Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl Twitter profile

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

NEW: My first 2022 Conservative leadership election forecast. I project that Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt will advance to the members' ballot, with a clear gap to Liz Truss in 3rd. In 2019, my top three forecast was out by just one vote; here's hoping for a similar result!

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

11 months

This is what my by-election model produces for Mid Bedfordshire atm: Votes CON: 32% (-28) LAB: 29% (+7) LDM: 23% (+10) GRN: 4% (-) Win chance CON: 43% LAB: 33% LDM: 23% OTH: 1% Conservatives could come through the middle on a low vote share if no Labour/Lib Dem co-operation.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

The results of my latest Conservative leadership election forecast, as exclusively revealed on @itvpeston . Penny Mordaunt is now expected to close the gap on Rishi Sunak in later rounds, leaving the two very close in the final round and advancing to the run-off.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Lunchtime endorsements update Rishi Sunak: 111 (+16 today) Boris Johnson: 54 (+3) Penny Mordaunt: 23 (+1) 188 / 357 MPs (53%) have endorsed a candidate. Tracker:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

💥 Very pleased to be able to reveal the results of our How Britain Voted analysis, using a sample of 53,000 unique respondents. Full demographic results are at the below link, but here's a short thread...

How Britain Voted 2024

We have completed our post-election analysis of the 2024 general election. Based on fieldwork from 52,907 respondents, we’ve weighted the responses to match the demographics and results in each...

www.focaldata.com

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Labour’s lead has climbed to 22 points in the latest @focaldataHQ poll, with Reform at another record high. 🔴 LAB: 43% (+1) 🔵 CON: 21% (-3) 🟣 RFM: 16% (+1) 🟠 LDM: 10% (+1) 🟢 GRN: 5% (-) Fieldwork 14–17 June

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Evening endorsements update Rishi Sunak: 126 (+15 since lunchtime*) Boris Johnson: 58 (+4) Penny Mordaunt: 25 (+2) * Rishi Sunak is now guaranteed a spot in the top two if he runs. Tracker:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

@OwenWntr 🚨 I think I've seen enough 🚨 🇧🇷 PROJECTION: Bar a coup from Jair Bolsonaro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be Brazil's next president.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Lunchtime endorsements update Rishi Sunak: 144 (+18 today) Boris Johnson: 61 (+3) Penny Mordaunt: 26 (+1) 231 / 357 MPs (65%) have endorsed a candidate. Tracker:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

We've all heard the stat that no Eurovision winner has finished lower than 4th with the jury, but theoretically how low can a televote winner finish and still win?

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

10 months

New UK polling averages LAB: 44.5% CON: 24.9% LDM: 10.8% RFM: 8.3% (📈 parliament high) GRN: 6.1% Labour leads by 19.5 points.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

🚨 First @focaldataHQ MRP of the campaign suggests Labour are on course for a 250-seat majority. 🔴 LAB: 450 seats 🔵 CON: 110 🟠 LDM: 50 🟡 SNP: 16 🟢 PCY: 2 🟣 RFM: 1 🟢 GRN: 1 Write-up:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Sunak now has more support from MPs who backed Boris Johnson in 2019 (31) than Johnson himself (26).

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

8 months

This is based on a 13.5-point Labour lead (as it estimates where don't knows will go). However, if we adjust to the latest regular YouGov poll (23-point lead), these would be the results: 🔴 LAB: 503 🔵 CON: 57 (!) 🟠 LDM: 46 Almost electoral oblivion if the polls don't move.

YouGov

@YouGov

8 months

YouGov's new MRP model finds Keir Starmer would win a 120-seat majority were the election held tomorrow Lab: 385 seats (+183 from GE2019) Con: 169 (-196) Lib Dem: 48 (+37) SNP: 25 (-23) Plaid: 3 (-1) Green: 1 (=) Reform UK: 0 (=) Fieldwork 12 Dec - 4 Jan

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

Will have to wait for more results to come in (especially Tory seats), but my initial feeling based on first couple of results is that Reform aren't going to win 13 seats.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

💥 Based on historic campaign polls, Labour is now on course for their biggest popular vote win *ever*. 📊 POLL AVG: Labour leads by 21.7 pts (+1.4) 🔮 FORECAST: Labour victory by 17.9 pts (+2.4) - 50% chance of a Labour win by 14–22 pts - 90% chance of a Labour win by 9–27 pts

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Lunchtime endorsements update Rishi Sunak: 57 (+19 today) Boris Johnson: 41 (+4) Penny Mordaunt: 18 (+3) Tracker:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Note: One Boris Johnson endorsement has been removed since this afternoon as there was no verifiable source for it. Guido Fawkes has also been removed as a source in the spreadsheet as some of their claims were not reliable.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

I suspect this may be the last update given the significant possibility Mordaunt withdraws by the morning after cutting a deal with Sunak, but I just wanted to say thanks to everyone who has used the tracker, added endorsements & retweeted my graphics over the last week.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Johnson picking up support across the board now. 'Squatting toad', anyone? 🐸

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

💥 Based on historic campaign polls, Labour is now likely to win the election by *more than 20 pts*. 📊 POLL AVG: Labour leads by 21.4 pts (+0.9) 🔮 FORECAST: Labour victory by 20.2 pts (+1.7) - 50% chance of a Labour win by 17–24 pts - 90% chance of a Labour win by 11–29 pts

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

@OwenWntr 🚨 Lula has taken over in the popular vote 🚨 Pretty much game over, but let's wait and see.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

Big win for the Lib Dems in Harrogate & Knaresborough. First key bellwether of Labour/Lib Dem tactical voting, and seems to be a very high number of tactical votes. Could wipe out a lot of Tory seats.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

This is quite the killer stat. The Conservatives fell by a whopping *42 points* among those who voted to Leave the EU in 2016, while ending up more-or-less stagnant with Remainers.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

@focaldataHQ These is your cheat sheet for identifying which pollster belongs in which group. Yellows and greens tend to show reduced Labour leads.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

7 months

The Conservatives are ~20 points behind Labour in the polls, but what does history tell us about their re-election chances? Using PollBasePro, I have estimated that based on historical polling, the government now has less than a 10% chance of winning re-election.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Current endorsement count Rishi Sunak: 50 (+12) Boris Johnson: 39 (+2) Penny Mordaunt: 18 (+3) Changes since midnight.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Lula is up between 6 and 9 points in some of the major cities in Brazil on Haddad's *second round* results from 2018 (when he got 45% of the vote). This could be over tonight, without the need for a run-off.

mathieu gallard

@mathieugallard

2 years

🇧🇷🗳️ Les résultats à ce stade dans les plus grandes villes : São Paulo : Lula 48,9% (Haddad 39,6%) Rio de Janeiro : Lula 42,3% (Haddad 33,6%) Brasilia : Lula 36,4% (Haddad 30%) Lula fait nettement mieux qu'Haddad *au second tour* en 2018.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

💥 Labour leads by 17 points in the first @focaldataHQ poll of the campaign. 🔴 LAB: 43% 🔵 CON: 26% 🟣 RFM: 12% 🟠 LDM: 9% 🟢 GRN: 6%

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

💥 Labour’s lead climbs to 19 points in the latest @focaldataHQ poll. 🔴 LAB: 44% (+1) 🔵 CON: 25% (-1) 🟣 RFM: 14% (+2) 🟠 LDM: 9% (-) 🟢 GRN: 5% (-1) Fieldwork 3–6 June

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Updated Conservative leadership election forecast suggests we're still on course for a Sunak vs Mordaunt head-to-head. Kemi Badenoch is today's biggest mover, rising to a predicted 5th place.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

There's been a lot of talk about Johnson losing momentum (which is true), but his position is possibly stronger than public declarations suggest. 🧵

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

The polls look like they're stabilising somewhat, with the exception of Reform. Overall polling average (vs Thursday): 🔴 LAB: 42.3% (+0.4) 🔵 CON: 20.9% (-0.5) 🟣 RFM: 15.7% (+0.9) 🟠 LDM: 10.8% (+0.2) 🟢 GRN: 5.8% (-) Labour leads by 21.4 points (+0.9)

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Based on the demographics of the remaining MPs, Rishi Sunak is now on course for over *200* nominations.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

@OwenWntr Brazil projection using municipality swings in areas with 50%+ counted (62.3% of the vote in) 🔴 Lula: 50.66% (+0.13) 🔵 Bolsonaro: 49.34% (-0.13) *Huge* move to Lula in the last minute. Projection is only heading in one direction...

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

@OwenWntr At this point, I would make Lula's chance of victory 90%+

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Put together a polling average for @focaldataHQ , splitting the pollsters based on whether they make any adjustment for don't knows. No adjustment: 🔴 LAB: 45.3% 🔵 CON: 22.6% Lead of 22.6 points Adjustment (incl. squeeze): 🔴 LAB: 43.2% 🔵 CON: 25.0% Lead of 18.2 points

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Evening endorsements update Rishi Sunak: 149 (+23 today) Boris Johnson: 62 (+4) Penny Mordaunt: 26 (+1) 237 / 357 MPs (66%) have endorsed a candidate. Tracker:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

1 year

% saying it was right to leave the EU (32%) is the joint-lowest YouGov has ever recorded, I believe. Not a good electoral strategy right now but not hard to see, given these age splits, a Labour govt in its second term facing pressure from a rejoin movement in next 10 years.

YouGov

@YouGov

1 year

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (29-30 Mar) Con: 26% (+3 from 21-22 Mar) Lab: 46% (-3) Lib Dem: 9% (-1) Reform UK: 7% (+1) Green: 7% (+1) SNP: 3% (=)

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

The Muslim share of a seat's population is highly predictive of Labour vote losses. Labour's vote collapsed in their seats with higher Muslim populations. Of their seven losses, five were in seats where over a quarter of the population was Muslim according to the 2021 census.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

4 months

Rishi opening with the ‘remember when you liked me?’ bit.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Can't shake the feeling that the SNP are in deep trouble. They'll now be forced to choose between an unpopular Sturgeonite and social conservatives. Assuming his approval ratings are fairly soft, Yousaf seems like the better electoral option, but not a good outcome for them.

Lewis Goodall

@lewis_goodall

2 years

NEW: Angus Robertson says he *won’t* stand for leader of the SNP and First Minister: “as the Father of two very young children the time is not right for me and my family to take on such a huge commitment.”

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Per our latest poll, the crossover age at which a voter becomes more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is now 68, 24 years higher than it was in 2019.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

1 year

Been working on by-election model v2.0, this time with party-by-party breakdowns. Will leave it to the constituency polls for the other by-elections, but here's what the model says for Somerton and Frome next week: LDM: 49% (+23) CON: 29% (-27) LAB: 9% (-3) GRN: 6% (+1)

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

10 months

The *actual* scandal here is the fact EE has been allowed to charge £11,000 for 6GB of data. Utterly ludicrous.

Sky News

@SkyNews

10 months

Scotland's health secretary, Michael Matheson, tells MSPs that he was unaware that 'other members of his family had made use of iPad data' which had led to an £11,000 bill. 📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Evening endorsements update Rishi Sunak: 84 (+12 since this afternoon) Boris Johnson: 48 (+2) Penny Mordaunt: 21 (+3) 153 / 357 MPs (43%) have endorsed a candidate. Tracker:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Sam Coates reporting that Braverman has gone for two reasons, one of which is because she shared secure information on a private phone.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

@focaldataHQ While only 4% of Labour’s vote has moved to the Lib Dems, the figure surges to 18% in CON-held seats where the Lib Dems got more than 20% last time around. Likewise, Lib Dem to Labour transfers climb to 26% in Conservative-held seats where Labour got more than 20% in 2019.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

The Conservatives only managed to retain half of their 2019 voters (52%). Roughly a quarter moved right and a quarter moved to their left (a point which the party would be wise to remember).

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

MRP final call from @focaldataHQ Seats 🔴 LAB: 444 🔵 CON: 108 🟠 LDM: 57 🟡 SNP: 15 🟢 PCY: 2 🟣 RFM: 2 🟢 GRN: 1 Votes (GB) 🔴 LAB: 40.0% 🔵 CON: 23.2% 🟣 RFM: 16.0% 🟠 LDM: 11.5% 🟢 GRN: 5.4%

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Reform actually *down* on 2019 in this Hartlepool poll. If their vote is this inefficient across the country, they'd struggle to win any seats even with a >15% vote share.

Owen Winter

@OwenWntr

3 months

Hartlepool voting intention LAB: 58% (+20) REF: 23% (-3) CON: 10% (-19) LDEM: 6% (+2) GRN: 2% (+2) @wethinkpolling / @TheEconomist , 30 May - 9 June

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Final forecast for Round 2 of the Conservative leadership election Sunak: 99 (+11) Mordaunt: 79 (+12) Truss: 56 (+6) Badenoch: 45 (+5) Tugendhat: 43 (+6) ----- Braverman: 35 (+3)

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Haven’t been around today bc of a force majeure but this reshuffle seems poor from Sunak. Re-appointment of Braverman is an open goal for Labour and it’s now much easier for him to be tied to the last government when it’s the exact same top team as Truss had post-Kwarteng.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

The so-called 'Blue Wall' (see chart for definition) fragmented three ways, with the Lib Dems winning a majority of the seats on just 32% of the vote. Labour's vote share was unchanged, yet they gained 9 seats — clear evidence of effective LAB/LDM tactical voting.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

4 months

Average of most recent polls from each firm by adjustment for don't knows: 🔴 No adjustment: 24-point Labour lead LAB 46 / CON 22 🟡 Squeeze question: 19-point Labour lead LAB 43 / CON 24 🟢 Reassigns don't knows: 17-point Labour lead LAB 43 / CON 26

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Final forecast for Round 3 of the Conservative leadership election Sunak: 105 (+4) Mordaunt: 90 (+7) Truss: 78 (+14) Badenoch: 54 (+4) ----- Tugendhat: 29 (-3)

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

@OwenWntr That's it from my projections tonight — I think they fared pretty well! Lula's victory should be officially confirmed soon. Bolsonaro would need to win the remaining votes by over 40 points to catch up.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

@OwenWntr 🚨 Final projection with 95% of the vote in 🚨 🔴 Lula: 50.9% 🔵 Bolsonaro: 49.1%

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Endorsements update... Rishi Sunak: 156 (+3 since Johnson withdrawal) Penny Mordaunt: 27 (+1) 183 / 357 MPs (51%) have endorsed one of the two candidates. Bar a huge comeback from Mordaunt, Sunak will be elected Prime Minister tomorrow. Tracker:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

I've created a forecasting model for estimating the final election lead based on historic campaign polling movement. 📊 POLL AVG: Labour lead by 20.0 pts 🔮 FORECAST: Labour victory by 15.1 pts - 50% chance of a Labour win by 11–19 pts - 90% chance of a Labour win by 5–25 pts

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

1 year

Televote 12s received: 2014 🇦🇹: 8 2015 🇸🇪: 3 2016 🇺🇦: 6 2017 🇵🇹: 12 2018 🇮🇱: 8 2019 🇳🇱: 2 2021 🇮🇹: 5 2022 🇺🇦: 28 2023 🇸🇪: 0 (ZERO) This is the first time *in history* that not a single country gave 12 televote points to the eventual winner.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

Labour won with all working-age groups, but went backwards with under 40s when compared with 2019.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

Bar any late entrants, this will be the final polling average of the campaign. 🔴 LAB: 39.4% (-0.7) 🔵 CON: 21.0% (-0.6) 🟣 RFM: 16.5% (+0.8) 🟠 LDM: 11.0% (-0.1) 🟢 GRN: 6.5% (+0.9) Labour leads by 18.4 points (-0.1)

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Afternoon endorsements update Rishi Sunak: 72 (+34 today) Boris Johnson: 46 (+9) Penny Mordaunt: 18 (+3) Tracker:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Almost half the vote now counted in São Paulo, and Bolsonaro has fallen below 50% 🔵 Bolsonaro: 49.5% (-3.5) 🔴 Lula: 39.2% (+22.8) Things are starting to look very good for Lula.

Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Big caveats apply, but with a third of the vote counted in São Paulo, by far Brazil's largest region, the results are: 🔵 Bolsonaro: 50.4% (-2.6) 🔴 Lula: 38.4% (+22.0) Note here: Lula needs a gain of 20.7 points nationally to hit 50% in round one.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

I can only find four seats where Reform are rated as the favourites in the exit poll. Looks like there will be a lot of seats in which they're given a 5-10% chance or so. There'll be a huge confidence interval on their seat number.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

The Conservatives fell be 27 points among non-degree holders, with all the other major parties trending upwards. Labour ended up going backwards with university-educated voters.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Penny Mordaunt has picked up her first switcher, with former Truss backer Mary Robinson endorsing her in a statement.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Conservative leadership election endorsement leaderboard, coloured by who MPs backed in July. Rishi Sunak: 38 Boris Johnson: 37 Penny Mordaunt: 15 90 / 357 MPs (25%) have endorsed a candidate so far.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Evidence that *both* major parties are losing votes now, in stark contrast to the last two campaigns. Overall polling average (since y'day): 🔴 LAB: 43.7% (-0.4) 🔵 CON: 21.9% (-0.5) 🟣 RFM: 14.2% (+0.6) 🟠 LDM: 10.0% (+0.4) 🟢 GRN: 5.4% (-) Labour leads by 21.8 points (+0.1)

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

With special thanks to @OwenWntr for the code, I'm going to try to forecast the results of the Brazilian election using the voting data as it comes through.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Updated cheat sheet for pollster don't know methodologies following YouGov's change. Yellows and greens tend to show reduced Labour leads.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

7 months

This is what my by-election model produced for Wellingborough. LAB: 42% (+16) CON: 37% (-25) Note: This is not a poll and cannot account for local factors, but it gives an idea of a baseline by-election result in this constituency.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 years

Striking statistic from an article I'm working on: since 1979, the Liberal Democrats (incl. Liberal/SDP) have won more Conservative-held seats in by-elections when the Tories were in government (16) than the Conservatives themselves (14).

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

As I mentioned last week, the forecast is now moving aggressively towards the polling average. Historically speaking, there is now a 1-in-3 chance of Labour winning the popular vote by more than *20 points*.

Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Over the next week, the forecast will start to move aggressively towards the current polling average, as polls start to become much more predictive of the final election result.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

South of England crosstab… 🔴 LAB: 27% 🟠 LDM: 23% 🔵 CON: 20% 🟣 RFM: 20% 😳

YouGov

@YouGov

3 months

Latest YouGov voting intention (12-13 Jun): Reform now 1pt ahead of the Tories for the first time, although this is still within the margin of error Con: 18% (no change from 10-11 Jun) Lab: 37% (-1) Reform UK: 19% (+2) Lib Dem: 14% (-1) Green: 7% (-1) SNP: 3% (+1)

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

@OwenWntr Brazil projection using municipality swings in areas with 50%+ counted (68.5% of the vote in) 🔴 Lula: 50.72% (+0.04) 🔵 Bolsonaro: 49.28% (-0.04) I don't want to make the call yet, but...

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

8 months

Add in some extra tactical voting (25% of Lib Dems and Greens opting for Labour in close seats) and the Conservatives would be reduced to just SIX (6) seats.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

It's election week! With three days to go, a voting-intention gap remains between the two groups of pollsters. Overall polling average: 🔴 LAB: 40.2% (-1.1) 🔵 CON: 20.7% (-) 🟣 RFM: 16.4% (+0.1) 🟠 LDM: 11.4% (+0.2) 🟢 GRN: 5.7% (-0.1) Labour leads by 19.5 points (-1.2)

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Those 'leaked' semi-final results looked fake to me, so I set about proving why with data. The televote/jury split would be unprecedented for a semi-final. If the chart below doesn't make the point enough: the 'leaked' result would be on the 99.99999998th percentile of the data.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

17 days

🇺🇸 Our latest polling finds Kamala Harris ahead in five out of seven swing states, but the race is currently too close to call with many results within the margin of error. Mini write-up here:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Poll-based forecast looks to have done very well tonight, too.

Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Final Brazilian election polling average (polls weighted by first round accuracy and adjusted for house effects): 🔴 Lula: 51.3% (+2.8) 🔵 Bolsonaro: 48.7% (+5.5) Changes with round 1. It could be a very close result tonight.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Latest Conservative leadership election forecast Final round (changes with last update) Sunak: 127 (-2) Mordaunt: 126 (-7) Truss: 103 (+8) Truss is gaining ground, but not enough. I'll publish another update ahead of Monday's vote.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Labour's current 28-point poll lead (in red) produces an expected popular vote victory of around 8 points at the next election, looking at historical trends. I've used @PoliSciJack , @mansillo and @markpack 's invaluable PollBasePro to plot historic poll leads.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

Their vote shares have gone up significantly in the first two seats, but not quite as much as the exit poll would have suggested based on my own modelling (which had quite a steep Reform slope).

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

Despite Reform's climb, Labour's lead has been fairly stable during the campaign. 📊 POLL AVG: Labour leads by 20.6 pts (-0.8) 🔮 FORECAST: Labour victory by 20.1 pts (-0.1) - 50% chance of a Labour win by 17–24 pts - 90% chance of a Labour win by 12–29 pts

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

I do think this is worth noting. I'm not sure on the ins and outs of exit poll methodology, but Brexit Party only standing in Labour seats last time may cause some issues.

Owen Winter

@OwenWntr

2 months

If this plays out, it'll be pretty shocking. Have to wonder how the exit poll handles the 2019 Brexit Party vote

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Whilst I don’t believe personally that Labour is only 3 points higher than 2019, I think it’s actually a good thing that pollsters are trying different things and certainly not herding this time around.

Britain Elects

@BritainElects

3 months

📊 Labour lead at 16pts Westminster voting intention LAB: 36% (-1) CON: 20% (+2) REF: 18% (-1) LDEM: 14% (-) GRN: 7% (-) via @YouGov , 17 - 18 Jun

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

Britain became *a lot* more marginal last night. Number of seats within a... 5-point margin 2019: 55 2024: 113 (+58) 10-point margin 2019: 125 2024: 221 (+96)

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

Final endorsements update for tonight Rishi Sunak: 95 (+11 since this evening) Boris Johnson: 51 (+3) Penny Mordaunt: 22 (+1) 168 / 357 MPs (47%) have endorsed a candidate. Tracker:

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

4 months

Nonsensical. Not only should you not assume a uniform swing when all evidence shows Labour’s vote becoming more efficient, the local election PNS is not comparable to a general election result. If you disagree, I’ll take the under on the Lib Dems getting 17%!

John Rentoul

@JohnRentoul

4 months

Sky News projection from Prof Michael Thrasher: Labour on course to be largest party at general election - short of overall majority

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

Labour successfully rebuilt the Red Wall despite climbing just three points in vote share. The Conservatives were wiped out in Red Wall areas, losing all 28 of the seats they won in 2019.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

4 months

🚨 Some personal news: now is probably a good time to announce that this month I joined @focaldataHQ as their new Data Journalist.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

Agreed. Lib Dems claiming early victory in a lot of seats that were expected to be quite close based on MRPs and exit poll %.

Sam Freedman

@Samfr

2 months

Tories are not getting 131 seats.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Latest forecast sees Labour's lead increase and the range of results narrowing. 📊 POLL AVG: Labour leads by 20.3 pts (+0.1) 🔮 FORECAST: Labour victory by 15.5 pts (+0.2) - 50% chance of a Labour win by 12–19 pts - 90% chance of a Labour win by 6–25 pts

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 months

Reform are very heavy favourites (99% and 98%) to take the two Barnsley seats from Labour.

Exit poll: What is the forecast election result in my constituency?

Use our look-up to find out what result the exit poll forecasts for your constituency.

news.sky.com

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

@OwenWntr Brazil projection using municipality swings in areas with 50%+ counted (65.6% of the vote in) 🔴 Lula: 50.66% (-) 🔵 Bolsonaro: 49.34% (-) Lula is about to take over in the popular vote. Looks like it's nearly game over.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

2 years

My final forecast for Round 1 of the Conservative leadership election Sunak: 100 Mordaunt: 57 Truss: 50 Tugendhat: 36 Badenoch: 36 Braverman: 31 Zahawi: 26 (OUT) Hunt: 22 (OUT) Updated forecast and graphic will be published after the vote this afternoon.

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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Updated split polling average No adjustment: 🔴 LAB: 45.9% (+0.6) 🔵 CON: 22.8% (+0.2) Lead of 23.1 points Adjustment (incl. squeeze): 🔴 LAB: 43.2% (-) 🔵 CON: 25.6% (+0.6) Lead of 17.6 points Contrary to expectations, the gap between the two groups has actually grown.

Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl

3 months

Put together a polling average for @focaldataHQ , splitting the pollsters based on whether they make any adjustment for don't knows. No adjustment: 🔴 LAB: 45.3% 🔵 CON: 22.6% Lead of 22.6 points Adjustment (incl. squeeze): 🔴 LAB: 43.2% 🔵 CON: 25.0% Lead of 18.2 points

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