(Thread) 1/n This headline drew my attention. I had no clue about โNano Ureaโ
So I Googled and found some amazing work - completely under the radar - by IFFCO
@IFFCO_PR
! ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป
@drusawasthi
Can revolutionize agriculture, environment, food costs, imports of fertilizer
1/n (thread) Our rich history of stockmarkets & trading: we've had our own system of trading & derivatives for a 100 years.
I've compiled a list of our desi sharebazaar terms (Gujarati/ Hindi). We should be proud of our history!
Do share and re-tweet!
..2
The worldโs biggest bet on India
Tata + 2As will invest $200 billion - 6% of GDP
Indian businesses are making bold bets and investing big in India while cutting global investments
Do we need bigger confirmation for the thesis that the next decade belongs to India?
Since 2015
Personal income tax collected is up 4.2 times to Rs. 9 lakh crores
Plus Rs. 7-8 lakh crores collected in oil/petrol/diesel taxes (up almost 3x since 2015)
Corporate taxes are only up by 2.2 times
Individual taxpayers continue to bear the biggest burden. This has
In the past 5 years while we have aimed towards..
-Aatmanirbharta
-Make in India
-PLI Schemes
-being the One in โChina+One production sourceโ for multinational companies...
...Vietnam with 7% of Indiaโs population has sprinted and has become the 6th largest exporter to the US!
Nice chart on migration across market caps over 10 years.
Of the 100 largecaps today, 19 used to be midcaps and 3 were smallcaps
Of the 100 largecaps in 2014, 17 became midcap, 4 smallcap and 1 microcap
250 smallcaps today - 4 were large, 35 mid, 99 have come up from the
India versus China: debate becoming mainstream and clearly in favor of India
India: flourishing Democracy
China: didnโt turn out as promised - Investors who invested 15-20 years didnโt get what the thought they were investing in - China didnโt open up and became more
1/n (Thread) One of the most important factor which can impact global markets is not well-understood.
YCC - Yield Curve Control - by the Bank of Japan - and how it can be a breakpoint for markets
Read onโฆ
Thread - Indian markets have seen 4 big bull runs since 1979, with 380 times or 38000%returns,
- biggest run was 1988-92, market up 10x in 4 years!
- last 10-year run (Sensex 9000 to 38000) is the smallest in total % appreciation and annualized returns!
1/n
1/ Since 2015, Government Debt/GDP has increased massively while Corporate Debt/GDP has reduced
As corporate India slowed down investments and reduced debt, Govt had to step in to by spending to maintain growth
Exactly opposite of the 2002-2015 scenario
Why?
..2
Valuations of India small-caps exceed that of large-caps for the first time in over a decade (usually 20-50% discount to large-caps, now at premium)
Some froth building?
"If you ever wanna make a movie over here, let's talk"-
#JamesCameron
to
@SSRajamouli
!
Super video - conversation between two legendary directors.
Amazing analysis, empathetic observation and genuine compliments by James Cameron ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป
@RRRMovie
@AlwaysRamCharan
"If you ever wanna make a movie over here, let's talk"-
#JamesCameron
to
#SSRajamouli
. ๐๐ป๐๐ป
Hereโs the longer version of the two legendary directors talking to each other.
#RRRMovie
1/3 State-wise car ownership (% of households owning a car)
Interesting to see that most hilly states in north and east have much higher car ownership than the national average but much lower 2-wheeler motorcycle/bicycle ownership than average
From
@indiainpixels
Midcap + Smallcap fund assets (23% of MF equity assets) are now greater than Largecap fund assets (15%)โฆ
โฆand also larger than the largest category of equity funds i.e. FlexiCap funds (15%)
Mid+Smallcap funds saw inflows of Rs. 6,800 crores in August (35% of net inflows of
#Netflix
has given up 5 years of returns (in 5 months) while it has doubled the number of customers in 5 years
Thatโs the risk of buying growth at any price (valuations) - thereโs no margin for error/ disappointment
โNarrativeโ investing works - till it doesnโt
Personal consumption: change in 23 years
Proportion of spending on food is down 9% (increase in non-food). This is to be expected as income levels rise and discretionary consumption increases.
But within non-food, the sharpest increase is in education + medical + conveyance +
2/ so much potential for disruption..
..but not very well-covered in the media..
Now expect to see negative articles planted by multinational companies to undermine Indiaโs achievement and the threat to global Urea demandโฆ
Extraordinary times need extraordinary steps.
In 1997-98, the Hong Kong stockmarket fell 60% due to hedge-funds' speculative attack on HK currency and stocks.
As an extreme step, Govt. bought USD 15 billion index stocks & futures in Aug '98, about 8% of market cap!!...
1/n
Manufacturing sector size:
India : 450 billion US Dollars
USA. : 2,500 Bn (2.5 Trillion)
Europe: 2,900 Bn
China: 5,000 Bn
China is 11x India, Europe 6x, USA 5x
China = US+Europe
โGlass half-fullโ:
Even if 5% of worldโs production or 10% of China shifts to India, we will need
Since 1993, almost 30 years,
MSCI India Index: + 2,000%
MSCI China Index: - 50%
MSCI Emerging Mkt: +160%
No global institution can afford not being overweight India
And buying China just because it looks cheap - no longer justified
SmallCaps face a harder climb to get promoted
While almost 33% of MidCaps rise to become LargeCap in 5-10 years, only 10-15% of SmallCaps become Mid or Large after 5-10 years
15-20% fail or become TinyCaps
65-70% remain SmallCap
Source: Nuvama
(Thread) 1/ Indian stockmarket outperformed other Emerging Markets (EM) in the 1990s and 2000s
But the past 10 years have seen no outperformance, and in the past 5 years, India has underperformed the MSCI EM Index
Letโs dig deeper into the countries and sectors in the EM Index
โ I don't think I have seen such long-term bullishness on India from a group (global investors) this sophisticated. It augurs well for longer-term capital flows into the country. Every correction will see money being put to work (flows to India) โ
- Akash Prakash of Amansa
The polarization of the market (and the economy?) continues: large getting larger
In the last 2 years:
Nifty 50 : +5%
MidCap : -27%
SmallCap : -46%
Within Nifty 50:
Top 15 : +42%
Next 35 : -20%
(MotilalOswal,Bloomberg)
#nifty50
#india
#StockMarket
Nice study by SEBI on Indian traders:
> Number of traders up 6x in 3 years, at 45 lakh
> 90% make losses
> 80% are male
> Huge increase in 20-30 old traders
> Traders are mostly trading Index Options
> Most volumes are from smaller towns
75% of banking financial transactions are now DIGITAL .. it was only 15% - just 6 years ago
UPI, Mobile and Internet banking lead the transformation
Cheque and ATM volumes REDUCE by 15-25% annually
(BCG)
No country in history has grown fast for long periods of time without creating physical assets (manufacturing capacity, infrastructure, real estate). For many years we have grown by growth in consumption and IT / other services. Now itโs the time for physical-asset led growth
A Man wrote to the bank. "My Cheque was returned with remark 'Insufficient funds'. I want to know whether it refers to my account or the Bank"
๐๐ these days you canโt be sure
Software exports from India are more than oil imports even at todays high oil prices
Indiaโs vulnerability is reducing every year as exports/remittances from overseas are growing/stable
Good for INR.
@chokhani_manish
your wish is getting closer to fulfillment every year!
@GabbbarSingh
We could have a Panchayat Cinematic Universe like the Marvel CU. Many characters can have their own backstories and spin-offs
โBanrakas: ek bawasir zindagiโ
โPhir aana Phakauli bajarโ
How large is large?
BSE
#of
free-float
Index stocks m cap
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโ-
SmallCap 716 8.8 lakh cr.
MidCap 101 7.3 lakh cr.
Reliance 1 7.3 lakh cr.
โBeyond Indexโ
This is not a meme, itโs an actual screenshot
My sympathies with Delhi folks. Stay safe. Mumbai - is still โunhealthyโ - nothing to gloat about...
#DelhiAirQuality
#DelhiPollution
#Delhi
#India
has done better than so many developed countries
It is absolutely infuriating that we have to issue clarification on FACTS - just due to the hypocrisy and bias of the western media
Profits matter. Since 2005, Nasdaq 100 is up 9xโฆand so are profits of Nasdaq companies! So, the valuation of Nasdaq 100 (PE) is the same as in 2005
In comparison, Nifty profits are 2x in USD terms (3x in INR) and the price is up 5x (7x in INR) ,so the P/E is up from 15 to 30
Not cool,
@flyspicejet
Web check-in is compulsory but your website has no seat selection option which is free. So auto-allocation of seats has couples who have to sit apart....
The recent selling by FIIs is huge from a historical perspective and so is domestic buying
FIIs and domestic funds have mostly been on opposite ends since 2009.
In the golden period of 2004-7, they were on the same side - leading to one of the longest and sharpest bull-runs
Study of 75 companies in China who decided to shift out/ expand capacity outside
#China
in the past 2.5 years
10% came to
#India
(population 138cr)
33% went to
#Vietnam
(population 9cr)
10%
#Taiwan
(0.7cr)
10%
#Thailand
(7cr)
7%
#Malaysia
(3cr)
Bernstein Research
Cautionary signals. Many equity markets are in โeuphoricโ zone.
Sentiments are extremely โgreedyโ and thereโs no โfearโ. Retail investors are in a frenzy.
Citiโs greed and fear sentiment indicator is at almost off-the-chart levels
Mumbai has become a tragedy for middle-class homebuyers
225 square feet : 1BHK for a person who is paying for a home
300 sq.ft. : size of free apartments for SRA slum dwellers
405 sq.ft. : minimum size proposed for slumdwellers in the Dharavi redevelopment plan
1/
7/
@rameshraliya
@drusawasthi
Firstly, many thanks and congratulations to you on this great achievement!
Appreciate if you can throw some light on how much reduction in urea usage per acre is possible by using Nano versus conventional method. Thanks
Profits drive prices, in the long run.
In last 20 years, Nifty and Nifty Profits are both up 10x
More importantly, see how closely the two are linked and follow each other. There are periods of over-shoot (expensive market) and under-shoot (attractive, value market), but
Indiaโs market cap is Rs. 156 Lakh Crores.
A crisp summary showing the breakup of Indiaโs market into Large, Mid, Small Cap -
@BSEIndia
Indices
To help understand the debate around
#SEBI
move on
#MutualFunds
exposure to mid and small caps
(source: Bloomberg, BSE)
India: a โperfect emerging marketโ
Fastest growing
Use of technology - AADHAR, UPI are unique national digital infrastructure in the world
โ$12 (1000 rupees) smartphoneโ
Need to create huge infrastructure and capacities like China
Demographics
Democracy
Number of folios for Small-Cap funds has gone up by 2.6 times (to 1.3 crore) in the past 2 years
For the first time, number of mutual fund folios in Small-Cap funds = number of mutual fund folios in Large-Cap funds.
Number of folios in Small-Cap funds is greater than folios in
Japan BLOWS away all expectations!!
MOTHER of all fiscal stimuli announced - 1 Trillion Dollars - 20% of GDP!!
India has still only used the monetary cannon. Need to go all guns blazing with big fiscal howitzers soon.
#StimulusPackage2020
Some more additions to the fiscal army: Stimulus so far (% of GDP) to fight
#COVID19
Malaysia 16%
China 7%
Japan > 10% expected
Singapore 11%
US 9%
Poland 9%
Sweden 6%
New Zealand 4%
Germany 4%
Canada 3%
Australia Italy UK Spain: 1 to 2%
India so far < 1% : lockdown needs more
While we are bombarded with negative news, these noble and motivated people focus on doing something about it, whatever they can, ignoring the noise.
Nothing can be holier than this. ๐๐ป๐๐ป
Electronics will make up half the cost of the car compared to less than 20% twenty years ago
Electronics, Software, Connectivity and Machine Learning/ AI are irreversible trends. All for the better
Have a great week ahead!
"The thrill of RRR is not the density of its storytelling, thoughโitโs the exuberance of it... If wonder is to be consistently found on the big screen, then Hollywood has plenty of new lessons to learn from its best competitor."
1/n (thread) We (India consensus estimates) have been too optimistic in estimating future profits & too slow/ reluctant to project lower, realistic growth
The projections have invariably been too bullish, way off the mark and have seen continuous cuts for many years
..2
Narratives:
2000 : โInternet is unique, exciting since it is de-centralized, open, canโt be controlled by Governments/ Big Corporationsโ
2020 : โCryptos are unique, exciting since they are de-centralized, open, canโt be controlled by Governments/Big Corporationsโ
God bless India and Indian pharmaceutical companies
The treatment costs for 4 rare diseases cut from crores of Rupees to a few lakhs, down by 90-95%
Link ๐๐ป๐๐ป
1/n Hindi cinema (Bollywood) is in a crisis - of content and creativity - and customers are voting with their wallets
Bollywood box office collections have dropped alarmingly..
and Hindi cinemaโs share in total Indian box-office collection has dropped from 45% to 33%
(Source:
We are delighted to welcome Mihir Vora (
@theMihirV
) as our Chief Investment Officer. Mihir has a distinguished career spanning nearly three decades in investing across asset classes including equity, fixed income, real estate and alternative investment funds.
Mihir's knowledge
Markets - how we got here. All you need to know in one chart
1) CoVid - massive rate cuts - to almost zero
2) Stocks explode
3) Japanese Yen (JPY) trades in a range
4) inflation picks up, growth strong - US hikes rates..
5) ..stocks fall
6) JPY also falls, becomes currency
Bandra-Kurla complex traffic at 5 pm
All internal roads and external connections jammed
Even worse later at 6 pm
Can take 20 to 40 minutes to get in or out of BKC
Difficult to get cabs even at exorbitant rates
Infrastructure has reached peak utilization and no traffic
Why banking has outperformed the market : another eye-opening chart
In 20 years:
Bank credit growth : 1700%
Nifty Bank performance: 1700%
GDP growth : 1000%
So GDP growth = 11.5% compounded
Bank Nifty and Credit growth = 17% compounded
Credit growth is 1.4 times GDP growth
The biggest risk to markets (equity, bonds etc) is interest rates
Growth and inflation are both running too high in the developed economies (especially USA) and so Central Banks are hiking interest rates at record speed
US bond yields are now at levels last seen 17 -25 years
For the first time: The number of ๐ฟ๐๐ข๐๐ฉ ๐๐๐๐ค๐ช๐ฃ๐ฉ๐จ is now ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ง ๐ฉ๐๐๐ฃ the ๐ฃ๐ช๐ข๐๐๐ง ๐ค๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ญ ๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ช๐ง๐ฃ๐จ filed
# Demat accounts: 8.9 crores
# ITR filed for FY21: 5.89 crores
Demat number exploding, # ITRs is stagnant for a couple of years
1/2
Global debt has exploded post the pandemic. If the world was a country or company, what should be the credit rating?
350% debt to GDP
(Financial Times)
*Takes a deep breath*
RYAN GOSLING ๐ฅ CHRIS EVANS ๐ฅ ANA DE ARMAS ๐ฅ DHANUSH ๐ฅ REGร-JEAN PAGE ๐ฅ
THE GRAY MAN - directed by Anthony and Joe Russo arrives on July 22, only on Netflix!
*BRB, taking more deep breaths*
1/ Debt created by advanced economies to counter COVID and 2008 Global Financial Crisis is equal to that created during World War 2
Current debt/GDP is at the same level as during WW2.
Debt/GDP reduced from 1950 to 1980 by a phase of HIGH-Growth and HIGH-inflation for 30 years
Will Mumbai roads be at par with other cities in India now?
Fingers crossed. Current situation is dire.
Will there be planning for utilities / paver blocks eliminated? Or will we dig the good roads up again every year? Will they be rain-proof?
In 11 years, India's market cap is up 250% from 50 Lakh Crores to 175 Lakh Crores
In the same time total PSU companies' market cap is flat at around 15 Lakh Crores
Glass half full, or half empty?
2020: Covid:
๐ฐ๐๐ ๐๐ provides medicines to the world
2021: Covid:
๐ฐ๐๐ ๐๐ provides multiple vaccines to the world
2022: War, food shortage:
๐ฐ๐๐ ๐๐ provides food to the world
Indiaโs goodness shines, is a guiding light for the world
Proud to be ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ณ!!