Former Executive Director, IMF for India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. Economist, cricket junkie, policy wonk, and film (all woods, old and new) enthusiast
In the imagination of many news channels, it appears as if every Kashmiri Muslim is deemed a terrorist.. it's a shocking, unforgivable demonisation of a community. For god sake, are we journalists or jingoists? Wake up to your conscience ahead of TRPs please..
The pandemic has affected (motivated) journalism in India - no one is afraid of propagating fake news-this
@BT_India
chart shows Indian GDP YOY -23.9 % vs. US QOQ -9.5 % - like with like, as honest journalism should be, the US is -38 %- But who will tell bell the
@BT_India
cat?
Some professional news: I have been appointed as Executive Director of the IMF for a period of three years. Thanks to all my well-wishers (and the critics) over all these years.
That is a very important "context" you have provided - is the logic that any flag, sacred to any religion, should can be hoisted at the Red Fort and "as per NDTV" it will be "supported"- please clarify b'cos I am sure you don't mean to support the act
As per NDTV’s
@ghazalimohammad
, the flag hoisted by protestors at the Red Fort is sacred to Sikhs, seen outside gurudwaras where it is called the Nishan Saheb. It did not (mercifully) replace the tricolour, which remains aloft at the Red Fort at an elevation.
Fake Analysis with a heavy does of ideology; Parle "chimed in and said jobs were at risk for as many as 10,000 of its workers." Parle sales GROWTH declined by 2 %,from 9 to 7 %, about same as inflation decline, & profit growth 21 % yoy;When will media shelve pursuit of ideology?
I request many of the wise men who opine on farm laws nightly on TV to just go to border and meet farmers. They are very articulate and clear in their thinking.
#farmers
This can't be right-hope I am wrong-but is Prof.
@kaushikcbasu
, former CEA under INC, actually taking two decade end-point years, both outliers, and constructing a hypothesis to fit? Is there anyone else in the world, for any country, using 2020 as a stable indicator of a trend?
India’s growth has collapsed from over +10% in 2010 to around -10% in 2020. This is so rare, observers worldwide are puzzled. My hypothesis: There’s evidence that growth depends on not just economic policy but on trust in society. The rise of divisiveness & hate is eroding trust.
India turns out to have one of the largest stimulus packages in the world, contrary to much opposite speculation, especially in Indian media. Also the only country, so far, to institute major economic reforms in response to COVID
This is not a tsunami, not a wave - it is a earthquake - shaking the foundations of what we thought determined voting - like caste, dynasty; the Lutyens elite is vanquished it is now Down Under because of the Earthquake
are you saying a liberal is a liberal regardless of his/her views as long as that view includes anti-Modi; what is teh difference between you and an authoritarian fascist? Just asking
Nothing wrong in liberals supporting Raj Thackeray this election. Raj has become voice of anti-Modi brigade. Opposition leaders including Rahul failed to do that. Raj has occupied that space. Only time will tell if Raj has changed his stripes or not!
I challenge you
@drshamamohd
to show me any document, or newsclip, or even hearsay evidence where I have said that the economy is not slowing down-I even said on TV that U don't need an economist to tell you that economy has slowed down;what other fake news have U peddled?
#GDP
falls to 5% in Q1 from 5.8% in the new method, that means considering the old method it is 3 %! Then you have pseudo economists like
@surjitbhalla
who says economy is not slowing down! Shame on Bhalla who is lying to the Indian people !
Possibly beginning of end of many reputations of epidemiologists (& journalists?) across the world who bet the ranch on COVID explosion, especially deaths;naivete, ignorance, or bad political calculation? Unfortunately, world paid a heavy price for the miscalculation
On 21 March 2020 I had promised
@BDUTT
I'd reply to her tweet on Independence Day 🇮🇳 2020.
As of now 2.46 million
#COVID19
patients in
#India
of whom 1.75 million have recovered, 48040 have died.
NOT 300 million to 500 million cases and 1 million to 2 million deaths by July-end.
Compared to what Savarkar and other revolutionary freedom fighters endured in prison, Gandhi and Nehru’s prison terms were just rough boarding schools. Reading Savarkar’s two recent biographies I am constantly astounded that they survived.
Are you saying that Nehru and Congress were right wing governments? As you well know, India was way behind other developing countries in the first 50 years post-independence; For most of the time Congress was in power; why did it hold back education? Right-wing authoritarianism?
Poorly-educated masses is the major source of strength and support for right-wing governments. Hence, through history, when right-wing governments come to power you can guess what happens to the quality of education in the nation.
Dear
@AmitShah
@smritiirani
. This is happening in Kerala. See the atrocity CPM labour union CITU showing towards a woman who chose to work ignoring the strike initiative. This is how Kerala lost indusries and our youth forced to work abroad.
@sgurumurthy
@rajeev_mp
@republic
Please read and retweet this important thread - 259 tweets documenting the fact that crimes against individuals is not limited to Hindus against Muslims - there are many reverse crimes as well ; let us not politicise crimes - rather work towards swift justice
Rumour going around that UPA had higher growth; therefore no policy paralysis; "new" GDP data does not change reality that macro-economic INSTABILITY was highest under UPA-highest inflation ever, highest center+state fiscal deficits, highest corruption & highest policy paralysis
Earthquake Modi :Before we get to what the
@narendramodi
govt will do next, imperative that we understand what did happen in India in 2014-2019 & what might have led Modi led NDA to win with highest % ever (>=48.2) in any election in India-my attempt
In 1957 Nehru won 7 more seats than 1952 - Modi appears to have won 21 more seats - except for sympathy wave sikh pogrom 1984 this is by far the biggest
@AdvaitaKala
It has long been known that beef consumption is one of the easiest things to cut for the benefit of climate - Let us see if the western world co-operates
Jan ki Baat, in a few short years, has established a reputation as a very credible pollster -
@pradip103
presented results of his extensive polling yesterday on
@republic
; The first opinion poll to suggest a comfortable 300+ margin for the NDA - We all await 23rd May !
Long overdue labour reforms argued by every serious economist (& serious policy makers &
#HLAG
) for the last 40 years are finally happening-kudos to state governments (& central) for taking this step-we will all be surprised by tepid opposition; the bluff has been called-Finally!
Times Have Changed - even
@BBCWorld
stoops to Fakenews to grab eyeballs - Is the competition that strong or is BBC really dead (with apologies to Simon and Garfunkel)
Obama:Some on the Left have weaponized political correctness to shut down debate, stifling legitimate arguments."This idea of purity, & you're never compromised, & you're always politically woke, & all that stuff, you should get over that quickly”.Wisdom for all, especially India
Stop the protests! 2018 article by
@PSainath_org
documents relationship between politicians, arhtiyas & poor farmers in deep debt to arhtiyas; Must read for policy makers & all those supporting "poor" rich farmers & their passionate middlemen supporters "
Cannot recall hearing 3 very good news about economic reforms in just 2 days. Maharashtra junking APMC regulation (make no mistake - this is mega reform & sure political winner),record jump in ease of doing business, & GST crossing 1 trillion. Still expecting trolls to find fault
The first of two articles on Congress's minimum income guarantee scheme; There is no other way to say it — Congress’s ‘expert’ formulation of a ‘unique’ concept of minimum income guarantee is intellectually embarrassing and deeply flawed.
Arundhati Roy in her book on dams in 1998 said that millions of people displaced by dam construction in India were living in situation worse than Nazi concentration camps - she is probably the first one to let her one-book fame license her to spread Goebbels propaganda
just for research, when was Raghu critical of UPA except in summer of 2013 when economy had hit below rock bottom and he was brought in to rectify it - at that time, even the Pope was critical - but when beside that?
@TheJaggi
@TVMohandasPai
He has a right to talk in whatever capacity he wishes.He was critical of the economy/jobs situation even during the UPA when you were lapping it up in your columns, but let's face it back then he was useful to you,not anymore.Your response has zilch to do with your original claim
Very tricky move by Gehlot government, and really far from great - - what happened to Freedom of Expression ? Free Speech? Free Views and all that Jazz? Oh, I forgot the mantra is as one popularized by Khrushchev - What is mine is mine (views), what is yours is negotiable.
Now traffic fines for car stickers indicating religion, caste, & political party affiliation in Rajasthan.
Why do people need to display castes or religion on cars? This only fans communal flames. This is a great move by the
@ashokgehlot51
govt.
Almost 1/3 rd of total VVPAT counting is over, and not a single mismatch so far.
Repeat: Not a single mismatch so far.
Now waiting for a 100% result of VVPAT counter-check to come in the same way, and trust me, i am going to celebrate THAT result more than anything else.
The govt needs to be congratulated for beyond BIG TIME reform; history would likely judge it to be equal to if not bigger than 1991 reforms -a govt that makes correct policies for all and for India - thank you
@narendramodi
and thank you
@nsitharaman
A big booster to the economy. Corporate tax rate slashed by
@FinMinIndia
@nsitharaman
. This step will further send positive signals, and aid in boosting demand. The govt of
@PMOIndia
@narendramodi
listens, & is proactive to the needs of the people. We now have apt rates.
Economists world over have talked about the elusive nature of inclusive growth -
@TVMohandasPai
documents how
@narendramodi
has delivered; will be a text book example in years to come for all nations; A succinct must read summary -
Spent three peaceful, happy days in Varanasi with my Loyola School class mates. What struck me the most:
1. The ghats of Banaras have never been so spotlessly clean.
2. Ganga looks pristine.
Achieving both goals in less than 5 years must have been a Herculean task.
#Varanasi2018
20-50 years ago, anti-poor policies were defended with the invocation "I begin in the name of the poor"; today, there is no polite pretense-old elite has taken all masks off - open support for rich farmers, benefitting at the expense of the poor farmers
Lot of funny interpretations going on about the income criteria of 8 lacs - please can we just understand one simple fact - 8 lacs is Household income; tax criterion of 3 lacs is Individual incone
Some leading left &/or Congress economists r saying that Big Bang tax reform is only a supply side measure and does nothing for the demand side-all the economics I have learnt says that tax cut leads to more money in pocket and greater demand-Please help-am I wrong or LC's wrong
Argumentative Indians love to debate-Fortunately, with release of NFHS data there is now NO debate that Multi-dimensional poverty declined faster, much faster, 2011/21 (& 2015-21) than between 2004/11. Poverty improvement inclusive of data on nutrition.
Faking encounters to implicate non-Congress politicians: I hope liberal intellectuals, in media and elsewhere, will respond to Sohrabuddin & CBI under INC - no mea culpa expected but at least acknowledgement that maybe life and liberty wasn't liberal perfect prior to Modi's BJP
Remember the fake studio-simulated videos telecast with impunity during primetime by TV channels? The 'white beard-black beard' stories? The tub-thumping shrill commentary? Two cowrie journalists became stars. Their maliks couldn't stop counting the cash.
#MSM
disgraced itself.
It is just fantastic that the govt has got into big bang reforms Modi 2.0 - and this was also a recommendation of of the HLAG report for the ministry of commerce which I had the Honor and privelege to chair
This is structural change as Modi 2.0 is continuously providing & building on Modi 1.0. Decade 2014-2024 will be remembered for when India graduated from its misplaced "socialist" policies & started emphasizing concrete delivery of benefits over "in the name of the poor" rhetoric
The public sector is essential but at the same time the role of the private sector is also vital. Take any sector- telecom, pharma- we see the role of the private sector.
If India is able to serve humanity, it is also due to the role of the private sector: PM
@narendramodi
Embarrassingly bad and ill-informed article - I thought the critics were supposed to have good "bench-strength" but they can't even get basic facts about GST right - Is this just Cambridge Analytica or is there more?
I objected to national anthem being played in movie theatres and I similarly object to it being "milked" for political goals, goosebumps or no goosebumps
As you know, this issue has been publicly debated for at least the last 40 years-How long can we keep publicly debating? Ii interests of public debate, a list of reforms that were not rammed through would be most useful to all
The farmers agitation on the borders of Delhi comes as proof that reforms even good ones cannot be rammed through. They have to be publicly debated with those whom they affect most.
3 cremation sites in Gujarat,1 each UP, MP & Bihar; "meticulous" gathering, but only in BJP+ states? 0 in Maha, Delhi or Kerala, states with the largest rate of infections? last 30 days, Maha is reporting (per case) only half as many deaths as Gujarat
@karanbhasin95
@jburnmurdoch
Two days left before a reality check - Until then an update to my
#CitizenRaj
forecast for BJP and INC alone; 300 for BJP alone is well within reach - for that to happen, West Bengal will have to deliver for BJP
An equal argument can be made that British colonialism was responsible, because they "gave" us railways and we economists know that infrastructure is critical for growth.
If anyone gets credit for India overtaking UK’s GDP, it’s Narasimha Rao & Manmohan Singh’s govts. India’s growth spurt from 1994 & even faster growth from 2005 made this inevitable, despite the sharp slowdown since 2016. It’s like a relay race won inspite of the last runner.
A bit disingenuous no? Rupee was 4.75/$ in 1947 what you have said can be said of all. The fastest and largest decline of 50 % was under sonia gandhi UPA!
47 seats in UP have combined Muslim-Yadav-Dalit population exceeding 50% of voters on that seat. This means despite Balakot, SP-BSP alliance poses single biggest threat to PM Modi’s re-election campaign.
@IndiaToday
Data Intelligence Unit crunched numbers.
I saw the interview and I was personally embarrassed how a senior professional was treating a youngster with a much better psephologist record than him! Even if your record was not good, no way to treat professionals - no class
When all my points proved better than Mr Yogendra Yadav's point he started taunting -"inko inki bhavishavani vani mubarak"
My response- " I do analysis, prediction after speaking 2 thousands on ground unlike lazy Delhi predictions".
@surjitbhalla
@ndtv
@narendramodi
Got an opportunity to share a copy of Citizen Raj and The New Wealth of Nations (NWN) to Hon'ble PM
@narendramodi
. His policies emphasize the deep understanding within the govt. of how education is the NWN and successful democracies are all about good governance or Citizen-Raj!
An objective summary and listing of social sector achievements by the Modi govt - tragically, and shockingly, never mentioned by the so-called liberals; indian liberals are the new Left
The Modi govt is being dissed for being "anti women" by liberals. Here's a thread on all the progressive initiatives of this govt that have directly or indirectly helped and will help Indian women across regions, religions and income levels in the last 5 years and times to come.
I don't know if I am in a hopeless minority of one in my forecast that BJP will end with a razor thin majority on its own in 2019, but I do hope that I will be close to the actual result on May 23rd - a psephologist lives with fingers crossed till judgement day
“He’s unconventional, he contrarian, he takes an unusual position and when he starts, he’s a hopeless minority of one...”says
@arunjaitley
about author of
#CitizenRaj
@surjitbhalla
at the book’s launch in
#Delhi
How come hacking did not happen in Dec 18 or karnataka April 18 or most famously in Bihar and Delhi 2015 ; the fact that Delhi media laps this up shows their sad state of intellectual dishonesty
Now that the combined Opposition has said the EVMs have been captured/tampered with, you'll have charges of this being a rigged election. All of this with no real proof. Quite sad, the allegations being made. First, they raised issue of hacking, again without proof, now this 😡
He spoke about 100+ BJP workers being murdered, polling agents being arrested, bomb blasts to keep voters from voting ... we've read all of this in bits and pieces ... it's like a totally different India we're talking of ... quite frightening
I am afraid,
@TheJaggi
, the answer lies in your question - But agree it is sad, terribly sad - but my sadness has decreased over the years - we can confidiently say that for over 99 % of intellectuals, psuedo or othrwise, Arundhati Roy is a non-entity
Something seriously wrong with Arundhati Roy that she can speak lies so confidently without fear of challenge. And why are journalists who listen to such rubbish not questioning her claims?
My 2nd & last article on
@arvindsubraman
method of evaluating over-estimation of Indian GDP-would not have spent time if he not ex-CEA; see what happens when his method is applied to 89 countries; Germany over-estimates GDP most;& other weird results 😔
There is a fallacy here - in the assumption/statement that farmers are not supporting the new farm laws - I agree some 200,000 rich farmers, primarily in Punjab, will get hurt; should policy be dictated by the richest few farmers?
How do you get farmers on board if they stick to saying that all the 3 farm laws should be repealed first?
@kiranshaw
you cannot negotiate saying that your way is the only way!Govt has agreed to amend sections on which farmers are concerned!
Must read:"All of India would be labelled as cheats & narrative would be pushed-with generous help from sections of Indian elite-that the much lower deaths in India are because the numbers are “fudged”.Why is it that the sections of Indian elite are always the same defeated ones?
Given innuendos & falsehoods emanating from
@thewire
&
@_CMIE
surrounding my article, I propose that
@mkvenu1
or anther economist of
@thewire
to moderate and participate in a joint meeting of us 3 to be published. This is an open Challenge which I hope the parties will accept
I have often disagreed with
@sgurumurthy
but I agree with him on demonetization ; and I believe history will record his appointment on the RBI's governing board as the most inspired
All must welcome the choice of
@DasShaktikanta
as RBI governor; he is a knowledgable seasoned and mature policy expert ; monetary policy will become understandable again
This is true and has to do with the fact that blind-support for the INC comes primarily from the old elite, whose wings have been cut by the Modi and BJP led developments over the last 4.5 years
Why does Modi remain abundantly popular? Partly b'cos of the existence of condescending, patronizing elites who think of others as deplorables. Many of us will have to hunt for a dictionary "by the elites and for the elites" to make sense of this one!
That must have been said about 45 years ago - and so true for India for all these years - wonder what she would have said witnessing beyond gentleman farmers, pleading for more subsidies and supported by a willfully blind elite who are now powerless
One of the most brilliant, pragmatic and visionary speeches by Margaret Thatcher. Puts the issue of gratuitous farmer subsidies in context. Do watch. (Thanks
@karanbhasin95
for putting out the video)
The unfortunate role of political ideology in what passes for intellectual discourse cannot be overstated; Reality and history would have been different (will be different) if "eminences" had indeed been less careless about their interpretations and conclusions
Amusing to see the microscopic scrutiny & questions on sources that my works r eliciting despite copious notes & references that I'm happy to share. If a fraction of such scrutiny had been done of works of "eminences" our historiography wouldn't be in the state that it is today!
Is
@thewire_in
known for objectivity - My own personal experience says not - glad the "other side" is finding out on its own ; the "secular" elite did not believe my complaints ; maybe now, with one of their own, they will
One of the most important recommendations of tax economists, implemented. This will apply to new companies moving
#SupplyChains
to India. Three cheers 👏👏👏to
@nsitharaman
and
@pmo
👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼
Tax revenues went up deficit went down and roads were built etc; plus growth maintained despite two severe drought years ; zilch you said? And inflation rate reduced ; still zilch?
Very very unfair to single out French-Left economists for NYAY-many leading Indian economists including Abhijit Banerjee & Rajan helped design NYAY program-as I have written before, it was a terrible design. It bombed not because it was not communicated well, it was bad Period.
In 10 weeks across India during the campaign, I didn’t find one likely beneficiary who understood NYAY. Happens when you have a clumsy scheme designed by French-Left economists trying to game the poorest Indian voter..
My 12 reasons for Modi landslide...
Swaminomics on farmer agitation - among several facts "Punjab farmers have huge political clout and extract massive subsidies invisible to the public" "the farm agitators surrounding Delhi are lakhpatis in annual subsidies and crorepatis in assets" "
Indian cricket has come a long way; all welcome the Supreme Court getting into agricultural policy because if it had not been for the SC actively setting the rules for Indian cricket, we would not be the best team in the world; so thank you SC for transforming IND cricket
#think
Interesting piece by
@BDUTT
where she contends that vote and popularity of Modi is because , reluctantly, people are voting for Modi because "aur kon hai"; wonder if electoral historians would describe Nehru's popularity thus ? Or Indira in 1971 or 1980?
“किसानों को उनकी पैदावार की सही कीमत तभी मिलेगी जब वे बिना किसी बिचौलिए के अपनी पैदावार सीधे शहरों तक पहुँचा सकेंगे”: यूपीए अध्यक्ष सोनिया गांधी
राजकोट में 3 अक्तूबर 2012 का भाषण
Just to make explicitly clear-I did NOT resign from PMEAC in protest-I had best of relations with
@bibekdebroy
& other members of PMEAC & the govt; I still work with PMEAC, when invited; I thank PM Modi and PMEAC for a very rich experience; sadly, for personal reasons, I resigned
While Rahul Gandhi wants to uphold the SC decision on Alok Verma he disbelieves SC on Rafale! He blames EC when he loses and believes EC when and if Cong wins! 😂
1/3 It seems Cambridge Analytica is at work again, thru their favorite mouthpieces.The new policy on reservations has the following criteria: Annual income < Rs 8l; farm land less than 5 acres; home smaller than 1000 sqft; it is for economically weaker sections,as it should be
Well researched and brilliantly argued by
@TVMohandasPai
with all the facts on the table - on what has happened to EFFECTIVE corporate tax rates in India over the last five years - a must read for all interested in growth, taxation, and tax revenues
The two comments together
@shekharkapur
and
@PandaJay
should be jointly read to comprehensively understand the problems India is facing. Sad - very sad.
And don't forget those who not only treat the other side as more credible, but actually lionise their leaders, even demanding a Nobel Peace prize for those who tolerate, train, fund & patronise terrorists...
Reality of jobs in India ? What we do know is that the latest NSSO PLFS data on employment is not the go to source to gain knowledge or understanding; paradoxically, our understanding will improve if the government were to release the flawed data
One message is that we should all become lawyers now - no need for other disciplines - From a nation of shop-keepers to a nation of lawyers - that is progress
#Think
If agitating Punjab farmers don't go back home once SC suspends
@narendramodi
farm laws,will SC ask its police to force them out of Delhi? Oh wait, SC doesn't have its own police force!
& if farmers or govt don't agree to panel reccos? Will India be run by SC's panels now?
#THINK
We have fake news; I discuss something far more dangerous - fake commentary by respected scholars (
@AshokaMody
, Raghuram Rajan) on important economic outcomes and policy; this needs to be called out;