BankingNewsGuy @BankingNewsGuy Twitter profile

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

2 years

@ChuckCallesto Yeah, because his kids are on Ukrainian energy boards too. He doesn’t want anyone pulling the rug back on that cluster.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

Spoke to a few bankers today… No one has pipeline They are starting to see outer bands of the economic hurricane starting come ashore Regulators are becoming stricter and requesting more reporting on a more frequent basis Also, they said they expect robust hiring in their

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

3 months

Listen to what is going on in the Texas housing market. Foreclosures are accelerating and at the end of the video he says it’s not due to job loss, it’s due to taxes and insurance doubling. What was once an $1,800 payment is now $3,200-$3,800. The average person/family could

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

3 months

900!? Wonder if an SFR operator went belly up? @m3_melody ⁦ @KirkChivas ⁩ ⁦ @GayBearRes ⁩

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

Add Florida to the list of states where local municipalities are looking at implementing restrictions for short term rentals. Feels like this is gaining significant momentum nationwide. @texasrunnerDFW @m3_melody @DiMartinoBooth

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

Heard from a banker today they are seeing more and more car dealers struggle with payments on their floor plan. What happens when entire dealer lots are repossessed and sent to auction? More downward pressure on vehicle prices. Story to watch and interested to hear if anyone

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

4 months

We are at that point in the cycle where sellers have absolutely no idea how to price their home. This home in Parrish, FL has been on the market since Jan. 3rd and hasn’t sold. After a few price cuts, the seller says screw it, I’m bumping the price $75k. @KirkChivas @m3_melody

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

Bankers retiring at an accelerated rate right now. Too much stress and many don’t feel like going through another significant downturn. Are the next gen of bankers ready or will they be thrust into positions they aren’t ready for during one of the most difficult banking

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

Banks that were telling me six months ago that they feel confident in their underwriting and don’t foresee much stress in their portfolio… are now saying there’s stress in their portfolio and loans are starting to go bad. We will start to see things accelerate over the coming

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

9 months

@norriegche07 @m3_melody This is fraud

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

9 months

Shocking that people in the AirBnB business don’t realize they are in the hospitality industry. This is a regular issue hotels deal with and they do it with a smile on their face.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

@NipseyHoussle Most realtors are just unlocking doors for people. There’s software out there that allows for self tours in the rental world and it’s only a matter of time before it migrates to the transaction world.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

1 year

This was sent to me recently on LinkedIn. Not a good sign of things to come. @texasrunnerDFW @DiMartinoBooth @danjmcnamara

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

9 months

People always ask why is multifamily getting hit so hard? A quick 🧵: Multifamily properties were trading at cap rates around 3.5-4 from 2020-2022. Debt was extremely cheap and occupancy was at all time highs.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

3 months

Just so we are all on the same page… people continue to compare what we are going through to ‘08. In CRE it’s actually much worse, but we’ve been able to hide the distress through loan mods and a variety of other band-aids. We are just starting to see the reckoning and what

zerohedge

@zerohedge

3 months

The Entire System Is Crumbling! Major Red Flags Are Popping Up For Banks, Small Businesses And Retailers

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

@survivalspence @DiMartinoBooth Potential loans the bank is going to make

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

8 months

Bankers already running around with their hair on fire due to BTFP ending. This is the banking industry’s tide going out moment and we will see shortly who’s been swimming naked.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

7 months

China will be the first domino. Evergrande liquidation is worst case scenario and I don’t think most who have monitored this situation thought it would get here.

Danielle DiMartino Booth

@DiMartinoBooth

7 months

Um. WOW. “Chinese property developer Evergrande faces imminent liquidation after its overseas creditors failed to reach 11th-hour deal this weekend to restructure sprawling real-estate company” Remember China’s financial system contained & controlled. cc @ChinaBeigeBook @WSJ

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

3 months

Now is the time to hit the panic button and get as creative/aggressive as possible to handle non-performing loans. The distress is only going to pick up from here and we will need creative solutions to the very large problem we have in CRE.

Piker

@PikerCapital

3 months

WILD stat from @cred_iq 🤯 Their distress rate for commercial real estate CLOs surged over 100bps in May to 9.74%. It was 1.5% just 12 months ago.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

4 months

What area of the bank is getting hit with sudden retirements? Compliance. Many banks across the country are seeing this happen and are now at risk.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

9 months

Met with numerous bankers last week to discuss the overall economy, sentiment, and how they are seeing 2024 shape up. On the economy: Most were in strong economic states but felt we were in early stages of contraction. Sentiment: Everyone in banking is practically begging the

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

3 months

Talked to a few regulators yesterday and they said they are having many conversations with banks about how they are risk rating loans right now, specifically CRE. Many should be put into a non-performing category but most banks have gotten complacent and continue to put troubled

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

Banks are freaking out right now. They are trying to keep a lid on it but things are close to boiling over.

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

11 months

American Banker article calls for TARP 2.0 to ‘save banks’ from the apparent soft landing

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

3 months

There are a ton of banks with the proverbial deer in the headlights look right now. It’s like they are completely shocked the fed hasn’t cut rates yet.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

Bingo. WeWork has larger implications than most are admitting right now.

Aleksey Chernobelskiy

@chernobelskiy

10 months

WeWork currently operates out of 779 office locations Office real estate market is already struggling Nobody seems to be talking about the fact that WeWork will likely reject many of these leases during bankruptcy...

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

4 months

The oh shit button has been pushed by many banks leaving them playing catch up. Many didn’t think Powell would hold rates this high for this long and now, they are in crisis mode.

Daniel McNamara

@danjmcnamara

4 months

US banks selling commercial real estate loans to get ahead of stress, diversify | S&P Global Market Intelligence #CMBS

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

@MultifamilyMad Can confirm this sentiment is shared across banks and CU’s

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

5 months

There’s movement in CRE. Banks are increasing provisions and realizing losses. More volatility and distress ahead.

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

5 months

There were 625 tracked commercial real estate foreclosures in March, up 6% from February and 117% from the same time last year, $929bn still set to mature this year alone

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

If you read Invitation Homes most recent investor presentation, they cite @JBREC ’s data noting “national average single family rent growth has never had a meaningful decline in nearly forty years of tracking data.” I think they’re about to learn the meaning of the phrase “never

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

@TryloTheCreator Yeah, let me put sources on blast so people can harass them. 🤦

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

@GuyDealership EV anything except for Tesla = not moving

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

1 month

Multi-family is the biggest concern for most banks… not office

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

@texasrunnerDFW @WallStreetSilv The loans were predatory if we are being realistic. Colleges then started hiking tuition by 15%/year because they knew the government would provide the funding. So, if you think of it from a business perspective, by the end of the four years there were extreme cost overruns

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

@m3_melody I’d say “super-prime/ultra luxury” is experiencing some distress

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

5 months

Bankruptcy filings 📈. Banks are very worried about their C&I portfolios right now. Case in point Synovus just lost $18MM on a C&I loan to a private aviation company that went bankrupt.

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

5 months

US retail clothing giant Express has filed for bankruptcy

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

Interesting chart of the day courtesy of SFR Analytics. Look at how overly concentrated Invitation Homes is in the state of Florida (roughly 34% of their portfolio). That’s a lot of exposure in a state that is having a major affordability crisis, rental rates softening, and a

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

9 months

Fast forward to today: Vacancies ⬆️ , debt service costs ⬆️ , insurance/expenses are ⬆️ , and finally the last kick in the gut for MF operators is that rents are coming down due to oversupply and the highest number of new apartment units coming to market in 2024.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

Sentiment from many banks right (especially in the NE): Even though NYCB didn’t “fail” it has brought even more intense scrutiny on their CRE portfolios. Basically, what SVB did for deposits is what many feel NYCB did for their CRE portfolio. What this means is, banks are

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

One of my friends in FL just sent this to me. Someone check on AirBnB hosts in FL. Looks like A LOT of inventory will be hitting the market in the next year. My friend said a lot of hosts in the comments were hoping 2021 was coming back. How many hosts based their pro formas on

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

Great description of the housing market right now. I know he’s describing the CRE market right now but it fits residential right now too. Homeowners think that wild price appreciation was warranted but they are refusing to accept we are in a new paradigm now. @GRomePow

Shlomo Chopp

@ShlomoChopp

11 months

When the market goes up rapidly, everyone believes it will. When the market declines, many refuse to accept that it already has. “How is it even possible….?” “I’ll buy every last one at that price!!” They, my friends, are your counterparties. Happy Hunting!

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

Banks are getting desperate for rate cuts and will do Everything in their power to force central banks’ hand to lower rates.

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

6 months

Canadian Banks are pushing for the Bank of Canada to remove the ‘shelter’ component from the CPI basket which would result in an artificially lower inflation figure as they call for rate cuts

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

1 year

Forbes said the quiet part out loud. “The treacherous triangle of (1) banks with increasing default rates on office loans, (2) building owners with failing properties and (3) cities with declining tax revenues will put the entire system at risk”

Daniel McNamara

@danjmcnamara

1 year

The Growing Commercial Real Estate Threat Facing Our Economy #CMBS

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

2 months

Hypothetically, if Trump wins the election and is inaugurated, my real worry for the country and the world is that the establishment tries to weaponize the economy by systematically crashing it. We all know that our economy is over leveraged and sitting in a precarious spot. It

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

8 months

There isn’t a bank out there that is “safe”. They all have exposure to some type of risk, whether that is deposit, liquidity, or loan portfolio risk. 2024 will be a year banks will have to get creative to survive. Look for a lot of M&A activity in my opinion.

Melody Wright

@m3_melody

8 months

"JPMorgan Chase...had $1.04 trillion in uninsured deposits in its domestic branches and another $437.6 billion in deposits in foreign offices that lack FDIC insurance, bringing its total deposits that lack FDIC insurance to $1.48 trillion."

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

@politikaljunki A lot of them went through 08’ as well. Other than the Great Depression, they did go through the most difficult/stressful time in finance in the last 100 years.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

That was fast

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

6 months

The first project approved in San Francisco to convert vacant commercial space into housing in the wake of the pandemic has defaulted.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

9 months

To summarize: MF is getting hit so hard because it started at the lowest cap rates and has the farthest to fall.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

8 months

That last bit is extremely telling. If the FED ends their MBS buying, the housing market collapses. Without the FED backstopping the housing market, we would have real price discovery.

RECombatant

@windgineering

8 months

Housing bulls gloat there’s been no crash in public, under the banner they want to “help” people. Meanwhile, in backrooms of DC, they are lobbying & begging the $ printers to restart QE. There is so much FOMO smoke & mirrors in RE. This is what happens when $ is cheap to borrow.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

1 year

I regularly talk to accounting firms and auditors for banks. Here’s what one had to say to me recently: regulators have no idea what they’re doing right now. If they come down hard on a bank, the regulator says they were too harsh with their report. If they have a positive

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

7 months

Insurance is by far the largest challenge for all property types in FL. Huge issue and it is being talked about regularly on the banking side when they are stressing their portfolios.

Aleksey Chernobelskiy

@chernobelskiy

7 months

Hearing about cases in Florida where insurance costs for multifamily properties have risen to 40% of a given tenant's rent on a per unit basis 40% of a tenant's rent going straight to insurance... not sustainable This isn't talked about enough

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

@AdvisorJohn Jaded by your wealthy DC region. The stress is real and banks that were telling me everything is good six months ago are telling me now that loans are starting to go bad. There are sub pockets of the country that are insulated or aren’t feeling a slow down at all.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

Happy end to the BTFP day. Now we get to see how stable our banking system really is.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

2 months

You don’t see this everyday. Most banks would not be disclosing that losses would potentially be above and beyond what a regulatory agency communicated.

The Coastal Journal

@1CoastalJournal

2 months

🚨FED DISCOUNT WINDOW : **Banking Sector Stress Increases** **Fed Discount-Window Loans:** $7.03B (up from $6.68B) 📈 - Fed's Stance: Higher rates for longer (Fed Gov. Bowman) - JPMorgan:Stress test losses may exceed Fed disclosures

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

At this point, people should be going to jail. Seems like every other day we are hearing about emergency landings or malfunctions, a key witness “committed s*****e”, and now they are destroying evidence. I won’t be taking any chances with my life or my family’s flying in a

unusual_whales

@unusual_whales

6 months

BREAKING: Boeing, $BA, are unable to find the records documenting who worked on the Air Alaska plane, per the NTSB.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

Yep, every bank and CRE investor is trying to act like the problem isn’t that bad while in private everyone is freaking out.

Melody Wright

@m3_melody

11 months

"Many deals are marketed behind the scenes as sellers look to avoid a public process that might reveal the severely discounted value of their assets. Value downgrades could in turn spook the broader world of real estate investors" h/t @JuliusMiami

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

7 months

Heard rumors recently that $NYCB and their Chief Risk Officer had parted ways. Now the stock is down over 30% premarket. Hold on tight, things could get rocky for regional banks.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

1 year

@realEstateTrent So true. There’s an entire cohort where investing in real estate has been relatively easy their entire career.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

1 month

Excited to hear @m3_melody ’s take on the housing market. Banks have highlighted the strength of residential within their loan portfolios and would be interested to hear her take. From the banks I’ve spoken with they feel that their borrowers have so much equity in their

Adam Taggart

@menlobear

1 month

In a private discussion today w/ analyst Melody Wright @m3_melody she shared how shocked she is by how quickly the housing market is starting to unravel Thankfully, she accepted my offer to record an impromptu interview on this topic tomorrow -- it will be released on Sunday

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

4 months

What’s becoming apparent in the community banking space: There’s been significant under investment in tools to manage their portfolios effectively. On a positive note, smart banks have put an emphasis on this for 2024 and 2025. Banks making investments in portfolio/risk

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

5 months

Next come the smaller banks

zerohedge

@zerohedge

5 months

Big banks are finally starting to pass CRE losses through the income statement.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

8 months

Everything feels like it’s coming to a head in 2024. Anyone else get this feeling?

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

Powell told a house panel that there will be bank failures due to CRE but it won’t pose a systemic risk… LOL

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

2 months

Not looking good for China’s banking industry right now. When the majority of your economy is dependent on real estate and those prices continuing to go up, a 50% correction wrecks the ponzi every time.

Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital

@Sina_21st

2 months

Jiangxi Bank of China goes under China's banking sector is facing a full-scale crisis. In just one week, 40 banks disappeared, absorbed into larger institutions. Today, Jiangxi Bank of China went under, further escalating the crisis. China's smaller banks are struggling with

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

9 months

Take a property with $1MM in NOI at a 3.5% cap rate to start and watch what happens each 100 bp increase in cap rate: Starting value $28,571,428 4.5% cap - $22,222,222 (⬇️ 22%) 5.5% cap - $18,181,818 (⬇️ 18%) 6.5% cap - $15,384,615 (⬇️ 15%) 7.5% cap - $13,333,333 (⬇️ 13%)

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

I think I said something about this in the last 48 hrs… There will be more substantial layoffs in the banking industry before the end of the year

unusual_whales

@unusual_whales

10 months

Citigroup plans to announce major lay-offs Monday, in a massive restructuring that will eventually result in tens of thousands of positions being eliminated from the bank, per FT.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 days

Caught up with a friend today that rents through @InvitationHomes and what he told me made me pause and wonder how bad the rental market is in greater Tampa. He said they are trying to raise rent $100 when they are in a BTR sub that has the exact same home/floor plan going for

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

Things are changing rapidly in banking right now. It went from how are we solving the industries problems to how do I protect my own job in a matter of weeks. I suspect it will only pick up steam over the next few months.

unusual_whales

@unusual_whales

11 months

The five largest U.S. banks, excluding JPMorgan Chase, have already eliminated a combined 20,000 positions this year, per CNBC. Read more:

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

👀👀👀

unusual_whales

@unusual_whales

10 months

Big banks are quietly cutting thousands of employees, and more layoffs are coming, per CNBC.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

A theme in banking that’s been there but has been exacerbated by COVID and SVB/Signature bank blow ups: severe burnout and a brain drain from the industry. It’s not being talked about enough and could be a source for more financial crises in the future.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

1 year

Canadian banks are f@&cked. The Canadian housing market is even more out of wack than America’s and could be a catalyst for economic headwinds felt by worldwide.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

8 months

There’s a theme that keeps popping up… anytime you bring up issues with the current way we are doing things in financial markets, i.e. FED buying MBS, interest rate hikes/cuts, inflation due to 40% of money of created being pumped into the economy over a 2 year period, the list

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

@maxfisherRE Hotter take The fed has been propping up the housing market the last 15 years through their MBS purchase program. They are slowly unwinding that program. What happens when the fed is no longer involved in the housing market?

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

3 months

Inflation is crushing the middle class

unusual_whales

@unusual_whales

3 months

Making $150,000 is considered 'lower middle class' in California, Virginia, Washington, and Arizona, per GOBankingRates

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

There are many sectors wobbling in the economy right now but banks know, once the consumer goes, everything else goes with it. The consumer is barely hanging on by a thread and we are in the end game now.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

The distress in multifamily is going to catch everyone off guard. People paid way too much for MF properties over the last five years and operators are starting to get desperate.

Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA

@GRDecter

11 months

🚨JUST IN: U.S. Commercial Property Distress Hits 10-Year High Value of distressed commercial real estate nears $80 billion. Now less than HALF the 2008 financial crisis levels. Blackstone, Brookfield and Goldman Sachs have defaulted or relinquished offices to lenders this

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

8 months

There are a lot of people underwater on their EV’s right now. Most people are waking up to the impracticality of them. Interested to see how this plays out for banks and especially credit unions auto loan portfolios.

Financelot

@FinanceLancelot

8 months

BREAKING: Hertz to liquidate 1/3rd of its EV fleet due to lack of demand. Company plans to reinvest the money into internal combustion vehicles.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

@realEstateTrent Or data is being manipulated. Revisions have been a big theme over the last year or so.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

8 months

They are also counting on the fed cutting rates to ease the pain. I’m not sure we see rate cuts until late in 2024 which may be too late for a number of banks. Time will tell…

zerohedge

@zerohedge

8 months

Banks Terminate 60,000 Workers In One Of The Bleakest Years For The Industry Since 2008

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

5 months

Valley is one of those banks that have said, not us, we underwrote loans very conservatively, and our CRE book is bulletproof. Eventually, this type of arrogance comes back to bite.

Spencer Hakimian

@SpencerHakimian

1 year

Valley National Bank has the highest exposure to commercial real estate loans relative to its capital of any bank in the U.S (Chart 1). (1/6)

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

2 months

Of the 41 anonymous banks portfolios Moody’s evaluated: “Moody’s found that, on average, the banks should be holding about twice the amount of reserves they currently have to cover potential office losses.” Banks may see higher office loan losses than they expect: Moody's

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

@texasrunnerDFW Where have we seen these headlines before? Oh yeah, 07-08.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

5 months

You have to play the hand in front of you, not the hand you think you’ll get 12 months from now.

Aleksey Chernobelskiy

@chernobelskiy

5 months

Likelihood of fed rate cut by June went from nearly 100% to 18% Reminder to not play macroeconomist

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

The eye watering speed at which we are seeing gigantic headline after gigantic headline is wild right now.

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

10 months

Citizens Bank - the largest bank owned wholesale lender - to exit wholesale mortgage lending

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

7 months

“It has identified a SIGNIFICANT number of fraudulent appraisals”

Melody Wright

@m3_melody

7 months

The bezzle is <finally> being unearthed Be wary as it will be found at every turn...gasping as it creeps from the shadows Texas and Florida will be where the battle begins...

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

11 months

@realEstateTrent Banks were caught with their pants down. They’ve been worried about deposits since SVB and didn’t put the amount of attention they needed to on CRE. Now, because they didn’t put the right tools in place to handle the coming maturities, they are scrambling. Chao is now ensuing.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

1 month

Shocked NYCB hasn’t gone into receivership yet.

The Coastal Journal

@1CoastalJournal

1 month

**🚨BANK CRASH ALERT 🚨** - **New York Community Bancorp (NYCB.N) reported a second-quarter loss worse than expected** - **Bigger provisions due to pressures in its multi-family loan book** - **Shares fell 9% pre-market**

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

@menlobear @nickgerli1 Everyone thinks an economy crashing looks like a stock market crash. As everyone is learning, it takes a lot of time for forces in the economy to play out. There are many ways to plug holes and bale water out of a sinking boat but eventually the boat still sinks.

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

You will be seeing more and more of this over the next year. This is what happens when credit completely freezes.

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

10 months

Per source, US Bank may be laying off up to 45% of their automotive division and it is ongoing today

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

2 months

After Norinchukin kicked off a fire sale in bonds, how many more headlines will we see like this?

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

2 months

The Bank of Hawaii, hit by unrealized bond losses, is eyeing a large capital raise #MacroEdge

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

8 months

Everyone has unrealized losses

Gold Telegraph ⚡

@GoldTelegraph_

8 months

BREAKING NEWS BANK OF AMERICA REPORTED UNREALIZED LOSSES OF $98 BILLION ON SECURITIES IN THE FOURTH QUARTER Who does not have unrealized losses?

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

7 months

👀

Daniel McNamara

@danjmcnamara

7 months

CRE Valuations Dropped 42 Percent on Average in 2023 ⁦ @cred_iq ⁩ #CMBS

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

8 months

Banks have rich data but most don’t have an easy way to report it. Generally reporting is done through excel. Senior leadership, board members, and regulators are requesting more and more ad hoc reports from banks’ credit teams and from what I hear they just don’t have the

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

3 months

Should do wonders for CRE values

zerohedge

@zerohedge

3 months

20% Of New York City Hotels Are Now Migrant Shelters

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

2 months

Real estate debt crisis spreads to formerly secure bonds

Commercial Real Estate Debt Crisis Spreads to Formerly Secure Bonds

With delinquencies and defaults rising on maturing CRE debt, the roiling crisis worsens with signs that single-asset, single-borrower bonds aren't as solid as investors long thought.

www.inc.com

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

Municipalities across the US are collectively 💩💩 there pants as they see asset values in free fall and contracting tax revenues.

Daniel McNamara

@danjmcnamara

6 months

Boston city councilors call for hearings on downtown, tax base #CMBS

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

10 months

Japan is in a world of hurt right now. Their debt @ 250% of GDP is only manageable at 0% interest rates. Notice I didn’t say sustainable because interest rates are now just speeding up what was inevitable. Japan could very well be the first domino since they seem to be having

MacroEdge

@MacroEdgeRes

10 months

Bank of Japan announces unscheduled emergency bond purchase operation

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

Even the most aggressively conservative underwritten deals couldn’t withstand value declines like these. Even if you underwrote this at a 30% LTV you’d be looking at a 100% LTV today.

Triple Net Investor

@TripleNetInvest

6 months

A Manhattan office tower just sold at a shocking 70% discount to what it last sold for The 778k sq ft tower at 222 Broadway sold for $150M The building last sold for $500M back in 2014 Even NYC is seeing massive distress and destruction in values for prime commercial real

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

4 months

You better be renting if you have a home from DR Horton or Lennar. The additional expense of constantly fixing the shoddy work of their contractors will crush a homeowner.

Darth Powell

@VladTheInflator

4 months

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

9 months

So you can see that when properties get overvalued, the first declines are the steepest. Then throw in the fact that NOI probably came down to $800k due to expense increases and inability to raise rents. Just going from 3.5 to 4.5 with $200k less in NOI would correspond to:

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BankingNewsGuy

@BankingNewsGuy

6 months

@unusual_whales How about pushing money into sustainable farming. Alternative meat 🤮just creates more problems for people’s health. But… maybe that’s the end goal. Continue to create a sicker and sicker society so the elite ruling class can profit off of them.

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