The leading contenders to be the next U.S. president present a choice between two radically different visions for the future world order. One seeks to reform the multilateral framework. The second sees the order as antithetical to U.S. interests.
The fact that Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be the first woman and also the first Jew to lie in state at the US Capitol is a sign of how far we have come and how far we have to go.
The three cities with the highest gun homicide rates — Jackson, Miss.; Gary, Ind.; and St. Louis — had rates double that of Chicago’s or more. All are in states with more permissive gun laws than Illinois.
‘Joe Biden last week won 16% of the nation’s counties, but those counties account for 70% of the nation’s economic activity, Brookings analysts report. By contrast, President Trump won 84% of counties, accounting for less than 30% of GDP.’
The pod apparently fell into the Atlantic largely intact,
Thus, from an intelligence standpoint, Pentagon officials believe that the strange week-long balloon voyage was ultimately of more benefit to the United States than to China.
Germany will make concrete proposals to Biden on next steps for transatlantic cooperation on China, climate and the pandemic. And so it begins
@hanskundnani
Significant - German Foreign Minister
@HeikoMaas
says Berlin will make “concrete proposals” to the Biden administration on how transatlantic partners can work together on 1) China 2) climate 3) pandemic
Several days surrounded by the leading thinkers in India is a reminder of the stark contrast between Europe and India on the Trump factor. No one I spoke to in India expressed any concern about the outcome of the US election.
As the world turns its gaze towards India and the G20, remember what Foreign Minister said at the T20 Summit in Mysore this July.
The G20 is about getting India ready for the world, and getting the world ready for India.
Travelling back to London from Munich. A few thoughts.
Emerging sense that Munich Security Conference needs to engage the Global South, but is at a loss as to how to do it (or what to name it)
A sensational conclusion to India’s T20 Summit at Mysore Palace with
@samirsaran
, Chair,
@T20org
and our host (and a phenomenal master of ceremony to boot)
"It's easier to be a parent this morning, it's easier to be a dad. It's easier to tell your kids character matters, it matters. Telling the truth matters. Being a good person matters."
Initial data on protests in the US. The protests are overwhelmingly nonviolent. The scale of protests is unprecedented. They have taken place in all 50 states, in cities but also in small conservative towns, many places have seen more than one per day.
Freedom House issues a warning about the 2020 Presidential election after voters waited in line for hours at yesterday’s primary and absentee ballots failed to arrive in Georgia (a key state in the November election).
Quite extraordinary but true, it is now *too late* to vote by mail. And all voters in all states are now advised to vote in person or take their ballots to recognised drop-boxes and government offices. The US Postal Service isn’t moving fast enough to deliver newly posted ballots
I have been thinking about this a lot. It is also a period when the US begins to get darker and colder and the virus may not yet be under control. We are all focused on the November 3 election but Nov 4th to January 20th is a time for vigilance.
Three takeaways. The rural-urban divide is stark, and the battle for voters is in the suburbs, the umbrella terms 'Blacks', 'Asians', and 'Latinos' no longer capture voting patterns. And, detailed data on demographic groups is only available next year.
Stunned to hear new Freedom House figures that only 20% of the world’s population now live in Free countries. The struggle to defend Ukraine is a struggle also for a way of life that is at risk nearly everywhere, that must be defended, that must not be taken for granted.
I stopped by the Raisina fellows dinner and could see this is a Foreign Minister who understands the importance of the next generation….
@samirsaran
@orfonline
and
#RaisinaDialogue2023
all standout for investment in young professionals. A wise nation looks after its young.
Biden’s highest ratings are among Black voters (78% approve of his job), Latinos (52%), urban voters (50%) and women (48%)
Biden’s lowest numbers are among suburban voters (43%), men (38%), white voters (37%), rural voters (29%) and independents (28%)
We are delighted to announce that
@JulianVenturaV
has been appointed an Associate Fellow on the US and Americas programme
@ChathamHouse
. Julian was previously Mexico’s Deputy Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Under Secretary for North America, and Amb to China and the UK.
Not skipping a beat. High level US India meetings continue post India election, as they will after the U.S. elections. Fewer relationships are less subject to partisan politics than the U.S. and India.
Delighted to welcome US NSA
@JakeSullivan46
in New Delhi today morning.
A comprehensive discussion on a broad range of bilateral, regional and global issues.
Confident that India-US strategic partnership will continue to advance strongly in our new term.
🇮🇳 🇺🇸
Intelligent by
@Freedland
. What supporters of ‘defund the police’ meant and what voters heard were not the same thing. (The only time I had to manage an extended family conflict was on this. Not a good slogan.) Obama is right, words matter.
Biden announces he would deploy the military to build hospitals to cope with the Coronavirus. Really only one issue and it is focusing minds in the country and across the world.
#DemocraticDebate
‘Only six states — Florida, Washington, Vermont, California, Illinois and Hawaii — have increased the minimum purchase age for long guns to 21, according to the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. The majority did so following the 2018 massacre in Parkland, Florida’
@raisinadialogue
No real or at least no urgent sense that the lives of more than 1 million innocent people in Rafah are on the brink and many of those most able to influence this outcome were gathered in Munich. Best panel on this and brilliantly moderated by
@malloch_brown
not well attended
I cannot say how much I am looking forward to this. Really, there is no better time than the present - and no better place than Chatham House - to have this kind of opportunity.
We're very pleased to announce that Leslie Vinjamuri (
@londonvinjamuri
) will be taking up the role of Head of the US and the Americas Programme and Dean of
@QEII_Academy
on Monday. Please join us in welcoming Leslie!
President Biden writes about his trip to Europe. One of the most striking things about this piece is that he chose to publish it at home, not in Europe. In travelling abroad, the audience is domestic.
No doubt, the pressure on India to get off the fence is going to continue to grow. Including this from the FT editors.. India’s disappointing silence over Ukraine
Kaja Kallas
Prime Minister, Republic of Estonia makes powerful statement about role of history and absence of accountability in making dictatorship possible — compares Russia’s absence of accountability to Germany’s history of accountability.
ALERT.
We have now entered the two-week zone where London and New York are four hours apart (not five)
One of the most disorienting times in the annual calendar for anyone London based working with Americans.
Brilliant piece. “Elections are rarely, in the end, decided by the famous. Winning them takes an endless army of anonymous people, and this year they showed up.”
@raisinadialogue
@malloch_brown
Possible failing of Munich may be a broader failing of Europe which is inability (lack of desire?) to move beyond a world of elites.
“The departure of Mattis from govt service is proof that you cannot have it all. You have to walk if you are to remain the human being you were..before you went in. In the end, he could not do his job and serve the country as he knew it had to be served.”
It has been a long time since the US government has moved so swiftly and decisively to call out Russia in this way. An important and welcome change is afoot.
Mr. Navalny should be immediately released, and the perpetrators of the outrageous attack on his life must be held accountable. The Kremlin’s attacks on Mr. Navalny are not just a violation of human rights, but an affront to the Russian people who want their voices heard.
This is not the first time the ICC has issued an arrest warrant of a sitting head of state during an ongoing conflict. And it will eventually raise many of the same issues as it has before
Glad to see
@BBCJonSopel
keeping this issue alive. It's really unspeakably bad and damaging policy.
The borders between the USA and the UK can and should be opened sensibly.
Reminds me of a comment I heard a few years ago in Berlin, on the election of Donald Trump ‘the rest of the world will give America a pass once (but not twice) ’ for making that choice
Sure it’s an outlier. But look at all the other polls — at best Biden is essentially tied with Donald Trump, the four times indicted insurrrectionist who is running on a platform of personal revenge and says he is willing to terminate the Constitution.
Very exciting news for
@ChathamHouse
as we launch our Latin America Initiative. Dr Chris Sabatini, internationally recognised expert on Latin America’s economic development, democracy and foreign policy, will play leading role as Senior Research Fellow.
@ChrisSabatini
It’s official. I’ll be senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House London starting August 5. From there I will continue to work with my rocking team GlobalAmericans on exciting new projects & teaching at Columbia. Exciting.
November isn’t about Democrats vs Republicans or about policy. It is about what kind of democracy we want. Whether we value science and facts. And above all what our expectations are for decency from the Presidency. These are not partisan issues.
No doubt this is a grave, constitutional moment in British politics. But I am wary the Trump comparison. When you see men and women breaking the glass, climbing through the windows of Parliament, violently pushing police to the ground, the PM inciting them to insurrection..
By contrast, it felt like there wasn’t a single conversation at the Munich Security Conference in which the US election didn’t at some point feature (often it dominated)
Devastated to learn of the unexpected death of my friend, Professor Jon Western, the Five College Professor of International Relations. From the beginning, Jon was both a moral and intellectual leader among the PhD students at Columbia. His careful judgment set the tone among us.
I feel very honoured to be appointed a Marshall Commissioner. There are few things I am as passionate about as the kind of educational opportunity and enduring links between the US and the U.K. that the Marshall Scholarships make possible.
COP27: India can’t be expected to pay for climate sins of the West.
@samirsaran
articulates well the very powerful critique that is coming from the Global South.
“There has never been a greater betrayal by a president of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.” Liz Cheney, Republican. Wyoming.
Sir Kim Darroch's decision to resign will cut short otherwise endless hours, weeks, and months of highly corrosive and endlessly distracting politics between Washington and London. But a huge shame and definite setback to lose such a distinguished Ambassador in this post.
NEW:
@POTUS
just announced at
#UNGA
that in response to the global food crisis, the US will provide over $2.9 billion in new assistance to address food insecurity.
One article in
@guardian
by
@Freedland
and one in the
@FT
cite an early snapshot YouGov v early quick poll taken during events at the Capitol (45% of Republicans supported the rioters). Both missed the recent PBS poll. 80% of Republicans and 96% of Democrats opposed these events
Bloomberg and the NYT report that Biden has chosen Tony Blinken as Secretary of State. We recently hosted
@ABlinken
at
@ChathamHouse
to talk with
@PeterWestmacott
about US foreign policy in a post Covid world. You can watch the round table discussion here.
Surely the biggest news of the day. And timed just before the announcement of the new UK Prime Minister.
Russia won’t be sending gas to Europe until the “collective West” lift sanctions.
Unfortunately for those of us who were in attendance at this session, I suspect we all recognized that he was not in fact humiliated and carried a significant part of the audience much of the time
@ianbremmer
this one clip but doesn’t capture the overall tenor of the session
understandable schadenfreude:
indian audience laughs at russian foreign minister’s face for the regime’s lies about ukraine.
but we have a serious problem. russia humiliated on the global stage…and putin’s gotten himself in an ugly and dangerous corner.
RIP Robert Jervis. Scholar, teacher, mentor, friend. Always there and always engaged, till the end. He has left us, but his writings, and his memory, will be with us forever.
RIP Bob Jervis (1940-2021). Those of us who knew you were fortunate to benefit from your humor, wisdom, and unbounded intellectual curiosity. We will all miss the constant twinkle in your eyes.
Roland Paris, world class scholar and former Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau joins the Americas Programme at Chatham House. Tremendously impt to have leading Canadian voice join our team at this point in history. I am delighted.
@rolandparis
@ChathamHouse
Sitting at the Doha Forum listening to Russia FM Lavrov talk about multilateralism as the ‘objective course of history’ and critiquing the U.S. for its hypocrisy. We are really not at a great moment in this world today, on Human Rights Day.
All ten living former Secretaries of Defense have written a letter declaring the election over, calling for a peaceful transition of power, and reminding us that civilian and military officials are accountable for their actions. My comment with
@RobynCurnowCNN
Listen to our panel on John Ikenberry’s “three worlds” and the future of the liberal international order with Mick Cox, John Ikenberry,
@AyseZarakol
, Rohan Mukherjee and me
We’re moving very quickly here at Dartmouth with emergency graduate admissions for the displaced Ukrainian scholars. This is often the most flexible, the least bureaucratic line of admissions with precedents. I encourage you to do this. We’re also working on undergrad & faculty.
Tremendously encouraging to hear news of the very, very strong student interest in studying Politics and International Relations
@SOAS
this year. A real sign that young people understand the value of globalism and diversity. And also how much is at stake in politics today...
Dominant focus on struggle to defend Ukraine and what will be the future of US transatlantic engagement. Uneasy balance and positioning between Ukraine and the war in the Middle East. At times vying for attention. Very few trying to connect the dots between these two major wars.
@raisinadialogue
US officials more confused than ever as ever as to who they are and who they wish to be in a transatlantic context. Junior Nebraska Senator (my home state) unwittingly drew an equivalence between defense of Ukraine and U.S. Southern Border migration crisis
@Chietigj
@samirsaran
@orfonline
At a time when the world’s most powerful nation has one political party that is turning its back and it’s followers on internationalism, the ambition to bring people across a nation on board an agenda defined by climate, women, and widening digital access is an admirable.
Americans are wildly overoptimistic about chances of upward social mobility. Europeans are pessimistic. Actual mobility higher in Europe than in the US.
Farewell Ambassador Ventura
@JulianVenturaV
. We
@ChathamHouse
have valued your enthusiasm and your tremendous support. We wish you the very best of luck in your role as Mexico’s new Deputy Foreign Minister.
"Trump is becoming politically toxic in Europe. Nobody wants to be seen smiling with him..." great piece by
@StevenErlanger
. With some important facts, for example that of the $603 bn that the US spends on defense, only $31bn goes to Europe.
Decision Desk HQ projects that
@JoeBiden
has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273.
Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States of America.
Race called at 11-06 08:50 AM EST
All Results:
As the
@ChathamHouse
London Conference draws to a close, a shout out to my all time top of the charts colleague and friend Kamil Hussein, deputy director external relations, who will be leaving us after a decade during which we literally could not have done it without him.
Read the first in our new
@ChathamHouse
series
America’s Global Role: The View from Abroad
The road back to effective multilateralism: A view from Mexico by
@JulianVenturaV
Dep Sec of Foreign Affairs (2019-2020) and Mexico's UK Ambassador (2017-2019)
Not every day that John Mearsheimer, Margaret MacMillan, Lawrence Freedman and Anand Menon speak
@ChathamHouse
. But it is that kind of day today. First up is : The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams vs International Realities via
@ChathamHouse
Vice President Biden takes the lead in Georgia, and Stacey Abrams deserves a big shoutout. She founded The New Georgia Project in 2013, to register minority voters and has continued to be a leading force for widening voter participation.
@ChathamHouse
hosted Stacey Abrams in 2019
Biden’s claim that autocracies are growing weaker also a standout. At a time when most people focus on the decline of democracy globally (16 years running). Intelligent recasting of terms of the discussion. More autocracies, sure, but are they strong..
Senator Ted Cruz calls out the attack at the Capitol as an act of terrorism, but remains absolutely silent on the role of President Trump in encouraging those involved.
The attack at the Capitol was a despicable act of terrorism and a shocking assault on our democratic system. We must come together and put this anger and division behind us. We must, and I am confident we will, have a peaceful and orderly transition of power. My full statement:
Tough to listen to Tony Blinken (at 14.16 on the video)describe the mechanisms the US had in place to predict and prevent spread of pandemics. The US had a robust CDC process in China, and an expert embedded with the Chinese disease control agency, all taken apart by Trump.