Wealth Creation through Trading | Clarity, Conviction & Congruence | Director & Head - T&D Research
@JMFSLtd
| Perma-Bull on ๐ฎ๐ณ | All views are personal
A debt I can never repay, the one I owe to my mother.
From being an engineering dropout to becoming a household name in Equity markets, blessed to have come a long way. Hope, she would be a proudly smiling from the heavens!
Weight loss doesn't begin in the gym with a dumb bell; it starts in your head with a decision. If something is not right, take charge, seek help and most importantly start. Don't give up on your right to live a healthier life.
Back in 2022, I was obese, pre-diabetic, suffering
We expect Nifty to head towards 23,500 over the next 3-4 months. Below basket of stocks are likely candidates to participate in a possible pre-election rally.
Advice to buy them in delivery. Happy Investing!
+1000 point rally in Nifty possible in this month, but the bigger trade could be a Switch Hit from Micap and Smallcaps to Largecaps. Read on for our macro technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
This is BIG! Retail Positions in Index Futures at highest ever at 1.56L longs!
Last time such OI (1.46L) was seen, Nifty was at 15,800 in June & we rallied by 2304 points or 14.69% in 35 odd sessions.
Retail has won 3 out of 3 times vs FII's in the past in such setups.
#Nifty
Trading in stock markets is not easy. From blowing up accounts in my college days to not having enough money to buy the basics, seeing organisations & big traders go bust & even averting a couple of suicides, the stock market is one of the most difficult place to make easy money.
Around 14 years back, on a tough, volatile and loss making day, I asked a question to my senior,
โYour research goes to thousands of clients across the country. How do you avoid the guilt of the calls that go wrong?โ
(1 of 2)
Nifty is OVERHEATED ๐ฅต
1. Nifty PCR @ 1.44
2. Nifty Premiums @ Life Highs
3. FII Long/Short Ratio close to @ annual highs
4. Retail is not long & 18,600
4. Defensives like FMCG & IT seeing positive traction.
5. Not a clear short but it is prudent to hedge or take some profits
1000 point correction possible in January. Although VIX has cooled off but fresh longs missing at the top. This is how you can play short in Nifty.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
(2 of 2)
His answer is still etched in my DNA:
โFollow the process, when calls go right - give credit to the process, when they go wrong - still give credit to the process. This way you will remove urself from the equation.โ
This resonated with me like GOLD!
#Grateful
Donโt know who is the greater evil here but hats off to our countryโs leadership & health ministry for not allowing Pfizer & Moderna to sell their overpriced vaccines in India!
@narendramodi
Pfizer started trial on 14-01-2020, merely 3 days after China published DNA data to public on 11-01-2020. In case of Moderna, the trial seems to be started back in 2017.
Why global pharma mafia was hell after India for not using their vax!
VIX: It is said that the present is pregnant with the future.
VIX might be said to provide a crowd-sourced estimate for the degree to which the market is uncertain about the future.
High VIX = Concern and Low VIX = Calm
However, extremely low VIX can mean complacency or
There is a 61% chance that Nifty takes support around 19500 intraday and around 80% chance of a reversal if we don't break 19,600 on closing basis.
Read on for our macro technical views:ย
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
While I complete another journey around the sun, I take this moment to thank the almighty for keeping me alive, thanks to my family, friends, and all my well wishers for your love and support.
I am Grateful ๐๐ป๐
#birthday
#BlessedAndGrateful
It's a slow pitch for the Bulls but seeing the monthly expiry through with minimal damage could mean Nifty getting into 20-20 mode for December. Relentless rally in US Markets + Underperformance by Indian equities + Short squeeze could mean a new all time high in December.
Read
A FOMO rally could take Nifty right upto 21,000 but the biggest question is what to BUY? Here are our top stocks and strategy for December.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
The British handed over India to Indians in 1947 in a terrible economic condition.
In 2022, the British handed over Britain to an Indian in a terrible economic condition!
History repeats with a slight twist ๐
FIIs in FnO - Long Short Ratio Historical Movement vs Current:
- Current scenario Long : Short Ratio hits all time low of 10% : 90%
- Between 25th Feb 2020 to 6th Mar 2020, Nifty corrected from 12012 to 7832 with daily RSI reaching lowest level of 18-19
- They covered shorts
US markets highly oversold. Indian markets resilient best. FIIโs net buyers in cash segment in Aug & Sept so far. Broadly decent monsoon & bumper festive season ahead. Possible inclusion of India in Bond Index. All the right ingredients to take the Nifty to new all time high!
Cheat sheet for Nifty Capitulations:
Look for atleast 3 Extreme Data Points-
1. Nifty RSI = 30 or below
2. FII Long Short Ratio = 18% or below (current 26%)
3. VIX at multi month highs
4. Low Rollovers (less than 3 month average)
5. PCROI around 0.60 - 0.70 (current 0.66)
Bears may intensify their attack in the Budget Week however there is one strategy that you can do to participate in this weekโs volatility.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
From being a proud father watching his son daily on TV to a proud son watching his father LIVE on TV for the first time!
No amount of love, celebration & care is enough for the sacrifices of our parents. My father gave me the greatest gift anyone could give, โhe believed in me.โ
If we do break 19,500 once again, expect more pain in October. It's best to take a bottom up, stock specific approach in this market unless 19,800 is not taken out.
Read on for our macro technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
A sucker's rally is around the corner which means high adrenaline action can be expected ahead however keep an eye on these levels for a possible reversal or shorting opportunity in January.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM
The secret to living is giving. No matter how busy or broke you may be, you always have something to offer others.
Arranged meals for more than 400 people affected by the lockdown. I hope this post inspires you to do your bit.
#TogetherWeCan
Money in the bank is better than money in the books. Do take your profits and increase your allocation in IT stocks which are relatively better placed in such a scenario.
Read on for our complete Macro Technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
It could be checkmate for Bears above 19,470! Short covering + fresh longs could see the Nifty heading towards 19,800/19,850.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
Equity Game (cash segment) remains strong by both FII's and DII's as Nifty prepares itself to head towards 23,000 in this month. Look to buy on dips for optimal risk reward.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
Nifty Pathfinder by Rahul Sharma
Welcome correction but don't be in a hurry to buy the dip.
1. Biggest weekly sell figure in cash segment by FII's since Mid June 2022.
2. FII Long Short ratio turns negative at 49% from 66% as on Monday's close of Nifty 22,097.
3. Retail has
Domestic liquidity and IT stocks have ensured that Nifty is marching towards new life highs, however there are some segments of the market which are screaming overbought.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
Lessons from multiple Covid cases in my family including mine:
1. Isolate yourself & Test Early : RTPCR + CT Scans
2. Immediately seek doctorโs help (donโt self medicate)
3. Rest, rest & rest
4. Eat nutritious food
5. Daily Pranayama
Stay Optimistic - This too shall pass!
Santa Rally could take Nifty right upto 22,000 but do not forget to keep your trailing stoplosses. DII's are having a picture perfect close to the year as they start booking profits at record levels.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from
Bulls are raring to go all in after Fridayโs firm close but we need to cross this important level for confirmation of the breakout.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
May is getting more interesting than ever with positive signals from global markets and negative setup on technical front. India VIX is back into uncomfortable territory above its 50 DEMA means more volatility ahead of us.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:
The traffic light may just turn red ๐ด for Nifty if we break this level. Quarterly numbers to keep sector/stock specific action in focus.
Read on for our Macro Technical views:ย ย ย
#NiftyPathfinder
by Rahul Sharma from JM Financial
Conviction with Clarity ๐
BHEL @ 70+ !!! First Initiated at 38, then at 42 and now last one at 45
55% Return in little over 2 weeks in the most recent initiation!!! ๐๐๐
@shail_bhatnagar
@virendraonNifty
@AshVerma111
The last time
#Nifty
went below its 200 Week (4 Yr) Moving Average was back in 2008 & once it went above this long term average, it signaled end of the bear market & strong gains were recorded in the short term.
Current 200 WMA stands around 10,200.
Stay
#Long
& Stay
#Bullish
As Nifty has corrected over the last few days, retail/client longs in Index Futures have ballooned up to a new 12 month high indicating a lot of stuck positions among retail + also highlighting the bullish bias.
Key data to keep an eye on:
1. Retail longs 1 year high -
FII longs are now decisively more than retail longs in Index Futures & this is happening at 18,400. They had highest shorts at 16,900 in October & at 15,300 in June when retail was superlong. Imagine the plight if this was done by a domestic fund manager!
#fiidata
#Nifty
A place where it all started 17 years back! These places will always hold a special place in my heart : BSE Building, Dalal Street, Parmeesha, Maker Chambers, Marine Drive โค๏ธ