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Rahul Verma Profile
Rahul Verma

@rahul_tverma

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Fellow @CPR_India (), Visiting Asst. Prof @AshokaUniv . Researches power & parties. Election Junkie. Loves Cricket & 90s bollywood songs.

Delhi/ Lucknow
Joined May 2018
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
6 years
Does Ideology matter in Indian politics? In our new book, Pradeep Chhibber & I challenge the dominant view that Indian politics is based on social cleavages & devoid of ideas. We show that Ideological divisions have shaped party politics since independence. 1/11
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
6 years
Results from #Karnatakabypolls confirm few things: 1. Congress-JDS a formidable alliance 2. With UP & Maha likely to see state-level alliances against the BJP, Modi needs a solid national narrative to cover up 3. Big Q: can Congress standup to the challenge in bi-polar states?
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Rahul Verma
5 years
The late surge in turnout is a MYTH - 1. Largely a reporting error, the gap across time intervals same 2. Good pollsters revise estimates & include late voter. Most likely consolidate winner - hawa 3. Late voters are more likely to be poor. #DelhiElections #DelhiPolls2020
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Rahul Verma
3 years
BJP wins 65 of 74 Zilla panchayat president in UP In this piece, I write on the political economy of rural body elections. - 1/4 seats are won unopposed - ruling party wins 90% of seats - relatives of MP, MLA win most seats - 5-10 cr is spent
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
1 year
Introduction of CSAT in 2011 has completely changed the profile of India's civil service recruits @NishantTISS 1. Decline in no of successful candidates from Hindi Medium, English gains 2. Decline in Humanities, more Engineers 3. More successful with just Bachelors degree
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Rahul Verma
5 years
Who are the new #BJP voters & what motivates their choice? Pradeep Chhibber & I in our @StudiesIndian paper use @LoknitiCSDS survey and find that a new kind of ethnopolitical majoritarianism now binds BJP. This is distinct from the old Hindu Nationalist plank. Thread (1/5)
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Rahul Verma
3 years
Hauz Khas on a cloudy sunday
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Rahul Verma
4 years
What is Modi-Shah doctrine? And where does it come from? Will it help or harm BJP? Bypassing major social forces erodes political legitimacy & can quickly escalate to become electorally costly. The BJP must start building bridges & minimise backlash.
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
2 years
BJP Stable, AAP rises - AAP's national traction now ~7%, higher in North-West, Tier 1 & 2 cities - preference over AAP as new national alternative than revitalised Congress @vaibhavparik28 & I look at the latest @YouGov - @livemint - @CPR_India survey:
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
5 years
A thread on #LokSabhaElection2019 (1/4) Is it a wave election or silent voters would surprise us? @BDUTT : a typical Indian election is usually about varied opinions, debate, disagreement & passionate advocacy
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
5 years
Three generation of RS 100
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
1 year
24 conversations in the run-up to 2024 elections July 6 -- Pradeep Chhibber & @sardesairajdeep July 18 -- @sanjaycsds & @GillesVerniers July 27 -- @MukulikaB & Irfan Nooruddin @CPR_India we hope this series unmasks complexities of Indian elections. More details soon.
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
2 years
30 years after 73rd & 74th constitutional amendments March 2023 issue of Seminar is a collection of essays to access the impact of local governance in India, both urban and rural. Access entire issue here: Thread: 1/4 Seminar March 23
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Rahul Verma
4 years
Why LDF victory in Kerala can turn out to be good news for the BJP? The decline of Congress, in the long run, will mean that both the LDF and UDF will be diminished, leaving the space wide open for the growth of the BJP.
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Rahul Verma
4 years
History Trivia on West Bengal In 2011, incumbent CM Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee lost Jadavpur AC to his former aide Manish Gupta. Jadavpur was a CPM bastion since 1967 & Bhattacharjee had continuously won the seat since 1987 ... so anything can happen in Nandigram.
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Rahul Verma
3 years
It is almost the end of the semester & I got to use my Ashoka University office for the first time. What a stunning view !!
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Rahul Verma
4 years
Female electors are slowly & silently reshaping India's political arena - increased participation, more voice - maybe deciding factor in WB & Kerala this time - men remain conservative on gender norms, BJP leaning women too Link:
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Rahul Verma
4 years
Strategic Defection in West Bengal Most TMC politicians defecting to #BJP are from western districts -- Medinipur, Purulia, Barddhaman Look at the #Bengal results from 2019/ 2014 & where Shah is concentrating to give #BengalSupportsBJP final push. Will this strategy work?
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Rahul Verma
4 months
What Exit polls got right & wrong? - kerala, TN, Gujarat, MP, Chattisgarh, Assam, Jharkhand on expected line - Karnataka, Bihar, Odisha, AP, Telengana, Delhi in the direction how pollsters predicted - UP, Maharashtra, WB - three largest state with 160 seats - horribly wrong
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
4 years
Mamata’s deep desire to decimate the Left though brought her short-term benefits, but also created the conditions for the BJP’s rise in Bengal. My column on how the electoral map of India’s eastern seaboard is likely to change from hereon -
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Rahul Verma
2 years
Would you like to work with a Member of Parliament (MP)? LAMP Fellowship is the best place to learn about Parliament, policy, and politics. Deadline: 29 Dec. Details:
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
5 years
How #Modi won India in 2019? An exciting panel to discuss @sardesairajdeep 's book on India's 2019 elections -- @_YogendraYadav @asadowaisi @MahuaMoitra @Jairam_Ramesh @PandaJay & @rautsanjay61 6:00 pm TODAY at Nehru Memorial
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
1 year
Female MPs in Indian Parliament Interesting data from @ShamikaRavi showing female MPs focus on healthcare, education, roads, and micro, small, and MSMEs; whereas male MPs mostly focus on finance, defence, external affairs, PMO etc.
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
3 years
I wanted to do lots of great things, but politics came in between - gist of most former IAS memoirs while incentive structure (Or political interference) are important factors, the reason for current malaise is more to do with the nature of power bestowed with elite bureaucracy
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Rahul Verma
3 years
5 suggestions for Indian political parties by @sardesairajdeep 1. introduce term limits for MP-MLA 2. rotate party leadership 3. one-person-one post 4. at least half election tickets below 50 yrs 5. create a political mentorship structure
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Rahul Verma
10 months
How Ideology Shapes Indian Politics @Nicholas_Haas_1 & @RMajumdar_ makes a persuasive case for mass opinions on ideology - high correlation b/w liking BJP & support for cultural issues - Congress base has no identifiable ideological positions. Link:
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Rahul Verma
2 years
At CPR, we remain committed to our institutional purpose. In our small ways, we make efforts to contribute to India's growth and prosperity.
@CPR_India
CPR India
2 years
A Statement
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Rahul Verma
4 months
Five Hypotheses on Women Vote lets not reduce to women vote to welfare alone: there are competing hypotheses & state-level variations, among others. interests, identities, ideology, leaders, mobilisation - all matters my piece for @timesofindia :
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
10 months
Why Congress Lost? I've made an attempt to understand it. Don't know if I have an answer. Look forward to suggestions & feedback. Link:
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Rahul Verma
3 years
Can Akhilesh Yadav unseat Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh? @vaibhavparik28 & I estimated 4 different models to understand what would it take for the SP to mount a significant challenge and unseat the BJP. Link:
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Rahul Verma
10 months
Its Noon #ElectionResults - I dint expect BJP doing so well in the Hindi belt. What helped BJP sweep? - Why Cong failed so badly? The road to 2024 over for Cong & allies now? - Election results always humble me. How Indians vote will keep me fascinated !!
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
3 years
The emerging national political party system Can India's GoP save itself from the raw national ambitions of AAP & TMC? What will be the effects of 3 competitors for the second spot? I add to the discussion by @sardesairajdeep -
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Rahul Verma
3 years
The Festival of Democracy Voted today in my village
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
2 years
We are hiring !! the Politics Initiative @CPR_India is looking for a senior research associate with .. - deep interest in politics - excellent writing skills - manage research team Deadline: 30th Dec Details: Google form:
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Rahul Verma
5 years
Lesson from Australia #ExitPolls 1. Exit Polls can wrong in CLOSE contest, less likely in LANDSLIDES 2. Australia has a preferential voting system, even harder than FPTP to forecast seat. 3. The direction of #exitpollresults for #LokSabhaElections2019 is unlikely to flip.
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
1 year
English-speaking engineering graduate from small towns is the new face of IAS, @AiyarYamini & @K_Rahul_Sharma make a strong case for re-orienting the training progs. See this excellent analysis on the changing profile of Civil Services by @NishantTISS -
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Rahul Verma
2 years
The Rise of Political Consultants in India very imp. paper by Ajit Phadnis describing 4 key questions: reasons for growth, type of firms & actors, range of services & evolution within industry overtime.
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
3 years
The Congress without Gandhis In a very balanced assessment of Rahul Gandhi, @sardesairajdeep bluntly asks RG to quickly decide - 24*7 power politics or more academic universe of ideas?
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Rahul Verma
2 years
New findings on bureaucratic transfer in India bureaucrats have strong transfer preferences and regularly lobby to avoid being placed in jurisdictions far away from their homes/ current locations. And this leads to uneven state presence -
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
10 months
LAMP Fellowship 2024-25 If you are interested to learn about parliament, policy, and politics, do apply for this fellowship. One of the few opportunities in India to work with a Member of Parliament (MP) Deadline: December 23, 2023 Link to apply:
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Rahul Verma
1 year
Dalits in the New Millennium our collaborative volume interrogates the major aspects of Dalit experience, and holistically examines the changes that have taken place in the last three decades. Co-edited with Sudha Pai & Shyam Babu Details: Thread 1/7
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Rahul Verma
4 years
4 BIG takeaways from #BiharExitPolls -all pollsters put MGB ahead even in case of hung -RJD to emerge single largest, Tejaswi emerges from shadows -anger, fatigue & anti-incumbency Nitish Kumar, Modi magic fails to pull NDA -except Left, smaller parties fail to register
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Rahul Verma
9 months
The reasons given challenge the very basis of what role policy research institutes should play. We’ll continue to hope that our constitutional gurantees are honoured.
@CPR_India
CPR India
9 months
Statement
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Rahul Verma
5 years
#AskCPR is a new interactive series where @CPR_India researchers will think with you about the questions that matter. Please share it @RamaNewDelhi @MilanV @Roshanjnu @DilliDurAst @HT_Ed @nistula @YRDeshmukh @sardesairajdeep @asadowaisi @Profdilipmandal
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Rahul Verma
5 years
In two hours, we'll be bombarded with #ExitPolls of all sorts. Channels will make huge claims about sample size, accuracy, etc Seminar issue of August 2016 on the state of election polling in India & beyond as cheat sheet. (1/n) Open Access here -
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Rahul Verma
3 years
Who supports authoritarian/ undemocratic attitudes in India? @ankita_barthwal & I look at the latest round of @livemint - @YouGov - @CPR_India survey to find undemocratic attitudes is driven by strong partisans on both sides. Link:
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Rahul Verma
2 years
Caste diversity in India’s elite research institutes @Ankur_pali 's data collection efforts shows that the field is not equal at any stage and privileged groups still dominate in all fields of higher education Link:
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
5 years
How India Voted in 2019 Extremely delighted to share that Seminar magazine has ungated all the essays. We look forward to your comments. Please use this link -
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
2 years
Thinker or Specialists? Putting philosophy back in doctor of philosophy
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
4 years
Indian bureaucracy likes to believe that it has no vested interest and only serves in the national interest, whereas other actors – politicians, scientists, bankers, economists, academics, activists, etc. – favour particular interests.
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Rahul Verma
4 months
How the Congress can build from here on? very thoughtful piece @AsimAli6 on what not & ought to be done: - realise the limits of mobilisation via charsima & centralise decision-making - focus on state-by-state campaign narrative & organisational revamping
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Rahul Verma
4 years
The Future of Regional Parties & Federalism in India 3 important changes in these parties over the last decade - generational transition - fragmentation of social base - a systematic undermining of political economy base
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Rahul Verma
8 months
BJP broadens its base, voters skeptical of opposition alliance Melvin & I look at the latest @YouGov - @livemint - @CPR_India Millennial survey - High approval of Modi's both terms - Satisfaction with Govt. on key issues Sample: 12k+, 203 cities Link:
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Rahul Verma
3 years
Why did the BJP perform far below its own expectations in West Bengal? - overestimated polarisation effect, anti-incumbency sentiment, TMC rebels, Left-Cong-ISF - underestimated Mamta's popularity, party organisation, welfare schemes Our take - (1/2)
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Rahul Verma
1 year
Reimagining Dalit Identity & Experience Prof. Vidhu Verma: " ... the volume carries greater heft, in part because its publication comes at a critical moment ... " : more about "Dalits in the New Millennium" on this thread:
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Rahul Verma
4 years
Academic Nepotism & the tragic decline of Indian universities Prof. Dinesh Singh, former VC of Delhi University, in a scathing piece highlights the malaise of severe academic inbreeding in most older Indian universities ...
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Rahul Verma
1 year
Social profile of Chief Ministers since Independence - 2/3rd of CMs from upper castes - very few SC and ST CMs (data covers only large states) - OBCs share among CMs rise post-1990s - IMHO it would be useful to separate dominant castes from OBCs Good work @NishantTISS !!
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
5 years
How India Voted 2019 Excited that the August issue of Seminar magazine will be on stands tomorrow. Please do get you copies from nearest bookshops/ newspaper stands. We have made an attempt to understand the verdict from various angles (1/n)
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Rahul Verma
4 years
The rise of Modi & its implications for Indian politics very happy to see the set of 6 essays in @epw_in curated by @ronojoy_sen & @diegoemme with contributions from @PalshikarSuhas KC Suri @NeelanjanSircar James Manor @AsimAli6 & myself.
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
2 years
Massive Increase in No. of Pucca Houses urban India jumps from 52 ->68, and rural from 18->41 very imp. data story by @CPR_India colleagues @samridhi_ag & @shamichirps
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Rahul Verma
6 months
Why BSP is missing in UP's electoral contest? BSP is likely to shrink further. Its decline has lessons for parties organised around a single issue, are family-controlled, and rely on a limited social base. I write for @htTweets :
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Rahul Verma
2 years
As the semester begins, two friends gossiping over chai after a long day of teaching !!
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Rahul Verma
3 years
How Elections are won & lost in India sharing 4 pieces I wrote for @htTweets @HT_Ed in the run-up to polls -- voters choose parties, issue mention is just rationalisation accumulated sentiments on 5 factors matter waves & silent voters can only be realised post-result
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Rahul Verma
4 years
Why Indian Secularism failed? @_YogendraYadav as always concise & thoughtful: Today is the right day to begin a new journey, to rediscover the lost language of religious tolerance, to reconstruct Hinduism, to reclaim a future for our republic. #Ayodhya
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Rahul Verma
8 months
BJP base has increased, but not support on key issues - High approval ratings, but economy achilles heel, low support for ONOE - Opposition voters skeptical of alliance? Part 1: Part 2: Next week Part 3-5 of the survey
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Rahul Verma
1 year
At CPR, we remain committed to our foundational objective of conducting high quality research that strengthenes Indian Democracy !!
@AiyarYamini
Yamini Aiyar
1 year
A statement
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Rahul Verma
3 years
On electoral revival of the Congress Party In a yearend piece for Sunday TOI, I write on how 2022 could be one of the best years for the party in almost a decade. This is historic week for the party - Congress was formed on 28 Dec 1885 & Cong (I) on 2 Jan 1978
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Rahul Verma
2 years
Do political parties in India care about their election manifestos? How have manifestos evolved since 1952? I'll be making a brief presentation based on findings from @CPR_India 's India Manifesto Project at 4:00 pm Please join us at the #CPRDialogues2022 !!
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Rahul Verma
4 years
We are hiring !! Please share among friends who are looking for full-time work as Research Associates. State Capacity initiative @CPR_India focuses on addressing the challenges of 21st century Indian state. Deadline: March 21, 2021 More details:
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Rahul Verma
3 years
How the RSS is reshaping Indian Democracy? @CPR_India - @TCPD_Ashoka is delighted to host @poetbadri 's book "Republic of Hindutva" with @_sabanaqvi , @vargheseKgeorge , @ProfAmitAhuja & @gilkumar Thursday, April 15, 5:00 pm IST Zoom Registration:
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Rahul Verma
4 months
2024 verdict breaks 7 myths about Congress?
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
3 years
What explains the structural decline of Congress party? Can it revive? I learnt a great deal from @amitvarma in this conversation about my forthcoming work with @AsimAli6 !! please do listen. would really appreciate feedback/comments.
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Rahul Verma
2 years
President & V-P Office is being reimagined - the two offices have been de-linked - the message on nominations targeting multiple constituencies at the same time - the public is being mobilised in making of new Republic my piece on 4 aspects of BJP's president & V-P pick:
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Rahul Verma
4 months
Its 11 am, 3 hrs of counting - leads have started settling in - unlikely that NDA will go above 350+ - can BJP cross 272 or Cong reach 90+? - massive imrovement in Cong means BJP takes a big hit - BJP takes a big hit in core states, while making gains in non-core areas
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Rahul Verma
1 year
The Future of Dalit Politics in India please join us for the launch & discussion of "Dalits in the New Millennium" on 26th Sep, 6:00 pm at IIC Annexe this co-edited volume with Sudha Pai & Shyam Babu has 24 chapters. See details on this thread:
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Rahul Verma
9 months
Why women vote for BJP? Anirvan Chowdhury ( @chyawanprash ) argues that welfare delivery play a much smaller role in comparison to BJP's political narrative of Seva (embodying positive extension of women’s domestic roles). Link:
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Rahul Verma
4 months
2024 Verdict & Future of Indian Politics - appeal of PM Modi & political hindutva - contours of welfare state - place of capital & agriculture in new political economy - accommodation of marginalised groups - crisis within some state parties - succession plan within BJP
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
1 year
India Fellowship @ Harvard - Applicants must have obtained their Ph.D. after March 2018. - Those who have primarily been educated at institutions in India will be given priority. Deadline: May 25, 2023 Details:
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Rahul Verma
3 years
Why study political science? my former teacher at DU, Neera Chandoke, on what political scientists should strive for --- to become the conscience of their society .... there is a reason why Aristotle called it the ‘master science’
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Rahul Verma
6 years
Opening the Black Box of Election Polling & Seat Forecasting Jointly hosted by @CPR_India & @LoknitiCSDS Panel1: @sanjaycsds @YRDeshmukh @pradip103 @bhaweshjha Panel2: @sardesairajdeep @surjitbhalla @saurabhtop 5 March 3-5 PM, IIC Annex,
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Rahul Verma
4 years
State of Polling & Election Forecasting in India Bengal to me is ripe with all three possibilities .... khela hobe ki khela khatam !!
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Rahul Verma
4 months
Is 2024 an inflection point in India's fourth party system? data from @_YogendraYadav et. al's two very thoughtful pieces indicate greater role of state-level specificities in determining the outcome worth pondering over the implications of these developments?
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Rahul Verma
4 years
In a year-ender piece, I outline medium-run 5 trends in India's party politics -- - BJP in expansionist mode - disoriented opposition - frequency of protests likely to increase - how might 2021 play out electorally? - significance of PM's speech at AMU
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Rahul Verma
4 years
Political Science, Political Sense & Political Courage .. .. are rarely found in one single document. My review of @_YogendraYadav 's "Making Sense of Indian Democracy" that advocates the Indian model, methodological pluralism, dialogue, reform & action.
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Rahul Verma
4 months
Did Kejriwal's speech hurt BJP in UP? in this interesting piece @RamaNewDelhi suggests that both the seats & vote share of the BJP in UP dropped in the phases that voted after Kejriwal’s speech about CM Yogi Adityanath. Link:
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
1 year
Internship Opportunity This @NFI_India internship intends to sensitise UG & PG students towards the rural economy. Deadline: May 21
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Rahul Verma
1 year
FLAME university campus in Pune is so elegantly designed I loved the names of buildings- chandragupta theatre, arjuna sportx complex, kalidass the western ghat mountains in monsoon rains are mesmerising !!
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@rahul_tverma
Rahul Verma
4 years
Books to understand Contemporary Bihar Arvind Das: Republic of Bihar Ashwani Kumar: Community Warriors Jeff Witsoe: Democray Against Development @sanjaycsds : Post-mandal Bihar @SankarshanT : biographies on Lalu & Nitish Santosh Singh: Ruled or misruled #BiharElections2020
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Rahul Verma
3 years
RSS: An ambitious agenda for the future Walter Anderson on Dattatreya Hosabale’s appointment as the sar karyavah and what it means for - the organisational growth, reconciling diverse views, the RSS-BJP relationship, and the parivar's agenda for India
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Rahul Verma
3 years
Ruling classes don't lose elections, they remain in power by changing sides very thoughtful intervention by @Sourav_RB & Ghosal on the bhadralok entrenchment vs subaltern hindutva. 100 of BJPs candidates are from other parties.
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Rahul Verma
4 years
Attitude towards Vaccination in India - Good news: very few vaccine skeptics in India. - no demographic pattern, anxiety levels matter - little partisan differences @ankita_barthwal @AbdulNajah & I write using YouGov-Mint- @CPR_India survey -
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Rahul Verma
9 months
Why some issues don't matter electorally? please join us with @tariqthachil @shikhar_46 @jayashreenandi & @bhargavkrishna to discuss why certain issues like air-pollution do not get salience among parties & voters 25 Jan, 5:30 pm, on Zoom Registration:
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Rahul Verma
10 months
Anti-incumbency against MPs & MLAs Pradeep Chhibber & I reflect on 3 questions: - how elected MLAs become unpopular ? - why parties find hard to replace them? - whether replacing unpopular MLAs good for democratic politics?
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Rahul Verma
2 years
First principles of implementing reforms - prepare public opinion before announcements, reach out to perceived losers of change, field politicians rather than bureaucrats to engage. Remember, continuous street mobilisation never good. My piece:
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Rahul Verma
4 years
What explains Modi's popularity amidst economic hardship? - desire for a strong leader, not just among Hindus - responding to shifting expectations: the Indian state as a facilitator than the provider - improvements in the last mile delivery THREAD (1/3)
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Rahul Verma
4 years
A discussion of former Vice President of India Hamid Ansari ji's latest book "By Many a Happy Accident" Panelists: @PChidambaram_IN , Shyam Saran, @ShashiTharoor , @PavanK_Varma moderated by @sardesairajdeep Wed, 10 Feb, 6.00 PM IST Zoom Details:
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Rahul Verma
2 years
Politics and Cinema in India @ShamikJNU & I look at the latest YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial survey to understand how political preferences are shaping our view of cinema and celebrities --
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Rahul Verma
3 years
Modi as the Messenger-in-Chief excellent @sardesairajdeep 's column on how BJP won UP & other states this begs a series of questions: Is Modi the message? Or he symbolises a "credible message"? Can message resonate on the ground without machine & social math?
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