
See link for more:
Overjoyed by this rave review of Last among Equals @ Hindu Literary Review:
"The writing is witty & poignant, the scholarship is deep & the style is eminently readable."
(All the more special that it's by
@amitbasole
, whose work I greatly admire and always keep abreast of.)
An (edited) extract of the Introduction to our work is carried in the
@ThePrintIndia
We study how Bihar's superbly designed Grievance Redressal System allows Dalit local politicians to effectively overcome caste biases in government and deliver public goods to their constituents
Caste differences in govt bodies affect how lower castes get public services: Study
PhD scholar at Harvard University M.R. Sharan
@sharanidli
& PhD scholar at University of Chicago Chinmaya Kumar
@Chinmayak
write
#EconTwitter
A summary of my Job Market Paper titled "Something to Complain About: How Minority Representatives Overcome Ethnic Differences"
(Co-authored with
@Chinmayak
)
You'd have to get all the way to end of this superb discussion on "Economics with a Moral
Compass" featuring Besley, Deaton and Sen to get to this hilarious story featuring THE economist-moralist of our times, Jean Dreze:
📢📢
We are hiring!
Join Sid George (
@siddyg88
), Sid Hari, Apurva Bamezai + me on an ongoing large, exciting Bihar-based project on local governance!
Apply here:
Details 👇🏾
PDF:
@econ_ra
#EconTwitter
#PoliSciTwitter
(1)
Why do so many young, talented youth spend their 20s studying for govt jobs?
What role does luck play in competitive exams?
Do multiple attempts hurt?
What's the ideal exam question?
This is a truly extraordinary document - a careful investigation, a labour of love.
For the past 5 years, I've been working with the Tamil Nadu Public Service Commission to better understand the connections between public sector recruitment and the labor market.
Today, I'm happy to launch a report that summarizes my main findings:
1/4
(1/2)
📢📢We are hiring MORE!
Come work with Niharika Singh (
@nihasingh06
) and me on an exciting Bihar-based project on worker collective action!
Apply here:
@econ_ra
Pdf with all details here: …
#EconTwitter
#PoliSciTwitte
@soham_pablo
I grew up on the coast and have spent a lot of my life living among doctors. In my lifetime - and in the past few years - I have seen these conversations go from being one of the many things to discuss to dominating every single interaction. This is a thread that reflects that.
This week, the Bihar High Court is deciding on whether the government should be allowed to conduct a caste census.
@TnagarTornado
and I argue that the opposition to the census stands on weak legal grounds.
@IndianExpress
In today's HT, I argue that:
(a) in these data-scarce times, state-govt run caste censuses can help fill important gaps in the understanding of our country
(b) this is true only if the data is any good + used effectively
(c) the worries regarding such exercises are exaggerated
With 2 weeks left for the Bihar elections, here are Jean Dreze and co., writing directly from Muzaffarpur about the "epic" campaign Sanjay Sahni and his team of mazdoors are fashioning.
"Money is short for everything, from printing to transport to even phone calls!"
Our work suggests that Bihar had over 3,00,000 excess deaths in the second wave alone.
@muradbanaji
documents our results and places them in context in the thread below:
A small survey in Bihar found a huge surge in mortality during the second COVID-19 wave.
During April 1 to mid-June, 2021, the death rate in the 503 households surveyed was around four times normal (95% CI: 2.2x to 6.4x normal). (1/n)
Honoured that the 1st book launch for Last Among Equals was
@ADRIPatna
that has been a big part of my Bihar journey. The event was presided over by the erudite Mr. Tripurari Sharan, Chief Secy, Gov of Bihar. Excellent, tough questions from a v knowledgeable audience!
(A thread)
With no clarity on the future of my (amazing) publishers
@WestlandBooks
, here's a final appeal to you all to buy and read my book before it is withdrawn from bookstores in 2 WEEKS!
Order as many copies as you can!
RT Please!
Excited to welcome our new 2020-21 CGD post-doc,
@sharanidli
. Check out his research on minority political representation, female leaders, and affirmative action.
(1/2):
What do India's impossibly ambitious 5-yr-plans have to do with cementing democracy?
How did India get her first computers?
How did Nehru and the Bharat Sadhu Samaj become the strangest of bedfellows?
What did P C Mahalanobis see when he peeked behind the Iron Curtain?
Known Utkarsh for nearly half my life now! His + partner Kotia's fight for marriage equality in the Supreme Court is brave, admirable & a source of deep pride, joy.
Back in college, Utkarsh was our best debater and astonishingly eloquent: this BBC clip shows he's still got it!
“If it’s a judgement of the Supreme Court then the Government has to follow suit”
Lawyer Utkarsh Saxena says same-sex marriage if successful in the Supreme Court won’t have to go back to Parliament to be law
#Newsnight
|
Lovely to see this pic (received via
@bijurao
) from earlier this week. Pic by Sabin Ninglekhu (in Nepal). Something poetic about seeing a book that mainly draws from field research being a field companion itself :)
The Policy Associate (PA) role focuses on converting research to policy insights.
We have a separate Google form for that role (and the link in the quoted tweet below is incorrect).
Apply on this link below!
Form:
📢📢 We are hiring!!📢📢
Come join me and
@nandinigupta88
on exciting policy-research work based out of Bihar!
Apply for:
1. Research Associate:
2. Policy Associate:
Details 👇🏾
I am all done with my first semester teaching!
Now is a good time for those recurring dreams of never managing to find the exam hall/having the wrong "hall ticket"/studying for the wrong exam to stop.
Deeply indebted to my incredibly, insanely supportive -- and brilliant -- set of advisers, three of whom are on this platform and one whose fake avatar was killed just before I could tag him:
@raogautam
,
@aikhwaja
,
@emilybreza
and Abhijit Banerjee.
[THREAD] Westland (
@WestlandBooks
) is ending. Sold by Amazon. I have mourned this all day, but here, let me celebrate them and their work.
As their author, I got to meet some incredible people at - and through - Westland.
A short appreciation thread.
Last Among Equals - with a brand new cover on a second print run- is BACK in bookstores this week! Grateful to all who read/engaged/critiqued: didn't expect a book on Bihar's villages to find such a broad readership. Thank you
@kan_writersside
@WestlandBooks
@ajithags
@karthikavk
Bihar caste survey: What has the caste landscape of Bihar been like historically? What are the survey results' political implications?
@sharanidli
, Asst. Professor at the University of Maryland, explains.
#ExpressExplained
Shocking. A truly remarkable economist, we revisited his "Clientelism In Indian Villages", a one-of-a-kind paper on Maratha landlords (Anderson et al.,AER, 2015) just this morning in my grad PE class. The dev econ community - and particularly we who work on India - will miss him.
RIP Ashok Kotwal, development economist off the beaten track. His sterling work as editor-in-chief of Ideas of India enabled many eminent scholars and budding researchers to contribute to public policy and debate. We shall miss him.
Thread 👇🏽
How is India's ambitious 3-decade long tryst with local governance going?
This edition of Seminar - helmed by
@rahul_tverma
- takes stock.
Spent the afternoon reading the excellent collection. Below, some quick themes that emerge repeatedly:
30 years after 73rd & 74th constitutional amendments
March 2023 issue of Seminar is a collection of essays to access the impact of local governance in India, both urban and rural.
Access entire issue here:
Thread: 1/4 Seminar March 23
The World Bank Development Impact blog carries a summary of my job market paper (co-authored with
@Chinmayak
) on how low caste local representatives use Bihar's formal complaints system to overcome caste biases in government and deliver public goods.
@deepak_malghan
@sabya_economist
Agree that MAUP could play a role - but vote manipulation by polling officers affecting minorities has been shown before, including by Neggers (2018).
Incredible to think that someone I've grown up watching on TV (I mean, who can forget: "Sreenivasan Jain, Star News") is now tweeting about reading Last Among Equals!
@SreenivasanJain
(In bookstores/online: )
Primary research in development economics is impossible without a great field research team: I have been privileged to work with the most dedicated, thoughtful young women and men in Patna and beyond.
Udta Bihar. Drug use is rising in Bihar (as has been bootleggong). Prohibition and the fallout of the pandemic are proximate causes. But a broken education system, an acute jobs crisis and stalling growth are structural factors that need urgent fixing. Great piece
@jyotiyadaav
!
'Ever since the
#NitishKumar
-led Janata Dal (United) government banned liquor in 2016, drug use has gone up among young Biharis.'
_ Jyoti Yadav
#Bihar
@cblatts
@mushfiq_econ
As someone who ticked all (but one) of the boxes on this (ran field projects in villages while at Harvard) - can say nobody worked for free, kids didn't follow me around, headman didn't offer juice + schools functioned as usual
The magic ticket may be your winning personality ;)
(1/3) A group of us close friends, all from the Delhi School of Economics, have launched this fundraiser specifically focused on the poor and the vulnerable in villages. Do contribute!
20. I leave you with one tantalizing thought. Bradman was bowled off Hollies ten days earlier in a tour game. Robertson Glasgow reported that to be a googly too.
Could the greatest batsman of all time be fooled by the same ball off the same (journeyman) bowler twice in ten days?
@mushfiq_econ
Mushfiq - Sabya and I debated writing about this publicly (here) for days now. He was sure he wanted this read broadly.
He is a superb economist and an even braver man.
Across India, governments will announce relief packages for the poor, combining massive increases in in-kind transfers -- especially rations, which should, in my opinion, form the backbone of any such measure -- with attempts to put money in the hands of people.
2. Like everyone else, I unquestioningly accepted this as the truth. Until, I chanced upon this video on YouTube put out by the Bradman Museum (
@BradmanBowral
):
(Thread) Excerpts from my book are out now!
1.
@ThePrintIndia
extracts a portion of Ch 2 that describes scenes from a prematurely concluded Gram Sabha in 2012. The broader chapter, not included here, contrasts this with writings by
@bijurao
,
@RajeshVeeraa
Caught the terrific, harrowing While We Watched, a film on the remarkable
@ravishndtv
.
As
@kalraghunathan
writes:
"[It] leaves [us] not with a sense of hope ... but with a lingering helplessness ... a feeling that we have gone too far to wind this back."
Glad this piece on Bihar's historic caste census is out in
@TheIndiaForum
. I argue that the census could change politics, policy discourse in Bihar and offer lessons for how to think about similar exercises across the country.
Thanks for all the help/feedback/eidts,
@CheriChe
!
"Bihar's caste census can offer new insights into the endurance of caste's links with occupation and economic status. Conducted properly, it has the potential to empower residents and deepen democracy." By
@sharanidli
#caste
#CasteCensus
@TheIndiaForum
As the country I reside in -- and many in the wider world -- wait with bated breath for counting to end in the world's oldest democracy, here's a picture from the world's largest that marks the end of a truly breathtaking campaign.
Thank you everyone for all your support!
Kurhani goes to vote today. Final phase of voting in
#BiharElections2020
. Thank you to everyone who made Sanjay Sahni’s campaign possible. Democracy has been given a real chance!
(1) Cricket's recently seen an explosion of TERRIFIC data-based analysis, but some questions
@ABdeVilliers17
raises here are 👌
Analysts often mistake correlation for causation, completeness for universality, absence of evidence for evidence of absence + ignore spillovers 👇
Listening to John McEnroe commentating in the Djoko/Hurkacz game. Love how he questions stats! Saying “who are these people?? Who are “they” we’re talking about here?” I have a very similar view! How are these people telling us how valuable a player is? Or what the win percentage
6. Now check out these two for Ball 2, the purported googly, but actually, just a normal off-spinner!
A googly is bowled from the back of the hand, just like we saw in image 1. That is central to the deception embedded in it.
These images shows a ball bowled from the front!
4. Now, focus on Hollies, blessed as he is with an inelegant bowling action. He launches into it as though a flea has sneaked up his pants and he's too old to really bother.
But, focus on his wrists.
Ball one: Leg-spin. Yes.
Ball two: OFF-spin! NOT googly.
If there is one explainer you want to read about the controversy surrounding TM Krishna's Sangita Kalanidhi award, then it is this one by Swaroop (
@TnagarTornado
).