My op ed in tomorrow’s Financial Times based on the
@ChathamHouse
@BrookingsInstitution
book I edited, Reclaiming Human Rights in a Changing World Order.
An analysis of 4.8 million tweets from 639,000 different Twitter accounts that used hashtags in favor of the protests in Chile were found to mostly originate from Venezuelan, Nicaraguan and Cuban accounts via
@LatAmGoesGlobal
It’s official. I’ll be senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House London starting August 5. From there I will continue to work with my rocking team GlobalAmericans on exciting new projects & teaching at Columbia. Exciting.
I rarely tweet personal things-except for the snarky ones. My mother, the woman who inspired me, passed this morning. She once said: "be nice to the people you meet on the way up, or you'll meet them on the way down." I hope I've done her justice.
A refreshing and rare sign of non-partisan commitment to democracy: Honduran, Nicaraguan, Venezuelan leaders not invited to inauguration in El Salvador
My article in
@TheWorldToday
"Nicaragua’s slide into totalitarianism happened ‘gradually, then suddenly’ – to borrow a phrase from Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises. But it was always predictable.'"
My 13-year-old son on a playdate starts talking about Venezuela's kleptocurrency with his 2 friends. One friend confuses Venice with Venezuela, and my son says, "Well, technically they are both sinking."
W/ Mexico (AMLO’s) recognition of Maduro & refusal to support human rights & democracy (ojo AMLO called for international support for same when he thought he lost 2006 elections) not only is Mexico ceding regional leadership it’s also siding w/ a rogues’ gallery of governments.
This is weird. 24 hours later and Maduro still hasn't stepped down after this very, clear strong Tweet. Maybe he didn't see it? Does he not know that the US is strongest when it Tweets threats?
Le pido al General
@vladimirpadrino
al presidente de la AN
@jorgerpsuv
y al diputado
@dcabellor
darle una condecoración a la guardia del pueblo.
Nuestra FANB jamás le dará la mano a quien pidió una intervención militar para este pueblo
#Patria
It's Global Americans' four-year anniversary today. As part of that we're rolling out a new logo, and soon a new initiative on young Latin American writers.
My op ed on the White House's ridiculous nomination for the IDB: Latin America must reject Trump’s attempt to leave his mark on the region’s crucial development bank
Excited to be back in Argentina. Hard to believe it was 25 years ago I was here doing my dissertation research. Now staying @ Hotel Madero in an area that was a run down & dangerous before. Not to be confused w/ the Hotel Maduro w/ no electricity, running water or food.
Am I the only person worrying that COVID-isolation has made me weirder? I mean, I've also been a little of an outlier socially, but has the lack of socialization just reinforced the weirder me? Surely I'm not the only person worried about this.
“I don’t know how else to support Bishop Álvarez other than to use my voice, to join in prayer (for his liberation). He has been kidnapped,” said
@BiancaJagger
#Nicaragua
As I said to the
@financialtimes
“Cuba policy has been held hostage to the need to get Menendez and Rubio on board for confirmations...It’s a tragedy and 11m people are suffering.” (Invitations to testify again before Senate probably not coming soon)
This war is separating the democrats from the autocrats (see also Bolsonaro). This may actually be a good thing over the long term; we see those who really are committed to sovereignty (popular & national) & freedom.
The
@CH_Americas
team out for a socially distanced coffee and walk through beautiful St James’s Park. Nice to remind myself that I’ve been talking to real people thru Zoom these past 7 months.
Our article in
@ForeignPolicy
: "The popular uprisings in Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, and Haiti have one thing in common: If history is any indicator, the outlook for genuine, lasting change is grim."
My piece in
@ForeignPolicy
: Talking about AMLO and Bolsonaro: "when it comes to populism, the ideological spectrum bends around until the left and right meet at the intolerant, policy-free extreme."
My article in
@ForeignPolicy
on… well, the title pretty much says it all but also on the long term costs for Venezuelan debt & assets & western interests of US sanctions.
@ChathamHouse
After a grueling but satisfying semester I’ve finished the last leg of my NYC-London commute. Teaching
@ColumbiaSIPA
was a great honor. As of now I’m full time
@ChathamHouse
#newadventure
.
The issue isn't whether AMLO is hard or moderate left... it's that he's a populist. Just listen to his discourse. As Chavez and Trump have shown, populists come in all ideologies, & are equally disrespectful of checks & balances & pluralism.
Am I the only one worried that Senator Marco Rubio seems to have gone from being the Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere to now going to the Colombia-Venezuela border and looking like General Patton? This is unprecedented for a US Senator.
Ironic given presence of Cuban doctors in their own country: Exodus of Venezuelan doctors has become unexpected boon for Latin America’s poor via
@business
🔴
#CNNPrime
| AHORA: "Sólo le puedo decir al canciller de Nicaragua que nosotros sí respetamos a su pueblo, y lo respetamos tanto que le ofrecimos nacionalidad a 94 nicaragüenses que ellos expatriaron", dijo el presidente Boric.
📡 En vivo
An excellent, insightful piece by my old friend
@MarkFeierstein
(I actually haven't known him that long. He's just old.) Guaidó is the right choice in Venezuela, even if Trump likes him
Todos los que excluyen a la CIDH y a la ONU, de sus países no solo lo hacen porque no quieren saber de derecho internacional humanitario sino porque desencadenan dictaduras y genocidios. Son los Videla, Netanyahu y Pinochets de hoy son los aprendices de Hitler.
My official coming out party (so to speak)
@ChathamHouse
. For those in London hope you can make it. Latin America: Shifting Political Dynamics and the Implications for the Global System
@ColumbiaSIPA
What followed this flawed election was disgraceful But pointing only to 1 element of report to indicate that conclusion was flawed is like saying cigarettes may be ok b/c tar isn’t as bad as we thought “In Bolivia, A Bitter Election is Being Revisited”
As Russian troops have allegedly landed in Venezuela, it's worth reading this great piece by .
@xarchano
. "The bear comes to the West: The Russian agenda in Latin America"
Delighted and honored to accept an offer today to be a non-resident fellow at
@BakerInstitute
's
@BakerLatAm
initiative. Great scholars, great work and a great institution.
Word has it Raul is reconsidering his Venezuela policy now. Space Mountain and Pirates of the Caribbean are irresistible to any autocrat. Freedom will now come soon to Venezuela, I believe.
US declares Raúl Castro "ineligible for entry" to the country,. He was of course a regular visitor to Disneyland and Las Vegas. This will really hurt....
Restoring Venezuela's collapsed electricity sector is key to addressing the humanitarian crisis, restoring public services, recovering economic growth & renewing citizens' faith On December 7 we present our paper abt current conditions & recommendations
Can we please stop hearing about the damn hippos? There are so many modern, bigger stories to tell that don’t traffic in narco-porn: Fear and love surround Escobar's hippos thriving in Colombia
Finally sitting down to review the 400+ pages of the proofs of my forthcoming edited book “Reclaiming Human Rights in a Changing World Order” to be published by
@ChathamHouse
&
@BrookingsInst
Insights Series. Due out this August.
He offends foreign diplomats, speaks in jargon (“nearshoring” is not a strategy for development— it’s just a buzz word) and has led the diplomatic malpractice of this administration in Latin America. Is this really the guy Latin American & Caribbean govts want
@the_IDB
?
The central problem w/ this article is that is assumes all of the countries have functional party systems & voters are making decisions based on programmatic offerings--let alone leftist proposals.
First time back at Chatham House since lockdown March 2020. It felt strange. So much has happened since—personal life, work, the news, the world in general. I was also reminded how much time I saved not commuting-how I wasted it. Time I could have spent learning the 🪗
Am I the only one sensing this could be a pre-cursor for calling for allowing presidential re-election? "Mexico president proposes recall referendum in March 2021"
My piece in
@ForeignPolicy
: The region once acted as a bloc in world affairs. But as Costa Rica’s bid to join the U.N. Human Rights Council shows, Venezuela’s isolation in the region:
Oliver Stone speaking out from Bogota about Maduro, Uribe, Trump & lots more. Says hyperinflation in Venezuela is a “tragedy” born of poor economic management but in Colombia activists are murdered. “Someone like me who is outspoken would be killed in Colombia, not Venezuela”
Tomorrow is the 20th anniversary of Hugo Chavez's election. What do you get someone for the 20th anniversary of the Bolivarian Revolution? A devalued bolivar? A devalued country? Misery?
My op ed in today's
@NYT
. Is Biden administration's plan just to keep slapping more sanctions on top of the 300+ people already sanctioned in LatAm or does it have a plan? The US needs a thorough review of their efficacy, impact & ways to leverage them.
On my way to give a talk on social movements & protests in
#LatAm
My first time in a suit in more than a year. I wouldn’t say I’ve gained weight but my suit pants look more like they belong in a ‘70s disco in Brooklyn than the Royal College of Defence Studies.
A powerful reminder of why credible election monitoring is important, perhaps now more than ever (Would UNASUR have served! No) “Bolivia's Morales to call fresh election after OAS audit”
I'm curious, what part of a 58-year embargo that has failed to produce regime change in Cuba is worth repeating? "Trump expands Venezuela sanctions into embargo"
Great article: After the Centro Democrático party sought to interfere in the United States presidential election, there have been further efforts to interject themselves into the domestic politics of other countries...."
Cooking Mexican food in London is tough There are things I took for granted in my Brooklyn bodega I was prepared having ordered proper tortillas weeks in advance But a panicked last minute search for guajillo 🌶s only produced confused looks in Tesco. Turkish 🌶s poor substitute
To all those hypocritical conservatives who love to cite HRW on Venezuela, Nicaragua & Cuba, please take note: Defending human rights knows no ideology: "Brazil: An Urgent Call to Protect Rights"
In a new initiative
@ChathamHouse
is producing hip video explainers on topics in foreign policy This one is on human rights and the current threats to international norms and systems. (The hipness of the graphics does raise the question of why I’m in them.
@chanupeiris
I get why)
Human rights are not policies that can be overturned. They are not granted by governments.
They belong to everyone as human beings.
@chanupeiris
(
@CHIntLaw
) and
@ChrisSabatini
(
@CH_Americas
) warn these rights are now under threat.
An excellent piece by
@ignandez
: “Even though Maduro has not conceded defeat, a relatively competitive election has brought Maduro’s unpopularity into…”
Some day—when I have time—I would like to conduct a content analysis of news stories on the positive changes in Colombia since the ‘80s vs stories about narco hippos. I suspect latter would sadly represent a not insignificant proportion of the total.
Says
@MoisesNaim
in his brilliant
@ForeignAffairs
article about the illicit activities in countries like Venezuela, Turkey, Russia and others "it is organized crime as statecraft, coordinated by [...] governments...”
I love getting hate mail from Maduro supporters. "Mr. Sabatini: I watched your interview about Venezuela & I found
your intervention pathetic. Who is paying you to say the kind of
rubbish you spewed out of mouth? The Maduro government is the only
duly elected government in VZ."
Call me an optimist; I don’t think Maduro’s re-imposition/coronation is a done deal We’re still waiting for final results, responsible democratic govts are holding judgement, CNE site is down & people haven’t reacted civically yet. I suspect there’s a lot going on behind scenes
The e-book of Reclaiming Human Rights in a Changing World Order is out. For those interested in global affairs and human rights (or in need of a good sleep aid without the side effects of Ambien) You can download it here.
Latin American governments own it now. Will the new president be able to deliver the fresh funding he promised? Will he deliver the respect & humanity for Latin American citizens that his government has consistently denied them?
How exactly did Chomsky move from discredited linguist to philosopher? And would any of these guys be willing to live in Venezuela? High-profile activists slam U.S., Canadian sanctions on Venezuela
Just a reminder: those brave U.S. diplomats who are staying in Venezuela are State Department employees who are officially furloughed w/ their colleagues over Trump's intransigence over a Wall: Nicolas Maduro gives US diplomats 72 hours to abandon country
Could my colleague
@JeffDSachs
be having second thoughts for signing on to this this shoddy example of social science (let alone economics)? A quick glance at oil production levels & credible reporting on corruption shoots holes in this- let alone spurious correlation/causation.
Hmm... their report explicitly says “We find that the sanctions have inflicted (...) very serious harm to human life and health, including an estimated more than 40,000 deaths...” & no mention of role of Venezuelan govt in crisis.
Where has the causal tone gone???